Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending EDP first quarter 2023 results conference call. We have today with us our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, which will present you the main highlights of first quarter 23 financial performance. We'll move to the Q&A session, in which we'll be taking your questions both by phone or written questions that you can insert from now onwards at our webpage. sorry. I will give now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade.
Thank you, Miguel. Good morning, everyone. Again, thank you for attending this results conference call. I'd suggest we go into slide 3 and kick off the presentation. Essentially what I'd say is that what you can see on this slide is that the first quarter was marked by a very strong financial and operational performance, mainly supported by the recovery of hydro conditions in Portugal. We had a very strong EBITDA of EUR 1.4 billion, mostly driven by the recovery of the hydro conditions in Portugal, as I mentioned, that resulted in a production of around 3.5 terawatt-hours, 0.4 terawatt-hours higher than expected for the quarter. Wind and solar EBITDA, EUR 0.1 billion higher year-on-year, driven by higher install capacity, higher generation, and the ramp-up of selling prices.
Electricity networks in Brazil also grew, given inflation impact in tariff updates and transmission expansion in Brazil. We had improved energy management with a decrease in electricity and gas sourcing costs from the peak levels in 2022. Overall, going down to the bottom line, we get recurring net profit above EUR 300 million, and this can be explained obviously by the EBITDA growth. It's mitigated by an increase in financial costs and income taxes, given the improved results in Portugal and Brazil, two countries that have an effective tax rate above portfolio average and no asset rotation gains in the first quarter of 2023. I know this is something that some of you commented earlier this morning, and basically just to give you a highlight on that.
Just to mention, 2 days ago, EDP paid a dividend of EUR 0.19 per share. That represents a dividend payout ratio of around 86% on 2022 recurring net profit. If we move on to slide 4. As I already mentioned, hydro generation recovered from the very first or very weak first 9 months of 2022 and an absolutely disastrous hydro the first quarter of last year. On the left, you can see that we moved from a hydro shortfall of 2.6 terawatt-hours first quarter last year to 0.4 terawatt-hours above expected in the first quarter of 2023. Quite a strong recovery here to more normalized levels.
Additionally, note that although February, March, and April were dry months, our reservoir levels remain high at around 80% of their maximum capacity, which is higher than the historical average for this time of year, and it's considerably higher versus the 2022 abnormally low levels. This being said, good hydro generation levels in 2023 so far and high reservoir levels provide some comfort for the remainder of 2023. I think the fact that we're at these levels as of today already in May, set us up well for the rest of the year. Moving on to slide 5. Once again, I think this showcases really the robustness of the Portuguese electricity system in terms of stable energy prices.
As you know, Portugal has a significant weight of long-term contracted renewables in the energy mix and was able to maintain stable end-user electricity prices during the European crisis, energy crisis of 2022. As I say, good resilience, good robustness to the high electricity and gas wholesale prices. The Portuguese consumer, the domestic consumer, was basically insulated from last year's escalation of prices and even this year as well. In general, we've been able to keep relatively stable and flat prices throughout this crisis. You can see that on the left. Both residential and industrial segments had essentially price increases in the second semester of 2022, but very low. According to the Eurostat data, 2% for residentials, 5% for industrials.
We also had some Eurostat data which came out recently, which showed that Portugal has actually become much more competitive in terms of the cost of energy versus the rest of Europe. This was all done without compromising financial stability. The Portuguese electricity system debt decreased by more than EUR 2 billion over the last two years. It's reduced in approximately half over this period. For 2023, I mean, the lower-than-expected wholesale prices in this first quarter imply some short-term negative deviations. This should be corrected very soon, as the Portuguese independent regulator has already communicated its proposal to review the access tariffs starting from the first of July 2023, already taking into account these lower wholesale prices, adjusting the access tariffs to take this into account. If we move on to slide six.
Wind and solar, very much focused on execution. As I've mentioned earlier this week, we've already contracted 1.5 GW since the Capital Markets Day, mostly in Europe and in the U.S. This leaves us with around 8.5 GW of secured capacity, about 50% of the capacity targeted for the business plan since 2026, or until 2026. Of these 8.5 GW, 5.7 are secured for 2023 and 2024. Around 75% of the target additions for this period are on track to deliver on our growth ambitions. Also highlighting that we have 5 GW of capacity under construction, of which we expect to install around 3 GW in 2023, and we continue to ramp up the capacity under construction over the next couple of months.
As I mentioned, on Wednesday, we have about 0.9 gigawatts of solar PV installations in the US that are moving from 2023 to 2024, essentially related to the delay of solar modules from LONGi. As I've mentioned, this is unfortunately taking more time than expected to fulfill the U.S. Customs and Border Protection documentation requests, and I believe LONGi is working to get that done as soon as possible. In any case, we are assuming that these 0.9 are moving to 2024. However, we haven't been stopped, obviously. We've been adapting and diversifying our solar supply chain strategy to make sure that we can continue to deliver on the business plan.
