Good afternoon. We welcome you to EDPR's 2025 Final Year Results Presentation Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions after the presentation. If you wish to ask a question during the question and answer session, you need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again.
You may also submit questions on the webcast at any time by typing them in the question box and click Submit. If you're experiencing difficulty in listening to the conference at any time, please make sure that you have your headset fully plugged in, or alternatively, please try calling from a different device. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Miguel Viana, Head of IR and ESG. Please go ahead.
Hello and welcome, everyone, thank you for joining EDPR's 2025 results conference call. We are pleased to have with us today our CEO, Miguel Stilwell de Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira. They will walk us through the key financial highlights of the period and share insights into our strategy. After the presentation, we'll open the floor for questions, and you are welcome to submit via the conference chat or ask them directly over the phone. Session is scheduled to last no more than 60 minutes. With that, I will now hand it over to Miguel Stilwell de Andrade to begin the presentation.
Thank you, Miguel. Good afternoon, everyone, thank you very much for attending our 2025 results conference call. Just before we move into EDPR's results, I just wanted to take a brief moment to acknowledge the severe storms that recently affected Portugal, in particular, Storm Christine, at the end of January. Some of you may be aware, but maybe others haven't been following. This was a really exceptional weather event, significant impact on the communities, on the electricity networks operated by EDP in Portugal. First and foremost, our thoughts are with the people in the communities affected. Having personally witnessed up close the devastation on the ground over the past couple of weeks, I think clearly a lot of work to rebuild the area, and we're also contributing to that at the social level.
I'd also like to take a moment to recognize and extend a sincere word of appreciation for the absolutely extraordinary efforts of all the teams, both internal and external, involved in the response and in the recovery in extremely adverse conditions. I just wanted to highlight also the fantastic collaboration and coordination with the national and the local authorities that allowed the networks business, E-Redes, to recover 100% of the customers, with only still a few specific situations outstanding and we believe will be resolved very, very shortly. The teams have been working flat out, nonstop, weekends, and holidays to get the energy back to everyone as quickly as possible. From EDPR perspective, the direct operational and financial impact was limited. Our renewable assets proved resilient, and the event does not change our fundamentals, the strategy, or the outlook.
That said, at EDP's results call tomorrow, we'll give more detail, but as part of the EDP group, we just thought it was important to acknowledge the broader context in which we're operating, particularly when an extraordinary event impacts the system as a whole. With that, okay, let's go to the first slide. Talk about EDPR's results and performance for 2025. I'd start by saying that 2025 was really a very solid recovery versus 2024. Execution was the key word, absolute focus on executing everything under our control. We delivered on our targets, we kept a disciplined financial profile, and we set up a constructive base for 2026. On financial performance, recurring EBITDA reached around EUR 2 billion, it's up 17% year- on- year, and it's above our latest guidance level.
The underlying EBITDA was at around EUR 1.9 billion, up 23%, confirming that the improvement is fundamentally operational. Importantly, we delivered these results while keeping financial discipline. Net debt closed at EUR 8.1 billion, slightly down versus 2024, consistent with our guidance. The ratio net debt to recurring EBITDA improved from 4.9 in 2024 to 4.1 in 2025. A very strong improvement in our leverage position. In terms of key operational drivers, we delivered the 2 GW of gross capacity additions. Generation was up 11% to 40.6 TWh, and we navigated also a normalization in prices in Europe, with the average selling price down 10% to EUR 53 per MWh.
Despite that, which was expected, the combination of top-line performance with efficiency initiatives supported the recovery in earnings. That leads me to the point on efficiency. Core OpEx per average megawatt decreased 12% versus last year. I mean, this really shows a huge improvement in efficiency and quite honestly, very proud of this achievement. There was tremendous effort done by the teams on the efficiency front, on leveraging economies of scale. We actually ended up better than expected, and as I mentioned, that supported the recovery also in earnings. After rotation gains in the P&L were around EUR 119 million, so below 2024, but fully in line with the guidance, especially considering we were also very successful in rotating 49% of a large U.S. portfolio.
As you know, in that case, the capital gain doesn't fall to the bottom line. Overall, strong execution, improving profitability and financial discipline, supporting a positive outlook going into 2026. Moving now to a little bit more detail on some of the key operational issues. On slide five, 2 GW long-term contracted additions, around 90% in North America and Europe. It's a good mix, led by solar, 48%, wind onshore, 28%, and the growing weight of batteries around 17%. Offshore, small project in France, 6%. In terms of concrete execution milestones, this includes around half a GW of solar in the U.S. and 0.3 GW in Europe, including our first solar projects in Germany, around 0.3 GW of batteries in the U.S., and also our first standalone battery in the U.K.
