Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for all that are attending the EDP Capital Markets Day 2023, either here in the room or via the webcast. We'll be presenting how EDP plans to contribute to the energy transition and at the same time creating value to all our stakeholders. In terms of the agenda of the event, so we'll have a first part of a presentation in which our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade, will be presenting our strategy and outlook in terms of business platforms for the business plan period and vision for 2030. We'll pass to our CFO, Rui Teixeira, which will go through the financials of the plan and how do they work, and finally coming back again to Miguel Stilwell for the final remarks.
We'll have a second part covering Q&A, in which we'll be getting questions both here from the audience in the room, but also written questions that you can place right now at the webcast in the platform. The event should last altogether something between two and a half hours. Without further ado, I'll pass now to our CEO to start the presentation. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome everyone in this room, but also those of you that are watching us online virtually. I think it's good to see a lot of familiar faces. I think last time we presented a strategic update was two years ago when we were still in the middle of the COVID pandemic. It was all done virtually for those of you that remember that. It's great to be here today. Wanted to thank obviously all the investors that are following us, also all the analysts that have been following us, the EDP journey over the last couple of years. I think we've been working hard not only to deliver, and we talked about the 2023 results earlier this morning, but we also wanted to talk about the prospects going forward. How we take EDP along this journey.
Special word to João Talone , our EDP Chairman, also to my colleagues on the executive board that are here and on the management team of EDPR. I think it's really a privilege to work with such talented people and such a talented team, and I think that's really one of the things that differentiates EDP from many of the other companies. I'd start off by saying this is a great time to be in this sector. I truly believe that. I think we truly believe that. I'd say that we see two key things. One, the world is changing. It's changing very fast. It's been very volatile, certainly over the last two years. We see inflation, we see higher interest rates, we see volatility, we see supply chain disruptions. That's here to stay.
I mean, we believe that certainly over the foreseeable future, volatility will be here. We need to cope with it. We need to have a resilient business plan, a resilient company. Our sector is also changing. There is this need to drive the energy transition to have more energy independence in, for example, places like Europe, certainly in the U.S., to have affordable energy. All of that is going to require a massive amount of investment. That is, I think, where we come in, where we can add value by contributing to adding this investment, which is being done at a time when we are seeing much higher returns than we are seeing in the past. I think we see substantial investment opportunities, certainly going forward over the next couple of years.
I think I'm personally both excited but also optimistic for what we'll have going forward. If I had to summarize perhaps the business plan and before I even get into the slides, and I haven't even started passing any slides, but if I had to summarize since some of that information is out there, I'd say perhaps five key things. First, we're accelerating our commitment to renewables, to the energy transition, also networks and clients. We think it's a good time to invest. The returns that we will be locking in at this point in time with higher cost of capital will be good projects, good PPAs for the next couple of years. The second is that we're anticipating the financial targets that we'd set out in the previous business plan back in 2021 by more than a year.
In 2023, we will exceed the target that we had set back then, and we expect to exceed the 25 targets in 2024. This shows a good acceleration of the business plan, and we are then extending the business plan out to 2026. As you know, that's not many companies are currently doing that, but we are projecting that a further year past 2025- 2026. Committing to improving the targets that we're setting out here versus the previous plan. The third point is that we're taking EDP Brazil private. I'll talk quite a bit more about that, but we believe there's a strong industrial rationale for that. It's earnings accretive, it's value creating. It's also we're putting an attractive price for minorities.
At the end of the day, we think it'll be a win-win, operation, and we think it'll be bring simplification also of our operations in Brazil. I'll get to that also in a moment, but we see that clearly as making sense for the company. The fourth point I'd say, and that's particularly important in the times we're living, is to have an absolute commitment to the BBB rating. That's a red line for us. For those of you that are from the credit rating agencies, I can see some of you. That is a commitment for us, and we are absolutely, set on doing that.
To finance this growth, to finance taking EDP Brazil private, we're doing two equity raises, one at EDP, which is already more than 60% subscribed by institutional investors, and also one at EDP Renewables, which is already fully subscribed by GIC, who have already seen the announcement that came out earlier today. Both of those capital raisings allowing us to support the growth. Allowing us to support taking EDP Brazil private and ensuring we keep a solid balance sheet so that we can ride out these volatile times. The fifth is we will be increasing the dividend. With the we are having the payout ratio 60%-70%, and we see that we will be able to have stronger dividend payments over the next couple of years. This is natural, which will follow the increase in the net profit.
We are expecting double-digit growth in net profit, and that should obviously translate then into good dividend payouts. In a nutshell, as I say, before I even get into the slides, I think just to keep that in mind, I think EDP is a great investment opportunity. I mean, certainly it's in a great sector, fast-growing, a lot of good investment opportunities. I think with the strong support of investors, with the commitments that we've already seen, there's no doubt that we will be successful. I think the team is highly motivated, really enthused in executing and delivering on this business plan going forward. I think that's one of the key messages you have. You didn't have to get the CEO doing top-down, we've got to reach these targets.
This was a bottom-up approach, and I think the team here is absolutely committed to making sure that we get that done. All right. Getting into the presentation. I'll talk a little bit about what we're seeing in the overall macro world, some of the key highlights, and I'll talk also about our platforms, the different business units, Miguel already mentioned, and Rui said our financials, and then just some closing remarks. I'm just going to show this slide. I think you know it, but I think this is basically to say that major push for driving the energy transition continues to be there. It's very present when we think about, for example, Europe, or think about the U.S. in terms of pushing that sort of green transition.
What I'd say is that apart from the need to battle climate change, and that's been a big push over the many, many years, over the last couple of years. What we've seen is that certainly the last 12 months, if not to say sort of the last 18 months, we've seen a lot of changes in the global dynamics. We've seen gas flows into Europe decrease dramatically, as you know, because of the terrible war in Ukraine. That's had a major impact on Europe. We've seen an increase in energy prices globally, whether it's gas, but whether it's oil, whether it's electricity prices. That's been also something that's been very present. Inflation, higher interest rates. From a macro perspective, that's also been the big disruption over the last 12 months.
Supply chain challenges, that's also been something which has become more present over this period, increasing CapEx costs. We've incorporated, obviously, all of these dynamics and we recognize that. I mean, we are perfectly conscious about what's going on in the world, and that's why we've also designed this business plan to on one hand, drive growth, but at the same time, make sure that we can navigate through these different challenging dynamics. I think the only thing I'd say is that all of this has just reinforced, and we believe that the need for energy independence, affordable energy and reliable supply chains. That's something that has become very, very clear over the last 12 months. Now, this is not just, it's not just us that are seeing this. I mean, the whole sector is seeing this.
I think governments are seeing this, certainly even sort of regions like Europe are seeing that. We can talk about the U.S., we can talk about the Inflation Reduction Act. I mean, I truly believe that's one of the most consequential pieces of legislation tackling climate change that has come out probably ever. Very simple, very powerful, very clear, sending very specific messages in terms of driving the renewables, but also moving the supply chain to the U.S. I'm not going to get into detail on all the issues around the tax credits and the, and the way it works. I'm sure most of you know that. What we are seeing is that certainly impacts some of the profitability positively in the short, medium term. Then we think it will drive further growth from 2025 onwards.
As people like ourselves ramp up the investments, as they ramp up the development of the pipeline, those are projects that will start coming in towards the back end of the project of the business plan. In Europe, REPowerEU, again, came out just shortly after the war in Ukraine, and we've seen additional measures being taken by the European government, whether it's the Green Deal, the industrial plan, whether it's a reflection on the market design, where what we know so far, and we can talk about that as well. Is basically that how do you accelerate, how do you create sort of an environment where you can have more PPAs, where you can have more penetration of renewables. Asia-Pacific, again, huge, massive area of the world in terms of energy consumption and growth.
We are seeing more and more renewable targets also being set up there, and so I think we've already positioned ourselves there as well. There are still challenges. There are challenges certainly in terms of ensuring that we have predictable, stable regulatory frameworks. That's something that we've been certainly fighting for. I think the whole sector has been challenging the European Commission and other places on making sure that's in place. Simplifying the permitting processes, that's true in Europe, it's true in the U.S. as well. How can we accelerate projects can take four or five or six years to be developed. They need to be done on a two, three-year maximum. That is being tackled on a country-by-country basis. Europe has already given some guidelines. We are beginning to see specific countries also move on that aspect. The interconnections as well.
That's an important part that also will be necessary to drive growth of renewables. On this point, I'll also talk a little bit in a little while about how we can take advantage of the fact we already have a large installed base to leverage on those interconnection points. Summarizing all of this, I think are good structural tailwinds for investment in the renewable sector, and that's something that we will continue to bet on. This is an interesting graph just because two years ago, we showed some numbers about what was expected by the International Energy Agency in terms of growth of renewables, growth of DG, batteries, networks. On the left-hand side, you can see what was the targets two years ago, and now you can see the targets that are the most recent targets. In all cases, increases of 30%, 70%, 40%, or doubling.
30%, 70%, 40% or even doubling the case of the networks investment. We are clearly seeing increased targets just over the, these two years. For us, and just summarizing it, let's say on one slide, some of the key messages, we are expecting EUR 25 billion of gross investment over the next four years, around 4.5 GW per year. This will ramp up. I'll show you in a little bit more detail, but we'll ramp up from about 4 GW to 4.8 GW, sort of towards the back end. Overall, 50 GW by 2030. That's something that we think is achievable, if we continue to ramp up. We are reaffirming also some of our ESG credentials in terms of being coal-free by 2025 or green by 2030.
An important point as well will be net zero by 2040, and this has already been certified by the Science Based Targets initiative, which as you know, actually validates scientifically, so it's not just greenwashing. This is specific targets that have been validated by that organization. On the balance sheet, as I mentioned, the BBB rating, the 20%-21% FFO/Net Debt for 2026, which is obviously a solid ratio. Having a significant part of our EBITDA and investments in highly rated markets, whether it's Europe or in the U.S. In terms of value creation, we're expecting to grow substantially our EBITDA and our net income, so our net income on a double-digit basis compounded over the next four years and with a revised dividend floor by 2026 of around EUR 0.20 . Let's get into a little bit more specifics.
You'll have seen the announcements earlier this morning, or some of you may have seen that, which are just some of the key highlights. Actually giving you some of the specifics. In the previous business plan, we had around EUR 4.8 billion per year. We're increasing that by around 30%. One of the things I mentioned is that CapEx per MW has increased. To do the megawatts, you need more CapEx. I think one of the interesting things, though, is that the returns is on euros. It's not on megawatts. That's something also to keep in mind. It's you're investing and you're getting the returns based on the overall investment. The total of EUR 25 billion, as I mentioned, a big chunk of it is in renewables, clients and energy management, around 15% in electricity networks.
In terms of the mix, as you can see, a balanced mix between Europe and North America, South America, primarily Brazil, and then around 5% growing in Asia-Pacific. This ramp up, as I mentioned, we've been doubling every couple of years. We went from building around 700 MW per year between 2010 and 2020. That doubled to around 1.3 GW towards the back end of that decade, 2.4 GW over the last year. We now have 4 GW under construction as we speak. That makes us confident in terms of the 2023, 2024 target, that 2023 will get the 4 GW, and we're working obviously on the 2024 as well. To get to the around 4.1 GW. 2025, 2026, we're aiming for the around 4.8 GW.
