Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo Conference Call to discuss the Lucas do Rio Verde and Cuiabá extension project. Today with us, we have Mr. Beto Abreu, Rumo CEO, Mr. Ricardo Lewin, CFO and IRO, and Mr. Gustavo Rosa, Investor Relations and Treasury director. We would like to inform you that during the company's presentation, all participants, you only be able to listen to the call, and we'll then begin the question and answer session when further instructions will be given. In case you need any assistance during the conference, please request the operator's help by pressing star zero. We also would like to inform you that the conference call will be presented in English by the company's management, and there will be simultaneous translation to Portuguese. This event is also being broadcast simultaneously on the internet via webcast.
Before proceeding, we would like to mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Rumo's management and all information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, because they relate to future events, and therefore depends on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that conditions relate to macroeconomic conditions, industry, and other factors could also cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Ricardo Lewin. Please, Mr. Lewin, you may proceed.
Good afternoon, everyone. In this presentation, we'll be giving further details on the Lucas do Rio Verde project, which is going to be far the most important driver for our future growth. We will be covering regulatory and environmental framework, project phasing and volume, and market rationale. On the next chart, I will start with the regulatory side. Over the past few years, we accomplished important milestones in our regulatory agenda. In 2019, we won the first railway auction in Brazil after a long period without new railways. In 2020, we early renewed Malha Paulista until 2058 by committing to double its capacity over the next 10 years. On September 20th, we have signed with Mato Grosso State the authorization agreement, allowing us to build the extension to Cuiabá and Lucas do Rio Verde.
For some years, we worked intensively to obtain regulatory approval from both the federal government and the Mato Grosso state government. In October 2020, state government approved an amendment in its local constitution, allowing regional authorization for railways. After this approval, the process for the authorization of a local railway evolved quickly due to the great interest of the state in having more railways. Rumo, which had already been studying a potential extension project from Rondonópolis to Lucas do Rio Verde, was the only company to present a project for the railway request by public call by the government of Mato Grosso.
This is a concrete project in addition to being regulatorily safe, since along the process, Mato Grosso governor and senators signed a cooperation agreement with the federal government in order to make sure that all the parties would be working together to put this extension in place as fast as possible and enabling the connection between the regional railway with the federal network. On the next chart, I will share a few features of this new regulatory model. The state authorization regulation is a new regulatory model that brings a lot of advantage when compared with traditional concession model. In this new regulatory framework, the assets are 100% private and will never return to the government. That feature give us more agility to manage the authorization assets without stringent regulations that usually a concession requires. When it comes to the duration, we are also better off.
We are authorized to operate for 45 years. We can get multiple renewals of 45 years each, which brings almost a perpetual duration. On the economic side, there will be neither concession fee nor any kind of cap for returns, which once again, will give Rumo more flexibility to manage the business in the most efficient way. Last but not least, we can also apply for SUDENE tax exemption, which could give us a 75% discount over income taxes in this new entity. On the next chart, I will share why we prefer this regulatory model over other possibilities. Several possibilities of authorization to make new railway projects feasible were or are being studied. All of them with great autonomy for the railway operator. However, the only regulatory option that can be used immediately for our extension project is the authorization from the State of Mato Grosso.
The estimated timing for signing an authorization contract in other alternative is much longer. This made the decision clear for Rumo. The next chart, we will talk about the environmental side. In order to initiate investments, we still need to accomplish to the environmental process. We started this project back in August 2019, and we are advancing in full compliance with all regulations. Moreover, we expect the entire licensing process to take more than three years from August 2019, highlighting how serious and diligent the process is and connecting well with our ESG agenda. This extension will allow us to replace trucks that today are used to bring the cargo from other areas in Mato Grosso to Rondonópolis. Generating significant CO2 avoidance and increasing the safety in the roads by reducing the number of trucks and accidents.
