North Media A/S (CPH:NORTHM)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 19, 2021

Operator

Welcome to the North Media Q2 2021 interim report. Throughout the call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. I will now hand the call over to your speakers.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of North Media's half-year results and the revised full-year outlook. We appreciate your interest. Going forward, we plan to host calls for international investors twice a year to service the growing shareholder base outside of Denmark. Please turn to slide two for today's agenda and lineup. My name is Kåre Wigh. I'm Group Executive Director and CFO, and I'm joined by my two colleagues and Executive Vice Presidents, Lasse Brodt, CEO of FK Distribution, and Henrik Løvig, CEO of Online. That's BoligPortal and Ofir. We will kick off the presentation with a couple of highlights, and my colleagues will then detail the businesses' performances and outlook. We will end the presentation with six month financials, full-year outlook, and a brief update on our strategy, followed by a Q&A session. With these opening remarks, let's go to slide number three , please.

Consolidated revenue in Q2 was DKK 259 million. Revenue was up 2% from Q2 last year, where we saw some impact from the close down of Danish business life and society amidst the Corona pandemic. Last Mile recorded 1% growth, while growth in the Digital Services was 13%. EBIT came at DKK 68 million versus DKK 56 million last year, and the EBIT margin improved four percentage points to 26.1%, driven by efficiencies, cost savings, and better product price mix. All businesses except for Bekey were profitable. FK Distribution and Ofir delivered solid margin improvements, while BoligPortal sustained high margins despite introduction of freemium products and higher marketing spend. Net profit, excluding return on equities, was DKK 51 million, a decent improvement over last year. Overall results were largely as expected. We made good progress with our strategic priorities, and we're revising the full-year outlook upwards.

We will detail all this during the presentation. First, I'll hand you over to Lasse for a review of FK Distribution's performance on slide number four.

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

Hello and welcome, everybody. I will take you through our Last Mile segment, FK Distribution. For the second quarter of 2021, the revenue was up 1%. Volumes were stable, and prices were slightly higher than last year. EBIT in the second quarter was DKK 62 million, which is an improvement of DKK 8 million, driven by cost saving from the ongoing optimization of our operations. Market conditions were relatively stable. I'll detail volume development in a little while, and a landmark event, obviously, was the expansion of the contract with Deutsche Post, where we more than tripled in volume. We started packaging leaflets for 480,000 households in the northern Germany on the 1st of July this year. This is no game changer in financial terms because the real money lies in the door-to-door distribution, which Deutsche Post continues to handle.

The agreement is a seal of approval of our effective climate-friendly packaging setup, and we hope this agreement could be a stepping stone for additional business outside of Denmark. Initially, we are exploring the potential for packaging for up to 2 million households in Germany. The six -month revenue was down 3% at DKK 431 million. Q2 was solid, while the first quarter was softer because of border shops, shopping centers, and minor customers rescheduled campaigns during COVID-19 lockdowns in January and February. Half-year earnings were DKK 124 million, and we succeeded in lifting the EBIT margin by 2.3 percentage point to a total of 28.7%. Despite the lower top line, satisfying result all in all. Please continue to slide five, please. I'd like to offer some insights into volumes.

Leaflets, local newspapers, and direct mail remain our core business and account for more than 90% of revenue. The remainder is digital offerings and logistical service for third parties. Just for comparison, we expect the revenue from the cooperation with Deutsche Post to account for around 1% of our total revenue in 2021. Historically, printed matter volumes declined by around 88% per year, driven by retail consolidation, increased online shopping, and mergers of local newspapers. Last year, COVID-19 aggravated this development and led to a 10% volume drop. This year, volumes are down 4%, reflecting that we expect a lower structural decline in volume going forward. Notably, the large supermarket chains, electronic chains, builders merchants, and other large retailers continue to rely strongly on leaflets to drive customers into stores. In fact, volume from the bigger customers this year are either unchanged or even higher than last year.

We have only recently extended our existing agreement with one of Denmark's leading retailers, Salling Group, through to 2024. Oppositely, smaller customers reduce volumes. They may be more exposed to structural changes in retail, or they may have been hit harder by COVID-19, forcing them to reduce marketing spend. Moving to the full-year outlook, we narrowed the guidance range in May. Last week, we upgraded guidance. We now see full-year revenue between DKK 865 million-DKK 880 million, with an EBIT result o f DKK 235 million-DKK 245 million. This mirrors high visibility with regard to demand and COVID-19 effects. That's it from me for now. Please turn to slide six with Henrik and BoligPortal.

