Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S (CPH:AOJ.B)
Denmark flag Denmark · Delayed Price · Currency is DKK
90.00
-0.70 (-0.77%)
At close: May 8, 2026
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 22, 2023

Niels Johansen
CEO, Brødrene A & O Johansen

Good afternoon, welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 webcast. This webcast will focus on our fourth quarter and full year 2022 performance. We will share with you the highlights and our management's observations. Let us begin with the conclusions of 2022. 2022 ended in line with our latest guidance. Revenues came in at DKK 5,375 million, both EBITDA and EBT ended in the high end of our guidance. We are satisfied with the financial performance, we are satisfied that many areas AO has taken significant strategic steps in 2022. For instance, expanding our warehouse capacity and including EA into the family. We feel ready for the future. The Board of Directors proposes dividends of DKK 5.25 per share, equivalent of 50% of earnings after tax.

Let us now look at some of the highlights of the fourth quarter. Q4 showed a strong 17% growth and came in as the strongest quarter ever for AO. Both sales and earnings were record-breaking. B2B had another strong quarter and came in with 18% growth for 2022. EA accounted for 5% of the growth. The organic growth of 13% came from all B2B product lines. Despite the turbulent supply issue, AO has managed to maintain a high and steady delivery capability to customers throughout the year. Our warehouse expansion has been finalized, securing us a double capacity. EA is fully integrated. We have now started to introduce the EA assortment. Let us also look at some of our management's observations.

Fulfilling our customers' needs and their orders during times with uncertainties in supplies has caused us to keep higher level of inventories. As the situation normalizes, we will destock accordingly. We have taken the opportunities given by increased inventory capacity, starting to stock new assortment. The level of SKUs is available for our customers has increased from approximately 400 to almost 600,000. Global e-commerce has decreased more than we expected in 2022. The full year showed an index of 81. We have maintained our market share, and our ambition for B2C remain high. Costs of doing business are under pressure from cost inflation. Running a company is getting more complex. Many examples could be listed, but one area is the ESG reporting. Highly relevant indeed, but the regulations and work to be carried out to implement and administer the reporting directives are significant.

Cost inflation and increases in interest rates have historically proven to be indicators of lower consumer demands. Although seeing a high level of activity as we speak, it is likely that this will have an impact. On the other hand, green transition and new activities such as EA in AO will offer growth opportunities. We see an increased number of bankruptcies within the construction industry. AO has taken out credit insurance on large customers, and we have provisions in place for the risk we see. Let me stress as my closing remark that although times are indeed unpredictable, we feel prepared for the future. Now, Per, please take us through the financial performance.

Per Toelstang
CFO, Brødrene A & O Johansen

Thank you, Niels. As expected, we showed a good momentum in Q4. B2B grew 22% including EA and 17% excluding EA. The volume growth in B2B was approximately 10% and the rest being price increases. B2C came in at index 85. Private consumers reacted prompt to cost inflation and reduced demand during Q4. Consequently, Black Week traded lower than expected. Gross margins increased from 24% to 25.7% in Q4. The increase was primarily due to lower distribution ratio and one-offs from price increases. External costs are impacted DKK 10 million due to additional reservations regarding risk for losses from account receivables. Salaries are impacted DKK 6 million with regards to restructuring costs related to EA integration. EBITDA increased DKK 31 million compared to Q4 last year.

Financial costs took a hit end of Q4 due to the depreciation of the Swedish crown and the increased level of interest rates. Please bear in mind that the last year financials were positively impacted by DKK 5 million gains from sales of the activities in Estonia. EBT ended at DKK 109 million against DKK 88 million last year. The margin came in at 7.6% against 6.5% last year. Now let's turn to the full year 2022. As Niels said, the year ended in line with latest guidance. The past 3 years have shown high momentum and revenue increases. We saw a 12% growth in 2022. B2B grew 18%, and B2C saw a 19% decline from the extraordinary 2021.

Cost of doing business amounted to 15.2% against 14.6% last year. It is a focus area in AO to improve efficiency in general, including the cost efficiency. EBITDA increased from DKK 417 million last year to DKK 491.6 million in 2022, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 9.1%. EBT ended at DKK 377.4 million against DKK 326.1 million last year, and the EBT margin came in at 7% against 6.8% last year. Let's turn to the margin development comparing 2022 to last year. The year saw a margin increase from 23.3%-2 4.4%. Why is that?

