Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 2, 2021

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Novozymes Full Year 2020 Conference Call. My name is Tobias Bjerklund, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations here at Novozymes. At this call, Esther Baggier, our CEO and Lars Green, our CFO, We'll review the performance for 2020, including the Q4 and the outlook for 2021. The rest of the executive team is also present. We expect the presentation to take roughly 30 minutes, after which we will open up for questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that the information presented during the call is unaudited and that management may make forward looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in any forward looking statements. With this, I'll now hand you over to our CEO, Esther Bassey. Esther, please. Thank you, Tobias, and thank you all for calling in. I hope that everyone has had a good and productive start of the New Year. Since we last met in October, we have had a lot of exciting and important achievements Through the organization, and I'd like to take this opportunity to mention a few of them. We have structured our business and reporting according to the new organization setup. We have hired Amy Barrick from DuPont and as our new Head of Strategy and Business Transformation And Morten Rasmussen from Vestas to head up People Sustainability and Brand. They will both join us in April. We have entered into exciting partnership with Tivaudan that will focus on providing integrated food and cleaning solutions. Also as announced this week, we have entered into the area of enzymatic biocontrol for agricultural via long term partnership with a U. S.-based company, FMC. We have made a second exciting acquisition in human health to accelerate our North American presence and Strengthening our commercial capabilities. We had a strong 4 quarter from an innovation point of view, launching 11 new solutions in the quarter alone and reaching a total of 18 launches for the full year. On our journey becoming carbon neutral, our North American headquarters located in the state of North Carolina are now 100% Solar Powered. As you can see, we have had a very high activity level and this in a year that has been different in So many different ways. I am very proud of the way we, as a company, we have digitally navigated during these difficult times. And now It's time to look ahead. But before we present the 2021 outlook, I'd like to spend a few minutes reviewing the results for 2020. Could please turn into slide number 2. Organic sales performance was flat for the year and declined by 3% in the 4th quarter. This was all in align with expectations. The performance was mixed across the business areas, which were impacted That in different directions by the pandemic during the year, Household Care benefit will while Bioenergy and Grain and Tech and Processing contract. Sales in Emerging Markets grew by 1% organically, while Developed Markets declined by 1%. And our earnings and cash flow were solid despite a flat organic top line, currency headwinds and one off costs. Now let's turn to the outlook, where we expect sales to grow by 2% to 6% organically in 2021, And we expect solid earnings and cash flows. Sales growth will be driven by innovation, by stronger commercial presence and by a greater recovery In those industries affected by the pandemic. Let us now look at each of the business areas in a little bit more detail. Please turn into Slide number 3. Sales in Household Care grew by 5% organically, driven by the freshness rollout, increased penetration in emerging markets And supported by increased consumer demand for laundry and dishwashing detergents. Sales were flat in the 4th quarter, and this was As expected and driven mainly by destocking and lower demand from the professional cleaning area. In addition, last year Q4's comparator was quite demanding. The rollout of the Freshness platform continues to drive growth and to develop according to plan. The technology is available to consumers across most major European Markets and as well as parts of the Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Looking ahead, In 2021, growth will be led by the continued penetration of our solutions with the focus on emerging markets. And along with increased penetration, we are preparing for the broad market launch of the Freshness technology. This is a key milestone, And it is expected to become an important growth contributor in future years. We're also expecting consumer sustainability awareness to become an increasingly This is shaping up to become an exciting long term driver for increased usage of enzymes and microbes across the cleaning space. Please turning to the Slide number 4. Food, Beverages and Human Health grew by 1 Send organically in 2020 compared to 2029. The performance was mixed with Food doing well, benefiting from increased at home Consumption, while beverages, mainly brewing, was impacted negatively by COVID. Human Health progressed well, although it Only accounts for a relative small part of the business area. In the Q4, sales declined by 4%, which was roughly in line with expectations. The decline was driven by destocking in baking, while beverages improved compared to previous quarters. We have seen exciting progress for the strategic In Q4, we launched a new product BioFresh 4 plus and announced the Microbiome Labs acquisition. By acquiring Microbiome Labs, Novozymes has added a broad range of propurity Microbiome solutions. The acquisition also creates an attractive entry point into the North American probiotics market via network of health care practitioners. It is a key milestone for advancing Novozymes human health activities. BioFresh 4 plus It's a clinically proven enzymatic technology for fighting bad breath, giving up to 4 hours of lasting effect. Additionally, in the food space, we launched 3 new products for baking, 2 of which target the broad market, OPTIVA OLS, LS, which allows for a reduction of added chewing bread and GLU-sIME-forty, a solid reduction thyroid To baking conditions in emerging markets. And for 2021, we expect broad based solution growth across Food, Beverages and Human Health. Innovation and Emerging Market Penetration supported by increased consumer dietary health awareness And the main drivers for growth in the Food business. In Beverages, we