27 and beyond, we'll obviously have to wait and see. Clearly, depending on market conditions, depending on how things are going, we see potential upside there. On average, over the business plan period, the four years, around 4.5 GW. Of the total investment, around 50% is already secured, and 50% is still in pipeline that we are developing, and we will obviously go on giving visibility to you as we go on securing that over time. We are keeping our asset rotation strategy. This was an important part of our various previous plans. We are keeping it around 30%. At one point, it used to be 60%. We brought it down to 40%. It's now around 30%, but obviously on a much bigger volume.
We continue to think that it's a projects. We are keeping a big part of them, we are selling some, and we are cashing in. We are de-risking some of those projects. We're getting basically all of that value creation upfront and then reinvesting it back into the business. I think we have a fantastic track record in this. I mean, 2023 for sure, but just over the last 10 years plus, we've done over EUR 20 billion of asset rotations. I'd like to highlight the 40% average asset rotation gains over invested capital, good spreads. I think that shows that we have been able to create value with these projects. In some cases, as I say, we'll keep them on the balance sheet.
In other cases, we'll sell them, and just get those proceeds, so we can reinvest and continue to grow faster. Couple of words on digital and innovation. On digital, this is important for a company that is growing because one thing is to do 700 MW per year. You can almost do that on an Excel spreadsheet. It's a couple of projects. You're managing it, fewer people. It's relatively straightforward. When you start ramping up a company, you need to really get processes in place that are much more digital so that you can automate it, so you can get those efficiencies, so you can really scale things up on an operational basis.
That's been a big part of the work that's being done, invisible to the outside, but important on the inside in terms of making sure that we are able to scale up and get those efficiencies of that scale. Using all the typical tools, whether it's AI, whether it's using analytics, whether it's just sometimes thinking digital by design when we're redesigning the processes internally. That's been a big part, and we're spending and we're investing a lot of money on that, particularly on the networks, but also on the renewables business. On innovation, this continues to be an important part of the company because a lot of...
I mean, for those of you that have read, International Energy Agency report, some of the technologies that are expected to contribute to the net zero by 2050 are considered to not yet have been invented or are not yet commercially available. It's important that we keep up to speed with what is going on in the sector. Just a couple of examples. I mean, we started investing in floating offshore wind many years ago. We actually have, I think, one of the two operational, floating wind projects off the coast of Portugal. We've already got three years of operating data based on that. We've actually seen it work.
When we start seeing auctions for offshore wind, whether it's in California, whether it's in Scotland, whether it's in other locations or South Korea, we're talking about a type of technology, and I'll talk about that in a bit, but type of technology that we are already beginning to familiar with. Start off as an innovation project, but then now it's becoming commercial scale. It's important to keep up to speed on these different areas. Floating Solar. Floating Solar is actually now being deployed both on dams and also on, for example, in Singapore, on the sea where you don't have a lot of waves. That's another area. Distributed Generation. This used to be something which is more or less considered innovation. That's also beginning to take off. You can talk about hydrogen.
Many different areas really are beginning to scale up over time. Those used to be innovation projects. We need to keep up to speed with that, we're continuing to invest on that also going forward. People. Typically considered the most important asset of a company. Again, I think one of the statistics I'd like to say, it's actually not on the slide, but 90% of the people at EDP are proud to work at EDP. We have 93% response rate to the surveys. People genuinely feel they like to work for the company, that they see themselves in the purpose of the company, and that we are able to not just attract the best, but also retain them over time.
As we go on scaling the company, as we go on attracting people, that's incredibly important, making sure that people are good. Fortunately, I think we have an incredibly talented team throughout the company, 13,000 people. We'll be hiring around 3,000 people over the course of this business plan. We have a good diversity. This is very much an engineering company, typically, low levels of female participation. That is increasing substantially. We've gone from around 25% in the past, and we're expecting to be over 30% by 2026. Talent is something that we continue to work on very, very much. We have lower attrition rates than the sector and many other companies in the sector. I think that's also an important point to make.
This is something, again, invisible to the outside, but very, very important in terms of making sure we can then execute and deliver on the business plan. ESG. This is something that EDP has been known for in terms of being a reference. We were considered the most sustainable integrated utility in 2022, according to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. As I mentioned earlier, the 2040 targets have now been validated by the Science Based Target initiative. We've committed to being coal-free. We've committed to being all green, net zero, Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 by 2040, as I say, validated. For us, it is important to work with the local communities. It's not just a buzzword, but, as you know, renewables and networks are very granular, very distributed infrastructure.
We impact a lot the local communities, and we need to have a conscious. This is not something that you say, "Okay, it's just to tick a box." It's because if you don't do it properly, you can't develop the projects, you can't operate properly. Working with the local communities is an incredibly important part for us. Going to the town hall meetings when we're developing a project, explaining to people why having wind turbines or solar projects is a good thing for the community, and so that you reduce the backlash against that type of thing. Protecting the planet, particularly in terms of biodiversity, that's becoming more and more important for governments and for the various sort of communities that we work with. Partners, again, the whole value chain is incredibly important.
That's also something that we've been spending a lot of time in making sure that all of our partners, all of the supply chain is also aligned with the ESG targets. If we want to get to net zero by 2040, we need to work along all of that. I give a good example I think of, at least for me, when it was most when I really got the idea of the impact of value chains. I was in Singapore, and we're talking to some of the people there about, for example, Indonesia, saying, "It's not so important, you know, renewables targets there." People weren't investing that much in renewables.
Someone said, "But actually, the companies that are operating there, which are integrated in the supply chain, a lot of them are having to buy renewable energy if they want to be a part of the supply chain into the U.S. or into Europe." That is what is driving a lot of that change in that part of the world. It's not necessarily that you need to have a top-down government decree saying, "You're going to do renewables." Many times, it's just a value chain. People that are integrated along the value chain saying, "If I want to sell, you know, to Amazon, if I want to sell to GE or someone, then I'm going to need to be compliant with those ESG.
If I'm going to sell to EDP, I'm going to need to be compliant with certain requirements. That drives also the need, for example, for certainly for things like Distributed Generation in those type of countries. For me, that was an eye-opener in terms of the impact of the value chain and how that will drive growth even in areas which perhaps typically aren't expected. The balance sheet, I've talked about the commitment to the BBB, FFO/Net Debt, and Rui will obviously give you a lot more detail on that, keeping it above the 20% and Net Debt to EBITDA also sort of in the low 3x .
I think one of the things that you know about us and, you know, we've been around for a while, is we have flexibility on the balance sheet, whether it's in terms of asset operations or disposals. We can make sure that we are committed to keeping that balance sheet independently of volatilities and bumps that we may have along the road. It's going to be a bumpy ride. We know that. We need to make sure we have a solid balance sheet, and that's one of the things we're committed to doing. Getting to two topics which I'm sure you're very curious about and you'll have read earlier, and partially related to balance sheet, but I think it's more about funding growth and funding some of the industrial logic of taking Brazil private. We are raising EUR 1 billion at EDP Renewables.
We are also raising EUR 1 billion at EDP to finance the delisting of Brazil. EDP Renewables, as you know, we'd said this in the last presentation back in 2021, we're committing to have more than 70% of EDP Renewables. It's not just a tax consolidation issue, it's been our commitment. You can go back and read the presentation, and it's there. We wanted to keep more than 70%. This capital raise keeps us above that level, and it allows us to accelerate the growth within this requirement. As you know, I just showed that we have a large investment program in EDP Renewables. We are financing around EUR 20 billion over the next couple of years. We have secured an investment commitment of around EUR 1 billion from GIC.
It will have a lockup applicable to all its shares for 90 days after they come in. The issue price that has been agreed with them is in the range of EUR 19.25 and EUR 20.5. We have the option, at our discretion, to curtail some of that, up to EUR 150 million, to place it with selected long-term existing shareholders that believe in the company and at the same terms and conditions as GIC. We will be doing an accelerated book build at an appropriate time. Basically, GIC has the EUR 1 billion secured. We can claw back part of it, but we will do it for long-term existing shareholders that we think will be there for this ride over the next couple of years. In Brazil. Brazil, I think it's important to say what we have in Brazil.
Normally, people talk about EDP Brazil, that's the listed company where we have networks, we have generation, both hydro, and we still have a coal plant there. Clients, a big trading platform, one of the biggest ones in sort of commercial platforms, in Brazil. We also have EDP Renewables Brazil, where we are developing more than 1 GW of renewables there. These are two. One is coming down through EDP Renewables, which is a listed company, the other one through EDP Brazil, which is also a listed company. This is not very efficient. We have basically two platforms operating in Brazil. The idea is that we will delist. Over time, our exposure will reduce in Brazil. This is not an increase in exposure to Brazil. We have already said that in the past.
We are selling Pecém, the coal plant, we are also selling hydro over the next couple of years. We sold one plant last year. We are committed to selling some additional ones. We see a lot of potential for growth in Brazil. We want to make sure that we keep that exposure within the risk limits that we have defined for Brazil. The focus going forward will be much more on networks, solar DG, together with wind and solar. Getting rid of basically the coal and some of the hydro. Managing this overall group exposure. You can see there you've got results contribution to EDP, 25%. It'll actually go down by 2026% as a percentage of the overall EDP, let's say, EBITDA. The transaction will be funded with a capital increase at EDP.
We're not going to take risk on balance sheet, in doing that, particularly given these volatile times. The rationale, as I mentioned, is industrial logic. It's got to do with balance sheets. It's got to do with synergies. It has to do just with the optimization of the portfolio. We think we can accelerate it. We think we can also optimize, let's say, the way we move or manage the cash flows. If I want to move cash from EDP Brazil, which is a cash flow positive business, to the renewables business, I need to upstream it to EDP through dividends and with leakages, and I need to downstream it to EDPR in Brazil. That's not very efficient. There are better ways of doing this. We continue to believe in the company. We continue to think it makes sense.
We just think EDP Brazil as a listed company no longer makes sense. It's better to take it private. We have announced the offer at BRL 24 per share. It's around a 20% premium to yesterday's closing price. It has an implied P/E of around 7x, an implied EV for EBITDA of around 5 x on the trailing multiple. We'll have a net profit contribution of around BRL 120 million. The next couple of years, it will be accretive even after the capital increase. As I say, this BRL 1 billion of capital increase, we've already got 60% firm commitment from very credible institutions, ADIA, CTG, GIC. We're talking about three institutions that have already committed to taking 60%. The rest will be subject to market. Depending on market conditions, we have some time to do that.
We'll again launch this at an appropriate time, but the point is we're talking about essentially raising EUR 400 million of equity on the market, which given EDP's market cap, should be relatively doable. Technically, we are launching the offer for the remaining 40% of the total shares, slightly over 40%. The BRL 24, as I mentioned, there's no legal limitation to the management rights of EDP Brazil during this period. In terms of getting success on the offer, what is success on the offer? That it flips. You need to get at least 2/3, I guess, of the free float shareholders registered for the auction. It's not overall free float, so it's the people that show up for the auction. 2/3 need to vote in favor of the registry.