We've secured 1.5 GW with First Solar in the U.S. for the post-2024 CODs, and we're now working with more than five solar manufacturers for 2024 installations to guarantee we do not have similar setbacks in the future. All in all, I think we continue with good performance on securing new capacity to be installed, and that gives us confidence on achieving the targeted additions until 2026, despite some setbacks on the U.S. solar additions in 2023. Moving on to slide 7, let's talk about our solar DG business. As of March, we had an installed capacity of 0.8 GW, of which 0.3 were installed over the last 12 months. A very meaningful 66% capacity growth over this period.
Since 2020, we've already secured 1.8 GW, of which 0.8 are installed, 0.4 are transactional, meaning that they're built and then transferred to the customer, and 0.6 are under construction or secured to be added. We continue to be very confident on this technology's future prospects. Last week, we signed a framework agreement with Google to install up to 500 MW AC in local energy communities in the U.S. In Europe, DG is going through a high-growth momentum with more than 100 MW AC of new DG capacity signed over the last 2 quarters. In Asia-Pacific, we have around 120 MW AC of solar DG under construction. In this region, we've already secured 40% of the additions for 2023-2026. If we move now to slide 8.
I'm talking about interest rates. We continue to manage our exposure to interest rate risk. As of March, we have 73% of our debt with fixed interest rates, and part of the debt with floating interest rates is matched by asset exposure to inflation in Brazil. Debt in Brazilian reais represents around 15% of our total debt, and the EBITDA from Brazil represents around 30% of the total, which clearly demonstrates that we are inflation hedged here. We mentioned in 2022, we closed around EUR 2 billion of pre-hedge interest rate for 2023 and 2024 refinancing needs. We have EUR 1 billion and $1 billion pre-hedged at around 1.8% and 2.6% respectively. Very competitive prices versus the current one, so reducing the interest rate risk for upcoming refinancing needs.
Regarding expectations on asset rotations, we stick to the capital gains of around EUR 0.3 billion, given that the clean energy and ESG components of the assets more than compensate the move of interest rates over the last two years. We're continuing to see demand, we're continuing to see the value there. I've talked about that also as well. Overall, asset rotation transactions planned for 2023 on track to deliver the expected returns. Move on to slide 9, and just a quick word here on an update on the tender offer on EDP Brazil Minorities. The auction is expected to happen in the third quarter. We've been working on this and already completed several milestones, and we expect the CVM approval, so the market regulator in Brazil approval between May and June.
As we mentioned in the capital markets presentation, the expected EUR 1 billion of investment was already funded through the share capital increase on up at the EDP level carried out in March. We're very confident that the success of this transaction will be translated into a simplified corporate structure, and it's fully aligned with our strategy focused on renewables and electricity networks. Moving on to slide 10, just before I pass over to Rui. Good performance in terms of emission reductions in the first quarter of 2023. We're fully committed to decarbonization, with Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity decreasing year-on-year by almost half. You can see this puts us on the right track to achieve our ambition of reducing those emissions by 95% in 2030 compared to 2020 levels.
I'd also highlight that EDP's climate transition plan was submitted for advisory vote at the 2023 AGM. It was approved with 99.73%, which clearly shows the confidence that investors have in our ambition regarding net zero targets. Supported by the normalization of hydro resources in Portugal and the subsequent decrease in thermal activity this year, renewables accounted for 88% of total generation, which is 10 percentage points increase year-on-year. The revenues from coal decreased 4 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7%. We also improved our alignment with the EU Taxonomy, so 67% alignment for revenues, that's 14% higher year-on-year, and 97% alignment for the CapEx investments.
Finally, just to reiterate our ambition to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions, supported by being coal-free by 2025 and 100% renewable by 2030, focusing our investments in renewables and electricity grids. With that, I hand it over to you, Rui, to deep dive on the financials, and then I'll come back for closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you, Miguel. Good morning to you all. I'd like to go through the EDP's financial performance in the first quarter. Please go to page 12. Recurring EBITDA increased by two times year-on-year to above EUR 1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2023. As you see, recurring EBITDA for renewables, client and energy management was up by EUR 0.7 billion, mainly driven by the recovery of hydro in Portugal to normalized levels, improved energy management results due to lower electricity and gas sourcing costs, and higher wind and solar EBITDA on the back of 11% increase in generation and 8% increase in average selling price. In the electricity networks, EBITDA increased by 5% year-on-year, driven by the growth in Brazilian networks due to the positive annual tariff updates and growth in the transmission business.
Please note that in the first quarter in 2022, we were heavily penalized by the extreme droughts together with record high energy prices. If we move now to slide 13, EBITDA for EDPR increased 14% year-on-year. That was the result of 5% growth in installed capacity to 14.8 gigawatts. That, together with good renewable resources, led to 11% increase in electricity generation. The generation was sold at an average selling price of EUR 62.5 per megawatt hour, which is 8% higher year-on-year. This was across all the different regional hubs with year-on-year growth.