expect a gradual recovery following the 2020 COVID-nineteen related disruption. Please turning to Slide number 5. Bioenergy declined by 9% organically in 2020. While the performance was mixed across the regions, the decline was expected and driven by the lower ethanol demand in U. S. Following COVID-nineteen related DICTIONS. According to the U. S. Energy Information Administration, production rates for 2020 are estimated to be down 12% to 13% compared to 2019. Outside of the U. S, all major regions contributed to growth. In the Q4, sales declined by 4%. Similar to the full year trend, the decline was driven by lower industry production rates in the U. S. However, the performance in Q4 improved compared to the lows early in the year. We also launched a new solution called Fortiva Hemi. Fortiva Hemi unlocks improvements in both corn oil and ethanol yields and is another step on our journey to provide Even better, full service solutions to ethanol producers. Looking ahead, the U. S. Ethanol production is expected to gradually recovery following last year's severe industry disruption. With a full recovery to 2019 production levels not expected until later. Further, uncertainty persists in the U. S. With high ethanol inventories, low producer margins and continued concerns about gasoline demand, exports more miles driven and higher blending A ways for the industry to expand. Outside the U. S, Novozymes' solid presence, combined with an underlying capacity expansion, It's expected to support growth also in 2021. And please turn into Slide number 6. Grain and Tech Processing, a combination of the former Food and Beverages processing areas and what we previously referred to as Tech and Pharma, Declined by 1% in 2020 and by 4% in the 4th quarter. The performance was mixed with Tech being the reason for the decline both for the year and in the Q4. The decline was due to the negative impact of COVID-nineteen Causing significant disruption in Global Textile Production. While the performance was still negative compared to Q4 2019, Sales declined less in the Q4 compared to earlier in the year. Grain fostered solid growth in 2020, With the Q4 roughly flat. Growth in 2020 was broad based and especially strong in Grain Milling and Vegetable Oil Processing. Starch grew slightly in 2020, but declined as expected in the Q4 due to timing. And for 2021, Grain and Tech Processing is expected to grow. Growth in the Grain business is led by Vegetable Oil Processing. And in Tech, Growth will mainly be driven by a gradual recovery in the global textile industry. Please turn into Slide number 7. Agricultural, Animal Health and Nutrition grew 1% organically in 2020 and declined by 6% in the 4th quarter. In 2020, the double digit organic sales growth in agricultural was broad based across the main categories. Also, sales benefited from a one off in the second quarter as previously highlighted. Sales in the 4th quarter declined mainly due to timing. Animal Health and Nutrition declined in 2020 following a weak second half of the year, including the 4th quarter. The full year sales decline can be explained by partially by inventory adjustments following a strong first half Of the year and partially by related weak end market demand for our Nutritional Solutions. In 2021, We will continue to build and develop the BioAg business across crops and regions, aiming for an underlying double digit organic sales growth. For Animal Health and Nutrition, the outlook reflects persistent uncertainty. This relates particularly to the nutrition part of the business As inventory levels in the value chain and COVID-nineteen implications are less clear. A strong product portfolio and partnership setup, Coupled with signs of improving farm and economics following many years of challenging conditions make us cautiously optimistic about the coming years. And that's all for me now. I will hand over to Lars. Lars, please. Thank you, Esther. Please turn to Slide 8. Let me start by reviewing the performance of our sustainability and non financial targets. As part of the updated strategy, We adopted a new set of ambitious sustainability targets. The framework considers both our opportunities for having a positive impact through our commercial solutions And our responsibility to minimize the impact of our own operations. The targets focus on the impact NovoSign's products have globally as well as our own operations and on our employees. For each of the global challenges, we have defined long term 2,030 commitments to set the direction And midterm 2022 targets to drive performance in line with our strategy. Here in 2020, We are already well on track to deliver on 12 out of our 13 targets set for 2022. We are very encouraged by this, and it demonstrates our relentless focus on the important ESG related agenda. Now please turn to Slide 9 for our 2020 financial performance. The group's organic sales performance was flat for the year And declined 3% in the 4th quarter. Sales in reported Danish kroner declined 3% for the full year and 8% in the quarter. Adverse currency developments, especially in relation to the U. S. Dollar, had a significant negative impact on the reported Danish krona numbers, While the additional sales from Precision Biotix Group, which was acquired in June, had a smaller positive effect on reported numbers. We delivered a solid set of financials in 2020 despite the very challenging conditions. The gross margin increased from 55.3% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020. The full year gross margin benefited from lower input costs, improved production efficiency and a one off settlement in the Q2 related to the former BioAg setup. The adverse currency developments and severance costs related to the September 1 reorganization affect the full year gross margin negatively. The 4th quarter gross margin was 55.5%, slightly lower than the 2019 figure due to negative currency effects. The underlying full year and 4th quarter gross margins adjusted for one offs and currency effects were somewhat higher than in the corresponding periods of 2019. The EBIT margin ended at a solid 26.1% in 2020. This was 2 percentage points lower than in 2019 and the difference is explained by currency, M and A and one offs. If we look at the 2019 EBIT margin, It benefited from the recognition of deferred income at the termination of the BioAg Alliance in the Q2 of that year as well as