EDP Renováveis, S.A. (ELI:EDPR)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 28, 2023

Operator

Good afternoon. We welcome you to the EDP Renewables 2022 full year results presentation conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions after the presentation. If you wish to ask the question during the Q&A session, you may do so by pressing the star key followed by five on your telephone keypad. If you're experiencing any difficulty in listening to the conference at any time, please make sure you have your headset fully plugged in, or alternatively, please try calling from a different device. I'll now hand the conference over to Miguel Viana, Head of IR and ESG. Please go ahead, sir.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending EDPR 2022 results conference call. We have here with us our CEO, Miguel Stilwell de Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, who will run you through the key highlights of our 2022 execution and the financial results. We'll then move to Q&A, in which we'll be taking your questions both by phone or written questions that you can insert from now onwards in our conference webpage.

This call should last less than 60 minutes. Given that this time, this is a special point, given that we'll have our capital markets day on the next Thursday, we'll ask you to focus your questions on our 2022 performance and more short-term issues related with the 2022 or 2023 beginning of the year. I will give you now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stilwell d'An drade.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Thank you, Miguel, and good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to share with you, I think, a strong set of results for 2022. I mean, we are living a unique moment of strong acceleration of the energy transition and the renewables growth prospects, positive for EDP Renewables. This is supported very much by a couple of different things: the ongoing implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., following the approval by the Congress last August, also the more recent developments of the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan. A set of very positive developments, also we're seeing quite a lot of movement on the permitting legislation at the level of several countries in which we're present in, which is supporting also the acceleration of the renewables development over the next couple of years.

We can go to the results, if we move to slide 4, we can see that our revenues reached around EUR 2.4 billion. We're talking about 100%, 99.5% aligned with the EU taxonomy, it shows a 35% increase year-on-year on the back of solid operational performance, with installed capacity 9% higher year-on-year and generation increasing also 10% year-on-year. We also saw significant improvement in our average selling price to EUR 65 per megawatt hour, which means a 21% rise year-on-year, supported by a repricing mostly in the European markets. EBITDA increased to EUR 2.2 billion, +23% year-on-year.

It includes already the negative impact of the regulatory clawbacks in Europe for a total of almost EUR 100 million in our P&L in 2022, mostly from three countries, so Romania, Italy and Poland. It includes EUR 424 million of asset rotation gains, five transactions, successful transactions in different markets and... of wind and solar technologies. Our E-EBITDA, excluding the asset rotation gains, showed a strong 40% increase year-on-year. This reflects, I think, the good underlying operational performance of the company. Recurring net profit increased 2% to EUR 671 million, or 57% year-on-year, excluding the contribution for, from the ongoing asset rotation activity, and that, you know well. 2022 was also a year of investment in future growth.

We had gross investments reaching EUR 5.1 billion, almost doubling versus 2021, including the entry into the APAC market with the acquisition of Sunseap and also the entry into Germany and the Netherlands with the acquisition of Kronos. Net Debt EBITDA, 2.3 times. Including the investment ramp-up with renewables projects under constructions, reaching 4 gigawatts in December. Regarding our 2022 dividend, and as you will have seen also from the results or the communication with the market, the board of directors is proposing a change in the dividend policy, introducing the EDPR scrip dividend program. We're upgrading the target payout to 30%-50%, but with this additional flexibility in the way that it's received.

As you know, EDP has also announced that it intends to take shares, and not sell those bonus shares. We'll talk a little bit about that in a couple of slides. If we move on to the next slide, let's just talk quickly about the asset rotation. Again, in 2022, EDPR surpassed its business plan targets in terms of asset rotation. It continues to bring excellent returns to our portfolio, and I think it shows clearly the value creation that we are capable of. We also continued to see strong demand for renewable assets throughout 2022. In terms of capacity, we sold around 1 gigawatt in 2022, so below the 1.4 gigawatt year average that we had in the business plan, but we got above the proceeds assumed in the business plan.

