Matas A/S (CPH:MATAS)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Aug 18, 2021

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Matas Q1 Capital Markets Day call. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. Today, I'm pleased to present CEO, Gregers Wedell-Wedellsborg and CFO, Anders Skole-Sørensen. Please begin your meeting.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Thank you so much, operator, and welcome everyone to the call covering our Q1, going straight into our Capital Markets Day at 10:30. For the quarter, it is a beaming quarter. We have grown across the board. We are upgrading our guidance, and today we will be launching a new five-year growth-oriented strategy. A big day for Matas today. We will start out with my comments, then I will hand over to Anders to go through the financial results. I will comment briefly on the guidance for the financial year, and then we will move to questions, and questions only about the quarter, because we will have ample time to discuss the new strategy afterwards. This has really been a beaming quarter, and it is, of course, a reflection of the euphoria and the happiness out there because Denmark has been reopening.

People have been resuming with their close to ordinary lives, still an exceptional quarter. We saw revenue growth of 7.9%. We saw growth across all categories and across both the stores and our online business. In particular, the recovery of our stores towards the end of the quarter is really heartwarming and warming on the business side as well. Like-for-like growth was 5.9%, and if you compare to our pre-COVID-19 days, it's a whopping 16.6% like-for-like growth on the business. EBITDA before special items increased with just about the same rate as revenue to by 7.5%, and that leads us to upgrade our guidance for the year due to a better than expected Q1. We now enter a period of the year where we saw very high growth rates last year, and we do expect a gradual normalization of consumer spending the rest of the year.

Then, of course, as I mentioned, we will be talking about the new five-year growth strategy extensively later. With that brief introduction, Anders, I'll pass over to you.

Anders Skole Sørensen
CFO, Matas

Thank you, Gregers. Well, as you see here, the key financials were pretty good, as Gregers already mentioned. Like-for-like growth of almost 6% and total revenue growth of almost 9%. Our gross margin, which was rock stable at 44.4% compared to the same quarter last year. Costs were up by DKK 20 million, but as I'll come back to, as a percentage of sales, they were pretty stable. EBITDA grew, as we said, by 7.5%, and net profit actually by more. The only sort of thing that looks a bit strange when you look at the numbers straightforward is the free cash flow, which dropped considerably, and I will come back to why that was the case. Two numbers that we look on as key long-term KPIs for us is basically the number of transactions which reflects sort of the traffics to Matas generally, and of course, the basket size.

We're pleased to see that we had a nice bump in the number of transactions by 5% and also a rise in basket size, although somewhat more modestly at 1.2%. On the next page, we're looking at slightly more long-term trends, and I'm not going to bore you a lot. I think these are very good numbers. They speak for themselves. I think first of all, it's very nice to see now that we have definitely moved away from that trend of growing around zero to now growing substantially. Another thing that I'd like to point out is that I think we've been talking for a number of quarters about the gross margin and the fact that we think it's stabilizing.

I think when you look at these numbers, it really bears out the fact that we are seeing much more of a stabilization in our gross margin. With regards to the EBITDA margin, it's pretty much the same picture. Now, just to dive a slight bit more into the cost. As I said, stable cost ratio, 26.2% the same quarter last year at 26.1%, so that's basically the same number. Yes, costs did go up by 20%. When we then look at that and think what actually happened in the cost picture, well, there were a number of cost drivers. We added a new activity to the business in Web Sundhed, and that did add about DKK 3 million of costs, which obviously weren't there the same quarter of last year.

As online keeps growing, there is a variable cost increase, which is basically linked to the turnover, and that added about DKK 10 million. There was an increase in the personnel cost at the headquarters, but that was two factors, roughly 50/50. One of them was the fact that we actually put a little more aside for the expected year-end bonuses this year than we did the same quarter last year, obviously related to the fact that we're also raising our guidance and things are going quite well. There were some costs that we've been adding in order to be able to execute on some of the longer-term cost reduction products that we are working with, in particular, the Matas Ways of Working WOW project that is really gearing up. Finally, there was an increase in personnel costs at the physical stores.

As you know, this is the largest single cost issue for a cost element for Matas. We really look at this with a tight rein. The fact is that we control it basically by looking at the wage percentages, i.e., how are the wages developing relative to turnover? As turnover was a positive development in the first quarter, the fact that there was a slight increase in personnel costs is not anything that worries us. Actually, the cost ratio went down. Lastly, it's positive, I think, still to see that we are continuously trimming our underlying cost base. It's not like it's a huge number here, but the fact that we're still trimming the underlying cost base this quarter is about DKK 3 million is a positive sign. Inventories. As you all know, inventories has been historically a bit of a challenge for us.