Well, the higher margin business in EA show up at the radar and is lifting the group margins by 0.3 percentage point in 2022. On the other hand, the higher margin B2C business was relatively smaller compared to 2021, which reduces margins by 0.4 percentage point. Significant price increases during 2022 resulted in a positive one-off impact this year of 0.8 percentage point. Last but not least, the distribution cost was positively impacted by, 1, lower B2C shares, and also the fact that part of the growth was price related, which meant that distribution ratio improved margins by 0.4 percentage point. Let's leave the margins and turn to the segment info. The B2B segment accounts for 88% of group revenues, and the B2C segment accounted for 12%. The segment split was 84/16 last year.

B2B sales increased 18%, B2B EBITDA increased 24% in 2022. The B2B segment EBITDA margin amounted to 13.6%, up from 13 last year. The B2C sales was 19% shy of last year. Index in half year was significantly better than first half 2021, and B2C improved gross margins to 28.3% this year. Indirect non-allocated cost has increased 19.6%. Let's turn to the cash flow and the net interest bank debt. As expected, net interest bank debt increased during 2022 due to increased working capital and due to the high investment level. Working capital did indeed increase significantly during 2022. Because in order to ensure high level of product delivery to customers, we have continued larger procurement of products with unstable supply. We will destock when and as the supply situation normalizes.

Accounts receivables increased as B2B increases and also reflecting that the cash paying B2C customers amounted to a relatively smaller proportion in 2022. Net interest bank debt of DKK 543 million amounted to a financial gearing of 1.1x EBITDA against 0.5 last year. Let's turn to the investments. Please be aware that the chart does not include M&A investments. The green band shows the normal level of maintenance investments in AO. AO has invested heavily in expanding warehouses in Albertslund and Horsens during the past 18 months in order to prepare for the future. In 2023, we foresee significantly lower investments than in 2021 and 2022. However, having said that, we do expect higher than normal investments in expanding relevant AO shops to include EA assortment in order to make EA nationwide.

Let's leave the finances and turn to the outlook 2023. Forecasting 2023 imposes a higher degree of uncertainty than normal. Before turning to our assumptions for the outlook, let's look at some of the reasons to believe for healthy market activities during 2023, as well as reasons for AO to expect a continued good momentum. Despite reduced overall demand, we do see significant growth drivers in the green transition, as well as AO growing the EA business during the coming years. History tells us that in times where rough economy led to reduced new build, then one tends to increase maintenance on existing properties. As you are aware, AO has approximately 70% maintenance sales and 30% project sales. We also aim to have a scalable business model in AO in order for us to react fast when demand changes.

For instance, in using temps in warehouses. Last but not least, we have a robust capital structure. We own a large part of our property base, and we have relatively low financial gearing, allowing for us to resist headwind and to capture opportunities that may arise in good or tough times. Now, let's turn to the 2023 outlook assumptions. We guide a revenue range of DKK 5.25 billion-DKK 5.45 billion. In other words, a revenue at same level as 2022. We guide an EBITDA range of DKK 435 million-DKK 465 million against DKK 491 million in 2022, and we guide an EBT range of DKK 300 million-DKK 330 million against DKK 377 million in 2022.

We assume that Q1 will bring healthy positive growth, Q2 a lower growth, and for second half 2023, we assume that market conditions will reduce demand by approximately 10%, which we defined as a moderate recession. Why does an unchanged revenue level result in a reduced EBT from DKK 377 million- DKK 350 million being mid-guidance? I'll try to answer that. At the chart in the right corner, we have shown our assumed EBT changes in 2023. We don't assume to see the positive one-off price impact in 2023, given that prices are assumed to only increase marginally during the year. This result in an assumed DKK 42 million negative impact compared to 2022.

Secondly, we expect gross margin to be under pressure from the fact that a 10% demand reduction will see an increased wholesaler over capacity. We will indeed execute synergies, and we expect to execute approximately DKK 30 million synergies in 2023 from cost efficiencies from the new shuttle, the warehouse, and from having integrated EA late 2022. On the other hand, depreciations will increase approximately DKK 20 million due to the significant investments the past years. Finally, we foresee a DKK 10 million increase in cost related to full year impact of the cost inflation. Consequently, we assume an EBT in the range of DKK 300 million-DKK 330 million. However, let me stress that it is AO's ambition to outgrow the market year by year also in 2023. This concludes the presentation, and we are ready to take your questions.

