Morning. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the video conference of Vibra to announce the results of the second quarter of 2025. This video conference is being recorded and a replay will be available at the company's website, www.ri.vibraenergia.com. The slide deck will also be available for download. All participants will be connected in listen-only mode to the video conference during the company's presentation. We are going to start a questions and answers session when further instructions will be provided. Translation is available by clicking on the interpretation icon at the bottom of your Zoom screen. After clicking on Language Interpretation, choose your preferred language. For those listening to the video conference in English, the original audio in Portuguese can be muted by clicking on Mute Original Audio.
Before continuing, I would like to stress that forward-looking statements are based on beliefs and assumptions of the company's management and are based on information currently available. Forward-looking statements may involve risks and uncertainties considering that they regard future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors, analysts, and journalists should consider the events related to the macroeconomic scenario. The industry and other factors may need results to be materially different from those expressed in such forward-looking statements today. Here with us in this conference call we have Mr. Ernesto Pousada, CEO, and Mr. Augusto Ribeiro, CFO, in addition to some of the other executive officers of the company. Now I'd like to give the floor to Mr. Ernesto Pousada who's going to start the presentation. Mr. Pousada, please. Floor is yours.
Ladies and gentlemen, it's a pleasure to be here in our earnings call for the second quarter of 2025. On the first slide, I would like to share with you a little bit of our resilience and focus on execution so we have a growth in market share and profitability. Our Adjusted EBITDA is BRL 1.5 billion in the second quarter with operating cash flow of BRL 800 million. The first half of the year shows stronger demand, there's some growth, and the cash flow in the second quarter was better than last year. Moreover, there have been two non-recurring effects in our cash flow. The first one is the operation with risk. Considering the IOF had stopped doing this operation and this happened especially at the end of June, which had a significant impact in our cash flow this quarter because of this operation.
The IOF has been taken out, so the cash flow is back to normal just as the strategy. Because of our business strategy, we on purpose have kind of held our inventory so that we could have a healthier inventory along the quarter. What we are seeing in the third quarter in terms of cash flow, it's in the first month of the first quarter we are seeing this. The company's cash flow is going to be certainly very strong as compared to the second quarter. We are advanced greatly in making the most of synergies of Comerc. We are going to exceed the numbers previously announced and we are working to do that by especially expediting capture. We thought we are going to do in 2025, 2026. Most of those synergies will be captured already in 2025.
We have advanced a lot in the results and synergies of Comerc in terms of leverage. Without DLCs we have reached 2.9x net debt/EBITDA. This is a target for the company definitely to reduce our leverage and what we attained with the cash generation stronger this quarter we see in the first month three year reduction of leverage. It has started and it's the company's pledge to get to the end of the year below 2.5x . We are working hard and before the end of the year we are going to deliver leverage below 2.5. The company is very much focused on bringing down leverage in the second half of the year. Our Adjusted EBITDA margin was BRL 143 per cubic meter with a sales margin growth.
When we look at the Adjusted EBITDA margin, taking out the sales of assets and tax gains, bringing back inventory effect that had the effect of BRL 48 per cubic meter. This leads us to a recurring margin of BRL 161 per cubic meter. Compared to the first quarter we have a margin that is about BRL 10 higher per cubic meter, keeping our recurring margin level between BRL 150, BRL 160 per cubic meter. The company is managing to grow 0.3 percentage points in market share as compared to first quarter 2025. We have been growing in market share and keeping the same margin level, which is a challenge and now we were able to advance in that direction and as a reminder we did not drop from one quarter to the other. We are going to grow gradually too. There is no silver bullet, there is no magic here.
What we are going to do is to gradually get more and more engaged with our network, with our customers in B2B so that we can gain market share in a structural way. This is not a one-off gain. We want to advance structurally and this is what we're going to deliver quarter on quarter. Some quarters are going to be stronger, others weaker, but always at this level of margin and always increasing market share. Another highlight is the net growth with 43 new service stations in the quarter. The margin this quarter is BRL 161 per cubic meter. When we bring matter inventory effect, which was quite significant, the market share growth and also new service stations. In this first six months of the year, we have more than 92 new service stations for the year.
