Earnings Call: Q1 2019

Apr 29, 2019

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Galp's First Quarter 2019 Results Call. I will now pass the floor to Mr. Pedro Diaz, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 of 2019 results conference call. Today, Carlos will start with a quick overview of Galp's strategy execution and operational update of the quarter. Filipe will then go through the results. At the end of the presentation, we will be available to take any questions you may have. Thor is here with us as well. I would like to remind you that we may be making several looking forward statements. Actual results may differ due to factors included in the cautionary statements available at the beginning of our presentation, which we advise you to read. Carlos, the floor is yours. Thank you. Thank you, Pedro, and good morning to you all. During the Q1, Galp delivered a resilient set of results in a context of lower oil prices, weaker refining margins and refining operational issues. Our cash flow from operations was healthy in the quarter and our downstream commercial activities performed well across all products, notably in gas and electricity. Let me briefly go through the performance of our divisions, starting with E and P on Slide 5. As you may see, the working interest production was flat quarter on quarter as planned. The FPSO number 9 has started in February in Lula North, and the number 8 is still ramping up in the extreme south of Lula. However, and having these two units ramping up, this was offset by planned maintenance in Mangarativa unit placed in Iracema South. Again, this is consistent with the plan we presented to you back in February. The unitization of Lula is now in place, meaning that from April 1 onward, our stake has been reduced to around 9.2% of the wider Lula reservoir, including the area outside the BMS 11 concession. Iracema, as you know, is a separate field, and therefore, our stake will remain unchanged at 10%. This is in line with what we assumed in our planned guidance for the 2019 year. Equalization of past costs and also CapEx supported over the original 10% interest and profits received there under are being finalized amongst the partners. A similar process will follow for the Iara fields, with Galp standing in an overall net receiver position. In Iara, works are proceeding according to plan towards the first production in the second half of this year from Birbigao and Taibeg from Surpur, both fields belonging to the Iara area. In Carcara, we continued the appraisal works in Carcara North, where we also confirmed hydrocarbon's presence in the second well drilled in the area in the east side of the Carcara North. Results are still being analyzed, but we are positive on the potential of this area. Moving to Angola and on Blocks 14 and 32, they have been contributing steadily to production. The Kaombo South FPSO started production at the beginning of this month of April, and we expect to full ramp up the unit before the year end. In Mozambique, the Coral FLNG execution is progressing according to plan. As for the first phase of the large Rovuma LNG onshore liquefaction projects, The consortium is getting ready to take the FID over the next few months. On the exploration side, we have concluded around 3,000 square kilometers of seismic acquisition in our Namibia operating concession in Pell 83. Overall, Galp's Q2 production is expected to be quite stable Q on Q, considering the impact from Lula unitization and the ramp up of the most recent units in Brazil and in Angola. This unitization effect was considered in our plan and is within our guidance for the year that I recall to you is an increase in production between 8% 12% comparing with 2018. Moving to our downstream activities and now on Slide 6. Refining had a challenging quarter with a significant decrease in refining margins pressured by weaker gasoline cracks. The upside in Magin's refinery we had mentioned back in February to you, and industrial action during the quarter. Galp's margins have been at around $4 per barrel during this month of April with a healthier market environment and higher availability of the units. For now, we are maintaining our guidance of $5 to $6 per barrel for the year. We do not expect major maintenance activities before Q3, where we expect the Syne Refinery atmospheric distillation unit to stop for 40 to 50 days. This should not compromise the operational availability of the conversion units. I would like to notice this and underline this. The conversion units will continue to work, and the respective margins are expected to happen. On the marketing front, we continue to benefit from supportive sales to direct clients across all products such as the diesel, gasoline, jet and the bankers that are really outstanding during the year. As for the Gas and Power business, this was a strong quarter, benefiting from the performance of the natural gas and electricity commercial activities, where we are implementing a set of initiatives to be more efficient, to increase our competitiveness and the value of our services to the clients. So looking forward, we expected our network trading activity to continue having value volume, sorry. And additionally, we are aiming at strengthening our commercial initiatives in Iberia and securing a competitive long term natural gas and electricity sourcing basket. So Filipe will now go through the financials. Filipe? Thank you, Carlos, and good morning. I will start with the P and L on Slide 8. The group EBITDA was €450,000,000 excluding the positive effects from IFRS 16. Under IFRS 16, euros 40 4,000,000 in operating lease costs are excluded from EBITDA. So if we ignore this, the