We already received some questions from you. One being, how big a part of your sales in 2023 do you expect will arise from new build, et cetera? Our assumption is that 70% will be maintenance and 30% will come from what we call projects. We have another question. Inventory is 16% of sales now compared to 12% end of last year or end of 2021. What do you think is a normalized level? Difficult to answer, due to all the abnormal normalcy that's out there. But one could guess that a place between the 16 and 12 would probably be the new normal.

We have another question saying we have a pretty high EBT in Q4 2022. Should one assume the earning reduction will take place from Q1 already or will it be later in 2023? You could say from the chart we went through on one of the last pages regarding the outlook, obviously the price increase impact or the negative impact will take place basically all year. One should probably assume the first quarters of 2023 will show lower reductions than the last part of 2023. At least that is what follows our expectations for revenues.

We have a question, can you share some details around how the new automated warehouse will impact your cost going forward? Well, we did. We did in the presentation. We believe that we will look into combined synergies this year of DKK 30 million. The largest part being from the shuttle from the warehouses and a minor part from integrating EA. We have a question. Do you expect any improvements in B2C for 2023? We expect 2023 to be a difficult year from a B2C point of view. What we have seen so far is that the private consumer has been a little bit reluctant to use the web shops throughout the world.

I would be cautious to expect significant increases in 2023. We have a question, how much of your inventory is exposed to the risk of becoming unsellable due to market development, et cetera? Well, I think we are lucky in that sense that the vast majority of our goods is sellable and will be sellable. Obviously, within green transition and other areas, there will be a innovation rate. We don't expect that to be a big problem for us. When do you expect salary inflation to hit you is another question. Our next salary increase will be in the...

during the spring, 2023. From your historic experience, how fast will renovation segment be able to compensate for lower project activities during 2024 or later? Well, I've been so lucky to be only in AO during good times. I'm not an expert when it comes to our history. I think our best assumption will be that renovation will be able to compensate for lower projects in a fairly short while. What kind of price increases do you integrate in the guidance? 5% approximately. It's a guess, but a 5% price increase and a 5% volume decrease. Should we expect a flat cost base OpEx for 2023?

That will require some synergies I would say, because as we have been sharing with you from quarter to quarter, there is a cost pressure, and it is getting increasingly bureaucratic to run a business like ours. We also foresee in 2023 that we will have to add on cost. Now in 2023, we will see synergies compared to 2022, for instance, in integrating EA and also from the warehouses. You should expect a relatively stable but increasing cost base in 2023. Share buyback, should we expect that? Is another question. Well, we know the tool, and it is a tool in our toolbox, but for the time being, no plans.

Can you give us a bit of colors on the M&A pipeline? Well, if we have M&A activities going on that requires us to discuss it with you, we will do. We'll most certainly do. I think we believe that the accounts for 2023 will offer us better improvements as a buyer than the accounts for 2022. You shouldn't probably expect a whole lot of M&A activities on a very short horizon. If any one pops up, we will share it with you when time be. Opening new EA stores, will that be stores in your current store network? How much sale do you expect from the integration?

We would like our customers, when they join our outlets or our shops, to have a customer feeling that they enter one shop. We will be one shop. Obviously, we are proud of the EA brand, and we will signal that this is available in the shop, but you will enter it as one shop. It's a little bit too early to have a precise assumption whether how much we will sell from EA goods in our shops, but we will keep you posted from quarter to quarter. Energy and freight costs are lower than in second half 2022. Will that help 2023 margins? Well, both yes and no.

I think it's still higher than first half of 2022, so in that respect, I would assume 2023 to be at the same level or a little bit higher than the entire year 2022. Could you give us a hint of how much sales stem from our heat pumps? We don't disclose that number, but it is, it is increasing. It's, it's below 10%, but increasing and showing extremely high growth rates during 2022. How do you evaluate the AO365 initiative in 2022? As you know, we have had very positive feedback from the AO365. The AO365 customers, the customers using the shops for AO365 are among the most satisfied customers in AO.

Now it's time to involve more customers and also to expand education to a broader group of customers during the coming period of time. We know that the concept works. We know it's extremely popular. We will definitely take the next exciting steps in 2023. That actually concludes the good questions. Should you have any more questions, feel free to arrange bilateral meetings or to ship us a mail. Until next time, thank you and goodbye.

Powered by