Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Bulmode's 4th Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call, which will be led by Mr. Hittago Levin, Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer, after Mr. Berto Abril, Rumo's CEO, gives his message. We would like to inform you that this event is recorded and all participants will be in a listen only mode during the company's presentation.
After Ruma's remarks, there will be a question and answer session for investors and industry analysts conducted by Mr. Ricardo Levy. At that time, further instructions will be given. The audio and slide show of this presentation are available through live webcast at ir. Rumolog.com.
The slides can also be downloaded from the webcast platform. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward looking statements will be made under the Safe Harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Ruralmo's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Roma and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward looking statements.
Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu to give his statements followed then by Mr. Ricardo Levin. Mr. Beto, you may please begin the conference.
Dear investors and stakeholders, it is with great pleasure that I share with you my review of Humu's 2019 performance as well as our path going forward. In 2019, we achieved great results. Our volume grew 6.6% and our EBITDA grew 10%. Net income was roughly 3x higher than 2018, and we generated BRL 688,000,000 cash before funding and amortization. We also had important achievements in 2019.
We won the bid for North South Rail and closed an operational deal with Ferroeste, initiatives that expand even more our refrac area. The revenue of Mala Paolista that sustained our long term strategy also advanced with the approval from Tfuel was used by the court. Besides that, our double stack railcar operation started in the continent segment. This was my first year as Jumu's CEO. Now is the time to look forward at all the opportunities that we still have to improve our efficiency and increase our business competitiveness.
I will explore this in our next Quezon Day, where we will present details to the market on our growth strategy for the upcoming years. In 2020, uncertainties regarding the international demand for grains may create greater market volatility in the short term. However, the long term fundamentals of our business remain unchanged. We believe in Brazil the business potential and the decrease of the demand for brands in the global market. We're calling out economic activity in Brazil and the expansion of our operation in the state of Golarais in the West region of Parana are ours, wallet growth and cargo diversification.
We remain focused on safety, as we're keeping our investment plan with extremely capital discipline, seeking for creating even more value for our shareholders. I conclude by renewing my commitment alongside with Humu's team to be a better logistics industry for the country in order to foster the development of domestic prediction and to approach areas with different levels of industrialization. All in all, we are Brazil in motion. Now I turn the floor over to Ricardo Levy, who will conduct our earnings presentation. Thank you.
Thank you, Beto. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. First, I'd like to point out that likewise previous quarter, 2018 results presented in our earnings release refer to the pro form a figures, reflecting the impact of IFRS 16 to guarantee a fair comparison. On Page 3 of the release, the impact on each line item of our income statement is summarized. As per the Slide number 3, our consolidated results consider the effects of the central network, new name for the North South Railway.
The effects of its consolidation on 2019 results are stated on Page 4 of our release and comprise BRL2.8 billion, referring to the accounting for the auction amount as a right of use to be restated in accordance with contract operators and BRL2.7 billion as these liabilities. BRL0.7 million reduction in EBITDA due to the operating expenses and BRL121 million reduction in net income since besides costs, we have depreciation and financial expenses over concession amounts. To facilitate a comparison of figures, Page 4 shows a chart that considers Q4 'nineteen and 2019 figures excluding the central network effect. It's worth mentioning that all other sections of release reported figures including the central network consolidation. On the next slide, I'd like to share the current status of the central network.
As previously mentioned, the central network brings opportunities to diversify cargo and expand our operations. We already started the works required to make the central network operational. As you'll see in our long term guidance, investments in 2020 will increase compared to 2019, mainly due to investments in this network. We are advancing with trade negotiations to transport planes after the conclusion of terminals, which should occur during 2021. Also, even before that, we may start to operate with containers running more.
On the next slide, we will take a look at our operational results in 2019. In 2019, our volumes grew 6.6%, reaching RPT60 billion, of which we highlight. Fertilizer volume grew 90%, boosted by North operation volumes. Container transport grew by 20%, and corn volume rose by 19% offsetting soybean growth. 2019 presented an atypical seasonality because of market conditions and operational constraints, which restricted our ability to capture additional volumes.
In the first half of the year, we were impacted by operational constraints due to landslides at Feltou Downhill and an unfavorable scenario for soybean demand, which reflected the global supply and demand dynamics. In the second half of the year, the anticipated corn as a harvest ensured positive volumes already in June and allowed good performance for Jumbo until November. However, market performance in the period exceeded our capacity gain, thus resulting in market share loss and low carbon availability in December. Moving to the next slide, we will discuss our financial performance. Home EBITDA, excluding central network, rose 10.1% in 2019 to BRL 3,850,000,000.
