Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo's 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation. We would like to inform you that attendees will be on a listen-only mode during the presentation, after which we will begin the Q&A session when further instructions will be provided. This presentation is being recorded, and simultaneous translation is available by clicking on the interpretation button. For those listening in English, you have the option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking on "Mute Original Audio." Before proceeding, we would like to reiterate that statements made during this conference call regarding the company's prospects are based on Rumo's executive board's beliefs and assumptions, as well as current information available to the organization. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur.
Events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the industries in which the company operates, and other factors may cause results to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Filipe Saraiva, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Saraiva, you may begin the presentation.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Rumo's 4th Q. Earnings Call. As usual, let's kick off the presentation on page three with the ESG highlights. I would like to highlight a couple of awards we got in the quarter. We are the first and only company in the Brazilian logistics industries to join Dow Jones Sustainability Index in both the world and emerging market portfolios. In addition, we are also part of the B3 Sustainability Index for the third year in a row. It's worth mentioning our safety performance in the year, with a 27% decrease year-over-year on railway accidents. Rumo is a benchmark in safety standards compared to Class 1 railways in the U.S. and Canada. On the following page, I will present the highlights of the quarter.
Once again, the competitiveness of the railway solution was a highlight in the quarter, boosting our margins and resulting in the all-time high transported volume. Our operation was challenged due to several external events that jeopardized the productivity of the railway system. We have delivered a proper response to these events with a high level of engagement with public authorities, reinforcing the resilience and coordination capacity of our team. The strong demand for transportation has driven an earlier-than-usual commercialization of capacity for the 24th season. By the end of last year, Rumo has already booked most of its capacity. I also would like to register the solid performance in 2023. We have delivered BRL 5.7 billion in EBITDA and a net income of BRL 722 million. We have moved forward with our expansion plan in the quarter.
The construction works in Mato Grosso are ramping up, and we have concluded the operational transition from the former Port of Paranaguá to FIPS, which stands for Internal Railway at the Port of Santos. FIPS will be an important driver of development for the railway that provides access to the major terminals at Santos Port. Lastly, a couple of days ago, we have announced a partnership with DP World to build a greenfield port terminal in Santos. The new facility will increase in 12 billion tons the port capacity to handle agricultural commodities, therefore unlocking the value of our investment in the railway. On the next page, I will present the market share figures. Although we have delivered an all-time high volume, the market has grown even more. Thus, our market share in Mato Grosso was 45% in the quarter, and our market share at the Santos Port was 53%.
In Goiás State, market share was 12% due to our cargo allocation strategy, which has favored longer distances. In the Southern operation, there was a different allocation of the company's volumes due to our choice of more profitable routes and cargoes. As a result, our market share decreased at both Paranaguá and São Francisco do Sul ports. Let's move now to the next page, to the operational indicators. Key operational indicators have improved in the quarter. The transit time between Rondonópolis transshipment terminal and Santos Port has reduced to 90 hours. Moreover, the dwell time in Santos has reduced to 17 hours. Regarding energy efficiency, the result was flat in the quarter. On the next page, we will discuss our operational results.
In the 4th quarter, the volume grew by 9%, mainly driven by the transportation of agricultural commodities and the improvement in safety and traffic conditions in the Baixada Santista region. In the Northern operation, the growth was even higher, reaching 13%. The increase in the grain portfolio, in addition to the growth in fertilizers and fuel portfolios, were the main highlights. However, in the Southern operation, there was a 4% decrease. The growth in grains, sugar, and fertilizer was more than offset by lower volumes of fuel and pulp. On the next page, I will present revenues and yields. The competitiveness of the railway solution and the strong demand for transportation boosted our pricing power in the quarter. Yields have increased 11% year-on-year, despite the drop in fuel prices. In the full year, there was a double-digit growth in yields on both Northern and Southern operations.