proceeds from divestment Of a pharma related royalty in the 2nd 4th quarters. Also, it was negatively affected by restructuring costs in the Q3 of 2019. The EBIT margin in 2020 was positively affected by the aforementioned one off in BioAg and a contingent income from that same pharma related royalty Divested in 2019. Furthermore, the EBIT margin was adversely affected by severance costs related to the September 1 reorganization, Transaction costs and P and L effects from the acquisition of Precision Biotics as well as transaction costs related to the Microbiome Labs acquisition in the 4th quarter. Also, we incurred an impairment loss in the 4th quarter. The adjusted EBIT margin, excluding one offs And accounting for currency headwinds ended at around 27% in 2020. This was roughly 1 percentage point higher And the 2019 adjusted EBIT margin of around 26%. The improvement was mainly driven by a higher underlying gross margin And lower operating costs. The reported EBIT margin for the 4th quarter ended at 23.1%, Which was 6.5 percentage points lower than in the Q4 of 2019. However, adjusted for the aforementioned one offs, M and A and currency headwinds. The EBIT margin in the Q4 was roughly 26%, which was similar to the underlying EBIT margin in the Q4 of 2019. The return on invested capital, including goodwill, ended at 18.9% in 2020, which was 2 percentage Points lower than in 2019. The decrease in ROIC was due both to lower net operating profit after tax and higher average invested capital. Net investments, excluding acquisitions, ended slightly above DKK 900,000,000 in 2020. This was slightly below the level in 2019 and equaled 7% of sales for both years. The free cash flow before acquisitions ended at a very strong DKK 3,400,000,000 in 2020. This was SEK 1,200,000,000 more than in 2019. The improvement was mainly driven by higher cash conversion from better earnings quality, The one off in BioAg as well as positive changes and timing effects in working capital. Please turn to Slide 10 for the 2021 outlook. Organic sales are expected to grow by 2% to 6% in 2021. The upper and lower bounds will mostly depend on the pace And level of the gradual recovery in the markets. Seen over the year, we project organic sales in the first quarter To decline by mid single digits due to a tough comparison. Full year sales in reported Danish kroner are estimated to be roughly 1 percentage point less And the organic sales growth outlook due to a negative currency effect and a positive M and A effect. For the business areas, Organic sales in Food, Beverages and Human Health and Grain and Tech Processing will grow by mid single digits, and Bioenergy is expected to grow by mid- to high single Household Care is forecasted to grow in the low single digits in 2021, following a better than expected performance in 2020. And we expect flat to low single digit growth in Agriculture, Animal Health and Nutrition. The EBIT margin outlook It's 25% to 26%, including a negative year on year impact from currency and M and A related effects of close to 1 percentage points each. Hence, adjusting for the negative currency and M and A related effects, the implicit underlying EBIT margin is 27% to 28%, And this is an improvement compared to the underlying EBIT margins of roughly 27% in 2020 and roughly 26% in 2019. The underlying development is mainly supported by sales growth as well as productivity improvements and also includes continued reinvestments in the business. The free cash flow before acquisitions is expected at DKK 2,700,000,000 to DKK 3,100,000,000. This is slightly lower than in 2020 as higher net investments and timing in working capital offsets the positive effects of higher sales and an improved operational cash flow. Net investments are expected at between DKK 1,000,000,000 and DKK 1,200,000,000. This reflects maintenance, expansion And optimization CapEx. And the outlook for the return on invested capital, including goodwill, is around 19%. Subject to approval at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in March, we proposed an unchanged dividend of DKK 5.25 Per share corresponding to a payout ratio of 51.9% compared to 56.8% last year. In addition, we are initiating a share buyback program of up to DKK 1,500,000,000 for 20.21. This is in line with our capital structure policy to return the free cash flow generated to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks At a net debt to EBITDA ratio of around 1. In summary, we expect positive sales and financial developments in 2021, while being mindful of the uncertainty related to the ongoing pandemic. Before I hand back over to Esther, I would like to give you an update on how we're tracking towards our midterm targets. You'll find them on Slide 11. We set the midterm targets back in June 2019 Based on a stable world economy, stable currency environment and excluding M and A activity. But the world has not been stable and currencies have moved. Novozymes has made 2 acquisitions in the human health space. We have scenarios for the 5 plus percent midterm Organic sales target in our 2021 outlook and in our plans for 2022. However, the world has changed and so have some of the parameters from 2019. And we address these new circumstances with a relatively broad 2021 sales outlook. When it comes to our earnings, we are also on track to deliver on our midterm targets. The implied 2021 underlying EBIT margin is 27% to 28% on track towards meeting the midterm 2022 target of 28% or higher. And the same applies to the underlying return on Capital, including goodwill, where we see 23% as being within range. And finally, we are also on track to deliver on 12 out of our 13 ESG related nonfinancial targets. With this, I'll now hand back to Esther for a wrap up before we open up for questions. Esther, please. Thank you, Lars. Please turn to Slide number 12. The work we've done during 2020 has built a Solid foundation and positioned us to accelerate growth, securing our long term potential. To continue our progress here in 2021, we will, amongst other things, work To drive sales from new solutions launched during the last 5 years to constitute more than 30% of our sales. Work to generate more sales leads with at least 50% of those sales leads generated digitally. Engage in at least 3 large commercial R and D partnerships. We announced the first one yesterday Through the collaboration with a U. S.