This is a very significant time in terms of growth and engagement with our dealership. Another highlight in the growth of market share is ethanol. We grew 0.7 percentage points in ethanol and we also doubled our ethanol margin. Ethanol has joined to contribute to our result, trying to find a better balance between the growth in share and margin. We could double our ethanol margin at the same time as growing market share. Our ROIC was 14.3%. Now I'd like to give the floor to Augusto to continue the presentation.
Thank you so much, Ernesto. Good morning everyone. Before going specifically into numbers, I would like to remind you and to stress what was said before. We end with parity open and then we ended with it closed.
Thanks to all operations and improvements that we have implemented over the last two years in terms of planning, offer and supply and everything that we did, the company has presented dynamic responses and capacity to keep our commercial margins, which is what we monitor on an everyday basis, expenses and how we are navigating. We had the growth in market share and this will be the dynamic. We are not going to have explosive market share gains in a market such as this. It's going to be slowly based on operational efficiency. As I said before, we have approximately BRL 420 million and I might not mention it over the next few slides and obviously all the members here do not exclude this effect. Beginning on the slide, in any Adjusted EBITDA, we had BRL 1.472 billion consolidated, BRL 248 million for Vibra and BRL 224 million for Comerc.
This is accounting the XTake. For Comerc it's BRL 274 million. Taking the guidance that we published for 2025 in operating cash flow, Ernesto, we delivered BRL 880 million consolidated, BRL 580 million at Vibra, BRL 228 million at Comerc. Augusto mentioned the two main events that we had. Those are two transition events between the second and the third quarter. First, the IOF and the second was a decision of the company made in terms of inventory management. We had inventory above planned. The good news at the same time is to have a report in the half of the second quarter. We have almost 45 days of execution, and we can say that these two effects are already fully back into the company's cash.
In terms of adjusted net income and adjusted, with takeout, the future discounts from Comerc and net income, we had BRL 493 million consolidated with break even in Comerc and basically BRL 500 million, BRL 494 million for Vibra. On the next slide, this is where you can see the history for many years in terms of deliveries. In the second quarter, the company had 4% growth as compared to the same quarter in 2024 and also compared to the first quarter of 2024. In terms of fuel oil, we grew year on year. Now, when we analyze adjusted expenses, you can see a 5% reduction as compared to first quarter 2025 and a growth of 17% versus Q2 2024.
It is important to emphasize that most of this growth in expenses comes from transactions, especially with B2B customers, where we have commitments for investment and growth in the expense line, but also with assured profitability because of the gross margin. Those are good expenses, but they demand some expenses that need to be investment. Year on year, expenses grow. Now, when we look at the margin these expenses are weighed, and with that regard, we mentioned that we are growing consistently in the company's Adjusted EBITDA margin. Ernesto mentioned we had 161 in the first quarter, commercial margin above what we delivered in the first quarter of 2025 and in the second quarter of 2024, which was like 150, 155. This demonstrates our capacity to bring growth while keeping our profitability.
On the next slide, talking about capital allocation, our goal here is to get to the end of the year below 2.5 and 2.9 is the peak in internal projections. We were seeing June as a peak leverage after Comerc. The second half of the year is slightly smaller in terms of result because in the second half seasonality is always bigger inside of Vibra and in the half of the third quarter. As a reminder, this 2.9, if you separate and you can see Vibra and Comerc, we have 2.6 for Vibra and 4.7 for Comerc. CapEx, as I had said before, we have some levers and our leverage is a more modest investment in CapEx considering all the decisions that the company made to improve our capital structure.
We reached BRL 441 million in Q2 in contrast with BRL 590 million in the first quarter, so a reduction in Vibra and even in Comerc. When we are maturing the remaining investments, especially in distributed generation growth compared to last year in bonuses, which is related to the net increase in taxes, market share, and all of them with return above the company's ROIC. Now as to net, the adjusted net income. This is impacted by inventory adjustment, which is BRL 493 million in Q2 2025, close to BRL 1 billion. That's excluding this effect. We paid out dividends in the second quarter of 2025. We paid BRL 350 million. On the next slide you can see our network. It has had the growth of 5% in its volume compared to first quarter 2025 and stable as compared to the year before. Growth has two components.