Around 0.2 GW of wind onshore in the U.S. and around 0.2 GW in core European markets, including the start of operations, as I mentioned, of one of Ocean Winds offshore projects in France. We delivered the planned capacity on time, on budget, and in line with guidance, with a contracted profile and a concentration in our core markets that supports the resilience and visibility going forward. If we move forward to slide six, talking about asset rotation in 2025. We had strong investor demand for high-quality assets. The gains were mostly concentrated in Europe. Since, as I mentioned, the U.S. transactions were minority stake sales.
During the year, we rotated around 0.8 GW from five transactions in Europe, delivering EUR 119 million of gains, at around 15% gains to invested capital, 20% if we excluded Spain, along with two deals at 49% stake in the U.S., with proceeds reaching $1.5 billion, given the attractive valuations. Note that the Greece transaction closed in January of 2026, the EUR 0.2 billion of proceeds will only be accounted for in the first quarter of 2026. If we move on to talk about additions. For 2026, we secured already the 1.5 GW of capacity additions. Around 80% of that is already under construction.
The remaining projects are expected to come online in the next couple of months or to start construction as scheduled, including also some of the solar DG that has an average 6 month construction time, still fully confident on the delivery of the 1.5 GW of capacity for this year. Most importantly, this is a very value accretive growth. The portfolio is expected to return an average spread of around 275 basis points. We included just a couple of examples to illustrate the quality of the portfolio across the different technologies. We have our Sunrisa project. It's solar and batteries in California. It's a 200 MW solar, 184 MW batteries. It's backed by a 20 year busbar PPA. It's a strong offtaker.
Meadow Lake for repowering in Indiana, so that's around 100 MW, had a 50% uplift in production and also captured an additional 10 years of PTC benefits. The material increase in profitability from this repowering. We also had a good hybrid solar in Poland, a 20 year CfD wind project in Italy at EUR 77.6 per MWh. The takeaway is quite simple. The delivery of 2026 is de-risked and has attractive returns and with long-term contracting, and this will also feed into our asset rotation that's expected for the year. If we move to slide eight on contracting, new projects. The contracting momentum has strengthened, and, including after the business plan, the CMD presentation.
Just over the last six months alone, we've secured 1.3 GW at attractive returns, PPAs with utilities, global tech. We've done build and transfer agreements in the U.S. It's exactly the kind of de-risk growth that we wanted. For 2026-2028 period, we now have 2.8 GW secured. As I said, 2026 fully covered, around 65% of 2027 already covered, and we expect to be covering the rest over the next couple of months, and 10% of 2028. Total, around 55% secured over the period 2026-2028. This contracting progress is reducing the risk, it's increasing the cash flow visibility, and it's supporting also this disciplined execution into 2026 and beyond. Let's talk a little bit about the U.S.
I think, you know, I've been consistent about this in many of the previous interactions, both in these calls and also in some of the investor presentations. I mean, the message on the US remains very positive. The demand is structurally rising, that's. If the fundamentals aren't there, then it doesn't work. In this case, the fundamentals are there. I mean, the IEA projects 2% yearly annual electricity demand growth between 2026 and 2030. It's largely driven by data centers, it's supported by, you know, it's going to be supporting a strong runway for renewables, which is the fastest and most efficient and cheapest technology to be deployed.
We've discussed this in the past, but these are projects that can be supplied today to deliver power today, and that will help with issues around affordability and just the delivery of power in general in the US. On the supply side, for the US, and you can see that on the graph on the left-hand side, I mean, you're expecting, or it's expected that we'll have around 8% renewables CAGR over the period 2025-2030, while the non-renewables grows much more modestly. Obviously, there's some thermal coal, for example, coming offline. You have some gas coming online, but non-renewables, much more modest growth compared to, for example, the renewables. Wood Mackenzie, independent consultant, estimates an average of around 25 GW of solar, 9 GW of wind additions per year, for the period 2027-2030.
We're well positioned to capture that growth. We have strong visibility across the portfolio. We have 1 GW of PPAs under commercial discussions and a more than 20 GW pipeline, with around 50% located in the MISO PJM regions, which are two of the most attractive demand pockets. We have the policy and execution resilience also built in. We have around 6 gigawatts of safe harbor for wind and solar projects for COGs up till 2030. We have flexibility between the annual additions, and this is excluding batteries, which, as you know, has a much longer time frame in terms of tax credit visibility. We're also capturing data center optionality directly. We've got around 2 GW of powered land, including 0.8 GW already in advanced permitting, mainly ERCOT and PJM. Our approach continues to be disciplined.
We're, you know, one of the issues we had a couple of years ago and that we've successfully, I think, adjusted, is making sure we have a domestic content procurement strategy, including the First Solar frame agreement and also other U.S. made equipment like trackers, rackings, inverters. We see potential upside from repowering and also flexible repricing. Essentially, on the procurement side, we feel very confident about the supply chain. We also have these additional upsides towards the back end of the decade. Overall, bottom line, U.S. market fundamentals are strong. EDPR has the pipeline, it's got the contracting momentum, and it's got the optionality to keep delivering the growth, up till to 2028 and beyond. Turning to Europe, the message is also similar and clear. We're strengthening value creation. We're being extremely focused.
