Good morning. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the NTG Nordic Transport Group FY 2023 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Larsen, Group CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Welcome to our FY 2023 conference call, and thank you for dialing in. Let's move on to page two. Kindly ask you to read the important notice provided in this slide, and then let's move on to page number three. Here you see the presenting team of today. My name is Michael Larsen. I'm the Group CEO of NTG Nordic Transport Group, and with me today, I have Christian Jakobsen, our Group CFO. Let's move on to page four. Here you see the agenda for this conference call, which includes highlights for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, a review of the financial performance of the group and the two divisions, a presentation of other key figures, and finally the outlook for 2024 as well as our midterm financial target.
By the end of the presentation, the line will be open to questions from the audience. If we move on to page number five, here you see the main highlights for 2023. 2023 was somewhat a different story than the previous period. Macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty prevailed during the year, causing changing and challenging market dynamics. In a market characterized by declining freight rates and downward pressure on volumes, NTG's scalable business model confirms its ability to adjust and adapt to a new market environment. Both divisions experience a decline in organic growth and maintain focus on cost base reductions and sales force investments to adapt to the new market situation. The Road and Logistics division kept focus on contracted sales as a response to the challenging spot market with lower freight rates.
The Air & Ocean division faced a situation with declining freight rates and lower volumes due to the extended destocking cycle. Despite uncertainty and unpredictability and a performance delivering results at lower levels than in the previous years, we performed in line with our provided guidance, and I'm proud of the efforts made and the results delivered by our agile organization of competent and cooperative employees. With these words, I will now hand you over to Christian, who will take you through the financial results for 2023. Christian?
Thank you, Michael. Excuse my voice, cold, so it's up, but I hope it's going okay. On page 6, you see the main financial highlights for the group. Net revenue for the FY 2023 totaled DKK 8.3 billion, representing a decrease of 18% compared to 2022. Organic growth contributed -19%, driven by lower freight rates and activity, while acquisitions contributed with 3.7%. Currency effects had a negative impact of -1.8% in 2023. Gross profit decreased 7.3% to DKK 1.8 billion, corresponding to a gross margin of 22.4%, so just 19.7% in 2022. The pass-through effects in revenue had a positive effect on gross margins. Adjusted EBIT decreased 17% to DKK 630 million in 2023. The sustained level of operating margin was supported by the cost discipline demonstrated throughout the year and, of course, the earnout release of DKK 49 million related to the AGL acquisition.
If we move to page seven, you see the summary of the key financial performance indicators. As illustrated to the left, the gross margin development for the group was mainly impacted by an increase in both divisions when compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the lower rates, which support a higher gross margin. In the middle of the slide, you see the conversion ratio, which increased compared to last quarter and the same period last year. The development was mainly driven by the AGL release effect. If you move to page eight, you see the financial review for the Road and Logistics division. The division generated a net revenue of DKK 6.2 billion in 2023, 9.7% the same period last year. The decrease was mainly related to organic growth, contributing with -8.6%, driven by reduced spot market activity and lower fuel prices.
Effects had a negative effect on growth of 2% during the year. Gross profit decreased 4% to DKK 1.4 billion in 2023, corresponding to a gross margin of 22.3% versus 21% in 2022. Adjusted EBIT decreased 14% to DKK 467 million, corresponding to an operating margin of 7.5%. Throughout the year, the division adjusted capacity and the cost base in response to the market conditions. If we flip to page nine, you see the financial review for the Air & Ocean division. The division generated a net revenue of DKK 2.1 billion in 2023, a decrease of 36% compared to 2022. The decrease was mainly driven by a negative organic growth of 42%, partly offset by the acquisition growth of 10% related to the full year effect of the AGL acquisition completed in May 2022.
Gross profit decreased 15% to DKK 418 million, corresponding to a gross margin of 22.6% in 2023 compared to 16.9% in 2022. The margin development was mainly related to the significant decline in freight rates compared to 2022. Adjusted EBIT decreased 24% to DKK 167 million, corresponding to an operating margin of 7.7% versus 6.4% in 2022. The main margin development was positively impacted by the DKK 49 million earnout provision release we did in the year. And then if we flip to page 10, you see an overview of other key figures. On the left, you see that the net working capital decreased to minus DKK 209 million as per 31st of December 2023, a decrease of DKK 58 million compared to the end of Q3.
