Azelis Group NV (EBR:AZE)
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Aug 9, 2022

Pamela Antay
SVP of Equity and Credit Relations, Azelis

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Azelis' Half Year 2022 Results Presentation. I'm Pamela Antay, Investor Relations. Joining us today are Hans-Joachim Müller, CEO, and Thijs Bakker, CFO. Jochen will give you a high-level overview of the trends and performance in the first half, and then Thijs will talk about our financial results. Joachim will then provide the outlook for the remainder of 2022 and then open the floor for Q&A. You will be on listen-only mode until then. As usual, this call is being recorded and will be made available on our website later today. With that, I'll hand you over to Joachim.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Good day, everyone. Thanks for dialing in and joining us for the presentation of our first half 2022 results. We appreciate it, especially as we know some of you are just back from vacation or about to go or maybe even, God forbid, in the middle of your summer holiday. As usual, I will start an overview of our performance in the first six months of the year on the next slide. As you might have already seen the press release earlier this morning, we had an excellent first half. Over these six months, our revenue increased by 54%, almost 28% of that growth was organic growth. I will discuss our growth drivers in a little more detail in the following slides. Overall, the momentum remains positive in most of our end markets across EMEA, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific.

We announced quite some new mandates in recent months. All these wins are excellent proof points that we continue to strengthen and expand our relationship with new and existing principals. Azelis remains very active in the ongoing consolidation of our industry. Year to date, we registered 10 acquisitions. Five of these 10 were closed within the first six months and had combined 2021 revenues of over EUR 184 million. On July first, we completed the acquisition of Voxa, marking our entry into South America. Voxa had revenues of over $150 million in 2021. The remainder of the total 10 acquisitions mentioned, another four, are expected to close in the second half of 2022 and had combined 2021 revenues of over EUR 160 million.

Those acquisitions strengthened our lateral value chain and hence will foster our innovation capabilities. Financially, we can easily see the benefits of our increased scale, the investments made, and our continuous process improvements reflected in profit margin expansion. In the first half, our conversion margin expanded by 673 basis points to 49.7%, despite the continued pressure on supply chains and the ongoing inflation. That is a testimony of the inherent resilience of our business model. Furthermore, our free cash flow was 74% higher than the prior year, despite higher investments in our working capital to support the revenue growth. Also, that demonstrates the strength of our asset-light cash generative model. These strong results are reinforcing the business and our network. We continue to invest and innovate for the future. We are on track with our digital rollout schedule.

As such, we have launched more customer portals and are very motivated by the take-up rate in markets where we have gone live. Our lab teams are busier than ever and are constantly coming up with innovative products and solutions. We have inaugurated our regional innovation centers for APAC and the Americas recently and increased the number of projects in our labs further. Now turning to the actual growth drivers in the first half of the year. Almost 28% of the 54% revenue growth we delivered in the first six months were organic. 22% came from acquisitions and 4% was from currency translation. Organic growth remains strong in Q2 at more than 23.3%, despite the tougher year-on-year comparables.

To give you some more color on the comps, organic growth in Q1 2021 was 6.7% and increased significantly to 17.3% in Q2 2021 as recovery from the pandemic started to accelerate. As you know, growth remained strong throughout the rest of 2021, and as reflected in our organic growth of almost 28% in the first half of 2022, that strong growth momentum continues. In the life science segments, in addition to the robust demand in the segments of food and nutrition and personal care, we are seeing a bounce back in pharma, which, as you know, had been quite soft throughout the pandemic and is now just returning to the pre-COVID level. In industrial chemicals in EMEA, CASE remains strong, as are rubber and plastics additives and lubes and metalworking fluid.

In Asia-Pacific, the long-lasting lockdown in China was reflected in the relatively softer CASE market, although the rest of Asia-Pacific delivered strong growth. Our business in the Americas enjoyed continuing tailwinds in Life Sciences and experienced positive pricing trends in Industrial Chemicals. It is worth noting that for Azelis, organic growth is still predominantly driven by volumes, confirming that demand is holding up. That is particularly true for Life Sciences, where in aggregate, volume growth still accounts for between two thirds and three quarters of organic growth. In Industrial Chemicals, the picture is slightly more mixed. Volume growth was bigger than price increases in lubes and metalworking fluids , whereas in CASE, especially in Q2, price increases have outstripped volume growth.

Across our business, the volume price ratio has moved from a historical trend of about 80/20 volume price to about 60/40 in aggregate over the past twelve months, reflecting the ongoing demand versus inflation trend. We are obviously watching the trend in our end markets very closely. Given that we see in our order book, and that we also gained new products and customers, which we onboarded in recent M&A gains, we are confident that we will keep growing volumes in the near to medium term. As mentioned, earlier, we made year-to-date 10 acquisitions. Six of them have closed, and the rest will close in H2. In January, we closed the transaction to acquire Umongo, which was signed and announced in Q4 last year.

Umongo gives us a good platform for lubes, metal working fluids offerings and complements our existing industrial chemicals footprints in Africa. In February, we closed the acquisition of Catalite, strengthening our personal care and home care footprint in Thailand. In March, we closed WhitChem, complementing our lateral value chain and industrial chemicals in the U.K. In May, we completed the acquisition of Tunçkaya, reinforcing our Life Sciences footprint in Turkey. In June, we closed Chemo India, adding to our lateral value chain industrial chemicals. These five acquisitions closed between January and June and have combined revenues of EUR 190 million in 2021. On July 1, we also completed the acquisition of Voxa, I mentioned that earlier, which marks our entry into South America. We'll also close the following four acquisitions, which were signed more recently.