We've got a leadership in the hybrid market where renewables remain structurally supported. On the demand side, the outlook is also positive. I mean, the electricity demand in the European Union is still projected to grow at around 2% per year. On the supply side, renewables is also expected to grow at around 8% CAGR up till 2030, while non-renewable sources are expected to actually decline by around 4%. Again, well positioned to capture this. We have a tangible pipeline, we have a commercial momentum, you know, over 14 GW of pipeline in core European growth markets, over 8.8 GW of PPAs under advanced discussion and around 0.5 GW ready to bid in upcoming auctions.
We are being very much execution-driven, deliberately low risk, and we're focusing on core markets like Italy and France, where we can leverage some of the CfD auctions, routes to market. We're also creating extra pathways to address other fast-growing demand from demand centers. We have around 0.3 GW of Powered Land opportunities in Europe, namely in Germany and Poland, and we have some additional opportunities in Spain, that will help us serve demand-centric demand as it emerges. On hybrids, it's a key differentiator, I think, for us. We're leveraging our existing wind base to add solar and also to co-locate solar with batteries, and that's helping us improve the resilience and the value, capture, as the volatility and flexibility increases.
Overall, bottom line for Europe, disciplined growth story, focused markets, lower risk on the commercial side, and reliable execution, using also hybrid solutions to enhance returns and competitiveness. Just a final slide on this first section before I pass it over to Rui. Talking about efficiency, because I think this is also one of the key drivers for the earnings growth, and it's independent of market conditions. Our adjusted core OpEx per average megawatt decreased by 12%. At the same time, we streamlined the organization, headcount is down around 9%, so we're becoming leaner, more focused, but staying execution driven. This has to do with three key levers. Operational streamlining, cost discipline, leaner workforce model, and also scaling digital and then AI to improve availability.
Overall, I think very proud of the effort that's being done here, at all levels and in all the different geographies and platforms. As I say, really seeing sort of the benefits of the economies of scale coming through. This is, I think, one of the best in class in terms of efficiencies. With that, I'll pause there and pass it over to Rui, and then I'll come back for closing remarks. Thanks.
Thank you, Miguel, and good afternoon to you all. Let's move to the 2025 numbers. Starting on slide 13, and I would like to start with a strong increase in generation. It went up by 11% to 40.6 TWh. This was supported by capacity additions, lower losses, even though we had a renewable resource weaker than the long-term average. On the left-hand side, you can see that the renewables resource index was 95% in 2025 versus 98% in 2024. This was driven by lower wind conditions. Europe saw its lowest wind levels in 45 years. North America had its weakest September in the Q3 since 1989. Again, this was region-wide, not portfolio specific.
On the right-hand side, EDPR, you know, you can see, generated an additional 4 TWh year-on-year from higher average MW in operation. Improved losses, supported also, the year-on-year increase. Again, this, as I said, partially offset by the resource. Also some impact from the asset rotation parameter. Please also note that solar generation increased by 77%, this is obviously reflecting the growing portfolio. If we now move to slide 14. Electricity sales increased by 1% year-on-year to EUR 2.15 million or billion, with higher volumes offsetting lower prices. The average selling price declined from EUR 58 per MWh to EUR 53, this is reflecting the normalization impact in Europe that was already expected. Regionally, the mix is also clear. You can see that on the left-hand side.
North America contributed to an additional EUR 145 million year-on-year, supported by both higher volumes, in total, 23.3 TWh. That's a 16% increase year-on-year, and also higher prices, with the average selling price up 4% to $47.4 per MWh. Europe was down EUR 137 million year-on-year, with volumes broadly flat at 11.5 TWh. As I said, pricing, normalizing, and decreasing 13% to an average price of EUR 80.1 per MWh. South America improved by EUR 6 million, supported by higher volumes, 4.2 TWh. This is a 22% increase, while the average selling price was slightly lower, on a Brazilian reals, BRL 180.8 per MWh, that's approximately -2%. APAC was broadly stable.
If we move now to EBITDA, on slide 15, the underlying recurring EBITDA grew 23% year-on-year, increasing by EUR 159 million in this period, again, excluding asset rotation gains. Starting from the left of the bridge, electricity sales were up 1% year-on-year to EUR 2.15 billion. Tax equity revenues were up by EUR 118, to EUR 421 million, mainly driven by the solar additions that benefit from the ITCs, and this is offsetting the gradual phaseout of wind PTCs. Asset rotations contributed EUR 119 million, in line with our guidance. On the cost side, and as Miguel said, you know, it's, you know, very good efficiency and very good results. Core OpEx was EUR 766 million.
