Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Geoff Raskin from Investor Relations. Before I pass over to our CFO, let me remind you of the safe harbor and regarding forward-looking statements, which I will not read aloud, but which I assume you will have duly noted. I would also like to repeat that since 2022, following the strategic review end of last year and our subsequent plans to divest our emerging market business, we now present these as assets held for sale and discontinued operations. Our P&L thereby only encompasses our core markets as continuing operations. In the meantime, we will continue to provide you with business information for both the continuing core markets and the discontinued emerging markets. We'll make clear throughout the presentation when we cover what. Peter, with that, I give it over to you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As you know, we have a new CEO with Gustavo as from next week, and that change has been explained in the press release this morning. I will obviously be focusing on the Q3 results in this call. These Q2 results show that we are turning the corner in our performance recovery with sequential EBITDA and margin improvements. We have been ramping up actions to deliver on our strategic priorities over the past 18 months, and each is now contributing to the recovery in our performance. This achievement is, of course, against the backdrop of a continued challenging external environment with high raw material costs, energy and wage inflation. Ontex's revenues in Q3 were up 17% like-for-like, driven by volume, mix, and pricing.
We have now consistently seen this mid-single digits year-on-year volume and mix growth every quarter this year. Prices are up 13% in Q3 and counter the huge increase in raw material inflation that cannot be offset by our cost reduction programs alone. We have now begun to turn the corner with an EBITDA at EUR 35 million, up from EUR 25 million in Q2, and this will further increase in Q4. The group's financial structure has touched a low point in Q3, but with the improvement in EBITDA, the leverage will steadily come down starting in Q4. The net debt will be significantly reduced with the EUR 250 million proceeds from the divestment in Mexico early next year. Let's look first at the revenue growth on slide four.
Ontex has now returned to strong revenue growth, and this is driven by, as I said, volumes, product mix, and by pricing. The momentum we're now building in the turnaround of our top line is clearly visible in the charts. This swing has been built on six quarters of sequential growth, with Q3 2022 revenues up at a record high level. The role our strategic decisions have had in this change have been vital, which I will illustrate in the following slides. Turning to slide five on volume and mix. Ontex has been driving consumer demand shifts to retailer brands where market share has increased in Europe, notably in baby pants and Feminine Care. In this context, we have outperformed the market, posting mid-single digit volume mix growth in both Q3 and year to date.
We even did two percentage points better in core markets only. This growth has been driven by our strategic growth priorities, which you can see in the middle graph, showing the last 12 month volume and mix growth impact on revenue. The blue line is Ontex in total, where volume and mix impact turned positive this year and stands at 4% today. The growth drivers combined are in red, where and they were positive since the second half of 2022 and stand at 7% today. Baby pants continues to be a big driver in Q3. Our outperformance shows the effectiveness of our strategy to return Ontex to its influential role in Europe. As a direct consequence, we are gaining share in retail baby pants, which are winning in the market. In North America, we continue to ramp up our footprint.
In Q3 and year to date, we have generated consistent double-digit volume and mix growth, and this momentum will be supported by the expansion in capacity of our new U.S. plants and the performance improvements being rolled out in Tijuana. Adult care volumes were somewhat lower, but driven by outperformance in retail channels, where we also see higher growth in line with the trend for more home nursing. Cost reduction on page six. It's in parallel to restoring top-line growth, bringing down the group's structural cost base is key to the turnaround. In Q3, we maintained the momentum with a further EUR 23 million gross operating savings, of which EUR 15 million in core markets, bringing that total so far to 60 for the group.
Most recently, the small U.S. production facility acquired a few years ago was closed, with capacity being absorbed into our other plants on the continent. In Europe, scrap rates and operational efficiencies are better than the year before, and our service levels have continued to improve throughout the year. We expect to achieve around EUR 80 million of gross operating cost savings for the full group this year. While wage inflation driven by increased cost of living has pushed salary costs higher, SG&A costs are remaining at 10% or below. Turning now to raw material and input cost inflation on slide seven. Raw material costs were up close to 30% year to date, reflecting the delayed impact of rising indices in the previous quarters. Some raw material indices continued to climb, mainly for fluff and super absorbent polymers.
While others see some stabilization, they remain at significantly higher level compared to 2020. Energy, transport and wage inflation also play a role in the material, in the raw material price increase, as it does for our own transformation costs, which are up about 30% for energy year to date and 15% for transport. Overall, we're seeing a 20% year to date cost increase and close to 25% in Q3. Cost inflation is not over or behind us and margins have only partially recovered, so pricing remains key over the next quarters. With pricing on slide 8, as with volumes, pricing has been positive since the second half of last year, with momentum steadily building throughout the past nine months to reach 13% in Q3 for the whole group.