Chemical Partners in Africa, Ashapura in India, Aktaş in Turkey, and ChemSol in Malaysia. Voxa and these four other acquisitions generated on aggregate revenues of EUR 270 million in 2021. Our M&A pipeline remains promising, and we are confident that we will continue to play an active role in the ongoing industry consolidation. Now, let's move on to the next page. I would like to give you a little illustration of what we do to add value to our customers and principals, how we formulate, and why the lateral value chain is important to us, and how we help our customers shift to safer, greener alternatives. In this first example, an agricultural customer wanted to improve his existing formulation. That formulation was already a natural, 100% plant-based formulation that had been effective for its primary use. It, however, had one unwanted feature.

Some of the solvents and emulsifiers were potentially hazardous, especially to aquatic life. Our lab team succeeded in replacing the potentially harmful ingredients by developing a non-hazardous water-based microemulsion. That formulation is significantly more environmentally friendly. Eventually, just a general observation. We're experiencing an increasing number of lab requests for formulations and even reformulations to move to safer, more sustainable alternatives. Now, going on to the second example, a new customer needed help addressing an existing formulation. That formulation had a grit problem. Grit formation sometimes happens, especially with water-borne coatings. Our lab team analyzed the problem and determined what was causing the grit to form. They then solved that by coming up with a formulation of both hydrophilic and hydrophobic solvents and other agents for viscosity, to adapt the viscosity to specifically the needs of that process to prevent grit from forming.

That is an example of how our teams provide customers with solutions to address problems with existing formulations. With this type of challenge, deep knowledge of the lateral value chain and intimacy with the products of all our principals are crucial in solving our customer challenge. Moving on to the next page, our commitment to sustainability. On this slide, you will see our progress against our main commitments. As illustrated by the case studies, we are playing an increasingly active role by supporting the trend towards more sustainable formulations. We remain focused on reducing our carbon footprint. By now, we have very robust methodologies to measure and disclose the progress of our sustainability efforts. We've just had our sustainability metrics and methodologies audited by PwC, and you will find all the details in our latest sustainability report published less than two months ago.

We actively promote gender and cultural diversity across the group and in senior management. Finally, we aspire to have best-in-class corporate governance and continuously build robust systems and processes. On the topic of governance, you might have seen that Tom Hallam was just appointed to join our board and chair our audit committee. He succeeded Jürgen Buchsteiner. Jürgen has provided us over the last four years instrumental support throughout many milestones, and we are grateful for his service and wish him all the best in his new endeavors. We're excited to have Tom as part of the board, and we look forward to his support and challenge. He needs to make sure that we stay on our toes and continue to step up our game. Let all follow our corporate mantra that everything can be improved everywhere at all times.

I do not doubt that he will contribute to many healthy debates in our board meetings. All that to ensure that we work for the good of all stakeholders. Now, hand it over to you, Thijs, to talk about our numbers.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Yeah, thank you, Hans-Joachim Müller. Good morning, everyone. I will now provide you a brief summary of the group's financial performance in the first half of the year. Let me start with the P&L overview on slide 11. You will find a summary of our half year P&L and a quarterly split. As you can see on the slide, we're very happy to report strong growth trajectory, resulting in revenue for the first half year of EUR 2.019 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54%. Measured in constant currency, growth came at 49.9%. The strong performance was on the back of a record organic growth, 27.6% across all of our three regions. Revenue growth contribution from acquisitions was 22.3% and a 4.2% tailwind effect in the first half from FX translation.

If we take a look at our operating segments in the second quarter, growth remained very strong in both Life Sciences and Industrial Chemicals. Higher year-on-year growth in Industrial Chemicals, partly due to the acquisitions we have made in that segment in the last 12 months, in addition to our organic growth. Quarter-on-quarter revenue growth achieved a level of almost 50% in the second quarter, following a very strong first quarter with almost 60% revenue growth. The strong growth trajectory, the continuation of positive development of our order book, and lastly, regular business seasonality led to elevated stock levels. Therefore, our working capital levels increased. Back to this later. Our gross profit increased 65%- EUR 489 million. Out of this growth, the majority or 38% was organic. Gross profit as a percentage of revenue ended at 24.2%.

The 157 basis point year-on-year expansion was the outcome of mix effects and despite the well-documented inflation in the industry, reflecting also our effective pass-through policy and active approach towards pricing management by selling more products and principals towards our customer base by our technical sales approach. We call this the lateral value chain. In the first six months of 2022, Azelis generated an Adjusted EBITA of EUR 255 million and a corresponding EBITDA of EUR 243 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 91% or measured in constant FX, 86.10%. Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of revenue increased to 12% for the first six months of 2022. The 230 basis point margin expansion is a reflection of the strong top line growth, pass-through pricing efforts, and benefits of our growing scale.