Henrik Løvig
CEO, Online

Thank you, Lasse, and also a warm welcome from me. Right now, we are in the process of refining BoligPortal's business model. We are introducing subscription-based products and services, but we are also giving away certain products for free to solidify the new platform. As we have outlined in the annual report, these changes were expected to leave a mark on performance in the first half year, a nd they did. Growth was 1% in Q2 and 3% in the first half year. That is somewhat below the growth rates we have grown accustomed to, and which we eventually expect to return to, too. In spite of introducing these changes to the business model, we were able to produce a profit margin of 35.5% in Q2, while the profit margin in the first half year was slightly down to 31.8%.

This corresponds to an EBIT result of DKK 30 million, which we, in all fairness, believe is a good result. Slide seven, please. The new platform in BoligPortal is progressing well. Basically, we are in the process of expanding our addressable market by adding three new revenue streams with significant commercial potential. Together, they hold the potential to secure BoligPortal larger and more stable and predictable income and cash flows. Let me elaborate on these four revenue streams. The first revenue stream, the marketplace, remains the focal point of BoligPortal. We match home seekers with landlords in a controlled and secure environment where all landlords and housing units are fully validated. We are the undisputed market leader in Denmark, and we have an emerging presence in Sweden. We're using data from the marketplace to develop and launch new SaaS products and services.

This brings me to the second revenue stream, which is data. We arrange more than 110,000 rental moves in Denmark. That accounts for 50%-55% of all transactions in Denmark. We are in dialogue with even more tenants via the marketplace. We know the market inside out. We know where demand is, w hat potential tenants are looking for, who they are, and what they're willing to pay, et cetera. We have the same insight into the supply side, the available homes, rents, rental periods, et cetera. We are currently launching a new subscription-based online solution combining all demand and supply factors with information from public registers. This solution based on data allows users to access the rental market virtually and gather information even down to street level. One of the first subscribers is the Danish Central Bank, Nationalbanken.

We hope that this solution will be in demand among developers, real estate companies, managers, banks, contractors, and landlords. The third revenue stream, subscription-based services designed to help small and medium-sized landlords administer properties and their property portfolio. Services here span from advertising, market data, and rental management solutions, whatever the landlord needs to run his property and property portfolio. Finally, the fourth revenue stream, service providers. We offer solutions to tenants who found their new home on our marketplace. We currently offer access to electricity providers with good traction and conversion rates. Last week, we added an insurance partner to the portfolio. Later in Q3, we'll be adding a broadband service partner to the portfolio. All service providers pay BoligPortal a fee for each reference, and we make it easy and safe for tenants and landlords to choose a service provider.

To drive more landlords and tenants into our ecosystem, we are giving away certain products for free. In June, we launched a new digital rental contract free of charge, and other products and services will follow here. The new products are expected to drive double-digit growth from Q4 and onward. We are slightly behind the plan. We have decided to lower the 2021 guidance accordingly. We now expect the full-year revenue to come out between DKK 90 million and DKK 94 million, with an EBIT result of DKK 29 million to DKK 31 million. Despite the slight downwards revision, we continue to target top line and earnings growth compared to last year. Slide eight , please. Let's have a look at our job platform. Ofir had an excellent Q2, where revenue more than doubled. Q2 was in fact the fourth consecutive quarter with high double or even triple-digit growth, as you will appreciate from the figure.

The market is strong. The Danish economy is recovering after COVID-19, We do estimate that Ofir has outgrown the market in recent quarters, as Ofir continues to strengthen its market position and service offering. One of the most recent initiatives is a partnership with Google for Jobs, which fits perfectly with Ofir's focus on posting job vacancies on SoMe, including Google and LinkedIn. Revenue growth in the half year was 84%. Progress was driven by higher volumes of job postings and better prices, whereas income from software licenses continued to drop fully as expected. The half year EBIT result improved to a profit of DKK 3 million corresponding to an EBIT margin of 18%, the best-ever result for Ofir. Next slide, please. A key strategic priority for Ofir is to grow the business with private employers.

Ofir has a traditional stronghold among public employers, but we strive to win market shares by adding new customer groups. As you'll see from the figure, these efforts have started paying off. Revenue from private job openings has grown by 180% since January 2020, while revenue from public jobs is up by 70%. Ofir has invested heavily in its infrastructure and data platform and developed a comprehensive job universe. Vacancies are being posted on several job portals and social media channels, supported by our large candidate database. This approach allows us to target both active and passive job seekers and create high job ad effect for our customers. We originally targeted 36,400 jobs this year, but we may now be looking at around 40,000 job postings in 2021. Based on this forecast and better than expected results, we are updating the full-year outlook.