We expect more than 50,000 job opportunities per year to be created by our project, bringing further development to the state of Mato Grosso. On the next chart, I will share with you how we came up with our railway course. In the early stage of this project, we have studied more than 2,500 railway courses, and we have considered more than 35 variables before getting into the final project course. By doing this, we avoided proximity with urban, indigenous, and environmental areas, also making sure that the course would not go through any challenging landscape. With that, we are 100% sure that we'll be optimizing our investments, reducing future operational costs, and also advancing more easily with the environmental process. On the next chart, we will talk about the project phasing. We already disclosed that we are about to invest around BRL 10 billion in this project.
We are still working on ways to optimize our CapEx. This number could be reviewed as we advance with our analysis. Investments could initiate up to 180 days after we have obtained the environmental licenses. Potentially, the project could take up to 2030 to be finalized, meaning that the investment cycle will take almost eight years. For each of the expected milestones of the project, Rumo will have a 24-month tolerance without justification. We are planning to connect with the first terminal in 2025. This connection should already enable us to serve roughly 50% of all the volume expected for new terminals, considering both additional and volumes that will be shifting from Rondonópolis. From this point onward, the extension might be already generating cash flow and afford the remaining investments until the completion of the project.
After the connection with Nova Mutum terminal, the volumes captured will be roughly 80% of the total. The project will be already generating some positive cash flows. On the next chart, we will see the volume built up per terminal. In 2025, with the first terminal becoming operational, we expect roughly 50% of the volume to be at the first terminal. As we get to Nova Mutum, the first terminal should stand for 36% of the volumes and Nova Mutum for 27%. By 2030, with the project completed, we will have 14% in the first terminal, 25% in Nova Mutum, and 29% at Lucas do Rio Verde. We estimate that over time, 60 million tons could be shifting from Rondonópolis to other terminals, generating additional revenue based on higher distance and competitiveness, consequence of the extended railway.
On the next chart, we will be talking about the opportunities for additional volumes. To better understand the breakthrough in the competitiveness caused by the extension, we have to analyze that today, only 20% of all the exports of Mato Grosso are within a range of 200 km from Rondonópolis. That means that to get a higher market share, we have to go deeper in the state, lowering our tariffs to be competitive enough to attract additional volumes. After the extension, and by having new terminals, we could reach roughly 64% of all the demand in the Mato Grosso within a range of 200 km. This will not only allow us to increase our market share, but will boost our prices because we don't need to go further in the state to get this additional volume.
We expect that potentially we could capture 18 million tons of additional cargo with a market share of approximately 60%. On the next chart, we will talk about the chances in the competitiveness brought by the extension. As of today, we have a lower competitiveness in west, north, and east areas of Mato Grosso. When we take a look in our competitiveness in Lucas do Rio Verde, for instance, the solution in the north, that includes trucks plus waterways, costs approximately BRL 273 per ton. On the other hand, once cargo is collected in Lucas and delivered in Rondonópolis, trucks are charging approximately BRL 102 per ton, which implies that in order to the break even, Rumo could only charge BRL 171 per ton.
When we look to 2030, when the extension will be fully completed, the solution through BR-163 plus waterways is going to be more expensive due to the toll roads, something around BRL 293 per ton. Given the fact that we are going to have a terminal in Lucas, we are going to need trucks just to collect the grains in farms nearby, and to deliver in our terminal in Lucas, which make the truck freight much lower than before, around BRL 20 per ton, allowing us to charge more than BRL 100 per ton to break even with the competitor solution. On the next chart, we are going to talk a bit more about the Cuiabá market potential. The connection with Cuiabá will bring some volume opportunities.
The first one is to shift container volumes that we currently serve in Rondonópolis to Cuiabá, replacing costs with trucks for additional railway revenues. The second opportunity is related to additional opportunities that could be created by the arrival of the tracks in the region. Clearly, the return with this part of the extension is neither as high nor as quick as the ones we could get in Lucas do Rio Verde and Nova Mutum. On the other hand, given the lower network density, the CapEx per kilometer is going to be lower in this stretch. On the next chart, we are going to be talking about the levels of additional margins that we expect in this extension. In 2019, our margins in the North Operation were 61.6%. Since then, we have been, and will continue to implement several initiatives to boost railway efficiency, reducing the cost per RTK.