This result also reflects elevated bonus accruals to cater for this performance. As such, the conversion margin calculated at Adjusted EBITA in percentage of gross profit improved strongly from 42.9%- 49.7% in the first half of 2022. Reduced financial cost and lower effective tax rates, and I will discuss this a little bit later in the call, have further driven profits for the period, allowing the group to generate net profit of EUR 141.7 million, which is almost 3x what we delivered in prior year. Okay. Let's move on to the next slide on page 12, where we have broken down the 54% reported revenue growth and the 65% reported gross profit growth between organic and growth coming from the first time inclusion of acquisitions and FX effects.

The strong performance for the first half year was furthermore supported by the disciplined execution of our M&A pipeline. As Jochen mentioned, over the course of the first half year, we have closed five transactions. Although the IFRS effect is much smaller, these five have a combined annual revenue of around EUR 190 million and a gross margin of EUR 32 million based on 2021 numbers. For a more detailed split, I refer to the business combination section in our half year financial report. In July, we also closed Voxa, which marks our entrance to the South American market. Also note that a significant portion of the acquisition's still not part of our organic growth calculation, with 22% of the revenue growth in H1 coming from the first time inclusion of acquisitions.

As you can see on this page, the majority of our growth came from the key pillar of our growth strategy, namely, our organic growth, driven by gaining principal positions and expanding the lateral value chain. All of our regions delivered high double-digit organic growth of between 23% and 33%. Even more important, you see the robust organic growth in our gross profit during the year. Out of the 65% growth in our gross profit in the first half of the year, 38% was organic, clearly reflecting the benefits of our growing scale and the effectiveness of our pricing policies. The next slide on page 13, you'll find a bit more detail on the year-on-year regional financial performance. Have a look at that, and we'll provide you some more color on this.

In EMEA, revenue increased 53% - EUR 960 million. This growth was driven by strong organic growth, 32.3%, and growth from the first time inclusion of acquisitions was 22%. Where in 2022, we closed Umongo in South Africa, WhitChem in U.K., and lastly, Tunçkaya in Turkey in May. Gross profit margin in EMEA expanded despite inflation pressure driven by mix. Strong geographical performance across the board, but in particular, Life Sciences in the Middle East and Africa did really well. In EMEA, Adjusted EBITA increased 79% - EUR 120 million, and the region achieved a 13.1% EBITDA margin. This drove an excellent 697 basis points expansion in conversion margin from 46.5% - 53.4% in the first half of the year.

Order book remains strong with accelerated demand levels in Life Sciences and in particular, Agricultural & Environmental Solutions, where Joachim alluded to. The formulation side of the business is very strong. Now let's move over to the Americas. Revenue increased in the Americas with 44% - EUR 763 million. This growth was driven by strong organic growth of 23% on the back of strong end market demand in Life Sciences. The Americas delivered a 414 basis points gross profit expansion, partly driven by mix from top line, top line growth, in particular Vigon, and effective passthrough policy, where the team did a fantastic job. Adjusted EBITDA increased with 88% - EUR 108 million, and in the first half, ended at 14.1%.

Adjusted EBITDA margin, an expansion of 326 basis points, driving up a 457 basis points step-up in conversion margin from 50.2% - 54.8%. The excellent margin expansion was on the back of efficiency gains, effective pricing management, and positive mix effects from the inclusion of Vigon. Asia Pacific continues to be the fastest growing region for the group. I'm on the right side of this slide now. Revenue increased with 86% revenue growth to EUR 339.7 million. The regional accounts were 17% of the group revenue versus 13.9% in H1 2021. We are executing well on our strategy to grow in this particular region. Revenue growths were driven by strong organic growth of 26%, and the remainder driven by M&A.

Gross profit as a percentage of revenue ended at 19.7% compared to 20.6% in 2021. This is solely driven due to a negative mix effect from recent acquisitions. Organically, our margin levels increased well above 21%. As we are making progress with executing our strategy and expanding Asia Pacific via M&A as a growth pillar, we expect this to be a solid platform for future margin expansion by expanding our lateral value chain. Despite our ongoing investments in this region, Adjusted EBITA increased in Asia with 106% - EUR 29 million, and Adjusted EBITA margin ended at 8.4%.

A strong Adjusted EBITA improvement of 79 basis points, resulting in a 567 basis point expansion in conversion margin, from 37%- 42.7% during the period. From here, let me take a moment now to talk you through the details of the net profits, the drivers on the next slide or page 14 of this deck. We're quite happy to report, in addition to the strong revenue development and margin expansion, that our operating profit doubled to EUR 212 million. There are a couple of considerations which I will take you through. Azelis' net financial expense in the first half of 2022 was reduced from EUR 29.4 million - EUR 21.1 million due to the lower debt load and also more favorable interest rates on our loans.

Tax expenses in absolute terms ended at EUR 49 million, driven by the higher profit before tax, and our effective tax rate reduced to 25.7% versus 37% in the prior year. As we communicated previously, we have ongoing programs in place to simplify our structure so that our taxes more closely reflect the geographies where we generate profits. Driven by the additional uplift from the lower financial cost and tax rate, net profit had an almost threefold increase to EUR 141.7 million. Let's move on from here to the cash flows side of the business. On this slide, I present to you a high-level overview of our cash flow. The absolute amount of free cash flow ended at EUR 139 million, a substantial increase compared to prior year. Despite that, our cash conversion decreased to 57%.

