Hello, and welcome to the Cofinimmo full-year 2023 results call. My name is Laura, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to your host, Jean-Pierre Hanin, Chief Executive Officer, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you, Laura. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for being with us for the presentation of Cofinimmo 2023 full year results. My fellow colleagues are with me in this conference, you know all of them, Jean Kotarakos, CFO, Yeliz Bicici, CEO Offices and Real Estate Development, Sébastien Berden, CEO Healthcare, Françoise Roels, Secretary General. I propose to go rapidly through the presentation so that we have enough time to answer to your questions. Going to slide number 3, let's start obviously with the highlight of the past year. As you know, Cofinimmo's portfolio is in an accelerated transformation since 2018. Today, we have reached a new milestone in this 40 years history of Cofinimmo. Healthcare real estate now represent 75% of the group's portfolio. The 2023 results are solid.
The net result from core activities group share stands at EUR 241 million, an increase of 8.6% compared to the previous year. The net result, Cofinimmo group share, stands at -EUR 55 million. This is due to non-cash change in fair value and the impairment of the last part of our goodwill. The gross dividend for the 2023 financial year is confirmed at EUR 6.20 per share. In a quite volatile and challenging macroeconomic context, Cofinimmo reached last year the net zero investment objective that had been set for 2023. Let me remind you that in a market that was almost at standstill, we have divested for EUR 303 million, in line with or higher than the latest fair value.
We also invested EUR 302 million, excluding contribution in kind to an extra EUR 36 million, mainly in healthcare real estate. All of this had a neutral impact on debt-to-asset ratio. On the ESG side, we continue to be a green leader. In February, we had already been included in the BEL ESG Index by Euronext. In April, Cofinimmo has been listed as the only Belgian property company in the Financial Times 500 Europe Climate Leaders. We've also got several new ESG labels, BREEAM and CO2 Neutral Certification, as well as the Great Place to Work label. We've also shown resilient operational performance. Gross rental revenue are up 8.5% compared to 2022, and still 5.5% positive on a like-for-like basis.
The occupancy rate stays high at 98.5%, and the residual lease lengths stand at 13 years. Last but not least, we manage efficiently our financial structure. This means that our interest rate risk is fully hedged at year-end, as part of the long-term interest hedging policy. Our average cost of debt stays at impressive 1.4%. Our debt-to-asset ratio stand 43.8%, and our headroom on committed credit line is close to EUR 1 billion. The company profile and strategy is well known, so I would suggest that we skip slides 4-7, and I'm now going to slide number 8, which is also well known to you.
It illustrates the transformation of the portfolio toward healthcare, and you see that since 2018, healthcare real estate grew from 45%-75% your portfolio. In the same time, the office segment went from 38% to 18%, and the distribution network segment was reduced by more than half. Slide number nine, as you know, we own property in nine European countries, and at the end of last year, 50% of Cofinimmo's total portfolio is now located outside of Belgium. Coming back on slide number 10, on the net zero investment for 2023, which we successfully realized. On the right side bar chart, you see the total of realized investment amounting to EUR 303 million, mostly realized in the offices segment. This shows that the piece-by-piece selling strategy was the right one.
On the healthcare acquisition side, on the left bar chart, we have done EUR 302 million of investment, and mostly in the healthcare segment over the year 2023, in line with the outlook and also contributing significantly toward the achievement of our ESG goals. Slide 11 summarizes for you the ongoing portfolio transformation since 2018. Since 2005, net divestment in offices are at EUR 858 million. Investment in healthcare since 2005 overcomes the EUR 4.5 billion. In 2023, we have also completed the disposal of Cofinimur I in the distribution network portfolio. That means that we sold the MAAF insurance agency we had in France with a good end result. On Slide 12, you can witness our accelerated portfolio growth since 2018.
On average, 11% per year, while in the meantime, we kept the debt-to-asset ratio fairly stable. Slide 13, you see Cofinimmo's market cap was approximately EUR 2.3 billion in December, and is now around more or less the same level. The daily liquidity remains sound. On slides 15-19, you see that on sustainability, we reinforce our effort. Today, Cofinimur is seen as a very credible player by all our stakeholders. Let me give you some examples. Early 2023, Cofinimmo was included in a new BEL ESG index launched by Euronext, and on the ESG financing side, we have been added to the top SBTi 1.5-degree ESG bond issuer by Euronext. SBTi being an acronym, as you know, for Science Based Target Initiative.
On top of that, Cofinimur is part of the Financial Times list of 500 Europe Climate Leaders, and among the eight Belgian company that are part of that ranking, we are the only real estate company. On slide 17, our portfolio energy intensity was reduced to 142 kWh per square meter in 2023. This is quite remarkable and set us well on track to reach the 130 kWh per square meter on our Project 30³ , targeting 2030. Last but not least, on slide 18 and 19, you can see all our ESG benchmark and awards. We have also been granted several new BREEAM certificates, and in the HR field, we obtained a Great Place to Work certification for Belgium and Germany. Let's talk now about the property portfolio.
As you see on slide 21, the occupancy rates remain high at 98.5%. You also see on this slide the top ten list of our tenants. So let's move to slide 22, where you see the overall weighted average residual lease term remain remarkable at 13 years. It's even at 15 years for healthcare. Compared to 2022, I'm on slide number 23, years are only slightly expanding at 5.8 gross and 5.5 net. Overall, our average net yields stay well above 5%. I will now give the floor to Sébastien Berden, our CEO Healthcare. He will guide you through the highlights of the healthcare segment.