Above all, I mean, this capacity involves 5 transactions, as I mentioned, good diversification of markets and technologies, an overall multiple of around EUR 1.8 million per megawatt. In terms of capital gains, we reached an average gain of around EUR 400 million or EUR 400 thousand per megawatt. A total gains of around EUR 0.9 billion when you sum up 2021 and 2022. Clearly above, let's say, the average of EUR 300 million that we had in the business plan. Finally, just talking about the returns, if you look at it as, let's say, asset rotation gains over invested capital, which perhaps is also a good way of looking at this. I mean, we also surpassed the business plan expectations, meaning we continue to have attractive returns as expected.

Just in the year of 2022 with, you know, all the volatility and the increase in interest rates, et cetera, that you know. I think a big part of this is because it was different markets, different technologies. I think it shows our ability to really do good capital allocation and take advantage of different market dynamics. If we move to slide six, let's talk about something that we communicated to the market also at the beginning of the year. We'd mentioned a potential risk of around EUR 0.3 billion. The fact is that there's significantly lower clawback costs expected now for 2023 because prices have come down, and there have also been some positive developments on the regulatory amendments in, particularly in Poland and Romania.

Taking a step back, we know 2022 has been a tough year in terms of regulation in Europe. I mean, a lot of moving pieces. Obviously many member states implementing measures to try and protect the final consumers from the impact of the price volatility and the price increases. Clawbacks were implemented in a number of different countries in Europe, and impacted us around EUR 100 million in the year. I think for me, the point is not so much the clawbacks when they're well implemented. We can discuss by principle whether we think we agree with them or not, at least they should take into account hedgings, and they should take into account sort of forward sales that have already been done. Most countries did that correctly. In the case of Poland and Romania, that wasn't done, correctly.

We flagged the potential EUR 0.3 billion of impact. As I mentioned, that has now come down a lot. It's around EUR 0.1 billion at the moment for both Poland and Romania. Decline in the energy prices, closer to the regulatory price cap so that we don't get the sort of double impact. Also some amendments under discussion in Poland and Romania to either fix or at least reduce the impact from the clawback taxation on the unrealized profits. Hopefully, this will also reduce some of the risk that we have for the year. Let's move on to Slide 7. Here talking about offshore wind execution, which again is a topic which comes up often. I think 2022 was a good year.

As you can see that we have already 1.5 gigawatts in operation, had excellent operational outperformance over the year, and particularly the gigawatts, Moray East. We have 1 gigawatt under construction relating to Moray West, and also 1 gigawatt relatively close to FID for the French project. I think one of the good things about our offshore portfolio is it's got good economics, most of it inflation-linked revenues with a clear visibility on the CapEx and on the supply chain. That obviously, as you know, is important in volatile times. During 2022, we were awarded 8 gigawatts of seabed leases. Clearly, I think this is one of the areas where we did very well versus the previous business plan.

Regarding secured revenues, more than 80% is in Europe, with revenues linked to inflation and less than 20% in the U.S. regarding our project on the South Coast, Mayflower. Overall, I mean, we're talking about a total development or DevEx to date of less than EUR 200,000 per MW. We still have relatively little capital employed in these projects. The project is expected to become operational only in 2028, 50% of its capacity is still to be contracted. We will be able to contract the remaining capacity of Mayflower on terms and conditions which reflect the latest market conditions. All in all, Ocean Winds reached a portfolio of 16.6 GW in 2022.

Almost tripling the 6.6 gigawatts it had at the beginning of 2021, in the space of 2 years. To move on to slide 8. Talking a little bit about the dividend policy. As I mentioned, we upgraded the target payout to 30%-50%. This is much more in line with what peers, similar peers of renewable players, have in the sector. At the same time, we wanted to introduce flexibility. We believe EDPR is very much a growth company, and it's important to go on capitalizing the company. We replaced the ordinary dividend, ordinary cash dividend, with a remuneration program, which basically gives optionality to the shareholders, so the scrip dividend.

This works through a capital increase through a bonus issue. For the year of 2022, we're essentially assuming EUR 275 million of distribution, representing around 40% of EDPR's 2022 results. In the middle of the payout ratio or the payout range that I just mentioned. Just technically how it will work, EDPR shareholders will be allocated incorporation rights, and they can opt between receiving bonus shares, selling the incorporation rights to EDPR at a fixed price, or selling the incorporation rights in the Euronext market at trading prices. With this program, EDP Renewables increases its dividend payout to 30 50%. Shareholders also get a flexible way of getting that, let's say, which I think optionality in this case is positive.