On adjusted basis, adjusted core OpEx per MW, per average MW improved 12%. Therefore, this reflects all the efforts that Miguel already alluded to. Finally, other costs, on a net basis, was EUR 48 million. This line also reflects a cleaner underlying profile. 2024, you may remember, it was impacted by losses in Colombia and Romania, while 2025 includes about EUR 26 million of provision in Vietnam. All in all, regarding EBITDA, was EUR 1.97 billion, with the underlying business mix continuing to shift toward our core markets, with North America at 59% of the underlying EBITDA, and Europe at 34%. If we now go to financial results, in 2025, increased by EUR 109 million year-on-year, reached EUR 482 million.
This increase is primarily due to a EUR 1.5 billion rise in average net debt and the lower capitalization of financial expenses, following a EUR 1 billion decrease of PP&E, working in progress, but also partially offset by effects and derivatives. Looking ahead, we expect this line to improve from 2026 onwards and keep declining across the business plan, mostly on the back of lower debt and lower tax equity and mining costs. Highlighting that from a risk and liquidity standpoint, our profiles remains conservative. 74% of the debt is fixed, 20% variable. We are well-diversified by currency, 44% in EUR, 7% in USD, 20% in other currencies, and we maintain a solid maturity profile, with over 60% of our debt maturing beyond 2028, therefore, reinforcing long-term financial stability.
I would like now to move to slide 17. Net debt closed the year at EUR 8.1 billion. That's a reduction of EUR 0.2 billion versus December 31st of 2024. Gross investments total EUR 2.4 billion, of which EUR 2.2 was CapEx and approximately EUR 0.2 billion financial investments. 55% in North America, 25% in Europe. 50% of this was invested in solar, 31% in wind onshore, and 12% in battery storage, with about 7% related to equity investments, including Ocean Winds and some capitalized expenses. In addition, we have a EUR 0.5 billion working capital outflow linked to fixed asset suppliers.
In total, these investments were fully funded through EUR 1.5 billion of asset rotation, EUR 0.8 billion of tax equity proceeds, and very importantly, EUR 0.6 billion of operating cash flow. Considering some effects and other effect, impacts, net debt reduced by EUR 0.2 to a total of EUR 8.1. Also an improved net debt to EBITDA from 4.9 x to 4.1 x. Also just reminding what Miguel mentioned in the beginning, this does not include yet the proceeds from the Greek transaction that only closed in January, about EUR 0.2 billion. On the net profit, recurring net profit reached EUR 330 million, effectively increasing fourfold year-on-year, if we exclude capital gains. As mentioned earlier, our recurring EBITDA increased 17% year-on-year, reflecting solid operational performance.
Depreciation increased, driven by the new capacity additions. Also, a one-off impact from accelerated depreciation in repowering farm in the U.S., which is ongoing. Taxes were higher this year on the back of lower asset rotation and some one-off costs that are not tax-deductibles. We expect this to go down in the following years. Minorities contributed positively year-on-year, following the completion of the buyback of the 49% wind portfolio in late 2024. Here, I just again note that this line will be impacted in the coming year with the 49% stake that we sold in the asset rotation in the U.S. this year. Just to bear in mind that, please.
Regarding the one-off impact at net profit level, there are about EUR 114 million recognized this year, and these are mainly coming from impairment in Europe, some including non-core countries. Also Ocean Wind U.S. platform, as well as accelerated depreciation of this repowering wind farm in the US, the Meadow Lake IV Wind Farm. Also, to note that the board of directors will propose in the 2026 general shareholders meeting to continue the scrip dividend program with a payout of 40%, and implying a maximum amount of EUR 0.13 per share. Finally, just before I hand over to Miguel, let me just touch briefly on the sensitivity of EDPR's net profit to the wholesale power markets. The updated 2028 net income sensitivity remains unchanged versus our CMD.
If you consider a EUR 5 per megawatt-hour movement in global electricity prices, it results or should result in a sort of EUR 25 million impact on a net income level, the reference for 2028. Currently, what we are seeing in the regional trends are Europe, that holds about 60% of the exposure. 2028 reference price is up around EUR 64 per megawatt-hour, and the trend is currently downwards, and this is mainly driven by Spain, Poland and Romania. U.S. that has about 25% of the exposure, that has a reference price of $43. Here the exposure is mostly on PJM and MISO, and we are seeing an upward trend.
Brazil, that holds about 15% exposure with a reference price of BRL 170 per MWh, also showing an upward trend on forward prices. Again, to highlight that, we have broadly a stable sensitivity due to portfolio and regional diversification. Now, Miguel, back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.
