Thank you for waiting. Welcome to Rumo's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation. We would like to inform you that attendees will be on a listen-only mode during the presentation, after which further instructions will be provided and we'll begin the Q&A session. [Foreign language] This presentation is being recorded, and simultaneous translation is available by clicking on the Interpretation button. [Foreign language] If you are listening to the video conference in English, you have the option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking on "Mute Original Audio."
Before proceeding, we would like to reiterate that forward-looking statements are based on Rumo's Executive Board's beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and depend on circumstances that may or may not materialize. We recommend that you refer to the disclaimer on the second page of the presentation. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Felipe Saraiva, Rumo's Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Saraiva, you may begin the presentation.
Good afternoon and thank you for joining Rumo's Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Let's begin with the highlights on page three of the presentation. 2024 was a very positive year for Rumo. We delivered growth, achieved solid results, and further consolidated our railway as the leading logistics corridor in our major markets. In the grain business, we increased transported volumes despite a decline in Brazilian exports, expanding our market share in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and in the ports of Santos, Paranaguá, and São Francisco do Sul.
We also saw volume growth in other segments, with an important increase in industrial product transportation, driven by the startup of Suzano's new hardwood pulp mill in Mato Grosso do Sul. Higher transported volumes, combined with a 25% increase in average tariff, boosted our quarterly results. Adjusted net EBITDA reached BRL 1.7 billion , up 38% year- over- year. Adjusted net income was BRL 206 million , more than the double from the previous year. For the full year, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of BRL 7.7 billion and adjusted net income of BRL 2.1 billion .
Financial leverage ended the year at 1.4 times, lower than the same figure at the end of 2023, and flat compared to the previous quarter. It reinforces our financial discipline. I would like to highlight the progress of the construction of our railway in Mato Grosso. The project is at the peak execution, with more than 5,000 workers and 1,000 heavy equipment units mobilized. On page four, we present our market share gains in the quarter. We increased market share in all four highlighted operations, both in the quarter and for the full year. The growth emphasizes the key role of the railway in transporting agricultural commodities produced in the Midwest of the country.
Moving to page five, let's review our operational indicators. We improved our main efficiency metrics, even with a higher transported volume. This progress reflects our investments in infrastructure, technology, and process optimization. On page six, we present our operational and volume performance. Transported volume grew 2% in the quarter, reaching 19.9 billion RTK. The Northern Operation was the main driver of this growth, with higher volumes in industrial products, sugar, and fertilizers. The Southern Operation was impacted by extreme weather events in May and lower grain exports in the last quarter.
For the full year, we transported the all-time high level of 79.8 billion RTK, up 2.6 billion RTK from 2023. On page seven, we highlight revenue and EBITDA. Pricing was the main driver of our performance throughout 2024. We posted year-over-year increases in Q4, despite the usual seasonality of lower prices at the year-end. The railway remains the major long-haul logistics solution, essential for moving the Midwest agricultural commodities exports. In addition to providing competitiveness and resilience, the railway aligns with the decarbonization agenda of the industries we serve. On page eight, I will present the quarterly EBITDA.
Higher contribution margin was the main driver of EBITDA growth during the period. Fixed costs and operating expenses increased at a slower pace than the contribution margin and reflect the structure needed to support our growth strategy, efficiency gains, and risk management. In 2024, we completed several structural and operational adjustments. From now on, we expect our fixed costs and expenses to remain stable. On page nine, let's discuss financial results and net income. Net financial result for the quarter was BRL 735 million. The cost of debt was lower in the quarter, given the lower interest rates compared to the same quarter last year.
Other expenses increased due to the addition of the Malha Paulista agreement and the leasing of equipment for track maintenance. It's worth mentioning that our debt is materially indexed to CDI, either directly or through derivatives. On page ten, I will present our leverage and debt profile. Net debt at the end of the quarter was BRL 11 billion , and the financial leverage was at 1.4 times, flat versus the previous quarter and lower than compared to the end of 2023. In 2024, we were very active in the local capital markets, raising BRL 3 billion through new issuances at competitive costs, close to the Brazilian sovereign rates.
