Hello, and welcome to the 9M 2022 EDPR Results Presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the presentation. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand over to your host, Miguel Viana, Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending EDPR's nine months 2022 results conference call. We have here with us our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, who will run you through the key highlights of our strategy execution and nine months 2022 results. We'll then move to Q&A, in which we'll be taking your questions, and this call is expected to last one hour. I will give now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade.
Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon, everyone. I hope you're all doing well. It's always a pleasure to speak to you. I'll kick off talking about basically updating on the strategy execution. If we move straight into the presentation and go to slide four, you can see that our nine-month performance for 2022 shows really a strong growth in EBITDA. It's up 62% year-on-year to around EUR 1.5 billion, and this has been very much supported by expansion of our asset base. We increased our installed capacity by 10% year-on-year, and the generation overall increases around 14% year-on-year. We also see a significant improvement in our average selling price of almost 30% year-on-year, supported by higher prices in most of the European markets and also some FX.
Finally, asset rotation gains around EUR 264 million, including the transaction in Italy, which was closed in September. Net profit increases 180% year-on-year to EUR 416 million. This is very much impacted by the higher financial cost, which is on the negative side due to higher interest rates. But obviously it also has a positive upside from the EBITDA that I mentioned earlier. Increase of debt and ForEx impact is partially mitigated by the asset rotation gains, and we'll talk about that later on in the presentation. In terms of the 2025 targets, both growth and value, on one hand we have gross investments reaching around EUR 4.4 billion. This is more than doubling last year's period.
This reflects the ramp up of our investment plan with renewable projects under construction is reaching a historic record of 4.3 GW over around 15 countries. Regarding asset rotations, if we look back to since 2021, we've already secured a total of nine transactions in six markets, and this represented total proceeds of EUR 3.4 billion. Over 40% of the EUR 8 billion total asset rotation plan that we had for this business plan period. Finally, we've secured, until now, almost 11 GW of capacity for this period until 2025, and that represents around 55% of the total target that we have for capacity addition. Again, continuing to move forward on track with that. Now let's dive into some of the key geographies.
If we move to slide five, we can talk about the Inflation Reduction Act. I mentioned this before, so actually last time we spoke, just over the summer, I think I mentioned at the time that we were not holding our breath for this to come out. Well, as fortunately, it did come out actually the day after we spoke, so there started being news on this, and this was finally approved during August. I'm sure all of you are aware of the legislation and aware of the impact. Let me just highlight a couple of key points. First, it brings 10 years of stability for renewables tax credits and fiscal incentives. I think that will avoid the stop and go and the sort of hesitation, let's say from the market in terms of investments.
I think that's good. It gives us a long runway to be able to invest in the U.S. over in renewables. The IRA also extends PTCs and ITCs into new technologies. For example, for solar, PTCs are also now eligible. This will provide better returns for some of the projects. In fact, most of the projects will be able to have some slight increase. The eligibility also depends on some labor and apprenticeship requirements, but which we are comfortable that we will be able to meet. Regarding new technologies, the IRA also has a new tax credit for standalone storage as well as an incentive for green hydrogen, which we think will also contribute strongly to the development of these technologies in the U.S.
Both storage and hydrogen I think get a good boost here, which will be positive, certainly for the U.S. and I think for the market and for ourselves. Finally, just an interesting point on the IRA. It introduces a new structure of the tax credit, so it adds a bonus rate to the base rate. There are essentially two types of bonus credits. One for domestic content, so the U.S. manufactured content, and another which is for projects located in certain disadvantaged communities, mainly those that are dealing with the impact of past and current fossil fuel extraction and pollution. For example, coal plants that have been shut down in the surrounding areas, if we build a project, we will be able to get an additional bonus credit. This is definitely positive for renewables growth prospects.
I don't think there's any question about that in the U.S., and as you know, the U.S. is a key market for us. We're present in 14 states. We have a long track record reaching all the way back to 2007. We have a significant pipeline of projects under development. The approval of the IRA really provides a stable long-term framework to support the renewables projects commercial activity going forward. I think we are well-positioned to capture that growth in the U.S. Let's move on to Europe. Now Europe, we've also spoken about this in the past, but it's the renewables growth potential is definitely being reinforced by the REPowerEU ambitious targets. Following the Kronos acquisition that we closed in October, EDPR's reinforced its presence also in these low-risk European markets, namely France and U.K.
We entered Germany and the Netherlands, so now we're in 12 European markets. These markets represent around 90% and 82% of the EU market growth potential for solar PV and wind capacity respectively. Clearly, we are in sort of all the major markets in Europe and able to capture that potential growth. Now, everything's not super rosy. There are obviously bottlenecks, and I think, you know, we've addressed these very specifically in the last couple of calls and sort of when we talk also to investors and government officials. Things like the length of the permitting processes, I mean, this has been a bottleneck. However, we are seeing some movement on this, some traction in trying to actually simplify.
We have the Easter Package in Germany, this was finally approved in July, that's got several initiatives to reach 260 gigawatts of renewables installed capacity until 2030. In Portugal, the Simplex, again, exceptional measures to accelerate renewables like streamlining permits. Another example is Italy. Energy Decree has introduced measures to simplify procedures, so these are positive steps, I think, to try and eliminate some of the bottlenecks. Obviously, these are only for a limited number of countries. I know that other countries are also working on additional measures, which really is obviously a key issue to be able to accelerate this. I'd say that over the next month or so, we should expect more news coming out of that to move forward with the project. Let's move on to slide seven.
