FLSmidth & Co. A/S (CPH:FLS)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Aug 15, 2024

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

...Welcome to the earnings call from FLSmidth for the second quarter 2024. I'm joined by my colleague Roland Andersen, who's the Group CFO, so it's the usual duo here. I'm very pleased about the result for the second quarter. The result confirms that our transformation is progressing ahead of the schedule.

You also see that the service business, both in mining and cement, is growing faster than the market, and the service-oriented business model works. We both delivered high EBITA profitability both in mining and in cement segments. Mining posted adjusted EBITA margin above 13%. Cement posted adjusted EBITA margin of more than 9%, so both businesses performed well. And I especially proud in both businesses about service growth. In mining, 7% growth in order intake, whereas market was flat.

Products was low due to timing, and I will talk about that in a bit. In cement, what we celebrate is that the, for the remaining portfolio, as you remember, we've been selling some businesses, the spare part business grew year-on-year more than 10%, and a significant achievement in the cement business. Sustainability KPIs are progressing well.

Still concern about safety and improvement of the safety. We've been right-sizing the company for a year now, and we've seen a reduction of more than 2,000 people from the workforce. At the same time, we are looking at cost-efficient operating model and corporate structure that we will implement over the next year, year and a half. When cement is exiting FLSmidth portfolio, we will become corporate rather than a group. Sustainability KPIs. They are impacted also by difficulty looking at the baseline.

There's quite a lot of noise in the baseline in comparisons, because we've been restructuring the business. We've been selling some assets in cement. But all in all, good development, and safety continues to be our focus, especially in North America, FLSmidth operations going forward. Mining order intake: significant growth in services, and the market was flat.

Of course, the comparison point year ago was on the low side, but still very good achievement, and it's proving that our business model, which is becoming much more service-centric, is working well, and then service is turning into high-quality revenues quite soon thereafter. The capital orders have continued to be slow. We saw some really nice product orders. We sold a gold plant with lots of good products and with a significant aftermarket potential as a part of that 600 number.

But there was no significant large orders in the quarter. And when you look at the order intake for products, you can combine quarter one, quarter two, and divide it by 2, so you see the baseline business what we have. The baseline business is high-quality product orders, which turns into great aftermarket, high-quality revenues.

And when we are assessing our market share in capital products, we see no change in the market share in the rolling 12 months amongst the players. But the capital market is slow and continues to be slow in the coming six months, 1 year. When we look at the mining revenues, there's a fairly significant decline in products, and there's some legacy projects from thyssenkrupp times, where we saw that we halted them or stopped some of the projects.

There's no P&L impact, so everything has been provisioned for, but some of those projects might result in lower revenues than earlier anticipated, but no P&L impact. So we are in full control all of the projects and have full visibility for everything. Mining services, you see sequential improvement in revenues: 2.4 first quarter, 2.5, 2.6 this quarter.

Comparison point last year, the difference is that we are exiting basic labor services, which was strategic decision, and therefore, there's less and less basic labor service revenues in our books. There's some timing topics in service deliveries as well. But all in all, service revenue, we are happy with the development, and it's gathering speed.

Last quarter, 2.44, now 2.56, and it's progressing well. Maybe the most important achievement for the quarter is improvement of EBITA. If you look at reported EBITA, almost three percentage points year-on-year improvement is very significant year-on-year, and the market is not booming. Adjusted EBITA reaching 13.1 level.

This is what I'm most proud of, of our achievements in this company. We said that we will focus on quality of earnings, de-risking the portfolio, delivering great return, great profitability for our business, and this is a sign that we can do it.

We are still burdened by too high SG&A, and we are in the process of defining lighter corporate and operational model that will deliver SG&A savings that will again support in turn our EBITA improvement in the coming year and a half. We've been restructuring Cement now for a while as well. We've been selling individual product lines, which were impacting comparison points.

But inside these numbers, the most important is to point out that for the remaining part of the portfolio, spare part business, which is the biggest part of the aftermarket, has grown more than 10% on the portfolio what we have. As I said, we sold some businesses. We sold MAAG business for the good aftermarket. That's no longer in our books in the second quarter 2024. But like for like, excellent development in service.