Europe growing 21%, North America 14%, and South American and APAC more than 6 times, mainly due to a strong delivery of organic growth in Brazil, namely the commissioning of a couple of, or actually three, large plants, Boqueirão, Azalea Springs, and Monte Verde, with a total of 0.6 GW and the impact of Sunseap integration since February 2022. Also please note that we have no results from asset rotation gains, neither in first quarter 2022 nor in the first quarter of 2023. Now on slide 14, from an integrated perspective, hydro, clients and energy management was marked by an overturn in operating conditions following the extreme adverse first quarter 2022.
In Iberia, results were positively impacted by the normalization of hydro resources, with generation being 3.5 TWh, which is more than double versus last year, and approximately 0.4 TWh above our expected production. This positive impact was mitigated by the decrease in thermal generation, with coal and gas firepower plants producing almost half of first quarter 2022 volumes. On energy management, there was a decrease in electricity and gas sourcing costs. This has mainly to do with the 58% decrease in electricity spot price in Iberia to an average of EUR 96 per MWh in the first quarter of this year, and 47% decline in gas spot prices to an average of EUR 52 per MWh gas.
In Brazil, EBITDA slightly decreased by EUR 2 million, with better hydro conditions, but lower volume from the sale of Mascarenhas hydropower plant in the fourth quarter last year. Now as we move into slide 15, just highlighting the year-on-year dynamics of the integrated portfolio. The hydro, clients and energy management have a negative EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022, mainly impacted by the negative EUR 0.4 billion from the hydro shortfall, simultaneously with this record high electricity prices that we observed in the first quarter of last year, and the mark to market on gas hedging contracts that last year was not recognized through hedge accounting and that suffered from a sharp increase in the spread TTF to Henry Hub. In the first quarter this year, we saw a strong rebound in Iberia.
We have lower electricity and gas sourcing costs, given the decrease in electricity and gas spot prices, normalization of hydro resources in Portugal versus the first quarter last year, and finally, a positive year-on-year comparison with no material negative impact from mark to market on energy contracts in the first quarter this year. This is mostly related to the derivative of last year gas contract. You may remind that we addressed this and solved this since Q3 last year. This being said, we reach an integrated EBITDA of EUR 0.53 billion in Iberia, which we believe is above a normalized level per quarter, which should be more in the range of EUR 0.3 billion-EUR 0.4 billion. Now looking to the network's performance on slide 16.
Network's EBITDA increased 5% year-on-year, reflecting mainly a 16% increase in Brazil with transmission expansion and the tariff updates to inflation. In Iberia, EBITDA decreased 2%. In Portugal, actually it increased EUR 2 million year-on-year, with increase in the rate of return on RAB being mitigated by the increase in OPEX. In Spain, EBITDA decreased 7% given that first quarter 2022 was impacted by a recovery of revenues from previous years. Excluding this impact, EBITDA in Spain would have been flat year-on-year. Please note that we will continue the work to be done in efficiency, digitalization in terms of overall in our electricity networks. As of March, we have 6.7 million smart meters installed across all the geographies, of which 0.8 million installed over the last 12 months.
Now let's move to the financial costs on slide 17. If we exclude FX differences and derivatives, adjusted net financial interest increased 27% year-over-year to EUR 24 million, resulting in a 90 basis point increase in the average cost of debt to 4.8%. This is mainly explained by 2 factors. One is Brazil, that represents around 15% of EDP's debt. More than 40% of the interest costs, given the higher cost of debt in Brazil and Reais from last year's 12.6% to more than 14.3% in the first quarter this year. Please note that Brazil also has revenues indexed to inflation, and that's why we have this floating debt on a financial side, and therefore hedging at the net profit level.
Euro and U.S. dollar denominated debt was also experienced increasing, so we also saw the increase in the cost given the higher interest rate environment. Overall, cost of debt increased from 4.8% versus the 3.9% in the first quarter of 2022. If we were to exclude Brazil, cost of debt reached only 3.1% in the first quarter of 2023. This is of course important also looking at financial liquidity on slide 18. Strong financial liquidity remained in our balance sheet in the company, with more than EUR 10 billion of available liquidity, of which more than EUR 4 billion are cash equivalents and the remaining EUR 6 billion of available credit lines for more than 25 counterparts.
As we can see in the right-hand side of the slide, this liquidity covers the refinancing needs beyond 2025. Moreover, as Miguel said before, we already have around 2 billion of pre-hedged benchmark interest rates for a five-year maturity, representing about 70% of 2023 and 2024 bond maturities. This will provide a positive impact on the evolution of the average cost of debt over the next two years. On slide 19, our net debt decreased to EUR 13.1 billion as of March 2023, from four different factors. First, of course, is the recurring organic cash flow of EUR 0.4 billion on the back of a very strong EBITDA performance in the first quarter. Regulatory working capital of EUR 1.1 billion from the reversal of cash inflow that we registered in 2022.