Talking about capacity additions. Since our capital markets day back in February, we've increased by around 80% or almost 5 GW the secure capacity until 2025. We're now at the 55% target of our 20 GW that we had until 2025, and we continue to increase visibility and execution of the plan. We currently have almost 3 GW of PPAs under negotiation. We continue to accelerate growth across all platforms, so with 8 GW installed and under construction. We're adding up to 40% of the 20 GW target until 2025. As you know, some short-term challenges that we've had in 2022, namely in the U.S., have moved or transferred some of the projects from 2022 to 2023. I think we'd flagged that in previous calls and months.
To mention just a couple of the key ones, one in the U.S. has got to do with the supply chain delays and the regulatory uncertainty because of the anti-circumvention investigation and also the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. This has posed some challenges, and it's postponed some additions to 2023. We have expected additions to be above 2 GW in 2022. We've indicated 2 to 2.5. We should be above the two. I think coming up to the end of the year, relatively comfortable on that. We have 4.3 GW of projects under construction. That's a 1.1 GW increase over the last quarter. I think this will contribute to capacity additions both in the fourth quarter of this year, but primarily to 2023.
We are expecting more than 4 GW to be added in 2023, of which 3 GW are already under construction. I'd just like to highlight this because this means that 2023 will be an intense period, because you know we had around 4 GW of capacity on average being built. Just for the projects that we have projected for 2023, it will be an intense year of construction. I think it will also show really the ramp-up and what we are able to do with the team that we've been reinforcing. Also, in terms of the medium long-term renewables growth opportunities, I think obviously these are reinforced by the REPowerEU and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Not just the 24, 25 periods, but beyond, as I say, we are clearly working already on projects even beyond this business plan period. I think that's something that it's good to. You know, I've been traveling around a bit to the different geographies and to see the teams already building up that pipeline for the post-business plan period. We'll talk about that I'm sure at some other point. Ocean Winds. Ocean Winds, this has been really fantastic growth over the last year or two years. Ocean Winds has now reached a portfolio of almost 15 GW. It's more than doubled what we had at the beginning of 2021. We've had some important developments over the last couple of months.
First, Moray West up in Scotland, as you know, contiguous to Moray East, which is already operating. Moray West is already under construction. We expect that to probably be a 2024 project. We're coming in in 2024. We also have a smaller floating project in France, which is expected to close its financial close in that same month, and the equipment is also under construction. We already had a project here in Portugal, a floating offshore. We'll now also have one in France. In August, Ocean Winds was also awarded two new floating offshore projects in Scotland, so close to the Shetland Islands. That's more than 2 GW of potential capacity. In Poland, just this week, our 400-MW offshore project, BC-Wind, obtained its environmental decision.
I think that's also extremely positive news. Total portfolio as of September of 2022 included 1.5 GW of capacity in operation, 3.6 GW of projects under development with long-term revenues contracted, and almost 10 GW of projects under development with either seabed or connection rights secured. Ocean Winds is clearly becoming a reference in the offshore wind sector. Let's move on to asset rotations. Clearly, asset rotation program continues to deliver value in 2022. We're talking about EUR 3.4 billion of asset rotation proceeds secured over the last two years, representing over 40% of our EUR 8 billion target proceeds for 2025. I think it's important to highlight the following, and you can see that quite clearly on the graph. We've sold less than what we were expecting.
We sold 2 GW below the 1.4 GW per year that we assumed in the business plan. Yet we resulted in EUR 1 billion of total gains in this period, so exceeding my EUR 300 million per year, exceeding the target of the EUR 3 million per year. We reach an average of around five hundred million euros per or EUR 0.5 million per megawatt, so in terms of the multiple. Clearly, with a strong value creation, so 2x the guidance provided in the business plan. Selling fewer megawatts, but obtaining the same proceeds and much more gains per megawatt than what we had anticipated in the business plan. I think that's definitely good news.
If we move on to slide 10, just give you a little bit of detail on both the Italian portfolio and the Brazilian portfolio. In relation to the Italian portfolio, this was signed in July, closed in September, 172 MW of wind capacity, talking about a multiple of EUR 2.4 million per MW. The total asset rotation gain per MW of around EUR 1 million and a 65% gain over CapEx. Definitely the higher energy prices were a significant valuation driver in this portfolio. Generated more than 2x the thresholds and investment targets for the business plan. I think this is a great transaction and shows the value creation potential. Regarding Brazilian portfolio, that was signed now in October. We expect it to close before year-end.
Again, we're talking about a smaller multiple of EUR 1.3 billion. Still, we're expecting an asset rotation gain per megawatt of around EUR 0.6 million and a 60% gain over CapEx. I think it's important to note that this project had a very low, very competitive CapEx per megawatt. Yet we had a PPA price with which gave us, you know, our returns of over 1.4x on our WACC. Again, with this transaction, the multiple, the absolute multiple is lower, but the gain is extremely good, and we're expecting to generate 2x the investment targets for the business plan. Two good examples.