We have kept our market share stable for the network and we grew for non-branded market share. Growth with profitability is important to emphasize, the non-branded. By building relationship and all the possibilities, this is a market that is relevant and Vibra with the opportunity, we work to operate in a profitable way. On the next slide, as Ernesto mentioned, we grew the number of gas stations. We totaled 7,989 service stations. We totaled year- on- year + 97 stations in 2025, and BR Mania grew 9%. Now on the B2B, we've had 4% growth in the Adjusted EBITDA as compared to the year before. Of course, here affected in comparison with the first quarter because of loss of inventory, growing volume as compared, 2% growth as compared to the second. The first quarter of 2025 without fuel oil.
In diesel and aviation, growing strongly in this market, 5% for diesel as compared to the first quarter of 2025. In aviation, we grew 2% compared to last year, basically - 2% versus Q1 2025. Market share overall is close to 60% of the Brazilian market. When you see the diesel market share and the BR market share, the B2B dynamics are close to what we said before. We had the fast growth of market share in B2B at certain times. We had an adjustment in profitability also. Profitability grows, profitability goes down a little bit, and then it grows. The important thing is that the growth curve defines a trend quarter after quarter with incremental growth in market share. This is what we seek for the whole business, especially in B2B. On the next slide you can see the lubricants. For lubricants, the growth was significant in volume.
We grew 6% in volume compared to the year before and 7% compared to first quarter 2025 when we analyzed market share. There were 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, and 0.8 percentage points compared to Q1 25. Very significant movement. Very well engaged today. The market provides good opportunities in terms of lubricants, especially for Lubrax products. On the next slide you can see a little bit about Comerc. Comerc, as I said before, is at stake in terms of the Adjusted EBITDA 228 in terms of operating cash flow. Just emphasizing a few points here, this 228 in operational cash flow, there was an EBITDA conversion into cash of 83% as the projections for investment. As we realize investments, we are keeping good conversion of EBITDA into cash. In terms of synergies, this is on track and we are implementing OpEx as expected.
Liability management, there is a remaining part for the second half of the year, but we are almost in final stages and tax efficiency is expected to begin in early 2026. On slide number 12 you can see a little bit about our operating units inside Comerc. We have 100% of our capacity already delivered and the 364 MW that have been delivered in wind. We have 110 plants already implemented, built, and we'll get to 130 at the end of the investment cycle, getting to a total of approximately 420 MW of distributed generation. In centralized generation, we had a growth in wind because the wind season was better, with a smaller curtailment of 10%. However, in centralized solar generation, this is where we had the most significant impact of curtailment, almost 20% in the period.
This curtailment effect is a little bit of a resource, but the curtailment effect led us to smaller generation in the second quarter versus the first quarter of 25, of 75%. Against 84.2, the capacity to generate and deliver energy of operating units is very, very high. It's highly efficient. Without curtailment, we would be operating close to 96%. When we look at distributed generation, you can see 87.2% in contrast with 95.5% in P50. This is because of the ramp up and new operational units going live. The plants go live and the launch, there's a minor inefficiency, but operations are going well and they're being released according to program.
As to the trader, we get a good realization, but the main reason for this is the uncertainty that we have today in the market and the company decided to incur in less risk to avoid possible future losses considering the uncertainties that we are going through right now. The trader today, we are around BRL 439 million. Now I will give the floor back to Ernesto.
Going back to our non-negotiable ESG principles, in terms of governance, we have launched the first integrated report of Vibra Energia in the new format that we call integrated report. In terms of environment, our decarbonization journey continues. We had about 500 greenhouse gas emission inventories completed for clients. We mapped over 47 million tons of CO2 equivalent. We joined the movement for racial equity, Mover, and the main movement that we have now in terms of the social is Zero Sexual Violence movement.