And the consolidated margin stood at 54.2%, 1 percentage point higher than in 2018, reflecting the company's positive operating leverage. Consolidated yield rose 1%, highlighting the 5.5% yield increase in sales operation. These results reflect the impact of seasonality seen throughout the year with crop anticipated in January, which resulted in lower soybean volumes in April May and operational constraints, which restricted volumes in February March, months which historically record better yields. Variable costs increased in line with net revenues, driven by gains of 5.5 percent on fuel consumption, offsetting higher costs with terminals and the payment of the take or pay fees in February. Fixed costs rose only 1.2% as a result of the company's scalability and cost management efforts.
We will now take a look at the financial results and net income. In 2019, we recorded a net financial expense of BRL1.2 billion, 12.4 percent lower than in 2018. Our results for the average cost of debt and the continuous liability management process contributed to these results. On the other hand, charges overdriven increased due to the inclusion of interest rates on concession installments of the central network. The net income totaled BRL786 1,000,000 in 2019.
Excluding the central network, net income more than tripled and reached BRL 907 1,000,000 in 2019. Test generation before funding and amortization totaled BRL688 1,000,000 in 2019, reflecting EBITDA increase added to improved financial results. On the next slide, we will take a look at our debt. Wholes indebtedness came in line at 1.8x broad net debt to EBITDA. Now moving on to the next slide, let's discuss main ESG aspects in 2019.
In 2019, we improved our energy efficiency, reducing our unit addition by 7%. The addition due to our increased capacity, we prevented cargoes from being carried by trucks, a transportation mode which needs on average 5x more carbon dioxide than the railway. We now compose the EBIT3, the Brazilian Stock Exchange CO2 Index Portfolio, an indicator of companies with good management practices in GHG Commission. And also, we will talk to the company disclosure project, CBP, the global organization that leads the reporting system of environmental information. In 2020, our challenge is to advance our engagement with the Dow Jones Sustainability Index and the IFE, B3 Sustainability Index.
In the social aspect, as our railway runs over 500 Brazilian municipalities, whom is aware of its relevant role in the communities where it operates. In 2019, we won the Social Responsibility Award from Easto Egeniro Magazine and the SCG stand for the project Containers of Le Freseniers that positively impacted the community surrounding our railway tracks. Concerning governance, Humu complies with the BTIP practices. Also, in 2019, we reviewed our code of ethics, which was spread throughout the employees by training hours. Moving on to the next slide, we'll take a look at the soybean market perspectives.
2020 soybean perspective in Brazil, according to Konabe and Ageru, indicate a record production with 9% increase. Recent data from USDA point a raise of £2,000,000 on Brazil exports. On the other hand, other forecasts indicate a reduction, mainly due to market uncertainties, which contributes to a volatile soybean scenario. As per USDA, the raise on China imports reflects a better consumption due to the recovery of the swine herd in China. In the U.
S, soybean crop should decrease by roughly 23,000,000 tons, what should limit the rates on exports, even with the evolving on trade deal. Considering this scenario, we believe that with higher logistics capacity and improved operational performance, the beginning of the harvest may result in good volumes when the commodity price increases and there's a positive demand for efficient logistics. Now moving on to the next slide, we'll take a look at the core markets. Preliminary figures of CONADE and Azural indicate a slightly lower corn production with exports also shrinking due to higher domestic consumption. It's worth mentioning that despite reduced exports versus 2019, the figure projected is much higher than in 2018.
Considering that this year, the soybean harvest began in a regular period, current exports should be concentrated between July December. Thus, with higher railway capacity and corn volumes concentrated in the second half of the year, there should be a room to regain the market share loss in the second half of twenty nineteen, thus enabling to higher volumes levels. To conclude my presentation, on the next slide, I would like to present our 2020 guidance. For 2020, due to a scenario of greater volatility, we increased our guidance ranges. Thus, HUMBERTO a cap raise of 15% on EBITDA, considering the average point of BRL 4,400,000,000, which includes central network costs totaling BRL 90 million, 10% on volumes, also considering the average point of BRL 66,000,000,000, investments from Rp2.6 billion to Rp3.4 billion in line with our long term plan and considering the investments required to finish the work at the central network in order to make it operational.
This concludes my presentation. I thank you all for participating in our conference call. I remain at your disposal for the Q and A session.
Answer
Our first question comes from Josh Newburg, Morgan Stanley.