The adjusted cash flow totaled DKK 243 million in the fourth quarter of the year compared to DKK 263 million in the same period last year. Finally, on the right-hand side, you see that net interest bearing debt, excluding IFRS 16, was totaled DKK 103 million by the end of 2023. If we move to slide 11, you see the full year outlook for 2024, where we expect an Adjusted EBIT in the range of DKK 500 million-DKK 580 million. The outlook for 2024 assumes an overall flat market environment with soft macroeconomics and continued muted consumer confidence. The Road and Logistics division is assumed to persist in the current market environment for 2024 with low freight rates, soft volumes, and challenging spot markets.
The Air & Ocean division is assumed to remain in the current market environment with low freight rates and oversupply of freight capacity, which have adverse impacts for both freight rates and yields. We continue to closely monitor the activity and adjust capacity and cost base accordingly. The outlook for 2024 includes the effects of the acquisition of RTC Transport as of February 2024. The transaction was closed on the 14th of February 2024. The outlook does not include potential impact from other acquisitions during the year, if any. Currency exchange rates are assumed at current levels, and because the financial and geopolitical uncertainty remain high, the assumption underlying the outlook range may change. In addition to the full year outlook for 2024, we maintain our midterm financial target provided in 2021 annual report that you see on page 12.
No later than by the end of 2027, we strive to achieve an EBIT of DKK 1 billion. The target is based on a combination of organic growth and M&A, financed by our cash flow and credit facilities. No assumptions of capital raises are included, although we will evaluate the source of financing for larger acquisitions. Finally, the midterm target assumes no additional material adverse events affecting regional and global cargo volumes and trade balance, and NTG continuing to develop the business, establish startups, and execute on the M&A agenda. That was all what we had planned for today. Moderator, please open the line for Q&A.
Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Lars Heindorff of Nordea. Please go ahead.
Yes, ma'am. Thank you for taking my questions. If I can start out in the Air & Ocean, I wanted to get a better feeling for the organic growth, to what extent that is caused by the ongoing rate declines and to what extent it's caused by volumes. So maybe if you can help us out a little bit there because I think the magnitude and the speed of the decline is still pretty hefty in light of what we see by some of your competitors. So that worries me a little bit, to be honest. That's the first one.
I think we have already spoken about our challenges in Germany, so that means that there we definitely lost some market shares there. Overall, we are feeling the pressure of being a subscaled freight forwarder. Of course, main part of it is the volumes. Now we saw Panalpina also coming with there, so I don't think we are that much behind. But you're right. We have definitely lost something compared to the bigger freight forwarders.
Germany, would you remind me how much does Germany account for? Maybe I don't know in terms of volume or revenue of the Air Ocean.
I don't think we're giving any flavor on that.
Okay. And then the second part is still in the Air & Ocean is on the cost side. If I adjust for the earnouts and the reversal of that both in the third and the fourth quarter, it appears that at least in terms of cost base, that you've been able to reduce the cost base a little bit. I mean, how should we think about the costs going into 2024? Is this sort of a run rate here? We're talking about sort of low 80s in terms of DKK million in quarterly costs compared to, which is a little bit down from above 90 DKK million on a quarterly basis in the first two quarters last year. Now, how should we think about the cost base for 2024?
We have also made some new startups, and that will affect our cost base. I think we've been talking about this new startup with the U.S., Germany. And that cost base will, yeah, at least be 20 people in the first quarter. So you will see our cost base, of course, with declining in the rest of the business. But you're also seeing the startups that you had in the U.S., Germany. But you also see that we have opened new offices, as you can call them, startups within the organization in the U.K. So there you will also see us investing in new startups. So I don't think you will see a decline because that will be, yeah, countered by the increase of staff with the startup.
Okay. And then back to the situation in Germany. You've had a very significant amount of changes in the staff down there. I mean, just sort of top down, is this something which is going to work out? I hear you hired some new employees, and hopefully, you will fix this and solve some of the problems. But how long will it take, and how much patience do you have with that turnaround, which it appears that we're still waiting for in Germany?