As I mentioned, EDP will be opting for shares, and it's basically prioritizing reinvesting back into the company rather than taking cash out of EDPR. We believe this will be accretive growth, and so we'll be taking the shares. Let's move on to slide 9. Just to say that, as you know, EDPR is the largest European-listed, 100% renewable player. ESG is at the core of our strategy and the operations. I think the year-on-year evolution reflects this growth and the implementation of best standards. We can start just by giving a couple of highlights. In terms of environmental performance, 99.5, and I think we've got a commitment to get this to 100% because we struggled to find a 0.5% that wasn't eligible. Turnover and CapEx fully aligned with the EU taxonomy.

As I say, our core business is 100% focused on renewables. We avoided the emission of 20 million tons of CO2, so benefiting from the increase in energy production and actively contributing to the global challenge of net zero. On the social dimension, number of employees has now reached over 3,000 employees, so it's increased around 40% year-on-year. In terms of diversity, percentage of female employees is currently at 33%, so also increasing versus last year. In terms of employee wellbeing, the engagement on our employee climate survey is at 86%, an increase versus last year of 7 percentage points. Also a very positive score, which I think shows how people see themselves in the purpose and in the mission of EDP Renewables.

Also, we'd like to say that we've been included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook, which distinguishes companies within their industries that have demonstrated real strength in corporate sustainability. We've also been recognized by Sustainalytics as an ESG top-rated company within our industry, given our low-risk score. All in all, I think on the ESG front, EDP Renewables continue to do very, very well. If we move on to slide 10. Just before I pass over to Rui, we have scaled up delivery. We have continued to expand. We've had excellent asset rotation execution. We have a very strong top line taking advantage of the current market conditions. Focusing on growth, we have 11.4 gigawatts of secured capacity, including the 4 gigawatts under construction, so supporting the additions for 2023 and beyond.

We've more than doubled our offshore portfolio from the 6.6 GW we had in the beginning of 2021 to the 16.6 that I mentioned for Ocean Winds. We've established the Asia-Pacific platform on the back of the Sunseap acquisition, and that gives us, I think, also good, strong growth prospects. We've scaled up our European position, so entering Germany, which as you know, is absolutely key core European market and that we expect will explode over the next couple of years. I think that will give us great optionality on that side. On value, as I mentioned, we've outperformed in the asset rotation and had here an excellent, well, let's say EUR 0.5 billion per year of EBITDA gains versus the EUR 300 million that we had in the business plan.

Clear value creation in the projects that we're developing. On excellence, we've been continuing to manage the full value chain, delivering competitive and quality projects at high excellence standards. Overall, great value creation for all stakeholders, given that we also surpassed both the EBITDA net profit 2023 targets, one year ahead, despite all the market turbulence. I'll just pause there and pass it over to Rui to walk you through the 2022 results, and then I'll come back for closing remarks. Thank you.

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon to you all. Now let's move to the 2022 results. Starting at slide 12, during 2022, we installed 2.1 gigawatts. We sold 0.9 gigawatts through the asset rotation program. Thus, our portfolio grew to 14.7 gigawatts with a very balanced mix across North America with 49%, Europe with 38%, Brazil 8%, and APAC 5%. By the end of the year, capacity under construction reached a record volume of 4 gigawatts of both solar and wind. This is contributing further to the portfolio diversification. The renewable resource was slightly higher year-on-year at 30%. That's a 1 percentile point growth versus last year, reflecting an improved renewables index just 2% below the expected long-term average.

All in all, our electricity output increased 10%, benefiting from capacity additions and the higher renewable resource. As a result, EDPR generated 34.4 terawatt-hours of clean energy, avoiding 20 million tons of CO2 emission. How this translates into operational results on slide 13, you can see that EDPR ended 2022 with an EBITDA growth of 40% year-on-year. This excludes asset rotation gains to EUR 2.2 billion, backed by outstanding top-line performance. It's 10% higher electricity production and 21% higher average selling prices. Strong capital gains as well from asset rotation with a total EUR 424 million, impacting our 2022 EBITDA. This performance was partly offset by EUR 98 million of regulatory clawbacks in Europe.