Hey, Beiko. Hey, Lavigne. Thank you very much for the call. I wanted to ask if you could comment a little on how you're seeing the 2020 yield scenario And on to what degree, if any, the paving of BR163 is a factor there? When we had spoken to you earlier in the year, I think your message had been that something on the order of a 5% increase could be achievable this year, helped by more soybeans and a better distribution of volume.
So I just wanted to see if that type of scenario still makes sense. And also if you could touch on how you're progressing in closing the take or pay contracts too, that would be great.
There's a bunch of questions here. Let me try to organize a bit. Let's start with BR163 here. And the payment of BR163 allowed clearly allowed increase of capacity in the North part, okay? Investors are asking us if there is evidence that this price of truck transportation felt because of the 163.
And I think this is a very important point when people talk about the payment. And in our opinion, if you compare prices during the year for previous year, there's no event that the freight cost went down because of the payment. Usually, what we see in the market is that truck drivers, they price the transportation based on market opportunity, okay, instead of on the bigger than their costs. Okay? So as well as prices went down in the 4th quarter for the 163.
It happened the same thing in December, okay, for Santos. Why? Because the market was getting weaker in December. And an additional information that's important here is that EMEA data suggests that the freight prices are already going up in January, even before the peak of the harvest, which is expected to be February. So summary of all the information that I'm giving you is that, okay, the capacity increased, it's clear, okay, going north.
But there is no for this year, 2020, first thing, there's no indication that the rates are going down because of the pavement. Another thing that's important about BR 163 and the North Arch is that there was a one moment, please. And the North Arch is that the North Arch last year exported something around 34,000,000 tons of grains, okay? If you take into consideration the grains that left Mato Grosso through North Arch, the volumes increased from £15,000,000 to £22,000,000, okay? And splitting these volumes, not on the volume, but the reason, what happened for soybean and corn, It's important to clarify that Jumu did not lose market share for soybean, okay?
We could have done better because of operational constraints, but we haven't lose market share. And for Corren, what happened was that Jumbo lost market share, not only for not for the North Arch, but for the other logistics providers. And we did our job in corn. We increased 21% our transported volumes. But what happened that corn exports grew a lot.
And the 21% that we did was not enough to catch up with the market, okay? So this is a brief summary of the facts of the payment was 163 and the last part, if you have more doubt, you can ask, I will try to go through the other points here. 2020 yields, usually we do not disclose the yields. However, I think from our guidance, you can take some conclusions here. We are seeing that if you consider the midpoint of EBITDA and volume, we are seeing that EBITDA is increasing 15%, while our volumes are increasing 10%.
We are, every single year, reducing our main variable costs between 3% 5%, that's field. And as you can see in our results, we are increasing fixed cost much less than installation. So by here, you can conclude that, yes, there will be some improvement, but huge part of our games are focused on increasing competitiveness that we want to have, okay? And we do have, as I always tell the sell side and the investor, we are a scale business. So we are every single year reducing variable cost by gaining efficiency and diluting fixed cost.
And from this, that will improve our results. Now if I'm not wrong, you asked about the take or pay, yeah? This, Josh, is something that we don't disclose the percentage of volume under take or pay and all those before strategic reasons, okay? One thing that I can tell you is that the percentage of take or pay is lower than the same period of previous year. And as you know, the uncertainty that I talked during the presentation on exported volumes increases the likelihood of paying pay per pay, what makes the trading companies less willing to sign this kind of agreements, okay?
So but not all about this is not bad news for us. We I always said that we are not finding take or pay at any cost. We know about our competitiveness. So and what we see is that there is a possibility
of better
market green market exports, although you've seen the market people talking about volatility, this is true. But if what you saw recently about USDA talking about the volumes of export was a good number, okay? So volatility has the 2 sides, okay? So you have good opportunity here. And more than this, Josh, there is an expect for this year of better seasonality for us with hopefully no operational constraint in the beginning of the year, okay, what we had in 2019.
And this is a moment with higher prices that can help to offset any risk or volatility that you have in use this year. So sorry for being a long answer here. Hopefully, I answered everything you're asking
me. That was a very thorough response. I have a few other doubts, but I'll go to the back of the line. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Josh.
Excuse me. Our next question comes from Rogerio Araujo, UBS.
I have a couple of questions here. The first is on volume. So according to our estimates, this volume guidance, it implies a growth between 2,000,000 and 4,500,000 tons for 2020. If you look at economic expectations for Mato Grosso production of grains, it expects it to increase by 1,000,000 ton in 20. So if you could talk a little bit about how this extra volume where from this extra volume, where this extra volume will come from?