You can delist the company and then basically take it off the market. That's something that will happen probably towards August, so beginning of the second half of the year. Obviously, the final offer and the timings are subject to the CVM, which is the local market regulator approval. That's on Brazil. Where does it all leave us at the end of the day? The growth, the capital raisings, the investments. We are expecting double-digit net income growth. For 2024, we will be already overachieving versus the 25 target that we had previously. We are anticipating the 2025 target to 24 and then some. We are expecting to be at around EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion of net income by 2026. We think we have an attractive dividend policy.
We're making it sustainable and aligned with our peers, considering that there's a mix between dividends and growth. We're having a target payout ratio of around 60%-70%. Obviously, as the earnings start increasing, we believe dividends also increase, we're projecting around the EUR 0.20 dividend in 2026. Okay. I'll talk about the platforms. The platforms, basically, we're going to be presenting in a slightly different way. This is essentially, previously, in the previous business plan, we had renewables, which included both hydro, wind and solar, we had energy management and customers. We had electricity networks. The way we think about it is increasingly this is an integrated business, yeah, particularly in terms of renewables, clients and energy management. We are generating energy.
We're managing that then either placing it with customers, with corporates or, well, in Portugal, we have still B2C, but mostly corporates or in the market. That's, let's say, some of the way we'll be presenting this platform, and we'll also be presenting the electricity networks, which continues to represent a substantial amount of our EBITDA, so about a third, and renewables around 67% based on the 2022 numbers. If we talk about renewables. We've been scaling up, let's say, the renewables, including hydro over the last couple of years. We currently have 22 GW, including hydro in Portugal and in Brazil, wind and solar in many of the other geographies. We've got 4 GW already under construction. We also have Ocean Winds with already 1.5 GW also operational.
All of this, I think, positions us very strongly, certainly in the U.S., also in Europe. We've scaled up our European position. We bought Kronos, which gives us very good growth options and opportunities in Germany and also in the Netherlands, particularly in solar. We've established a position in Asia-Pacific through Sunseap. We've tripled our offshore portfolio to 16.6 GW. We're also developing these new business models, whether it's DG, whether it's hybridization, storage or hydrogen, and I'll talk about that in just a couple of slides. This shows a little bit of the growth. Perhaps since I already showed that a little bit behind, what I'll focus on is what's at the bottom of the slide. In terms of pipeline, so increasing the pipeline that we have available to deliver on the megawatts.
In terms of technologies, we went from being primarily a wind and hydro company to having also a large percentage of solar, and also increasing the number of people to make sure that we can execute on this. That's also what's going to drive, let's say, this growth going forward. We have a good pipeline that will allow us to adjust this growth rate in the future. Speaking specifically about the pipeline, we have around 18 GW projected over these four years. 8 GW of that is already secured, so it's a higher percentage than what we had in the previous business plan. We have 10 GW approximately still to be secured. As you can see, we substantially grow the pipeline over these years.
We've been investing over the last two, three years in developing this pipeline to make sure that we can then deliver on these projects still to be secured. As I say, both Asia-Pacific, Kronos, but also our existing organic in-house development has really allowed us to build up this pipeline to make sure we can then deliver on that. In terms of the split of investments, so we talked about the EUR 20 billion, EUR 21 billion specifically in this platform. The other EUR 4 billion is for networks. The EUR 21 billion, it's broken down roughly 40% wind, 40% solar. Interesting to note the megawatts associated. We're talking about 5 G in wind, 9.4 GW in solar. You can quickly do the math in terms of what is the average CapEx per megawatt for the different technologies.
It shows you can do more megawatts, or the CapEx per megawatt for solar continues to be lower than wind. We continue to develop solar DG. I think this is an interesting platform. It's probably the fastest-growing piece of our business individually, solar DG. We're expecting to have about 2 GW built over the next couple of years. Mostly corporate. I'll talk a little bit more about that in just a couple of slides. I think this is an interesting part of the business that we are beginning to get quite good visibility on. Offshore, a lot of the projects will be coming in post-business plan. We'll still be getting around 2 GW of gross additions in this period. Storage and hydrogen still coming in at about 500 MW over this period.
Talking about the different hubs. Where are we expecting these additions and this growth to come from? A big chunk of it coming from the U.S. We're talking about more than 7 GW, 40% or just slightly over 40%. As I say, we see great opportunities there. We have Sandhya who's leading our U.S. operations here. You can done for coffee if you want to talk to her about what we're seeing there. Very strong corporate market, a lot of PPAs, a lot of demand for these type of projects, and we will see this scaling up. We're expecting this to grow probably 50% and then doubling over the next three-five years. We also have a diversified geographical footprint, even within the U.S. I mean, the U.S. is a continent.
I mean, you have East Coast, West Coast, Midwest, Texas. I mean, depending on where we are, we'll either use wind, solar, a combination, and I think having that geographic mix within the U.S. is very attractive. We're doing offshore wind on the East Coast where there's not that much land, but they want green energy. Wind in the Midwest, where there's a lot of wind and farmers like to have the turbines there. They can continue to do their agriculture. Down in Texas, you can have both wind and solar. California, they like the green energy. They don't have winds. They have some solar, but they're now moving to offshore, and so they just ran an auction there.
Really having these multiple technologies allows you to make sure that you can get the best technology and optimize the resources for the different areas of the country. Europe, I mean, a huge market as well, around 6 GW. As I say, a lot of tailwinds. Obviously, also some regulatory issues that we are still working through as a sector, but generally, I'd say very positive tailwinds pushing the growth there. Reinforced with the Kronos acquisition, but just generally, I think we already had a strong base there. South America, around 2.5 GW, around 15% overall. A big chunk of that coming in Brazil, but also we have a project in Colombia and we're developing some in Chile.
Stable markets, actually, the Brazilian market. I said that a lot for those of you that have heard me. The Brazilian market has incredibly stable and predictable regulation. It's got issues around FX, and it's got issues around, you know, sort of macro-interest rates and inflation, although everything is typically inflation-linked, so that actually ends up not being a problem. At the actual regulatory level in electricity, it's one of the most sophisticated systems that we see in the various different markets that we operate in. For example, for wind, it continues to have long-term PPAs with the system for renewable energy, but also increasingly, we're seeing more and more corporate PPAs being done in Brazil.
That's why I think also the fact that we have a trading platform in EDP - Energias do Brasil or EDP Brazil allows us to then leverage that by combining the businesses. Asia-Pacific, I already mentioned that in terms of Sunseap. Based out of Singapore, but present in a couple of markets in Southeast Asia. We're seeing a lot of potential growth there. It will be primarily corporate DG, but moving also into utility solar. In Southeast Asia, it will be mostly solar, but potentially with some wind also coming online. Now two slides about Distributed Generation. Normally, when we talk about renewables, we're thinking about utility scale, large projects. Certainly in the U.S., they'd be 100 MW, 200 MW projects.
DG is actually considered to be one of the highest growth markets globally in terms of renewables, in terms of putting panels, for example, for corporates. We're talking about 40%-50% of the overall solar additions globally over the next two years. Very strong intrinsics, short time to cash, typically smaller projects with no issues on permitting, as long as you have the corporate's okay for it. Good savings for the customer, you can lock them in. Short payback periods, nice project cash yields. It's a good business, we've been scaling that up. We did it more than a GW over the last two years, we believe we have the capabilities to continue to scale that up going forward. Already with a global footprint, not just in Europe, but also in the U.S., Brazil, and also Southeast Asia.
Competitive advantages, as I said, we've been doing this already. It was a smaller part of our business. As it scales up, becomes more visible. That's why I'm taking the time to also give you some additional information on it, because I think it now begins to be more material, and I think it will become more material as time goes by. We have that capability. We have the global footprint. I mean, just recently, well, recently it was last year, but we won a project with Faurecia for 100 MW globally. That already starts becoming sizable, but in multiple different geographies and with attractive returns. It also has some synergies in terms of procurement because you're essentially buying the same type of solar panels as utility scale.
As I say, we're expecting to do about 2 GW over the next couple of years just on this model, which is not a transactional model. This is almost a PPA-type model, where you lock in with the customer a PPA for 10, 15 years as well, and you get a good cash payback on that. As I say, split between the U.S., Asia-Pacific, Europe, Brazil. We're also doing transactional DG, so where you just sell, you set it up, and you sell them, and you get the cash. 1.4 GW, that's what we're expecting. I'd just like to differentiate the two business models. One is you're setting up... it's more a utility-style PPA and business because it's more of an infrastructure business, and the other one is much more transactional business. Can be very interesting margins.
It's just a slightly different business because it's, you're installing it, getting the cash, and moving on. Still with nice margins. On offshore. Offshore, I think has been a very pleasant surprise. We did a partnership with ENGIE, Ocean Winds, 50/50, as you know. When we last presented two years ago, we had around 6.6 GW of pipeline. We set some targets. We've already exceeded those targets in terms of pipeline. We're already at almost 17 GW of secured. Part of that is already operating. Moray East came into operation. We had a fantastic results based on that, given where energy prices was. Some of that is under construction and development. The rest is still secured and being developed over the next couple of years.
On the right-hand side, you can see basically how this, those 16 GW come in over the next couple of years. We'll have around 9 GW by 2030 and almost 17 GW by 2035. Interesting to note also the bottom-fixed versus the floating component. You already begin to see scale also on the floating offshore, which will require significant CapEx deployment. Interesting to also that we've been doing this with partners. Offshore projects are typically gigawatt-plus size projects. We don't want to have 100% of those projects. I don't think it's good risk management to have. We prefer to have smaller stakes of many more projects than to have just one project with 100%.
We partnered up with GIP in the New York Bight, with Shell in the Mayflower in Massachusetts, with CPPIB in California on 50/50 basis. We've been finding partners to essentially drive this offshore potential, limiting our risk, but allowing us to do more projects and to scale up. You can see here the seabed tenders. We're at 8 GW. Just the seabed tenders until 2026, we're talking about more than 50 GW in Europe alone. Primarily places like Netherlands, Germany, Poland, I mean, even places like Spain and Portugal are talking about that. In Asia and the U.S., around 17 G up to 2026, but then 60 until 2030. Massive potential. I think we continue to see Ocean Winds as being very successful in securing projects so far.
We continue to see a huge upside there. On the right-hand side, just to show that some of this will be bottom-fixed, but some of it will also be floating. Again, what I mentioned a little bit earlier when I was talking about the innovation piece, but we have already some experience in floating, which I don't think many companies can say that. I think that's something that we will continue to be investing in because we see that as an interesting business. Now, I wanted to touch on an issue around infrastructure. What I wanted to say is that if you have an installed base, you can leverage it to create much more additional value. If you actually have an installed base, you can do things like hybridization.
If I have a wind project, and I already have the interconnection to the network, I can put a solar project as long as I get the permitting on that same interconnection point. I don't need another interconnection point, and as you know, in some places, that's scarce. I can get a better energy management because winds and solar many times are complementary, so I get a better shaped energy production. I reduce the costs on a per megawatt basis because I can manage it in a much more efficient way. Having that installed base, being able to do hybridization, we think is one of the easiest and fastest ways of scaling up renewables. That's what we've been pushing. That's what's being done in places like Portugal and Spain. We believe it will continue to expand even to places potentially like in the U.S.