On the other hand, given the entrance of Central Network and the higher capacity in Manaus, combined with the additional competitiveness brought by the extension, we could generate higher volumes, allowing further cost dilution alongside with additional revenues. That being said, even with potentially lower costs to producers, we expect additional EBITDA margins to be way higher than they were in 2019. Here I finish the presentation, and together with Beto Abreu and Gustavo da Rosa, I will be available for the Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you. We now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star one on your touch-tone phone at this time or anytime. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Questions will be taken in order they are received. We kindly ask you to make it one by one. Please also pick up your headset to provide an optimal sound quality that one position your question. Please hold while we collect questions. Our first question comes from Pedro Bruno with XP Investimentos.
Hello, good afternoon. First of all, thank you for taking my question. First of all, congratulations on signing the authorization. We acknowledge here from our side, from the Ambev side, how challenging it is to go through all of the steps to sign such a structural project. Congratulations on that. I have two questions. I'll go with the first one here regarding potential regulatory risks involved, in the signature, in the sense that, how we could, let's say, help investors understand if there is any legal or regulatory risk having the authorization being done with the state rather than with the federal government. Maybe if you can go through the process of how was the process of approval by the state and how much support you see from the federal government in this whole process?
I guess it would be helpful for us to understand and gauge any potential regulatory risks that you foresee on that front. That's it from our side.
Thank you. Bruno, this is Beto Abreu. Let me get the question. I think it's a very important one, by the way. Let me cover first the whole process, which started more than a year ago.
We have to take into account that firstly, what the state of Mato Grosso did was change the constitution. They have done this exactly one year ago. After that, they complement the law of this change and then regulate it. They cover the whole process of changing the law, complementing, and also regulating. I cannot see any process more stronger than that when you look for a legal framework. That's the first thing. Even though the state of Mato Grosso has also decided to build with the federal government, an agreement to have all the support, mainly from the infrastructure minister, regarding the project.
That's why they signed it, as we mentioned in the presentation, though, that cooperation agreement that was signed between federal and the state government exactly to support and to make sure that we bring everyone on the state level and the federal level on the same table and the same direction. What we will see for sure is something, I would say similar to what we have already in the highways, where we have federal highways, also state highways, working together in different geographies. That's the process, in our view, very strong and with the support with both levels, the state and also the federal government. Thank you for the question, Bruno.
Thank you very much for the answer.
Our next question comes from Josh Milberg with Morgan Stanley.
Hey, Alberto. Hey, Lewin. Thanks very much for the question, I also wanted to congratulate you guys on this huge milestone. You guys have moved remarkably quickly with this whole project. I was skeptical. You also, in your presentation, highlighted very clearly the incremental grain volume this expansion will allow you to access, and how it will expand your area of influence. I just wanted to ask if you could talk about the whole issue of this FICO concession and the potential authorization of an expansion from Água Boa to Lucas. The whole topic of authorizations has gotten a lot of press in the last couple of weeks. It just seems like that particular authorization could very much shake up the competitive landscape in the heart of Mato Grosso.
I just wanted to hear if you're eventually as skeptical about that going forward as you were with the Ferrogrão in the past. If that authorization, that extension were to happen, if you think that there would be sufficient volume for both extensions. Thank you.
Yeah. No, thank you very much for the question. Let me call this extension, this project, Agua Boa to Lucas, which is the one that you mentioned. Let me call it FICO number two, okay? At the end of the day, it's the extension of also the other project, which is FICO number one We have to agree firstly that this FICO number two cannot, let's say, be a standalone project. We have to analyze it together. Of course, it's in our screen, and we are looking to the process. The first question for us, and this is what we are analyzing, it's about the FICO 1. Instead of phasing, timing, when the building will start, how long it will take, when will be the action of this process?
The FICO 1 is really the key one here before analyzing the FICO 2, because they are, in the end of the day, connected, if they are implemented. That's the first thing to take into account. Don't forget that we can also request the authorization of the FICO 2. What we are doing now, it's really waiting to see the regulation process moving forward. We have the provisional measure, which was issued a couple of weeks ago. We have the PL 261, which is also under discussion in the Congress. What we want to understand is how both projects will converge and see how it's going to work, how it will be regulated. Analyze this as a project, let's say, after understanding all the rules. That's the first thing.