It highlights our strong credit profile and Rumo's broad access to capital markets, ensuring a well-balanced debt structure. Our liquidity position remained solid, with BRL 8 billion in cash and well-distributed maturities over the next coming years. On page 11, let's review our investments in the quarter. We have invested BRL 1.9 billion, allocated as follows: BRL 513 million in recurring maintenance, BRL 848 million in the Mato Grosso railway project, and BRL 551 million in other expansion projects. On the Mato Grosso railway, we are very pleased with the progress of the construction.
The infrastructure works, which forms the foundation of the railway, is advancing rapidly, and we have already completed more than half of its execution. For the superstructure, which is the visible part of the railway, we have made progress in material logistics. All of the imported rails have been received, a significant portion of the rocks is already on site, and the sleeper factory will begin deliveries in the second half of the year. Another key milestone is the construction of the Rio Vermelho Bridge, the main special structure in this first phase of the project. The bridge infrastructure has now reached the opposite bank of the river.
Additionally, the construction site for the BR-070 terminal is fully mobilized, and work continues to advance. Moving on to grain updates, start with soybeans on page 12. We are very optimistic about the 2024-2025 crop. Soybean production in Mato Grosso is expected to grow by roughly 7 million tons, driven by the expansion of planted area and the all-time high productivity level in the state. As expected, we are seeing a highly concentrated harvest, which increases logistics demand across all of the corridors and ports. Now, on page 13, let's discuss the corn outlook. We have a positive view for the 2025 second crop.
We expect healthy production levels in 2025, supported by stronger farmer margins, which provides the right incentives for the expansion of planted area. A strong dynamic in the raw material supply chain, including seeds, fertilizers, and crop defensives, further strengthens this outlook. We are closely monitoring planting progress and weather forecasts for the coming month, key factors in confirming this crop potential. So far, all the indicators point to a production level similar to the previous year. On page 14, I will present our 2025 guidance.
We are very excited about the opportunities that 2025 presents, supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals in the logistics sector. We expect another year of growth. The transported volume will be driven mostly by new segments, including the ramping up of transportation of hardwood pulp, mining commodities, and fuel. In the grain segment, we expect some modest growth, supported by more capacity for the circulation of trains, even though there's still no major expansion at the Port of Santos at this point in time.
Our EBITDA guidance reflects the positive impact of higher transported volumes. Regarding prices, we remain committed to our value-driven strategy. After three consecutive years of strong price hikes, we anticipate a stabilization in margins on a year-over-year basis. Our 2025 investment plan aligns the execution pace of our key projects, including the Greenfield railway in Mato Grosso , the capacity and safety enhancements in Malha Paulista, and the improvements in the port access in Santos. It concludes my presentation. We are now available for the Q&A session. Thank you.
We will now begin the Q&A session. Joining us today are Mr. Pedro Palma, Mr. Guilherme Machado, and Mr. Felipe Saraiva. To ask a question, please click on "Raise Hand." If your question has been answered, you can leave a queue by clicking on "Put Hand Down." We kindly ask that you ask only one question at a time so everyone gets a chance to ask a question. If we have enough time left at the end, we will have another round of questions. Questions in writing via the Q&A will be answered after the conference by Rumo's Investor Relations team. The first question is from Mr. Lucas Marquiori from BTG Pactual. Please go ahead, Mr. Marquiori.
Thank you. Hello, everyone. Good afternoon, and thanks for the call. I have a question about your volume execution. If you could provide us more information on how you built your guidance with the RTK, we know that Q1 tends to be a bit weaker. So Q2 and Q3, will they be a bit more overburdened? And would you have to consider a second semester based on your projections where there is an increase in corn exports, but it might not be that clear yet? So can you help us think about how the volume is going to be executed over the year? That would be fantastic. Thanks for your help.
Hi, Lucas. This is Guilherme. Good afternoon. How are you? Thank you for your question. When we were working on the budget and building our guidance, we included different improvements and efficiencies that we are applying to our operations, our assets. As Felipe showed, our non-grain portfolio should be expanding considerably and mobilizing significant volumes with our new pulp operation with Suzano, also bauxite volumes with CBA, and many other initiatives that we have going on. Looking at our main portfolio, which is grains, our growth should be in line with the investments we've been making in our operation.