In May, we intensified our actions. We placed an impact of almost 10 million people in the Copa Truck, Stock Car, and also some NGOs that are all over Brazil, such as Pequeno Nazareno. There were donations through our gas station app, Premier. We are advancing greatly in this movement, which is very significant for us to make a change where Brazil has very poor indicators. Before moving to the Q&A, I would just like to emphasize a few points. In the second half, the company remains very much focused on growing in margin. We'll continue to grow share as we lost gradually. We're going to recover share gradually and Vibra will grow again at the margin levels that you saw before. You're going to see this growth keeping margins.
The second focus that we have, and it's not in order of priority, is the reduction of leverage and net debt. There is a commitment from management to get to the end of the year at less than 2.5x Net Debt over EBITDA. We are very much focused on our capital structure to assure that we are reducing the company's debt and we are going to have a second half with higher share, higher margins, and more cash. This is going to be the second half of the year that we have already started seeing in the first days of the third quarter. Now let's move to our questions and answer session.
We are now going to start our questions and answer session for investors and analysts. Our first question comes from Ms. Monique Greco from Itaú BBA. Liz, you may ask your question.
Hello. Good morning everyone. Thank you so much for allowing me to ask questions. I'm going to ask two questions, Ernesto, just follow on on what you said. I think the message of growth in share with margin, this is very clear. I think that this quarter was the clear turning point. Can we expect for the third quarter the continuation of the gain in share and what can we think in terms of margin levels considering that you are already seeing in June, in August, arbitrage is close and there are the measures of the buy events of ethanol. You said that you're going to have a higher volume and higher margin. If you give us some color what you've been seeing in July and August. The second question is about lubricants. Last call, you said that considering the opportunities that you could see two years in one in terms of growth in expansion of EBITDA for this segment. Are you keeping this vision and how are you seeing the profitability level of this sector?
Good morning Monique. Thank you for the questions. In fact, the second half of the year, typically every second half of the year, they have higher demand and with better margins and better volumes too. This is being seen now in the beginning of the third quarter. We have 40 days in, 45 days into the six months that lie ahead of us or we have more five months. It's still difficult to make a full forecast. We want to grow market share. The size of what we see can be 0.2, 0.3, 0.5. We are not going to see a growth of 2% in market share.
This is not our goal. We want to have gradual growth because it needs to be structural. It's not spot, it's a growth that we're building so that it is long lasting, so that we have it in the long term. Our strategy of branding, our stringing of growing volumes with unbranded units, this is important and our strategy is very much based on the principles of structural growth. We should expect a structural margin of Vibra for this growth of about BRL 150–BRL 160 per cubic meter. This is what we're seeing. Sometimes it might be slightly higher or lower, but structurally what we are seeing is our margin to be BRL 150, BRL 160 per barrel with growth. We are very happy we are seeing the first movements of fighting illegal markets providing effective results. We look at that, monophasic ethanol is good. We could advance in the unbranded.
We doubled our ethanol margin, so we have a good balance in terms of volume growth with margins. Despite back and forth, the thing of CBIO is significant. What we are seeing is some impact for several distributors who are not buying CBIO, have now started buying, and we are seeing this in the market. These two actions are having an impact, and once again there is no silver bullet. We are not going to solve it overnight or in the short term. There is a long-term journey, and through ICL we are going to be consistent and resilient so that we can solve the whole market and solve this practice so that everyone can play legally. We are optimistic in terms of growth with margin for the second half of the year. About lubricants, we are seeing a market that is better.
We have been growing above what we had planned, and we will advance more than we had planned initially. This is a way of saying two in one. What we are seeing, our plan in the long term, what we structured for Lubrax, for the lubricant, especially in volume, there is something in margin, but especially in volume. We have been able to advance in markets where we didn't operate before, such as the O and M. We are getting to those markets, and it's not just a sale, but it becomes a reference, a recommendation, and then we can advance in a structured way in these markets.
Thank you very much Ernesto, Augusto, and the whole team.
Our next question is from Mr. Luiz Carvalho from BTG .