Let's consider a scenario that we really have that project in the future, despite the time that can take to be built. What I would like to say to you is that impact in our business in terms of volume is very low. I would say, we wouldn't consider it because we're going to be closer, we're going to be faster because it's a 500 km less distance from Santos, for instance, and we're going to be cheaper. I am considering the scenario of arriving, because, again, we start the project three, four years ago already. Next step is really having the environmental license to start building. This is what we are considering for that project. It's really understanding how it's going to work together, because if we have the FICO 2, we're going to have rail that will cross the FICO 1.
We don't know who is going to own the FICO one, and then that is going to arrive in our rail, which is the Central Network. There's two alternatives, going to the north or going to the south. We really don't see any impact in terms of competition, our project for that. Of course, we have the scenario also in our business case. Thank you very much for the question. Very important one.
Okay. If you don't mind, then let me just, while on the topic of alternative authorizations, if you wouldn't mind just touching on some of the other authorizations that have been announced in the market, if there are any other projects that are on your radar. Thanks again.
Yeah. Firstly, let me say that I think there's a very important improvement on the regulatory side going on in Brazil. Having the opportunity to have legislation, a new legal framework that can bring agility to implement projects like short lines, I think it's a very good news for the sector. That's the first thing. Regarding all the projects, again, our position at this time is really understand the process, wait to see how the regulation will be set up, because it's still a lot to go on those projects under discussion in the Congress. We have the experience on the state. We know that takes time. It's really trying to understand exactly how it's going to be the rules.
When you see, for instance, the PLS 261 presented to the Senate last week in Brasília, we see as a very good project for the sector. Again, we just want to see those projects being regulated to position ourselves in terms of new requests for authorization. Short lines in areas like, I can give you an example, on Três Lagoas, which is the pulp and paper, let's say, industry segment. It's a good idea to have a short line to connect those plants to our north line. Those kind of things are the kind of opportunity that those authorizations can bring for us. Okay?
That's great. Thanks again.
Our next question comes from Lucas Barbosa with Santander.
Good afternoon, Alberto, Lewin, Gustavo. Thanks for taking my question, and congratulations on the project. I have two questions. The first one is regarding the terminals. Can you give some color on the estimated capacity for each of the three terminals on the stretch up to Lucas do Rio Verde? In addition, is Rumo contemplating delivering the Nova Mutum and the Lucas do Rio Verde terminals before the announced schedule? That's my first question. I'll move to the second one afterwards. Thanks very much.
Thank you. Thank you, Lucas. Firstly, we are still analyzing the first terminal, where exactly it's going to be. We can have one, even two. We have many opportunities here to bring partners. A lot of local players try to ask me to be part of this. We had a very good, I'd say, experience with Caramuru in São Simão, as you know, in Goiás, with a partner that can share investment and bring volume, bring value to the business. That might be a kind of a business model for those terminals in Mato Grosso who really having partnerships on those. The first terminal, we're still analyzing exactly where we'll be. The capacity should be around seven, eight million tons. For Nova Mutum, we should have a bigger terminal. That will really be the heart, the biggest one.
That one should be very, I would say, close to 50 million tons. Will depend of the moment that we arrive. Then Lucas do Rio Verde. I'm sure that we will only decide the size of the Lucas do Rio Verde terminal after arriving and operating in Nova Mutum. We're not going to do this before, because the market will be completely different at that time. Remember that by 2027, 2028, the size of the market in Mato Grosso should be around 70% bigger than it is today. In terms of production. We are producing something like 75. We're expecting by 2030 something like 120 million tons. This is how we are planning. There's, yes, a possibility to start operating a terminal before arriving with the rail. This is also being considered here in the plan.
Perfect, Alberto. Very clear. Thanks for taking my question. If I can ask a second one regarding the SUDENE tax benefit, can you give some details on the steps to obtain the tax incentive? For how many years is the incentive applicable, and is there any risk of not obtaining the tax incentive? Thanks very much.
Yeah. Let me hand over to Lewin. Thank you.