Obviously, the fundamentals for the next crop are very, very solid. We're very constructive, very optimistic when it comes to this coming crop. What I can illustrate when it comes to our volume guidance that will have an impact on the financials is the improvements that we're making in the 135-car train test that we have been doing. It points to the fact that we can continue to increase capacity, the implementation of technology like PTC, which will allow for greater flow in the transit and dwell time of our assets, and we still have some rolling stock coming in to strengthen our operation as a whole, so we will be focusing on execution this year.
You're right. When it comes to our southern operation months, I mean, that is our prospect. Last year, there were consecutive months where we were operating at the limit of our capacity, so record capacity levels, which is a testament that we have been building operating efficiency, and that is our objective, to provide the return on the investments that we're making, so we feel very confident. It's going to be a very solid crop, and you're right about corn. We are monitoring that, but we're very positive when it comes to the next six months.
Great. Thank you, Guilherme. Have a great afternoon
The next question is from Mr. Guilherme Mendes from JP Morgan. Mr. Mendes, please go ahead.
Hello, everyone. Good afternoon, Pedro, Guilherme, and Saraiva. Thanks for taking my question. I have a follow-up question to the question that was just asked. It's very clear where your volumes are coming for next year, but it's clear that it will be a more challenging year when it comes to contracting prices. How is contracting coming in terms of soybean and corn in the first half of the year with regards to take-up rate? That would be great to hear about that. Thank you.
Hi, Guilherme. This is Guilherme. Thanks for your question, and you're giving me the opportunity to clarify a point that we have been sharing with the market in the last few months. We have made progress in our pricing. Every year and every campaign has its own specificities. You saw that farm selling was delayed last year, and we have been complying with our trading strategy. In practical terms, in our grains portfolio, we have already sold all of our meal for next year, and that is a vocation of the railway because the crushers are connected to our terminal. So to us, this will be a natural cargo, and all of that has been practically fixed.
Now, soybeans in the first half of the year were well advanced when it comes to soybeans. At the end of last year and beginning of this year, we realized that there was a delay, so we have [Foreign language] fixed some prices, and we've made progress in the last two weeks. In terms of percentage, I mean, a percentage of the soybean will happen [Foreign language] on spot prices. We have been faced with similar scenarios in previous crops, and it's a natural market dynamic. So we'll be fixing those prices over the months. The percentage that hasn't been fixed yet, but the percentage that has is quite robust, and it will give us great operating dynamics.
Now, second half of the year, corn, we have made progress in fixing prices as well. As per our strategy, there is a percentage that we will be trading in the first half of the year. Then we'll be more contracted. We're also monitoring planting and harvest, but we're confident that we have the right commercial strategy, and it will comply with the strategy that we have been designing over the last two years. And it will also be providing us with great operating dynamics.
We're confident that it will be a strong year, strong fundamentals, concentrated crops, and so naturally, that will favor the most efficient logistics solution. We have been making the right investments to provide precisely that to our clients. So we remain confident and continue to follow our operational strategy.
Great. That was very clear. Have a good afternoon.
The next question is from Mr. Alberto Valerio from UBS. Please go ahead, Mr. Valerio.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. Saraiva, Guilherme, Pedro. I'd like to hear about future projects. The government has been quite vocal when it comes to rail projects. More recently, we heard that there may be a new bidding process for the stretch between Açailândia and Barcarena. There's the FICO coming out as well, and the West and South networks. Could you give us an update on how Rumo is seeing these new projects the government is launching and what will happen to the West and South networks? That would be great. Thank you.
Hi, Alberto. This is Pedro. Thanks for the question. It's quite a broad question, so I will take the opportunity to comment on our whole portfolio. First point is that we're highly focused on executing our projects, our ongoing projects. I'm very happy with the progress we've been making in the Mato Grosso rail, using the Paulista network capacity and the new projects in the Santos port, including the Santos project in the terminal with CHS. So just to make it very clear right off the bat, this is our priority. Now, obviously, considering the system and our comment on the West and South networks, the South network is a very relevant asset to us.