In core markets, we see a strong acceleration in the last quarter with a 6 percentage point sequential increase from Q2 to Q3. With our still low margins, we will continue to roll out further price increases to help offset the unprecedented raw material cost inflation. To bring all these various drivers I presented in the previous pages together, let's turn to slide nine. This slide gives us a summary of how the year-on-year evolution of volumes, cost reductions, cost inflation and pricing impacted our adjusted EBITDA since the start of 2021. On the right in green, you can see how consistent delivery of cost reduction measures since the start of 2021 plus volume and mix growth turning positive from 2022 are now contributing about EUR 30 million to the EBITDA every quarter since the start of the year.
We intend to keep this pace going forward. The left-hand side in red shows how we managed to price against the unprecedented cost inflation. You see that we have steadily increased prices in face of higher and higher inflation, and although we are not fully compensating cost inflation yet, Q3 is the first quarter where our additional pricing exceeds the further increase in costs. In the middle, you have the overall picture of how adjusted EBITDA has evolved over the last seven quarters. The dark line represents the net impact on adjusted EBITDA, adding the impact of growth and efficiencies in green and the net cost inflation in red. While clearly the net impact remains negative, the gap is narrowing significantly in Q3 with EBITDA improving versus Q2. We expect this to further improve in Q4 with EBITDA step up year-on-year.
Now, doing a deeper dive in reported core market figures. We break out the Q3 revenue on slide 10. You can see here how the 17% like-for-like revenue growth is based on a solid contribution of volume, mix and a growing price component. Ontex's volume and mix growth of 6% clearly continues to outperform the markets based on recent contract wins, positioning in higher value categories and retailer brands gaining share in the recessionary environment. Pricing is clearly the main game changer with an 11% increase up from 2% in Q1 and 5% in Q2. The momentum of this pricing is going well across categories, growing month after month and with further price increases planned in the coming months. We also benefit from a foreign exchange tailwind of 6%.
Turning to slide 11, we can see the impact of revenue growth on adjusted EBITDA, contributing EUR 48 million year-on-year, of which most is from the pricing of course. Note that this EUR 48 million marks a 50% increase compared to the revenue impact in Q2. Relentless focus on cost reduction delivered EUR 15 million, bringing the total for continuing operations at EUR 41 million in the year. However, these strong measures were not yet enough to compensate cost inflation, which is still sequentially up and amounted to EUR 81 million year-on-year. Wage inflation also led to higher SG&A expenses, but strong cost containment allowed to keep those costs below 10% of sales, as indicated before.
Finally, we had a positive impact from Forex, which with mainly the ruble appreciation more than offsetting the adverse impact of the US dollar appreciation on our costs. All this led to adjusted EBITDA down 41% year-on-year, but marks a sequential improvement of 28% versus Q2. That's also reflected in the adjusted EBITDA margin with a 0.8 percentage point improvement versus Q2. Returning to group numbers on slide 12. Net debt totals EUR 895 million at the end of September. The increase versus EUR 826 million at the end of June is mainly due to the lower EBITDA and increasing working capital needs. As revenue grows through volume mix and pricing and raw material prices are still up sequentially.
We continue to do work on our DSO, which improved, and we remain cautious with inventory levels for now as we keep them relatively high to secure supply in the current volatile environment. With high net debts and especially the last 12 month adjusted EBITDA still lower than the previous quarter, the leverage peaks at 7.7 x. This is temporary, as from the next quarter onwards, the last 12 month adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase again. The debt will come down significantly after the closing of the Mexican divestment foreseen by end Q1 2023, with a EUR 220 million loan as a priority. This is the debt that entails the covenants for which the next test is foreseen mid-2023.
The remaining debt after that is largely secure, with the main components being the EUR 580 million bonds with a fixed rate of 3.5% and maturing in 2026 and not warranting any covenants. Regarding the outlook on slide 13 now, the uncertain geopolitical environment and the inflationary macroeconomic situation continues to be volatile. For the short term, we have enough visibility to confirm our full-year outlook 2022. We have a positive view for Q4, and we expect the volume growth and pricing momentum to continue current trends. We now expect core revenue in core markets to grow by about 15% like-for-like, an improvement on the above 10% we anticipated prudently previously.