uplift from IFRS on a comparable basis, group EBITDA was flat year on year as the higher production in E and P was offset by a lower contribution from refining. E and P EBITDA of €341,000,000 again ex IFRS 16 was up year on year and this was mostly driven by rising production. Compared with Q4 last year, E and P EBITDA was flat, driven on the one hand by lower oil prices, which were down almost $6 per barrel. But on the other hand, you will recall Q4 had been hit by over €50,000,000 of under lifting effects. On Refining and Marketing, EBITDA was only €59,000,000 ex IFRS 16, and that's down both quarter on quarter and year on year, driven by the weak refining contribution Carlos alluded to before. Gas and Power had a strong quarter with EBITDA up €14,000,000 year on year, reflecting a stronger performance from the natural gas and electricity commercial activity. Below the line, I would highlight the positive swing in financial results with the reversal of the mark to market of financial derivatives we alluded to during our last call and this is as expected. Also on this financial results line and considering IFRS 16, we have €35,000,000 in operating lease interests and some IFRS 16 driven non cash exchange rate effects. Net income under RCA was down year on year and marginally up quarter on quarter. Under IFRS, net income was affected by a non recurring €98,000,000 related to the Lula unitization where we have recognized the effect of past costs and profits. These are net of tax and minority interests. Now on cash flow on slide 9. Cash flow from operations in Q1 was a healthy €353,000,000 and again this is ex IFRS 16. CapEx was only €152,000,000 as normally Q1 is lighter in terms of investment payments. Group free cash flow reached therefore €159,000,000 You will please note that our free cash flow includes all operating lease payments that is deemed interest and the principal repayments. We are considering IFRS 16 to be neutral at the free cash flow level, reflecting the payments. As Brazil became cash positive last year, In Q1, we distributed a dividend of €68,000,000 to our partner Sanopec from the Brazil JV. Also, the remaining €176,000,000 of the loan to Sinopec was fully reimbursed by Sinopec against a capital reduction in the JV. On the balance sheet on slide 10, assets increased by about €1,200,000,000 driven by the inclusion of the right of use of assets which are under operating lease contracts. An equivalent amount is recognized as a liability. The other assets liabilities line includes as of March 31, an amount payable of €133,000,000 related to the equalization estimates under the Lula unitization process. Now this amount does not yet include the estimate of payments to be received by Galp to compensate for the share of Lula Investments borne by 2BBV and for the unitization of the Yara fields. As we stated before, Galp expects to be in a net receiver position of about €100,000,000 Net debt ex the lease liabilities was down to 1.6 €1,000,000,000 Net debt to EBITDA was 0.7 times with EBITDA here also stripped out of the IFRS 16 uplift. Including the lease liabilities as debt, our net our EBITDA also inflated according to IFRS 16, the ratio would be 1.3 times. I will stop here and we're happy to take your questions. Thank you. Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Oswald Clint from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you very much, Carlos. Good morning. Yes, first question, just on your confidence, I guess, around the refining margin for 2019 at $5 to $6 per barrel. Obviously, it's $3.3 in the quarter. We're really and you mentioned 4 dollars so far, but you really need to step that up to, I guess, dollars $5 $6 per barrel to get to that sort of margin environment. So could you perhaps just talk around what your expectations are here on? Is it product pricing? Is it the light heavy differentials expanding again? Or is it something operational through the rest of the year that gives you the confidence you can still hit that sort of refinery margin level, please? That's the first question. And I guess the second question, I was just curious around some recent news flow from I think from Petrobras around a bit of a pilot FPSO on Jupiter by early 2023. It seems a bit more specific than some of the indications from Galp. So I just want to clarify, is that a project that's moving forward a little bit quicker than we might have expected before? Thank you. Well, good morning, Oswald, and thank you for your two questions. So effectively, in refining margins, what we will expect is clearly that the spreads between heavy and light or if you prefer with the sour and sweet crudes will increase all across the year once the IMO approaches, which means that the cracks of diesel. So the demanding of marine diesel and the middle distillates also will increase, and therefore, it tend to press up the cracks and therefore the refining margins. And you also should consider that the dollar per barrel project that we are implementing that is midway should be completed by the second half of this year. So we tend to conclude the year in a better position. So in respect to Jupiter, I will ask Thore to take the question. Thank you. Thank you, Oswald. When it comes to Jupiter, you will know that we have a very comprehensive R and D program going on for Jupiter with respect to maturing the development of this very interesting but challenging field. The first step for us now is really now then to make sure that the testing of the high set pilot on Libra is being conducted during the second half of twenty nineteen. And thereafter, we plan internally in the JV to see whether we can pass a well one here in the same course of 2019 or 12. That is so far we have firm plans and over and above that, it is too early and too early for us to make a conclusion. We are very dependent on the outcome of that. But yes, it is a very interesting Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Biraj Borkhataria from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. 