Hi. Well, SUDENE, we still do not have many details on that. What I can say is that we started conversations with SUDENE, very initial conversations, obviously, because before we needed to have the project approved. We are initial phase of a conversation. The benefit will be very similar to what we have today in Rondonópolis. That means that we would have a 75% discount on taxes. However, the term depends on the investment that's done. We still do not have the details to provide to the market. I can tell you that as soon as we have, we will be sharing with you. Okay? The probability of having, we are initial conversations. We are very positive regarding that. It's a project that has a good characteristic for SUDENE, that's development of the area. We are very positive in getting it.
Perfect, Lewin. Thank you very much, Lewin and Alberto. Have a great day.
Thank you. Thank you for participating.
Our next question comes from Rogério Araújo with UBS.
Hey, Alberto, Lewin. Thank you for the call and congratulations on this development. I have a few actually very specific questions about the presentation. Actually some doubts on what was presented. First, in terms of incremental volume, there is a slide with the expected projected volume for each year. I assume this is in ton and not RTK. Is that correct? That's the first one.
Hi, Rogério. This is Gustavo. You're right. We present the data in tons, not in RTK.
Hey, Gustavo. Thank you. The second one, in terms of incremental volume of 18 million ton, can you try to break down from where this 18 million ton should come from? Maybe, I don't know, 100% from Lucas do Rio Verde, or if you could split between terminal 1 and Nova Mutum and Lucas.
Rogério, actually, we presented a slide. Let me check exactly the number. I think it's slide number nine that shows over time how the volume is going to be shifting from one terminal to the other. We put that the percentage, not the real volumes. For instance, if you look for 2025, you're going to see 51% of the volumes already in the first terminal. Meanwhile, we are going to have 49% in the remaining volumes in Rondonópolis. That means whenever the first terminal is in place, we could reach almost the same volumes that will remain in Rondonópolis. The mix will be roughly 50/50. What we are not answering yet, and it's because it's connected with our pricing strategy, is how much of these volumes that will go for the first terminal.
How much are going to be incremental volumes, and how much are going to be volumes that are simply shifting from Rondonópolis to a terminal that's a bit far away, and therefore we could have additional revenues. The decision to set up a pricing strategy to maximize the net revenues and the cash flow generation, it's going to be made close to the initiation of these operations. It's going to be an optimization process, and we are going to try to set tariffs in a way that could allow us to get higher returns, and therefore, the more additional volumes we could get, we could be better off. We are not committing with these numbers right now because of that.
It's going to be an optimization, and we are trying to make sure that we could maximize the revenues and the cash flow generations already in the first years of operation. Pricing will respond how much of the volume is going to be real incremental volume and how much is going to be only volumes that we were serving before in Rondonópolis and now we are going to be shifting up to all the terminals.
Okay. Thank you, Gustavo. I'm assuming that in 2030, this breakdown includes both the current Rondonópolis volume, that part of which would be shifted, and also the incremental volume, correct?
Yeah, you're right. Yeah.
Okay, great. Last one. It's actually related to Cuiabá rail line. I see that you put some subsectors here that you could get some volumes from. Any estimate in terms of million ton, how much volume could Rumo bring from this Cuiabá line?
Rogério, as we presented in the presentation, first of all, the CapEx to do this extension is not huge. The density of the railway is not expecting the short term to be a huge density, so therefore, CapEx per kilometer is going to be lower, for instance, than what we are going to spend in the extension to Lucas do Rio Verde. We already have some volumes that today we serve in Rondonópolis, especially in our container business. We presented that data in the presentation. We believe that those volumes are going to be shifting to Cuiabá, and therefore capturing additional revenues through higher tariffs in this process. Another thing that is kind of hard to guess right now is what could be the additional development to the region of Cuiabá that a new railway could provide.
That is expected to generate some volume, but not necessarily at once or in the first year that we connect with the terminal there. We expect those volumes to be increasing smoothly over time. As of now, it is hard, and we wouldn't like to give any particular guidance because there is a higher degree of uncertainty with regards to that. It's not as clear as Lucas, where most parts of the volume is already there. It's just a matter of connecting with the railways, and then we can capture the volumes. In Cuiabá, we are also accounting with some market development, which is very hard to get it right over time. The uncertainty here, it's a bit higher, but we believe that we could at least break even in this project. We don't believe it's going to be a negative return.