Net expansion investments that amounted to EUR 1.2 billion. Finally, the EUR 2 billion from the capital, the equity raises, equity capital raises, of which EUR 1 billion at EDP and EUR 1 billion at EDPR. Finally, given the strong performance in the first Q this year and the referred EUR 2 billion of equity raise, we reinforce our credit ratios, net debt EBITDA at 2.8x and FFO net debt at 23% in the first quarter. This is 3% real points higher year-over-year. To finalize, before handing over to Miguel, I would like to highlight on the net profit on slide 20, that recurring net profit amounted to EUR 306 million. That's a recovery versus the negative EUR 76 million in the first quarter of 2022, slightly below the previous quarter.
Although this time without any impact from asset rotation gains or any material impact from non-recurring items. Below, EBITDA, just to highlight that financial costs increased, as explained before, due to the higher cost of debt mostly coming from Brazil. Higher income taxes, given that we had higher weight of earnings before taxes from Portugal and Brazil, which have higher corporate tax rates than the average of the portfolio. With this, I will now hand over to Miguel for closing remarks. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Rui. Just to wrap up the first quarter performance. A good start to the year, that's for sure. Sound results. Recurring EBITDA, EUR 1.4 billion and net profit, over EUR 300 million. EBITDA growth supported by the normalization of hydro in Portugal, hydro volumes recovering, obviously from a very weak 2022, particularly the first nine months, and generating around 3.5 terawatt-hours of energy, 0.4 higher than expected. Wind and solar, very solid as well. 5% increase in solar capacity year on year, 11% increase in generation, and also an increase in average selling price. In electricity networks, as I mentioned, positive impact from inflation updates on revenues.
For the remaining part of 2023, we have a positive outlook, so we're seeing improving average selling prices as the hedges made last year roll over. Hydro reservoir levels currently above average at around 80% and lower electricity and gas sourcing costs. On renewables, regarding capacity deployments into CMD, we've secured 1.5 GW of renewables, reaching the 8.5 GW I mentioned, around 50% of the target for 2026. Expecting to install around 3 GW in our key markets and reinforcing our strategy to diversify the solar supply chain to avoid further constraints. Funding and financial costs, positive on delivering target asset rotation for 2023. Average cost of debt being impacted by Brazil, but being balanced by having 100% inflation-linked revenues.
EUR 1 billion, $1 billion pre-hedged on new debt issues for 2023 and 2024. Finally, a reinforced balance sheet with the EUR 2 billion raised in EDP and EDPR that will support the renewables growth and the EDP Brazil minorities buyback. Once again, thank you for attending this quarter's results. Miguel, Diana tells me that a lot of questions have already come in online, we can now move to Q&A and we'll take as many as we can. Thank you.
Okay, we can go to the first question on the phone, which comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Alberto, please go ahead.
Miguel, thank you. Good afternoon. Given we spoke about already quite a lot about the IRA opportunities in EDPR, I wanted to ask maybe two specific questions on numbers and one, again, a follow-up on IRRs from the other day. I guess the first question is that I was wondering if you were surprised somehow by the evolution of the net debt in the first quarter. You know, you raised EUR 2 billion, the net debt is unchanged. I think that your waterfall chart is very clear. It looks like this is still entirely an issue having to do with the regulatory working capital. I guess my question is this correct? When do you expect this to reabsorb, or should we expect incremental regulatory working capital for the rest of the year?
This seems to be the biggest delta, if I'm right. The second question is that I see that there was no guidance for earnings. Usual question, Bloomberg consensus seems to be between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion, call it EUR 1.15 billion net income. May I ask if you're perhaps comfortable, very comfortable or no comment. I mean, you just delivered more than EUR 300 million with lots of taxes in it, and you're talking about rising prices and lower sourcing costs and more capacity for the rest of the year. To which we need to add asset rotation gains. It seems that, if I were to guess, I would guess you must be very, very comfortable with consensus. Last question.
The other day, you talk about PPAs moving to 60, 70 euros or dollars per megawatt hour. May I ask if this is anecdotal or actually you see this pretty consistently in the new auctions and new PPAs? I just was trying to understand how sustainable is that, because, you know, the other day you reiterated you're comfortably above 200 basis points over WACC on returns. You know, given so many investors are skeptical on the ability to create value, any extra light you could shed would probably be much appreciated. Thank you so much for your patience.
Thank you, Albert. A couple of comments and then I'll ask Rui also to comment on the net debt issue, but I'll just say there that it's well within expectations and something that didn't surprise us. Going to your comment on the guidance. We are comfortable with the EUR 1.1 billion, in line with what we said in our capital markets, say, 2 months ago. Maybe just going a little bit deeper and giving you a bit more color on that. We see in 2023, obviously, as you've noticed in the first quarter, a higher expected contribution from the Iberian integrated generation and supply business. I know there've been comments about the way we're presenting this, but more and more we see this as an integrated, let's say, value chain.
On the generation supply, we're not splitting it up. We may evolve again if you get additional comments on this. We do think it reflects sort of this integrated margin that we see. Rather than the volatility on some of the pieces underlying it. Anyway, the higher expected contribution here. As we mentioned, we have had some capacity additions that have been delayed from 2023 to 2024 and also some decline in the average selling price for in EDP Renováveis, so some significant callbacks. You know, we've been guiding, I think, EDPR down. Certainly that's what we mentioned in the call on Wednesday. I just wanted to reiterate that now.