As I say, signed one in July, one now in October, so, you know, in the middle of the increase of interest rates, but showing that we have been able to create value with the projects that we are building and then selling. Two good examples. I think it shows in terms of diversification, both in terms of countries and technologies, that we are able to create value from these projects. Let's move on to talk a little bit about regulation in Europe. Here, just a couple of comments. Recognize that Europe has tried to create a transversal regulation, so trying to define a common toolkit, a common set of policies for the different European countries to react to the higher energy prices.
However, what we're seeing in practice is that the different member states are all going out on their own, and many of them are implementing their own, let's say, policies, their own measures. Policy aiming to provide stability for consumers, essentially through either higher taxation for companies or through caps. Europe defined a revenue cap at 180 EUR per megawatt hour, but the member states have the possibility of establishing lower levels, and that's what some governments are doing. Now, there are many differences between the different European countries, and I don't think it's worth going through all of them individually, but I would just highlight that definitely Romania and Poland, there is, or there are current legislative drafts on price caps and windfall taxes which do raise relevant concerns.
We hope that there will be a more balanced final outcome towards the end of 2022. I think over the last couple of days, we've seen some positive evolution, because quite frankly, what was coming out of both primarily Romania, but also Poland to a certain extent, was certainly not even really compatible with the EU directive. Included things like the legislation did not incorporate, for example, hedges in the calculations of the cap. I think it's just worth highlighting that because we are seeing quite a lot of different regulatory reduction or work going on in the different countries, and to just give you an overview of what's going on.
We move on to slide 12, and just talking about energy prices, because obviously that's also a key issue I think for everyone. Over the first nine months, we had an increase in the average selling price of around 29% year-on-year, obviously impacted by the higher prices in Europe for those, you know, projects that were more exposed to merchants. We expect this level of prices per megawatt hour to be maintained until the end of the year. That would be our view, our guidance for this. Regarding hedging strategy, we are optimizing it by reducing the volume of long-term contracts to around 90% in 2023, and then closer to 80% in 2024-2025 period.
As you know, we have a lot of it is still either fixed or hedged, but we are slightly increasing the exposure over this period. I think that should allow us to benefit from a favorable repricing as the hedges roll over. We move on to slide 13, and just before I turn over to Rui, just making a couple of comments on ESG. You've got here some of the key metrics, maybe just going through a couple of them. 100% of the eligible CapEx is aligned with the EU Taxonomy. Our core business is totally focused on renewables, avoiding emission of 50 million tons of CO2, that benefits obviously for the increase in the energy production and, you know, a good contribution to the global challenge of net zero.
In relation to circularity, we've improved our waste recovery ratio to 79%, mostly due to the recovery of turbine blades that had to be replaced. Again, good contribution to the circular economy target in the business plan. We continue to work with turbine manufacturers and other suppliers. I, you know, just based on recent meetings we had with them, we're quite positive that this will continue to, you know, develop favorably over the next couple of years. I think the whole value chain is aligned in trying to improve the circularity of what we use. On the social dimension, three key points. One, percentage of female employees increased to 34%. A 2% improvement versus the last year. I think definitely showing our commitment to equal opportunities and promoting diversity throughout the organization.
Regarding health and safety, we had an average of 2.3 work-related injuries per million worked hours. Unfortunately, this is not good, so this is obviously on a negative point. Health and safety, I've talked about this in the past, but it is a top priority for us. We are implementing a safety program called Play It Safe, which is transversal to the entire EDP Group, but obviously impacts EDP Renováveis. Its key objective is really to improve the company and its procedures focused on accident prevention. That's something that we have been very focused on. Regarding communities, just a small highlight. I mean, we've already contributed around EUR 1.4 million. This year-on-year variation is mostly relating to a donation we've made to support the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
Mostly through our operations in Poland and also Romania. Finally, just a quick note in terms of our governance. We've created an independent ESG committee led by our board of directors, chaired by the chairman of the board of directors. You know, we already highlighted the importance of corporate governance matters, so we're now extending it also to, let's say, all the remaining ESG dimensions. Regarding the social dimension specifically, we just recently approved our human and labor rights policy. You know, obviously we're committed to that through our code of ethics, but we've now made it much more explicit, just given the importance of this issue. You know, and we've also really increased the commitment to guarantee responsible operations throughout the whole value chain.
I think this is something that we're feeling, you know, throughout the sector, and it makes sense just to make it more explicit that we really take seriously all of our value chain in making sure that we are being responsible about how we manage that. I'll stop here. I'll turn it over to Rui for the next section, and then I'll come back again. Thanks.
Thank you, Miguel, and good afternoon to you all. I will now ask you to move into the nine months results. If we look to slide 15, I think it shows that EDPR continues to deliver a very solid operational performance, of course, on the back of a growing installed capacity. By the end of the third quarter, EDPR had a record capacity under construction with 4.3 GW under construction balanced between solar and wind. Therefore, this means that we are effectively evolving in terms of the portfolio diversification. During this year, we have installed 1.3 GW, so that's an additional 700 MW approximately just in Q3. Asset rotation amounted to 0.5 GW in Europe. Therefore, we arrive at a portfolio of 14.3 GW of installed capacity.
Also with a very balanced mix across North America with around 49%, Europe 38%, Brazil 8%, and APAC naturally already representing 5% of the entire portfolio. In the nine months of 2022, we achieved a sound operational performance with a 30% load factor. That's 1.3 percentage points increase versus last year. This reflects the renewables index in line with the expected long-term average gross capacity factor. Electricity output as a result of this increased 14% year-on-year, naturally also benefiting from the higher capacity additions. This compares with the nine months of 2021 in which renewable resources were 5% below the long-term average.