So it has paid off to de-risk, stop the project, focus on services also in Cement. Revenue is catching up. Service revenue and capital revenue is impacted by the portfolio decisions. We have such a peak in order intake for the spare parts, so that means, in turn, that pickup in revenues is coming a bit later.

So we've been increasing our order backlog for spare parts deliveries, and that will result in good revenues going forward and also high-quality earnings. If you remember the Capital Markets Day, we communicated that we can make Cement 8% EBITA business, regardless of the volumes, and now evidence that we've done it, and that level is sustainable going forward as well.

100% sustainable to have that type of profitability in Cement. And we can do more in the coming years, and new owner can do even more. Still, the SG&A level is too high in Cement, and despite that fact, we delivered 9.6 adjusted and reported 8.5. NCA is no longer an issue for the company.

You look at, we have 28 remaining employees in the business. We started at the level of DKK 3.6 billion backlog, and backlog is coming down fast. We are canceling, still exiting some of the remaining contracts, and we will close this segment end of the year. There will be very little left, everything fully provisioned for, so in the... we absorb it to the mainstream business. And then I hand over to Roland with more details for the financials.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

Thank you for that, Mikko. So the consolidated financials revenue coming in a little less than DKK 5 billion for Q2 2024. Gross margin improving to 31.8% for the group and slightly lower SG&A, leaves us with an adjusted EBITA margin of 10.2% and a reported EBITA margin of 8.7%. And after financials and tax, bottom line for the group, DKK 187 million. Gross margin continued to improve to 31.8%, as we see on the right-hand side, slightly up in mining compared to last quarter, and now Cement on a +30% level, so a total of 31.8% for the group.

SG&A cost slightly down compared to the same quarter last year. Transformation activity sits predominantly in Cement, and there's more to come in Mining. We have invested a considerable part in our front end, including in our PCV business line, and a few inflation adjustments here and there also.

In this number here sits all one-off items of DKK 75 million for this quarter. Our group EBITA continue to improve, as also Mikko alluded to, on an adjusted basis, but also on a reported basis. On the right-hand side, just a brief bridge compared to the same quarter last year, adjusting for integration costs.

Obviously, for the group, the revenue is down, costing us some margin, but it's more than compensated by considerably improvements in gross margin. Few savings here and there, SG&A and others, leaves us with 10.2% adjusted EBITA margin. And adjusting for the DKK 75 million in one-offs, so 1.5%, the group posts 8.7% EBITA for the quarter reported.

Net working capital increased slightly. Predominantly by the end of the quarter, we had a lot of cleanup in our work in progress and receivables or invoicing to a number of customers that sits in receivables, so slightly up for the quarter to 9.4%. And that means that our CFFO was only slightly positive for the quarter. EBITA of DKK 524 million.

Provisions had cash in use of DKK 190 million this quarter, and a smaller change in working capital, so DKK 14 million left for CFFO. And deducting our CFFI, excluding acquisitions, that was DKK 0 for the quarter, a free cash flow of DKK 89 million. That leaves us with a leverage of 0.7x for the quarter, so still well below our capital structure targets.

We adjusted our guidance in all three segments some days ago. So in mining, we used to have a revenue target for the year of DKK 16-17 billion. We adjusted that down to DKK 15.5 billion. The EBITA margin, however, was adjusted upwards from 11.5%-12.5%, initially adjusted up to 12.5%-13%, adjusted for mining.

Cement, we left the revenue unchanged, but the adjusted EBITDA margin is now expected to be 8%-9%. On our non-core, we moved the revenues a bit as backlog is being canceled and re-scoped. So we now expect full-year revenue to be DKK 200 million-DKK 300 million, and the loss unchanged at DKK 200 million-DKK 300 million.

It also means that for non-core, we still expect that in the lifetime of that non-core activity segment, to lose DKK 1 billion, as we have guided before. And that means that the group will have revenue of DKK 20 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10%-11%, and a reported EBITDA margin now 8.5%-9.5% for the full year.

If we look at our transformation follow-up dashboard here in mining, the most significant item that's still to be done is our simplification and operating model. So we've done a lot on the organization and footprint set up, more than 600 people reduction since same quarter last year. We are on track to implement a more cost-efficient operating model, a new corporate structure, but it will take us another 12-18 months until we are more significantly through that.