Financial results slightly higher than last year, you know, penalized by the higher cost of debt, but we expect it to be stable at around 4.8%. Effective tax rate, as you mentioned, the first quarter is high, but we expect it to settle at around the mid-20s over the rest of the year. This is because of the mix of where the profit is being generated. It's got a lot of Brazil, higher weight of Portugal, which has the higher effective tax rate, as you know, around 31%. It's really a function of the mix over the year. This mix will evolve, you know, as you also have asset rotations and other things coming in, until it should be at the mid-20s. Then going forward after that, probably in the low 20s, so post 2023.
Hopefully that's a little bit of color on in terms of guidance, but just coming back to the beginning. We're comfortable with the 1.1. On the PPAs. The $60, $70s per megawatt hour is definitely something we're seeing in the U.S. I mean, that's, we're very comfortable with that. EUR 60, EUR 70 per megawatt hour in Europe, in Northern Europe is also something that we are seeing. In Southern Europe, it typically also has a higher resource, both solar and wind, probably more in the 40s. This is not anecdotal. This is concrete PPAs that we're signing and that we're locking in.
As I mentioned, we secured 1.5 gigawatts over the last 2 months, and these are the sort of the prices that we're seeing the sort of projects. This is obviously reflecting higher CapEx, higher cost of capital, but then you're having these higher PPA prices. I've talked about it on previous calls. We reverse engineer the PPA prices to make sure that we get the desired returns. You know, and then we go out and we market it at those prices, and we've been able to lock them in for with good customers, both corporates and also, you know, regional utilities, particularly in the U.S. It's definitely not anecdotal or it's very concrete, specific data points.
On the debt, Rui, do you want to comment a little bit more?
Thank you, Miguel. Hi, Alberto. On the debt, in December, when we presented the results, we had about EUR 1.1 billion of a positive impact in our net debt by then. This was about approximately EUR 0.6 billion as regulatory payables, effectively. EUR 0.5, so that was EUR 0.6, and then EUR 0.5 billion of working capital, so some cash anticipation from 2023 into 2022 that we also provided visibility.
As of March, this impact in our balance sheet has decreased significantly. It's approximately 0 right now. That's why we are booking or we're showing this EUR 1.1 billion of negative outflow in terms of regulatory receivables. This pace of reversion, we were expecting this to take, you know, to impact the first quarter because as the wholesale prices started to decrease throughout the quarter, that super APIC that is created between the wholesale price and the renewables tariffs that goes into the system, that positive delta started to reduce and, you know, the tariffs were fixed. We were expecting this to have this impact by the end of the first quarter.
Given that right now the regulator presented already the proposal for the tariff revision for the second half, in 2022, 2023, we see that what's being proposed, it will adjust the access tariffs to reflect the current wholesale market prices. This should be stabilizing the regulatory receivables. In any case, this only applies to the second half of the year. We are expecting to see some increase in regulatory receivables during the second quarter in 2023. What we are expecting is that this will still, you know, we'll see that increase. We should see sort of a more flattish into or settle into the second half.
We are also expecting that whatever, you know, deficit or deviations could be created, that we will also be working to securitize those throughout the rest of the year. Our expected, let's say our forecasted debt, for 2023 is around EUR 15 billion. That's really what explains the 1.1 delta that you see now in the first quarter.
Alberto, thank you.
Thank you, Alberto. Going to the next question on the phone from Javier Garrido, JPMorgan. Javier, please go ahead.
Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon. I think most of my questions have been answered. The only remaining question I would have is on the comment that Rui made on the call that the normalized contribution from the Iberia Hydro client and energy management business would be between EUR 0.3 billion and EUR 0.4 billion per quarter. I was wondering what is normalized. I mean, are you thinking of normalized as normalized contribution with power prices around EUR 100 per megawatt hour level, or normalized contribution with lower power prices in line to where we were before the Ukrainian invasion? Just wanted to understand what is the concept of normalized you are thinking of for this range. Thank you.
Hi, Javier, Rui here. Yes, I mean, normalized in the sense that production was also higher than what we were expecting. Also the fact that, you know, all in all from an integrated perspective, we are seeing a margin that should be reducing, I mean, on a normalized basis for the coming quarters. That's why I wanted to highlight so you don't take the EUR 0.63 billion as sort of a reference for what the normal quarter should be, and, you know, adjusting for volume and for the integrated margin more towards EUR 0.3 billion-EUR 0.4 billion.
I think I was in mute. Just thank you, Javier. Going to the next question from Jorge Guimaraes from JB Capital. Jorge, please go ahead.