The consolidated yield grew by 14% in the full year. On the next page, I will present our EBITDA breakdown. As you may see in the charts, the expansion in margins has driven our EBITDA growth in the quarter. The expansion is a result of the competitiveness of the railway solution, as I have mentioned before. On the next page, you may see our financial results and net income. Our debt exposure is mainly floating CDI, which is the local interest rates benchmark. Therefore, the decrease in interest rates had a positive effect on our net financial results. Net income in the quarter was BRL 1 million. It's important to emphasize that the non-recurring gain in the sale of the T16 and T19 terminals in Santos last year has boosted Q4 2022 net income. In the full year, Rumo's net income was close to BRL 700 million.
On the following page, I will cover our debt profile. By the end of last year, our financial leverage, measured by the net debt to EBITDA ratio, was 1.8x . It is a flat result versus the previous quarter. We have a solid liquidity profile with a cash position of BRL 8.6 billion and a limited impact of debt maturities in the upcoming years. On the next page, I will present our investments. Total investment in the quarter was BRL 1.1 billion, out of which BRL 400 million was in sustaining CapEx and BRL 800 million was in expansion CapEx. The investments in the greenfield railway in Mato Grosso are a main expansion project amounted to BRL 257 million in the quarter. We continue to make progress with the construction of the new railway in Mato Grosso.
There is an ongoing lane-moving works in 35 km, alongside several special structures construrction. We` will now discuss the guidance on the following page. We have delivered on promises in 2023, and our actual results were within the estimates presented to the market. On the beginning of February, we released the guidance for the 2024 fiscal year. The new estimates illustrate our expectation of another growing year. On the next page, I will present the outlook for the soybean market. Estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop indicate a 4% decrease in production, with a total amount of 152 million tons. Export volumes are expected at 95 million tons. In Mato Grosso, the production forecast suggests an 8 million tons decrease. The agricultural productivity in the state was impacted by weather conditions. Exports from Mato Grosso are estimated at 24 million tons.
On the next page, you will look at the corn outlook. The Brazilian corn production in the current season is estimated at 120 million tons, with 45 million of exports. In the state of Mato Grosso, our estimates suggest a production of around 44 million tons, with exports at 24 million tons. The rebalancing of inventories in the state is expected to partially offset the lower production compared to the previous year. So, this is the end of my presentation. We are now ready to address any questions you may have. Thank you.
Today, we have with us Mr. Beto Abreu, Pedro Palma, Rafael Bergman, and Filipe Saraiva. Before we begin the Q&A session, we would like to invite Mr. Beto Abreu to deliver his opening remarks. Mr. Abreu, you may proceed. Good morning, everyone. As you know, today is my last conference call with Rumo, but I wouldn't want to leave without sharing some information with you first. My first point is about the long term. Our current portfolio is absolutely robust and in line with the company's strategy. After concluding the Paulista Network, the Central Network, also doing the FIPS at the Port of Santos, our expansion project in Lucas do Rio Verde, and last week's deal for yet another port solution at the Port of Santos ensures a very robust portfolio for the company's long term.
It also shows an absolute discipline in capital allocation and assertive decisions in building business based on our long-term view and strategy for the business. In the short term, we believe in a constructive environment in 2024, as we have announced, in line with the company's guidance and constructive for 2025 as well. We do have demand for grains. Although we heard a lot about crop failure, we have gone back to volume and demand levels we had in 2022. So, 2023 was an outlier. And the company's strategy to provide the most competitive logistics solution where we operate is completely ready to meet this growing grains demand and to implement our strategy to continue to grow. The third point I'd like to share with you has to do with the current transition at the company.
I think that more than a robust portfolio that comes from a clear strategy and projects that ensure the companies have a very long-term cash flow, our team is highly qualified to execute and continue with this long-term plan at the company. I'd like to take this opportunity to welcome Pedro. Today is my last day with the company. Pedro was the architect of a large part of this portfolio that has been built, not only leading the commercial side of the business but also the business side. He's been with the company for 11 years in different positions, in different areas, and with the colleagues that have been part of this team over the last few years. I am absolutely certain he will be leading this company in an exemplary fashion from now on. Pedro, you know how happy I am to turn it over to you.