Why wouldn't you do it? It's a much more efficient use of the interconnection point to have multiple different technologies on that same point. If you have that point, that's an important, I think, value creation lever that we have, and that's something that we will continue to push going forward. Hybridization is something that we believe in very much. You can't do it everywhere. Obviously, it depends then on the geographic terrain, et cetera. If you have that installed base, you can certainly leverage much more on it. Repowering is also something that's very interesting. If you've got older projects over this decade, you will be able to bring on newer models of turbines that are more efficient, and you will be able to scale that up.
Storage, again, putting storage co-located with solar, that's also very interesting, as you know, particularly in the U.S., less so in Europe, at least for the moment. Hydrogen, just a word here on hydrogen, because hydrogen can also be an interesting way, and we, you know, some of you may have seen some announcements in terms of partnerships, an interesting way of scaling up the renewables business. At the end of the day, hydrogen is 70% green electricity. You can think about it almost as hydrogen as electricity, green electricity turned into a gas. I think having that ability to turn your renewable projects into hydrogen and partner up, whether with Cepsa or others, or many others, I think that can be a very interesting value creation mechanism as well.
Also on existing industrial sites or reconverting coal plants, for example, like we're doing together, getting EU support to convert those into renewables plus hydrogen sites. I think there's a lot of buzz around hydrogen, certainly in Europe and in the U.S. I think it will take time to scale up, but I think it can represent good opportunities for the growth also of the renewables business. Hydro, it's a renewables business. Not easy to build new hydro in most of the places where we're in, but if you have it's a good business, particularly in Iberia, where it's exposed to market. Obviously, you have volume risk. We suffered some of that last year, but it is a valuable technology. You can.
It has a realized price, which is much higher than the base load because you can decide exactly what hours you produce. We have a lot of pumping there as well. We can take advantage of the arbitration between peak and off-peak and long-term concessions. Brazil, we have good hydro plants, very high quality, long-term contracted. We've announced we sold one last year. We've announced we may be selling some additional hydro plants over the course of this business plan. Good, strong cash flow generation. Very good. I mean, all the CapEx is done. It's just generating cash. Long-term storage, it adds value, particularly where we have other renewable technologies, particularly, I think, in places like Iberia.
Overall, just a quick note, I think on the overall procurement, O&M procurement and construction, that is an area where if you have scale, you can get additional advantages, certainly versus smaller developers, independent developers. Having that type of scale, whether it's for turbines, whether it's for solar panels, whether it's having the engineering expertise to do these projects at scale, that's something that we believe we have. We have a sizable portfolio already. We're developing many more megawatts. I think managing all of that value chain, whether from the development, the procurement, the construction, all the way to the O&M, that will bring us a competitive advantage in and of itself versus many other players. Overall, we've also got a big chunk of our solar panels and our turbines already locked in for the next, let's say year or two.
Can go into more detail on that a little bit later, but basically, most of that is already isolated. On e-energy management, just a quick note here. This is something that we've also adjusted over time. We used to have energy management where we would balance basically our expected production, so for example, from hydro, and we would forward sell that. Currently, we are doing it around 80%-90% of our forward production or 70%-80% on hydro so that we don't take the volume risk. So that as the hydro reduces, we are not taking that exposure, unlike what happened last year. We've adjusted our hedging strategy to take that into consideration. 80%-90% for wind and solar because wind and solar has much lower volatility than hydro.
Hydro has a higher volatility. We have lower hedging in place. Wind and solar has a much lower standard deviation around the, let's say, the expected mean. We have a higher hedging position in place. Reducing also the exposure to gas, both in terms of sales to customers, but also CCGTs, and just generally making sure we have, let's say, a good hedging strategy in place to actively manage on a risk-return basis. That's what we're optimizing for. It doesn't mean we want zero risk, because if you have zero risk, you have zero return. We also don't want too much risk. We're just trying to optimize on those typical risk-return curves where we want to be on an optimal basis. There will always be some outliers, but we try and do it in a very scientific way.
In customers here, we talked about solar DG. That's obviously a big part of it. Corporate PPAs, it's very important because more and more emphasis is being given not just on auctions, but on doing actual corporate PPAs. Having that relationship with corporate customers is very important. In the U.S., more than half of our projects are done with corporates. At the end of the day, it is a B2B business. You may not typically consider it as such, but you are developing these relationships, whether it's with Amazon or Microsoft or Walmart or whether it's with, you know, a steel company. Those are customer relationships where you're locking in long-term contracts. These corporate PPAs, we already have a big chunk of our B2B supply locked in under long-term contracts. Services as well, that's particularly relevant, I think, in Iberia.
Increasing the penetration of services to our retail customers to more than 35%. Finally, where will we end up? This is the overall photograph, I mean, in a simplified way in terms of our overall megawatts. We start off 2022 with 22 GW, increase it by 18 GW, sell 7 GW through the asset rotation program, and end up with 33 GW by 2026. A 50% increase over the next four years, split roughly between U.S. and Europe, 85% of it, the rest of it, South America and Asia. From a technological mix, as you know, we were primarily wind. That legacy continues there. We continue to have 50% in wind, solar increasing around 25%, solar DG around 9%, 17% hydro. A nice mix of the different technologies with solar beginning to take more space.
I think if you ask me on the business plan, you'll see more solar, I think, in the next couple of years. Those are typically faster projects, time to market. You'll see more wind coming in around 25, 26. Permitting takes a little bit more time because you didn't have the IRA before and so people were counting that wind would decrease. With the IRA, people are beginning to ramp up wind again. That will start coming in towards the back end, and I think you'll see the same thing also in Europe. Wind, I think, went through a slump, and you've seen that in the turbine manufacturers. They're all suffering quite a bit.
I do believe that that will ramp up as the permitting starts to get in place and you start sort of seeing those incentives come in both in Europe and in the U.S. A nice balanced mix of technologies by 2026. That's the first platform. Just a couple slides on networks, because I think it is an important part of our business. It continues to have a lot of value. It is a portfolio stabilizer. It is very attractive in terms of cash flow and generation. The first thing to say is just recognizing what we have in terms of networks. We have a very strong base in Iberia, Portuguese networks, and also the north of Spain, particularly post the Viesgo acquisition, we doubled our size in Spain. We've done this very successful integration of Viesgo.
I think we more than achieved our synergies on that. We're top three Iberian distribution company. We're a reference player also in Brazil, both in Espírito Santo state and in São Paulo state. Top-tier operator. One thing to note is the operational efficiency. We've actually managed to bring down the OPEX per client by around 17% over the last four years. I think it's quite an interesting number in terms of the efficiencies we've managed to get from the distribution networks and continue to invest in digitalization over the next couple of years as well. How we expect this to evolve, growing from around EUR 6 billion of RAB to EUR 6.6 billion of RAB. I think this is a realistic target. Potentially, could do more than that. It has a nice rate of return, 5%-6%.
It's indexed to bond yields in Portugal. The rate of return goes up as the bond yields go up. Fixed in Spain until 2026, on a real basis, 7%-8% in Brazil indexed to inflation. Again, immune to a lot of that macro volatility, I think it makes it a very nice business in Brazil. Overall, investing about BRL 3 billion over the period, over the next years. Networks are very much a question of efficiency, that comes through digitalization, automation of processes, making sure that we can do things remotely, automating it, repairing the grids without necessarily having to have people go out onto the field. We are investing a lot in digital.
We are investing a lot in improving the quality of service, investing in reducing the losses, and continue to bring those efficiencies down, and so reducing it by around 13% OPEX over client reduction over the next four years. Continue to drive that efficiency over the next years. In transmission, just a word on transmission, very nice business. We can't own transmission in Europe. We can own it in Brazil. We are expecting to see interesting transmission operations in Brazil, around EUR 1 billion of RAB by 2026. Overall investment of around EUR 800 million over this period, but then rotating it as well. I mean, once you've built a transmission line, I mean, you don't need to do very much with it. It's basically just there.
You can sell it to people who want to have a lower cost of capital, and you can redeploy that back into new transmission lines. That's something that we believe makes sense, and it creates value in the transmission business. In Brazil, we've already done that to a certain extent. We believe we can continue to do that going forward. This is it on the platforms. Renewables, clients, energy management, and electricity networks. Growing substantially on the renewables front, including DG. Large investment program, EUR 21 billion, doubling the installed capacity by 2026. More than 70 TWh overall on a global basis. On the electricity networks, EUR 4 billion of investment over the next four years and a RAB of about EUR 7.5 billion by the end of that period.
I say sort of some of the key numbers in a summarized way, but hopefully, I've walked you through these different platforms and allowed you to understand a little bit better the assets that are behind each of these. I'll pause there, pass it over to Rui, and then I'll come back for closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Miguel. Good morning to you all once again. I would like to take you now through the financials of this business plan. First of all, start by saying that we currently have, and we believe that we will have in this business plan, a very distinctive portfolio. 95% of our EBITDA will be at the core of the business in the energy transition. 80% of our EBITDA will be coming from core low-risk geographies like the U.S. and Europe. You may see that also on the slide, you have the LATAM or Brazilian effectively below the 15%. Effectively managing the exposure in Brazil until the end of the period. The substantial part of our gross profit will come from either long contracts with inflation-linked escalators, even some callers.
Importantly, that component of the merchant exposure, the 45%, will be hedged over time. As we look now to 2023, we have about 80% of our merchant exposure hedged, and this is how we'll be managing, as also Miguel explained, our hedging strategy to the future. I would say distinctive portfolio, diversified, and low risk profile. The way we'll build this is, of course, by keeping a very, you know, selective investment approach. Looking at investment that not only target returns, the 1.4 x WACC or the minimum 200 basis points spread IRR to WACC, but also the risk profile with at least 60% of the NPV of the new projects being fully contracted or long-term contracted. I think it's important also not looking at the metrics in itself, but the absolute returns.
Because at the end of the day, yes, we'll have a higher CapEx involved in this business plan, and the returns come from the CapEx. What we are seeing right now is that our new projects are, we are targeting around 8%, 9% IRRs. This is coming from U.S. and Europe, both in wind and solar. Not only on the IRR level, but really on the cash yields, because we need to manage, of course, for cash. The cash yields that we are observing for the contracted period are also very strong in these very high single-digit numbers. At the project level, we'll definitely keep on selecting investments that support this investment metrics, and this will of course be contributing positively to the financials of the company.
Naturally, this comes on the back of, in one hand, higher interest rates, but also higher CapEx. What we are seeing is that CapEx on a per megawatt basis is increasing by 20%-30%. The reflection of this is on the PPA pricing. The chart that you see here on the right of this slide is by a third party, an independent party, that is showing that PPA pricing, both in U.S. and Europe, increased by 50% over the last year. We have actually been negotiating PPAs in the U.S. in the range of the $60-$70 per MW h, and that compares to the $20-$30 per MW h that we were negotiating about a year ago.