Revenue is now expected between DKK 31 million and DKK 34 million. That's 50%-60% growth over last year. Likewise, we're raising EBIT guidance to DKK 3 million-DKK 5 million up from the previous DKK 1 million-DKK 2 million range. These numbers underline that restructuring Ofir is history. We have now entered a phase of profitable growth, and we are still far from realizing the full potential. With this, I'll hand it over to Kåre. Next slide, please.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Thank you, Henrik. Let's continue with Bekey, which is our business with digital access to locked doors. Bekey numbers in the first half year were soft. We expect top-line growth to return in the second half year. Six-month revenue was down 18% due to postponement of planned home care projects. Last year, we onboarded three municipalities. They paid an upfront fee for implementation of our systems and installations. This year, we had planned to implement expansion of three existing municipal customers. All these implementation were postponed by the customers. While the contracts are secured, we don't know yet whether implementation is deferred to the second half this year or to 2022. Thus it also impacts our full-year guidance, as I will address on the next slide.

Meanwhile, we continue to invest in developing the new market segment, stairwells, which holds an attractive potential supported by trends such as convenience, online shopping, and sustainability. Stairwells caters to home deliveries of groceries, parcels, and post, as well as property administrators and others with legitimate business in secured multi-story buildings. We install a chip, we call it Smart Relay, in the entry phones of secured stairwells, and this allows our customers to enter the building and deliver goods to the end user's doormat, even though the end user is not at home. EBIT was a loss of DKK 3.5 million, corresponding to an EBIT margin of -30.4%, compared to a loss of DKK 3.3 million and an EBIT margin of -23.6% in the first half of 2020. Slide 11, please. In the second half of 2021, we are continuing to invest in the stairwells segment.

Coverage is undisputed, and we are increasingly gaining commercial traction as witnessed by the cooperation with the online supermarket, nemlig.com. Smart Relay is now installed in 25,500 stairwells in greater Copenhagen. This equals 57% coverage, and we now target 60% coverage by year-end, down from the previously communicated 70%. While we are not satisfied with the speed of new installations and thus need to downgrade our ambition for this year, there's no doubt that the existing coverage is sufficient to support our expansion in the stairwell segment, as also witnessed by our ability to attract important customers such as nemlig.com. We have slightly adjusted our approach and are increasingly prioritizing large property managers to gain efficient access to many stairwells through one contact point.

Due to the continued investments and especially the delayed implementation of home care projects, we are lowering the 2021 guidance to full-year revenue of DKK 26 million-DKK 30 million and narrowing our EBIT guidance to between minus DKK 7 million and minus DKK 6 million, thus in line with last year's results. Next slide, please. Let's turn to the group's interim accounts for the first six months. Revenue was down 2% to DKK 502 million, following the lower structural decline on Last Mile volumes, offset by the businesses in Digital Services, which recorded 10% growth overall. EBIT was DKK 132 million, an improvement of DKK 10 million. The profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 26.3%, and both Last Mile and Digital Services improved margins. The net result was DKK 151 million versus DKK 138 million last year.

Thi s improvement was driven by higher operational earnings, but we also had slightly higher returns on securities. Cash flow from operations were down to DKK 66 million, which is DKK 114 million lower than last year. This is primarily due to COVID-19 related postponed payment of VAT and taxes, plus changes to the holiday allowance scheme. Last year we, on the other hand, benefited from the postponements. This year we settled the last outstanding payments. As at June 2021, our working capital is back to normal. Adjusted for these factors, cash conversion remains high and investments remain low. Finally, the capital resources were DKK 771 million, an increase of DKK 32 million from year-end in spite of dividend payment of DKK 91 million and the before mentioned postponed payments. All in all, solid results leading us to an update of the full-year guidance on slide 13, please.

Last week, we revised the full-year guidance for the group. We now expect revenue between DKK 1,015 million and DKK 1,035 million. We have basically added DKK 20 million to the previously guided revenue range. We now see an EBITDA result of between DKK 250 million and DKK 265 million, versus the previous outlook of DKK 235 million to DKK 255 million. Earnings are expected to exceed last year's result, driven by progress in both business areas, Last Mile and Digital Services. The guidance upgrade reflects higher visibility for FK Distribution's demand post-COVID, Ofir's better than expected results, as well as the minor downward revisions made by BoligPortal and Bekey. This outlook is subject to COVID-19. Currently, the pandemic is well controlled and doesn't materially affect Danish business life. We assume this will also be the case in the second half year. Slide 14.