Ernesto and Augusto, thank you very much for taking my question. The first thing I would like to understand is the impact. What can you see in terms of the positive impact of CBIO regulation where this is very small, monophasic ethanol? What is the discussion about biodiesel within diesel? This regulation, more taxes, this is more a tax, and Vibra is going to the level of almost BRL 8 billion of accumulated credits. When we look at the payments of taxes in the future, we're not seeing the companies paying taxes for quite a long time. I could understand your perception with regards to this tax aspect. If you allow me, there's another question, one last question about Comerc. In the second half, this curtailment dynamics will not be solved. When we analyze the results of the first half of the year, it's going to be slightly below the BRL 1.3 billion EBITDA that you were driving o f course, this is not in your control, but I would like to hear your take on that.
Good morning. Thank you very much for your questions, Luiz. I'll answer the first one and then Augusto is going to answer the second about the impact of regulatory changes. We are very optimistic, and I'm going to repeat what I said before: there's no silver bullet. We can imagine that we are going to solve everything in 2025, but monophasic ethanol in fact has provided share gains that we didn't have in ethanol for a long time. There is a revolution of fiber in the market in São Paulo. Now there's more ethanol in the market. We were losing a relative position, and this provides very positive consequences. Now our dealers are engaging back with us in São Paulo, something that we hadn't seen for a long time.
At the same level as other players, now back again, we've recovered our power, and we are very happy and excited about that. We are seeing a good movement in São Paulo because of the single phase mixture of ethanol. We can sell non-branded products with very interesting margins. We grew it in the non-branded segment. CBIO, it went up and down, but then you were talking about the past. What we see now in the day-to-day in the market, we are hearing and listening from customers in the market, is that that is effectively having an impact on many companies in the right way. Companies have started considering CBIO into their costs, and this has driven us and is affecting the dynamics. It's changing it in some markets where some of the companies didn't have that included in their costs. We see an evolution in margins.
There is a minor evolution in market share. Once again, it's not about looking at that and thinking that it's a huge impact for everyone. We are going to continue our work and expect that the list of those who are owing to CBIO, that is now effectively in effect in January 2026, we're going to have a new list of those who are delinquent and those who will have paid. There are several actions according to your question. We are very active in ICL through CL. All companies of ICL have been participating, even ICOs then in the past and now with actions.
We have recently donated some pieces of equipment to ANP, and there will be a program that is going to be launched over the next few days so that these verifications of A and B are in the agenda so they can test it right on time. In the past it would take a few days; with this piece of equipment you can do it right on time and then shut down the gas station. What we have here in Vibra is not the effect of five gas stations closed. It's the risk of your gas station being shut down. We are going to give more and more visibility to that. I would like to emphasize something else that happened in São Paulo and has started in other states, which is positive, which is the thing of solidary tax debtors in the state of São Paulo just last week.
These companies had been accused before. Gas stations that had purchased fuel from companies that owed the state in terms of taxes are now getting the payment slips. This all creates a positive dynamic for the market, but for the country too. We want a positive dynamic for the country to do the right thing, to abide by the law. I think that this is another very strong effect, and we are watching this very strong effect in the market in the state of São Paulo. I remain optimistic on this journey. It's not just one quarter or one month, but I'm very optimistic about this journey. More actions for biodiesel, more actions of the solidary debt in the case of taxes. We are working on monophasic ethanol, and in the next two months we hope that we will be able to finish the study and analysis together with Unica.
We are really very confident with the agenda. About taxes and tax credits, just as a reminder, this is an internal efficiency for it to continue generating cash. We want to increase cash generation, so being really straightforward, we're going to have these tax credits for quite some time. We're likely to use it over the next few years.
I think about Comerc, and maybe Ernesto would like to complement. I would divide Comerc in two parts. There's the second half and the second half of the year. In the first half our results were good, in line with the budget. We are managing it in terms of the follow-up. There was an aggravation of curtailment, about 11% in the second quarter last year, and now it was approximately 20% in the second quarter.
However, now relating to the guidance that we published, it's difficult for us to review the guidance as a reminder that we're successful in the first half. In the second half, usually you have more resources, better results. A second quarter is always better than the first half of the year. There are many things going on in terms of regulation. There are many parts moving. Curtailment has in fact gotten worse. This is something unknown and we don't know its impact in the second half. We think it's too early to make any new projections. We believe they continue working to deliver BRL 1.3 billion in terms of guidance for 2025. Definitely. What can happen as soon as we have a better configuration of results and projections for 2025, we are going to go out to the market and we might review and adjust it. We are working to deliver our goals.