Okay, thank you, Rui. Just three important messages. The first is in relation to 2025, strong execution delivery. We delivered on our commitments, 2 gigawatts of capacity additions, EUR 1.7 billion of asset rotation proceeds, and we closed the year with EUR 2 billion of recurring EBITDA and around EUR 330 million of recurring net profits. We delivered. Second, good visibility for 2026. We have all the capacity secured, and the majority is already under the construction. We're guiding to a very strong EUR 2.1 billion recurring EBITDA, and this is supported by high single-digit generation growth, an average selling price of around EUR 52 per megawatt hour, versus EUR 53 per megawatt hour in 2025, and around EUR 0.2 billion of asset rotation gains.
Just to frame the moving parts, because I know a couple of questions on this includes a more conservative, euro-dollar exchange rate of around 1.18 versus, around 1.16 we considered in November, was aligned with the current spot rates and the average year-to-date. There's a slight adjustment here in terms of Forex, but I'd say it's a very strong EUR 2.1 billion recurring EBITDA guidance for the year. Third, on track to deliver the 2028 targets that we already communicate back in the CMD. As Rui also mentioned, really the sensitivities even to pool prices and others are perfectly within what we consider our sort of range of confidence.
As we go on getting further visibility on 2028, you know, we have EUR 7.5 billion of gross investments, around 5 GW that we've communicated of gross additions we expect to do for this period up to 2028. That should take us to the EUR 2.2 billion of recurring EBITDA in 2028 and around the EUR 0.6 billion of recurring net profit in 2028. Perfectly on track to deliver the 2028 targets, and I think still high confidence on that going forward. With that, I'd stop there, and we can move to Q&A, and Miguel, turn it over to you.
Thank you. We will begin by addressing the questions submitted in writing. After that, we will move on to the live questions by phone. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question by phone, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Please ensure that your line is unmuted when your name is announced. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type them in the question box and click submit. We will now begin with our written questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. From the webcast, the first question comes from Olly Jeffery from Deutsche Bank, Pedro Alves from CaixaBank, and Alex from Bank of America. We have a set of questions around the updated guidance for 2026, namely the EBITDA guidance of EUR 2.1 billion, the rationale behind it, and if we are providing any more guidance for 2026.
Thank you, Miguel. As I just mentioned, and anticipating a bit this question, I mean, we think there's a very strong EUR 2.1 billion. The adjustment is really more related to an adjustment in the FX that we've been seeing slightly deteriorate since the CMD. Apart from that, very confident on the overall delivery. I mean, and the other assumptions, whether it's in terms of volumes, and in terms of prices, we continue to be confident on those. I think overall, I wouldn't say there's any material change versus what we had.
We have a question also from Deutsche Bank and CaixaBank BPI around the target of 5 gigawatts of gross capacity additions for the period 2026, 2028.
If we see some upside or some update in terms of this number presented at our capital markets day in November 2025, and namely, regarding capacity additions for 2028.
Here, I just reiterate the message that we communicated also in the CMD. We think this is a very realistic business plan with optionality on the upside. We, you know, are assuming we'll be able to deleverage over this period. This will create some room. If we find projects that we think have the right risk return, we will capture those, and those will be an upside to the 2028 targets volume. Overall, yes, we do think there could be some upside, but it will be on the conditions that we think are reasonable. Assume the base case, you know, we'll have the space and the balance sheet to take that on, and if we find the right risk return, then we'll certainly capture it.
This is true for 2028 and beyond, because I think the world doesn't end in 2028. Obviously, 2029 and 2030, we continue to see a lot of demand also coming down the pipeline for projects in that timeframe.
Thank you. We have now a set of questions around the from Pedro Alves, CaixaBank, Alex from Bank of America, regarding the outlook of asset rotation execution for 2026. both in terms of asset rotation proceeds and gains.
Okay, what I'd say on the asset rotation execution is, again, you know, we delivered in 2025. Year after year after year, we've been delivering on the asset rotation against all the skeptics, both in terms of proceeds and in terms of just the general demand and capital gains. We see good demand. We continue to see good demand in the market going forward. We gave the guidance of around EUR 0.2 billion for the capital gains for the period. In terms of proceeds, I think we're at around EUR 1.5 billion of proceeds. Again, obviously, we'll go on updating you over the course of the year.
Even based on recent comments, we think there's a lot of demand, both from financial and strategic players, for the type of assets that we have.
We have a set of questions from Javier Requejo from JP Morgan, from Fernando Garcia from RBC, Alex from Bank of America, that asked us around our exposure on lower power prices in Europe versus our CMD assumptions, how this can impact our financial projections. We have covered a little bit in the presentation. I don't know if you want to go more in detail?
Absolutely. Because I also mentioned this in, as a sort of, you know, keeping the same sensitivity on the, on the net profit. But again, just to break this down. First of all, for 2026-2028 period, around 85% of our generation is secured through long-term contracts or hedges, which means that only 15% is exposed to merchant prices. Out of this 15%, 60% is Europe, and the rest is mostly in U.S. We start talking about smaller numbers, but it's still within Europe, so 15% merchant, 60% Europe. Within Europe, Iberia is where we have about 60% of the exposure.