If we exclude asset rotation capital gains, the operational portfolio EBITDA increased by 51% in Europe, 14% in North America and 3.2 times in South America, APAC, and others. The asset rotation gains for the year amounted to EUR 424 million, as I said before. That's less EUR 99 million versus 2021, but substantially above the average guidance in our business plan 2021-2025, with 5 asset rotation deals closed with very robust multiples. Finally, EBITDA was also impacted by regulatory clawbacks in the year, as I've mentioned, all in all, EUR 98 million, EUR 63 million are impacting here, and the remaining impact is EUR 35 million at the corporate tax level.

I want to highlight that these costs are not yet reflecting the five-year pre-hedges that we executed back in the summer of EUR 1 billion at 1.8% and $1 billion at 2.6% that will be used for the 2023, 2024 refinancing needs. Net debt on slide 15 is of course supporting EDPR growth in line with the strong target additions. As of December 2022, our net debt was EUR 4.2 billion. That's an increase of EUR 2 billion versus December 2021. Of course, this reflects, in one hand, the 0.8 strong recurring organic cash flow, EUR 0.8 billion, and EUR 2.4 billion in net expansion investment.

This includes also in one hand, the CapEx, the acquisition of Sunseap in APAC, Kronos in Central Europe, and equity investments at the Ocean Winds, as well as some Forex impact. On the other hand, the asset rotation strategy, which net of gains, means EUR 2 billion of proceeds during the year of 2022. Despite this increase in net debt versus last year, balance sheet remains very strong, with a solid Net Debt EBITDA ratio of 2.3 times in 2022. On the net profit. Net profit growth was supported by the top-line performance, partly offset by the higher financial costs, as already explained. Taxes impacted by the EUR 35 million Italian tax clawback mechanism, along also with some jurisdiction-specific taxation on capital gains. Also, minorities performance links to positive evolution in portfolio held by non-controlling interests.

Our reported net profit includes a EUR 54 million non-cash impairment or it's a provision, accounted at the depreciations and amortizations level related to the impact of a project-specific construction delays in Colombia. Really, despite another challenging year for the sector, we have been able to operate efficiently our portfolio and our recurring net profit totaled EUR 671 million. It's growing 57% year-on-year if we exclude capital gains, or 2% year-on-year if we include the capital gains. With this, I would hand over to Miguel for the closing remarks. Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Thank you, Rui. Listen, just to finalize the presentation, just a couple of key takeaways. First, we have strong top-line performance in 2022. This was driven by increase in generation, average realized price. That led to an increase in EBITDA of, you know, to reach EUR 2.2 billion, 40% year-on-year, excluding gains, 23% year-on-year with the gains. In recurring net profits, 2% up, excluding asset rotation gains, 57% up year-on-year. Clearly, we didn't need asset rotation gains to reach the net profit of the previous year. Second point, I think we continue to see very good asset rotation execution in 2022.

five transactions, five different markets, EUR 2 billion of proceeds, more than EUR 400 million of capital gains, doubling the target gain per megawatt, to reach the EUR 400,000 per megawatt. Clearly, I think very impressive asset rotation execution. Third point, in 2022, a lot of European measures came out, European regulatory clawbacks. We accounted for around EUR 100 million of that in the 2022 accounts. For 2023, we flagged that we were worried. We'd already flagged that in the third quarter results, and we flagged that again at the beginning of the year, worried with Poland and Romania. Fortunately, that things have seemed to calm down, so the EUR 0.3 billion has now come down to EUR 0.1 billion, so materially less, you know, and depending on the forward prices, could be lower impact.

We're comfortable with the 0.1 at the moment. Fourth point, EDPR's dividend policy. We've aligned it with peers, so it's more attractive. At the same time, we've ensured that we can continue to capitalize the company. The program, the scrip dividend structures through a capital increase, through the bonus issue, as I mentioned, but I'll just reiterate so there's no misunderstanding, EDP will be opting for shares, so it will not be taking cash out of EDPR. Overall, renewables global outlook continues to improve. I mean, we continue to see that, and we currently have around 4 gigawatts under construction. Finally, I just say, listen, we had targets in our previous business plan for 2023 for EBITDA net profits. We have reached those targets in 2022.