How much time it's going to take to pay off, then it's hard to really answer that question.
Okay. Sounds great. Do you have any rough range of the kilometers between Rondonópolis and the first terminal, then first terminal in Nova Mutum, and lastly, Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde, more or less according to the line that you've done?
Yeah. Rogério, as we presented in the slide, I think it's number eight, we are considering roughly to have a terminal every 200 km at least. That could change a bit, as Beto already mentioned. We could have the first terminal 200 km away from Rondonópolis, the second one, Nova Mutum, should be roughly 400 km away from Rondonópolis. The end of the line, Lucas, is going to be roughly 600 km. As of now, I would say that every 200 km at least, we could have a terminal. That's how we plan to address the buildup of the volume and also our attempt to make the volumes arrive earlier than otherwise.
Very clear. Thanks so much, Gustavo. Congratulations again.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Victor Mizusaki with Bradesco BBI.
Hi. Thank you, and congrats for these achievements. I have a couple of questions here as well. The first one, when we take a look on slide number eight, and then you comment about project completion, by 2024-2025, we're talking about the company deploying a BRL 3 billion-BRL 4 billion of CapEx, right? The project to become operational only by 2025. I don't know if you can comment a little bit how to expect to finance this project. If, and how we should think about the financial leverage going forward. The second question, you also mentioned this slide about land expropriation costs. If you expect any kind of support from the state of Mato Grosso or from the federal government to implement this project. Thank you.
Hi, Victor. This is Lewin. Thank you for the question. I'll give you a very complete answer in terms of everything that we think about financing, okay? The beginning of the investment will be only in 2023, okay? There is only a small piece in 2022 that's the executive progress. This is irrelevant, okay? From 2023, the first two years, okay, till the beginning of 2025, we will not have the first terminal ready. This will be a moment that we are spending without additional revenue from this project. You'll see our leverage increasing a bit in these first two years, okay? After that, you'll see that the project will start to have its own revenues, okay? From 2025, more or less, on, our leverage will go down with the revenues of this project, okay? Why? We'll be using the cash that will come from these revenues, okay?
If we think about where the funding will come from, it will be something similar to what we have done in past years, Victor. We'll be looking for a diversity of pockets. Okay? I always say that this is important. It generates competition between the pockets, what's important for us in terms of quality of the financing that's given for us. We already started to talk, for example, with the BNDES. We already started to talk to regional funds. If you ask, will we need to have any help from federal and local government? Maybe through these local funds. These funds, they support projects that bring development for certain areas. We are also talking to commercial banks, to see what structures they have. Obviously, we count on the capital market. We have plenty of access to local market, through debentures , infrastructure, debentu res.
We have support of foreign markets with bonds. Obviously, we can also talk to the external development banks. We can raise suppliers' credit. This will come from financing and we are looking for a huge diversity of pockets, so we can obviously get what's better for Rumo in terms of term and in terms of price. Hope I answered your question, Victor.
Lewin, basically, what you're saying, there's no need to raise equity, right?
No, we will be doing this through financing. Just to have an idea, again, you have your model, we have our model here. Just to have an idea, in our model, the peak of leverage will increase something between 0.4 or 0.6x to our baseline in the second or third year. Okay. That's not too much for a company like Rumo. Taking into consideration what I always said, since I became CFO, that in the group you have the policy to have a leverage around 2x , but you can go beyond that if you have a plan of the leverage. As I told you, after the third year, once the terminals that we have start to work, this project will start to generate cash and then we start to leverage the company.
Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim.
Sorry, Victor, you have any additional questions?
Yeah, about the land expropriation.
Sorry, about what, Victor?
Make it easier. The land expropriation.
I could take that one, Victor.