It's very clear. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra from Citi.
Thank you, Ernesto. Three points and one follow-up. I think I've asked it before, but this week there were some discussions of the company going back to the market of gas. I know that there is a non-compete and then you discuss the brand and I would like to hear from you, especially in terms of the brand. How are you addressing this theme today? I think there's a recurring theme and in some conference calls considering this. How are you behaving recently for the company? Number two, we saw this dynamics. We think that in a release of inventory we see a working capital this quarter with some one-off adjustments.
The thing here is, and the question is related to the working capital coming back in the third quarter. I would like to understand the dynamics and what happened and we should think in a lower inventory and a much smaller inventory in the third quarter. Very briefly, in terms about the monophasic ethanol, how should we think the ratio between market share and margin? Having monophasic ethanol provides a few cents of difference, but this, we are halfway through the quarter, but a quarter that has very much this impact. What should we think in terms of strategy? What is the best way to take in disadvantage for the company and what is it going to be like from now on?
Good morning, Gabriel. Thank you very much for the question. Let's start with Petro bras, our guest. Our contract goes up to 2029. We have another six years of rebranding and everything that Petrobras has said recently regarding this contract and the company. We are very proud to have the brand Petrobras, the most recalled brand for Brazilians. It's a brand that we are very proud of and we're going to continue and in time, and this is not the right time. When the time comes, we are going to analyze, maybe we will renew the contract or we are going to try and find a new solution. This is a very significant theme, but it's not urgent for us. It might be one of the most important themes that we have for the company in the long term, but it's not urgent. That is not going to take up our time and energy today. We are going to work on that. Your second question, I'm going to give it over to Augusto.
In terms of working capital, I would just like to reinforce something I said before, that our structural margins, we see a structural margin of 150, 160 per cubic meter. This doesn't mean that in the third quarter we're going to have those margins. We will have a stronger third quarter than usual. To make this very clear, just as we are going to have a third quarter that is going to be very strong, unusual in terms of cash generation, because we have 400 billion in terms of the risk of our customers. This has been going down and we will keep in the third quarter. We certainly want this as we are monitoring, this is going to be above the structural levels. This is what we see. Margins have been growing up structurally a long time to fight illegality and to find new B2B solutions.
I think this is a challenge that we have structurally, in terms of margin and the third quarter, we are going to have a result that will be above our expectations and above margin. Same thing with cash. That is very relevant considering the effects that took place at the end of the second quarter and that will have a positive impact in the third quarter. Just from the structural standpoint, just talking about how we monitor this in terms of S&OPs and supply and demand and inventory is super relevant. Now our inventory position overall in general, just to have a reference, remember last year it was BRL 1 billion. By operating better, our inventory, this is how much we gained. Now that we have more inventory along the first quarter, the dynamics in the second quarter, we couldn't reduce it.
It was slightly above what we had initially planned. Now in Q3, in these 45 days, we are going back to the levels that we had at the end of last year. As a reminder, we are seeking more efficient inventory levels. When Ernesto was here, we had lots of problems of shortage in certain regions in Brazil. For almost a year and a half, we are operating at much more efficient levels with much less shortage. That is why we are seeking opportunities to operate better. This is the company's goal. We want to have levels that are even better. This is in terms of inventory; we are seeking ways to work. This is a high amount just because of the rebound. We are working more with efficiency and seeking gains for our working capital.
As to informality, Gabriel, the way to look at that is, as I have been saying for a while, either to fight informality and engagement of our network branding and B2B solutions, we will grow consistently in a structural way in share with at least this level of margin of 150, 160 per cubic meter. When we look in one or two years, Vibra will clearly have grown and will go back to past levels and maybe even exceed those levels from the past. We want again to be bigger players than we are now. I think that this is the best way to see this. You are not going to see big leaps of 1, 2 percentage points in share.