I think it's a good segue to say that we'll talk more about targets at the capital markets day on Thursday. With that, I'd probably stop there and turn it over to Q&A. Thank you.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

Okay. We can go now to Q&A, starting with the questions on the line.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by 5 on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from the line of Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Alberto Gandolfi
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I'm going to try to stick to 22. I'd like to start from the scrip dividend announcement from last night. I have my own theory, and I can see where this is coming from. I was just wondering if you can comment. I know I need to wait for Thursday for full disclosure, but is this part of a wider plan to preserve capital and fund incremental growth? This is an extremely qualitative question, just to understand the philosophy, the logic around, you know, higher payout ratio and scrip. Is this trying to tell us there's less growth and so more payouts? I suspect not. Is it part of let's strengthen balance sheets preparing for what's coming? The second question is related to the first one.

I guess that, considering more disclosure on the U.S. IRA and considering we have seen some papers from the European Commission and very strong statements by the EU, can you share some initial comments? You know, I suspect you probably, again, tell us quite a lot on Thursday, but the U.S. IRA, do we know enough today to start working towards higher growth? Again, extremely qualitative, not asking targets. Last question here, Miguel, you talked about surpassing 2022 targets. Is there anything in 22 that could not be sustainable going forward? Why wouldn't you surpass targets going forward? I'm trying to understand what worries you a little bit. Maybe the asset rotation gains, maybe prices. You only added 1.1 gigawatt last year, so maybe that's an offset.

Can you maybe elaborate on how much of this 22 you can bring with you for the future years? Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Thank you, Alberto. Listen, I'll try to answer this without preempting, I guess Thursday. The scrip dividend, as I mentioned, it gives us flexibility. We're increasing the payout, but you get the option to take shares. I'm sure you can also run some maths on what could be, let's say, an estimate of what minorities take up in terms of cash versus shares. We believe we'll probably end up having less cash coming out of EDPR as a result than with the current dividend policy. Even though we increase the payout, actually, probably we have less cash coming out. What I can say is we definitely see a lot of growth. We see a lot of growth coming. We already see it now, and we believe it will only continue to increase.

I'm not going to talk to a wider plan. I'll just say that obviously, you know, measures which allow us to continue capitalizing the company, like the scrip dividend are obviously positive, and we believe in, you know, in making sure we have the balance sheet to continue to grow that. You know, the truth is we have a solid balance sheet. We've had strong performance. You know, and I think that positions us well to take advantage of that growth going forward. In terms of the second point, again, from a very qualitative, because I will talk more about it obviously on Thursday. You know, we are very excited about both the U.S. IRA and also about the European Green Plan. Do we know enough?

I mean, we certainly know enough to know that this will have an impact on growth. You know, we can get into more details, as I say, on Thursday. You know, just that long-term visibility, that additional incentives, the sort of the additional tailwind that it provides, I think, to investments on the renewables, all of these different issues that we've been talking about, I think, in the past, lead us to believe that, yes, we know enough to believe that there will be more growth. I mean, it's a broad qualitative statement, but I think it's for us, it's unquestionable that that is resulting. The IRA, there's still details that are coming out in terms of actually how it will be applied, etc.

It doesn't materially change sort of the underlying strength of the, of those plans. On the third point, so the 2022 targets. Listen, I think, you know, we've been flexible in how we manage, but I think the point is we had a fantastic underlying year in terms of selling prices, in terms of volumes, in terms of... I mean, just generally, I think it's quite a positive year. You can see that when, sort of on the pre-asset rotation gains. We had a good asset rotation year, but we didn't need to do more. I think we can all flex this. I would, you know, I think there's a big part of this that we, that we can take forward. Obviously, the prices will evolve as they evolve, and you can run the numbers on that.

We have also 4 gigawatts under construction at the moment, so we'll have a lot more megawatts generating over the next couple of months, years. Yes, I mean, I think it is sustainable. It's,

Alberto Gandolfi
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

It's going to be a bumpy ride, but it's going to be a positive trajectory is what I'll say.