Effectively, there is a reflection of this higher CapEx and higher cost of capital into the PPA pricing that ultimately translates into very solid absolute returns in the range of the 8%-9% that I've shown before. In parallel, we'll of course, keep on our asset rotation strategy. I think that we have been rather successful. What we consider in this business plan is pretty much the same volumes that we consider in the previous business plan. In terms of the capital gains contribution, around the same EUR 300 million per annum as we were considering previously, although the actuals, as we have been showing in our results, are around the EUR 500 million per annum. Here we prefer to be prudent and target a EUR 300 million per annum of capital gains contribution.
As earnings are increasing, the relative contribution of the capital gains from the asset rotation will decrease over the business plan period. I would like also to give you some, you know, views about what we continue to have as a very sound and I would say prudent financial policy. We are fully committed to the BBB, and we'll repeat this, you know, over and over again because we are fully committed to that. We achieved that in 2021, and we want to keep it for the future as we see it as strategic for the balance sheet to be ready to capture this growth cycle that we have ahead. 80% of our financing will be managed on a centralized basis at the holding level.
Very importantly, we want to make sure that we keep a strong liquidity management, and therefore we at any point in time, we have financing our refinancing needs covered for the next 12-24 months. Managing cash in the company is absolutely key. What we are seeing in terms of the cost of debt is that on average, it will evolve around the 4.3% throughout the period of this business plan. I want to also just remind us all about what we did since 2021 in terms of issuances in the market. In total was EUR 5.3 billion at around 3.2% and a 6.5 years average maturity.
The reason why I want to highlight this is this was done so that we would be refinancing the future maturity bonds and effectively already working on the cost of capital for EDP well in advance. All of these issuance were green. For the future, all of it will be green as well. 100% of our previous and forthcoming issuance will be green. Therefore, we aim to get to 2026 with about 60% of our stock of debt under green financing. This led us to a very strong liquidity position. By the end of 2022, we had more than EUR 11 billion of cash available. This is providing us visibility that we will be able to refinance all our needs beyond 2025.
More importantly, on the right-hand side of this slide, you can see that we worked, you know, through the recent past to actually take or mitigate, take off or mitigate the repricing risk of the 2023 and 2024 maturities. More than 70% of our refinancing needs are already covered in terms of cost, either because we pre-hedged the mid-swaps back in summer. We did EUR 1 billion at 1.8% and $1 billion at 2.6%. Those pre-hedges will be used for the refinancing of the 23 and 24 maturities. Also we issued senior bonds at the end of the period, at the end of the year, you know, 1 billion in total, so half in dollars and half in euros.
This again, was done so that we would be preparing ourselves for and taking away or mitigating that repricing risk of the two years ahead maturities. This of course, is part of the overall risk profile of how we manage debt. As you know, we have a target of about 75% of our debt being a fixed rate. The 25% floating is primarily coming from Brazil, where of course, the assets are linked to inflation, and therefore we match the asset liability from a rate perspective. We keep the same FX policy and strategy than before, matching assets and liabilities in the same currencies. Again, this works towards building a very strong and prudent balance sheet, which will evolve over time.
Our net debt will grow to the EUR 17 billion that you see here, so it's an additional EUR 4 billion of net debt. The FFO/Net Debt will go from 20% to 21%. Again, working on the robustness of the balance sheet and making sure that we are reaching now our commitments towards the shareholders, but also to all, also to the debt holders and to credit agencies, how committed we are with this BBB balance sheet. Of course, over time, we will always be flexible about portfolio optimization, asset rotation in a way that we will always be working to meet this important target. Of course, there is also a big question when we present a Business Plan, is how we fund the Business Plan. I want to highlight that the Business Plan is fully funded.
All in all, we'll be needing EUR 27 billion of cash, mostly of course, for the expansion CapEx. We'll have strong cash flow generation from our operating assets. It's more than EUR 9 billion, as you can see on the slide. Naturally, we'll have some asset rotation and disposals totaling around EUR 8 billion and raising tax equity in U.S., as you know, to capture the full value of the tax credits in U.S. of around EUR 4 billion. We'll have this additional EUR 4 billion in debt that I just mentioned before, and of course, the EUR 2 billion of equity raising that Miguel already explained, and that will be here to support effectively the growth that we have ahead in our business plan.
How we look at the profitability and how we look in terms of the value creation to the different stakeholders and definitely to shareholders. We see a net profit increasing in this business plan around 12%-14% per annum. We would get to 2026 with EUR 1.4 billion-EUR 1.5 billion of net profit. It's set definitely a significant growth from where we depart in 2022. EBITDA as well, reaching EUR 5.7 billion, 86% growth on an annual basis, from 2022 to 2026. Also importantly, you know, the platform that will be contributing significantly or mostly to this growth will be the wind solar, so effectively the renewables, clients and energy management. This will grow soundly through the period.
I would like to end before I hand over to Miguel for final remarks, with just also a comparison to what we presented two years ago, because I think it's important to highlight that we are actually anticipating some of the targets and stepping up some of the targets. As we look to our deliveries, we said that we would be building around 4 GW per annum. This plan, we are committing to deliver 4.5 GW per annum. We said that we wanted to be a carbon or actually coal-free, and we are working to be the coal-free by 2025. We'll know that we'll have that view to be carbon neutral by 2030.
Actually we are now committed to have the net zero by 2040, and that is already confirmed by SBTi as a credible target. Balance sheets, we were committing to become a BB B. We became a BB B in 2021, and we are fully committed to maintain this BB B strong balance sheet into 2026. On the financials, when we presented our business plan two years ago, we were targeting around EUR 4.7 billion EBITDA by 2025. If you look now our numbers for 2024, what we are showing is a EUR 5.3 billion EBITDA. Above already the 2025 targets. The same happening at the net profit. We were committing to EUR 1.2 billion in 2025, and already by 2024, we expect to reach EUR 1.2 billion-EUR 1.3 billion.
Effectively here, anticipating what we committed to in the previous business plan. Last but not least, improving retribution to shareholders. Not only we adjust the payout ratio, but also we, you know, consistent with the business plan commitment, we also have a steady increase on the dividend per share floor up to EUR 0.20 per share by 2026. Again, I'd just like to share that how committed we are with this business plan and how we are seeing it actually anticipating some of the targets that we committed before in 2021. With that, I would hand over to Miguel for the final remarks. Thank you.
Okay. Very quickly, just two slides, but I think they're important just to try and wrap up. We are stepping up the green growth of the company. We'll have a strong balance sheet and a simplified future-proof organization. We're anticipating the targets from 2025 to 2024. I already mentioned that the 2023 targets we also expect to be clearly above what we had indicated two years ago. This is done on the back of good positive market tailwinds. We're accelerating the growth, as I said, to around 4.5 GW per year, and that will scale up over time. It'll be around 4.8 GW towards the back end. We're consolidating a leading role in ESG. We already said coal-free by 2025, all green by 2030.
2040, we are now validated and certified by the Science Based Targets initiative to be net zero. We're driving the corporate simplification, delisting EDP Brazil. We're raising capital for that. It is an accretive transaction, both on a value basis and on a net income basis, even post the transaction. That's going to drive the simplification and also synergies in the business. We think it has industrial rationale and it has financial rationale. We're keeping a solid balance sheet, committing to our BBB rating. We've reiterated that several times, but just so there's absolutely no misunderstanding, and we're ensuring that we have a solid and sustainable dividend policy with a 60%-70% payout and a floor of around EUR 0.20 by 2026. We're doing the capital raising at EDPR, EUR 1 billion already fully subscribed on the terms that I already mentioned.
We think this is a fantastic package on the various different dimensions in terms of growth, in terms of balance sheet, and in terms of dividend policy. Just in terms of general strategy, I think this has got a lot of future-proof. I mean, when we talk about will this company be around in five, 10, 15, 20 years' time? Yes, we continue to see that tailwind is going stretching into the future. We can't do a business plan for the next 10, 20 years, but I can tell you, I'm sure it will be fantastic growth going forward. Really just we're scaling up the business, we're stepping up the growth, we're committing to leading the energy transition, whether it's in renewables, whether it's in networks, whether it's in clients, making sure that we're getting to that 100% green by 2030.
I truly believe, and I think as a team, we truly believe that this will leverage the structural tailwinds to deliver the required green growth. We will create value for shareholders and other stakeholders. We're very clear that we'll be generating value for shareholders, and that's what we've designed this business plan to do. I just wanted to end the note by thanking the teams that helped put not just the business plan together, but all the different transactions that were presented earlier today. As you can imagine, a lot of sleepless nights, a lot of work, a lot of people that had to sort of get together to make this happen.
What I can say is that I think it just shows the ability of the team to put together not just a business plan, but all of these, which are very complex transactions, as all of you know, to put these together. That's why I say I have no doubt that the biggest asset this company has is its people. The ability to attract fantastic people, to retain fantastic people, and for me, it's truly a privilege and an honor to be able to work with this team. Thank you very much to the team, and I hope you enjoyed it. We'll be taking Q&A, I guess, in the next step. Thank you.
Well, thank you all. We will now open for our session of Q&A. Maybe I'll start here with the questions in the room. Maybe you start with Javier Garrido from JP Morgan.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I would have three questions to start. The first one, I would like to insist if you could provide a bit more visibility near term. I mean, 2022 was a strange year for many reasons. You could provide some guidance on what you're expecting to see in 2023, as this is probably a more realistic basis of what we should see in the rest of the business plan period. The second question is on the tax equity instruments. You're looking at $4 billion in the plan period.
I wonder if you could comment on the cost that you are assuming for those instruments, and also you can make a more qualitative comment on how your view on these instruments has changed with the U.S. IRA, whether you have full visibility now or you are still expecting more clarification on the specific issues. The third question would be on the achieved prices in Iberia. You have in appendix your assumptions for wholesale prices, but what really matters is the retail price. I was wondering if you could give us some clarity of what is the trajectory of retail prices that you are assuming in the business plan. Thank you.
Okay. In 2023, I think what we're seeing is, as I mentioned, a good start to the year in terms of hydro. We're seeing a lot of the positions that we had, which impacted us. Let me put it this way, if you took 2022, which we ended up with EUR 870 million, and you think that we had a terrible hydro year, absolutely dreadful. If you factor back that in, imagine what it would have been. I'm not saying that that's 2023. What I'm saying is that if we assume an average hydro year, you can certainly assume, you know, a pretty good basis for 2023. Obviously, there are other things like, you know, the...
Let's say on the gas side, the fact you have lower costs there, because if you have a short position, then you're basically taking that as well. That's also a hit that we had in 2022, which we're not expecting that will happen certainly as intense in 2023. We're ending up not expecting such a negative impact on places like Romania and Poland. If you unwind some of those negatives that we had in 2022, and even so, as I said, we had a fantastic EBITDA for 2022 and even the net income, we ended up being, you know, quite well in line with our guidance. If you take out some of those negatives and look at 2023, I think you can get a sense for that we'll have a pretty or we're expecting a pretty good year.
On the second comment, do you want... Well, you can take it. Sure.
Thank you, Miguel. Javier, on the tax equity. First of all, what we are seeing in terms of pricing right now, ranging 6.5%, 7%, maybe slightly above 7%. Typically, what we saw over the last 10, 15 years of experience there is that we you know, the tax equity market never swings as you know, with the same amplitude as we see it on the swaps, on the mid-swaps, on the interest rates. It's, you know, it has its own different dynamics in terms of supply and demand. I think right now we'll be landing within these 6.5%, 7% numbers. What we are seeing in the market is actually very good dynamics, some couple of good dynamics.