The adjusted EBITDA of core markets is confirmed to be within a EUR 100 million-EUR 110 million range, while for the total group, we expect it to land at the high end of the range of EUR 125 million-EUR 140 million. This implies that the adjusted EBITDA of Q4 is expected significantly up quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, confirming the start of the recovery. Cash flow discipline clearly remains a focus. While we want to ensure that we can continue to support our strategic growth initiatives with CapEx and working capital, nevertheless, we expect leverage to reduce by year-end to below 6.5 x. I do believe our priorities are clear.
We continue to drive the volume mix growth that we've seen in the previous quarters, and combined with the further step-up on pricing and the consistent cost saving delivery, we will continue the EBITDA improvements. This improvement and the cash discipline will bring leverage down. We're on track to refocus our portfolio and the divestment of the Mexican business activities will allow to reduce net debt in 2023. With that, let's pass over to Q&A.
Now, before we start the Q&A, can I ask all the participants to limit themselves to two questions only, please. If you have more, I invite you to go back into the queue, and if we have time, we will address them. In case of time constraints, please contact the IR department afterwards. Operator, over to you.
If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and please ensure your line is unmuted locally as you'll be advised when to ask your question. The first question comes from the line of Andre Philippides from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, it's actually Karine Elias from Barclays. Thank you for taking my questions and thank you for the presentation. I had a couple, please, and I'll come back to the queue for the rest. Can you confirm your drawings on the RCF? I believe in Q2, you had drawn about EUR 50 million on that. Secondly, if you could comment on the working capital movement, Q3 and year to date as well. Thank you.
Yeah. All right. Thanks, Andre, for your question. Starting with your first question on the RCF, you know, the RCF is providing working capital flexibility for us. Yes, we're still using it as we speak right now. We have been using it partly also because of some peaks that we've seen in Europe as we changed our payment cycle that has been leading to peaks. You know, we will intend to continue using it as long as we need it, because that's also what it is for. That's on the RCF. On the working capital levels, they are above what they can be and they should be.
I've mentioned already in previous calls that, because of the supply disruption context, we are more prudent on our inventory levels. We keep high levels of safety stock to make sure that we can absorb fluctuations we might have in the supply. Now the level of the evolution of the working capital is essentially driven by what's happening with the raw material costs and our growth basically in our top line. The volume growth is leading to high receivables, pricing is leading to high receivables, and then the inventory is impacted by the costs of inflation. On DSOs, we are doing well.
That's very helpful. Sorry, I may have missed. Have you mentioned the actual drawings on the RCFs? The quantum drawn on the RCFs for the quarter, please?
No. I don't have the exact number right now, but it's still above the 50 that we have that you quoted that we've been at the base at the half year.
Super. That's helpful. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Wim Hoste from KBC Securities. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. I also have two, then, please. Can you first talk a little bit about the commercial momentum for Q4 and into 2023, net contract wins, for example. I understand from the press release that retailer brands are doing relatively well versus private label, given the depressed consumer or, let's say, the pressure on disposable income. How is the kind of contract book looking for Q4 and in 2023? That's the first question, and also a little bit by segment and geography, please.
A second question is on the guidance for the full-year on the core markets, suggesting a significant jump in EBITDA margin in Q4, if you assume that there's not gonna be a major deviation in revenue, for example. Can you maybe talk about the key drivers? Is it mainly the inflationary context that will calm down? Is it mainly further pricing? Is it a combination of those together with cost savings? Can you maybe offer a little bit of additional kind of quantification or insights into what will drive that significant margin jump in Q4 that is kind of baked into the guidance? Those are the questions. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Wim. Taking your first question on the volume. You know, we have I talked in my presentation about the mid single digit growth that we are having in the different quarters already this year. Getting into Q4, we absolutely will continue to see that happening. October is giving some reassurance on that already. That momentum is there. You know, we've not with the pricing, all the pricing that we have done, we have not been. Actually, we've been winning volumes across. You know, there's a few drivers on that. First of all, there's contract wins that have been helping that.
Secondly, there is indeed a clear trend from consumers shifting from A-brands to private labels and to discounters, which of course creates a favorable environment for. That's especially we've seen that in baby pants and in Feminine Care. We've seen it also in Europe, across baby pants, Feminine Care. In North America, we've seen that more on baby pants and on the diaper side. That's a clear trend that you know, if I you know, link up to 2023, it's also something that we expect to carry over in 2023. You know, next to volume, we are seeing a very positive pricing and mix. You know, we are growing, especially on our strategic categories, on pants, on adult, across.