As you know, the South Network [Foreign language] transactions will be due in the first half of 2027, so we have reorganized internally so we can focus more on that operation and so that we can be ready to have the best negotiation possible for that asset together with the granting authority. Because not only do we want to manage that asset the best we can right now, but also to have the best future possible for the concession of the South Network.
What happened at the end of last year is the Minister of Transportation created a working group with the ANTT and the Infra S.A. to discuss how that network will be designed so that it can be sustainable over time and so that it can keep up with the growth of agribusiness, especially in Paraná, and also so that it can be attractive to any operator in the system. Obviously, we're working very closely with the government on that. We will be making contributions. We are making contributions and [Foreign language] discussions will take a while before we have a material fact to disclose.
But what I can say right now is that the working group has been set up and we're making our contributions, and obviously, in 2025, discussions will make progress. As for the West Network, I think the news is that at the end of last year, I think it was in December, the government sent the discussion of remodeling that network to the Court of Accounts, and the working group that was set up for that process is now at the TCU. It has just been received by the court, so now they're going to open the process and discuss potential designs. Come to a conclusion on the exit for that network.
Rumo has not committed any capital to that process. I just want to make that clear. Rumo has not made any commitments to the future design of that network, but we are working actively with the government so that we can come to a feasible design that can be the best design for the country. But again, Rumo has not made any commitments to invest anything in that asset. As for the other projects, Alberto, you mentioned the government's projects. To be honest with you, we are monitoring and looking into all the different rail projects in Brazil.
But I think there are two initiatives. It's too soon to have any position about those projects. Again, I'll reiterate, our team is focusing on executing our projects, our investments. We have a very solid competitive position right now. As we move forward with the Central network, as we move forward with the Mato Grosso railway, the more competitive we'll become.
All the other projects and all other potential avenues will be taken into consideration in a timely fashion. Right now, for the time being, we're just discussing ideas and not actual concrete projects. When the time is right, [Foreign language] we will look into these projects, but always continue to focus on what we're doing right now and the investments that we have committed to.
Great. Thank you so much.
The next question is from Mr. Gabriel Rezende from Itaú BBA. Please go ahead, Mr. Rezende.
Hi, Pedro. Hi, Guilherme and Felipe. Thanks for the call. Our question is about your CapEx guidance. If you talk about the range, what might be the opportunities and risks to remain at the top of the range or the bottom of the range, and what kind of effects are you considering for your investment expectations for the year? And how will that variable affect your CapEx prospects?
Hi, Gabriel. This is Guilherme. The guidance includes [Foreign language] a ll these projects that Pedro just mentioned. We continue to be highly mobilized and focusing on the extension of the first stage of the Mato Grosso rail, coming to BR-070, building the terminal, and all the other initiatives that Saraiva mentioned during the presentation. These are ongoing initiatives. We have ongoing [Foreign language] projects and will continue at a higher level as we did in 2024, which was at the execution peak of that phase.
In addition to that, we also have the Paulista network duties. These are considerable investments to make sure that that network has the right flow because it's key to us. Also, investments in the Port of Santos to improve traffic in the region. [Foreign language] Also, the work in the port through the partnership with CHS. So the first stages of work, probing both onshore and offshore, those are ongoing as well. In addition to the recurring CapEx, [Foreign language] so that range includes [Foreign language] potential variations, but I just want to point out that the CapEx is an increment to that of 2024. We'll continue to invest and to execute on those projects without any interruptions across the board.
We're completely confident that they will be leading to higher efficiency and additional capacity that will lead to even better results in the future. So there may be variations, but the message we want you to leave here with is that we will continue to increase investments, and [Foreign language] that's the dynamic we'll be pursuing in 2025.
Fantastic. Thank you.
T he next question is from Mr. Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI. Mr. Mizusaki, please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Just a follow-up question to Gabriel's question about CapEx. Could you confirm? [Foreign language] The investments that will be made in Lucas this year? Considering Saraiva's presentation. What about 2026? How much will you be investing to conclude the project?