Thank you, Jean-Pierre, and good morning to all of you. As you know, our mission is to consolidate a leadership position in the European healthcare space, and we do this by growing our presence geographically, but also across healthcare segments. I'm sure you remember slide 25, which presents our geographical presence. As you can observe, our portfolio covers nine countries, but it also encompasses different type of healthcare assets. Although obviously, nursing homes and care homes represent the majority of our assets, we have developed, over the years, a significant presence in cure and hospital care, primary care, and we even own sport and wellness centers. An illustration of this strategy is our acquisition last year of an additional stake, giving us a controlling majority in the real estate vehicle of the French Red Cross.
This vehicle owns six hospitals in France, which are operated by the French Red Cross, and we therefore increased our presence in the cure segment last year. Despite the headwinds, we maintained our investment activity in high-quality healthcare real estate for approximately EUR 250 million. These investments arose mainly from the execution of our running development projects. The fair value of our healthcare portfolio amounts now to EUR 4.7 billion, and represents three-quarters of Cofinimmo's portfolio. We own 316 sites for almost 1.9 million square meters. Allow me now to present an analysis Cofinimur is working on for months, and which we hope will give you a better insight on how our operators are performing in the field.
As many of you recall, Cofinimmo took care to collect data about the operations in its buildings since the very first acquisition in the healthcare market. Healthcare operators share key performance indicators with us, like occupancy rates, which are then consolidated and compiled into comprehensive statistics. Moreover, we track market data when and wherever available. We have been working for months on producing a synthetic overview of these indicators, and the result is presented in the table you see on slide 27.... In this table, the first block presents the market data. This is data that reflects how the whole market is performing in each country and comes from various sources, including public authorities, sector and parastatal organization, broker reports, and internal business intelligence. Bringing this data together in a harmonized and comprehensive and coherent statistic has been a hefty task.
To illustrate this point, we highlight that authorities across Europe don't always use the same methods to monitor occupancy. Moreover, for Germany, for instance, Yeliz was not able to retrieve a statistic every year, and for Italy, we were not able to find any comprehensive statistic. The second block of the table, the Cofinimmo relevant portfolio, represents the occupancy rates we compiled for our portfolio. Data from operators, input from specialist healthcare consultants, and observations made by Cofinimmo on the field are compiled throughout the year. This data is then validated during the summer of the following year. Keep in mind, therefore, that the data presented for 2023 is still a preliminary estimate that will be confirmed during the summer. Last block, finally, gives you an insight on the quality of the figures provided.
The underlying occupancy rate apply to the majority of care and cure centers, which accounted for nearly 95% of Cofinimmo's healthcare properties at the end of 2022. For these relevant assets, or for the relevant assets in the countries and operators for which Cofinimmo was able to collect and use the data, you can see that the underlying occupancy rates reached 84% or more at the end of 2022. This figure represents a significant improvement compared to 2021 level, which was still partly affected by COVID-19. For 2023, Cofinimmo expects most countries to be above 90%, with likely Germany still being below this level. Cofinimmo would like to take this opportunity to thank again its operators for their continued efforts over the last few years, which have been often challenging.
We insist on the fact that reporting, that their reporting efforts would be simplified if all owners harmonize their reporting requirements. Cofinimur intends to work in this direction in order to establish an industry standard. Slide 28 and 30 present a recap of all acquisitions we made in 2023 and some post-balance sheet events of nearly 2024. I suggest we don't go through all of them, but would like to highlight slide 31, in which we also highlight the divestments that we realized in 2023. We sold for nearly or for more than EUR 14 million over the course of 2023, and we did this at favorable conditions. So you see that we also keep a close eye on our existing healthcare portfolio and that we carry out asset rotation in this segment, too.
It is now time to hand over to my colleague, Yeliz Bicici, who will highlight some other achievements.
Thank you, Sébastien, and hello, everyone. We can now move on to slide 33 for the breakdown of our distribution networks, consisting almost only of the Pubstone portfolio. This segment represents, at end of December 2023, a fair value of approximately EUR 500 million, which covers 309,000 square meters and counts approximately 850 sites, almost exclusively from Pubstone. For this portfolio, I remind you that we have a long-term contract with AB InBev, both in Belgium as in the Netherlands. I'm on slide 34 now. In Q4 2023, we completed the divestment of the historic portfolio, Cofinimur I, composed of the insurance agencies of French insurer, MAAF. This means that in a little bit more than two years, we sold 266 assets, representing a total fair value of approximately EUR 110 million.
Quite a big achievement. Let's now talk about the office segment as of Slide 36. The fair value of the office segment represents EUR 1.1 billion at end 2023, consisting of 41 sites for approximately 330,000 square meters. On Slide 37, you can see on the map and the bar chart that our aim is to create value through capital recycling. We keep the largest footprint within the CBD, which accounts for 76% of Cofinimmo offices portfolio in Brussels. On Slide 38, you see the deal summary of 2023 in chronological order. Last year, we have been speeding up the divestments in the decentralized and periphery regions, as well as in the CBD for some older buildings that we divested for ESG reasons.
In Q4 2023, we closed four divestments, Stationsstraat in Mechelen, Park Hill in periphery, Hermann-Debroux 44, and Evergreen in the decentralized area. I will now hand over to Jean Kotarakos, our CFO, to guide you through the financial results.
Thank you, Yeliz Bicici, and good morning, everyone.