I am happy and absolutely sure you are going to do a fantastic job. I wish you and the team great success on this new cycle of the company. Last but not least, I'd like to thank you all for your partnership over the years. The way you work helps us to improve the way we look at our business and to be humble enough to adjust certain things that we're analyzing. The job you do is extremely important to any listed company so that it can continue to improve. We must always be aware of our competencies but also know when to make adjustments when we don't get things right. So, thank you so much for your partnership over the last few years. Now, Pedro is going to be leading the call, and Pedro, Rafael, and Filipe will be answering your questions. So, I'll say goodbye once again.
Thank you, and good luck on this new cycle. We will now begin the Q&A session. To ask a question, please press raise hand. If your question has been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on put hand down. We kindly ask that you ask only one question so everyone gets a chance to ask a question. If we have enough time at the end, we will start another round of questions. Questions in writing via the Q&A icon will be answered after the conference by the Investor Relations team. Our first question is from Mr. Pedro Bruno from XP Investimentos. Mr. Bruno, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. It's about two different topics: volume and volume plans, pace over the year, and also if you can talk about your investments in Lucas do Rio Verde.
There was an acceleration closer to the end of last year. If you could share with us how you see that pace and what the expectation is for 2025. But on volumes, with the current scenario of farm selling being delayed for soybean, how have you been dealing with that situation? We've seen data for January and February. We know that this data is in line with the scenario you shared with us when you provided us with the guidance in February. But we imagine that traders and farmers and producers have their obligations to deliver logistics commitments. You know, farmers and producers have their storage commitments. There has been an increase in soybean production since yesterday in Mato Grosso. So, how do you see this volume pace for 2024? Thank you. Good morning, Pedro. This is Pedro. Thank you for your question. And thanks, everyone, for joining us.
It's my first earnings release call, and I'm very happy to be here now leading the organization and with this very tough mission to replace Beto. As for the 2024 volumes and pace, as you know, we started 2024 with a good contracting position despite the volume reduction scenario and some crop failure issues. For our demand and for the occupation of our system, we're feeling okay, and the occupation of capacity at the levels we had imagined. To be specific, another adjustment point, and this is completely natural, it's business as usual, but there's absolutely nothing that is outside our usual routine. So, I can safely say we're very confident about the figures for the year and that we will keep the guidance that we have shared with us.
I have no major concerns when it comes to using our system and keeping the guidance that we shared with you. Hi, Pedro. This is Rafael. I'll answer your question about investment pace. The Lucas do Rio Verde project is progressing very well in line with our plan. We started construction at the end of 2022, and we made it clear that 2023 was going to be a mobilization year, and that indeed happened with investment about BRL 400 million in 2023. And in 2024, we'll have full mobilization of the project. In the presentation, we saw 35 km mobilization in 2023. We're now up to 80 km mobilization in terms of rail infrastructure, five special structures that are ongoing. One of them is already ready. So, this is key in order to speed up that project.
It's going very well, both in terms of fieldwork mobilization as well as management by our internal team, because this is obviously a key project for the company. That's great. Thank you. And good luck, Pedro, on this new cycle. And good luck, Beto, on your transition. Thanks. Our next question is from Mr. Guilherme Mendes from JP Morgan. Mr. Mendes, you may proceed. Hello. Good morning, Pedro, Beto, Bergman, Saraiva. Good luck, Pedro. Good luck, Beto, on your new challenges. Pedro, could you comment on your term as the new CEO? Although you've been with the company for a long time and you've been following up on investment cycles, how do you see the organization over this next growth cycle? And if you could also share what you see happening over the next few years. Thank you. Great, Guilherme. Thank you for the question.