Effectively an improvement in terms of the resource, mostly wind, but also starting now to have an impact, a positive impact from solar. As a result, EDPR generated 24.4 terawatt-hours of clean energy in the nine months this year, therefore avoiding 50 million tons of CO2 emissions. If we now move to slide 16, as we look into the EBITDA, it increased 62% year-on-year to EUR 1.5 billion, with Europe representing 66%, North America 32%, and the remaining 2%, South America, APAC and others. I mean, all of them growing versus the nine months of 2021.
Our EBITDA was positively driven by 10% growth in installed capacity and a five percentage point improvement in resources year-on-year, which improved to be in line with the long-term average, as I mentioned before. 14% increase in electricity generation that was sold at an average selling price 39% higher year-on-year. Finally, as we closed three asset rotation deals in 2022, it generated gains of EUR 264 million. As we move now to slide 17 on the net debt, EDPR net debt is at EUR 5.6 billion and is well protected against interest rate rises with 65% of fixed rate and pricing mitigated by a pre-hedging strategy.
This was, you know, very important because we decided to pre-hedge our debt maturity over the next five years in a total amount of EUR 1.5 billion. Therefore, we have effectively eliminated the exposure to interest rate rises in this period as these have already been locked in in June. Now please note that we also fund our investments in local currency with US dollar-denominated debt representing 71% of our total debt and with an average cost of debt increasing two percentage points year-on-year to 3.7% for the nine months this year. Also regarding debt maturity, as you can see in the slide, more than 50% of our debt matures post 2025.
One final note, there is EUR 1 billion of variable rate debt that will be converted with EDP during the fourth quarter this year. As you may have seen, EDP just raised recently senior bonds about 1 billion, half in euros and half in U.S. dollars. It, you know, gives very clear visibility of the interest rates that we'll have to lock in the variable rate as we move into the fourth quarter this year. On the next slide, on slide 18, the net debt evolution, it is effectively driven by the expansion investments that we're having in installed capacity, the asset rotations, but also FX and others. As of September 2022, net debt was EUR 5.6 billion.
That's 2.6 billion higher than December last year, reflecting the EUR 2.5 billion in expansion investment. This includes, of course, CapEx, the acquisition of Sunseap, and the solar portfolio in Vietnam, and equity investments at the Ocean Winds JV, as well as the FX impact. This was compensated by asset cash flow generation and the asset rotation strategy, where the proceeds reached EUR 1.3 billion in the first nine months of this year on the back of the asset rotation deals that Miguel just presented before. All in all, the increase in net debt is supporting EDPR growth in line with the strong target additions that we have set forward for our business plan 2021 to 2025. On slide 19, net profit totaled EUR 460 million.
That's an increase of 181% year-on-year. This is supported by the top-line performance, partly offset by higher financial costs and non-controlling interest. Financial costs up by EUR 108 million, mainly due to the increase in net debt, the increase in average cost of debt year-on-year, and here some negative impact of the FX. On taxes, we have an effective tax rate of 13%. That's a reduction of four percentage points year-on-year. Just a final note on minorities, EUR 167 million, increasing EUR 79 million year-on-year, and that's definitely on the back of the good top line performance in the portfolio. In some of these assets, we do have some minority partners, and that's reflected here.
With this, I will conclude the financial section, and I would hand back to Miguel for closing remarks. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Rui. Just six quick comments, and then we can turn it over to Q&A. First, strong 9 months results, and that's driven by the generation increase of 14%, the increase in the average selling price plus 29%. That results in the overall EBITDA going up around 62% and the net profit, you know, going up to EUR 460 million. That's definitely positive. Out of the second point I would say is out of the 20 gigawatts, we've already have more than 40% installed or under construction and secured, we've already got close to 55% overall. The third point I'd say is that in terms of the asset rotation strategy, clearly showing a, you know, very strong upfront execution and continue to create value even in the most recent deal announced.
Reaching, you know, the more than EUR 300 million gain that we had in 2022. The fourth point is to say, you know, recognizing the interest rate increase, we think we are well protected with 65% fixed rates and pricing risk mitigated also by the pre-hedging strategy. I think that's something that we, you know, that EDPR has quite strong. The fifth point is saying that the growth outlook continues to be strong, meaning we are well positioned to capture it globally, you know, and already in many markets and in the key markets, we have been reinforced by the Inflation Reduction Act and being reinforced by the REPowerEU, strong tailwinds.
You know, that allows me to move on to the sixth point, which is really with this structural tailwind, which, you know, we talked about, which is clearly very favorable to renewables. Now, we need to deal with the regulatory uncertainty, but clearly EDPR is well positioned to capture this additional growth and to continue to create value. With that, thank you for attending this results call, and I think we can move to Q&A. Thanks.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question or make a contribution, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from the line of Javier Garrido of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Actually, we have two. The first one would be to have some updated views from you on the financing of your investment plan, given that bond yields have moved aggressively since the last call, and you are clearly implying that you see opportunities for further growth. How do you see the different inputs into your financing, asset rotations, equity that playing out? The second question would be if you could comment on the trends in the contracting with equipment suppliers, particularly if you could discuss if there are any changes going on with wind turbine manufacturers, if they are putting pressure to share a bigger proportion of risk on input costs with the developers versus what we have seen historically.