F or the overall portfolio, we can see on slide 40 that the gross rental revenues grew 8.5% year-on-year. This represents a like-for-like rental growth of 5.5%, mainly driven by indexation. On slide 41, we see that the net result from productivity, the EPRA earnings, reached EUR 241 million, higher than the outlook, being the initial budget, and 8% above the prior year. This gives us an EPRA EPS of 7.07 EUR per share, higher than the outlook and also higher than the latest guidance. This is mainly due to the income, to the tax income recorded in Q4, following the confirmation of the FBI regime in the Netherlands.
The EPRA EPS of EUR 7.07 per share includes the effects of divestments and capital increases totaling EUR 0.72 per share. Let's have a look at the other items that bring us to the IFRS net result on slide 42. The IFRS net result amounts to -EUR 55 million, compared to +EUR 483 million of last year. This change is due to the fact that the increase in the net result from property group share is lower than the decrease in the fair value of investment properties and ending and hedging instruments, sorry, which are non-cash elements. Also, the net result group share, per share at end of 2023, takes into account the issue of shares in 2022 and 2023. Let's now have a closer look at the result on the portfolio.
It amounts to -EUR 270 million versus +EUR 44 million in 2022. This includes mainly the following: firstly, the item changes in the fair value of investment properties, which is negative at end of 2023. It was minus EUR 182 million versus +EUR 77 million in 2022. Without the initial effect from the changes in the scope, the changes in the fair value of investment properties stand at -2.7% over the 2023 financial year.
This comes from, firstly, a -2.2% change in healthcare real estate, mainly, mainly due to negative revaluations in Germany, Belgium, and Spain, in line with changing market conditions, tempered by positive revaluation in France, resulting from the increase in the weighted average residual lease length in that country from 4 to 8 years. We have +0.3% in distribution networks, combined with a 5.8% decrease in value in the office segment, representing 18% of the consolidated portfolio. This is in line with changes in market conditions in each of the sub-segments in which the group is active. That was the first part.
Secondly, the item, other result on the portfolio, is -EUR 25 million at end of 2023, compared to -EUR 40 million at the end of 2022, and comprises, in particular, the effect of changes in the scope, difference taxes, and the impairment on the last part of goodwill. So there is no goodwill anymore, after year end 2023. On page 43, you will see the balance sheet structure. The balance of the investment and investment during the year 2023 is reflected in the broad stability of the total balance sheet. The total assets stand at EUR 6.7 billion. Almost 93% of it are investment properties at fair value, financed by EUR 3.6 billion of equity and EUR 2.9 billion of financial and non-financial debts.
On slide 44, we analyze the decrease of the debt-to-asset ratio between 2022, at that time it was 45.6%, and at end of December of 2023, which is forty-three point eight percent. Let me explain this. On the one hand, the investments, the payment of the dividend, the mark-to-market of the properties, the consolidation of our stake in La Croix-Rouge française, so the French Red Cross, and other balance sheet items contributed to an increase of 7% of the debt-to-asset ratio. On the other hand, the divestment, the result from activities, the contribution in kind, the optional dividend, and the capital increase through ABB, performed in October of 2023, helped us to reduce our debt-to-asset ratio by almost 10%.
This allowed us to end the year south of 45%, which we consider as a guiding light at Cofinimmo. On slide 45, you can see that the EPRA NAV is somewhere between . . . no, that the NAV is somewhere between 98 and 107 EUR per share, which is somewhat lower compared to 2022. I say somewhere because, as you know, we have several kind of NAV, and so depending on the item you are interested on, the value is different. I can comment here on the evolution of the IFRS NAV between 2022 and 2023, where it stood at 110.74 EUR per share versus 98.61 EUR per share today. Meaning, in fact, that it decreased by approximately 12 EUR. So if we summarize, the decrease of 12 EUR is easy.
Firstly, the deduction of the dividend for -EUR 6 per share. Then we have the impact of the capital increases that we carried out in 2023 for -EUR 4 per share, and then the accumulation of the result for the period, -EUR 2 per share rounded, and that makes the -EUR 12 per share. We can now have a look at the financial resources on slide 47, but you will see that we raised EUR 247 million of equity, as said earlier. On the debt capital markets, nothing new since January 2022, when we issued with success a second sustainable benchmark bond of EUR 500 million at conditions one can only dream of today.
Important, important here to note that our S&P credit rating of BBB with stable outlook was confirmed in March 2023, with the report reached in May, and then updated once again in October. As you can see on slide 49, we concluded several important financing operations throughout the year. I can tell you that we did this at credit spreads comparable to those of the second half of 2022. And as what the financing of 2024 is concerned, two loans totaling EUR 155 million are maturing in April and December. We will hold them until maturity, as they were contracted at fixed rate. On slide 50, we see that Cofinimmo has EUR 2.5 billion in sustainable financing under the form of several instruments, including a sustainable commercial paper program.
Slide 51 gives you the highlights about our ongoing access to diversified funding sources, among other relations with more than 20 leading banks. The average debt maturity amount of 4 years, that is shown on page 52. At the same time, the average cost of debt has only slightly increased at 1.4% in 2023 versus 1.2% at end of 2022. Based on the information currently available for the budget 2024, we expect our cost of debt to slightly increase to approximately 1.5%, at the end of 2024. You can see on slide 53, that, as I said earlier, we still have EUR 155 million maturing in 2024, but they will stay there until their maturity. Besides that, our debt maturities are well spread.
The headroom on the committed credit lines for Cofinimmo to finance its activity is about EUR 1 billion at year-end. On slide 54, regarding the hedging, the group's current debt is fully hedged at the end of 2023. Between the years 2024 and 2027, the hedging ratio changes from 99% to 83%, with a weighted average maturity of five years, what puts us in a comfortable situation in the current interest rates environment. I now hand over to Jean-Pierre for the highlights on our 2024 outlook.