Going straight to the point, Guilherme, as Beto said, and based on my journey, I have been working for the company and building with my colleagues our current strategy. So, I really believe it to be a solid and winning strategy. So, we don't see any change in direction at the moment. My main mandate is to deliver what we have committed to expand our network in Mato Grosso, so to ensure that we get the competitiveness this expansion in Lucas do Rio Verde will give us. That's a key priority for us. It's also a priority to make sure that all the investments that are being made, whether they are in renewing the Paulista Network or increasing capacity across the railway system, need to happen to ensure origination in Mato Grosso, Goiás, Tocantins, São Paulo, can be sent to the Port of Santos.
Also, to make sure that we're looking at the whole network in an integrated fashion, to make sure that we don't have any future plateau next that will stop Rumo from growing. Just like the project we've announced recently with DPW is an example of that, we will continue to look at how to increase capacity to make sure that our system is fluid enough to make sure we can move everything we need. When it comes to everyday business, we will continue to be obsessive about safety. Our company has a robust operating cycle and asset base, so we need to make sure that rail and personal safety are a key value to us. We need to ensure management excellence across our asset base.
And I'm talking about operating excellence, world-class management excellence in our pricing process, in our management process, in the institutional and regulatory environments, across the ecosystem. And by doing that in our expansion process and everyday business management with utmost financial discipline. So, we're going to manage our business, build value for the future responsibly. And I am absolutely confident not only in the strategy we have been building, which can and has been optimized over time, but is already solid and robust. We have plenty of deliverables for this cycle, and we are fully confident that we have the right team, we have the right people, and I am absolutely certain that Rumo will continue to be a success story when it comes to expansion, growth, and building the infrastructure for Brazilian agribusiness. Thank you, Pedro, and good luck. The next question is from Mr. Alberto Valerio from UBS.
Mr. Valerio, you may proceed. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question and welcome, Pedro. Thank you, Beto, for the time spent together. Hi, Saraiva. My question is about Ultrapar having acquired a relevant stake in the Hidrovias do Brasil and also a former member of Cosan working for the company. Marcos Lutz, what's your opinion about what that might mean to Rumo in the future? Do you think this could become a more rational competitor, or do you think you might have more competition in the north arc? How do you see what Ultrapar has been doing? Hi, Alberto. This is Rafael. It's a very natural thing to do. We're very neutral about it. I think I've talked about it to a few of you. We have a very strong thesis to provide competitive and efficient logistics for business, and it continues to grow.
Logistics operators that have an appetite for investing obviously share the same thesis. So, at the end of the day, this is a thriving market which can accommodate rational investments. And that is what we have been doing over the last few years, and it's what we will continue to do. Okay? Thank you, Rafael. Our next question is from Ms. Fernanda Recchia from BTG Pactual. Ms. Recchia, you may proceed. Hi, everyone. Good morning. I have a question about 2025. I know it's a bit early, but can you share with us how you see, especially in negotiations? I think 2024 obviously will be a high-yield year, but if you could talk a little bit about 2025, if you have any opinion on what will happen in terms of yields, it would be very helpful. Thank you. Hi, Fernanda. Thank you for the question. This is Pedro.
In summary, I feel very positive about 2025. Looking at projections for 2025, obviously, production will be even higher than what we see for 2024. So, when we start negotiations for 2025, and let me reiterate, this is not happening now. This will only begin in the second half of the year. There's no need, and we have no intention of starting any negotiations at the present time. Projections for 2025 are for a production pickup because there has been a reduction in volumes and crop failure, as Beto said. In fact, we've gone back to 2022 levels. So, if in 2024 we've already got enough demand to use our full capacity, and in 2025, we'll have an even higher volume, and there shouldn't be any increase in capacity in any other agribusiness logistics area.
So, it looks like there will be very robust demand for Rumo's logistics system, which is the most competitive and the best position to meet exports to Asia. So, the scenario looks very positive in terms of pricing for 2025 when the time comes for negotiation, which obviously is not something we're going to be discussing now, only in the second half of the year. But I'm very optimistic and confident that things will be very positive in 2025. That's great. Thank you. And good luck on this new endeavor. And thanks for the great job, Beto, and good luck on your new endeavor. Have a great day, everyone. Our next question is from Mr. Rogério Araújo from Bank of America. Mr. Araújo, you may proceed. Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me? Yes, we can now, but you got cut off. Thank you for taking my question.