-based company, FMC. Drive and be a strong voice on the world Staged for the ever increasing need for sustainable solutions by taking part in at least 3 global events, Such as the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. To summarize the message here today, We have a positive view on 2021 and beyond, despite uncertainties and the persistent challenges from COVID-nineteen. We continue to focus on bringing the voice of the customers into our business, and this will ensure that the solutions launched From our innovation pipeline are translated into commercial success with an even greater impact for our company and for the world. And with that, we're ready to take your questions. Operator, please begin. Thank you. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to 1 or 2 questions per turn and you may rejoin the queue to ask further questions. Our first question comes from the line of Gunther Zechmann from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Good morning, Esther. Good morning, Lars. I'll start with 2, please. First, I'd like to understand better your midterm targets In the context of your 2021 guidance. So understandably quite well guidance for 2021 given the uncertainty. For the 5% plus, is that a per year or a CAGR target? So anything that you may or may not achieve below 5% in 2021, Do you expect to recover that in 2022 or beyond that? That's my first question. And the second one on BioAg, Thanks for splitting out the targets for 2021 as well with double digit growth. Can you just remind us how big Soy, is it around 40% of sales in BioAg today? And how much of that double digit growth that you guide for It's from improved soft commodity prices, mainly soy. And how much is Novozymes specific Product launches and higher penetration of the acreage. Lars, if you could take the first question on the aggregated sales and Tina then Follow-up with BAIAK. Yes. Thank you for that question. So the way to understand our midterm targets is that this is sort of On an annual basis, so it's not cumulative. So you should consider them 1 by 1. So that's how we have defined the long term targets. And on BioAg, so we're looking at, as you were saying, Gunther, the double digit growth when adjusting For the one off which we had in 2020. And we expect growth both to come from corn and soy. We see growth From also from our Biocontrol area, both with the, you could say, with the products we have in the market like the Syngenta partnership, which we have, And then also from our innovations in the Upstream Corn area. So it is the growth is going to come from a mix of innovations as well as Chris, expansion and how we go to market. You also asked about how big is soy out of our bio ag, and it is roughly onethree, I would say. Great. Thanks, Tina and Lars. That's helpful. Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Good morning. Two questions On value energy, with the shift by the U. S. Ethanol producers to start moving towards more co products, Whether high protein cuts or trying to convert dry mills into Sugar Plants. Is that are those transitions a net positive or negative for Novozymes compared to the enzyme sold into the ethanol Production. And secondly, can you give an initial view on how the RFS might evolve after 2022? Dina, please. Yes, super good questions. So on the co products, we are I would say it is neither negative nor positive. What is positive, and that's what I think you'll see most, is that the ethanol producers, They need to have a good market in order to operate. And the possibility for them to generate more value from co products It is a positive in that aspect. The enzymes we are selling is also important for them to help them get higher, You could say higher benefits, whatever it is, whether it is in DDGS, whether it is in corn oil and so forth. And it gives us an innovation space to enter into. I'm sure you remember, we announced also a collaboration in that field with Green Plains about a year ago, A bit more than a year ago. So I would say it is a slight positive for us. It gives extra innovation space. But overall, The most important is that the ethanol, you could say, or the biorefineries, that they have a good outlet for the products, Being it ethanol or being it something else. Then on the second point you were asking about with the RFS beyond 2022. So in the U. S, right now, there is the mandated blending of these roughly 10% based on the IFRS. I think that what is key there is that in the U. S. And if you look at the economy for blending in ethanol, It is securing that you have a cleaner fuel, and it is securing that you have a more cheap fuel at the pump compared to if you didn't include ethanol. So overall, I would say that it is more the economics which is supporting ethanol being blended in the U. S. However, it is also important for the blending in that you do have the octane boost, which is an important part of a fuel mix as well. So I'm convinced that no matter what the RFS is going to bring beyond 2022, that there is both an economic as well as Performance based need for ethanol in the fuel mix and then not to forget that the CO2 reductions that it is delivering to the world. Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Soren Sansui from SEB. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning. Soren from SEB. First, on the new on the margin, you're talking about for 2021 underlying 27 to 28. When you say you can compare with 27 last year and 26 in 2019, Could you just when you then say we should compare with those years, what did you then, in that calculation, exclude and include in terms of, You can say, yes, one offs of things you think you should adjust for. That's my first question. So we stay with the first question, then last. Could you please answer that one? Yes. Thank you, Soren, for that question. So as we said, this year, 2020, was impacted by a number Of one offs, one of them being the reorganization and the cost associated with that. We have also In the Q2, you'll remember we have a positive contribution from the BioAg settlement. We also have M and A related effects in 2020, both the acquisition costs for Precision Biotics and Microbiome Labs As well as a bit of impact on the ongoing operational margin from Precision Biotech being on our books for half a year. And then here in the Q4, we took an impairment loss of 1 of our intangible assets. In 2019, we had a