Hi, Victor. This is Guilherme. This year [Foreign language] to continue phase I of the Mato Grosso rail, we're talking about BRL 2 billion . That's the amount we should be executing. Next year [Foreign language] will be around that as well. We're still finalizing the assessment, but we'll disclose that when we disclose the guidance at the end of the year, depending on some fine-tuning. [Foreign language] By then we'll have a better outlook on the execution in 2025, and we'll be able to know what the final figures will be for 2026.
That's great. Thank you.
The next question is from Mr. Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. Mr. Amorim, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Could you comment on the dynamics of volume looking forward? There are some bottlenecks in the Port of Santos, as you mentioned, which will limit the growth in grains for the time being. There are major investments that are maturing, so port capacity will increase this year, next year, and there's also a potential trigger to accelerate volume, which is the implementation of the expansion in Mato Grosso.
So could you help us understand when might we be able to see an increase in capacity coming from these investments? That will be very helpful, be it through the entry of the new terminals or other initiatives at the Port of Santos, or if you could give us an idea when the Mato Grosso extension will begin to contribute with the volume, will it be first, second half next year, or maybe 2027? That would be great. Thank you.
Hi, Bruno. Good afternoon. This is Felipe. Our system in the Santos corridor is probably operating roughly 35 million tons. In 2024, it was 32 million tons of grains transported, and that number should go up a bit more this year. That is implicit in our guidance. As of 2026, that system will go through a new stage with the block of investments both in the Port of Santos and circulation works in the system, and obviously Mato Grosso with the new terminal.
So in 2026, at the Port of Santos, we'll be concluding the Outeirinhos loop line, which is key to move cargo on the right side of the port, and STS11 will be ramping up because COFCO should be concluding the works at the end of this year, beginning of next year. So we're talking about 10 million tons, additional tons to Rumo, which we can pursue as of 2026.
Then there will be the BR-070 new terminal, the first terminal of the extension with 10 million tons of capacity, and it will go into operation this year. It's hard to say exactly when it will go into operation this year, but we are working with a scenario that we'll have cargo at that terminal in 2026, and we'll provide more details in the guidance at the end of the year about how that's going to be executed. And there are also lots of initiatives in the Paulista network which are maturing now.
So the updates of the stretches, the extension of the train to 135 cars, better technology to coordinate and license trains that will be bringing in an additional circulation capacity to be able to transport the additional 10 million tons. That's it. As of 2026, we won't be capturing 10 million tons from one year to the next. So then we're going to have to consider the market in terms of what kind of an increase we'll have year- on- year, but that's the volume we'll be pursuing. The new terminal in partnership with CHS will bring in another 9 million tons of capacity to move grains and another million in the system. That is not the single project at the Port of Santos.
We also have some work at T39, and we're talking about T39 plus the partnership with CHS, probably towards the end of the decade, 2028- 2029, depending on when the work starts, and let's not forget, we're licensing that new infrastructure now, and that's happening at the same time as everything else that's happened. So we'll increase capacity at the Port of Santos, and also we'll have the new, the second stage of the Mato Grosso rail. So to summarize what I said, we'll have a first capacity increase as of 2026, and then another increase as of 2028-2029, towards the end of the decade.
Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Mr. Filipe Nielsen from Citi. Mr. Nielsen, please go ahead.
Hello, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Most of my questions have been answered, but I'd like to hear from you in terms of potential divestments, as well as agreements with operators in new terminals. You just mentioned the BR-070 terminal. I remember that was one of the things Rumo was pursuing new partners to have terminals [Foreign language] inland in Lucas do Rio Verde. So what have you been seeing and discussing when it comes to selling assets as well as potential partnerships with other players? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. [Foreign language] We always look into potential opportunities in our portfolio, and we have been executing on some of them with partners that may or may not be our clients. [Foreign language] To recycle our portfolio. That's been happening over the last few years in different ways. You saw [Foreign language] the divestment we made of part we had in T16 and T19 and similar initiatives. So as part of our process to look into that portfolio, we've also made some joint investments that are client investments in our operations.
For instance, an operation that we consider to be very constructive, like the acquisition of ROLLINGSTOCK that we did at the end of last year in partnership with COFCO, which to us was beneficial in many different ways. So COFCO is a key client. It helps us diversify our base, bringing in new ROLLINGSTOCK . It's a long-term partnership. So that's a recurring exercise for us. It's part of the company's internal dynamics. Right now, there's nothing that we can comment on that is relevant, but should anything arise, we will be sharing it with you.