Good luck, Pedro. Good luck, Beto. About the Port of Santos. First, this Embraport terminal, will it be an unbranded terminal? And if so, how to attract relevant cargo quickly in that scenario? Perhaps you could talk a little bit about your experience in the terminal that you sold 80% last year, which was operating at full capacity. And there are other unbranded terminals at the Port of Santos that are not. And still on the Port of Santos, if you could talk a little bit about your main projects, including new terminals, your COFCO terminal, the two loops on the margins, and anything else you might want to add. How long do you think it will take to conclude those projects, and how do they fit with the unlocking potential for the port? Thank you. Hi, this is Pedro Palma. About our agreement with DPW.
Yes, it will be an unbranded terminal. So, we will be ensuring capacity for all current and potential users of our rail system. You talked about other terminals at the Port of Santos that are not operating at full capacity. That doesn't apply to any terminals working with our system, because when we look at the potential to generate demand by the Rumo system, we are absolutely confident that it will work at full capacity with this new terminal, not only based on our efficient logistics, but also because this project with DPW is in the best location at the Port of Santos, in the right margin, and rail access is absolutely productive. There's an exclusive loop for that terminal, so I am absolutely confident that it will be the most productive terminal in the Port of Santos. The demand for this terminal is practically guaranteed.
It will definitely take up that capacity. Now, looking at the whole Port of Santos ecosystem, moving on to the second part of your question, our challenge is to continue what we have been doing. For instance, we've just recently built the FIPS structure so that we could have more speed and faster execution. Some structural projects need to take place within the internal Santos rail. For instance, the Outeirinhos loop line, the renewal of Valongo Yard to make sure that the exit of empty cars can be more efficient, the Praia area. So, there's plenty of investments that need to be made and concluded at the Port of Santos. There are also other investments that are already being made over time. You mentioned one of them, the implementation of the STS-11, which is probably the most transformational terminal, to go into operation between the DP World terminal.
That project is going full steam ahead. It's on track, and we're confident that it will soon add even more capacity to the rail system. So, that's part of our everyday business. Within our own structure, at FIPS or through partnerships with our clients, we will continue to ensure that capacity at Santos continues to increase, and we'll continue to do that every day, every month, every year. I hope it never comes to an end because we believe demand for exports via Santos will continue to grow, and we truly believe that the Santos system is the most competitive to export Brazilian agricultural commodities to its main export market, which is Asia. So, we will continue to expand in Santos for many years to come. That's very clear. Thank you. Our next question is from Mr. Filipe Nielsen from Citi. Mr. Nielsen, you may proceed. Good morning.
Thank you for answering my question, and congratulations on your results. Good luck to the team on this transition. I have a follow-up question about CapEx. So, we know that Lucas do Rio Verde is moving forward. As you said, you also have Paulista Network projects that are ongoing. Now, there's a new terminal project. In terms of pipeline and CapEx curve, do you expect to have a wider curve for some projects because the terminal project is a joint investment that is happening at the same time as Lucas do Rio Verde? So, how do you envision fitting all these projects into your CapEx curve, and how will your leveraging interact with all these expectations? Thank you. Hi, Felipe. Thank you for your question. This is Rafael. We have some ongoing investment blocks.
As you know, we have the Paulista Network investments, which are key and very strategic for us to continue to increase capacity within this network. That's where all the Midwest cargo is moved through. So, investments are ongoing according to plan. Everything we negotiated in a recent deal, which is now being signed, is extremely important. We also have the Mato Grosso expansion project. It's in its first phase, and the terminal will be going into operation in 2026. So, that's the first investment block, which combines the first terminal in the Mato Grosso expansion and this first cycle of growth at the Santos terminal, including FIPS and the terminal. As for the Mato Grosso expansion project, it will continue. It will increase competitiveness as we increase RTK, and it will also increase origination capacity for the system.