Hi, this is Gustavo, Victor. In a huge project like this, of course, the current regulations already help us in the process of land expropriation. We have a law securing us because the project has public interest, helping us and supporting us in this process of negotiation with the landowners. As Ricardo highlighted in the presentation, we choose very carefully our course. We are not dealing with huge issues here. We are not going around big cities, any protected areas, environmental areas. Expropriation costs should be something easier. We count with the support of the current law, which qualifies this project by having a public interest, therefore it counts with the support of the regulation.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim with Goldman Sachs.
Hi, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three questions to you on CapEx. One is just a clarification. The first one is, how to reconcile this CapEx spend for Lucas do Rio Verde with your original long-term guidance for CapEx for Rumo. Is there something from Lucas do Rio Verde included there, or is it really on top? Or do you consider postponing any of those projects, which were initially included in the long-term CapEx spend because of this new opportunity? The second question is, what about the investments in the North and Paulista networks to support the growth in volumes coming from Lucas do Rio Verde? How much is it? Is it somehow included in that initial long-term guidance as well?
Finally, just one clarification on slide 10. Correct me if I'm wrong, please, but I understood from slide 10 that in your view, if in a scenario without expansion, the company would lose market share between 2025 and 2030. I just wanted you to clarify that point. If this is the case, is it because the northern region of Mato Grosso tends to grow more than the southern region? If this is the case, should we expect any loss of market share from Rumo between now and 2025 before the expansion starts to operate? Thank you very much.
Hi, Bruno. This is Gustavo. Let me try to cover the three questions. First of all, our guidance until 2025 did not include any significant number, or any numbers coming from this expansion, because by then we weren't sure about whether or not this is going to be approved anytime soon. Right now, very likely, we're going to have to work to measure those two guidances that we have. We have a specific guidance for Lucas do Rio Verde that we just shared with you guys, and we have our current guidance until 2025, which does not consider the expansion to Lucas do Rio Verde. Of course, we'll have to think about leverage as Ricardo highlighted. The capability of our suppliers to deliver us, for instance, all the raw materials that we need to put both plants in place.
This is something that we are going to be assessing and maybe, who knows, maybe next year, beginning of next year, we could be able to be measuring those two guidances. We are planning to do that, but that's not the case right now. We still have to look to the impact of the extension figures that we just gave. We have to remember as well that we have some triggers in this extension process. When we are going to be obtaining the environmental licensing matters in terms of scheduling. For instance, if we accomplish a bit earlier, it could change a bit the deployment of CapEx. The same works otherwise. If we accomplish a bit later, we're going to have to adjust that to our timetable. I think that's the first part of the question.
Regarding the second question, investments in North Paulista to support the project. I think here we have no surprises. When we early renew Malha Paulista, we have committed to invest roughly BRL 6.1 billion to more than double the capacity of Malha Paulista. From that moment onwards, the concern of the company was not anymore about the capacity in the long run, but rather how could we fill up that capacity that is going to be available over time. We could do that through pricing, so try to be more aggressive in terms of pricing to attract more demand to our network. We could expand our footprint and which clearly we choose the path of expanding the footprint. We did the Central Network, which puts us in Goiás into Goiás state, therefore, giving us the ability to get more cargo without having to lower prices.
Now we are doing the same with the extension to Lucas. Already answering your third question, of course, that chart, the chart number 10, the slide number 10, it was made based on an assumption. The assumption there was the following. As long as the market is going to be developing towards the north, if we remain only in Rondonópolis, we theoretically would have to give up on prices or reduce our prices to be more competitive and try to capture the demand more in the north. You have asked as well about the short term. The short term, we don't think so because, you probably know, Bruno, but next year we're going to have the initiation of the toll roads in BR-163. In the short run, we have a price differential to be charged in the North Arch.
We have this, let's say, this step up in competitiveness that could bring us the ability to grow without creating too much price pressure in the short term. In the long run, and I mean five, 10 years from now, if we remain in Rondonópolis and the market is already bigger in the central and in the north area of Mato Grosso, we would have to lower prices and worse off. This lower prices doesn't mean that the producers are paying less. It's just the case that they have to pay way more to truck drivers to bring the cargo from the north region to the terminal in Rondonópolis. Indeed, we are giving away discounts without being able to lower the cost for the producers. It's the worst kind of investment that we could be making or doing in this process.