So if environmental fertilizer, how much is grain? How much is any other cargo, if there is any other relevant cargo to be transported? So this is the first question. Thank you.
Hi, Rosario. Thank you very much for the question, obviously, by the presence here in the call. And thanks for the good question. There is clearly an improvement in market share in Multigro compared not only not growth, but I'll explain here, but compared to 2019. First point, very easy to understand.
Remember that we had some capacity constraints, let's call operational constraints in the first half of the year. Remember that we have the problem in the hills in Santos during the Q1 and we lost capacity, as well as we had some problems in the second half of the year because the product exports of corn grew much more than our capacity and was very concentrated in a small portion of the year, okay? So as I told you, hopefully, we will not have these operational issues in the 1st semester during the soybean. We can gain a relevant share here in Brussels. And in the second half, what we are seeing is that we will not have this anticipation of corn.
So the seasonality seems to be better for corn. And we invested last year. We have been investing every single year. We will gain capacity and we will be able to take a higher piece of this market. So this is the first point here that we are gaining volumes and market share, okay?
Also, you talked about fertilizer and we are increasing something around 50% in fertilizer for next year. In 2019, we did 1,600,000 tons of fertilizer from Stentus to Rondonopolis. We're increasing to 2,400,000 tons, aligned with what we have been promising during last years. And finally, one other thing that's relevant, that it seems that the sugar market is improving. And we have something around 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 tons of sugar, additional to what we had previous year.
So what we are talking is a clear gain of market share related when we compare to 2019.
It's very very clear. So my second question is on February volume. Any way that the coronavirus could impact the logistics to China, the shipping to China? So how do you see February volume, is it already picking up? Is soybean already started to be exported?
Should we expect a normal month now? Or should we should anything should any one off impact should have an effect here?
I'll also point someone will ask me about Covadagios, but it's very difficult to answer something related to corona virus. We are not feeling any effect of corona virus up to now in the business, okay? What you may see in the beginning of the year is a difference between the volumes exported compared to 2019, okay? Remember that in 2019, the volumes were anticipated. And in 2020, the volumes will be exported in the regular in the usual pacing, okay?
But this is not any not related to Coronavirus, I think, but this is a comparison between 2019 this year. So it feels very difficult to say if CorVelazirio has some impact in our year. And by the way, the same related to the commercial agreement between U. S. And China, it's everything very unclear.
And we have not been feeling anything regarding these issues up to now.
Our next question comes from Roberta Bertiani, Citibank.
Hi, everyone. I have two quick questions here. First, if you could remind us that there is some more green space left on the southern trench of North South? And secondly, can you give us an idea on the need for more rolling stocks for this year, please? Thank you.
Roberto, I heard very well your second question that was the rolling stock, but I could not listen about the North South. What you want to know about North South?
Yes. The first one was if there's more green space left on the southern trench of North South or we stayed to be built.
The calls are very good, but anyway, let me answer how North South is. If I don't answer your questions, please feel free to do again the question. But North South is going very well, okay? Remember that we are starting the CapEx from the south, Escribadores, to going north. We want to reach as soon as possible possible the south of Goya and make this piece operational, okay, because it's where you'll find a lot of grains, a huge amount of grains.
Just giving you some idea here that the state of Guayas and Tocquancin, these markets had potential today of about £15,000,000 of grains. In some studies, we saw that in 2028, these two markets can reach to £25,000,000,000. So we are at full speed in CapEx, and we are working to initiate the transportation of grains and containers for the north as soon as possible. There is another question about rolling stock for 20 20. We are not the 1st person to ask about the rolling stock for 2020.
And we know that there was something in the market, people say that we canceled contracts on growing stock. This is not true, okay? On the contrary, if you follow we didn't announce this because we don't think that that's relevant. But if you follow Greenbrier calls, you will listen for in the last call that they made with the market, they announced a long term contract for rolling stock with them, okay? The conditions are not public, but there is a long term contract with them that allow us to guarantee the production at very good prices.
And we have a long term contract also with former GE, current Evolitec, that produces that supply they supply for us our brand new locomotive. So the need of our stock is everything okay. There is no change in our long term plans.
Our next question comes from Josh Milberg, Morgan Stanley.
Hey, Levine. Thank you for the follow-up. Just one other area of questions I had was related to your costs. And if you could just give some color on some of the big cost movements that we saw in the quarter. One thing was a big move down in your G and A and also in your fixed costs in the Northern operation and also a large reduction of your other operating costs, which was I think due in part to a sale of some service units.