While it's still early days, we can start adding check marks to some of our priorities on our new strategy. FK Distribution extended its cooperation with Deutsche Post. That's one of the efforts targeted to offset the modest structural volume decline. Other efforts include adding new products to the portfolio, developing new offerings, and strengthening the digital activities. BoligPortal is in the process of expanding its addressable markets by rolling out the new platform. Ofir has solid growth in private jobs and continues to strengthen social media and data research capabilities. Bekey added one important client in the stairwell segment on its way to gain critical mass in this new segment. We expect to see an impact of these growth initiatives in 2022, where they support our ambitions to grow group revenue organically by around 3% and strengthen earnings. Now let's turn to slide 15.

This marks the end of our presentation. We are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please go ahead with the instructions for the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Laurits Kjærgaard from ABG.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

Hi, Kåre, Lasse, and Henrik. Am I getting through okay?

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

It's fine.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

Hello? Yeah, sorry. First of all, great idea for this type of conference call. I think many companies could perhaps aspire from that. Lasse, a question first of all on your part of the business. We can see that last week, Deutsche Post just sent a press release with a map of Germany, where they highlight areas where they're moving from plastic binders to sustainably friendly binders, which I guess is something that you are currently helping them with across Germany. Could you give us an update on if you look at your market in Germany and Deutsche Post, what is the potential for FK Distribution in terms of the further collaboration with the company?

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

First of all, we are very satisfied that our developed banderole has this huge impact on the Deutsche Post. They have chosen this solution for the whole market. That means that we right now deliver to 480,000 households each week, and our aim is to expand that to around 2 million households in northern Germany. In other parts of Germany, Deutsche Post are testing with other companies how to deliver leaflets in paper banderoles in that certain areas. That's why we are saying that this is not a game changer for FK Distribution. We hope that this will be a stepping stone for FK. We have the most advanced and highly automized production facilities and technologies, and we are looking into how we can benefit from that.

In the matter of packaging and this paper banderole, we have some limitations regarding the geography because we are producing out of Tilst in Jutland, and you can say there's a limit for how far we can transport leaflets down to Germany. Right now we are looking into 2 million households as an aim for us, and that is around down to Hamburg. Deutsche Post does a lot of development with other companies around Germany, I don't know anything about how they are succeeding in the testing in other areas.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

It's not like you could be delivering the technology to perhaps other suppliers in other areas of Germany where you don't necessarily pack for Deutsche Post, but you perhaps provided technology for other companies to do it. That's not a likely scenario?

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

First of all, the scenario for us is to be the best in class in Northern Germany.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

If they're testing other solutions, then I guess there's other solutions in the market, and Is there possibility of them using your solution?

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

Not at this moment. At this moment, we are focusing on Northern Germany. If we can collaborate with other companies down in Germany, that would be nice, but for now, we are focusing on a stable production in Northern Germany.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

That's clear.

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

If that scenario changes, of course, we will communicate that as we are used to communicating our findings and market definitions.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

That's very clear, Lasse. Thank you very much. Maybe another question from my side, if I may. Kåre and Henrik, in your strategic targets, you include M&A activity, and you obviously have a great deal of flexibility in your capital reserves to do some M&As. We've heard from quite a lot of conglomerate companies that they have been quite limited to do acquisitions because of COVID-19 restrictions, that they weren't able to meet potential takeover targets. Have you witnessed this effect, and could you also perhaps give us an update on what you perhaps are looking into? Is there a higher likelihood of bolt-on acquisitions to the other businesses, or are you perhaps wanting to add a fourth, let's say, business to North Media? Thank you.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Henrik?

Henrik Løvig
CEO, Online

Yes. Thank you, Laurits, for the question . As we have talked previously, we are working on this as well as on our other strategic priorities. The most likely scenario would be that we would do acquisitions in order to strengthen the businesses that we already focus on. A fourth and new business area is not the most likely scenario. If we have substantial news here, we of course will communicate that. It's not like I see that everything has closed down due to COVID-19. There still has been a lot of activity in this M&A area when it comes to digital businesses.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

What do you say?

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

If I may add, Laurits.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

Yeah

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

the DKK 200 million we have allocated in this three year strategic period, that's a target that might as well be DKK 50 million. We are not in a hurry. It's very important that if we do an acquisition, as Henrik says, it fits our existing businesses, and it should be within an area where we can actually add some of the scalability that we know something about. We are not looking just to buy something at a very high cost. It has to be something we can scale and grow further. If it turns out to be too expensive or we don't really find anything, we are not in a hurry. The priority number one is to succeed with the strategic targets and ambitions that we have laid out for the next three years.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

There's a higher likelihood of perhaps strengthening businesses, as Henrik mentioned, in terms of perhaps bolt-on acquisitions rather than doing something substantially new. Is there also a higher likelihood of perhaps taking some of the services that you provide today into different geographical markets? Would you say it's more adding products to existing geographical markets that you operate in today?