We are going to gradually, in fighting illegality with our day-to-day actions in the management of the company, see the growth in market share and little by little, gradually a slight growth in our margins too, in a structural way, which is slightly different from the third quarter where we have opportunities that are more advanced considering the market status today.
Our next question comes from Mr. Vicente Falanga from Bradesco BBI.
Good morning, Ernesto and Augusto. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. First, is there a risk of Brazil getting more tariffs on imports? If this goes up and if the flow of diesel stops, how do you see Vibra positioned? My second question is for us to try and map overall risks for next year. At the end of the year there will be the transmission line connecting Roraima with thermal power plants. Could we be affected in B2B segment? Are you very much exposed to the sale of thermal power over there?
Thank you very much for your questions. I'm going to answer the first one. No, the impact is not relevant at all for a Roraima connection into the system, so neither for Comerc or B2B. This has no impact whatsoever. As to import tariffs, of course we don't know what is going to happen, but if it happens, number one, in terms of acquisitions, Vibra, there are some acquisitions in the Gulf market and we've been working in the Gulf of Mexico and we've been working there for a few years. There are no problems with supply. There are other sources in the Middle East too, so no problems in that arena.
Structurally, this is always good for Vibra because we are likely to focus very much on our relationship with Petrobras. Petrobras is our preferential supplier. They are our preferred suppliers, so most of the things that we have come through Petrobras. To us, structurally this might be positive considering our focus and partnership with Petrobras.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Regis Cardoso from XP.
Good morning. Ernesto and Augusto, thank you for the space for questions. Just still on margins, earlier on you said that you saw a recurring EBITDA margin at 1.61% with a one-off effect of the sale of assets and also the inventory effect. I imagine that it would be reasonable that Q3, considering the more closed market, it could be above that. I don't know whether there will be some cash release.
Usually when we are drafting our estimates, we think that it would be something like BRL 500 million, I mean BRL 1 billion. I'm trying to quantify it. I don't know how much you can disclose about that. The second question, if you allow me. The branding, it was interesting to see that the number of stations is going up, but I was really curious that the branding, the upfront branding is still below amortization. Could you comment how this process is going? Whether the contracts are shorter or maybe you don't have the upfront modality, you've changed the format. On the other hand, the mobilized CapEx of PP&E is above depreciation. Is there any specific detail? I think that we still have the last Comerc cycle this year. Thinking in terms of distribution, is there in distribution basis any major project that is under execution?
Regis. Good morning. Thank you for the questions. I'm going to say the first two ones and then I'm going to complement. In margins, you are correct. The third quarter and the second quarter we saw a margin of 161 and we are using the third quarter we are seeing that it's going to be better than this margin. Same thing for cash flow, which in terms of direction has an impact of BRL 100 million in the risk of customers that are back in terms of the assigned risk that they didn't use it. We have BRL 400 million. Clearly, in terms of direction, in terms of cash flow, this is in the right direction. The second question about margin, it's likely to be higher in terms of brand, it's important in terms of mix.
We always try to balance out performance when you're based on delivery of volumes and dates and when we give the advance bonus that we book as CapEx. We've been trying to change the bonus but this is very much based on performance. This affects the understanding in terms of depreciation and then we do the reconciliation if you want to see more details. Yes, the bonuses have been growing as a whole and performance, there's a significant share even because later follow up is much easier based on performance and it's easier to have a relationship with our customers. CapEx for the second half, there is nothing significant. It's a reduction and we are going to advance. In IGD and Vibra there's a whole discussion of leverage capital and our ambition and goal of having less than 2.5x before the end of the year.
CapEx being rediscussed either on a monthly basis and a formal committee that we have in house discussing all our investments, even bonuses and taxes, not just assets and not all investments and we take everything but also with weekly meetings to follow up investments. There are no major material investments in addition to what we are doing already and maybe something in 2026.
Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Matthias from UBS.