On our commercial investments to enhance our frontline and also our service offerings, we are almost done. PCV technical sales force has been significantly ramped up, and also our service centers and mill liner capacity has gone up and progressing in line with plan. Also, our de-risking efforts are starting to sit properly in the backlog.

80%, of the order backlog now relates to lower-risk orders, and that is ±, roughly where we want it to be. In cement, we're a bit further on the simplification and also in the de-risking. Basically, all risk is now out of the backlog in cement, and there's a bit more simplification and also tuning on the operating model over the next 6-9 months.

But otherwise, we're basically done with that, with that business. NCA, we talked about on group strategic level. The legal entity separation with mining and cement is done. There are still bits and pieces on the TSA, but we will be done with that over the next couple of months or 3.

And, the divestment process for our cement business is progressing according to plan, and that means that we may have signing later this year, and it will very earliest be by the end of 2024. And with that, we will give it over to Q&A.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using speakerphones, please pick up your handsets before pressing the keys. To withdraw your questions, please press star and then two. One moment for the first question, please. And the first question comes from Christian Hinderaker from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, sir.

Christian Hinderaker
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Yes, good morning, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity to ask a question. My first one is on the comment in the mining release. You mentioned that there's been an increase in customer appetite for upgrades and rebuilds of equipment for equipment life extensions and to improve operational efficiency.

Can you just remind us whether the modernization and refurbishment mix sits within your aftermarket OE side of the business, and then what proportion it represents? And maybe just add a bit of context around that dynamic in terms of the demand backdrop. Thank you.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

... So, upgrades and refurbishments are part of the service business. And, if you look at the service PNL, we have, overall simply, we have three main categories: spare parts, wear parts, and professional services. And typically, upgrade and retrofit includes some spare parts, some wear parts, some professional services. So, upgrade and retrofit is really a bundle or package that we target to upgrade HPGR, upgrade the and refurbish of our existing installed base. So it sits for the service, is part of the 7% service growth.

So we saw, because there's less capital investments going to the mines, or it's slow there, but we saw a high level of activity in service, maybe not increasing, so the service market is kind of flattish, but we were able to convince customers to do some improvements to their operations.

Christian Hinderaker
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you, Mikko. My second one then is on the gross margin in minerals, 33.4%, obviously at the top end of, I think, the guide you'd given before of 30%-33%. How do we think about that development just in the context of what was obviously a favorable mix in the quarter, and then just thinking forward to 2026, and that thirteen to fifteen percent target for adjusted EBITA, what are you factoring in in terms of gross margin? Is most of the improvement forward more of an SG&A dynamic? Thank you.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

Thank you for that, Christian. And no, exactly as, as you said, last time, I think we said 31%-33% in that gross margin, and this is in the, the upper end and, and favorably, pushed by, by, by the mix. So this is a clean gross margin once again. So this is a, if you will, a run rate number, 31%-33% is, is where we, where we, expect to be.

There will be variations, obviously, depending on where we are on the, on the product and equipment sales, but that's the expectation. And also in terms of EBITA, EBITA improvements, we need a bit more growth in the service business, and we need a significantly lower SG&A cost. So I think that's, that's sort of what you're looking for.

Christian Hinderaker
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. I'll get back, and thank you.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

We are still saying that SG&A is maybe the biggest lever for us to deliver basically what we promised to the market.

Operator

The next question comes from Claus Almer from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

Thank you. Also, some question regarding the gross margin, but for both divisions. So maybe more on the mining. After Q1, you mentioned this nearly 33% was a clean gross margin. Now it's a bit higher, in Q2, it's still a clean gross margin. But you're also still having projects in your backlog that is probably priced at a higher level, giving the price hikes you did last year. So maybe you can try to explain a bit on how is the backlog gross margin compared to what we have seen in the first half of this year? That would be the first one.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

Thank you for that, Claus. So I think what we're saying is that 31%-33% is a gross margin level you can expect moving forward in a clean quarter. This quarter is clean, and also Q1 was clean. We will continue to have product sales, obviously, and we will have less of the risky projects as we move forward, but inherently, the margin on product sales are lower than in our service business.