Good afternoon. I have two questions, if I may. The first is if you can elaborate on the EUR 0.2 billion of hedging mark-to-market that you mentioned in the presentation. What is exactly this gain? The second one is if you see any risk for the takeout of the buyout of minorities in Brazil. The third one, probably the one where I'm most interested in, if you see the current trend rate of pumping in Portugal as sustainable, because there was no rainfall in Portugal in April, yet the reservoirs are stable month-on-month, and you are pumping a lot. As time goes by, the reservoirs will go down. How far can you sustain the current pumping level as the year progress? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Jorge. Rui, you can probably talk about the first one. I'll just give you some color on the buyout of Brazil, I think we can comment also on the pumping. Just in Brazil specifically, listen, we're very comfortable. I mean, if we think about, the current price is at around, well, we came out at 24 reais per share. Dividend adjusted, it's at 23.73 reais. The current market price is below that. It's at 22.58 reais, which is basically, let's say that value discounted for the Selic . I'd say, you know, it makes financial sense for the minorities to accept this offer, and we're certainly working on that basis.
I'd say the risk of not achieving this is low, or at least for a rational investor. We're confident about that.
In terms of the mark-to-market, will you understand that?
Sure. Hi, Jorge. The mark-to-market is really a year-over-year impact, so the EUR 0.2 billion is a year-over-year impact. Just to recall, in the first quarter last year, we booked EUR 80 million negative impact from mark-to-market, and that was related to the Cheniere contract, the gas contract, and an accumulated negative impact of approximately EUR 0.2 billion by the end of the semester. Since June, as you may remember, we start moving these contracts into hedge accounting. In the first quarter, we have no negative impact related to this to any mark-to-market, and we are benefiting from the higher gas margins, given the low sourcing costs that are booked in this quarter, and also related to the negative mark-to-market book last year.
The negative mark-to-market was because it was hedging, then we would see this positive impact in 2023, 2024. It was actually mostly in 2023. I mean, the 0.2 is a year-on-year and, of course, now we are seeing the margin, we're seeing the margin that, you know, the reversal of that negative impact. Concerning the third question on the pumping, I mean, I guess that what we are or what we have been doing is from an energy management perspective, given that we have a much more balanced position, then we can, you know, at some point, as we see the market price going down, we go short. Go short in the sense that we will stop producing maybe definitely the coal. We'll stop producing less or produce less gas.
We may reduce as well the hydro production, and ultimately also buying electricity for the pumping. That's something that has been managed very actively, over the first quarter and that active management will continue to happen throughout the remaining quarters.
Jorge, can I just add that we see this as sustainable, so also not just short-term, but mid to long term. One of the things you probably have seen certainly over the last two months is the duck curve, right, with more solar coming in and pushing the prices sort of midday. I think pumped storage is really coming in to its own now, and it's creating quite a lot of value as we've all been defending. We see this sustainable both in the short term, as Rui talked about, and also mid long term.
Thanks.
Thank you, Jorge. moving to the next question on the phone from, Manuel Palomo from BNP Paribas. Manuel, please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning, thanks all for taking my questions. Sorry to insist on the first one, but I'd like to ask a bit more on the hydro and on the hydro levels. We use this, previous analysts have been saying there's been a big recovery in the months of November, December, January. Since February, I mean, rainfall has been pretty scarce, I would say, all across Iberia. I wonder whether you could give us an indication on what is your better expectation about the hydro, about the electricity production from hydro in Portugal for the year 2023, given that, I mean, it's been pretty volatile in the last 3 years, 12 terawatt hours in 2020, 9 in 2021, and not even 6 in 2022.
If you could give us a view on what's your production expectation, that would be great. The second one is just a follow-up from one of Alberto's questions. He was asking about debt and about working capital. I was wondering whether you could give us an estimate on what is the level of taste that you assume for the year end. The last one in the EDPR presentation, I could see that the impact from non-cash items on the financial charges was in the region of EUR 35 million. I wonder whether you could quantify what was the figure for EDP in this first quarter. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Manuel. In relation to the hydro, yeah, as you say, very rightly, December, January, very wet months and, you know, huge buildup of the reserves. Then we've been managing that over the last couple of months. As Rui mentioned, this is actually, you know, we've actually, we managed to conserve a lot of water and just take the margin, buying it cheaper in the market. We're above the average for the year. For the rest of the year, we assume an average year. That's the typical. I mean, as you know, it's almost impossible to do any predictions really more than two weeks or so it's very volatile. I mean, we've looked at all types.
We could have almost a morning's discussion on predicting weather patterns and, well, whether El Niño will come back and the implications of that in the U.S. and then in Europe. I mean, we look at that. We have a great team for energy assessment which looks at that. Basically, bottom line is almost impossible to tell. The best predictor is to just assume the average for the rest of the year. There is more volatility, at least intuitively, it feels like there's more volatility, but around a, let's say, stable long-term trend. Anyway, that's certainly the case more for hydro because, as you know, wind and solar tend to be much less volatile than hydro. In relation to debt and the impact of non-cash, Rui.
Sure. Manuel, hi, it's Rui here. Just to be clear, I think the, your question was related, the second question was related to the level of the tax equity partnerships forecasted for 2023. Is that it?
Yes. Yes.