Thank you, Jean, for this very clear explanation. So I am on slide 56, where you will find a breakdown of the investment budget for this year. Let's take first the divestment side on the right-hand side of the slide. Based on the achievement made in 2023, we foresee again, an ambitious target of EUR 270 million of divestment. Now, for the investment side, left on the slide, we estimate EUR 220 million of investment, most of it which is related to healthcare project development. This implies that the net investment based on this budget is about EUR 50 million. It will be almost neutral on the debt-to-asset ratio based on this assumption. Now we can move directly to the slide 58.
With a brief outlook for 2024, as you can see on this slide, we aim for a net result from core activities at EUR 6.40 per share. This figure takes into account the pro rata temporary effect of the capital increase carried out in 2023, for approximately EUR 0.5 per share, but also the divestment carried out in 2023, and budgeted in 2024 for approximately EUR 0.4 per share. For your convenience, we have also added a line showing the expected denominator for the computation of the 2024 EPS. And as said earlier, we expect the debt-to-asset ratio to stay roughly at the same level, around 44%.
This outlook would allow the distribution of a gross dividend for the 2024 financial year, payable in 2025, of EUR 6.2 per share, subject to the net result from core activities, quote, "per share," and the evolution of the debt-to-asset ratio. So in almost 30 minutes, we made it to give you enough time. Thank you for your attention, and please feel free to raise your question.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. We'll now take our first question from Frédéric Renard with Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Can you hear me?
Yes. Hello, Frédéric.
Hello, Jean-Pierre. Two questions on my side. Maybe well, first, thank you for the data you provided on the underlying occupancy rate among operators. I think it's very interesting pieces of data. Maybe first question would be on the indexation and for 2024, what are you looking at this year, and how are the discussions ongoing with your operator? That's the first question.
On the indexation for 2024, Jean, we refer probably to-
Yeah. But as usual, now, Frédéric, we take the latest information available. So if we look at the budget, we can say that we have an average indexation of 2% for the top line. And then the figure on the top line is given in the press release, and so you have the final figure.
At the moment-
Sorry?
You don't see any issue at the moment passing this inflation with your-
Well, well, you know, the indexation topic is of course much lower than it was a year ago, because indexation, as you know, is lower. In Germany, well, you remember there is a threshold, you need to reach 10%, but once you reach it, you have again to wait that you reach it again. So, I think, as you know, it took several operator by surprise. They had forgotten about this threshold, but now they are, they know again that they can wait before the next indexation. So, you know, yeah.
It also includes the latest data available, for example, the actual indexation of January, February, that are known and that are quite lower than last year.
Yeah.
That is all that is included in the 2%.
Thank you. Then, a second question maybe on the dividend. If I look at your projected disposal for this year, EUR 270 million, which is probably a higher yield than the average of the portfolio. And for 2025, you will probably not have any more the effect of the FBI statute, which also means we'll be paying a bit more taxes. So bottom line, I mean, probably in 2025, you will have to cut the dividend. So why didn't you choose to cut it already now, with a clean message that actually you are in a changing phase, and then we reset it to more sustainable level?
Yes. Well, it's an interesting question, and you can imagine that we have given some thoughts on the DPS because of the high payout. But we have also a pipeline of projects and, you know, based on the, I would say, the consensus on the market today, that the central bank should start to cut interest rate by hopefully around June this year. It means that, you know, growth story could start again in 2025. That's at least the base case.
So basically, you know, the connection between new projects in the pipeline, divestment, which, you know, we set at EUR 270 million, but again, if the markets become more liquid, look at if we put together Pubstone and the office, it represents EUR 1.5 billion. So, all of this means that the timing is still quite uncertain, and that's why, you know, looking too affirmative on one scenario versus the other, we preferred basically the communication that we have issued this morning, and that the conjunction of element will enable us to continue to stabilize the company.
We see, you know, in the framework of our transformation, we see 2024 a year of stabilization. So we don't see a lot of opportunities coming in terms of acquisition. You know, there are not many forced sellers in the market. There are sellers, we all know that there are operators that basically would like to sell assets, but they don't have to do it specifically in 2024. Most of them have until 2026 to basically do it progressively. And, we have not raised dry powder, as you know, so I'm not forced to say that there are opportunities up there. I don't have to do a shift of country, neither.
So for us, we continue to have our tool of divestment as a priority. We have our committed pipeline that we want to manage actively, and basically, you know, so far, I think we have walked the talk, and that's the way we would like to continue. Sorry to maybe be a bit lengthy, but I think it's an important topic.
Thank you, Jean-Pierre. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Veronique Meertens, with Van Lanschot Kempen. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Good morning, all. Hello, good morning. Good, thank you for the presentation. For me, a question on Germany. First of all, thanks for providing the data on the occupancy levels, but wondering if there are still some discussions ongoing. I saw in the press release that you mentioned that indexation for healthcare was 6.4%, and in the end, the like-for-like for healthcare was 4.8%. So I was wondering, is it coming from Germany, or what explains that difference? And is there still an impact to expect from some relettings that had to be done in Germany?
So the first part of the question is quite easy. Yes, as it was in the previous quarter, the difference is mainly due to Germany, indeed. Yeah. And, you know, the situation in Germany, today, and, the financing part is catching up. So, you know, the main stress in Germany seems to come from staff. A serious shortage of staff, which basically also allow the, as you probably know, to give instruction to limit the capacity of a nursing home if all the staff is not present. And as you can imagine, with all the noise in Europe about nursing home during the last year, the regional authorities are quite vigilant.