So, you know, the swing between 31%-33% is, this quarter has to do with the mix between service and products more than anything else. So we are at a relatively clean level you can count on.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

So you don't think we should say 34% in Q3? So it just, you know, keep, keep crawling up despite being an underlying clean gross margin.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

Exactly, Claus. Thank you for that one. No, no, that... You know, we say 31-33. That's, that's what we're saying.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

Right. Okay, fair enough. Then, the same question going to the cement division. It was quite amazing, gross margin and obviously also, EBITA margin. There's no unusual gains in Q2, right?

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

It's also, Claus, it was also a clean number, and I think I promised to you that I will make you proud with the order backlog, and I think, hope you are proud of us now, so with that result.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

Absolutely. So but just for the slide where you said that the, this level will be the future level, and I think you put in 8.5%, but that is the reported EBITA margin. So you did 9.6. Shouldn't that be your going forward level?

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

So it also includes impact from the sale of MAAG right? So on a reported basis, we are around eight, so we're not changing our long-term targets.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

Good. The DKK 9.6 million, that was Q2. So, there's no underlying, right? There's no gain or income in that number?

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

No, but there will be for the full year, so we're guiding 8-9, right? That's an adjusted number. So our long-term targets is continued to be around 8 on a reported basis.

Claus Almer
Senior Analyst, Nordea

Okay. I hear what you're saying, but, that was all for my side. Thank you so much.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Ben Heelan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ben Heelan
Managing Director, Bank of America

... Yeah, morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. I was hoping to touch on the order pipeline in minerals and how you're seeing things there. How has that developed over the past couple of months, and how should we think about Q3 and Q4? And then, a second question was around the outlook for services growth in the second half of the year.

It came in slightly weak in Q2. You mentioned some execution issues. So should we assume that those execution issues continue into Q3 and Q4, or should we assume that services revenues and minerals will return to growth? Thank you.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

Maybe about the capital business pipeline is stable at a low level, so we don't see many large greenfield opportunities in the pipeline. And if I... If you look at quarter one was higher, this was lower. So if you take quarter one, quarter two together, divided by two, it's about kind of one billion sort of volume for the capital business.

And that is, we don't see a quick change in that one. But we've seen good order intake for products for the high aftermarket potential. We will see some swings between the quarters, depending on timing on individual orders. But we don't see uptick in the market yet.

Maybe it's a year out, maybe it's a year and a half out, we don't know. But it's, we expect the capital business to stay at least low level, for still a period of time. And then, if we look at the kind of rolling 12-month back as well, that we don't see really any changes in the market shares, between between different suppliers either. There are quarterly variations and. But we focus on products, and we don't want to have any. And also that the order intake is high quality in terms and conditions and price.

We don't want to expand our scope beyond our technology, which was a strategy decision, so that meaning that we don't want to balloon the order intake by taking steel structures and that sort of things into our books. So, I think first half of the year is good predictor for the near-term capital order intake. For service, we are very pleased with the level what we have today in order intake. And last year, still we were executing labor contracts in the revenue side that we are exiting.

So there's a bit of that in last year's revenue numbers, and we've seen nice development in the service order intake and it's more the timing, so we don't really have any concern for the revenues of service at all.

Ben Heelan
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Nick Housden from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Nick Housden
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yes. Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is again on the margin in the mining business. So it's obviously quite a strong development despite a 19% decline in products revenue. So I'm just wondering, at what point does negative operating leverage from lower volumes offset the benefits that you get from the service mix? Thanks.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

We actually gave a promise to you guys in the Capital Markets Day that the kind of fluctuations in the capital business, which is in mining always has to be very cyclical, will not much impact our profitability projections.

So we are leaning out the organization in the way that capital business is lean, and we are building it on a certain baseline so that capital business, the baseline, direct SG&A, it's this, and company SG&A is this. And then we rather focus on getting... When the market will come back, we want to ride on that wave of recovery in the CapEx business.

So we are targeting. We have a certain SG&A targets for all our businesses, but we don't look at today, we don't look at yesterday. We look at what is true baseline business for CapEx business, have a lean organization supporting that one, which will then there's a leverage when the market will come back. So a long, long explanation, but our future corporate structure is not dependent on volume. So we address the SG&A issue as we speak.