Okay. I mean, I would probably see it pretty much in line with what we have today. depending also, and increasing also with some of the wind farms that we'll be commissioning this year. Around this 1.1, commission this year. I would say excluding the plans that we are delaying for 2024, maybe an additional EUR 600 million, you know, give or take. From where we are today, an additional EUR 600 million. Yeah. Then related, the third question, and here, I think that you were referring to the negative impact on financial costs from Forex mark-to-market. Is that it?
Yes. That's it.
Okay.
Thank you.
Yeah. Basically the, what we have is on our net investment policy, we are, you know, of course, protecting our equity against FX variations. We are, you know, contracting forward forwards on the FX for the different currencies. But there will always be some inefficiency because at some point, we'll be rolling these forwards. There is a delta that is created by the difference between interest rates between Euro and the currency that we are covering. That delta, we need to mark to market that, and it goes into our books. You know, it's a non-cash item. It will be, you know, varying over each quarter. It will depend on the volatility of the different currencies versus the Euro, but is effectively that.
That's the, you know, in consolidated levels in the first quarter of 2023, we have about EUR 22 million coming from that. But it's the, you know, it will depend really on the evolution of the on the Forex on the different exchanges. But really it's just the consequence of having this net investment policy to protect the equity.
Okay. We can go to the next question from the phone. The next question comes from Fernando Garcia, Royal Bank of Canada. Fernando, please go ahead.
Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. Only two left for me. First, on the recurring tax rate of 31% in the first quarter, my question is if this is a good indication going forward as a set rotation. My second question actually is a couple of questions on regulation. Do you think that there is any read across from the Constitutional Court ruling on gas distribution about the Portuguese Extraordinary Tax for electricity? That will be my first question on regulation. The second one will be if you can update on the Portuguese Social Tariffs financing. Thank you.
Okay. Rui, do you want to take the first one?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yes. I think that, you know, in the tax rate for the year-end, we estimated to be around, you know, mid-twenties, as we've said this year, because of the impact from first quarter results coming from Portugal and Brazil, where we have the highest tax rates. That's where we get, land that into this, you know, 31%. If you exclude the 1.2% tax in Spain, this actually comes closer to 29%. As we move towards the year-end, we see, of course, an increased contribution coming from the renewables, from EDPR. Also, as you know, on gas rotation side, those typically are not, we don't put any taxes on those capital gains.
We expect the tax rate to come down. That's why, you know, we're guiding around the mid-20s.
Okay. On the regulation. In relation to the sales, the Extraordinary Contribution, what came out from the Constitutional Court, for those of you that haven't followed this, is really into the natural gas sector, and essentially it reopens the debate on the maintenance of this contribution, certainly over the short, medium, and long term. Essentially, what it says is that as of 2018, the extraordinary circumstances were no longer in place, particularly in relation to the gas. It makes no sense for them to be paying it when a big part of it was going into the electricity sector. It was being sort of put into paying down the debt of the electricity sector.
I think this, you know, we are looking at the arguments that have been used by constitutional courts, and we are looking at, you know, what should be our approach to this, whether it can be applied also to the electricity sector. We maintain, as we always have, that this is a tax or contribution which makes no sense. It disincentivizes investment because it's a percentage on investment, so the more you invest, the more tax you pay. It's not a good incentive for investment, and Portugal needs that. We've been, you know, it's been public that it would be reducing over time with the reduction of system debt. Two-thirds of this tax paid is going into paying the system debt.
We believe it makes sense and that it will happen at some point, that this will start to reduce, hopefully sooner rather than later. On the Social Tariff, 2 messages here. 1, as you know, we appealed to the European Commission. The European Commission said that we were right. I mean, we have no problem with the Social Tariff. We think it's fine and, you know, it's obviously government policy that we see a lot of merits in it. It should not be financed the way it's currently being financed, which is mainly by EDP in Portugal. As I said, the European Commission said that we are right. It should not be financed by EDP or mainly EDP.
You should either finance it through the government budget, or you should find an alternative way. For example, in Spain, this is done by socializing it between the different markets operators. The minister came out and said that they were looking at it and that they were going to review the financing scheme. Well, we expect that in the short term that this will be resolved and that there will be a fairer and more equitable way of financing the Social Tariff than the current one. Basically, that's what I'd say about that. Thanks.
Thank you, Fernando. The next and last question on the phone is from Olly Jeffery from Deutsche Bank. Oliver, please go ahead.
Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. A few different questions, please. The first one is, going back to, if you go back to the CMD and what's changed since the CMD, I'm just interested to understand how you've seen the kind of incremental changes on EBITDA. I know that you got the headwind and EDPR was moving, the 1 gigawatt of solar into next year. Is there anything else we should consider that's changed since the CMD in terms of your view on the incremental EBITDA change? I believe it's a slight negative, but if you're able to quantify that would be useful. The next question, just going back to the Cheniere contract, just to understand this.