That is not only of course on the sales, but also on EBITDA, a good thing. Yeah, I think that's more or less covering it. Across the volume, your first question, there's been relatively limited tenders over the last 18 months with partly driven by COVID.
Is there lines from somebody open?
Yeah. Okay.
No.
All right.
Okay.
We expect some more tenders next year, which is again, you know, going to create a few more opportunities also for us. That's how we look at the volume today. On your second question, I think was around evolution from Q3 to Q4. You know, Q3 was already significantly better in absolutes than Q2. Not yet clearly at the margin levels that I want to see, but it's important to see that that's the corner has been turned, and we, you know, all the efforts we've done in the past is now also starting to deliver the margins in the quarter.
The step up in Q4 will actually be bigger, we expect, than the one between Q2 and Q3, both in absolute as in margins. That's, you know, going to be confirming the momentum. A key driver within that is pricing. You know, it's continued volume mix, as I said in the frame of your previous question. Next to that is continued pricing. We still are at margin levels that we want, and we will be seeing growing, and that's why we're still pricing. Some of that will be coming in in Q4. That's driving the increase that you will see in both emerging markets and core.
With regards to inflation, how much inflation are you going to see versus what we saw in Q3, for example?
Yeah. Well, in Q3, we still had an increase. I mean, year on year we always, I'm still talking big increases. Sequentially, which is I think what you mean, we had a further increase between Q3 versus Q2. In Q4, you know, that increase will be less. It will be, you know, only slightly up versus Q3.
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Charles Eden from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Excuse me. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple from me. First one on the change of CEO, and I appreciate you don't wanna get into the details here, but I do think it's important to comment. Clearly, Gustavo has extensive experience in the industry, which would have benefited the firm and, I'm sure already has, during his time on the board. I guess what is less clear, to me at least, is the timing of the decision, 'cause I guess one would have to assume Gustavo was heavily involved in the setting of the strategy in the first place, so therefore a change of strategy is unlikely. Is it simply a view of the need to, for increased speed of delivery on this strategy which has driven the change? Anything you can kind of comment there will be helpful, please.
then secondly, just, following up on the earlier question around sequential pricing, obviously a step up in Q4. Are you able to kind of give any indication compared to that six percentage point increase sequentially Q3 versus Q2 for core markets, how you think about the sequential benefit from pricing in Q4? Those are my two. Thank you.
All right. Thank you, Charles. On your question on the timing, you know, Esther has been instrumental in building the new Ontex in the past two years, in defining first of all the strategy, of course, together with the board, implementing it and mobilizing the organization around these themes. Certainly also navigating the organization and Ontex through the many headwinds that we have been facing. You know, we've been consistently delivering on those basic levers, and that, say, over different quarters. We've been consistently delivering on our cost savings, stepping up our pricing in different ways. Volume mix I talked about already on the turnaround, and starting and progressing on the divestment program.
We see some of that now, in Q3 results. There's more to come. You know, margins are still low. Leverage is too high, and inflation is not over. More of those levers and discipline will happen in the months and quarters to come. There will be more opportunities also to realize. I talked about a favorable private label context. There's opportunities with releasing a bit of the disruption on the supply side. And in all of that, you know, as we enter into the next phase of the transformation, the board believes that Gustavo is the right person and has the right experience to lead us through the next phase. Now, your second question was more on sequential Q4 versus Q3.
Actually, I answered on that already. I think partly in the previous question, which is, you know, it's mainly driven by pricing, which is not the exact amount. I don't have as a percentage point. It becomes also more difficult because we're comparing. When we talk about pricing, we compare. We talk about percentage versus last year. What's happening now already in Q3, but even more in Q4, is that you're comparing to a quarter where we already have been pricing. Last year, Q3, we have been pricing in first pricing in emerging markets. In Q4, we've been already significantly pricing in emerging markets and started in the core. The percentage will be less readable or less readable or comparable to previous quarters.
If I look at it absolutely, in absolute numbers, the majority of the increase will come from that and the consistent volume mix growth. Maybe one thing to add to that is that, you know, within, you know, I always talk about quarter after quarter of sequential, higher pricing. It's also within the quarter, you know, that we see pricing ramping up. September has been higher than August has been higher than July, and this is a trend that we've seen also in the previous quarters.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Othmane Bricha from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First on M&A, could you please confirm if you are still in discussions with AIP? Do you feel that now you are more advanced in the disposal of Brazil and other emerging market businesses compared to last time when on results, on future results? My second question is more on the long term. I'm trying to understand better your business ambition in the US, specifically the North Carolina factory, which you've opened earlier in the year. Can you maybe talk a bit about what is the factory utilization rate as of now? What's the product and customer mix? Have you signed with new customers or mainly extension of contracts that you've already had from the Tijuana plant?