This is mainly driven by working capital to accommodate increased business activity levels, facilitating also the order book with our buildup per our regular seasonal pattern. Also additional working capital investment as a result of the M&A activities that we do. Working capital is the main driver behind the cash flow movement. I would like to provide some more details on the next slide on page 16. Net working capital as a percentage of revenue normalized for acquisitions ended at 15.4% at the end of June, compared to 15.3% at the end of December and 12.5% at the end of June 2021.

The bar chart on the left here provides you the details on the underlying working capital components in absolute terms, as well as in days, and the chart to the right gives you an overview of the seasonal comparisons over the years of a working capital development. In absolute amounts, working capital remains at elevated levels compared to previous years, and trends lagging with elevated demand growth levels in our business. Working capital has been trending higher since Q3 last year, driven by ramp-up in inventory to support the ongoing strength of our order book, as well as the onboarding of recent mandate gains. To provide you a bit more background on the inventory buildup, as we have been very active on the M&A front, about EUR 180 million in working capital increase is driven by M&A, which around EUR 135 million relates to inventory acquired.

We are making progress on the inventory levels, but this will take time to get them to Azelis standards. Organically, net working capital as a percent of revenue would have ended at 13.4%. Also, there's a second effect in here. In our numbers, there's a goods and transit effect from our suppliers, as we still experience supply delays. This increased to around EUR 30 million year-over-year. To be clear, we do not expect this to be structural. On a reported basis, net working capital ended at 15.7% of revenue, and of course, we're working continuously to gradually bring our business to normalized levels by our systems and our processes. This brings me to the final slide of the deck, a summary of our debt position and leverage ratio on page 17.

Our net debt at the end of June increased with about EUR 120 million versus the end of December to EUR 991 million. Given the significant EBITDA expansion during the period, our leverage ratio has improved materially to 2.3 times compared to 2.7 times in December. The absolute increase in net debt was driven by EUR 151 million in cash flow being used largely to fund acquisitions, income tax, interest expense, and to a lesser extent, dividends and share purchase for our LTIP program. Also, you might recall that in April, we topped up our syndicated loans by EUR 350 million to increase the flexibility in our funding position by effectively widening our RCF flexibility.

Despite this and the busy M&A pipeline and activities that we performed, we reduced our leverage in line with our historical track record and in line with our objective of deleveraging and staying below three times net debt on EBITDA. At the end of June, we had liquidity of around EUR 660 million in both cash and unused RCF. With this, I will hand over back to Joachim for some closing remarks.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you, Thijs. Well, in summary, I think it's fair to say that we had an excellent first half of the year, and I'm very proud of what the Azelis team has accomplished. Our teams are working relentlessly to deliver convincing results and to position Azelis as the leading innovation service provider for the years to come. Our industry is so diverse that it's hard to predict accurately with high certainty during a normal time. I guess you all agree that defining the time we all live in as normal would be a stretch. Predictions became more challenging as the situation in some geographies where we are operating in is volatile. Look at the frequent lockdowns in China, and the uncertainty of the direction of travel of our global economy is rising. Nevertheless, as said, I'm proud of our performance, demonstrating the resilience of our business.

Our M&A pipeline remains brilliant. We continue to secure significant mandates from principals, and our labs are busier than ever with customer requests. Eventually, our order book continues to be strong, indicating that the weeks and months in the immediate future will continue to be strong. Based on this, we believe that for the full year of 2022, we should achieve EBITA of between EUR 410 million and EUR 425 million. We realize that this is the second time in three months that we are providing a short-term guidance update. Please note that this is in fulfillment of our duty to you, our shareholders, to be as transparent as possible and provide updates when we know that our results will be meaningfully different from market expectations.

In the future, we intend to stick, unless we think our performance differs materially from consensus expectations, to our midterm guidance of 8%-10% annual revenue growth and a continued 10-15 BPS EBITA margin expansion. Now, that brings us to the end. We will always strive to make ourselves available to address all the questions. Let's go to Q&A now.

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, participants can also submit questions through the webcast page using the Submit a Question button. We will pause for a moment to assemble the queue. We'll take our first question from Stijn Demeester of ING. Please go ahead.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Research Analyst, ING

Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Three questions, if I may. The first one is on the guidance. It seems to apply sequential softening in the second half, which I assume is driven by macro uncertainties. Can you comment on the visibility on Q3 trading and where you see or would expect first pockets of weakness to arise? Second question is, in terms of organic growth, Asia-Pacific seems to be lagging EMEA and Americas. I assume that is predominantly driven by ongoing COVID restrictions in China. Can you comment on how and when you would expect these elements to resolve, in the second half? The last question is on the EUR 217 million of acquisitions that have not been closed yet. Can you roughly give an idea on the EBITDA margin on these acquisitions? These are my questions.

Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you. I appreciate. I'll take the first two, and you take the third one, if that's okay. On the guidance we are giving. Well, first of all, let me start that usually in our business, whatever has been usual for many years is that the second half is slightly weaker than the first half of the year. We will usually think 55% is done in the first half of the year and then 45% with regard to revenues in the second half of the years, just reflecting what's happening in the holiday season and business winding down. Are we seeing a softening? No, I think as clearly said, we still have a really strong order book, also, for the weeks and months to come. This is what I said.