First, the introduction of PTC for solar enables some banks to actually manage better or manage differently, their tax capacity, instead of having to lock it in a single year as they have to do it for the ITC. Actually, we are seeing some banks very keen to work on PTC deals and looking on, you know, putting that 10 years forward. As you know, that there is some alternative. Just also to your question, it's not yet 100% clarified some of the stuff from IRS, but we believe it will come through the next months. You know, one alternative, which is not to use tax equity structures, we believe that will be available. Maybe not so efficient because the accelerated depreciation component, you would still have to monetize it.
It's likely that we will still prefer the full, you know, structure of the tax equity transactions. We'll have to have that clarification going forward. One last comment about this is, I think that over time, we have built very, very good relationship with the main tax equity providers, also tapped into new tax equity providers. They recognize the value of our plants, of both wind and solar plants. We typically work with them one year in advance of actually having to lock in the transaction and typically on a portfolio basis. I'm really confident that we'll be able to work well and capture or raise those $4 billion through tax equity.
Maybe on the third point, Javier, if I understood it, achieved prices in Iberia, I mean, for the customers. The way we normally do it is, let's say when you're hedging or when you're forward selling, you'll take that, and then you put a supply margin or a commercial margin on top of that. What I can say is on the, let's say on this energy which is being sold, we're doing that close to the wholesale prices or certainly sort of in the, let's say, 100 plus prices. You have the retail margins on top of that. I don't know if that helps you get to that.
It's more the trajectory.
The trajectory. We're expecting... Listen, we're locking in a lot of the B2B customers with longer-term contracts. We've seen an increase substantially over the last year. Vera, my colleague, takes sort of all the supply business. A lot of them are locking in five, seven, 10-year contracts, sort of at the average wholesale price for the next couple of years. That, in a certain way, you can expect that for a certain part of the energy going forward. 60%?
Around 60%.
In terms of the trajectory, if you're taking it on a spot basis, let's say on a yearly basis, you get whatever is the wholesale price that we're assuming for that particular year. In some cases, we'll level it out, you'll get an averaged price over that period.
We can go to the next question from Manuel Palomo from BNP.
Hello. Sorry. Good morning. Manuel Palomo from BNP. I will stick to three questions as well. First of all, you mentioned the dreadful hydro year last year, and I could not agree more. Something that I understand that we learned is that the hydro resource is very volatile. My first question is, what's your expectation about those factors for the coming period? Whether there's any lever to offset potential volatility in the hydro, as we saw last year and we've seen in history. Second question is about Distributed Generation. If I recall well, this business splits in three, between EDP, EDPR, EDP Brazil. With the move of EDP buying out EDP Brazil, I understand now it stays in two.
Longer term, does it make sense to be in two separate entities? Would it make sense to put it under only one company? Is there any plan to do so? I guess that maybe EDPR would be the one owning this DG, but just guessing. The third question is on returns. You still target very, I would say strong returns despite the visibility on the cash flows. I would argue it's a bit lower. I mean, you continue to target the 1.4x historical WACC equal IRR. However, in this presentation, you said that above 60% of the NPV of the cash flows is already there, versus two years ago it was 70%.
May I ask about what are the price assumptions, beyond the duration of the PPAs, given those cash flows now explain, a higher percentage of the NPV? Thank you.
Great. On the hydro. Yes, I mean, there is a higher volatility. Again, just to remind us all, 2022 was, you know, the worst of the years. Not only we had the worst of the drought, but we also had the highest of the prices. It was, I'm not sure if I called it a black swan or event or. Effectively, it was there. Going forward, what we are adjusting is the hedging policy, so that we don't hedge more than around 80% of the hydro on the P50 basis. That should account for what we consider to be normal volatility on the hydro coefficients. I mean, naturally, it's impossible to predict. Unfortunately, it's impossible to predict these extreme case scenarios as we experienced in 2022.
With that, this, you know, with this policy in place, with this hedging, the 80% of the P50, we expect to cover, you know, pretty much the bulk of the scenarios. What we consider going forward is around the 9 TWh of base load generation in Iberia, and that is our P50. You could consider that 80% of that would be locked in through the period. I mean, it's not immediately up front, but through the period. The remaining would be, of course, exposed to merchant.
On the DG, you're absolutely right. We do operate, but what we're interested in is value and making sure that you can keep local what is local and global what is global. If we have, for example, an operation, we'll be the ones that are driving that. Similarly, for example, in the U.S., we have EDP Renewables operating in the U.S. We don't have anything else apart from EDP Renewables operating in the U.S. We're not going to create a separate platform there. We're going to leverage on the existing platform. That was the, let's say, the philosophy, which has basically allowed it to grow up to now. I think we're already doing a lot in terms of coordination. For example, I mentioned the Faurecia example.
That was actually coordinated across both EDP Brazil and EDP Renewables. Obviously internally, we can then leverage on that and make sure that we're getting the synergies in terms of procurement, that we're getting the synergies in terms of the engineering and design. We don't have any plans to bring it under a single company. I mean, that's something we can continue to go on analyzing, but only if it adds value, if it creates value. If it's just reorganization for reorganization, then it's better to keep the teams motivated and focused on delivering than to be too worried about what's changing sort of at the corporate sector. Local what is local, global where you can get the synergies. Maybe that's what I, what I'd say there.
Well, maybe on the last question then. The target that we commit is that when we are looking to new projects, we look of course to the risk profile, and we wanna make sure that at least 60% is under the long-term contracting nature of the project or the cash flows of the project. We have been achieving that in excess of the 60%. The power curves that we use for the uncontracted period, and we, you know, we have two uncontracted periods. The NOS, let's say, the earlier cash flows, you know, because of the difference in timing of COD and PPA. COD, we may have some short-term, but that's effectively the sort of forward curves that you will see in the market. That will account for a small percentage.
Importantly, the later parts or beyond the contracted period, of course, we have our own views, and we compare always with third-party views, you know, from the typical consultants that the market uses as a reference. And make sure that we, you know, we are never, you know, far apart from whatever those views are. To build that, of course, what we consider is fundamentally, you know, what is a potential market design? I know that nowadays we'll be discussing about market design evolution for Europe, although I can upfront say we are not expecting a revolution. I think that, you know, the dynamics may still hold and definitely is what we're considering for those long-term curves.
Basically what we are considering is sort of, you know, the current market design, and very importantly, the renewables penetration. And what we typically are very prudent as we consider that this renewables penetration will effectively have what we call the solar adjusted factor or the wind adjusted factor, the SAF and WAF, with high percentage. In solar, we, you know, many markets we reach more than 50%. That means that the assets, the realized price of the asset, will be 50% below the average price that comes out from the market. It's a combination of both. As I said, you know, if you take, you know, the third-party views, our curves will not different materially from those on the long term.
Now Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman.
Thank you, and good morning. Three questions on my side. Definitely one of the three is very confusing even to me. Lots to process today, so I apologize in advance. The first one is on returns. What are you seeing in terms of the competitive tension out there? We started to see a change in narrative by the big oils, talking about a lot green molecule, U.S. IRA, much less about green electrons. Do you see that? Is that helping? It doesn't look like it's in your guidance, if I'm right. Maybe if you can give us a bit of color on what EBITDA over CapEx do you now expect given that the WACC is higher, so I expect the absolute ratio should be moving higher and maybe any lights on work in progress.
You know, your CapEx is going up vertical. A lot of the 2026 CapEx I assume has almost no contribution to 2026 EBITDA. Just to be clear on that, because somebody out there might be thinking your returns otherwise implied are quite bad. Just to dispel that. The second question is. Sorry, going back to Javier. 2023, right? We understand you have a Romania Poland tax that is now more manageable because prices are down. The hydro production is already above average. Hedging prices are really good. The question here is, what are the chances you achieve your 24 target in 23? What could go wrong for you not to achieve your 24 in 23? Consensus is close to 1.1. Comfortable, very comfortable with that. The last one.
Sorry, I'll slow down because I see you're taking notes, and apologies for the very long questions. Your CapEx plan is up 25%, which is essentially 100% cost inflation, if I'm not mistaken. That's your CapEx. You've put how much of the U.S. IRA repowering of wind is in the plan. Europe IRA doesn't even exist yet. In two years' time, I know you just presented 2023, but two years' time, you come here, let's say the CapEx cost equipment is the same, should we expect those curves, hypothetically, if those plans get fully implemented, those curves move up again, and clearly you're now fully funded for the next three- five years. Is that how we should be thinking about where you're taking the business?
Sorry about that. I didn't quite catch the end of the third question.
The end of the third question is. Should we expect two years from now, those gigawatt curves to start to go up? Not the CapEx necessary, the gigawatt curves to go up, because now you have a CapEx per gigawatt upgrade driven. Again, investments are driving EBITDA, so I'm very happy it comes from that. I was wondering if on top of CapEx cost inflation, you also have more gigawatts two years from now.
Okay. Let me try and take it maybe backwards. On the, on the third point, clearly we saw a very high increase in CapEx per megawatt. I mean, that's a fact. Whether it's turbines, whether it's solar panels, there was a material jump at the end of 2021. Throughout 2022, we're actually beginning to see, for example, on the solar side, prices begin to come down outside of the U.S. The U.S. has got slightly different dynamics. Going straight to your point, by... I think we have the flexibility, and that's why we try to sort of indicate that depending on where the, let's say, the CapEx per megawatt goes, we can flex the number of megawatts. If it comes down materially over the next couple of years, then you can do more megawatts.
I mean, we size it by euros, and then you result certain megawatts. Keeping the same number of euros, you get more megawatts. That would be the flex they could have, either up or down, to be honest. Obviously, it's gone up a lot, and now we're beginning to see it go down. We're. I would say the U.S. is a specific case, just particularly in terms of solar. Just also to be clear, the costs, the CapEx per megawatt in the U.S. is materially higher than, for example, the rest of the world. I mean, I think there will be a transitional period where the manufacturing industry readjusts to producing either more in the U.S. or adjusting in terms of sort of, importing plus tariffs. They'll sort of end up leveling up.
I think it will stay relatively high CapEx per megawatt in the U.S. It could come down. The thing is that you have the ITCs and the PTCs, which obviously, let's say, make the profitability work out even with the higher CapEx. Maybe. I hope that answers that third question. I think on the second question, I mean, I'm not going to comment on 24 versus 23. I'd say we're very comfortable with consensus. Again, you know, you ask us, or many of you ask us that on a recurring basis. It depends on how the year goes. Expect the unexpected, I mean, in terms of geopolitics and macro, et cetera.
What I'd say is we are comfortable with, you know, or we think we can even exceed the consensus out there for 2023. In relation to the first point, Rui, if you want to take that.
I mean, we see competition out there. We saw it in the past, we still see it. I will not say that we are seeing reduced competition from other developers, regardless of being, you know, the typical ones in the sector or coming from the oil and gas. In the past, where we saw oil and gas being a bit more aggressive is typically on the offshore, not so much on the onshore. Honestly, we haven't seen any dramatic change in terms of the competitiveness or the competitive dynamics within the sector over the last three to six months.