If we look at what happened now, I think it's interesting to see on the right-hand side of this, you can see, well, there were numbers. There were areas where we are growing, and that's particularly online, where we did add new inventory, and that has to do with the sharp growth that we are seeing in the online business. It's basically tied up to our facility in Humlebæk. If you look at the rest of the business, we were actually able to further take out, again, compared to the same quarter last year, about DKK 40 million of inventory. Overall, inventory levels were lower by DKK 24 million. You should notice one thing because this explains some of the cash flow development.

If you look at the relative swing in the inventories between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, you will notice that last year, the swing was a small increase of about DKK 15 million in inventories, while this year there was an increase of around DKK 90 million. That has to be tied back to the fact, if you look at the percentage, the small white numbers, looking at the percentage of the inventory levels compared to the last twelve months sales, we were really down at 20.8% at the end of the last quarter. Now we're at what we still think is a very comfortable 22.5%. This, of course, has to do with the fact that there's always a trade-off between making sure that you don't run into too many stock out situations and trimming your inventories.

It has meant that seen in isolation in this quarter, we've been adding quite a lot to the inventory. Coming back to the cash flow, how do we explain what happened in the cash flow? Well, the important bit here is that if you look at the operations before changes to working capital, there really isn't much to say. I mean, they were DKK 10 million lower than they were last year, and that's a combination of actually higher direct income after tax, but then also slightly higher depreciation. Then on the other hand, we had a cash settlement of one of the long-term incentive programs which detracted from this cash flow. The big change, of course, is changes to the working capital. There we have to see there are really two big major explanations. First of all, as I just mentioned, inventories grew.

They always grow in the first quarter. They grew by a lot more this year than they did last year, about DKK 70 million. Secondly, as we are all aware, some of those special measures that had been taken in connection with COVID-19, which gave us some postponement in the payment of VAT, of payroll taxes, and other things. Well, they added a lot to the cash flow in the first quarter of last year. They didn't add anything this year. There was a negative swing relative to last year. That's really why you are seeing this big, big swing. It explains more than two-thirds of the overall swing. The rest are lesser and not so important points. Just to put it in perspective, if you go back and look at 2019, 2020, changes in working capital for the first quarter was around the same level.

We don't think this is not something that keeps you up at night. This was just a normalization. For the rest of the cash flow picture, nothing really surprising. Slightly higher CapEx as we are investing heavily into our IT. Of course, there was the fact that we acquired the activities in Web Sundhed this year, which means that acquisitions and other investments are up compared to the same quarter of last year. With that, keep it short and sweet because these are good numbers. I'll hand you back to Gregers, and he'll talk a bit about the guidance.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Thank you, Anders. As for the guidance, we raised the guidance on the top line from -2% to +2%. We expect 0% to +3% growth compared to last year. We also raised the bottom line or the lower part of the guidance for the EBITDA from 17.0% to 17.5%. Now what's going on? As I mentioned, we're now entering a period where last year we saw double-digit growth on the year before. Really the COVID-19 boost came in with the full force, and that's what we're up against as we look into the rest of the year. We know that we're not going to sell a lot of protective equipment, and that's the one thing we're happy about not selling anymore, face masks and hand sanitizers to a large degree.

We do expect that over the year, we will see more and more of a normalization of consumer spending as people start traveling more, as we are up against October in particular of last year, where we had a huge stimulus package of holiday pay from the government. We also expect that online competition will increase in the coming time. Now, that is a downward trend. What we expect is that a lot of the initiatives that we have been working on for the last year, they will start to punch in. Of course, the acquisition of Web Sundhed will add to our growth. We will execute the first of our range extensions already very soon actually, but progressively over the remaining quarters, and that will offset some of the reversal effects.

As we mentioned in the full year guidance, we maintain this perspective of having firepower both to meet competition, but also to kickstart our new growth strategy and invest in future growth. That is primarily marketing investments related to the new assortment. I should also mention that our CapEx range is now raised from previously DKK 155 million to now a range of DKK 295 million-DKK 315 million. That is a full reflection of the fact that we are now moving into the realization phase of our big logistics projects, one that I will return to in great detail later. In that guidance, M&A is not included. With that, we will conclude our review of the Q1, and we will open for questions for Q1 only. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press zero, one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do by pressing zero, two to cancel. There will just be a brief pause while any questions are being registered. We have a question from the line of Mads Quistgaard from Carnegie Investment Bank. Please go ahead.

Mads Quistgaard
Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

Thank you, and congrats on the amazing results this quarter. Just one question on the quarter. In the last few quarters, you have provided some indications about the current trading going into the first half of the current quarter. Why are you no longer giving these data? I guess you are at least seeing a slow momentum based on the guidance upgrade you provide today. Can you first explain the current momentum in the quarter? Thank you.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Yeah. This is really a return to our old ways, and maybe that's a reflection of where society is going in many ways, that we think that giving guidance in the middle of a quarter will open up a lot of questions because there are always these seasonal changes, and we might have a big campaign at the end of 1 quarter, 1 year and the start of a quarter another year, or month the other year. Really, we think it distorts more than it adds. Just softly, I can say that it's been a sunny summer. It's been a summer with more travel activity than last year, but still a lot less than a usual summer. That's, I think, the only remarks that we're going to give for the quarter that we're in right now.