So, the staff issue is still quite acute in Germany. As I said earlier, indexation, well, once you reach the 10%, you have peace for a while, and since indexation right now, inflation is quite low, at least on that topic, it's, you know, on the safe side.
Okay, clear. Thank you. So just to for your portfolio itself, there's currently no discussions ongoing, or tenants that still need to be replaced?
We have no knowledge, as we speak, of operators that would be on imminent bankruptcies or, you know, the like.
Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you, and we'll now take our next question from Francesca Ferragina with ING. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. And first of all, compliment for the efforts on the, and the results obtained on disposals. I have a question on disposal. Will the disposals that you target for 2024 will be mainly related to the office portfolio, or are you open also to sell certain healthcare assets? And how do you feel is the mood among buyers at the moment for these assets? And the second question is still on Germany. I see overall limited write-off in the portfolio, with the exception of Germany. What are your expectations going forward? Thank you.
So, on the disposal, you know, Cofinimmo has a management policy of having an asset rotation in all segments. Now, considering the fact that we are also transforming ourselves, the segment where we have the highest asset rotation is offices, as the figure demonstrates clearly. We have already disposed some healthcare assets in 2023. I know that many people are reluctant to divest assets in the core segment, because they are scared to death that they would get a low price that would have a spillover effect on the rest of the portfolio. I must say we are not in that part, in that category, all divestments are based on different criteria.
And of course, you know, probably, one very important one is the management of our debt-to-asset ratio, meaning that, there is no taboo in all, divestment. You know, buying and selling is our core competence, and of course, we know what, we are doing it, and we know where to do it. So there will be, you know, a mix of, several segments, this year, and we are not saying, "Look, you know, out of the EUR 270 million, 80% should be offices and 20% should be healthcare." It's basically based on a pure, management policy. We have a long-term program of acquisition and divestment, and sometimes we accelerate a bit, the program. And also, we are quite disciplined about, you know, what we want to get.
So, the most important is not being a forced seller, and we are not, and I think everybody understood it on the market, and that's why we were able to catch more than decent value in the disposal so far. As far as basically Germany and the outlook, well, you know, the topic in Germany is a hot topic, not only in Germany, but I think they are well ahead. And I think something I have already gave some hints in the past, the future of Germany is, for me, new build and healthcare campus, meaning a Pflegeheim, a nursing home, which is surrounded by assisted living. Why?
Because assisted living are not regulated, so you don't have to have a minimum number of staff during the night, during the day, per square meter, per room or per number of residents, you know, all type of regulation that exist. And basically, this is practically the only way to catch the shortage of staff, which is there. And, you know, the shortage of staff is not only in healthcare, in many other industry. So it's only by coming with innovative concept that are coping with the staff and, I mean by that, qualified nursing home nurses, sorry, then you can go for it.
Which means that it will go progressively, because of course, you know, we are not in a good time to build new asset because construction costs are still, you know, a bit high. There was the delay over the last year, so it will go progressively up, but not overnight.
That's fine. Thank you.
Thank you, and we'll now take our next question from Steven De Meester with ABN AMRO. Please go ahead. Steven, would you like to check on your mute button, please?
I hope you can hear me now.
Not very.
Hi.
So if you can speak loudly in the mic-
Yes.
- because we barely hear you.
Okay. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. First is on yields. Could you please let me know what, in your view, would be attractive net yields for prime nursing home assets in your top five countries? So Belgium, Germany, France, Netherlands and Spain, if you would invest today. That's the first question.
Well, you know, considering the level of our stock, we are not a buyer today of new nursing home. And considering also the volatility of financing and, you know, the fact that we all expect to have central bank decreasing the interest rates as of mid-year, I don't think this is the best time to buy right now. So, I cannot give you a precise answer because it's not a question that is vivid in our mind, let me put it this way.
Okay, very clear. Then, I also have a question on the balance sheet. Would you be willing to cross that 45% debt ratio temporary, let's say, to 47%, in case you see more devaluations? And second to that, could you elaborate on what actions we can expect in a negative scenario, if we would see more devaluations, if it would cross your favorite debt ratio?
Yeah.
Yeah, what kind of actions would we see?
So, you know, our main tool is clearly, as I said, divestment, to basically manage our debt-to-asset ratio. Last year, it was pretty tough because, you know, as we said, I think the presentation, the market was on standstill, so the market was dead, let me put it this way. This year, it's way... You know, it's still too early, but, the message we get from, many brokers is that they were trying last year to motivate some, funds and, and investors to buy, and basically, those guys were even not returning the call of brokers.
Since beginning of January, what we hear from brokers is that they now are speaking with investors that are willing again to review files and look at situation, which give a hint that basically the situation in terms of liquidity would be better this year than last year, which of course for us would be quite interesting. In terms of well, yield evaluation, we already took and we have not hesitated to already took some devaluation last year.
And let me remind also, because, you know, when I open my computer in the morning and I see reports about companies, REIT companies in Germany, France, UK, Netherlands, that are announcing, year-on-year devaluation of, you know, two digit, I'm thinking in my mind, "Gee, you know, I hope that people remember that the Brussels market, which was always considered as a boring market, in terms of yield, has nothing to be compared to the market, in London, Amsterdam, Hamburg or Paris," where, as you will remember, yield have reached a level that, were extremely low.