Maybe those that are really the small developers, at this point, we have seen them a bit more willing to actually come up and, you know, agree on selling their projects on a ready-to-build stage, which is normal because capital has been, you know, harder to find, or at least for them, at the appropriate cost. That's why when we look now to this project and to the project returns, I mean, really what we are seeing is we are able to meet our target returns, but at the higher absolute, you know, return value. This 8%-9% is something that, of course, we were not seeing maybe six, nine months or 12 months ago.
The reason why, you know, so, you know, we said it's really important to actually now, you know, play the cycle because this is where the moment in time where we will be able to have higher CapEx, but higher absolute returns. At some point, we'll see a downturn in terms of the cost of capital, but by then, we have already locked in long-term contracts that, you know, fulfill these higher CapEx, so higher PPA prices, higher absolute returns, and then we will be in a very, I think, I would say in a strong position. I'm sorry?
The work in progress.
The work in progress. For 2026, we are estimating above EUR 1 billion. Maybe EUR 1 billion, between EUR 1 billion, EUR 1.5 billion work in progress for 2026. You're welcome.
Javier Ruiz from Barclays. There in the middle.
Thank you, and thanks for the presentation. I have only two questions. The first one is, I mean, you're relying very much on covering the cost inflation by passing through to the final consumers. Last year, we saw a total decoupling between PPA prices and marginal prices. Going forward, you seem to be relying on that decoupling, but the inverse way. Power prices are coming down, and you're expecting PPA prices to increase. Can you please explain me from a client point of view, why would you pay a higher PPA price? The second question is about the scrip dividend at EDP Renováveis. I understand the scrip dividend. You want to keep the cash because you want to reinvest. Why increase the dividend payout?
The only explanation I can find is that you're expecting minority shareholders to go for cash and therefore increase your stake in EDPR. Maybe I'm wrong. Please give me an explanation. Thank you very much.
Okay. On the cost inflation, that translates into higher PPA prices, as you say. I think what we've seen certainly over the last year is that renewables continues to be materially cheaper than the alternatives, certainly than gas, oil, coal, and that's why you have this decoupling. The PPA prices are done not based on what is the margin... on the marginal pricing. That just makes it look more attractive or more competitive. It's done on the apps on the levelized cost of energy of that specific project. You get your typical Excel spreadsheet, you put in the CapEx, you put in your cost of capital, your assumptions for price of energy, and your target returns, and that will be the PPA price that you ask the customer.
I think energy prices would have to come down a lot before the PPA prices stop being competitive. I think what we've seen in the past is that, you know, even before the crisis and before energy prices, the PPA prices were already competitive. Now they've gone up, but still, as I say, significantly below, on a relative basis, much below the alternatives. Even if the others, the alternatives come down, I think, and, you know, we're just talking about whether CapEx also starts coming down. You also, I mean depending on whether it's pay-as-produced, et cetera, maybe you have to complement it with other energy. On the levelized cost of energy is undoubtedly the cheapest energy out there, certainly in Europe and in many other parts of the world.
On the scrip dividend, I mean, we increased the payout because quite frankly, it was very, very low. I mean, the peers, you know, whether you're talking about Acciona or Statkraft or RWEs, I mean, I can give you a list. We had 13% payout. I think it's important that we be aligned with the market. I mean, we wanted to be a responsible company, responsible to the shareholders, give the option. I think we don't know what percentage of minorities will take it up, but we've seen precedents in the market where 70% end up opting for shares, not cash. That's the precedent. I have no idea what the EDPR minorities will do, but the intention was not that they should get the cash or not. I mean, they have the option. That's why we've given it to them.
We will not be taking the cash. We will be reinvesting it back in the business. What I'd say, there's no, let's say, hidden agenda there. It's simply saying, listen, EDPR is already a grown-up company. It should have a dividend policy like a grown-up company, with a payout ratio and then give the option to the shareholders.
Gonzalo from UBS over there.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. A couple of follow-ups on what you've been mentioning on the Q&A. Basically, you said that you set the targets based on the CapEx, and if then you can do more megawatts on the CapEx, then you would do it. My question here, I guess, is, if we see a situation which you said you're not anticipating, but in a situation in which basically power prices, merchant power prices come down faster than the PPAs, at some point, this is not as attractive for customers as you are seeing today, and then you have to do less megawatts. What would you do?
Basically, what is the priority, keeping the amount of CapEx you're doing, in terms of, or megawatts that you're adding, gross, net? How does that play out, in terms of asset rotation and the balance between the two? Second follow-up would be, quite related with that, is basically where do you see the risk for the deliveries of the growth that you're seeing in the plan? I would assume it's maybe riskier at the moment Europe because of the permitting issues you've been mentioning than the rest of regions. I would appreciate your views on that.
If I may, a question on the status of the coal plants and the decommissioning or sales, or if you could update us on the situation in Pecém. You've done quite a few impairments there, but also would assume on the Iberian plants. What is the status and what do you expect to happen with those? Thank you.
Okay. as you said, the targets are based on the CapEx. That's what we're sizing, given the balance sheet, given the, let's say the expectations. Depending on how that CapEx evolves, you get the different megawatts. I mean, that was, I think, Alberto's question. In terms of the if I understood, if the merchant comes down, the question was, is it still competitive? Like, I think if you look at the forwards, let's say TTFs, et cetera, for even for 2026, we're still talking about, you know, EUR 80 per MW hour implied power prices. I think with the current levelized cost of energy that we're getting for solar and wind, those would continue to be competitive.
You know, renewables would continue to be competitive versus those gas prices and the implied pool prices. Am I answering your question? I'm not sure.
Sorry. I will repeat. The question was a bit unclear. If what I was meaning is, your that is your base case. If that happens earlier than you are expecting, basically you get a situation in which you cannot invest as much as you would like because it's no longer competitive for your customers to sign PPAs. Basically, what is the decision whether you just invest less, do less as a rotation, and keep the same amount? That's kind of-
It's a good question. I think there what you've seen, and you've seen that in the past, I mean, this is also a question about greening the economy and about the decarbonization. What you've seen, whether it's the IRA, whether it's the REPowerEU, you will see governments kicking in, particularly in the key hubs where we are, the key regions, to make sure that they are driving that. Whether it's through specific auctions that you've seen in the past, you know, where you do auction for renewables, you know, wind or solar, and you get the price that you get, and you'll be selling to the system. I don't. You know, you could. I think there are three reasons why, you know, people are investing in renewables.
One of them is because they want to go green, that's one of the issues that's been sort of one of the key reasons why Europe has done it in the past, getting to net zero by 2050. The other one is energy independence. They want to force more renewable energy, particularly in countries that don't have their own endogenous sources. Europe, again, is an example, particularly given the crisis we just had with gas coming from Russia. I think they will want to drive renewables in Europe because it's really the only thing that's available at the moment. The third is in terms of costs. If the costs are lower. These first two will continue are political, and they're very, like, ingrained, I think, in society and at a political level.
Even if the prices are not there, let's say take a stress test, and you bring the merchant prices there, I mean renewables were more expensive than fossil fuels in the past, at some points, and still there was a drive to implement that. I continue to see that there will be that push, whether it's here, whether it's in the U.S., to make that happen. Thank you for that. In terms of delivery, listen, obviously, I mean, all business plans have risks, but risks which can be on the upside or on the downside. In terms of delivery of actual megawatts, I say that in Europe, it's more a question of continuing to drive the corporate PPAs and making sure that's happening. In terms of permitting, we're actually expecting things to be relatively straightforward.
I'm here looking at Duarte, who runs Europe for EDPR. I think he'll tell you, or he told me he's quite comfortable with, you know, with getting those type of targets. I'd say in the U.S., it's not so much. The U.S. is probably more about supply chain. There, it's as you move. The demand will be there. The question is, will the supply chain be there in the short term? You know, on the solar side. I think on the wind side, that will be much easier to manage because a big part of the supply chain is already there in the U.S. On the solar side, you know, we're seeing sort of the disruption that we're currently living.
I think that will sort itself out, because I think otherwise, the U.S., if they don't have panels, they won't be able to drive that. It is something which is obviously a risk. I'd say maybe those are the two. I don't know, Rui, if you see any other. I'd say those are probably the sort of some, maybe some of the key risks we're seeing there. On the status of the coal plants. Pecém, the process is ongoing. We will provide news as soon as possible. In Iberia, it's more a question about. Well, actually, because of just even security of supply, some of those coal plants had to come back online last year.
I'd say that those will be reconverted, and we have already been awarded specific support and subsidies by the European Union to be able to reconvert them using what they call the Just Transition Fund, and others, innovation funds, to convert them into renewables plus hydrogen projects. There's a big push by Europe to make this, I mean, using a little bit the catchphrases, but leave no one behind, right? You don't want to just shut down a coal plant and not... The national governments are committed and Europe is committed to making sure that there are, let's say, we can reconvert these and we can transition these into sort of hubs that can create employment and that are, let's say, more aligned with the energy transition. That, I would say, is the Iberian case.
You know, and that's what we're assuming here for the next couple of years.
Jorge Guimarães here from JB Capital.
Hi. Good morning. I have two questions. One is a follow-up from Gonzalo's one. Firstly, how would you see your strategy in an environment where the price mechanism in Europe changes from marginalistic markets to everything, every other alternative, namely for your either exposure? This would be the first one. Sorry. We'll just stick with the first one. The second one has already been answered.
Interesting question. I could give you a very long answer or a sort of shorter answer. The marginal pricing system is not going to change in Europe. I can elaborate on that. I think even the consultation that the European Union is doing now, and they've set out, you know, those questions to everyone, they're not putting...
Questioning the marginal pricing system, certainly for the short-term dispatching. It's an efficient method. It's proven. They've spent 20 years developing it. I think Europe and the various, and, you know, many European countries are committed to that and to keeping that as a core part of the energy market to make sure it's an integrated market. 'Cause if you don't have something like that, you get a total fragmentation and a reregulation of the sector, and I don't think that that's the point. Maybe there's some scenarios, there's some non-papers out there, but I don't think that's where consensus is, and I don't think that's where the European Union is at. You know, we spend a lot of time in Brussels talking to them. That doesn't mean that they're not going to want to incentivize more.
There's a lot of improvements that can be done there. We, as a company, have defended for many years that we should have longer term contracts. For renewables, as you know, we contract typically, you know, 10, 15 or plus years of PPAs or in the auctions. We actually like that type of mechanism. I don't think you have a whole market based on that. You have the complement of the short-term marginal pricing system to dispatch on a daily basis or sort of day ahead, couple of weeks ahead, you have complemented that with the forward sales of PPAs directly to customers or with the centralized systems to do that. That's how we're seeing sort of the conversation evolve.
I think I know the Spanish government has a slightly more radical approach, but, I mean, I think they've gone one extreme. I think there will be improvements. You've seen sort of a bunch of different central and Northern European countries coming out quite strongly with a... Let's say it's an evolution is basically the bottom line.