Mads Quistgaard
Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

We have another question from the line of Magnus Jensen from SEB. Please go ahead.

Magnus Jensen
Analyst, SEB

Thank you very much for taking my question. I just have two. First, department stores have obviously opened again, but still, you perform pretty well on high-end beauty. Could you talk a little bit about the dynamics here and then what kind of impact it has had on your business that the department stores have reopened?

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Yeah.

Magnus Jensen
Analyst, SEB

Compared to Q1 last year, of course.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

As you compare with Q1 of last year, remember that Q1 of last year was obviously an era where shops really closed down, and you saw the online explosion. You saw a massive change in customer behavior, what people were buying. This year, we have in the first part of the quarter, we still had restrictions on other parts of retail, including department stores. However, the great thing, the great trend driving the quarter is just the euphoria of going back to life, and I think all of retail has benefited from that. Surely, we can tell from the numbers across the board. In particular, I would say that the comeback of the stores is what you should take note of. We saw that increase as our competitors and colleagues opened up, we actually saw our stores performing more and more strongly.

This goes to a point that we talked about many times last year, that it's no good for Matas if the rest of the retail is closed. It's not like it's a wonderful monopoly. It just means that people are not on the streets, and we're losing a lot of these high street traffic impulse buying situations. A good quarter to see the stores come back, even if competition heated up. High-end beauty, as you remarked, I think that's a reflection of the fact that people have a lot of money, they have a lot of time, they have a big desire to go partying again. Of course, travel retail is still muted at this point.

Magnus Jensen
Analyst, SEB

Okay. Well, yeah, thanks. My second question goes to the Matas Plus membership that you have introduced with free shipping and a lot of other interesting stuff. Two questions to this. You have 36,000 members now. How is that according to expectations? Is that a satisfying level? The second question is, how much is free shipping really being used? I can see in the report that it is clearly being used from your comments, but is it something that is visible in the margin? That was my question. Thank you.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

For those of you who don't follow us closely, Club Matas Plus is a new concept where if you pay DKK 29 per month, you get free shipping. You basically gear your points earnings in the loyalty club, three times up, you get a lot of other sort of one-off kind of advantages. We disclosed that we now have 36,000 subscribers. I think that's a pretty compelling number to go from zero to 36,000 paying members. What does it do for our business? It clearly increases our share of wallet. Customers who do become Club Matas Plus, they shop with us more frequently, we get a bigger annual basket, if you will, a bigger revenue chunk from those members. They choose a bit more home delivery, obviously they're getting some good discounts.

Overall, it has stood the first test, namely, do the consumers want this? Yes, they do. We will continue to develop the concept as we go.

Anders Skole Sørensen
CFO, Matas

If you just look at the report in more detail, you realize that we do comment on the fact that the one place that we could see a bit of an effect in the numbers is on the online part of the business, where we've had a drop in the average basket.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Yeah.

Anders Skole Sørensen
CFO, Matas

A high frequency, but lower baskets. At least some of that comes from the fact that Club Matas members, because they have free shipping, are likely to order in smaller batches, and that obviously is a part of what happens. To say that it has had an overall effect on our overall business, it really doesn't have the volume yet to do so.

Magnus Jensen
Analyst, SEB

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Just as a final reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero, one on your telephone keypad now. We have a follow-up question from Mads Quistgaard from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Mads Quistgaard
Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

Yes, thank you. In terms of delays on deliveries, have you seen anything in this quarter due to the solid activities? I guess when you ordered in first quarter for Matas, you shouldn't expect to get your order the next day. Have you seen any delays on deliveries in the current momentum, the current activity?

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

No. We have actually seen the reverse. We've seen more and more speedy delivery and more and more percentages of the individual orders getting fulfilled on the same day. The learning curve that we have in Humlebæk just continues to go in the right direction. Despite a lot higher online activity in Rainbird compared to just two years ago, we have been able to cope with that, and we also see customer satisfaction on matas.dk running at the record highs.

Mads Quistgaard
Analyst, Carnegie Investment Bank

All right. Thanks.

Operator

As there are no further questions, I'll hand it back to the speakers.

Gregers Wedell Wedellsborg
CEO, Matas

Thank you, operator. I just want to remind you that this is not the end of the day. It's rather the beginning of the big reveal. We will talk about our new strategy in just a few minutes, so please stay on the line. We will start at 10:30 sharp, and look forward to seeing you again then. Thank you.

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