Alberto Gandolfi
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Much better. We can go to the next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Javier Garrido from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Javier Garrido
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Three quick questions, if I may. The first one is, you can tell us what is the amount of volumes that you have hedged in Spain for 2023 and at what price? The second question is on Sunseap. Is the EBITA margin that we saw in 2022 sustainable? I guess not. You can give us an indication of where you see the sustainable EBITA margin in those operations. The third question is on Mayflower. You have mentioned in the presentation that half of it is yet to be contracted, but that means also half of it is contracted now. We have seen Ørsted booking impairments in one of their U.S. offshore assets, Iberdrola abandoning PPAs. What is your stance on the existing PPAs of Mayflower? Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Thank you, Javier. Rui, do you want to take the first one, and then I'll take the second and third?

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

Okay.

You know, for the Spanish hedges at EDPR, we're talking about prices, you know, above 90. Pretty much I would say that we have it, I would say, around 90% hedged, 80%-90% hedged. Miguel, if you want to take on.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Yep. Listen, on the Sunseap EBITA margin, I mean, I think Generally, we're quite positive that the margins will continue to be there. As we go on getting more critical mass in Asia, we'll definitely be able to, I think, even improve on these. There are obviously initial startup costs, as is normal when you're setting up a new platform.

You know, given there is considered or we're considering a substantial amount of growth over the next couple of years, that margin will continue to increase. On Mayflower, I mean, yes, obviously, you can see the glass half full, half empty, I think, versus versus peers. I think it's half full in the sense that 50% is still to be contracted. I mean, we have no doubt that the overall blended will be positive, we don't see any reason to do any impairment on this. Thank you.

Javier Garrido
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Enrico Bartoli from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Enrico Bartoli
Equity Research Analyst of Utilities and Renewables, Mediobanca

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. First question is related to if you can elaborate a bit on pricing expectations for 2023. You mentioned you're hedging in Spain. If you can give some flavor on what you expect in the other European markets and in the US compared to 2022. The second question also is very qualitative. If you can give some insight on what is your perception of the appetite for asset rotation assets in this moment, considering the evolution interest rates. If you can give some details of what you can expect for 2023. The last one is related to the cost of debt.

You mentioned that the financial results we saw in 2022 don't include the pre-hedging. Can you also, in this case, provide some comments on the evolution of interest charges that you expect for 2023? Thank you.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

Thank you, Enrico. Listen, I'll do the first two, and then Rui, if you want to do the third. On pricing expectations, I mean, clearly we continue to see the prices coming up over the year of 2022 and even the beginning of 2023. You know, and they're good statistics. I mean, we'll expect to show you that also on Thursday, to be honest. What I'd say is that, you know, we're seeing PPA prices, for example, in the U.S. I mean, even recently, just looking at some sort of in the high 60s, 70. In Europe, in many countries, you know, also in that type of range in euros. Obviously, it depends then on the tenure, whether it's 5, 10, 15 years.

Let's say for a 10, 15 year tenure, you can clearly be in the sort of 60s, 70s. As I say, that does depend a little bit by markets, but we can get a bit more into that. On the perception of asset rotation, as I mentioned, the fact that we did five portfolios in five different markets means we can flex quite a bit depending on the market dynamics. I can give you a very easy example, which is Brazil. I mean, Brazil has been at a high cost of capital last year. It's still the same this year. It's not going up, but I think it might even come down. You know, we continue to believe we can get good asset rotation gains on that. We see the demand is there, which is the important part.

You know, and then obviously there's an issue around pricing, but energy prices are also higher. You saw the Italian transaction last year. I mean, that was a record multiple, and that was done in August. You know, we already had very high, you know, or rising interest rates, and yet you had super high energy prices that more than compensated for that. As long as demand is there, these continue to be high-quality assets. You know, it will continue to be part of our strategy. On the cost of debt, Rui.

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

Sure. Yes. I mean, of course, we'll be providing a bit more information Thursday in terms of how we see the, you know, the cost of funding evolving over the period of the business plan. Maybe just a couple of data points. One is again to highlight that as yields are going up, then of course the base will go up. Back in summer 2022, we hedged, we pre-hedged our, you know, our interest rate, the base interest rates with the EUR 1 billion and $1 billion. That pre-hedging means that we have already locked in the cost of funding in both currencies as we, you know, look into refinancing the 2022, sorry, the 2023 and 2024, you know, financing needs that we'll have.