Good morning Ernesto and Augusto and I have just a follow up about margins. I'm sorry to insist on this but our previous understanding is that the expected margins, especially now for Vibra would be too broad. Now when we look at what you said, a margin of 150, 160 looks more stability as compared to what we had in the last years and adjustments and even below what we've been seeing in the last few years. I understand the regulation aspects that were slightly more complex earlier this year, but is there any other difference in the market that would lead you to review down your expectations? My second question is. We talk very much about the short term and very short term, but I would like to understand you in terms of capital allocation after deleveraging. It's very clear that they said the objective is to get below 2.5x and the focus on deleveraging is very strong. What can we think in terms of capital allocation for 2026, 2027, 2028 considering the company is a major cash generator, maybe a relatively low growth?
Should we look into diversification as a strategy for Vibra Energia for the evolution or if Vibra Energia is in 2026, 2027 if you're going to focus on cash generation and dividends? I know you might not have the answer so maybe you could tell us how you think about the process of capital allocation is like. These are the two questions I had to ask. Thank you.
Matthias, good morning. Thank you for your questions. In terms of margin, I'm going to repeat we have 160 BRL structural. This is what we see today so that we can increase our share. Our focus is to grow with this level of margins. It doesn't mean this is going to be the margin in Q3. As I said before, our margin in Q3 considering the market, it's likely to be above the structural margin. It's likely to be.
This is a tendency, a trend. What we can see today is this fighting, illegality and all the actions. We will be able with this level of margin to grow significantly over the next few quarters. We could generate cash and EBITDA through growth, and we can have higher volumes in terms of ethanol and gasoline. This level of 160 BRL is a structural level for us to continue growing and maybe in the future. Our plan is to increase margin too, but this is going to depend on our advance. That is going to take, but it's usually gradual. In the third quarter, margins are usually higher than the structural level. This is what we have in terms of capital allocation. Our goal is to be less than two and a half times this year. We have concrete plans to reach that goal and we will get there.
Next year we're going to start the year seeking to reduce leverage. Our ideal leverage is to be below two times. We want to be below two times. We are probably going to start the year seeking this reduction of our leverage. When we look at the future of the company, we will always be looking at possibilities when return to shareholders in terms of growth of our core business. Aligned with what we said to you as part of our strategy in the past, in our investor day that we had about one year ago, when we talked precisely about our potential growth in many of those avenues, even with a possible acceleration in the branding of gas stations, if that makes sense, we are going to seek that growth because this would accelerate our internal growth of our core business.
Today we have the focus of reducing leverage and as soon as it is repositioned below two times, we are going to look at other growth potentials and if we can't find growth potentials, we are going to pay out dividends. We are okay with that. That's not the problem. This needs to be very clear. Our objective is not to have projects, our objective is to have the good allocation of our capital to provide return for our shareholders. If the best return is the paying out dividends, we are going to do that.
In terms of structure and decision, we have a strategy, we have our growth avenues. We have a focus on the short term on deleveraging the company. As Ernesto said, we have a very active financial committee. We discuss all strategic movements of the company.
Once deleveraged, the avenues of growth continue, there are possibilities and they are likely to generate more cash for the company. As a reminder, when we presented our strategic plan, there was a very simple mandala where dividends were still a piece there. We are not being one or the other. We want to have the capacity to grow. The company already is very high in terms of revenue, but in payout of dividends, we have slightly more compressed margins. There is a leverage there. The options along 2026 and 2027, we fix the leverage with appropriate return, keeping our ambitions of paying out dividends. We want to remain as significant payers of dividends in Brazil and we want to find alternatives for growth. We are not going to just accumulate cash.
Thank you very much.
Our questions and answers has now ended. I would like to give the floor to the CEO, Mr. Ernesto Pousada, for his closing remarks.
I am going to end as I open. The company is very much focused on growth with margin. The structural margin with 160, it will be higher in the third quarter. We think that this is the structural margin reduction of the net debt. Our leverage is absolute priority for us until we can be repositioned below two times. We are likely to get there early next year. The second half of the year is usually a half year of higher demand. We're going to have more cash, we're going to reduce leverage, higher margins, and we will continue to increase our market share. We remain very optimistic with the second half of the year and what is about to come. Thank you all very much. Have a good day.
Vibra video conference has ended. Thank you very much for your participation and have a good day.