There, you know, because of the energy matrix in Iberia, you know, we see less impact from CO2 price volatility on gas, because typically, gas has less number of hours as a marginal technology versus other markets. Also, we have exposure in Poland and in Romania, and that is already incorporated into our sensitivity. Again, we are talking about 40% of 15% or 60% of 15%. We're talking about, you know, something like 4% of the entire portfolio. U.S., on the other hand, the merchant exposure is really concentrated in PJM and ISO, and we actually are seeing an improvement in forward prices, around about $5 per megawatt hour into 2028 versus the assumption that we were using on our business plan.
Again, overall, I think what I think it's what we are trying to convey is that it's really only 15% merchant exposure, and the fact that we have a diversified portfolio, the different trends between Europe and United States, absolutely, ultimately, it's making our sensitivity stable versus where we were at the CMD.
Thank you. We have then a question about some news that came out also today about our joint venture, Ocean Winds, and its Moray West project in the U.K. regarding the technology issues during the last months of 2025, and the status of these issues. The questions come from Zack, from Jefferies, Pedro from CaixaBank, and also Fernando Garcia from RBC.
Thank you. It was a technical outage. It is already programmed to be recovered within March, so, you know, it's basically just depending on weather conditions. Most of the related losses are compensated either, you know, by insurance or by warranties from suppliers. Also, the plant has benefited with some of the merchant exposure. All in all, this is not a material impact to Ocean Winds or EDPR.
On the written questions, the last one, we had some questions from Fernando Garcia, RBC, and some other analysts about the volumes lower in the fourth quarter of 2025. Prices more aligned with expectations and also asset rotation. The driver for these outperformance on EBITDA in the Q4 2025.
Here, a couple of points. I think one has to do with just in general, we're more efficient, so we managed to get the costs down. That contributed also, so better than expected. The second has to do with some other income associated with the mark to market of hedges and long-term contracts. Also in 2024, so the comparison, we had some losses in Colombia and Romania, which we didn't have in 2025. In general, it was other revenue that contributed and also additional efficiencies and costs being better than expected, that contributed to the guidance or to being better than the guidance.
Thank you, Miguel. We can now move to the questions on the phone. I think the first question comes from the line of Jorge Alonso from Bernstein. Jorge, please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions, please. The first one is related to the safe harbor capacity. You have put that you have already 60 watts. Then just a clarification about how that capacity should be used for the deployment of from 2027 to 2030, I guess, in order to get the tax credit. That gives above 1 gigawatt a year in the US annually. The question is, are you really thinking on going ahead on that one? If not, what to do with the spare capacity? I mean, can you monetize that?
Really, I mean, at the end, you are thinking about just to use all that safe harbor capacity, meaning, increasing the installations in the U.S. by 2030 in an annual basis. Okay. The other question was on the average prices, especially, for example, in the U.S., just to understand if the increases that you are seeing 2025 and going forward comes more from the spot market, or mainly from the new PPAs, or is it balanced among the two? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jorge Alonso. On the first one, the safe harbor numbers are 2025-2030. Just to be clear. What we can do is we then have flexibility to use those equipment in different projects or in the limit to resell them. In any case, our base case is to assume that we'll be using them over this time period, from 2025-2030. That's around a gigawatt a year for the U.S. That's the first one. On the second one, on the average prices for 2025 onwards, I mean, these are both the spot and forward markets. We've seen, for example, the forwards in for 2028, I think PJM and ISO also going up, you know, over the last 12, 24 months.
It's quite clear that there's that upward trend, which is, let's say, inversely correlated or at least in going a different direction from what's been happening in Europe. Just to be clear, on top of the safe harbor, batteries are not included in this, right? This is just for mostly solar and wind to a certain extent, and batteries is outside of this, because batteries, we don't need to safe harbor because the tax credits extend well beyond 2030.
Thank you.
The next question. Thank you, Jorge. The next question comes from the line of Jenny Ping from Citi. Jenny, please go ahead.
Hi, thanks very much. A couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, just on numbers. It looks like Q4 you've incurred another EUR 30 million, what you call non-recurring charges, which is added back. Can you just give us a little bit more visibility on where the buckets, how to think about how to bucket these things outside what you've announced of nine months? More importantly, going forward into 2026, your net income targets through to 2028. Just want to get a sense of how much of these non-recurring items or further impairments or provisions that you're looking to add. Beyond that, I guess, just, you know, pushing a little bit more on the EBITDA guidance.
I think your previous CMD sensitivities talks to 0.1 change on the FX to be about EUR 40 million on the net income. you know, given that you've moved from 1.16 to 1.18, the reduction seems to be quite severe in terms of the sort of the middle of the range. Is there anything else you're building in there in terms of anticipated risks that you could see materializing in 2026, please? Thank you.