We definitely have patience, and we have the right management team, and we have done the right things. And we just, yeah, caught some costs to adjust to the situation. But yeah, we are hit, and we are cutting to meet the challenges we have there. But yeah, hopefully, we are now in a stable situation in Germany.
Okay. And then the last one, and I'll hand over, is regarding the gross margin in the Air & Ocean, still close to 25% in the fourth quarter, of course, supported by the lower rates, I think. I think you had earlier mentioned that adjusted for AGL, you expected or hoped that you could get back to the sort of 2024, 2025-ish level in terms of gross profit margin in the Air & Ocean business. Is that still the case?
I think we have an okay gross margin. I think what we're missing is the number of consignments.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
The next question is from Dan Togo of Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. A couple from my side as well. Firstly, on the financial cost in Q4, seems to have taken a step up compared to previous quarters. Could you shed some light on what's driving the high financial costs in Q4 particularly, and also relating to the development here compared to Q3? I understand that the Earnout has increased a bit. Previously, you guided for $42. Now, you guide for $49. What is reflected here in order to understand the dynamics behind AGL at the moment? Let's start there, and then I have another one afterwards.
Financially, we have this earnout that we need to pay out to AGL, and therefore, we have some dollars in the Danish company, where you saw a spike at the end of Q3, and now you're seeing that it has lowered throughout this year. So we didn't change them to Danish crowns because we knew that we should pay them out. So that is some of the reasons. Then we have been hit by the Turkish lira, and then we have been hit by the Polish and the Swedish crown. So all currencies have been a little against us in the quarter. And then on top of that, you know this, that you have some internal balances where one of them in the parent company would be on the P&L, and the other one would be on the equity of the group. So it is not a running rate.
It is mainly due to, yeah, all currencies being against us. We had some positive in Q3, so I think, yeah, now it's equaled out. And of course, yeah, that's how it is. And then on the Earnout, yeah, it was simply because AGL didn't meet their budget and expectations for Q4, and therefore, the Earnout would be a little bit lower, and therefore, we reversed it. So that's a reason.
Okay. Understood. And then you maintain your DKK 1 billion EBIT target for 2027. And it's, of course, understood that you need to make some acquisitions in order to reach that. Could you share some thoughts around how you see that developing? What are we looking at here in terms of M&A activity, in terms of size of companies? What do you see yourself having in firepower, and which activities in particular? Will it be primarily Nord Europe or US, A&O? Just some thoughts, whatever you can share.
Yeah, yeah. If I start with buying power, we have set up to 3x EBITDA, and then you can see that we were close to zero with excluding IFRS 16, and then you have the other one including IFRS 16. So there you can do the math pretty easy yourself, what we see in buying power. And we have good we have made some yeah. We are definitely seeing that the market is getting more interesting for us. We have seen the sellers climbing down from the trees and being willing to do deals not on 2022, or now we're talking what is happening in 2023. So yeah, fortunately, this very, very high EBIT, and then you have the multiplier on top of that, that is normalizing, and that should make it easier for us as a company to do acquisitions in the coming time.
Then just the final one on the growth expectations. I understand your guidance is based on basically, yeah, more or less flat volumes, but still, you invest in the business with these hires you've made, etc. I expect you must assume some sort of contribution from these investments, i.e., higher growth throughout the year. Will this growth be more back-end loaded, hence H2 somewhat above H1?
Definitely. You always see that our startups, they take normally six to 12 months before they are coming into profit. So definitely, that will be backloaded to the year. But please remember, the reason why we have had such a high organic growth in all years, except from 2020 and 2024, will be that we have done both startups and acquisitions, and therefore, we need to we will keep doing this also for the future, even though that we know that it will cost something on our EBIT in the first in a certain period until the breakeven.
Yeah. But just to understand, so the 580 top end of the guidance range, that assumes some healthy growth in second half. Is that the way we should interpret it?
But we are not giving more flavor on that, Dan Togo.
Okay. Good. Thanks.
The next question is from Michael Rasmussen of Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you very much. First of all, if you could comment a little bit about the current environment in the markets, both kind of on an underlying European basis, but also if you could talk a little bit about the Red Sea situation. Is that something you see as a headwind for your business right now? So that's my first question. Thank you.