However, also you can see that from the widened guidance, it is obvious that the uncertainty in the market has increased since we spoke last. There is this level of what will the gas situation in EMEA do for some of our partners, which is lingering. What is their recession coming? These are all things we factor in. But as one of you wrote in a report earlier today, is that the company has always tried to under promise and over deliver, and we try to keep on that route also going forward. Yes, we are cautious in our prediction, but again, this is reflecting uncertainty in the markets we're operating in. On APAC, very true, yes, China had some headwinds, especially as the economic center of Eastern China, Shanghai, was in severe lockdown.

Our team did a fabulous job to keep the business running, working from home, sometimes, really doing things I never would have thought, people would be doing and just bending backwards to make sure that our customers and principal desires are met. That's all good. However, there was a significant economic slowdown. They are now open to operate. However, as you might have picked up in the press, there are still lockdowns in China. They just two days ago locked down the complete island of Hainan. 800 vacationers are stranded now in the southern part of China. That will not have an effect on our business, but gives you an indication that the, how fragile the business development in China is also in the months to come. When we will come to a normal here, hard really to say.

We did see some pickup of the business over the last couple of weeks, and the order books is strong. How sustainable this is, only the future will tell. All in all, we are pleased with the progress we made in APAC with regard to margin expansion, and we're confident, and we said that in earlier calls, that eventually we will move with the increased offering on innovation capabilities, also APAC into the realms where EMEA and Americas operate. Now on to you, Thijs.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Stijn, thanks for your question. On the EUR 270 million revenues based on 2021, EBITDA levels are comparable to our own business between 11%-13%.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Research Analyst, ING

Okay. Thank you. If I may squeeze in one question related to the sort of very helpful comments on volume versus pricing, the 60/40 equilibrium. How confident are you looking at 2023 and with your history or experience in the business, how confident are you to hold on these pricing gains? Thanks.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Also, I think we indicated earlier through our increased offering in services, innovation service, advice on how to use these formulations, we are confident that we will keep the margins and, as said, midterm expand by 10-15 BPS year after year after year.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Research Analyst, ING

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Suhasini Varanasi of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my call. My first one is just to follow up on the previous question on the order book. Given your positive commentary on the order book, is it possible to give some color on how the sequential trends have been, versus, you know, Q2? I appreciate, you know, the seasonality has probably been thrown out the window, this year and last year. Would you say that given how strong the order book levels are currently, that they are up on a sequential basis versus Q2?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Yeah. Can do that. You chip in. As indicated, order book is strong. Obviously, our comps are becoming harder because the second half of 2021 was also we've experienced a very strong growth. Yes, so far we really don't see a weakening of demand. On the industrial side, as indicated there, you would expect that with housing starts also slowing down in the U.S. Some pockets, like on the construction side of the U.S., are not growing as strong. As I think we indicated also that in here we see price being more dominant than volume growth. On an aggregate, if you look at the whole picture, we remain very confident for the weeks and months to come. Is that fair, Thijs?

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

No, I think so, Suhasini. I think the comps are, of course, getting more tougher if you do a quarter-on-quarter comparison. Overall, the order book for Q3 looks good. We baked in, of course, some uncertainty, of course, in the market in our outlook as well.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you. The second one is on the lower water levels on the Rhine River in Europe. I think recently there's been a bit of press around shipments getting delayed or canceled in Europe. Is there any comment you can make on how you see that affecting your supply chain? Maybe does it exacerbate the supply chain constraints in Europe?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Well, obviously, we're in constant dialogues with our partners on manufacturing along the Rhine River. Leave aside that they all have their contingency plans on what to do with their products. Most of them, they have assets elsewhere in the Americas or in Asia to manufacture these specialties. From this point of view, obviously, if the water levels continue to fall, it will become. We're currently at the historic low levels. We never had that before. 2019, we were at 160. Now just yesterday they announced that Koblenz at 110, which is kind of really insane. Yes, it will affect some of the supply, but reckon we are not dealing on the commodity side. We're talking specialties. With specialties, you're not talking gazillion amount of volumes.

You're talking much smaller volumes, which also can be supplied through other means and their alternative supply from other regions. Will there be an effect? Will it become easier with regard to getting supply chain going for some of these products currently sourced from manufacturing assets close to the Rhine? No, it won't. Will we see that supply comes to a grinding halt? I don't expect that to happen.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much. The last one is on German gas shortage situation going into Q4. Appreciate you've given an outlook, but wanted to get some color from you on what your suppliers are telling you, what your customers are telling you, generally around Q4 and, you know, potential gas shortages. 'Cause I think the concern is that obviously the industrial production slows, etc . Is there anything that your suppliers or customers are telling you in that regard? Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you, Suhasini. We're in constant dialogue, obviously, with our principal partners and with our customers, how they will react to it. Fact of the matter, already today, some of the manufacturers, because the energy prices are so high, they're really running at full steam and from our customers' side. There is already some slowdown at their end. We don't see that yet, but it's known, it's out in the market. What the effect will be on the gas shortage, leave aside the EU Energy Act, now in force. Germany needs about 250 terawatt of energy from gas in a month, in the winter months.

