Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (ELI:GALP)
Portugal flag Portugal · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
19.28
-0.14 (-0.72%)
May 13, 2026, 2:44 PM WET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2025

Mar 2, 2026

Maria João Carioca
Co-CEO and CFO, Galp

Hello, everyone, and thank you for watching. I am pleased to present Galp's full year 2025 results and short-term outlook. 2025 was a remarkable year for Galp, with consistently strong operational performance, disciplined project execution, and rather meaningful portfolio evolutions enhancing our investment case. Starting with our 2025 performance, operational excellence was particularly evident both in upstream and downstream businesses, driving a strong year of delivery ahead of guidance. In upstream, we achieved record uptimes across our units, delivering a production level of 111,000 bbl per day. As testament to the quality and reliability of our assets as well as to the active reservoir management efforts, Tupi and Iracema delivered above 2024 levels, once again reaching 1 million barrels produced per day on a gross basis.

Midstream gas trading activities reaped the benefits of enhanced flexibility following the start of new LNG supplies from the U.S. These strong results helped cushion a weaker refining contribution, mainly reflecting the large turnaround in the fourth quarter. In commercial, we posted a record high EBITDA of EUR 384 million for the year, as continued growth in convenience was reinforced by improved market conditions in Spain. Overall, group EBITDA reached EUR 3 billion in 2025, whilst operating cash flow stood at EUR 2.2 billion, higher year-on-year despite a drop of more than $10 in Brent and a much weaker U.S. dollar. Free cash flow was EUR 1.2 billion.

An expected working capital build versus the unusually low position at the end of 2024 was more than offset by the divestment proceeds of EUR 1 billion, broadly matching our organic CapEx level. After rewarding shareholders with a 15% hike to dividend and executing a EUR 250 million share buyback, we retained a solid financial position with net debt standing at 0.5 x EBITDA by year-end. 2025 was also marked by strong project execution. In Brazil, Bacalhau FPSO reached first oil in October with ramp up progressing according to plan. A second producer well has recently been connected. In Iberia, construction progressed in the advanced biofuels unit for HVO and SAF production, as well as on the 100 MW green hydrogen electrolyzer, with all 10 stacks now installed. Startup for both projects is expected for late 2026, early 2027.

At the same time, a further 150 MW of renewable solar capacity started operations, expanding future optionality in a growing power market. 2025 set in motion significant strategic developments that reshape and enhance Galp's portfolio. In Namibia, early in the year, we safely drilled the fifth well, opening a new exciting exploration area in the southeast section of the Mopane complex. This paved the way to a strong partnership with TotalEnergies in the country, establishing clear alignment on the path forward for Mopane, substantially reducing Galp's financial exposure and reinforcing our upstream funnel through participation in the more advanced Venus project. Galp now has a far more tangible production growth profile. Early in 2026, we announced a non-binding agreement with Moeve shareholders to assess a potential combination of our downstream activities, primarily in Iberia.

The discussions are focused on evaluating the creation of two independent platforms, a retail-focused mobility business and an industrial platform integrating refining and related activities that could create greater scale, resilience, and investment returns. We see this as a clear opportunity to sharpen Galp's focus and free cash flow profile while improving exposure to Iberian downstream markets with ring-fenced, self-funded satellites positioned to leverage scale, capture efficiencies, and accelerate energy transition solutions. Looking ahead, we do so with continued drive for growth, supported by discipline and paced execution. Acknowledging the important developments in downstream, we are limiting guidance to 2026, assuming Brent at approximately $60 and a euro dollar exchange rate of 1.18. Upstream production growth will remain a key driver, largely offsetting the weaker macro deck year-on-year.

Supported by the ongoing infill well campaign in Tupi and Iracema and the continued ramp up of Bacalhau, we estimate 2026 production at 125,000-230,000 bbl per day. In industrial and midstream, refining throughput is expected up after the large planned maintenance in 2025, and LNG cargoes from the U.S. are being lifted as per the delivery schedule, albeit in a context of narrowed gas price spreads. We therefore expect to sustain a sound contribution from this division with EBITDA set to surpass EUR 700 million. In commercial, we will continue to drive a lean business, remodeling our network and growing convenience contribution, whilst in renewables we aim to deploy at least 300 MW, ensuring a disciplined approach and targeting returns close to double-digit.

Overall, for 2026, we expect EBITDA above EUR 2.6 billion and operating cash flow to surpass EUR 2 billion. Organic CapEx is expected at around EUR 1 billion in the year. CapEx towards Bacalhau is ramping down as planned, but guidance now includes our plans in Namibia, namely the one well in Mopane and the FID of Venus. Accounting for the proceeds from divestments already collected, these organic investments position us comfortably on our net CapEx guidance for 2025, 2026 of below EUR 0.8 billion per annum on average, still allowing room to capture any potential portfolio opportunity as we look into adding further depth to our upstream funnel and optimization solutions in renewables.

Maintaining our distribution framework intact into 2026 based on the 1/3 of OCF headline, we will submit to the upcoming AGM a 4% DPS increase of EUR 0.64 related to 2025, and we will soon launch a EUR 250 million share buyback to be executed throughout the year, sustained year-on-year even under a more challenging macro context. Overall, growth remains the North Star of Galp's portfolio, with recent developments further expanding and de-risking our opportunities funnel as we evolve our equity story. Together, João and I look forward to continue building out unique investment case. Thank you for watching.

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