Okay. Just in relation to the second one, we can take the first one. Just to be clear, I mean, when we give guidance, we try to be as accurate as possible. Now based on the latest, we're more towards the bottom of the range, that's why I say it's a very solid EUR 2.1. The numbers you mentioned are roughly the ones that we're using, that's what's at stake. It's around EUR 3 cents or EUR 2-3 cents at those levels. That just makes a slight move towards the bottom end of the range, therefore, the round of EUR 2.1 billion. As I say, we're very comfortable with that. On the non-recurring, Rui, do you want to take that?
Yeah, sure. Hi, Jenny. First of all, that accelerated depreciation of the Meadow Lake IV, you know, we booked part of that already up to the nine months, there was an additional 1 to be booked now in Q4. Also secondly, we reviewed some old equipment that we had stored in some markets, particularly in the U.S., we decided to effectively, you know, impair that. Also at the end, there was also some smaller impairments, you know, from on the development side. Nothing that I would consider that. I mean, I cannot anticipate that we will have that, you know, every single year.
You know, depending on the year, we'll look into the assets and see if there is any impairments to be carried out. It was along these lines.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jenny. The next question comes from the line of Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. Arthur, please go ahead.
Hello, thank you for taking my question. The first one is on your disposal plan. I was wondering if you could provide an update on that, if we should expect any disposal in 2026. It's just in order to assess a little bit where the net financial debt could be at the end of the year. Obviously, like, I've seen that you're making progress on safe harboring, and so I was wondering if there is any incentive on your side to maybe accelerate a bit your deleveraging plan, and have more of these disposals in 2026 in order to reaccelerate the investments earlier than, well, earlier than in 2028. That's the first question.
The second one is just on your target for power output in 2026. You're talking about high single digit growth in output, so I imagine that means something around 44 TWh I was just wondering if you could help us with the bridge between the 40.5, roughly in 2025, and the 44 in 2026. Is that how is that divided between normalization of the P50 and increased capacity? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Arthur. In relation to the disposal, it's roughly around EUR 1 billion. We'd obviously try and do that as quickly as possible. I mean, obviously, if we can over-deliver on the plan, that's what we're aiming for. To the extent that we can deleverage faster and also redeploy that capital into projects that we think have the right risk return, you know, 2027, but mostly 2028 and beyond, we'll certainly do that. In terms of targets, the disposal is EUR 1 billion. Hopefully, some of that might come through in 2026. That's only all I can say at the moment in terms of guidance. In relation to the second question, in terms of power, Rui, I don't know if you have the numbers there.
No, I can address this. I mean, I would say it's definitely a combination. We consider it P50 because the fact is that we look to long-term history, historical series, and we cannot identify any trend. I mean, we know that we'll always have volatility, particularly on the wind side. As you know, our portfolio is still quite overweight in wind. We'll always have this type of, you know, volatility across the regions. You know, looking forward, you know, we can carry on considering a P50 as the best scenario. Yes, there will be some gross additions, also some asset rotations. I would say that, I mean, that high single digit is really a combination.
It's hard for me to say, you know, how much comes from one and the other, but, you know, as a whole, you can consider that high single digit as an output increase.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Arthur. The next question comes from line of Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Alberto, please go ahead.
Miguel, thank you for taking my questions. Good afternoon. The first one is a little bit of a capital allocation, bigger picture, I guess. The U.S. market seems to be booming, right? You know, as you said, the lead prices are increasing, power demand is increasing, competition doesn't seem as fierce as it has been. I guess it's a two-part question: Are you tempted to find incremental balance sheet headroom to chase this opportunity in the U.S.? Would you be open to exit regions like APAC or South America, or would you be perhaps open even to entirely change capital allocation and perhaps think about, as we have seen throughout last year, other utilities, like, issue equity to upgrade CapEx and upgrade growth? Is there any?
You know, is the U.S. such a big opportunity that deserves maybe to be thinking about it right now? The second question, just to be clear on the power price sensitivity. I understand that you say, 60% of merchant is Europe, and 60% of that is Iberia, but prices are down throughout Europe. If you are up $5 a megawatt hour in the U.S., but vis-a-vis your CMD, you are kind of EUR 10 MWh down in Europe, wouldn't the net effect still be negative on 2026, 2027, 2028 profits? Thank you so much.
Thank you, Albert. On the capital allocation question, let's be clear, we have no intention to issue equity in relation to the, to create that balance sheet space. Obviously, you know, we've had very successful asset rotation programs over the year, and we'll continue to do that going forward. I think, you know, we already start having some visibility, I think, on some of those processes, even though they're at an early stage. I think, you know, we'll be able to show that again this year.
In terms of disposals, I mean, we will continue to look at, you know, this is also one of the previous questions from Arthur, looking to see how we can accelerate disposals and find sort of assets that we can monetize at a good value and redeploy that capital. As I say, we also want to make sure we redeploy the capital into projects that we think have the right risk return, whether it's in the U.S. or anywhere else. Certainly in the U.S., I agree with you, we are seeing a lot of demand there. We are constantly, you know, discussing between ourselves and with the team on the ground, how we can, you know, accelerate and go faster.