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

It's unlikely it will be a completely new business that we are not into today. We are already looking to grow our businesses into other countries. Lasse just talked about Germany. We know that BoligPortal is already in Sweden. Bekey is already also in Norway. Yes, we are looking to go into other countries as well with our businesses. First and foremost, we need to see that we succeed with the plans that we laid out right now with our current businesses.

Laurits Kjærgaard
Analyst, ABG

That's super. Thank you very much for taking my questions, and have a great evening.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Thank you. Likewise.

Operator

Thank you. The final question comes from Steve Silver from Argus Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

Thank you very much, and congratulations, everyone, on the margin expansion in some challenging market conditions. My question is also related to the 2022-2023 strategic plan. J ust without putting a dollar figure on it, just trying to get your sense as to the funds that are allocated for investment internally. Just trying to get a sense of the prioritization of which units would require the most investment to get them to where you want to be, whether that be of technology upgrades or even international expansion. Just trying to get your thoughts as to which business units would command most of that internal investment.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

We look at growing all of our activities, both within Last Mile and Digital Services. On the short term, it's probably more likely than we will grow and invest in the Digital Services businesses in the short- term.

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

Sorry, is there any-?

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

We haven't divided and set and allocated any specific amount for any specific business. We have allocated DKK 200 million-

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

Okay.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Yeah, go ahead, Steve.

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

I was going to say, just without putting dollar figures, just in terms of which unit requires the most continued investment to get it to where you want to be longer- term. Just not looking for dollar figures or any allocation.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

I think the three businesses in Digital Services, for example, they are at, you can say, different maturity levels. The BoligPortal is the most mature and right now adding new revenue streams to the business. Ofir has just went through a turnaround, and Bekey is early days, where we are still looking to find, to see and see the business model operate profitable in Bekey and the stairwell segment. It's not who needs the most. We see and we want to grow all of our businesses. It's just that they are at different stages right now.

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

Right.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

We don't have any sort of priorities.

Steve Silver
Analyst, Argus Research

Okay. No problem. Thank you very much.

Okay. That's great. Thank you. Congratulations again.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions, so I will pass back for any closing comments.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

We can see here a question that has come in in writing. Lasse, this one comes to you. Question one, the margin improvement in FK is really impressive, and it would be interesting if you could talk more about what kind of cost savings you have done in practice, and how much savings are still left to be done over the next couple of years.

Lasse Brodt
CEO, FK Distribution

Yeah. I can try to say a little about that, and primarily of what we have done. First of all, for a couple of years ago, we started this process where we were going from two distribution periods to one.

In that matter, we have optimized our business so that we have all our leaflets and newspapers distributed on Wednesday and Thursday. We have taken home a lot of savings in that matter, of course. You can say that the EBIT margin improvement, this first half year is the long tail of the optimization process is in distribution where we have more than 10,000 distributors and are distributing more than 1.2 billion leaflets and newspapers. There is always a long tail in improvements, doing things a little bit better. We are a volume-driven company, thereby, even those small improvements, you can see that it will hit through to the EBIT margin if you are in control with your business all over. You can say we're in pretty good control with our pricing and our terms and conditions.

Now we have also been able to optimize our whole value chain after we have done this reduction in distribution periods. In a matter of fact, it's the long tail. It's everyday work for improvements that you can see in the EBIT margin.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Thank you. A second question here for you, Henrik, and it's line with the question before on the acquisition side, so maybe you can add something there. Let me read it out loud here. How's the pipeline for acquisitions in Digital Services? Has there been any discussions, and how do you think about price discipline, i.e., not to pay too much in bidding, et cetera? Also, would you mainly target profitable businesses or also consider turnaround cases?

Henrik Løvig
CEO, Online

I think that we talk to a lot of different people. As you also mentioned before, Kåre, we're not in a hurry. We need to see that things fit well with our strategies. I don't think that this turnaround case would be the first priority for us. That would be services or customer base which will fit with the growth strategies that we have in our Digital Services.

Kåre Wigh
Group Executive Director and CFO, North Media

Thank you. If there are no further questions, I will just thank you very much for your participation today. We hope you found it useful and interesting. If you should have any additional questions, please feel free to send us an email or reach out. Thank you very much for your attention.