Nick Housden
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. And then my second question, well, I'm just wondering if you could give us an update on the sale of the cement business. I think you've previously suggested that you would rather kind of execute the sale quickly rather than fight for, you know, every single decimal point price.

But given the you know, the margin development in cement has been going very well, and it seems like there are still some good opportunities to streamline the SG&A footprint, is there an argument that you should maybe take a more patient approach and hold out for a higher price, even if that means waiting an extra three or six months?

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

So thank you for that. No, no, no, not, not, not at all. So the way we see it is that, you know, the cement business is now pulling on all cylinders, so to speak. So it's a profitable asset. It's a healthy asset. Risk is out of that asset, and thereby it's also more sellable, we think. And therefore, we stick to the plans, and we will start distributing sales materials over the next month or so, and then the process will.

... will gain steam, and hopefully we will be closer to concluding an agreement by end of the year, at least by the end of the year or Q1 2025. So no change in plans, and we are on track to do that.

Nick Housden
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. If I could just squeeze one more in. If you could just explain the loss from associates and what exactly that was about, and whether you know we should be expecting any more kind of charges like that in the remainder of the year, that would be very helpful. Thanks.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

No, there's no more, there's no more to come. No.

Nick Housden
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question comes from Lars Topholm from Carnegie Investment Bank. Please go ahead, sir.

Lars Topholm
Managing Director, Carnegie Investment Bank

Yes, so first congrats with solid margins. It's very impressive. I have two questions. Overall, one is really stupid maybe, but on your wording around cement, I have in my old notes a disposal or an agreement to sell could be entered into by the end of the year with closing 2025. Now you say a sale of cement at the earliest by the end of the year.

Just wonder if there's any change in the messaging around that? And then a second question, when we have discussed the margin gap between you and Metso, one of the points you've been making in the past is that there's a significant size difference between the two operations, so you simply need a bigger revenue base. I just wonder if anything is going on with regards to screening for build-on acquisitions, for example, in pumps, which is an area you have expressed your interest in. Thanks.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

If you s- uh-

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

Start on first point, then I'll take the second point.

Roland Andersen
CFO, FLSmidth

So, just on cement, we're still on track, and I think all the time we set this, and, you know, we're chasing a signature this year, but we think, you know, earliest this year. So there's no change in our thinking around that, and we have full force and full intention of selling it as soon as possible.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

As bankers often go on Christmas holiday, we've seen that before, and then we are trying to close it in early December, then everybody's gone, and they're coming back in January. So that's a kind of sensitive timing that, if you have a counterparty, but it's progressing well.

About volume, for that reason, we are updating the... Because we are no longer FLSmidth Group going forward. We are corporate because we have only one business, and therefore, we are defining the model that we have a lean corporate center, head office, and then three businesses, and then pushing most of the support function activities to the shared service concept.

So we are creating a corporate model that head office is very lean, people in the businesses, and then support functions in shared service setup. So we believe that we can lower significantly SG&A and make it scalable, that that small head office is the same size, same cost, regardless of the volume.

And we are making sure that then the back office is not too heavy, and our people are in the front line. So we are looking at that. We do recognize that we are from turnover point of view not very big after we sell cement, and we are adjusting the operation model for the new reality, but at the same time, we make it scalable when we grow.

We actively looking at acquisitions, and, of course, when our financial performance is improving, we have much more firepower to actually we get proceeds from cement sale, profitability is improving, so actually we have more firepower to go after bigger acquisitions. So we are definitely looking actively that area.

Lars Topholm
Managing Director, Carnegie Investment Bank

Thanks, Mikko. That's very clear. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a final reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. Seems there are no further questions at this time, and I would like to turn the conference back over to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Mikko Keto
CEO, FLSmidth

I would like to thank our organization and investors alike on your support on this journey, and as we've seen some slowness in the capital business in mining, I remember the question that, "Will you be true to your strategy, not sacrificing quality of the order intake and earnings, and start to take bad business in?"

So we are true to our kind of strategy, high quality order intake, keeping our markets and products, and become more service-centric company. And we know that end of this journey, there will be big reward. We will be high in our financial performance. We have also firepower to make strategic moves in our segment. So thanks for your support, and let's continue to... I continue to keep you up to date about our progress.

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