And, you know, that's why also, I think, some people were not very enthusiastic about our offices portfolio because we, we, had, and we still have some assets which were conservatively valued, meaning at high yield, and which explain also then, you know, when we, we sell this high-yield asset, it can also, absorb the shock on some, yield correction that you are seeing, going from 44%-47%, for us, you know, that's, a bigger long shot. Don't forget that the office, scenario, the office portfolio, sorry, amounts to EUR 1.1 billion out of the total portfolio.
So, not saying that healthcare, we will not see some again, some correction, but as I said, our base case is basically central bank move on interest rate mid-year, which of course would mean that there should be a landing on the valuation this year. So, that's why basically the divestment machine should come up as key, the first and the preferred tool to manage it.
Okay, clear. Maybe last follow-up is do you also consider acquisitions in kind like you did last year? Is that something relevant for 2024?
Well, I think, you know, given the current level of our stock, I would say not our capacity for the time being.
Okay, that is clear. Thank you so much.
Thank you, and we'll now take our next question from Amal with Degroof Petercam. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Do you hear me?
Yes. Hello, how are you?
Hello. Fine, thank you. Thank you for the presentation, and thank you again for all the disclosure on the occupancy in your healthcare portfolio. That's a very important step, I think, to rebuild the confidence on this asset class and, I don't underestimate the amount of work it has required. So thank you. I have a few questions on the negative reversion on the portfolio. You have minus 0.4% on regular negotiations. I know that obviously this is only a small part of your portfolio, but just can you share with us the level of negative reversion that you still hold in this portfolio?
Well, you know, it happens that, of course, when you have some renegotiation, but you don't have to read this negative reversion as a rule of thumb that you can use as a benchmark. It's basically a lot of very small discussions, you know, that we have many, many different sites. So, it's not the result of a big negotiation with one big operator. It's the accumulation of tiny adjustments here and there, and not I would say... we are not reading it as a benchmark, which basically announce something for the rest of the portfolio or for the future. It's more case by case ad hoc adjustment.
Okay. Okay, so not something structural on the portfolio?
No, no. No, no.
Okay.
There are always been some, when you look at the past, you know, in, in certain instances, but it's, it's purely locally, to be explained and not as a horizontal trend.
Okay, and in the context of strong indexation recently, it's not something that has been increasing in your portfolio, or-
No, it's
Even the fact that you are more exposed to seeing it-
No.
Perhaps you managed to,
No, because we don't have a lot of renewal that are coming in this period and, no, it's you know, the, the indexation was all over the portfolio. So, it's, it's not something you can directly link.
Okay. Okay, very clear. Another question on the portfolio revaluation, especially on the UK. I'm a bit puzzled because I, if I'm correct, it, the revaluation was positive as of, nine months, and it turned negative end of the year. Is there anything specific there, or?
Then you are catching us. Let me. Can you say it again?
Okay. Oh, yeah.
When was it positive, and it become negative?
Nine months.
The end of September was positive, is that what you are saying?
Yeah. Yes. Am I correct?
Okay.
Or could I check with the-
U.K., yes, in U.K. Yes.
Okay. But that's a mix of indexation, the timing of indexation and the exchange rates also. If you look-
Ah.
UK specifically.
Ah, okay.
Yeah.
Okay. Okay.
Okay.
Very clear.
Sorry, but we did not hear the U.K. part of the question. So okay, thank you.
Okay, perfect. Next question on the Scrip dividend. Perhaps it's too early on, but do you intend to propose a Scrip dividend for 2024?
You know, we... I will answer the same way I answer every year, is that the opportunity to do it, of course, depends of several factors, including the level of the stock. And you, and we decided really on a very transparent basis, you know, a few days before the announcement, based on the latest information. So it's not something which is automatic, clearly not.
Mm-hmm.
I don't think that it's something which is budgeted neither. So it's always something which has to be assessed based on all the other information that are prevailing at that time, i.e., in May.
Okay. Okay, very clear. I totally hear that you are very conservative in terms of acquisitions, but just to come back on the development pipeline. So if I recall, last call, you mentioned that there was not a lot of room for contract with negotiation with the developers, but are the rents indexed for the project ongoing?
...Well, you know, some of them, it's really again, a case by case. The start of the indexation may depend from one project to the other. So, sometimes it starts earlier than later, but, you know, it's part of the negotiation whether it's a forward funding or not, and all of this is taken, all the economic elements, including the funding, the financing of the project, are mixed together, basically, to decide. So it's a fixed price, which is for us, especially through the storm of last year and still a bit this year, which is the most important part. And then the rent is adjusted if, you know, costs appear to be higher and if, of course, the effort rate allow for an adjustment.
That's basically the framework we follow for our pipeline.
Okay. Then, I must then conclude that the yield on cost on your development pipeline has not moved, and we are still around 5.5%?
Yes. 5, yes.
Yes, 5. Okay. Thank you. That is all my side. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Thank you. Thank you. If you find that your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. We'll now move on to our next question from Lynn Hautekeete with KBC Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for the presentation. I have three questions. First of all, I'd like to get some flavor on the CBD office rental market. So I know that you've delivered the Montoyer 10 building in the first quarter, and I was wondering how the ramp up is going of the leases and stands?
The rent is going, actually is increasing in Brussels. It's been an excellent year for that. Just a little reminder, there are not really a lot of Grade A buildings in Brussels CBD, which is maybe different compared to other capitals. And we actually, you know, last year the prime rent, or for several years, the prime rent was around EUR 340 per sq m in Brussels, and we have been able to sign a lease for EUR 375 per sq m, which is quite a big increase in terms of prime rent.
Did it answer your question?
Great, thank you. Yes. Yes, I've seen that the lease was signed with JLL. So-
Yeah.