If you can comment on solar, whether you have seen any meaningful change in the bottlenecks in the supply chain in the last three months? Thank you very much.
Thanks, Javier. In relation to the investment plan, I think, you know, as we've shown, we are well on track, both in terms of growth, but also in terms of the financing. You know, I think the asset rotation strategy for us is obviously a key part of that. As you can see, that continues to do very well. I mean, we also raised equity last year and, you know, and so we think that the business plan to 2025 is fully funded and, you know, and we're comfortable with that. Between the cash flow, the asset rotations, I think we are okay with that. You know, and the fact that the bond yields go up, I mean, don't forget that also the energy prices are going up.
What's most relevant is really the ratios, net debt to EBITDA for net debt, you know, sort of to keep an eye on that. If both go up or if both are moving in tandem, then we should be okay. In relation to trends of equipment contracting, I'd say that. Well, I don't know if you also want to comment on this. Wind turbines, I mean, definitely they're going through a tough time. I think, you know, you guys all know that well, with negative EBIT margins, and so they've been pressured over the last couple of months or even years, just given a slight reduction in capacity in wind. I think also the dislocation in the commodity prices, which has squeezed them in terms of margins.
I think there's been a repricing to incorporate this dislocation in the commodity prices. You know, that obviously then has an impact on the LCOE, which we then pass on when we contract new PPAs. There is also discussion of risk sharing. I think that's, you know, a natural discussion. I think it can actually be positive for both sides, make sure we have a more, let's say, integrated approach to the project development. I mean, we want a successful and sustainable supply chain, and I'm sure they also want successful and sustainable, say, development part. I think we are aligned in making sure that we are having a good risk sharing and that we are able to really maximize the, let's say, the opportunities that are out there.
I think we're aligned in terms of those objectives. In terms of solar, I'd say that the key bottlenecks in solar are really primarily in the U.S. I think, you know, there's a short-term issue around solar, which has to do with everyone stopping and pausing while we try to get more clarity on the anti-circumvention investigation on one hand. Now an increased scrutiny and necessary, you know, it's necessary to do an additional certification of the panels going all the way back to this polysilicon, making sure it's not produced in Xinjiang. That's producing additional administrative and bureaucratic burden, which has really slowed down the imports of panels into the U.S. But I'd say that's a short-term issue, which will solve itself.
It does have delays or it doesn't mean delays in the project, but it's something which will sort itself out. I think there's a more medium- to long-term discussion around supply chain for solar in the U.S., which has to do with moving the supply chain back to the U.S., you know, and driven by incentives from the IRA. If you, as I mentioned, if it's domestically produced, you get a bonus. I think there will be an incentive to scale up the manufacturing of the supply chain of solar in the U.S. I think we'll see that sort of in the medium- to long-term, and that's something that we obviously need to be mindful about. I don't know, Rui, if you also want to comment.
Well, yeah, maybe just a couple of comments on the, I guess, Javier, the question is also about indexation on the turbine prices. I mean, just the answer is that yes, I think that we'll have some indexation, which is good effectively, because even though the fuel prices, for example, which is a big indicator in the turbine price, came down significantly. I mean, if you look at the last 12 months, you know, you will see that there is a big reduction, you know, around 40% reduction over 12 months here in Europe and in China, but even higher in the U.S., on fuel prices. That means that, you know, by having this indexation, of course, we would also benefit from that further reduction.
There is a discussion also to be held with some of the PPA of third parties because some of that indexation actually can be shared as well. Yes, I think that's something that we should, you know, pursue going forward. Pricing on the solar PV, and as Miguel said, I mean, in the U.S., given the, you know, the restrictions, we are not expecting any, you know, decrease in the short term. Elsewhere, what I have to say that, I mean, we have seen sort of a stability in the polysilicon prices, and therefore from that angle, we should expect as well a stabilization on the panels, free on board. Transportation costs reduced significantly.
You know, we were, I would say again one year ago, we would be seeing container prices, actually in some cases reaching, you know, above $15,000 or $20,000. But nowadays they are back to a more normal, you know, range, and therefore, the cost of transportation is coming down back to the sort of a $0.008 per watt. This is impacting positively the overall CapEx. Again, I think it's still too early to say that we are seeing this as a, you know, a further downward trend on the CapEx.
I would say at least stabilizing and with some signals that, you know, some parts of the CapEx could have, you know, some alleviation as we go forward and some of the supply chain, you know, the constraints get solved. Also transportation-wise, we would see 100 days of transportation now going back to 30 days. I think they are improved in some areas.
Yes. Thanks very much for all the details. Thank you.
The next question comes from Manuel Palomo of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon. I've got three questions, if I may. First of all, it's on the evolution of the debt. Currently, you've got 35% variable debt, 65% fixed debt. I wonder whether you could tell us what you think is the longer term ideal structure and on the debt. Given that you referred that part of the floating debt will be somehow adjusted to these EDP bonds, that if I recall, were at below 4% for the euro tranche and above 6% for the U.S. dollar tranche. I wonder whether you could tell us what you think will be the impact on the evolution of the cost of debt for the year 2023.