2, please. The first one is on the production guidance. Carlos, could you just talk through what would it take for you to be at the top or the bottom end of your production growth guidance for 2019 and some of the key moving parts there? And then second question on the downstream. Could you just update us on the industrial action that impacted Q1 and how that impacts Q2 at all? Thank you. So concerning the production, as I've mentioned to you back in February, we have considered in our guidance that the unitization process was already considered and also all the planned maintenance for the year of 2019. So we have anticipated some maintenance during this 1st Q. We will have or we have already from 1st April onwards the unitization process effective. And therefore, the range that we have provided to you in the beginning of the year was precisely considering the in definition of all those variables. So we are confident that the guidance that we have presented to you, it is still the reality. In relation to industrial action, we have during this quarter some initiatives from the unions that were related with some benefits they or pre retirement benefits they are trying to recover from the past. I think we are having good discussions with the unions, and we hope that the situation might be stabilized in the next coming weeks. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Enab Bardi, Societe Generale. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So two questions please. The first one regarding Petrogal Brasil dividend payment to the shareholders. So we can see as you highlighted that Sinopec received €68,000,000 of course you received the remaining part. But I would like to know if this year or what is, let's say, the frequency of that dividend payment? Is it a quarterly dividend? Is it a high feely dividend? Is it a yearly dividend? And could you also tell us if there is a clear policy regarding that dividend payment? Is it correlated to the free cash flow generation of Petrobrasil? Is it correlated to the earnings? So just for us to try to forecast it. Second question regarding the refining. So the utilization rate has been relatively low compared to Q1 last year. So I wanted to know if that was in order to preserve the refining margins or if there was some other reasons? And if the refining margins remain, let's say, close to the current level, should we expect that the utilization rate would remain in line with the Q1 2019, excluding maintenance impact, of course? Thank you. Hi, Mehdi. Good morning. So concerning the dividends paid in Petrogal Brazil and as Filipe has mentioned, this is a one off event. Of course, we are seeing that Petrobrasil is generation or generating free cash flow positive. And of course, this free cash flow has to be considered for future needs or future requirements related with new projects and new investments in Brazil. Otherwise, the cash generated will turn back to the shareholders. You know that we have 70% in the JV and Sinopec has 30%. You should not make any direct relation with the dividends paid in Q1 and the free cash flow and as well the dividends policy. So in the plan that we have presented to you back in February, we have already considered that dividends could stand between €100,000,000 €150,000,000 in a yearly basis. So you cannot extrapolate, but you can see over time that this will originate dividends to be paid to the shareholders, including to Sinopec. So concerning to the utilization rates in refining. So there are 2 contributions here. The margins refining margins were historically low, and therefore, that puts some pressure in terms of the refinery utilization also. What you can see is that going forward, our conversion capacity should stand at the maximum as possible because that's where we can get more value from our throughputs. And that's what we will expect. And as I mentioned before to Oswald, it is expected that as the year goes by and IMO approaches, we will we may see that the differentials between sweet and sours and at the same time the cracks in the diesel and also in the very low sulfur fuel oils will increase. So that we have and related also with the dollar per barrel, we do see that we might have a second half of the year that could be really positive for refining. The utilization rate always will take in consideration the optimization based on the economics that we provide to our refining system. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Flora Trinidad, CaixaBank BPI. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Yes, hello. Very short questions. Just wondering regarding the refining outlook, can you just update us on the OpEx you expect for the full year? And also regarding Iara, you mentioned unitization expected. Do you expect unitization agreement still during this year? Thank you. Good morning, Flora. Thank you for your two questions. So concerning the refining OpEx, so the liberalized refining OpEx should be should stand close by to $2 to $0.1 per barrel. And so if you take out the maintenance effects that we are taking for the interventions in the units. And the only intervention that we are planning for this year with relevance is, as I mentioned before, is in the atmospheric credit unit in Sines, and it is to implement one of the relevant initiatives related with the dollar per barrel. So for your consideration, it