Can you maybe comment more on your market share in retailer brands in the U.S.? Thank you.
All right. Thank you, Othmane. Taking your first question on AIP and the divestment project. If I first talk about AIP, you know, there is an opportunity clearly in the business combination with Attindas. There's no progress to report on that currently. We'll obviously come back, of course, when there is a significant change. At this point, honestly, I'm focusing mainly on the bigger turnaround and that we need to make for Ontex. On Brazil and you know, the other divestment projects. We have, as we discussed before, we've engaged with advisors, and we are making you know, we have projects running on all of them. We're making progress on all these files, including Brazil.
There's again, at this point, not more to report. We will inform you when there's more. Also here, I mean, we are clearly focusing on the improving the profitability of these activities. We do see, you know, that our progress in these markets is gaining traction. You know, part of the reason that we're have guided the full-year EBITDA outlook on the higher end of the range is because we see that we're making structural good progress in the emerging markets. You know, within the emerging markets, it was initially more Mexico, but then in Q3, there's actually more traction coming from the other markets who have been suffering a bit more before from things like hyperinflation or an unstable economic environment. That's on that part.
Now I'm thinking back what your other question was on the U.S., yes, specifically on operations, Stokesdale. Now U.S. is clearly our strategic growth platform. We are making structural investments in the region to support the group. We have been, and we are, and we will be growing double digits in that region. We indeed, in that context, are initiating many things. We are carving out the Tijuana factory from our Mexican operations, and that's something that is really happening as we speak, and will be done by the end of the year.
We have closed a Reidsville factory, which is a FemCare factory that we bought some time ago, and integrated that into the operations in the North American footprint. We officially opened, as you referred to, Stokesdale. Shipping started in quarter two. We are further ramping up where there's obviously you know customers being served from that factory you know existing customers with new business within existing customers. It obviously need to further ramp up to grow and get the optimal profitability, but that's very much within the frame, of course, as we have these double-digit growth plans in North America that we are delivering today.
Thank you. Maybe just comment on your market share in retailer brands in the U.S. now maybe versus two years ago?
Yeah. We're not disclosing our share on that level. We obviously are gaining traction because we are at a double-digit growth rate. It's clear that we're gaining share. It shows, honestly, we're still fairly low. We're still below 10% within the US, and that shows that there is a lot of potential for us to grow, especially with the solid footprint that we now have on the ground.
Thank you.
The next question, it comes from the line of Patrick Folan from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Just two quick ones for me. You touched on one of them, briefly before. On the volume mix, just heading into Q4 in 2023, can you provide a rough split of the volume benefit you saw between contract wins and then consumers trading down to retailer brands? I think you mentioned that there's limited tenders this year, so will that impact the volume mix number heading into the first half of next year? Or will the momentum carry through into 2023? On that volume mix, are you seeing stickiness in terms of pricing on those negotiations? Then secondly, just a quick one, is there any market or any category to call out that you've seen any price elasticity at all? Thanks.
All right. Thanks, Patrick. Okay, on the volume side. Yes, two elements that I quoted before. That's the contract wins that we have. And actually, it's a little bit broader than that if you look at Q3, because we also had some more traction, especially on FemCare, for instance, where we had a bit more supply disruption challenges before, and now there's a bit of a catch-up on that level. Essentially, yes, contract wins both in North America and in Europe, and then a trend from, you know, A-brands to private labels considering the recession that they're facing, the purchasing power challenges that they have.
We expect absolutely that to go forward into 2023. There's no reason to believe at this point that momentum is going to go away, and it's not what we see today in our volumes and what's at the start of Q4 either. You asked about pricing negotiations. You know, so far, you know, we have not, we've been pricing significantly. We have not lost volumes. On the contrary, we've been gaining volumes through that. You know, this is not repricing for inflation. This is an industry challenge that everybody's facing. If you look at other companies, public companies communicating, you'll see similar things.
Within that context, you know, we believe we're well-positioned, also on the volume side to continue the momentum that we have.
Just on the down trading, what percent of that 11% volume mix was due to that trend? Is there a rough split there?