As it looks now, if we stay at the current level of 20% supply of from Russia on gas, the German economy and society will be facing shortages already at January level. If the reduction will kick in as predicted right now of about 22%, then we will be able to drag that out for the German economy and the people till about end of February, maybe middle March. You see there's a lot of this maybe and will be out and a lot of assumptions also. If Russia decides that none of the turbines is working anymore and there will be zero gas coming up, the situation will become grimmer, especially for the society, but also for some of the manufacturers.

There's multiple efforts going on with our principal partners on substituting gas, moving it either into oil and coal where possible. I'm confident that there will be solutions going forward, allowing us to get access to the products we need to bring into the market. However, now drawing a little bit bigger picture and looking at our operations, yes, EMEA is the biggest region we're having. As Thijs mentioned before, we're now 70% of our revenues on an IFRS basis generated in Asia, plus we have a very significant position also in the Americas by now. It will affect some of the industrials business in EMEA. I don't expect it to be a large extent. Also, there's another element we should mention is that we do in Europe a lot of from the Life Sciences side.

Life Sciences often is less dependent on energy as compared to when you come from hydrocarbon-based chemicals and they have to convert them in a steam cracker and then go to EO and then do some epoxidation and then amination and so on and so forth. There's a little bit different dynamic in it. In all, remain confident that the situation will be manageable for us.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

That's very clear. Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Sorry.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Sorry, if I just have one last follow-up, please. Should I leave it and I can come back later?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

No, go ahead.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Sorry. What percentage of your supplies come from Germany, please? What percentage of your revenues come from Germany?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

I don't think we disclose this number, but it's fair to say that it's a single-digit number on our revenues generated in Germany. Really, it's not big. From the sourcing point of view, I think you checked out the numbers, right?

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Yeah, of course.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Not requested.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

We have a significant position with BASF, but we only import from America around $15 million from Düsseldorf, for instance. That's also marginal. Germany, with Suhasini, if you recall, we see this as a white space for us for growth opportunities.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Not wide, but lots of room to grow. Let's put it that way. Just to say, obviously, as I indicated that, we're able to source for the big guys to have assets elsewhere too, right? We're not kind of hooked on one asset, which also will help us.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Very clear. Thank you so much, and sorry for taking so much of your time. Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you for the question.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Laurent Favre of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Laurent Favre
Senior Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Jochen, the question really is about that 2023 comment you made around the confidence to grow margins by 10-15 basis points. I mean, the easy thing to do would be to say that this year is exceptional, and therefore it might not apply to next year. It doesn't seem that you're doing that. I'm just wondering, can you talk about the levers that you have and I guess the areas where you are confident you can grow margins after such an exceptional year in 2022? Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Well, Laurent, that all hinges on our efforts we're doing around developing innovative solutions in our labs. The more service you bring to customers, obviously the more you help them, the more they're ready to pay to you. That's something we're pushing throughout the group, a big effort for years to improve our service levels with regard to innovation. This will enhance obviously also margin. We have seen that year after year after year. The more we deliver to our customers, the more successful they are in the end markets they serve, the readier they are to pay us or give us a better share of margin. I think there is no magic to it. You're right. We're also thinking, "You know what? We had such great performance. Should we stop here?" No, I don't think so.

This industry has quite some room to go because with the innovation levels we're at, we still can push quite a bit value for our customers on that. Case, you have a point you wanna add?

Laurent Favre
Senior Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Go ahead. Thank you, Laurent.

Laurent Favre
Senior Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you. Maybe as a follow-up, thank you for all the color around Germany. I was wondering if you could provide a similar color around Italy, which I guess also has potential shortage issues on gas.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Italy is an important market for us. Actually, more significant with regard to revenue as compared to Germany. As a manufacturing hub, Italy is not so significant. From a sourcing point of view, we do source some, but the effect will not be significant. I think on Italy, we can continue to be confident that we will deliver at the levels we're delivering. Also worth noting, we have a strong asset position in Italy, which is not really dependent at all on these type of disruptions we're expecting on the gas side.

Laurent Favre
Senior Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you very much.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

That help?

Laurent Favre
Senior Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Yeah.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you, Laurent.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Chetan Udeshi of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi. Thanks. Morning. A few questions. First, I was just trying to back out what was the volume growth in first half based on your split that you gave of 60/40, and it comes to about 17%. I mean, I haven't seen that sort of volume growth for probably any of the chemical companies. So I'm just curious if you can give us some sense. I know you mentioned broad-based growth, but you know, if you can give us some color from an end market perspective, you know, where you've seen maybe stronger and less a somewhat weaker growth. I think that would be useful.

The second question was, can you help us with what assumptions have you made around total M&A contribution and effects for full year 2022 in your EBITDA guidance? Because it seems if I try to back out the math, or at least my math suggests maybe the implied organic growth in second half is essentially zero. But any color on what you would need for M&A and effects will be useful.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Okay. Thank you, Chetan. I'll take the first one and Thijs, you on with the second one. Volume growth, what drives that? Yeah. I'm not quite sure how you derived it, but it's true. The volume growth we have seen was really very convincing. However, what you have to take into consideration, I also mentioned that we were able to gain some very sizable and good mandates, which usually comes with also volume coming to us. So that has helped us tremendously. This is true for Life Sciences, but that's also true on the food and nutraceutical side, but we also gained some very nice mandates on the pharma side, but we're also successful in expanding on the CASE side. It's all published.