Thank you. That was very clear.
Leave them there. Please click on the raise hand button. If your question has been answered, you can leave it too by clicking on put hand down. The next question is from Ms. Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley. Ms. Rizzo, please go ahead.
[Foreign language] Hi, good afternoon. Can you hear me okay?
[Foreign language] Yes, Júlia, please go ahead.
Guilherme, c ould you clarify a point, please? On the CapEx guidance, you mentioned BRL 2 billion going in to look up this year and perhaps the same amount next year. It wasn't very clear to me, or would it imply an increase in the CapEx expected for the first stage? Could you provide us some more color on that, please?
[Foreign language] Hi, Julia. Thank you. And thanks for giving me the opportunity to clarify that point. The Mato Grosso project is, i t's important to say that the guidance we disclosed last year remains valid. We have spent last year, 2024, roughly 2023-2024, BRL 2 billion, and we have another BRL 3 billion to be invested in that project. So that adds up to BRL 5 billion.
Considering 2023-2024, we've spent BRL 2 billion, we have BRL 3 billion left to spend. So this year, in 2025, we should spend most of that. Just to reiterate what I said in the previous question, close to BRL 2 billion, and the remainder should be invested in 2026. If it wasn't clear, thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify that. I want to be completely transparent with you.
Great. Okay, so may I ask a question about what Felipe said during the presentation about expanding the infrastructure and that would justify the increase in costs and expenses last year? [Foreign language] What were the main drivers for that increase, and what are you expecting for next year? [Foreign language] Will it be growing less considering the infrastructure has probably been adjusted now?
Hi, Julia, this is Felipe. In the last few years, there have been many changes in our portfolio. In 2019, the Central network came into the portfolio, many new terminals. We had Iturama, São Simão, Rio Verde, Alvorada that we started last year. We also expanded new pulp operations, new liquid operations, and in 2019- 2021, there was also an expansion in the capacity of the Rondonópolis terminal. So the company has grown, and its operating structure has also grown to keep up with the company.
Now, in terms of portfolio and growth, we have also been implementing new initiatives, new ongoing projects, and obviously our personnel and infrastructure has kept up with that. So that company restructuring was mainly concentrated [Foreign language] in 2024. The current structure should settle now, and the fixed cost should continue to grow at the same rate as inflation. We're not expecting the same kind of increases that we saw in the previous years.
Thank you.
The next question is from Mr. Lucas Marquiori from BTG Pactual. Mr. Marquiori, please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, thanks for taking my follow-up question. Still on the volume execution, could you update us on the shipping process in Mato Grosso? We've seen quite a lot of rain in Mato Grosso. [Foreign language] Should we be worried about how the crop is going to be shipped and considering the delays in the corn crop. Does that imply a risk to logistics considering the ramp-up in Q2? Thank you.
Hi, Lucas, this is Felipe again. [Foreign language] I'll start answering your question by [Foreign language] what you asked about the crop. There has been considerable progress in the soybean harvest, so we have harvested over 70% of the soybean crop and [Foreign language] 70% of the corn has been planted. So in terms of the crop, [Foreign language] the risk for the planting window in the double-crop corn has been overcome. A large part of the double-crop corn in Mato Grosso will have been planted by February.
In terms of operations and the weather, in the last few weeks, we have been operating according to our plan for the beginning of the year. [Foreign language] The cargo arrival at our terminals, especially terminal in the North network in Rio Verde and the Central network, has increased as of the middle of February. We're hoping that will gain traction because now the harvested crops will begin to be exported.
Great. Thank you, Felipe.
Our next question is from Mr. Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Mr. Amorim.
[Foreign language] Thanks for taking my second question. It's a follow-up question on your comment about more stable guidance and a more stable pricing, which makes sense because a while back road transportation prices went up, you caught up. So, considering the structural big picture, prices should become stable. On the other hand, we're going into a year now where the company has contracted less than it did in previous years. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but you have contracted less this year until the end of last year, which meant that you were more exposed at the beginning of this year to, if not a spot dynamics, but closer to the spot market.