So, that's why it's so important to look to the midterm and to consider the second block, as Pedro said. Our DP World project will address this second Santos block, which has to do with increasing competitiveness and increasing our origination capacity. We have the right capital structure to go through this investment cycle. I think you've seen the data reported at the end of last year, 1.8%. If you look at our mid-guidance figures for 2024, considering the CapEx, I think you'll be able to conclude that this leveraging level throughout 2024, other than any atypical movements in cash flow, we have a higher leveraging level in 2024 compared to 2023. Now, if we look at the comfortable leveraging interval for Rumo between 2%-2.5%, we're operating below that interval. So, we have the right capital structure for that cycle.
That said, as we have done in the past, we talked about partners in T16, T19. You know, we sold 80%. Those are very natural things to happen as a part of our portfolio, including this new project that was announced on Monday. So, the pursuit for value accretion partnerships will continue. We do bring very large volumes to the system, so that generates interest. We'll look at different partnerships from different angles at the port terminal, but also as has happened before in transshipment terminals, as we saw happen in the North Network. So, our capital structure is perfect for that. We have different project blocks, obviously. We're flexible enough to make adjustments to speed up or slow down as required.
But right now, we have great capital structure right now, and we'll look for partnerships that can add value to the whole system, not just in terms of de-risking and cash consumption, but also to generate value to the system as a whole. So, we want to maximize the system's optimization, which is what Pedro was saying. That's great. Very clear. Thank you, and good luck on the transition. The next question is from Mr. Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI. You may go ahead, Mr. Mizusaki. Good morning. Congratulations, Pedro and Beto. Good luck at Suzano. I have a question about this, the 4PW project, Bergman. First, the DPW project. So, this is a greenfield project. Are you considering funding it in a competitive fashion? And it might increase the leveraging level for that project.
Also, on the same project, could you comment on how you see, now that you have the FIPS productivity, how efficient will this new terminal be compared to what we currently see at the Port of Santos? Thank you. Hi, Victor. This is Pedro. About the terminal's productivity compared to other terminals at the Port of Santos, let me reiterate that this terminal will be the most productive and efficient at the Port of Santos because of its location on the left margin. It will be the first terminal on the left margin, so it will be going into operation before. It's before the TGG terminal and other terminals that are on the left margin. So, it's a great geographical position for the rail system. It allows for greater efficiency.
Obviously, this is a greenfield project, so we're already designing the terminal using state-of-the-art technology and making the best use of the terminals and the port's geographical area. This will be a terminal for grains and fertilizers, so we'll have an exclusive loop line for that system. It will be highly efficient and will increase competitiveness in grain unloading and fertilizing loading. So, we'll be able to maximize fertilizer volume that is being delivered in Goiás and Mato Grosso. So, I am absolutely confident that this terminal will be highly productive, highly efficient, and one of the first terminals to operate at full capacity on that bank. I'll turn it over to Rafael to answer your first part of your question. Thank you, Victor. Following with Rumo's investment plan, we're looking at all competitive funding sources for that CapEx and specific pockets that have to do with infrastructure.
So, we'll look into all the different possibilities. Rumo's credit profile is quite robust in the domestic market. I think it's important to reiterate that. Our cost of debt is highly competitive. And let me mention here our last market operation, which we settled at the beginning of the week. We issued BRL 1.2 billion long 12 and 15 years with zero spread, NP +0% , and 10 basis points for the longer tranche. That's a result of our investment profile and the business risk profile. So, we've been able to get some very compelling funding sources. And we'll be able to do the same for specific projects, especially considering sources that are more closely related to the project you mentioned. Okay, thank you. The next question is from Mr. Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead, Mr. Amorim. Good morning.