I've got a question on the average selling prices, particularly for 2023. Given that maybe there's a bit higher merchant exposure, but also that I understand that a lot of the hedges are going to impact positively prices. I wonder whether you could tell us best guesstimate of what you think the price for the year 2023 will be on average. Thank you.
Okay. Well, on the first one, I'm afraid I was not hearing completely, but I just understand that, you know, you're asking about the floating versus fixed and how we're thinking about the cost of debt evolving for 2023.
Mm-hmm.
Yes, I mean, just to be clear, this, on the fixed part of the debt as of today, as we are, you know, refinancing this debt with, because we have these maturities that go in 2023, 2024, 2025. What we did back in June was that we pre-hedged EUR 1.5 billion of debt. Basically, back in June, we fixed approximately $1 billion in dollars at 2.6%. That's a five-year for five-year. Then, EUR 0.5 billion at 1.8%. Basically, as now debt matures in, you know, in the forthcoming years, we have already fixed the yields for this re-maturity.
Basically we are, you know, effectively not exposed to the current yields for the refinancing of this EUR 1.5 billion.
As for the floating component, we will be closing one between EDPR and EDP $1 billion. It will be mostly dollars, as you know, in the fourth quarter. That, of course, will be based on the last senior bonds that EDP issued in the market, the $500 million and the EUR 500 million at 6.3% dollars and the 3.875 in euro. That will be the basis for the pricing of this floating to fix that we will do in the fourth quarter.
Manuel, you had a question I think was on the pricing on the energy prices going forward. We've talked about until the end of the year. In relation to 2023, I mean, what's fixed? What is still merchant? I mean, assume market. In other words, I wouldn't give you any specific price just because there's so much volatility going on. You know, probably your guess will be as good as mine in terms of the energy price for next year. That's probably what the guidance I give. I mean, if you look at the markets at the moment, it's obviously positive and higher than what it is at the moment for sure. I'm sorry, higher than what we had in the past, for sure.
If I may ask a follow-up here, I was rather than referring to the merchant portion, I was referring to the hedged portion because I understand that you know what is the evolution of the hedgings and what could be the impact on the average selling price.
The component which is hedged is also higher than our current price. In relation to EDPR, we're not giving out the specific numbers. You can assume it's a higher price than what we have. For the portion which has been hedged in, let's say, the recent past, because obviously we have long-term PPAs and those are not. Those don't vary. They are what they are.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Alberto Gandolfi of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions, good afternoon to you. My first question is similar, but I was wondering when we look at the relationship between marginal interest rates and returns, considering the expensive green bonds we have seen in the U.S., considering, you know, the cost of that in Europe, besides the short-term refinancing you may have to do, I'm thinking you're going to stay negative cash flow for quite some time because you're growing so much. I guess my question is, in your PPA negotiations, in your auctions, are you seeing prices going up to reflect higher marginal borrowing costs? And clearly it's early days because half of the move happens in SOFRs. I was wondering, are you already seeing that?
How many euros per megawatt-hour do we need to see to compensate a 200-300 basis points increase in cost of borrowing? You know, you talked about 3-5 euro per megawatt-hour to offset the CapEx cost inflation. I wonder if you can quantify. I mean, we've done our calculations, but, you know, if you can tell us your view about it, that would be the first question. The second question is, again, going back to capital structure. It's a great problem to have. It's a quality problem to have the fact that you are already outperforming your own business plan. Not many companies can claim they're doing that, you know, despite of the issues with bottlenecks and permitting and what have you.
Obviously this is coming though at the cost of a rising net debt to EBITDA or at least to stay in a relatively elevated level. You know, if I look at it before any capital gains, you are on about 5x. Distorted or not by offshore, I would argue this type of leverage is higher than peers. Given the increasing rates, given the potential pressure on come down exit multiples, I wonder why not taking a short-term, a bit more painful approach of raising equity or suspending dividend until the credit markets normalize a little bit? Because I agree, if you generate a return above WACC, you should continue investing even if rates have gone higher.
I wonder, isn't there maybe short-term pain to take here, to have a bit of a medium longer-term brighter future? The last question is, considering the timing of disposals and additions is always a bit tricky, I know you're going to update us next February, March, but can you tell us net addition that you expect to have at least in 2023, and if you could push it to 2024? You know, not the gross one. I see that you have outstanding capacity under construction, but what would be net? Thank you so much.
Thank you, Alberto. Let me try and answer your three questions. In relation to the first question, I'm glad you asked that, today, or at least we're having the call today, because just over the last couple of days, I've seen three PPAs for, you know, in some cases, 9% cash yields, in the U.S. with PPA prices of $50-$60 per MW hour. You know, I think that gives me quite a lot of comfort that we are seeing a repricing of the projects to incorporate the increase in cost of capital. I'm glad you asked the question.
We didn't talk obviously before, but I think I can quite comfortably answer that we are seeing that repricing and it is, let's say, it does give us confidence on that, on the business going forward. And as I said, three, you know, very credible offtakers, very credible projects. You know, and fully compliant with our investment metrics. I think that's good, you know, incorporating also the most recent CapEx estimates and everything. I think that's good news. As I say, if we've spoken maybe a week or two weeks ago, I would not have those data points. As of now, I do. On the second one, listen, as you say, we are performing the business plan, point one. Debt, Rui has already talked about.