Again, in EUR was at 1.8%, the base rate, and then in $ was 2.6%. Again, I stress this because this means that, you know, whatever the yield you can see on the screen, that will apply of course for some part of the refinancing needs, but not to this $1 billion and the EUR 1 billion. All in all, what I would say is that, you know, we should, in any case, I would expect to see sort of a, you know, pretty much the same levels of cost of debt overall, as we are seeing for 2022, around the 4%. In any case, we will be providing more information on the, you know, during the Thursday's presentation.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jenny Ping from Citi. Please go ahead.

Jenny Ping
Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst of Utilities, and New Energy, Citi

Thanks so much. A couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, just going back to the scrip, I just wanna understand a bit more your thinking around that. If the aim is to reduce the cash outflow, you know, why change the dividend policy? Why not just offer a scrip on the current dividend policy as we stand? Sort of linked to that, clearly, there will be a dilutive impact from the scrip, which is kind of seen as a series of mini equity raises. Is there a way that you would look to cap the level of dilution at some stage? You know, is there a maximum sort of impact which you would look to then offset beyond at that point? Thanks very much.

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

All right, sure. Listen, I think what we wanted to do is make sure that we are aligned with peers in terms of the payout policy because I think that's important in terms of the competitiveness and attractiveness of EDPR, but at the same time, giving that flexibility. As you rightly say, it is a way of capitalizing the company. We don't have any intention or we haven't defined any cap on the level of dilution. You know, as I mentioned, this decision is taken on a yearly basis by EDP, but we will be taking shares for the foreseeable future because we think it's an appropriate way to continue to, or part of the way to continue to fund the business going forward.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

Okay. We go now to some questions on the web. Starting with a question from Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. Could you please provide more details around potential or actual improvements in the Romanian and Polish windfall tax schemes and the impact that referred? That went down from 0.3 to 0.1.

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

Okay. Arthur, thank you for the question. It's Rui here. Yes, I mean, just to be clear, there have been some amendments already passed in both countries, in Poland and Romania. In Poland, there was a big improvement as the hedges are, you know, considered. However, still, you know, it's unclear if only the hedges within the Polish jurisdiction would be considered or not, something that we will have to clarify. There was definitely, you know, a very positive step forward as the hedges now are considered for the global calculation. In Romania, there was an improvement with the elimination of the cap of the 5% in the deviation of generation volumes, so these balancing costs versus the forecast.

Here in Romania, we still need some further improvements, you know, because the hedges are not yet considered for the calculation of the global, so that withholding tax is still applied. I would also stress the following. As we saw this, the overall amount reducing from the 0.3 to approximately EUR 0.1 billion, we are also in parallel trying to crystallize that position and working around to crystallize that so that, you know, regardless of the regulatory involvements, then we, you know, we get no further exposure to this sort of price swings and to price increases in the future. As if and when we do that, of course, we would communicate it to the market.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

Okay. We have another question also coming from Skye Landon from Jefferies. Could you give some detail on the NPV over CapEx for the Brazil project and also the US solar project now closed in December? This seems to be the expectations, and additional info would be useful.

Rui Teixeira
CFO, EDP Renováveis

Okay. Thanks, Skye. So what I can say is that, for Brazil, it's basically what I think we also mentioned in the third quarter results. So around 60%, we did have Forex covered with hedges, so we weren't impacted by changes in Forex. For the U.S. solar transaction, it's not quite as comparable because it's a build and transfer. The economics are different, but they're still double digits in terms of NPV over CapEx.

Miguel Viana
Head of Investor Relations and ESG, EDP Renewables

I think this is what we have from the web. I'll pass now to our CEO for final remarks.

Miguel Stilwell d'Andrade
CEO, EDP Renewables

I mean, I won't talk very much because, as I say, we have the capital markets day on Thursday. I'll just reiterate, I think we had a strong set of 22 results. We think we had a good performance, certainly both on the underlying business and also on the asset rotations. We are seeing strong growth coming through in the various different geographies, we are taking advantage of that. Well, I think important to note, as I mentioned, that we hit the 22, the 23 targets in 2022, and I think, as I mentioned, that's a good segue for when we come back on Thursday to talk to you. Thank you very much, I guess talk to you soon. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's event. We thank you for your participants. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect your lines.

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