Yes, absolutely.
I think you're referring to that one.
Yes.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay. And then, the second question is on the fair value corrections again. I saw that the fair value corrections accelerated in the fourth quarter. Again, UK has been answered, but I'm looking more at Spain. Spain also accelerated. Has that anything to do with the exposure to DomusVi? DomusVi.
No, no, not at all. Not at all. Basically, you know, we have been quite conservative in Q4, not to have, you know, endless discussion and, and, and, and risks to basically make the adjustment, where necessary. You remember that, in Spain, we have also a lot of new buildings, and it's clear that, new buildings, new build in the past have been, more expensive than buying, all the standing assets. And of course, with the current environment, you have to do correction here and there, but there is no... There is, you know, more a, a market, correction view on that, and, and no specific link, to, an operator.
Okay. So there are no negotiations with DomusVi at the moment on rent?
No, you know, there are always discussion about Synota aspect with all operators. What I'm saying is that we are not downgrading the valuation of our DomusVi assets across the board. That's certainly not the case.
Great, perfect. And then the last one, regarding the outlook of 6.4, is there any one-offs in that outlook, related to the FBI or any other one-offs that we need to take into consideration?
So there is no one-off FBI, because the one-off FBI has already been taken into account. Just in 2024, where we have the FBI status, and that's it. There is usually no tax in the Netherlands, and that's it.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you. That answers all.
Thank you. You're welcome.
Thank you, and we'll now take our next question from Eduardo Gill with Green Street. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Few questions from me, if I may. The first one is on your, your North Rhine-Westphalia development project. Obviously, we know about the, the challenges in hiring staff in Germany, and I just wanted to get a sense of: How do you see that development stabilizing over the medium term? So when, when do you think you're gonna reach 90-95% occupancy in the face of, you know, low staff-to-resident ratios and, and cost increases?
Yeah. Well, you know, you remember that I said a few minutes ago that we see the future in Germany going for healthcare campuses, which is basically nursing home with daycare centers, assisted living around, and so on. This is exactly what or, you know, Tulip, this is the name we call for all of this project here. Is basically so there is no question about you know, are we building a old-fashioned healthcare asset on the contrary. And when we see the ramp up in the project that are already being delivered, the operator, Schönes Leben Group, are telling us that they are ahead of the business plan because of this combination of assisted living and Pflegeheim.
There is less personal issue in this project, that's why we consider, you know, to be the right one. In NRW, Westphalia, it's characterized also by high subsidies, and this is the reason basically why we have picked up this project. The project still benefits from high subsidies, which of course, made, make the financing more appropriate.
Understood. That's very helpful. Second question for me is, obviously, the challenges at Clariane are well documented in the media. You have a large exposure to Clariane. How do you expect that story to unfold and potentially impact your rents? And I'm thinking specifically of France, which could be a challenged market, in terms of-
Yeah.
-fundamentals.
Well, you know, Clariane has announced, off the top of my head because I, my information dates back when they announced it, I think a capital increase of EUR 300 million. EUR 200 million is backed already by Crédit Agricole, if I remember correctly. My expectation is that Crédit Agricole or someone else getting a call from Macron will have to do it, because, you know, it's probably the most efficient way to expedite the matter. So, the sale of the Belgian and Netherlands perimeter, the Dutch perimeter is, you know, something which is... makes sense from their standpoint.
If they need liquidity, this is probably the most liquid assets they have in their portfolio based on history, because basically they have acquired this perimeter as a standalone perimeter with, I must say, a very solid management that is used also to, I would say, changing of shareholder. The rumor on the market is that the mandate to an investment bank has just been signed. So, it's a process that will probably take a while. You know, what we note is basically that if they would have to sell this portfolio to another investor, basically the concentration that we have today on Clariane would drop from around 15% to around 8%.
Mm-hmm.
which we view as a, you know, in terms of diversification or of operator base, as, you know, an interesting news, let me put it this way. So for the rest of-
Understood.
You know that the French government is behind these operators, so I think Clariane had to make this refinancing. You know, I have no info on how it did and why it appeared like this, but it was on the radar screen of everybody that they had this refinancing issue in 2023.
Yeah. Understood. The covenant quality increases, but the margins may drop. So, you know, that's what we're seeing with Orpea, and it feels like this could happen with Clariane as well.
Well, you know, we have long-term rent, so. And, you know, Clariane, these people are responsible people, so they will not sell it to an aggressive investor. And they know that they cannot ask, you know, in the current environment, a crazy price neither. So, I'm, you know, we are more looking for long-term investors in this, for this portfolio.
Understood. Thank you. My last question is on the office portfolio and the potential divestments. Now, your portfolio in Brussels is mostly CBD. It's a market we think is strong fundamentally. Do you think there could be buyers for not just piecemeal, but the entirety of it or a large chunk, you know, EUR hundreds of millions in one go for Brussels-
Yeah
... office at this stage?
Well, last year there were none, so that was at least quite clear. We see that more for the second half of 2024. Again, I think, you know, the fundamental of the market are, you know, well-known and quite resilient. But you need to have for, you know... And I think, I don't think it's linked to offices, but for sales above EUR 70-100 million, you need to have a clear financing environment.... So to have pure equity investor that would basically buy the full chunk with, you know, mostly equity, given the size of it, I think, you know, they would need to put a, a charge of financing in there, and, then it would come.
I would say, hopefully, we could start to have this kind of discussion during the second semester, which means that it's only starting September, because nothing is happening during the summer. You know that when you talk about CBD, as far as Cofinimur is concerned, we are talking about the area of the Leopold Square, which is, of course, the prime area of the CBD, because in Brussels, it might be small, but you might have a bit of mixed environment, even in the CBD.