I mean, we have, you know, short-term, sometimes volatility in debt from quarter to quarter. We need to think about this on a medium-term basis, and so how our ratios evolve over the medium-term. In that sense, you know, as long as we're meeting our business plan, both in terms of EBITDA and in terms of net debt, we should not worry too much about the short-term or let's say the quarterly volatility on those ratios. What I'd say is we have, you know, a fully funded business plan. We obviously are outperforming on the asset rotation, as you say. We will update you at the beginning of next year, you know, and obviously then give you more visibility on capital structure and so forth.
You know, as of today, it's. I don't think it's the quarterly volatility on net debt to EBITDA that would make us take, you know, an important decision or a serious decision like the ones that you suggested. Fully funded business plan, we're comfortable with it. On the third point, I don't have the specifics. Maybe you can then follow up. I mean, as I mentioned, we're doing over 4 GW next year. We don't have closed the asset rotations, so that's something we would basically do over the course of next year. As I say, we are already quite well ahead, or we're already at 40% of our total asset rotations. We'll obviously have additional product next year to sell. On the growth side, you can assume the 4 GW plus.
Let's say on the asset rotation side, I don't know, you can take some proxy maybe of what we've done in recent years. I'd say that's probably the best guess that I have at the moment.
This is very clear. Thank you so much.
The next question comes from the line of Jorge Guimarães of JB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. I have three questions, if I may. The first one is related to the impact of rising interest rates on your asset rotation program. If you are already feeling any reduction in terms of volumes and/or prices. Sorry to be so detailed on this, but this has been a very important driver for the stock price lately, so it's important to have your opinion on this. The second one, it's related to the permitting process in Europe. Is this permit acceleration still a desire for European authorities or already something that it can be felt on the ground? The final one is related still to the asset rotation program.
From looking at your presentation, I get the idea that you are guiding for full year gains of EUR 430 million or close to EUR 500 million if the deal in the U.S. is still closed this year. If you can comment on these numbers, or to clarify if the U.S. Is still in 2022 or not. Thank you very much.
I can definitely, you know, take the asset rotation. I mean, the first is that the interest rate environment, we have seen it, you know, going up very rapidly through the year. What we presented also in this presentation is that those transactions that were signed already this year and not very far ago, I mean, they were signed with a very interesting multiples, both in Europe and also in Brazil. Brazil has been suffering from high interest rate environment even earlier than in the EU and the dollar.
This also shows that there are other elements that investors are looking for, either the exposure to the ESG or to the quality assets that we build, and of course, valuing the, you know, some scenarios in terms of power prices on the merchant component of these projects. Therefore, we're actually able to achieve, you know, very strong valuations. My only point being that we know that, you know, with higher interest rates, everything else being equal reduces the value of the asset rotation. We are seeing other elements, both on the demand side, on the quality side, and also on the valuation side, that are still supporting the very strong multiples for these transactions.
Just to be clear, on the asset rotation gain for this year, likely to be above EUR 400 million for sure. The U.S. transaction is expected to close by the end of this year. According to contracts, we may book 100% or less than 100%, depending on some of the CPs. In any case, we expect that to be closed by the end of the year. That gives us, you know, more than EUR 400 million, but I would say there. Jorge, perhaps to answer your question was on the permitting in Europe and whether we're seeing additional progress there. I think people have this, you know, or the politicians, they clearly recognize that this is an issue.
They are, you know, very busy trying to deal also with the issue of the energy prices. I think it's one of those cases where the urgent versus the important is happening. They are focused on the urgent issue of how to manage the high energy prices and mitigate the impact on consumers. They need to also dedicate themselves to dealing with the important issues of how to simplify the permitting and licensing processes so that actually can have a more structural solution to the energy problem in Europe. I think people have got that. As I say, some governments have already moved, others are moving. You know, we should see progress over time. I think one of the key things that we see is that the public administration authorities are swamped in projects.
They're swamped in requests for projects. It's not like, you know, people aren't asking for interconnection, or they're not asking for the licenses or permitting. It's just that, you know. I give this example, and maybe I'm repeating myself, but, you know, I was in the U.S. just a couple of weeks ago and talking about MISO, one of the U.S. regions. Just in September, there were 170 GW of requests for interconnection. This is for a region which has 120 GW of peak demand. The question is, if you're a public administration official and you're sitting there and suddenly you get GW of requests for interconnection, how do you do triage on that? How do you deal with that?
I think that's, you know, the key issue that various public administrations, whether it's in the U.S. or in Europe, are dealing with, is how to sort through, sort out the garbage from speculators from, you know, what are credible projects and credible companies. That's the challenge. I'm not saying it's easy to solve, but look, I think that's the key challenge, really, to get it done. I hope that answers your question.
Thank you. It does.
The next question comes from Arthur Sitbon of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for taking my question. The first one is again on asset rotation, actually. I was wondering if ever we have the premium to CapEx dropping below the 35% level, which is your NPV to CapEx target. I was wondering if in such case you would have to give up on your asset rotation strategy. If it is the case, then would you just look for other financing option, potentially equity, or would you have to reduce your growth? I understand this can be a bit of an extreme scenario compared to the valuations you secure now, but I was interested in your thoughts.
My second question is just that I've noticed that the other division is quite strong in the third quarter, both in revenues but also in associates. I was wondering if we could have a bit more details on that to understand where it's coming from. I was wondering if you would be confident to reach a net income above EUR 800 million in 2022, given what you've managed to do so far this year. Thank you.