Yeah. I'm not going to go into that in that level of detail. They both are contributing and fairly consistently.
Okay, thank you.
Second question.
Could you?
Another question.
Sorry, Patrick, I didn't capture your second question. Could you
Yeah, just on pricing elasticity, is there any particular market or category, you know, within the portfolio to call out that you're seeing anything? It seems pretty robust at the moment considering the trends, but just any market you're seeing anything.
No. I think it's very good. Considering the nature of the reason why we price, we're pricing across categories, across markets. What you can notice, and you've probably seen that, is that the step up between Q2 and Q3 has been higher in the core from 5% to 11%, so 6 points up, which is more than what the first step up in emerging markets which have started to price earlier.
Mm.
If you look at the segments, you know, you could make a nuance between a bit for the institutional market where, you know, in healthcare, where basically it is a bit more complicated because there's longer term contracts and then there is legal constraints sometimes. It takes a bit more time to price in these circumstances. Still, we're also making progress there and we are pricing. There's also a rollover of contracts, of course, that you know, as every day or every month there's contracts being renewed, that's obviously then the opportunity to price.
The next question comes from the line of Karel Zoete from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I have two questions. The first one is on staying with pricing and the upcoming price rounds in a few months. Has the tender structures in your industry have been altered at all or will it remain like it was where you have typically a 12 month agreement with each other? My reason for asking, of course, is that retailers are clearly seeing that prices have gone up dramatically and maybe more is needed but also at some point cost might come down. The second question is more on net debt and cash flow drivers. You already spoke on EBITDA improvement or adjusted EBITDA improvement and the working capital drivers and the decisions there.
Can you speak about other cash drivers, how you see that developing in the coming quarters, specifically thinking about the interest cost, but also certainly CapEx, where you must have had some inflation in those lines as well, and some cash out for exceptionals. Any guide on cash flow items would be much appreciated. Thank you.
All right. On your pricing question, on tender structures, I mean, tenders have not structurally changed. I did comment before that there have been, we've seen less than before in the last 18 months, and that's again linked to probably the context that everybody has been facing and to some extent COVID, but the structure itself has not changed. It's of course, you know, when we're renewing contracts in certain areas like healthcare, we of course try to learn from sometimes the complexity in some specifications that we have and implement that. Apart from that, I think there's no fundamental changes to how that is being done.
You did hint and ask about, you know, when inflation would start coming down. Again, I would be looking forward to that moment. At this point, you know, we do see further inflation and we do see the market still being being needing to do what we have been doing over the last months and is now finally resulting also in an increase of the margin. On the cash side, and the different drivers you talked about, CapEx. Let me start by CapEx. We, it's one of the areas CapEx together with, I'd say I combine it in this logic with the non-recurring investments.
The one-offs, that's something that we're really carefully managing in a very disciplined way. We've been spending less than what we have been talking about in terms of long-term or midterm guidance. I think we've been in the first half, we have been at 2.3% Q3 of sales on CapEx, since we've been higher in Q3. We will be going gradually and again in a balanced way up to the guidance that we have on the 4%. Towards the end of the year, Q4 will be a little bit higher as well.
Again, we play it in the right way because we need to balance it with the recovery of our EBITDA and the improvement on the working capital side of our cash flow. You know, just also to be sure on that, we are the large majority of that CapEx is being focused on the strategic growth drivers. We're making all the investments that need to be made, especially on the priorities on pants, on U.S. expansion. On the interest, there is a, you know, there is a limited increase. Most of the interest costs are quite protected against the interest levels.
What I especially want to highlight is that, you know, we're on the versus our current debt. We will be reducing our current net debt level with the proceeds from the Mexico sale. With the EUR 250 million that we expect early next year, we'll be paying back our term loan, which is the area where we have the covenants and where there's a bit more impact on the level of our leverage and the level of our leverage. Now after that, we will be essentially with a debt that consists of the bonds, which is EUR 580 million, and that's a 3.5% fixed rate and the maturity in 2026 and carrying no covenants. I think we have a strong financial position with that.
Okay. Many thanks.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from the line of [inaudible] from Marissa. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I have just one. Can you help me understand the dynamics between your working capital expectations and factoring? Because you said that working capital is above what it should be, but I'm just a little bit puzzled by why that should change in Q4 when you continue to grow that substantially and with input costs not coming down that much. So should I be looking at it in terms of factoring that has changed? And could you also perhaps help me on the factoring in Q3 and what your expectations are for Q4? Thank you.