Congratulations on the results, and thank you for taking my question. Could you talk about your CapEx outlook for the next two or three years? You're going towards BRL 5.5 billion for the year. So, I would imagine that the first phase of the Lucas expansion, when it goes into operation, will mean you'll have to invest in rolling stock. So, maybe you'll have to make even more investments in 2025 if you are to continue to build on the infrastructure and buy some rolling stock that you'll need for 2026 or not. Is there a different CapEx line that might decrease over the next few years as you ramp up that rolling stock CapEx? Just to get some color on this bridge for the first phase. Thank you. Hi, Bruno. No news.
We have our CapEx interval for the first phase of our Mato Grosso expansion project that is being implemented for the beginning of 2026. We're going to set our strategy for rolling stock and define the right time to get it into the system. This rolling stock will be here between 2025 and 2026. It's a CapEx line that is part of the project, and it needs to be implemented for the project to generate the benefits we expect. Obviously, the investments in the Paulista Network, we've already mentioned that. Now, we'll have to focus on speeding up the works at the Paulista Network, especially because of additional capacity. We'll have more CapEx going towards that. Our CapEx in 2022 for that was slightly less, 2022, 2023. We'll continue with the plan. No news.
Also, as we mentioned, our DP World project will start to be built as of next year. So, we won't be making any major investments in that project. So, it won't affect our Capex for the year. And then, we'll look at potential partners as the project is ongoing. Obviously, that will obviously affect Rumo's whole Capex. So, let me just confirm that. The BRL 4.5 billion Capex you mentioned for the first expansion phase for Lucas, does that include the rolling stock? No, it doesn't. No, it doesn't. Okay. And the investment in rolling stock, regardless of whether it's going to be made by you or a partner, how much would that be roughly? Well, Bruno, we mentioned an estimate depending on the actual capacity of each of the terminals we built. So, I think you can refer to that material.
Since we're still defining the terminal capacity, we haven't defined the rolling stock to be acquired yet. But you can refer to that material. Great. Thank you. May I ask another question? Yes, Bruno. Thank you. It's a quick one. You said there might be a 17%-20% drop in soybean and corn yield. I expect that won't change your volume guidance. But that said, when do you think that will start to trigger take-or-pay? 25%, 30%, 35%? When do you think there will be volume shortage in the system, especially for you because you're very well contracted? If you could give us some idea of what that number might be. I'm not sure I heard your entire question, but just to make clear what we see 2024 looking like, we're fully contracted. We're executing on the contract. We have some operating flexibility to either side.
So, we could maybe move some volume from one month to the next. But we don't see any changes happening. And considering the whole system, even with that drop in production compared to last year, the system is still being fully used under pressure. What happened last year, as you know, we used not only the first and the second most competitive routes, but also the third and the fourth. So, naturally, with the production adjustments this year, clients will use the less efficient routes of the system. But Rumo's role and Rumo's market share in Mato Grosso is roughly 40%-45%. At Goiás, it was below 20%. So, we have some pent-up demand for our system. I don't know if I've answered your question. Yeah, that's great. Thank you. Thanks for allowing me to ask a second question. The next question is from Ms.
Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley. Ms. Rizzo, you may go ahead. Hi, good morning. Can you hear me okay? Yes. Hi, Julia. Thank you. I've got a bureaucratic follow-up question. Any updates on fiscal incentives? Yes, no. And what can we expect when it comes to that? And any updates on your expectations for the West and South networks and your dealings with the government? Thank you, Julia. I'll start with the return of the West network. It's ongoing. No news there. But it's going according to plan. So, as soon as we have news, we'll share them with you. As for fiscal incentives for the North network, yes. The inland revenue has said yes, and so has SUDAM. So, that's part of our subsequent events. So, we're investing in our North system, which has to do with this tax treatment for 10 years.
Obviously, as the project moves forward with the expansion, we'll be discussing these new investments and whether they can fall within the same tax scheme. That will happen over time, not now. Great. Thank you. The Q&A session is concluded. We would now like to hand the floor back to Mr. Rafael Bergman for his closing remarks. Thanks, everyone, for joining our earnings release call. I'd like to thank our shareholders for their trust. That's it for our earnings release call. Rumo's conference call is now concluded. Thank you for joining, and have a great day.