should be between $2.1 dollars per barrel. Concerning Iara, what I have to say is that all the agreements that will be required between the parties are already concluded, and they have been delivered to ANP, so to the regulator. And therefore, we are now expecting that ANP will properly and timely answer to that. Thank you. Thank you. We will now take our next question. And the question comes from Thomas Adolff, Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Good morning. Just one quick question, please. You have 3 key projects in 2019 and 2 of which have started up FPSO 9, in line with the revised guidance Kaombo in early April, slightly ahead and then the remaining project is Berbigao Sururu. So I just wanted to better understand what you assume for the ramp up pace on FPS-nine and where we are exactly on Berbigao Sururu? And how many wells have been pre drilled there? Thank you. So Thomas, good morning. I will split the answer between myself and Thor. So in terms of ramp up, what we have considered in our plans is a 15 months ramp up period of time. You may know that the previous experience that we have in more recent units, we stand between 11 12 months. But the plans that we have presented to you have considered 15 months. So that is one of the flexibilities that we may have. I'm speaking about Brazilian units, and that refers the 2 that are ramping up. In relation to Kaombo and as I mentioned to you, we expect to have the ramp up completed and the plateau production by before the end of this year, so which means between 6 7 months. Concerning Berbigao, I will pass to Thor just to pointing out that we have different perspectives in terms of which is the most likely scenario. We are assuming that Berbigao could be on streams in the Q4 of this year. But I will let Thor to elaborate on this subject. Thank you. Thank you, Tom. Just a few facts on Kaombo. We have actually drilled 9 of the 16 wells that we are planning to drill with respect to the new Tucson. We will, however, ramp up Combo Sul slightly slower than on Kombu North in order to make sure that we are managing the reservoir in a good way. So by the end of the year, it should reach plateau, but a little slower than what was done in Rambo North. When it comes to Berbigao and Sururu, there is 6 wells that is filled already in Berrigo and Sururu, 2 of which is completed, so are ready to be connected whenever the the release is on time. We are following this project very, very closely related to the group FDR 1.5 weeks ago. And the execution of this project is going to be very crucial. All the necessary equipment is at the yard. However, it's a project that requires the utmost utmost attention and focus in order to be able to be delivered within the time frame. But for now, we maintain before the end of the year as for first order. Thank you. So quickly, if I may, just a follow-up. Now assuming Berbigao Sururu slips into 2020, what does that mean to your 2019 production growth guidance of 8% to 12%? Our production forecast for 2019, we have not factored in a huge contribution from Berbigao, Sururu anyway. So this will not have any major impact on Berbigao on our 2019 production forecast. Thank you. Perfect. Thank you. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Jason Kenney from Santander. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, there. I'm going to have another go at the production number, if I can, for 2019. So I think you're guiding relatively flat Q on Q for Q2. So what kind of exit rate do you think we could see in 2019 from all of your particular projects? The second question is on the unitization with Iara and the I think you mentioned the €100,000,000 net compensation this year. Can you split that €100,000,000 euros versus well, between the Lula effects and the Iara compensation? And maybe just a third question, if I can. Where do you see tax rates moving to in the second quarter with refining that and that? And is there a normalization back towards 50%? Thanks. Hi, Jason. Good morning. So again, the guidance that we have provided to you, I have to reinforce because there's a lot of questions in that. It continues to be 8% to 12%. The exit production is worth less because what is important is the pace of growing during the year, and that is the most relevant one. We should spend above 120 1,000 barrels a day by the as an exit rate, but it is important is the pace that we reach there. In terms of unitization and recovering one of the questions that Thomas has also addressed. So the unitization in Iara fields are now waiting for ANP decision that we expect to have it during 2019. What has been mentioned, and Filipe has alluded to that, is that Galp is a net payer receiver sorry, in a net receiver position concerning both Lula and Iara. And it is around €100,000,000 So you can easily see that if Lula is negatively impacting around €100,000,000 so the remaining part comes from Iara. Thank you. Okay. And on the tax? Tax, yes. Philippe will address the tax part. Thank you. Good morning, Jason. Yes, indeed in Q1, we have a higher optical tax rate on the P and L. This is a mix effect. So we have negative results in downstream. We have results in upstream. So the weight of upstream is higher as you know. We should expect normalization in Q2 as downstream comes back. Thank you. Okay. Thanks. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you, gentlemen. So if we can go back to refining, is the $4 margin you referenced for April meant to be indicative for 2Q, especially given the improvement in U. S. Gasoline market? And secondly, could you update or remind us on how the remainder of 2019 looks on how much of the refining is hedged and at what level? Thank you. Your first question, the answer is yes. The $4 per barrel is indicative. Anyway, what we are seeing is that the gasoline cracks have they have recovered. Just to give you an idea, we came out from Eurobob Gasoline from $57 per ton to more than $145 per ton. And if you go to the RBOB gasoline, so which is the reference for the United States, it came from $95 to $190 So effectively, a huge difference between quarters. So I think with the gasoline season coming and with the recover on the gasoline cracks, we might see the refining margins going up. But in any case, it's our reading about the market. Concerning the hedging strategy, and as mentioned before, for 2019, we have hedged around 20% of our throughput at around $4 per barrel. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. And your next question Morning. Thanks for taking the questions. 2, if I could, please. Firstly, with preparations for 4Q transfer of rights auction appearing to move forward in Brazil, Could you share any latest thoughts on the opportunity set there and some of the key drivers that will influence how Galp looks to allocate capital towards it? And then second, coming back to the questions on refining margins, could you give a sense of how tightened year to date light heavy spreads are affecting Galp's ability to extract the margin premium? And if we relate that back to the full year plan you presented in February, how much better you'd assumed the second half of the year would be versus the first half? I'm still just trying to understand the confidence interval around hitting the $5 to $6 for the full year. Thank you. Hi, Matt. Good morning. So in Brazil and the excess of the terms of rights that has been recently announced and it's quite still some unclear how the auction will happen. So key points for Galp. We are attentive. Of course, Brazil is a strategic geography and geology for Galp. We are there for more than 20 years. We know quite well the geology. I think we have good partners there, and therefore, we will be attentive on that. That said, it's still unclear for us which will be the terms and conditions for the excess of transfer of rights. And therefore, we need more information to have a more informed position. But of course, it's something that we were waiting for some time ago, and we are prepared to move if we will think there is a right value on that. Concerning the refining margins, Everything that we can say, it's clearly speculative because it's based on the reading of the market. But what we are observing today is that gasoline cracks are increasing. We are also see that there are some fears in the market due to some the sensations that United States have now against some countries that are putting more pressure on the heavy grades. Therefore, there are concerns about the capacity of full supply in the market in terms of fuel oil. And that is sustaining the fuel oil spreads and the IMO is coming. So the maximum conversion capacity will also be required. So we are in a compound of different contributions that are each one individually seems easy to explain and to see the impact that might happen to the refining margin. But globally, we cannot say that all will be aligned favorably. We do think that the $5 to $6 a barrel, it's a probable case. And that's the reason why we are reaffirming our guidance for the year over. You can see also at the same time that the yields related with the crude slate that are in the market are reducing the fuel oil. And that is putting also pressure or complying with IMO in the middle distillate. Effectively, we have here a compound that is unique. It will be repeatable possibly in the coming years, but could be triggering what someone could call and let me put that on the breakouts and a perfect storm related with this business. Thank you. Clear. Thanks, Carlos. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Alwyn Thomas, Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi, good morning, team. I just wanted to ask initially on your exploration and drilling plans for this year, including the rest of Carcara, whether you're able to give a little bit more detail on that. Separately, on the unitization of Lula, are you still pursuing separate tax treatment for the Iracema and Lula fields? And the third one, if I may, just related to refining investment outlook. Could you give specific timing on the atmospheric upgrading plans this year? And potentially what you're thinking on the medium term in terms of converting away from gasoline yield? Thanks. Hi, Helene. Good morning. I will take the second and the third questions, Antoine will elaborate in exploration initiatives for the year. So the answer to the tax question related with Lula and Diracema, the answer is yes. So they are independent and separate reservoirs. And you know that from the tax purpose, we are considering and we are paying taxes based in a single one, but we still have these disputes with ANP, as you know. So we are preventing any future different considerations. But from the geological point of view, they are independent. And as the same happens with the Arafjoels, They are independent fields. We have Sururu, Berbigao and Atapu as independent fields and therefore with different investments, so the ones that we have undergoing are most related with regular maintenance initiatives and the dollar per barrel initiative. For the medium term, and as I've previously mentioned to you, we are looking at sorry, what we can call our future refining system and taking in consideration how we can get more valuable solution for our throughput, for our outcomes, considering the possibility to increase our exposure to the supplying, so