very substantial income In the Q2, in particular, related to the termination of BioAg of the BioAg Alliance where we Basically took the deferred income we had on the balance sheet and recorded as an other ordinary income. And likewise, We sold and divested the pharma related royalty stream. That both impacted second quarter and later on also a sort of A deferred income on that or contingent income in the Q4. And then in 2019, we We then had a negative impact from some of the restructuring costs we had in the Q3. So those were the effects of 2020 2019. Great. Thank you. And then just on Bioethanol, you did minus 4% in Q4. Just if you can remind us how did that compare with market growth? And what Has sort of what could what have impacted that you have grown differently than macro? How has it been going in yeast and in Brazil and etcetera? Tina, please. Yes. So Q4 EIA numbers It's roughly minus 7%, so it's a stronger performance from NOSIME side. It is driven by, I would say, A number of things. A, there's timing between quarters, as I'm sure you know, Soren, it's difficult with exact, you could say, Splitting in our upper quarters, then we saw growth from yes, both from yeast continued from yeast but also, I would say, mostly from emerging markets, Latin America, as we have talked about a number of times. And then I also think it's important to say that as we also have talked about a number of times, EIA is an estimate. It's not the only estimate which they are for the U. S. Ethanol industry. Our customer base now and then does something different and so does our performance. But overall, strong performance stronger performance than what EIA is indicating, driven by mostly Latin America, I would say, but also other emerging markets. Okay. And then finally, On if you could just tell us how would you think about how would the higher comp prices that you've seen recently impact Your business net net if you look across the areas in 2021? And also if you can remind us How big part of group earnings today that BioAg is? Thank you. So on corn prices, What we are seeing is that, in general, higher commodity prices mean that there's more benefit on the solutions we are bringing. So that makes me, you could say, cautiously optimistic for the agriculture Area, so including the feed area. And then also in the grain side, as we also see stronger benefit for our Solutions there. On the grain side, we need to watch it as well what is happening to sugar, as you know. And then on the bioethanol side or bio Energy side, it is, you could say, the margin for the producers, which is important. So overall, a higher corn price will lead to more wish in order to generate yield, but it needs to be That there's also a demand for the products or for the ethanol out in the market because if not, if the margin becomes too depressed, Then the producers will stop producing, and then that's a negative. So a bit mixed picture. Lars, could you build on also? So just one supplemental fact, which is that some of our input cost is, of course, also depending on the corn price. So there is A little bit of a negative margin impact on the gross margin from an increasing corn perspective. So just adding on top of the business perspective and the sales that China shared. And how big part of your earnings was Spireg today? So on the turnover wise, There, BioAg is roughly onethree of the segment on agriculture. Profit wise, we do not Share that detailed level even at the sub segment level. But margins are lower than group average. That would be fair to assume, right? So So we're not sharing the margins per business area. I think what you will know is that we have significant investments from an R and D perspective. And of course, we are making those investments in return for an expected longer term growth, But we're not sharing the details on the margin by the business area. What is important to mention on BioAg is, First, the strong pull that we see from the industry on the increased need for more sustainable solutions from both from the yield enhancement, but also from a biocontrol perspective. And then that this is a long term journey that we are investing and we are firmly moving ahead just because we see the strength And the fit for our solutions is providing the answers. The recent announcement we've made on the partnership with FMC is a true example Of the strength of our portfolio and why enzymes will be an enabler of replacing chemicals in the use of pesticides today. So we are in, we fully in, and we believe on the long term growth capabilities for this business as it continues to contribute to the bottom line today and will deliver Growth also in 2021. Okay. Thank you, guys. And the next question comes from the line of Michael Nowell from Nordea Markets. Please go ahead. Yes, thank you very much. It's Michael from Nordea. Two questions as well. So first of all, maybe I didn't hear it, but could you perhaps Just split up the FX impact and the M and A impact. So the actual negative FX and the actual Positive M and A impact for 2021. And then taking it to your midterm targets, Just to get it right, so let's say you only do 3% in 2021 and then you do 5% in 2022. Will you then have met The target, as I guess, doesn't sound like that on your CMD in 2019, it was more sort of an average of 5% plus per year, it said. And to that question as well, it's an organic sales growth on your slides at the CMB, whereas when you look in your printed annual report now, it just said sales growth. So is it organic? Or is it reported just to get including M and A? Thank you. I will let Lars go into the individual Fundamentals from the individual finance components of your question. But if there is one thing I would like you to hear from us is that we are a company that is positioned For growth, from both from an innovation capability, from the platform, from a technology and that the work that we deliver with the results that we show in 2020, if anything, it shows our The ability to react to a very volatile demand, to capture the upsides, what we did in Q1, but also to capture the ups the recovery That we saw through the year in bioenergy or segments like textile. So this year and the next one to come, we're going to continue to work And deliver on the underlying fundamentals that were set when we put our growth ambition. Those ones remain intact. We're going to continue to deliver on