Okay. On I'll take the first one and the third one, and if we can take the second one. On the asset rotation, trying to answer your question, if the premium for CapEx dropped below 25%, would we drop the asset rotation strategy? I mean, if we're still creating value, 25% is when we invest, we don't have a metric for when we divest. As you say, we seem to have quite a lot of buffer in some of these projects, but that's not, let's say, the guiding principle. As long as you're creating value, and we don't have a specific metric for that, we'll also look at, you know, what it's doing to our balance sheet.
Is it helping us also, are we creating value and then being able to reinvest that into new projects where we will also create value? I think that's the way we think about the asset rotation strategy. As you say, I don't see a scenario where we would drop it. I think, you know, we can adapt it, we can adjust it in terms of pace. We have front-loaded quite a lot of it, which is good. We can adapt it. I don't see us completely dropping it. In relation to your third question on net income, it seems high, to be honest. We don't give specific guidance as you know, it's fairly pure renewables, but I would just say that.
Arthur, on the other division, I mean, it does include an intragroup transaction with the European platform. Basically, on a presentation, we actually allocate that number into the European platform numbers, but also includes, and this is quite relevant, the contribution from Ocean Winds profits that were high in nine months of 2022, given of course, the exposure it has currently to merchant U.K. That's primarily it. We can go to the last question, please.
The next question comes from Jorge Alonso of Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon to everyone. Yes, still a couple of questions, please, on my side. I would like to ask about the annual installation going forward, because, you know, the 2025 target on the 20 GW gross, if you are about to install 2 GW this year, 4 GW next year, that means that you will be installing 5.5 in 2024 and 2025.
I was wondering if you are thinking that this will be fully organic or if you think you could make some acquisitions, and what would be the catalyst or what would really make the step up in the annual installation considering that already putting 4 GW in 2023 is going to be a challenge. Just to understand what are the dynamics that will make you to put 5.5 in each of those years. The next question is related to Ocean Winds. I've seen that you have, or in the CapEx, there is EUR 600 million contribution for Ocean Winds.
If you can provide your view about what could be the annual contributions to Ocean Winds in the next couple of years, at least, to just take into consideration. The last one is if you can provide some kind of guidance about the net debt for the end of 2022. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Jorge Guimarães. I'll take the first one, and maybe you take second and third one. On the annual installation, what we said, we'll do more than two this year, and we'll do more than four next year. We think we won't need to do necessarily the 5.5, but that's not necessarily the point. I think given what we've seen today, we think that the over 2 this year and the over 4 next year, we would be quite comfortable with that because, as I say, most of it is already under construction for 2023. In relation to 2024/2025, as I said, we are ramping up and already in the original business plan.
Last year, that we were already expecting to ramp up above, let's say the 4 on average, so we're already going to be close to the 5 in the back end of the project of the business plan. I think that that's something that structurally we would have going forward so that we would be able to go above the 4 per year. We have been getting the team together, so I think, you know, that is definitely we have grown also a number of people. We have, you know, in the different markets, but I say we're quite comfortable in relation to the team we already have for delivering the 2023 numbers. Then it's just a question of continuing to scale it up to deliver.
If you think about it in percentage terms, I mean, it's in the past decade, from 2010 to 2020, we're building around 800. Last year, we did 2.6. As I said, this year, for specific reasons we talked about, it should be above 2, but and next year 4. In percentage terms, the jump is less than in previous. Going from 800 to 2.6 was already, you know, multiplying by more than three times. Going from the 2.6 to 4, you're already not even doubling it, and going from 4 to 5, okay, that's an additional 25%. I think the challenge, you know, we've already gone through the bigger bit, you know, worst part in terms of the, let's say the growth part.
In terms of Ocean Winds and guidance, would you want to comment on that?
Sure, Neil. Thank you. Jorge, thank you for the question. On the Ocean Winds, I mean, what the guidance we gave at the capital markets today was that for the period 2021 to 2025, out of the EUR 19 billion of gross investments, from at the renewables level, about 3% would be to be offshore. I would probably say more towards the 500. You know, more or less what we are, you know, spending this year. That, but again, I think that, you know, if you take the few percent of capital allocation of the EUR 19 billion for the period, it's probably, you know, a good number.
On the net debt, again, we don't provide specific guidance, but at least I could say that I should expect somewhere below where we are today. A little bit below where we are today.
With this, we will hand it over now to our CEO for some final remarks.
Thank you. I mean, essentially just wrapping up as I finished the presentation. You know, it's been a strong nine months. I think we continue to do well and deliver, trying to front load as much as possible the business plan, and I think that was done. Particularly an important part of it, which was the asset rotation program, because I think, you know, taking advantage of the lower interest rates. Going forward, you know, we've been delivering good, let's say execution. Part of it moved from 2022 to 2023. As I say, we already have a, you know, all-time high under construction of around 4.3 GW under construction, and we will be bringing on additional MW into construction over the next couple of months.
Tailwind's good, obviously some bottlenecks that we need to sort out. You know, I think those are all solvable problems. I think, so we continue to see both the sector and EDPR continue to scale up over the next couple of months and years. I'm sure we'll be talking again soon, sort of at the beginning of next year on the, well, not just for EDP results, but also the EDPR results, for the full year numbers. In any case, if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Thanks very much, and have a good rest of the day. Take care.
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