to the feedstocks for aromatic purposes and also to getting more lighter hydrocarbon yields from our system. So I think in the short term is the maintenance and the dollar per barrel. And I mentioned to you before that the Sines distillation crude unit will have a maintenance intervention precisely to implement one of the projects that is energy efficient related with the dollar per barrel. But the conversion units will stay at full availability. So Thor, could you please elaborate on the exploration? Thank you. So Alvin, on the exploration and particularly with respect to Cattera and Cattera and Northeast, the operations have gone really well from a technical point of view. The data acquisition has also been good. We have informed the market that there is some oil discovery. That is now being evaluated as we are continuing acquiring data. We are now at around a little bit more than 6,500 meters. We are considering whether this we should call this TD or whether we should go further. Next step for us will then be to go into DST. It's very important for us here to conduct a proper DST to understand better the physical processes for the reservoir. But so far, so good. And we need to go through an evaluation basis, if you can say anything more. Thank you. Okay. Thanks, team. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Yes. Thank you very much. I think these are mainly questions to clarify a few of the things you've said. Carlos, earlier you talked about a business plan reflecting EUR 100,000,000 EUR 150,000,000 of dividend payments. Maybe I didn't quite understand. Could you put that please into context against the EUR 68,000,000 dividend payment that you're showing in Q1 and that you're suggesting is a one off? Secondly, as far as the operating lease addition onto your balance sheet is concerned, I wonder which net debt EBITDA figure you've given us, 0.7% or 1.3% matters to you more these days? I appreciate you don't have a credit rating that's published, but maybe any additional color you could give us here would be helpful. And lastly, just wanted to test again whether you can be a bit more specific in terms of your outlook on the Gas and Power business, particularly what you call the network trading activity that seems to have gone really well in the Q1. Is that something we should expect at this rate going forward? Thank you. Hi, Chris. Good morning. So I will take the first and the third question. Filipe will go through the second one. So in terms of the dividends paid by Petrobrasil to their shareholders and therefore to Sinopec. So you should see that all the free cash flow, unless it will be required for further investments, will be paid to the shareholders as dividends going forward. What I've mentioned to you is that during 2019 and based on the assumptions that we have taken for macro environment, we may consider that the dividend to be paid to Sinopec could stand between €100,000,000 €150,000,000 And that will increase over time as the production wheel goes up and depending, of course, on the free cash flow that will be released. And again, future in the reinvestment opportunities, since if we will find out valuable investment opportunities, this free cash flow, it will be prioritized for reinvesting. Otherwise, it will go back to the shareholders, including, of course, Galp. In the Gas and Power, yes, there are a set of initiatives that have been implemented and now we are seeing them flourish. The reorganization of the Gas and Power business is a reality. So today, we have a much healthier and well managed and controlled operation, which means that we are able to take more advantage from our Iberian position. But looking at the trading activities and therefore the one that is related with the European gas apps as we used to say the trading the network trading business, it's progressing, it's progressing healthier as the time goes by. And with a few or no working capital requirement, because this is based on daily transactions. And I think the team is now today in a much better position to continue to promote and develop this business. Looking to the full year and considering the guidance that we have provided to you of having Gas and Power with an EBITDA between €100,000,000 and €160,000,000 I tend to consider that we'll stay in the right size of this interval in French for the full year. So Philippe, can you go in the second question, please? Hi, Chris. At least for this year, we will continue to publish numbers before and after IFRS 16. As far as our covenants with the members, they will specifically exclude the impact of IFRS 16 in our covenants. So from a lender's perspective, this is not Now mind you that Galp is including in its free cash flow statement the repayment of deemed capital that we pay out every month when we pay the operating leases. So that's already net of the free cash flow. So we think it is also coherent that the debt within the debt to EBITDA ratio is also before the lease obligations. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of John Rigby, UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you. First question I wanted to ask was on the BMS-eight, the 2nd sorry, the Carcara North second discovery. Can you just, to the extent you can, maybe give a bit more color on what this means or what it may mean in terms of how you think about the development? Should the results of the test that you're about to take forward be successful or towards the better end of prognosis? I mean, how important are these about sort of delineating and defining what the future development is going to look like? And to that point actually and related to a couple of other questions that have come up, it's notable you've not actually written off or amortized any kind of exploration expense for about 5 or 6 quarters now. So I noticed with the Seismic acquisition, etcetera, there's a bit more exploration going on. Should we be expecting some sort of impact on the income statement of exploration activity? So that was one question, sort of testing the limits. The second question was around gas. And I just wanted to ask, you alluded to the fact that Mozambique will likely be FID this year. You've obviously made some sort of early commitment to taking volumes. I just wondered whether you thought that the existing Gas and Power business that you have rooted in Iberia has the critical mass to sort of support a LNG marketing business implied by the type of commitment that you likely will make around offtake around Mozambique? Thank you. Hi, John. Good morning. I will take the second question and the combination of the 2 first, Karl will elaborate on that. So from the gas and power and specifically the LNG or the natural gas supply basket. So you should bear in mind that we are working towards the full reorganization of our gas supply basket. We have been done in that effort in the last 1, 2 years. And one of the initiatives that we have already implemented was precisely to expose ourselves to the United States supply. So we are trying to find out diversification of sources, diversification of counterparties, diversification in terms of maturities, diversification of indexes and therefore Mozambique will play an important role in these reorganizations. So you know that some of the existing contracts will end from 2020 onwards, namely with Algeria and with Nigeria. We are already working with these 2 counterparts in order to review the contract and to review the possibilities of continuing to have a relationship in the future. But precisely by having a relevant Iberian position allow us to have long term contract. And by having long term contracts, we can aspire to have a supply chain, a supply basket that could allow us to be a part a player in the global market precisely by using equity gas, which is one of the innovations that we are bringing to our work. So yes, I think approaching consistently with both on one side reorganization of our supply gas basket and the other keeping and strengthening our position in Iberia that allow us to continue to expand our equity. So could you please elaborate on that one? Yes. I would like to do that to John. So when it comes to BMSA, let me phrase it like this that we are encouraged by the results, but it is too early to make any conclusions on what the Qatar North results really are. And they require much deeper analysis, including AGST. But please remember that for the first phase, we are already very well advanced when it comes to sort of deciding a groundbreaking and a novelty for Brazil, namely that we would go for a 20000 to 20,000 barrels per day FPSO. We have said that we believe there is a breakeven below $40 per barrel, and that's indicating some of the profitability and the quality of that asset. And now it is for us to then to continue to evaluate what the North will give us. What seems to be already the case is that with the 2 wells that we now have, namely Cascara Northwest and now Cascara Northeast, we have sufficient we believe we have sufficient information to also take the decision with respect to how to develop also the 2nd phase. The focus of Gulf now, together with the partners, is to maximize speed to first oil, number 1. And number 2 is to shorten the first and the second FVSO as much as possible in order to maximize value for our shareholders. That's where we have our focus. Thank you. And with respect to the exploration write offs, yes, we have not seen this because we have changed our practice and that goes no directly to the cost of where we are writing on a monthly basis or quarterly basis. Okay. Thank you. That's great. Thank you. And your last question comes from the line of Michael Alsford from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hello all. Thanks for taking my questions. I just got a couple if I could. Just coming back to the medium term plans for the refining system. When would you look to be able to launch a more major investment into that system? And how big could you potentially see that range on investment being? And then just secondly on the E and P business, I was just wondering whether you could elaborate a little bit more on what the final hurdles are to take FID on the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique? Thank you. Good morning, Michael. Thank you. So in terms of the refining system, we are still analyzing. So it's a value question for us always. We are looking attentively for both increasing conversion and as we are looking at possible increasing in terms of feedstocks for aromatics purposes. So I think we will have to elaborate more on this in the next coming months and get back to you in our Capital Markets Day that should be happen by October. Concerning the Rovuma onshore project, we are working towards the FID during this year, so the sooner the better. There are a complexity of different initiatives being taken by all the parties. And once we will be capable to conclude them, including the approvals from the government of Mozambique, we will be in that position. But we are for the moment, we are considering that during this year, we might be in a position to take the FID. Thank you. Okay. Thanks, Carlos. Well, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention. We hope you have found this update useful. And I remind you that you have the IR team always available for additional clarifications. Have a great day. Goodbye.