Yeah. Right then. Thanks for your question. It's a clear and good one. Let me be also short on that. I think the positive. Well, first of all, I need to put a bit of prudence because we are navigating working capital within the context of insecure supply, and that's why, you know, sometimes we do make goals to keep safety stocks higher than what we intended it to be two months earlier because there is a supply area that we wanna cover up. Now, having said that, the improvement to which Q4 is actually twofold. The first is really inventories. You know, there is improvement in the supply disruption area.
It started a year ago, and then we gradually started, again, not just on the expense. This is an industry challenge, and then it started improving month after month. There was a bit of a setback at the moment of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Again, we're improving very nicely right now, which also means that on the working capital, on the inventory specifically, we don't need to be taking all the precaution measures that we have been taking before. We are gradually releasing that. I hope to be able to do that mostly in Q4. If not, it's gonna be the first half of next year.
Secondly, the second driver is on the DSO side, that you know, we have a further ambition to progressively improve our DSO, which has already happened so far year-to-date, but we will take it another step in quarter four.
Could you also comment on the factoring?
The factoring is, we do that since several years. You know, we don't disclose it at the quarter level, but I can tell you that, we've been using you know, since we use it, we've been very consistent in the usage, so this is not a major driver.
Okay. For Q4 at end of Q4, we can assume it will be equal to half year?
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Peter Testa from One Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. It was a couple of questions, please. One is just when looking at the margin implied in Q4 and as a base for rolling forward at the start of 2023. Just wanna make sure that when you think about the sequential nature of your development, whether we can consider that as a base margin to start the year next year. Not looking for a forecast per se, but more as an understanding of how, you know, the metrics driving that Q4 being continuing. And the second question is just on the medical side, whether there's any opportunities to win in your contract negotiations there to start to catch up on the medical related business on repricing.
Okay. Thank you, Peter. First question on the margin, Q4 and being a good base to start 2023 without making a forecast for 2023. Yeah, you know, it is too early to provide guidance on 2023. You know, there is still volatility in the system and uncertainty both on a demand level as on a cost level at the end of the day. I can talk a bit about what I do know, and what we do.
First of all, this consumer trading momentum from A-brands to private labels protecting, you know, giving some protection and growth to our volumes, I talked about before, I see no reason to have different things anytime soon. We will have next year a pricing and cost carryover. If you consider the ramping up that we've seen on both pricing and cost inflation in the course of 2022, clearly, that will have a carryover effect in 2023. I mentioned before already that cost inflation is not over. We see, you know, some indices going down and, like, things like ocean freight improving. On the other hand, we have areas like fluff. The RISI is record high. Well, you don't have to explain your energy costs.
Wages, wage inflation are three areas where we have, you know, increasing costs. Now, some of it we have been protected somewhat in 2022 by either hedging or longer term or, you know, yearly contracts. That, of course, will be an area that also kicks into the equation. Now, we are planning and have already organized additional pricing, and we will continue to do pricing and cost reduction measures, you know, where needed. Cost program will roll over. We've been delivering consistently. We've talked about EUR 80 million cost savings this year. We will be going for that in 2023. Honestly, while I cannot give a specific forecast, I can, you know, easily predict we will be hammering on the same nail and the same drivers as we've been doing this year.
You know, I'm confident to see a year-on-year recovery of profitability also in 2023. Your second question is on the medical side of the business or healthcare. You know, we are looking at every opportunity to take pricing in healthcare, it is more challenging, as I talked about before in our current contracts, because you know, they are longer, and they have more legal constraints at moments. So that's why, you know, it takes a bit of time. As I said, we're progressing, we have contracts rolling over. When they're rolling over, or when we're adjusting or when we have new contracts, of course, we take into account any learnings to implement in the next months, because what we're facing in 2022 is extremely unprecedented, of course.
Some of that was easy. It was not, but it was not easy to anticipate. As you know, next to pricing, which we are carrying through in that segment, we're also working, of course, hard on product mix to make sure that we protect and grow our profitability within that. Pants is one good example of how that works in the segment.
Yeah. Just to follow on my question around the healthcare part was whether if you looked at quite often these are annual contracts and have some annual element to them, whether there's a significant body of that or whether these are still medium-term contracts largely?
There's a mix of, you know, if you look at adult or in general, I mean, there's a mix of many contracts. There's not necessarily a little bit like with the tender question I had before. There's not necessarily structural dynamics that for certain segments, contracts are getting shorter or longer. It's been a mix. Overall, it's been longer in healthcare, institutional, and we expect that's still gonna be the case.