innovation. We're going to continue to bring in a stronger presence into the commercial Closer to the margin geographies, our stronger penetration of digital capabilities. We made the milestones already on putting the foundation Capturing growth in a segment such as human health with the 2 acquisitions we put. We are also living in a world with volatility, And we're embracing that one. What I want you to hear from us is that we're moving ahead firmly on the areas that we can control. And those ones, we stay Firm and positive and extremely motivated. And then we're reacting to the uncertainties that the market brings in, translating the number in the highest one That it's possible. We are in the growth space. Yes. And then to your questions, Mikael. So on the Guidance for 2021, we set approximately 1 percentage points of negative impact from both foreign exchange rates and also from M&A. And I think if you sort of take a look at the transparency we have provided on the exposure to U. S. Dollar. Then you will see that we have roughly 35% of our sales denominated in U. S. Dollar. If you look at the development from an average of 6.54% in 2020 to the current spot rates, That's a decline of 6% to 7%. And we say that 5% impact is roughly SEK 130,000,000 to SEK 160 SEK 1,000,000 on EBIT. So those factors means that from a U. S. Dollar alone, We are roughly 3 quarters of a percentage points impacted on the EBIT margin. And then you have the Chinese yuan and some emerging market Currency is on top of that, and you get to the 1 percentage points of impact on the EBIT margin. And then I'll just remind you also that some of that comes back on the Net Finance, where you see the benefit of our currency hedging. So if you look at our balance sheet, you can see that we have more than CHF 100,000,000 of assets in our hedging contracts there. And therefore also our guidance on net financials is a minus 50%, where we then see the impact. So So you get a vast majority of that back on net finance, what we lost on the U. S. Dollar. On Well, I guess this was just Just to give us the split out on the impact on the top line, how much is FX and how much is the M and A, I think I can, of course, do the calculations, but it would be easier if you have the numbers. Yes. So on the top line, it's roughly 3 percentage points of negative currency and plus 2 or so on M and A. And that plus 2 comes from the SEK 250,000,000 or so of base that we also shared with you in December when we announced the acquisition of Microbiome Labs. And then it's roughly SEK 100,000,000 of baseline from Precision Biotech's Group, where half of that, of course, helped us in 2020. So that's how those are compounded. And we were also transparent last year when we announced the acquisitions that each of them will impact the EBIT margin negatively by roughly 0.5 percentage points. So there you have your 1 percentage point of negative EBIT margin. So we have tried to be transparent along the way, and I think you can calculate those effects from what we have said Over the years. And then on the midterm guidance, as we also said, this year, we sort of embrace the uncertainty See, related to the pandemic situation with a broader guidance of 2% to 6%, and you can say the Speed of the recovery is sort of what determines to what extent we will be sort of at the upper or lower end or at the midpoint. We have made some assumptions that brings us to the midpoint. But of course, we are only trying to make our assumptions around the speed. Now obviously, if The pandemic goes on for a long time and the effect is lasting through 2020 and we see a recovery or rather 2021, sorry, And we see a recovery in 2022. Then obviously, that makes it easier for us to deliver stronger growth in 2022. But when When we announced the long term financial targets in 2019, we said we were targeting 5 plus percent in each year, and 2020 would be would probably be impacted by portfolio changes, so that's how we communicated in the summer of 2019. It was more the concept of how it's defined whether you hit the targets. So if you do 0 in 2020, you do let's say, theoretically, you did 0 in 2021 and then you did 6 in 2022. Would that be defined as meeting the targets? So we are targeting 5 And you do 6 in 2022. So we are targeting Michael 5 in each of the years. And that's what we believe we should deliver. So that's what we consider success. We are just saying that in 2021, there is still A lot of uncertainty, and therefore, we are guiding you 2% to 6%. And in that, you also see scenarios where the 5% plus is within reach. And then we're also aiming to deliver 5% on top of that in 2022. So that's what we are aiming for, and that's why we are still holding firm on the long term targets. Okay, perfect. Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Thomas Wrigglesworth from Citi. Please go ahead. Thanks, everybody, for the opportunity to ask questions. Just as a kind of a follow-up to that, more clarification. Just on that 2% to 6% range, can you give us what the kind of conditions to get you towards the higher end of the range You've made that outlook. And then secondly, kind of You've noted in Grain that you expect to grow. Does that include the Chinese sugar business, which obviously is seeing very Significant margin pressure at this point. And could you unpack what you expect vegetable oil processing to relative to that sugar the corn sugar processing business And will we match within that guidance? Thank you. Yes. On I'll take the question on the range and then Pass it to Tina. The range of 2.6% as from 2% to 6% as Lars Right. It embraces both our us moving ahead firmly on the areas that they're fully in our control and in that we set as the foundations of our Aspiration and also embracing the volatility or the uncertainty that COVID that's still present in each of us. It's also true that we have provided Ranges from the individual segments that they put the granularity and where we see the growth to become in a stronger fast. In Household Care, We're aiming low single digit, coupled with a strong growth of 5% that we had in 20 2020 in Food and Health, we are in the space. We're aiming mid single digit growth in bioenergy, a mid to high single digit aiming for a recovery Of Bioethanol in U. S, but also the continued penetration in emerging geographies. The faster that recovery, the higher The space of growth that we will all