So, in a strong crop scenario, that suggests a higher pricing power. So, if you're less contracted with a strong crop, there may be a pricing upside that hasn't been included in the guidance. So, could you comment on that, please? Thank you.
Hi, Bruno. Thanks for the question. This is Guilherme. [Foreign language] When I was answering Guilherme's first question about our trading dynamics, we're highly contracted for the first half of the year in soybeans, given everything we've seen in terms of harvesting, as Saraiva just mentioned. So that's in line with [Foreign language] our strategy for the year. [Foreign language] So this is happening gradually and we believe our commercial strategy [Foreign language] makes complete sense considering what we are set off to do, and catching up with a historical gap and, you know, charging a fair price for our services. So considering the current dynamics, we're fixing prices as [Foreign language] the crop unfolds. What we have included in our guidance is a considerable EBITDA increase, considering the combination of price and volume, and that's what we should be seeing during the year.
As I said, part of those volumes will be sold on the spot market. We'll be doing that gradually, [Foreign language] when we c onclude the sales for the first s econd half, and then we'll see what the corn dynamics will be. So we're very confident that this will be happening in the next couple of months, and [Foreign language] we'll adjust our operation based on the volumes dynamics. So there will be a smaller share of that that will be fixed on the spot market.
[Foreign language] That's great. Thank you.
[Foreign language] The next question is from Mr. Pedro Bruno from XP. Mr. Bruno, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question, which is about what Pedro said [Foreign language] safety, which is a non-negotiable value to you. I know that there are many sides to safety, but [Foreign language] in a year where [Foreign language] you're less exposed to long-term contracts, considering the rail operation, safety becomes even more relevant [Foreign language] in the next couple of months, a higher concentration in the first half of the year and potentially for the second half as well, so I'd like to hear from you [Foreign language] what that means [Foreign language] in your everyday life.
It mentions a couple of areas where the company is not happy with performance and the peak capacity has led to an increase in the number of accidents, and I'm sure that's part of business as usual, but if you could provide us a little bit more information about that, because it's a very important topic, especially considering the risk of the beginning of the year, but also structurally speaking?
That's a great question, Pedro. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to talk about that topic. It was very well put. As I said in my letter, safety and security is a non-negotiable value to us, and at the same time, [Foreign language] we know that we're not doing the best that we can, and that's precisely why I mentioned that in my letter. We are not satisfied with the safety culture that we have at the company right now. Let me just qualify why I said that. In 2024, and let me just split that into two things: personal safety and rail safety.
On the personal safety side, there weren't any serious incidents, but there has been an increase [Foreign language] in the frequency rate, which happened mainly due to new people coming into the operation, third-party contracts working in the projects. So, we saw in our execution indicators that frequency has increased, and the fact that we have new people coming into the operation isn't and shouldn't be an excuse for that rate to increase. [Foreign language] That just shows to me that our safety culture is not solid enough. It's not as solid as it should be. New people coming in should be adopting the standards that are already part of the organization.
That's a very relevant point to us, and we're going over structure, personnel, and the work that is done to make sure that the culture of safety can be completely solid and fully permeate the organization. That's something I'm doing and all company leaders are doing. We have full visibility of the process, and it's very clear to us that that's something that we need to work on. [Foreign language] So, that's the key for the organization.
Nothing that we do in terms of value creation or financial results makes sense if we cannot make absolute certain that everyone who works with us can go home safely and come back to work the next day safely, so we know we have some work to do on that front, and we are working on it. As for the rail safety component, there is work to be done as well, but here we're talking about the frequency of rail incidents. Even though there was an increase in volume, it was lower than that of last year, so we are on a very relevant and solid journey to reduce rail incidents, and I'm happy with how we've been progressing, but we need to do more.
In 2024, there were three accidents that were a bit more serious because of the number of cars and the cargo that was involved in some of those operations, [Foreign language] but it's not the same as it is when it comes to personal safety. It's not a cultural matter, but we have to carry on working on it and doing the best of our efforts to minimize the number of incidents. S o, safety goes hand in hand not only with company growth, but the quality of our operation, so at the end of the day, the better you manage your operation, the better it is, and the safer it is, and the safer the operation is, the better the production process.