The mark-to-market last year was EUR 200 million, which is meant to roll back, I think, 70% this year. Are you expecting anything else to roll back through the rest of the year, or is that now done? That would be helpful to know. The next question's on the normalized hydro. I didn't quite catch your answer. Did you say that you thought for the following quarters you'd expect EUR 300 -EUR 400 billion, or is that just in Q4? Just one more, which is on the asset rotation. I mean, I understand that, you know, you made it quite clear in the EDPR call that you're looking to do EUR 300 million, kind of irrespective of pricing this year.
I presume at the EDP level, that it's probably unlikely that you'll get through any rotations this year. To get an indication on whether it's, that's more likely 2024 event. Yeah, no, I'll leave it at that. Thanks very much.
Okay, Oliver. Thanks for the questions. In relation to the CMD, I mean, it was only 2 months ago, so I don't think anything structural has changed, really. I mean, You talked about the 1 gigawatt or 0.9 moving into 2024. I mean, you'll see some different moving pieces, you know, maybe the hydro in general has gone quite well. EDPR, a little bit less well for this year. Certainly we see 2024 and beyond as staying, you know, we're reaffirming the guidance. I mean, we see no reason to change what we talked about in the CMD just 2 months ago. On the Cheniere and normalized hydro, Rui, you can probably talk about, but maybe just... I didn't quite catch the 4th question.
The asset rotation, EUR 300 million, I didn't quite catch what was the 2024 event that you mentioned?
No, that was just to ask at the EDP level. Should our assumption-
Yeah.
-be this year that it's probably unlikely you'll do any rotations at the EDP level? I'm thinking of the transmission line in Brazil. My expectation, that's probably more of a 2024 event, but if you're able to comment on that either way, would be helpful.
Okay. Just before I turn over to Rui. On that, on the EDP level, I mean, we'll continue to look at different transactions, including, for example, as we've talked about, we'll be doing Pecém for sure. It's not exactly asset rotation, but just in terms of disposal of Pecém, probably hydro, some hydro in Brazil, you know, and anything else that feels attractive to us. In terms of the transmission line, I would say probably not a 2023 event. We can talk about that, maybe in future calls. As of today, we're not necessarily counting on it for 2023. We'll update you again, if you want, on the July call. In relation, Rui, if you want to take number two and three.
Sure. On the Cheniere, what we said in, like, also last year is that about 70% of those mark-to-market losses would be reverted through 2023 and the rest in 2024. What you're seeing now in the first quarter is really a part of that, you know, we'll see more coming through the rest of the year. Again, overall, for the losses that we booked in 2022 or the mark-to-market losses we booked in 2022, 70% of those should be recovered during this year. You know, to be clear, my normalized comment is more normalized first Q. As you know, typically on the hydro, first and fourth quarter are stronger. Second and third are typically not so strong.
I just wanted to make sure that, you know, as a first quarter result, EUR 0.53 billion, you don't take it as a normalized, first quarter. That would be more within the range of EUR 3.3 -EUR 3.4 billion.
Thanks. Then just one follow-up. On the Social Tariff, within the kind of the soft guide that, I know you haven't given a guide, but you've spoken about happy with consensus at 1.1, are you assuming that any of the Social Tariff comes off this year, or is that more mainly 2024?
We are assuming that they will find a model which is more equitable this year, and which probably reflects better something like the Spanish model. There's already built into that forecast some expectation of a change in financing, given that the minister and the European Commission have both been relatively clear about the need to do that. Yes.
Thanks very much.
Okay. We'll move now to a couple of questions on the web, from Jorge Alonso from SocGen, regarding the update on Brazilian assets potential disposals.
Well, yeah. Hi. Sorry, Jorge, it's Rui here. Just to be clear, Brazil, we are considering, you know, as of now, the sale of Pecém, the coal plant that is, you know, going as planned. We should be getting the binding offers over, you know, the second quarter or during the second quarter. Of course, we'll update you with that. We have the transmission lines that Miguel just said, we may update you as well, coming further into the, well, the next conference call, the results, the earnings call. Within the renewables segment, this is one of the countries that we are also assessing whether we do or not an asset rotation this year on the renewable space.
We have already, you know, started engaging with potential investors and, you know, we'll also update you as we, you know, go firmer into the process. Also on the hydro sale, I mean, this is something that we'll be preparing. As you know, we concluded the sale of Mascarenhas in December of last year. We know that we know at some point we'll, you know, also work on this potential sell-out. We'll provide you more color as these processes actually move forward. Thank you.
I think, the other questions that we have more or less they were mostly covered. If pending ones, we'll do follow-up, SIR level on that. I'll move now to our CEO for closing remarks.
Yeah. Thank you, Miguel. Listen, just very briefly, I think, you know, great start to the year. Very strong start on the hydro business, on the setting this up well for, you know, to achieve the consensus targets for the year. EDPR, a little bit slower. We've talked about that on the previous call, but everything else, I think going well. You know, I won't reiterate everything that we said, but I do think we have a very solid start to the year and that will continue to go well. We also have some visibility on April, which is also going pretty well. I'd say we'll update you again in July, but we are very comfortable with the consensus and with the targets. Thank you.