be, as we said also before, if we show something in 2020 was our capability to react And to respond to the market when the demand picks up. BioAg and Animal Health, we are on the flat To low single digit with a double digit with a strong growth that we're aiming in BioAg, couple it with a higher level of Certainity in the value chain, specifically in Animal Nutrition, in the Nutrition segment, With continued growth on innovation and valentures in the health aspect. And then grind and tech, here we are aiming on the mid single digit with Technical recovering, specifically the textile industry, it was a low end or the lows in the last In 2020, we saw the recovery already in Q4 and the trend we're aiming to continue to be that. Again, the faster, the faster our growth, Well, also the penetration of solutions in processing oils as a main driver of the growth in grain. So overall, a robust portfolio that set us equipped to deliver on the to be on the growth. And then with the mid Term of 4 and with the full alignment of the team to make it as high as possible, embracing that the world that we live, it is uncertain and volatile. And Tina, I'll pass it to you. Yes. So on the grain side and specifically on China and what is happening there. So As of now, you could say the solutions we are having in the grain space is, in fact, 3 areas. It's starts and distilling, which we expect to be flattish. We have Grain Milling, where we expect strong growth. And then we have some oil processing, which is, for example, our degomming and some oleochemical Solutions, we are having. And there, we expect also very strong growth. So that also goes for our business in China. Overall, on starts and the part of grain there, we are both having the grain processing set up, and then we have Sweetener Business. And on the Sweetener Business, right now in China, we are still seeing support for our solutions compared to sugar. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. Thank you, guys. The next question comes from the line of Lars Hopham from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Yes. A Couple of questions from my side. I was quite impressed by the 18 product launches in 2020. Is this a function of changes to how you do R and D? And can you comment on how These product launches are expected to contribute to sales in 2021 and beyond. And then secondly, on the freshness platform and the bigger rollout there, can you comment on how that is expected to Contribute to the low single digit growth you guide for Household Care for the full year and maybe also give some details on And what it means, I assume it means rollout in the U. S. And then I just had a very quick household question on the long term target. So When your margin target of 28% was at constant currencies, given the currency situation today, does that mean your target Currently, at Jervis, this is now at 27% margin for 2022. Thank you. Thank you. And we're also very proud of the penetration of our innovation and the traction we're getting in the market in a time That if anything, it could be reasons to provide the excuses to delay the launches. Those 18 launches are going to contribute on the target that we Just that we the commitment that we shared briefly a few minutes ago, it was on the 30% of our total revenue To be coming from solutions that they are less than 5 years old. And those launches, together with the ones of the past, They are both enabling the foundation of continuous ad keeping market, but also drivers of future growth, leading in total 2 30 percent of the total revenue and also a solid contributor of the profitability of Novozymes. And now with that, I'll pass it to you, Hannes, for commenting deeper on freshness. So thanks a lot for the question, Lars. Let me start with the low single digit Because of course, that's built in with our freshness assumptions. Now we delivered a very strong 2020, and it's on that basis that we are guiding for 2021. In that light, I think it's important to stress that we deliver probably to the tune of a couple of percentage points better in 2020. And we see there's a substantial risk that some of that growth will not come and that will reverse in 2021, Especially relating to the first half and again in March April where we saw a very significant spike, we've seen especially laundry normalize through the year. So we see 2020 2021 in combination, and that will give our Household Care business to a growth level of 3% to 4%. Now coming to freshness, we don't disclose specifically what the growth contribution is from freshness. But I will say that we had a we will have a Slower year in 2021 when it comes to growth and freshness than we had in 2020, but that was part of the plan. We knew that this would not be a straight line, And we knew that this would be relating to new product introductions. To watch out for in terms of freshness, we are bringing a broad market solutions in the powder space Midyear in 2021. Of course, there's a sales cycle, so it will not contribute substantially in 2021. That will take effect in 2022 and 2023. And then to your last point on U. S, we do not disclose exclusive collaborations and where we are launching technology with our innovation partners. I hope that clarifies. Sure. Thanks. And then on the Mitra, margin. Yes. On the last question, lastly, our guidance is 28%, assuming the U. S. Dollar rate we had back in June of Gene. And I mean obviously, we can't sort of change the guidance with a change in the spot rate of the U. S. Dollar, which was around €6.50 or so back then. So therefore, that is how we guide. And obviously, if we have a spot rate that's at the current level, then it will be roughly 1 percentage point It's harder to get there. And the underlying margin would then sort of be what we live up to. But we stick to our guidance to say 28% EBIT margin assuming the spot rates we had back in June. And then you make your calculations of the currency developments since then. You can just buy a lot of dollars last and then we'll get back to €6.50 So thank you for answering my questions. You're welcome. Our thanks to you. The next question comes from the line of Sophie Kruk from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Hi, how are you? Very well. Pleased to be here. Hi, Theresa. I have 3 questions. How long would it take to get a biopesticide product to the market in your collaboration with