If you look at Europe, I think everything's muted. I think we saw that the German Maut statistics said that the number of trucks in Germany was down with 1.6% compared to a very low 2023. So it seems like it's still very muted out there. I mean, the Red Sea, now you're seeing all rates are going down again, and it's a new normal. And to my knowledge, I think we have there's enough capacity for the freighters. And that means that we would probably see that as a, yeah, of course, little positive for the prices, but it is a new normal. We don't see a big uptick, as you saw, with the corona based on the Red Sea crisis.
Thank you, Christian. On the road business, within which areas do you perform particularly well right now? And maybe also, if you can make a comment on which areas are more problematic for you right now. Thank you.
There's no doubt that the pressure with the macro in Sweden and Finland is, of course, also putting pressure on our business. And so I think, in general, we are handling it very well. But if I should say something in special, then it is definitely under pressure in Sweden. And then, of course, the Baltics, it's a small area, but they are also hit by the current macro.
Can you add some comments on the verticals? Are you seeing any improvements in, for example, automotive or other verticals that are worth mentioning?
To be honest, I don't have a big analysis from January, so. Yeah, February, we just ended there. I don't have any flavor on the verticals at the moment. It seems like, yeah, the furniture vertical is going maybe a little bit better than expected, in particular, our Danish furniture company is doing very well. They also won new market share. So what is the market, and what is us just doing well, that's hard for me to say.
Okay. Thank you. And just to follow up on the M&A questions already asked, so should we see it as an indication of something larger coming right now since you haven't announced a share buyback given the low leverage?
Oh, my goodness. We are very happy about our capital structure, and we feel that we have shares. We still have a good portion of owned shares, and that means, yeah, we are happy about that situation at the moment.
Okay. That's all my questions. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Ulrik Bak of SEB. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, Michael and Christian. Just a few questions from my side. In Germany, in December, there were these new Maut fees introduced. Just any color you can give about how the market dynamics have changed and how much prices, on average, have increased and how we should think about the road gross margin in this context. Thanks.
But the Maut increased 80%. So I think that, for us, most of it has been passed through to the customers. So yeah, for us, it's a pass-through. So we would probably see that it won't affect our gross profit in, yeah, in big numbers. I don't think we would be able to see that.
Okay. But it would be a fair assumption that your gross margin should then decrease on the back of this from Q1 and onwards?
I would see a small increase in the turnover , and then you will see probably a fixed gross profit.
Understood. Then my second and final question is that I understand that you have a fairly large exposure to Christmas tree customers in road in Q4, and this may also explain the relatively strong Q4 result in road. But can you perhaps disclose the volume growth for these particular customers versus the rest of the road business?
I think you're exactly right. I think I used it as an example of seasonality, that Christmas trees are always Christmas trees in Q4. So it's not that big. It is a smaller one. It was just to explain that you have some volumes. With Black Friday, you have Christmas trees, and we have a higher market share of Christmas trees. So yeah, it is not something where you could see that on our full result for the quarter. It is just an example. Christmas tree is not a big vertical. It doesn't qualify for a vertical.
Understood. Thank you.
This was the last question, Mr. Larsen. Back to you for any closing remarks. I'm sorry. There is one follow-up just registered from Lars Heindorff of Nordea. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you again for taking the question. It's regarding the recent RTC acquisition that you made. Maybe you can give us a status on that, and in particular, how the Swedish operations are doing. Yeah, that would be my question.
Sorry, I didn't understand the last part.
The recent acquisition you made last year in the RTC, a status on that, how it's progressing? I understand that you have had a little bit of headwind, at least in Sweden. So maybe a status on that one.
I'm not 100%. It is based in Denmark, so we have said that we want to grow it out to Sweden, but they are still only based in Denmark. So yeah, we have just started the integration process with the rest of the NTG Group, and that means that we are now implementing. And of course, we are finding the synergies, the cross-sale synergies, and everything. So it has just but yeah, please remember, we closed the deal on the 14th of February, so it's really early days. But we definitely have a good plan, and we need to execute on that.
All right. Thank you.
Mr. Larsen, back to you for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much, everybody, for your time. And yeah, have a nice day. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone. Thank you.