We got a nice lubes mandate, so there is a lot of this volume, not a lot. There's some volume coming from new mandate gains, which obviously makes it easier to report a good growth number on volume. Now, if that, Chetan, would be answering your question, I would hand over to Thijs.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Chetan, I'm not.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yes, thanks.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Chetan Udeshi, I'm not completely following your questions here, but okay. I think the answer lies, of course, that obviously from 2021, where obviously our comps are getting more difficult. Following our 91% year-on-year EBITDA growth in H1, the top end of our guidance calls for basically 30% year-on-year growth. Let's put some context around that. H1 2021 was made up of a relatively slower Q1, still in pandemic, and a very strong Q2. That has an effect, of course, on the numbers. Now, having said that, also, if you take the top end of our guidance, still implies at least a 30% growth over a very strong second half of last year.

This is 30% on top of the 52% in H2 2021, despite the rising uncertainty. Now, taking into account, the Q3 order book is looking good. We also said that the historical cycle was last year broken with Q4 going up. We have still big baked in that we expect a more regular pattern for Q4, and that's obviously conservative. At this time, we believe it makes sense to be more prudent. I can tell you one thing, we'll have sufficient organic growth in Q3 and Q4.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Thank you, Chetan.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Henk Veerman of Kempen & Co. Please go ahead.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Hi, good morning, all, and thank you for taking my questions. I do have some follow-ups. The first one is on the margin side because if you allow me to ask a follow-up on that, because I'm a little bit confused. On the one hand, you're sort of saying that the new base case is this sort of 12% EBITA margin versus about like 10% when you IPO'd last year. On the other hand, you leave it open a little bit saying that, you know, it also depends on the added value you will deliver in the future. So if you just allow me to isolate it. If you look at the gross profit margin, which currently stands at 24.2%, which is up 200 basis points versus last year.

How much would you say of that is driven by the increased added value related to the current supply chain issues? How much of it is, do you think is more structural, which relates to, let's say, the added value you provide your customers in the labs and the technical advice?

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

Wanna answer it? Okay. Let me first put some context to that. It's obviously a very difficult question to answer. We have running a very diversified portfolio across over 60 countries, different 12 end segments of 55,000 customers and 2,500 principals. To dissect this 24.2%, in what is supply chain shortage, what's price, what's volume? I don't think that is such an easy task to do.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

I think it's not doable.

Thijs Bakker
CFO, Azelis

It's not doable. With a lot of analysis, in my view. I think we try to accommodate that with the comment that Joachim made, especially on the volume, and the price effect in the industrial chemical side. It's fair to say that obviously, our margin management and our end price levels that we expect is to maintain to a large level. This is specialty chemicals that we're active in.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Yeah. Henk, just to also frame it a bit, maybe there was a misunderstanding. The 12%, we're confident to stick to this 12% going forward and to add the expansion we promised you at time of IPO of 10-15 basis points also in the years to come. How much of that is by increased lateral value chain offering, how much of it is coming through innovation done in our labs, and how much of it is us focusing even more on bio-naturals and sustainable solutions is really, I think it's not possible to dissect this. How many transactions are we doing in a month? In a year?

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

You mean, the sales line items?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Yeah.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

I think it's an humongous task. Let's go back to the basics and the fundamentals. With us increasing our service offerings, the more service you get from somebody trying to service you, the more you're ready to pay, right? This has worked since eons, since many, many, many decades. It will work for us, and this is what we continue to push, and I just wanna convey the confidence we're having to sustain the current margin level we have reached and expand that on average by 10-15 basis points for the years to come.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

There's also, Henk, an M&A component in that.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Yeah.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

To communicate it, EUR 190 million and EUR 270 million based on 2021. Actually not stopping there, we're bringing our partners in, and we're increasing these margins. Therefore, we feel quite confident on the 10-15 basis points margin uplift from the current base.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Yeah. I fully appreciate the complexity and thank you for the color. The follow-up is on the acquisitions that you did in the first year-to-date. You did 10 deals. Like, the deal activity is still at a very high level. Do you see a similar, let's say, willingness in the market to sell businesses to you, now also that, you know, the whole sector is going through a period of strong profitability and strong sort of organic growth? Or do you see sort of targets becoming more demanding on valuations and perhaps on timing?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Well, first of all, thank you. It's a good question. What I should highlight is something I really did highlight also last year quite a bit, is that the processes we're pursuing, by and large, are not processes which are set up by a seller, where he invites a couple of people bidding for his business. These companies, the 10 we have for this year signed up, they were, I think 90% or even 100% were on exclusive negotiations we have started, not in January or in March this year, but some go back, which were started four years ago. There is a good pipeline of these things. It is true, if there would be a competitive process, obviously you have more people looking into a target.

There, if we would put our nose in, we would stay disciplined. The thing is, what we do, we have analyzed our lateral value chain, and we know exactly what type of products from which principals are in a specific geography missing. Which guides us towards people we approach and see whether we can buy their business. There is a good element of being proactive in the way we're conducting and fulfilling our M&A strategy. It's not like the opportunistic approach. Somebody sits there and decides, "I wanna sell my business." You have to win the trust of the owner of the business over a couple of meetings, and once you have won the trust that what he has built in his career, will be in safe hands, then you embark on a process.