Understood. Maybe just a quick follow-on on that. Just the margin for office-backed real estate, what are you seeing? You know, we're talking 250 basis points spread, or?
You, you mean yield?
Yeah, for ticket financings, for an office property.
Financing for a buyer, that frankly speaking, I have no clue because, you know, most of our buyer last year were equity finance. So, and, you know, we had basically to find these buyers. So, there are not a lot who basically have put external financing. Most of them started with equity, and they are maybe in the process of refinancing, which could be the case, but I have really no, no, I don't have any hint on that. I'm just thinking quickly, but no, no, I don't have the answer.
No worries. Thank you so much.
Thank you, and we'll now take our last question from Céline Soo-Huynh at Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, Jean-Pierre. I've got two questions. I'm gonna take them one by one, if you don't mind. The first one is about your strategy this year. So you used to guide to a debt-neutral investment strategy, and now you're kind of saying, "We're going to be net investor this year." Your leverage ratio has not changed that much from last year, so, I was wondering what makes you so confident to go back to being a net investor this year?
Well, you know, I don't know whether confident is the right word. I think we are basically, you know, relying on our track record. We are listening to, basically, the current status, and we are managing everything, even our pipeline, quite actively. So, if we could sell more in 2024, because the second half appear to be a more favorable environment, we will sell more. So, you know, don't misinterpret the fact that last year we had 302 versus 303. You know, it's a bit, you know, was not foreseen to be that precise.
It has been a tough environment, and I must say, you know, we have worked crazy until the 29th of December to have the last closing. But again, we give us a target that we consider, like last year, stretched in the current state of the environment, but if we can sell more, we sell more.
Okay. Okay, that sounds fair. Then my second question is about the dividend. I can't help but notice that's the first time you're giving a dividend guidance conditionally. So I'm wondering if you're implying an upside or a downside to this guidance?
Well, you know, what I just said about if we can sell more, we would sell more. I think the chance as we speak, on the 23 of February, the chance of selling more, we don't see it today, but, again, a lot could change, in June, and, the question was raised by one of your colleague, what about if you find someone that is interested in much larger, package, of your offices, portfolio, well above EUR 100 million, several hundred million EUR, shall you consider it? Yes, the answer, is yes. So, you know, I think it's fair to say that nobody knows how 2024 will be.
Okay.
But, um-
Sorry.
Yeah?
Sorry, go ahead.
No, no.
No, I was just wondering because, like, from what I understand, from what you're saying, is that if you sell more this year, there is a possibility for you to cut that dividend guidance. So is that, is that correct?
Yes, because, you know, look, there is a high payout and, clearly, you know, I think what the market is asking us is to divest, to manage our, you know, debt-to-asset ratio, but also as part of the transformation of the company. But, again, the, the magnitude of investment... The, the reason why we have not done it last year, because we had a bit more spread between the EPS and DPS, but also last year, we knew that the divestment market was dead. Because, remember, there was no hope that, central bank would decrease interest and so on. The environment seems to be quite different this year, so, yes, this could be the case.
... Okay. Well, then, sorry, following up on that, but, and that's going back to Frédéric's question earlier, why didn't you cut the dividend in the first place?
Because, you know, the, the magnitude of the investment, is, unknown. And don't forget, we have EUR 1.5 billion of, you know, non-healthcare assets. It's a lot, and whether this basically could be monetized in one, two, three, in one, two, three, four, five years, it's, it's unknown. So we need, a bit more clarity. I, I don't expect a lot of, this year again, so I think it's, you know, more, for after this year. But, we want to be-- you know, we have always been extremely transparent and, and so on. And sometimes, you know, when we see the discussion we have, people seems to forget that, when you sell, you're also selling rents. So,
Yeah.
It's, you know, a quick reminder, nothing more.
Okay. Sorry, can I ask a last question, or is that too much?
Of course.
Yeah, I was just wondering, other than central banks cutting base rates, what would make you go back to some kind of growth story going forward?
Well, you know, I think that, first, central bank will do that progressively, so, we are not talking about, overnight. And, you know, what make will put us back on the acquisition, is when we can create value again. It's, it's very simple. Now, we, we are protected by the financing cost, as Jean explained quite clearly, that's seen for several years. For the existing portfolio, we are protected. For the new one, then we will have to see what are the, the financing condition once, you know, the, the central bank will start, this move. But, you know, that's. I think that's for all players, and of course, you know, this also is, is linked with, with, the evolution, of our stock price.
We see the volatility when the inflation in the U.S. is a bit worse than the expectation.
Mm-hmm.
You see the swing in one day, you know, stock price and when the opposite happen. So, it's very difficult, you know, to understand.
Okay. Thank you, thank you so much.
You're welcome.
Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Jean-Pierre for closing remarks. Thank you.
Well, thank you for your attention. I appreciate that it was a lot of data to digest in, you know, a couple of hours. But I think you all know Cofinimmo very well. You know us, all the team, so you know, we appreciate to have regular contact with you, and I hope you appreciate that, yes, indeed, we try to be as transparent as possible. The data about the underlying occupation took us, like Sébastien said, and I say us, it's a large team here, headed by, Sébastien, Yeliz, to get those data for several months. Yes, it was leaking outside, but I think it benefits on the industry.
You know, for the rest, I think we have an ambitious target like last year, but I hope that our track record is giving us some support, basically, to go ahead. Thank you, and we'll be in touch.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe. You may now disconnect.