Just to complement one thing. When you asked about, you know, how, for example, our hydro would, you know, behave. For the numbers of the business plan, what we are considering is that having a mechanism or not in 2024 would. No, it would not be active because we are considering a declining in the power prices. it's not that we are expecting that some sort of mechanism will disappear and then we get exposed to very or to much higher power prices than we have today. Actually, even if it was to hold for a longer period of time, it would not be active. It would be already above the power price. in that sense, I think it's a.
Jenny Ping from Citi.
Thanks very much. Three questions, please. Just following up your comments earlier around going upstream and some of the supply chain restrictions in the U.S. Can you talk a little bit about whether you've thought about going upstream yourself, given the incentives there is available? That would be my first question. Secondly, just looking at your portfolio, Sunseap obviously was one gap that was left in APAC that you effectively filled. I just wondered whether there is any fiscal benefits, in terms of taxes with the restructuring of EDPR Brazil, 'cause obviously you're no longer repatriating dividends and reinjecting it, whether we should see benefits coming through the tax line. Thanks.
So on the up-upstream supply chain, and Rui takes procurement, so he can also give a view on that. If your question is in the sense of would we take equity or would we sort of actually move physically, can we give visibility on off-taking, which gives them more certainty to actually implement those plans? As, let's say the reverse is that we then get guaranteed offtake or, and sort of preferential rights on those, on, let's say, on solar panels with will exist. Going upstream in the sense of actually buying or become, I don't think that's necessarily a good philosophy or a good strategy because you become either dependent on the technology or dependent on a particular supplier. That's not our business.
We haven't done that in the past. I don't think we're different global regions. We now have the four hubs, Europe, U.S., South America, Asia Pacific. We're very comfortable with that. We don't see any gaps. The countries that we are in cover 80% of all the renewables growth that is expected over the next couple of years. For me, that's the 80/20, you know, Pareto principle. If you're in 20% of the countries that represent 80% of the growth, that's good enough. You don't need to go into additional countries or into additional areas. I think it'll bring marginal additional growth and greater complexity. I think we are at the right place. If anything, it's more about going deeper. Now solar, DG, we have to keep our eyes open.
As I mentioned, you know, sort of maybe there are new technologies out there that will come up over time. We'll keep our eyes open to make sure that if that happens, we are a part of that. We haven't identified anything. Nothing's on the agenda. I think we're covering all of the key technologies that we want to be in. I think in terms of gaps, I think we filled out our portfolio. Germany was an area which was missing for us. I think we did that with Kronos, we're very comfortable with that as well. In terms of fiscal benefits, I mean, nothing in particular that I will comment on.
I just say that just general, not specifically just tax, but, which will drive, let's say, the earnings accretion, apart from the intrinsic earnings accretion of the transaction, just given the relative multiples. Also there will be, I think, additional value that we can release. I won't comment much more on that just given that there's an offer over-
From Jefferies. There. Second row.
Hi. Thank you. A few from me. Firstly, on offshore wind, you gave some really good color around the growth profile there. In terms of returns, CapEx has been going up in East Coast and U.K. AR5 on the revenue side in order to protect project returns. Secondly, again, on offshore wind, what % of the 2026 EBITDA is from offshore wind? Thirdly, more generally on renewables, I think last time around, what are the assumptions in the new 2023-2026 plan? Thanks.
In terms of ocean or the offshore and returns, what we are expecting to see is similar to what we saw in the onshore, the PPA prices or the CfD prices in going up. I think we have started already seeing some of that dynamics in U.S. when you're bidding for the PPA. As U.S. have bids where you typically bid to different things or different moments in time. One is to bid for the Seabed lease, the other one is to bid for the long-term contracting or the PPAs or the CfD. I think just several moments. The last auction where we participated in California, it was versus what some people in the market were expecting in terms of very high bids up front.
Actually, it came below. Actually, I think seven bidders only show up for six zones. It shows that, you know, people are of course, you know, with the sector as a whole, being conscious about, you know, what does it mean to commit itself upfront for these event lists. Let's see how the U.K. will evolve on the U.S. side as well. On the PPA side, we are seeing prices going up and effectively compensating for that higher CapEx. Also to be clear in terms of what we have already contracted our PPAs, only 20% is for that project in U.S., and it's actually for half of the project in U.S. I think we shared that information a couple of days ago at the EDPR year-end conference call.
Because that is the project that as of now, we would say if I look at the project as a whole, the returns are still there. For that half, the returns are a bit shorter. We are compensating for the second half. As we go forward, I think that we'll see that improvement in terms of the or increase in terms of the PPAs reflecting the capital, the higher capital, and cost of debt. I mean, on the NPV per MW or per CapEx, I think there we are not showing the number. I'll follow up. We are seeing it a slightly higher number, of course, because, you know, as the overall CapEx, you know, if you increase the CapEx, but also you have better returns.
Overall, the NPV is improving. On a percentage base, I think it's slightly higher, but we'll follow up exactly on that number. I believe that from the offshore, the contribution to EBITDA on the percentage, I think I'll need 'cause I don't have that number here. I will definitely follow up before we end the mee ting.
Okay.
Can go to the next question. Maybe if we don't have more in the room. Javier, just to finish here in the room.
Sorry. Just a quick one on IRRs. It was very useful to see the slide with the 9%, 8%, 7%. Those numbers, if I understand correctly, for solar apply for utility scale solar. If we put together solar DG plus the investments outside the U.S. and the European Union, we get to a decent amount of your CapEx, probably around 30%, if we put together Asia, South America, and solar DG. Am I right in thinking that in those areas you are targeting a double digit IRR? Given the comments you made on solar DG cash returns and the risk profile of the other geographies, is it fair to say that you would be targeting more than 9% IRR in that portion of CapEx? Thank you.
All right. For DG and what was the other part? For?
DG, Sunseap.
Okay
...and South America.
South America for sure. DG in some cases are very high single digit. Sunseap I think as well, depending on the markets. You know, Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Japan, I mean, they have slightly different profiles, so they have different, but high single digit, low double digit. That would be sort of the range we would look for.
We have one more here from the room, from Swarski Marange .
Sorry, just a follow-up, and going back to the beginning of the presentation. Is it possible to clarify the capital increase on the parent company on EDP, namely on the part of the capital that is not open, that is not closed yet? What type of pricing approach will be utilized? Thank you very much.
The pricing will be a typical accelerated bookbuild. It will be based on volumes, prices and, you know, what is an appropriate discount, if any, on for new investors to come in. Knowing that 60% of the book is already filled up, it'll be based on that, on what is left over.
One more here in the room from Alberto.
I promise I'll be quick. If Europe approves the utilization of tax credits, how is this gonna change your business in Europe? Can you step up investments without having to do further equity?
I think we'll need to see the specifics. I think in general it ends up flowing through to the customer, like in the U.S., right? The U.S., the PTCs is basically subsidy to the consumer at the end of the day. I mean, you incorporate it in your calculations, it makes it cheaper for the consumer and which ends up then incentivizing more demand, if you want. In Europe, it would be another way of incentivizing demand for renewables. Potentially it would accelerate that demand on the corporate side. I think we need to see the specifics in terms of how that's actually implemented on a country by country basis. I mean, maybe over the course of this business plan we'll see that, but I think we need to see it in more detail.
If we don't have more questions in the room, maybe we move to. We have a couple of questions in the net. Some of them have been already answered also by the questions in the room. Starting here from Enrico Bartoli from Mediobanca. The question is regarding Distributed Generation. Is a significant part of the investment in the new capacity in the Business Plan, which are the most attractive markets, which returns do you expect from these segments?
The returns parts I think we already touched on. Which are the most attractive markets? I mean, Europe is very attractive at the moment. Brazil is very attractive at the moment. Southeast Asia is very attractive at the moment. The U.S. is very attractive. It's vary a little bit on the dynamics on a country by country basis, but basically, it is, I think a very nice business. Obviously, it's got some slightly different dynamics. Much more customer-facing obviously, but there is a lot of demand there, and I think it's a question of how you scale it up in terms of operations, setting up that sort of, let's say, implementation model.
Still there are some synergies with the utility scale, and I think once you've got that in place, once you've got that machine set up, then it becomes, I think, quite interesting.
Still from Mediobanca and also from Bernstein on U.S. offshore, given in terms of growth potential, and, how do you see the evolution of the market in U.S.?
Sorry, Miguel. I didn't understand the question.
Evolution of the market in OW. How do you see the evolution of OW in terms of U.S., in terms of prospects?
Future. Apart from the three projects that we have, I mean, I think there'll be a lot of tenders there still coming up over the next couple of years. We pointed to that. We try to do this on a... OW, I think, is also evolving in terms of strategy. We would prioritize participating in processes which don't have upfront auctions, to the extent that they are beauty contests or have lower option payments up front. I think we've already managed to develop a large portfolio over this last 12, 24 months, we don't need or, you know, depending on the countries, but to go in for those fantastic, you know, great auctions up front for the government, which aren't necessarily fantastic for the consumer. We prioritize those, but in some cases we will go for those.
In the U.S., typically you'll have that. The California example is actually a great example for us in which we did go for one of these auction type processes, but it worked out very well because there's seven bidders for six sites. I think, I mean, we got a lot of calls after saying for people that were very surprised because there had been 40 bidders originally signed up. Actually, only seven showed up. We, I think we got a very attractive concession sort of at a very low option price. On a case-by-case basis, we'll consider it. Otherwise, we'll try and prioritize more sort of open processes. The U.S., we might, I mean, it'll depend on the process, but if they keep this current, we might not increase it that much more.
Oh, no. I would just take the opportunity to go back to the question about OW's weight in the financials. It's less than 5% of the net income over the period because it's an equity consolidation and it's, you know, development stage. The only operational capacity is the one that we have here. It will be less than 5% of the net income.
Okay. I think I was just running through the questions. I think most of them have already been covered in the previous questions. We have here a last one also from Enrico Bartoli from Mediobanca. Could you please provide details on how you think you'll allocate new renewable capacity in Europe to different countries? In particular, what level of potential capacity growth is offered by entering the German market?
I think the fact that we are already present in 12 European markets means we can take advantage of the different dynamics in each market as auctions come up or as, you know, the corporates develop that. We have obviously a strong presence already in Spain, we have in Portugal. I think Kronos specifically, we're expecting around year-over-year, if I'm not mistaken, just looking at the numbers here, I think around half a gigawatt per year. Lars, can you correct me? Okay. That leaves us some optionality. One of the things we're also doing with Kronos is mostly solar, but we're also developing the wind part. That's what I think we bring to the table, a little bit like Sunseap as well. We have quite a lot of wind expertise.
These are mostly solar companies, so we continue developing the solar, but we bring on top of that platform also the ability to do onshore wind. I think in Germany, that will also have an interesting upside there. Depending on permitting.
Well, if you don't have any final question, I'll pass to Miguel for closing remarks.
I mean, all I have to say is thank you very much for the time that you've taken to be here today. I know it's been a long session, but hopefully useful and interesting. We really wanted to share with you, and I think the excitement that we have about the prospects, because we truly believe in the sector, we believe in the company, and I think in that sense, be able to share with you what are our views about the sector and about what we can do over the next couple of years. As I mentioned, I think on a previous call, it might be a bumpy ride, but I have no doubt that it will be a very successful one. I'm sure we'll keep in touch over the next coming quarters and let you know how things are going.
Thank you very much.