We understand that we are much clearly better off by doing the extension, which brings us the ability to lower the cost without having to lower our prices to the producer. That's a win-win situation. Everybody wins in this process. Then, of course, our market share could be way higher because we don't need to lower tariffs to be as competitive as we are planning to be.
Thank you, Gustavo, for the comprehensive answers. Just to clarify one specific point, you mentioned that in the case of Paulista network, you were already expecting to expand capacity. What about the North network? Is there any additional investment that will be needed there or not?
Bruno, the difference is in density. For instance, in North network, we have roughly seven trains per day, which are basically the grains trains departing from Rondonopolis today. If you think about, okay, we have to go from seven, let say, to 10, 11 trains per day, it's not a big deal in terms of capacity, especially because that network, it's very efficient. The trains are running almost at 80 km per hour. We have concrete ties, very good tracks. The efficiency in the network is pretty high. If we have to do something, it would be something minor, not significant. Remember, we already extend the length of the sidings to afford the longer trains, the 120-car trains. We don't expect much in the North.
The problem lies more in Paulista, where today we have 25 trains per day, if we count with the trains coming from other railways that access our network. There, the density of the network is pretty high. To create capacity, we have to put significant investments in place. That was exactly what we accomplished or what we committed back then when we early renewed the concession. It's pretty much at the asset. I would say that the other point that we have to look also, and the company is doing for quite a few times, is the Santos capacity. We have projects there to increase capacity to improve the access, and we are also working to put in place more terminals there. We announced a few times ago, a potential partnership with DP World.
We did a very important improvement in the access to the Port of Santos this year. We have other terminals, like Terminal 39, and other terminals already seeking for their renewal, investing quite a lot there. Santos and Paulista are the keys to make sure that we are going to be accessing all the capacity that we need for the Lucas extension. As we are already been talking to the market for a while, the company is doing all we can to make sure that those points will not be a bottleneck for us in the future.
Thank you very much, Gustavo.
Our next question comes from Victor Mizusaki with Bradesco BBI.
Just a last one here. Lucas, the contract has a clause of contract renewal every 45 years. Can you comment how does this work? I mean, this specific contract, is there any kind of a requirement to expand rate capacity? I don't know if you can comment about this.
Victor, let me see.
Yes , I can take this. Victor, no, it's a 45 years contract. It can be renewed for another 45 years. It's almost, let's say, infinite contract. You can keep renewing the contract for 45 years. There's no capacity or, let's say, volume to be reached as a premise to renew. Okay? What we have is flexibility in terms of timing, so we can change the implementation of the project for two years with no notice. We can also change even more, if we agree with the local government, due to any specific thing that we find during the implementation. As we can see, in terms of obligation, it's completely different from the one that we have under concession. That's the beauty of the authorization, when we compare with the concession.
In that specific case, 45 years, again, renewed for equal period successfully. There's no concession fee. It's less, let's say, stringent in terms of obligation. It's really a kind of the concept here is almost to be a private, let's say, asset. I think this is the concept behind here. Let me take the opportunity to close the call. Firstly, I'd like to thank you all of you for the questions, for the participation, for the comments. I have to say that we are also very happy with what's going on, with the moment that we are living. We agree that with most of you, that is a remarkable moment for Rumo. We know that this project will transform our business. We also transformed the logistics in terms of infrastructure, not only in Mato Grosso, but also in Brazil.
If we look backward in the last three years, in 2019, we won the auction of Central Network. Then, in 2020, we renewed the Paulista network. Now 2021, we have this first private rail authorization under the Brazilian, let's say, democratic regime, let's put it this way. It was three very important steps for Rumo in the last three years. We're not going to come with something else next year, 2022. We understand that we have now our portfolio to implement in the next 10 years what we think it's important to do to extract value from what we have done from those projects. It's really a new cycle that is beginning for our company. Again, thank you for the moment, thank you for the support, thank you for the participation, and I hope all of you have a very good week. Bye-bye.
Thank you. This concludes Rumo's Conference Call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may disconnect and have a good week.