FMC, are those like 1 year projects, 2 year projects? And how do you measure them? Like the product opportunities, like SEK 100,000,000 per product or smaller or larger? And my second question is whether you can speak about your partnership with Yes. Shiverdan, are there product or revenue targets that you plan to achieve over like a 2 or 3 year period? And I was wondering whether you can just Talk about that. Thanks very much. Thank you. I'll let Tina and Hannes answer both on AG and Givaudan. And maybe one Holistic Common overall is the embracement of partnerships as an enabler of bringing our solutions faster and closer to the market and also getting closer to the market To the consumer needs and then translating those ones into answers with what we know, what to do best, which is Master of Science and Innovation. Tina? Yes. So let us talk a bit about the Biocontrol segment and the replacement of pesticides. So it was not an area which was much in focus during our collaboration and our partnership and our alliance with Monsanto. However, we have for quite some time had a product have been selling products into it, and we have supplemented it with the Tagro launch this year together with Syngenta. That's a microbe, and it's attacking a certain Fungal Infection in Fields. Now what we are doing now with the FMC collaboration is that we are targeting a new area, And we're using a new technology. So this is the first time where we are announcing a collaboration on enzymes for use in the biocontrol space. And here, we have 2 specific targets in mind, a combination with a chemical, the diamides and then also as a stand alone product, which is targeting another fungal infection in fields, in this case, in soybean. It takes Time to get to the market with new solutions. So we expect that, that is going to take 5 plus years. But as I started by saying, we have already solutions in the area, For example, our collaboration with Syngenta and with the TAE Grow launch. So over to Anders on SKUDA. So thanks for the Question on Schibonen. Let me start with just a little bit of the rationale for why we have made this partnership. We operate in very similar businesses, Schibonen and OZymes in Household Canned Food and Beverages. And we are considering both our technologies as highly differentiating for the end products that we are serving. And both of the ingredients that we deliver High Value Ingredients. So we think that there is a significant value in collaborating with a company like Chivadan. And then if you are to move into that space, We believe that there is no better partner than Chivaudan being the largest in the areas they operate. Now specifically to the question, we don't have a specific revenue target Said yet. We are exploring a number of different innovation avenues, and we are expecting to file IP during the Year of 2021. And of course, as we start to file IP, we also start to get a better feel for what's the value of the partnership. But give us a little bit of time, and we'll come back to sort of more clarity on how we will move this partnership forward. But I think we have started off on a good track. And I also will Finish off by saying that a lot of our customers are quite excited about working together with Novozymes and Schibbern in a three way collaboration. And we will move to very last question, please. Last question comes from the I'm Sebastian Bray from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I would have 2, please. The first is on the definition of midterm within midterm targets. This is given in the slides of 2020 to 2020 2. But I have the feeling that the targets have been rather overtaken by events since they were set. Is it reasonable to think of Novozymes as a 5% plus organic growth company post 2022? What is your own view on the achievable mid To long term rates of organic growth. And my second question is a more conceptual one. There were seemingly breakthroughs made last Speared by DeepMind and Google as far as protein folding is concerned. And one of the big features of the competitive motive of enzymes has been The data library gleaned through decades of experiments on how proteins fold. Is there any risk of the barriers to entry being lowered in the industry as a result of this breakthrough? I'll answer briefly your first question conscious of fine, and then I'll pass it to Claus For the second question. So the answer is absolutely yes. We are a growing company, and we are extremely confident on our capability To be on the growth trajectory of 5% plus for 2021, 2022 and beyond. And what makes us Formally believe that that's the case. It is not only the strength of our innovation pipeline, the and strengthening we're bringing our commercial organization with the latest Change of the organization, but if anything, the continuous pull and momentum we see for sustainable solutions across all segments. We see that in the tortions with a stronger appreciation for the consumers and our customers of biodegradable solutions. We see it in AG. We just told many questions Just today in the call on the need on alternatives that will replace pesticides. We see it on the increased level of health and Awareness of health from the consumers and we're investing the acquisitions we make in human health makes us stronger To be able to capitalize on such a growing market across all over the areas in all the markets we present, our solution, they provide answers To growing demand needs. So that puts us naturally as a 5% growing company. Claus? So thank you, Sebastian, for a scientific question here at the end. So it is exciting innovations from Google. It simply bridges Let's say the sequence understanding of a protein into a structure, so being able to predict, you could say, functionality, this is something that you would normally take X-ray chromatography and something else like that to study. So it takes time out of discovery. Now it doesn't tell, Except for function, much about how it will work in application and whether you can at all scale and produce such a protein. So it helps accelerate the discovery process, but nothing more at least in when it comes to Nossam's use of these technologies. So thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. Thank you all For your questions and dialogue, looking forward to continue the conversation with many of you in the next 4 coming days and Wishing you a very nice day.