We're looking at all the different instruments, but not including equity, but including sort of capital allocation within the portfolio and within the disposals. On the power prices, Rui, do you want to follow up on that?
Again, hi, Alberto. On the power prices, as I said, again, it's only, first of all, 15% of the merchant exposure by 2028. Within Europe, there are three markets that have the exposure, Spain, Poland, and Romania. We do not have any exposure merchant to Italy, which is obviously a positive at this point. Also, very importantly, the rest of the exposure comes from U.S., a little bit in Brazil, and here is where we are seeing the markets within our power trend.
That's why, all in all, the sort of sensitivity that we had back at the CMD remains flat. Same EUR 35 million. Again, it's an overall, if all the markets go in the same direction, EUR 5 per MWh , that's the sort of EUR 35 million impact. As I said, you have nowadays very different trends between Europe coming down, U.S. going up, and Brazil actually going, you know, really up.
We have the last question. Thank you, Alberto. We have the last question from the phone coming from the line of Skye Landon from Rothschild. Skye, please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the presentation this afternoon. Firstly, on OpEx decreases, great to see the -12% last year. I think at the CMD, you said that this was gonna touch, tick down a touch further by 2028, but just wondering if you could elaborate on what you see as the potential for this to keep decreasing, and what the levers are that can be pulled to keep it going down. Secondly, on asset rotation, just wondering if you can elaborate on which geographies you're expecting to see deals in 2026, in order to get to the EUR 0.2 billion guidance. I note that the asset rotation gain over invested capital circa 15% in 2025. Just wondering, how you see this figure developing going forwards for 2026.
Lastly, on net debt, you guided to 3.2 x net debt to EBITDA by 2028 at the CMD last year. Just wondering if you can provide any color on kind of the cadence of reduction from 4.1 that you've just posted to the 3.2 in 2028. Can we roughly straight line that, or wondering if it's a bit more lumpy than this? Thank you.
Thanks, Skye, for the questions. On the OpEx side, what I'd say is that we have two effects. One is just keeping the costs under control and reducing to the extent possible, and then, you know, while we are growing and increasing the number of megawatts, so really building on these economies of scale. I think what we've shown is that we've been becoming more productive. We've been leveraging a lot on, for example, our overall asset management platform, and there was a significant restructuring that was done at that level, and I think we'll continue to obviously push for the improvement in productivity there. I think, you know, this is already very significant decrease in or increase in, let's say, efficiency.
we're touching sort of EUR 40,000 per MW, which is, I think, we haven't been there for many years. In the meantime, we've had a lot of inflation. really, I think this is a fantastic metric. Going forward, it's just keeping sort of that culture of cost control and developing sort of the economies of scale. Obviously, we're incorporating a bunch of systems, really developing automation, AI, really trying to extract the maximum value from our operations. On the asset rotation, the second question, in terms of where, Europe and U.S., I mean, that will be the bulk of our.
Sort of in the U.S., you could probably expect that we do a majority stake this year, which would then also contribute to the capital gains. In Europe, as we've done in the past, you'd also have majority stakes. In terms of the percentages, I mean, as I say, if you exclude the Spanish transaction this year, we had around the 20% capital gain, so over CapEx in Europe. I think you'd see that or even higher over net CapEx in the U.S. I think we have some very good, very attractive projects coming down the pipeline. We'll see. I don't want to speak too soon, but I think you'd clearly see sort of very healthy capital gains over CapEx going forward.
On the net debt in terms of cadence, Rui, do you want to take that one?
Sure. I would expect the net debt to EBITDA to, you know, continuously improving. Net debt probably should be slightly down versus where we'll, you know, end the 2025. This is for 2026. EBITDA growing, so effectively, we should do see already an improvement on the net debt EBITDA ratios, 2026, and 2027, 2028.
Thank you, Skye. Concludes our Q&A session. Pass to our CEO for the final remarks.
I think just very quickly, I just wanted to reiterate some of the comments I made earlier. I think 2025 was a good year, very good year, both in terms of execution, delivery on the numbers, both on the financial side and on the operational side, and so I think we're very happy with that result. Now the focus is on delivering 2026. I think we're coming into the year well, with well-positioned. I think we continue to see on the operational side, good improvements, whether it's in terms of the OpEx or whether it's in terms of delivering the projects that we set out for 2026. In terms of the asset rotations, which is obviously important, and disposals, we continue to work on those.
Again, I'm sure that in 2026, we will deliver comfortably on these targets. Good expectations for 2026, certainly good expectations for 2028, and look forward to sharing that with you over the next couple of quarters and to talking to you again. Thanks very much, and let's keep in touch.