But really just wanted to understand how sustainable that move was. I mean, I think it's something that also is the responses partially embedded in your guidance, but if you could give some color there that would be helpful.
Okay. Just a brief overview on costs. You asked about G and A, if it's cost, but I always like to reinforce that every single year, we are reducing our variable cost also by increasing efficiency. Remember that we have every new year BRL 1,000,000 in fuel consumption. And we have been able to reduce the unitary consumption of fuel by 3%, 4% 3% to 5% every single year, and we'll continue to do this.
Regarding fixed costs, you know us, you know us very well, you know that we have a huge discipline on costs. Fixed costs increased only by 1 point 2% this year, much less than inflation. And the doubt maybe here is that if this is will be recurrent. And my point here is that, investments that bring as consequence the fixed cost reductions. This is one thing that's important.
And the other is that we'll keep following our fixed costs very closely. So this is not a number that we disclose to the market, but be sure that we'll keep our affordance to keep the growth of fixed costs much below the inflation. Repeating what I always tell investors in our meetings, we are a scale business and we need to keep diluting fixed costs because this make us more competitive. And for us, competitiveness is the name of the game, okay? Finally, there is a last question about G and A in the 4th quarter.
Although the results were good in this year, in my opinion, so we increased the 10% EBITDA, okay? That will grow our internal strong growth. So there is a small reversion in terms of G and A that are the what we call the PPR, but the bonuses internal bonuses of the management of the company.
Okay, leaving. That was good color. And I can take some of my questions offline. I can we can speak afterward. But are you able to disclose and I don't think it's a big item, but are you able to disclose the exact impact of the sale of the unprofitable service units in your container business?
Yes. It is quite irrelevant, Josh, for in terms of value, okay? But let's see if I have let's take exactly the value here. Let's see if you have other questions. I can take this for you.
Okay. No, no, I think you covered my other questions. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Alexandre Falcone, HSBC.
Sorry if it's the discussion was there. I guess I had some trouble in some questions. But there, it's fine. I just wanted to comment on now that VR-one hundred and R163 is finished, do you think you could see any sort of price competition there or volume competition or there's something that there's really there's something that you're not really competing for the same volumes? And second one is related to Safrina.
Is you're beginning to see that it would be for dramatic reasons and the pointing was not really ideal here and we could see a decrease in yields. Can you elaborate both of them and how do both reconnect with your guidance? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. You lost my beautiful speech on the R163. I don't know if I can repeat it like the first time, but I will do it. I will try my best here. Let me talk about PR-one hundred and sixty three.
We know that PR-one hundred and sixty three brought additional capacity and increased the capacity from to North Orange, okay? But what I told you Santander was that people are asking a lot if this decrease in prices or truck prices logistic was because of the paving of 163. And what I said before is that there is no evidence that the cost went down because of the pavement. Because usually what happens is that the sub drivers, they don't care about their cost, but they feel very quickly changes in the market. So prices go up and prices go down depending on their sensitivity if the market is good or bad or market opportunity bring higher or lower prices, okay?
So prices went down and we give usually we give an idea of prices from Surizo to Tumidity Tuba went down to 140. It was a small price, but was the tendency that happened every single year, where at the end of the year, the market the logistics market is weak, so prices go down. Even now in January, we are seeing an improvement of truck prices even before the peak of the harvest, okay? But we see what 1 thing 3 is already bringing is more, for sure, more capacity. And what I also emphasized, Falcone, in the first answer was that people are asking if the 163 basement that improved the North Arch market share at the end of 2019.
And what I told you was that the volumes of grains that went from Alto Grosso to the North Arch to 163 or the ways increased 7,000,000 tons from 15,000,000 to 22,000,000 tons. Okay, but why this happened? First, if you talk about soybean, we did not lose market share for North Orange, okay? So we could have done better. Remember, we had some capacity constraints in the first half of the year.
But we didn't lose market share for the North Arch for soybean. For corn, we did lose market share, but it was not for the North Arch, it was for the rest of the logistics providers because we are at the top of our capacity, even though we increased 21% in volumes, okay? What happened is that the market, the core market was big and concentrated. The exports were concentrated in a few months. And we didn't have capacity to catch up with the market.
So this is my review of 163 and the North Arch, okay? What is expected to happen in 2020 regarding the 163, the export through the North Orange and our capacity is basically that in Stacia Planting, we still provide more capacity because of our investments, okay? The grain exports will not grow as much as last year by what we are seeing, okay? So the market will have the opportunity to use Logistics Solutions based on the competitiveness and not based on availability as it was the case of last year because we're at the top of our capacity. So this is what will happen in 2020.