In general, we have not seen for the targets we have signed and closed this year a marked uplift on the multiples. I think when you do your simulation later on, looking at the full year results, you will be able to extract exactly that.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Okay. Yeah. That's interesting. One follow-up also on the acquisition, the roll-up front is. Yeah, it seems like if you just take a step back, it seems like when you look at all the chemical distribution companies, there seems like there is a slight sort of more focus on consolidating the Asia-Pacific region. You also signed multiple acquisitions in Asia-Pacific this year and a significant amount last year. Would you agree that, let's say, the focus of the company to become a leading player in Asia-Pacific and, like, accelerate consolidation in that region, is it a bit of a, let's say, higher focus or a more focus for you than it was, let's say, one to three years ago?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

I wouldn't say one or two years ago. I would say maybe six or seven years ago. As indicated, usually what we have, what we bring to our pipeline starts 36 months, 48 months before we eventually announce a deal. The deals we've discussed we have announced now also in Asia, they were not initiated recently. They were initiated in 2017, 2018. It's clear we have the strategy since I think the first time we put it on paper was in 2016, where we said, "You know what? This is where the market is. This is where the population is younger than elsewhere in the world. This is where we need to grow stronger." We had a good presence with the KODA acquisition in 2015 in the Americas, which we since then enhanced our platform.

Asia clearly was a focus area and will continue to be a focus area going forward, right? We shouldn't kid ourselves with regard to size of markets. The specialty chemical needs and food ingredient needs in China today is bigger than what you have in North America or in the entire EU or Europe for that matter. This is a humongous market opportunity. China and India is coming up strongly too, with driven by growing middle class, on changes in demand of going from street vendors into ready-made food and so on and so forth. We see a lot of very individual growth drivers which kind of point us being active in these two countries, but also in Indonesia and others.

Vietnam, Thailand, these are all population very sizable, rather young, and with a lot of change in demographics and desires of what people buy. Yes, clearly a focus area. Then we move-

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Do you also, because in the past other players also mentioned in Asia Pacific, the market was not ready or to a large extent to outsource a lot of capacity to third-party distributors. As well, what I've heard in the past is that it was difficult to find, let's say, high quality acquisition targets. Do you see these two things now also rapidly improving?

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Let's put it that way. There are targets we look at and we don't touch or we look at a little bit closer and we walk. There are other targets where we feel they live up to the standards we're having with regard to, first of all, governance, and then also their technical savviness and how they serve the markets. Once we feel that governance absolutely and technical savviness is met, plus they represent similar principles or identical principles of the principles we work with, then we go after them. There are opportunities, as you have rightly pointed out. We did quite a few acquisitions in Asia last year. We did quite a few this year, and this will continue.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Okay. Thank you so much.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

One other thing on the M&A side. Thank you. I need to chip that in still. That we do see M&A as a major growth opportunity is also reflected in the fact that we appointed Laurent Nataf, he was a regional CEO of Asia Pacific, to head, to spearhead our M&A effort to foster, groom, grow the pipeline we're having on that side, and also to ensure that these targets then are seamlessly integrated into our platform.

Henk Veerman
Analyst, Kempen & Co

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Thibault Leneeuw of KBC Securities. Please go ahead.

Thibault Leneeuw
Equity Research Analyst, KBC Securities

Good afternoon. Could you give us a range or an indication of when you expect the lateral value chain to be in a rather mature stage? Thank you.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Wow. That is a very complex question. The lateral value chain obviously is defined per market segment per market. Let's zoom in, for example, on food and nutrition. There you would say, "Okay, how's our lateral value chain in the DACH region in bakery?" Right? There you have a certain level of completion. Let's say we have a 60% completion in bakery, but maybe on dairy we're only at 40%. You really have to go down to individual market segments and actually in there into sub-market segments, whether you talk decorative painting or whether you talk industrial painting or whether you talk skincare formulation or haircare formulation to really capture what is the percentage of the lateral value chain you're covering.

I'm afraid this is not an answer I'm able to give, and it's also something where it will take years and years and years and years. Then also recognize there is this move going on with regard to the offerings for the different industry we serve to be more sustainable. You get also new products coming into lateral value chains to complement or substitute existing portfolio. It's a pretty moving target. One point though is important. We always strive to get more level of completion in a given market segment, in a given lateral, in a given country. Because we clearly have seen in the past and numerous analysis that the more complete you are on the lateral value chain, the higher the margin is you get out of that business.

This will be a driver for years and years and years to come to complement our lateral value chain. Is that clear? Sorry that I couldn't give you a clear number, but.

Thibault Leneeuw
Equity Research Analyst, KBC Securities

No, I didn't expect a clear number. That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions. We have come to the end of this call. I will now hand over to Chief Executive Officer, Hans Joachim Müller, for his closing remarks.

Hans-Joachim Müller
CEO, Azelis

Well, thank you. Well, thank you all for listening in and spending the time with us this morning. We appreciate your interest in the firm. As I said, I'm very confident about the weeks and months ahead. Also when I look into all the levers we are playing with in the firm, where we are improving our processes, our efforts around sustainability, digital and innovation. I'm very, very confident that for many years to come, Azelis will be a company growing strongly and delivering to all stakeholders involved in the business. Thank you all. Stay safe and talk to you for the next update call of our Q3 results.

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