That's great. Thank you.
The next question is from Mr. Rogério Araujo from Bank of America. Please go ahead, Mr. Araujo.
Hi, good afternoon. Hi, Pedro. Hi, Guilherme. Hi, Saraiva. Thanks for taking my question.[Foreign language] I have a follow-up question about the guidance range. It was BRL 600 million. Last year, you mentioned BRL 500 million for the range, but I think last year [Foreign language] you were more certain that you were going to deliver more because [Foreign language] more had been signed already. So, how sure are you of that range based on the crop volume expectations? [Foreign language] How much demand can you anticipate [Foreign language] for the guidance price? What are the risks that are not in your control and that might push you off the range, both downwards or upwards?
And in terms of volume growth, we're talking about 4.5%-10% growth implicit compared from December to February. In 2021, I remember that you were working more in the spot market, and you talked a lot about operating predictability. So that volume growth, how much of that? And the spot market, how much of that can be a problem considering a lack of operating predictability? And your CapEx guidance, how much of that CapEx range is coming from investments in the new port terminal? Thank you.
Hi, there Rogério. This is Guilherme. Thanks for the questions. Well, let's start with the EBITDA. Obviously, as you can imagine, that number is part of our internal budgeting process, and it's how we see prospects for the year. We're very confident that we will be delivering this year, as I have reiterated in my previous answers, based on the fundamentals for the crop or [Foreign language] our competitive environment or our pricing strategy.
[Foreign language] As for the range, [Foreign language] if you'll allow me that's a marginal variation compared to last year, [Foreign language] the 3.5 variation upwards or downwards in the EBITDA, but the main message is that there's solid growth, which is capturing efficiencies of the investments we've been making, [Foreign language] focusing on costs, expenses, and return on our investments. So, that includes, EBITDA includes a metric that measures the company growth and [Foreign language] how solidly we have been running our operation. [Foreign language] In terms of CAPEX, we've been making investments, and for the port project this year, it's still a timid amount.
We are looking into onshore and offshore, and that will require some investment as well as preparing the area, but it's still a timid amount when compared to the whole. I think I missed one of your questions, right? Or have I answered all of them?
It's about operational predictability. In 2021, you mentioned that, and that kind of got in the way of your operation, and it was because you were working a lot in the spot market, so you couldn't organize the order of the trains. So I was wondering how you've progressed since then and the risk of lack of operating predictability since you're operating more in the spot market.
Oh, okay. Got it. Thanks. Well, what I can say is that in the last two years, we have been making considerable investments to make the system more fluid, and that has been captured year- on- year. So that means we have become more resilient when it comes to our operations to [Foreign language] deal with the market that we're faced with, how it grows, and its challenges. During this call, we've talked about different investments that we've been making.
Saraiva talked about investments that are being made in the port, in technology with the PTC, [Foreign language] which is an on-board control, so that we can make our operation more fluid and more efficient dwell time, also updating some major stretches in the Paulista network.
So all of that will make us more resilient and help us adapt our operation to whatever market dynamics might take place, and that will be translated into results, obviously. So, as I said, every year is different, and our commitment is to focus on efficiency, safety, as Pedro mentioned earlier, and to capture consistent results for the company.
Great. That's very clear. Thanks. It was very helpful.
Q&A session is now concluded. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Guilherme Machado for his closing remarks.
[Foreign language] Thanks, everyone, for joining us on this call. We're very happy with everything we've delivered in 2024, and I'd like to thank [Foreign language] everyone who was part of this process, our employees who contributed to these results. I'd like to thank our shareholders for their trust and to say that 2025 has very solid fundamentals. We're very excited about the work we're doing on all fronts, and it will be a year of execution in all of our operations. We want to make sure that we have enough fluidity and execution to meet our client needs, and we'll also be executing on projects that will pave the road to the company's future. Thank you for joining us, and we'll see you on the next conference call.
The 2024 conference call is now concluded. Thank you for joining us. Have a great day. Questions in writing will be answered by the IR team by email. Thank you.