The second question, could you repeat the second question, Falcon, please? Yes. This is Chris. I think
it's Afrinha. There are reports that the planting was not optimal. And if you compare it to last year with the planting, everything was perfect. Is there a concern at all that you can see lower volumes for Sansefrenia? And just wanted to know if it's something that is immaterial.
Falco,
when you talk about Saibin, we have a at this point of the year, we have much more view. It's better because the harvest is here. However, when we talk about corn, it's much more difficult to foresee at
this time of the year,
okay? Anyway, the expectations that we have that were brought by our by the consultancy companies that we hire. That will it will be quite similar, as I talked in the presentation, to previous year. But remember that previous year was by far the best harvest that we have the best crop that we have in the year, in the history in Brazilian corn crop, while it was more than 50% higher than 2018. So if you compare it to 2019, it can be flat.
But if you compare it to 2018 and the history is much, much higher, Okay. So, but again, it's always too early to talk about corn.
Okay, okay. But just the risk confirming your guidance, you're using more or less same volumes than last year or you have a reduction for quality specifically?
The point here that what we foresee for our guidance that we have less exports of corn, okay? However, the seasonality of exports will be better for us. Why? Because we will not have the anticipation of corn and will be more better distributed by the second half of the year as usually it is, okay? So this is allow us to transport a bit more without any constraint of cost capacity.
That is foreseen in our guidance.
Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim, Goldman Sachs.
Hi, everyone. So I have two questions, if I may. First of all, very quickly on concession renewal. Any update you can provide us with on the timing? I know this is to some extent out of your control, but any update would be welcome.
And second, on the prospect for volumes from a long term perspective, we have been discussing a lot of short term issues, the coronavirus, the swine fever, BR163. But we live in a country where we lack infrastructure and then more medium, long term, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the main reason why you are so positive and you have a guidance for close to 10% volume growth for the next few years. So what are the key metrics you look at that you get comfortable with this being with this lack of infrastructure that we have in Brazil connecting the region where we produce the grains and the main ports. So could you please share your rationale behind the 10% CAGR for the upcoming years? That would be the second question.
Thank you very much.
Bruno, thank you for both questions. I was missing the first one. So let me try update here. As always, it's very difficult to come up with an accurate deadline for the Panos dynature. You saw our Secretary of Transportation saying that very soon, we will be able to sign.
But as Jumbo, I cannot give you a date for sign through. What I can tell you is that there is we are very close and AMPT is doing a very good job advancing with the adjustment in the concession agreement. And both parties are working very hard to have it as soon as possible. Regarding the second question is about the long term volumes despite of all issues that we have. I understand, Morag, what we're saying.
What we could our long term this is not only about guidance. It's our long term view on this sector, on agriculture in Brazil, on the consumption of the world, is unchanged, okay? We think that all these issues in China, Corona virus is still unclear, I think, for everybody. The swine fever, as you know, it's the consequence of swine fever for consumption of soybean seems to be positive as it will improve the consumption of the way we are feeding the pork, the pigs will improve. So that's very positive view for us.
So in some ways, we do have positive views on the future of consumption of grains in the world. Regarding supply, Brazil is for sure the local that will feed this growth of protein in China and the rest of the world. And mainly Mato Grosso is the right place to be and the place where you still have growth of area to be planted and efficiency in the growth of grains. But I think where you want to reach in what we are basing the 10% growth. And basically, there are two points here.
We will have growth of the crop, we foresee this. And yes, we will have growth in market share from Humu in the next years, okay? We are not disclosing how much this is the growth. But I think that you can buy the public numbers that you have from CONAVI, from USD and our long term guidance, I think you can easily reach to this growth of market share, okay? So these are the 2 drivers of growth of transportation.
And what you said, the poor infrastructure in Brazil is something that help us in increasing our volumes transported.
Thank you. That concludes the question and answer session for investors and analysts. Now I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. Ricardo Levin for his final consideration.
Well, in the name of Jumbo team, I would like to thank the presence of all the investors and analysts in this call. And we are working hard in the company to have a very good year for us and for our employees and for our investors. And don't forget that in March, we will have Cosanbe, both in Brazil, I think, in the 9th March in Brazil and Turkey in New York, which you can hear about all the companies, Trampos and Group and about Hubo. Because they will be able to give more details in the project and hopefully come with more news. Okay, thank you very much for all.