Yeah. Okay. No, thanks very much.
Next question comes from the line of Fernand de Boer from Degroof Petercam. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Fernand de Boer, Degroof Petercam. Just to come back on, let's say, the credit facility and the term loan, this is contractual that you have to pay down the debt, because if you look at the current bond price, it seems to be also rather attractive to buy them back at around 80%. Could you comment on that one? Then on the covenant calculation, I think next year in June, you are back for the covenant calculations. Of course, you will have then the sale of Mexico. But do they then also exclude in the EBITDA calculations the EBITDA from Mexico? Could you confirm that?
Okay. Thanks, Fernand. On the proceeds from Mexico, yes. We are anticipating the EUR 250 million proceeds from that divestment. We have agreed with our banking partners that paying back the term loan is the first priority. You know, what we will do, which again will help a lot, also in making sure that our financial debt position is gonna be strong. What we will do beyond that, honestly, we will evaluate and do whatever is best in the interest of the company and the shareholders.
It's contractual that you are obliged to pay down the term loan first. 'Cause you can buy something back at 80%, which is more attractive than much.
As I said, it's what we agreed with our banking partners, that we would prioritize paying back the term loan.
Okay.
On the covenant calculation for 2023, yes, obviously, when you know, when we have divested Mexico and we update the leverage, we'll be you know, benefiting from the lower debt, significantly lower net debt because we are getting those proceeds. Of course, also the EBITDA from Mexico will be excluded as of that moment, yes.
Of course, you don't have any covenant anymore if you have paid down the term loan.
That is correct.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Eric Wilmer from ABN AMRO ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. A few questions left. I will ask them one by one. I appreciate it's difficult to share anticipated sequential price increases, but would it be possible to share the exit rate in September? Thank you.
Okay. You were going to do sequentially your questions. September, yeah, I mean, I'm not going to give specific numbers by month. I already mentioned that within the quarter the pricing has been ramping up, has been higher in August and July and high in September than in August. It's clear that the profitability step-up in Q3 has been driven by pricing. That gives you the answer on the fact that September has been the best month in terms of margin within our quarter. You know, we also see, of course, that's entering and running over into Q4. There you also see that momentum continuing.
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. Next question. Given your production SKU in the Belgian or to the Belgian market, and as such, your vulnerability to Belgian wage indexation, does this raise a discussion about moving some production to other countries?
Well, you know, we're pretty diversified. You talked about production Belgium. I mean, we have multiple factories, only two in Belgium. That's one part to your element. So it's not that extreme. You know, next to that, you know, we have a very ambitious cost program both on operational costs and on SG&A. We have dropped SG&A down below 10%, already this year. We come from more than two points higher. We've done it different ways. We've done a restructuring, a significant restructuring last year. This year was more about containing and managing the cost against the growing inflation.
We will continue to deliver on the objectives that we have set for SG&A via the recipes that we will meet. You know, it's not that there's anything on the table, like, you know, like you've been hinting at.
Okay, understood. Thanks. My last question on the competitive environment from A-brands. I think in the past, we've seen A-brands introducing aggressive promotions as soon as their volume started to suffer. Is this something you are seeing in any of your geographies as consumers are moving into private label? Thanks.
Obviously, I mean, first factually, we are growing volumes, and quite nicely and quite strongly actually, and especially in the core. Factually, it's certainly not impacting us, right now. Obviously, we see A-brands players reacting and, you know, doing what they need to do beyond the pricing. They protect their volumes, which is what I would do if I were in their shoes. Still, we have gains. We see some differences between markets, but overall, you know, we are in a winning position on the volume side and, you know, looking forward to Q4, I don't see any sign why that would be different at that moment.
Very clear. Thank you.
Okay. We've reached the hour, so we will not do a second round. For those who wanted to do that, feel free to get in touch with me this afternoon. I'll leave the floor to Peter to make his final comments.
All right. Thank you everybody for your questions. You know, as you've seen, we have turned the corner. Q3 has been an important moment. I mean, you could finally see the efforts on costs, on pricing, on volume sales turnarounds, affecting into an EBITDA and a margin that goes into the right direction. Certainly not happy with the absolute 5.5% margin or a leverage of 8%, that speaks for itself. It's important to see that, you know, in Q4 we will be significantly better on EBITDA and on the leverage. That will, you know, is the start of turning around and going to the right direction, thanks to the different efforts that we put in place.
Thank you for your time, and I'll talk to you soon or next time.
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