Morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Galp's third quarter 2026 results presentation. I will now pass the floor to João Gonçalves Pereira, Head of Investor Relations.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Galp's third quarter 2026 Q&A session. I am joined today by our Co-CEOs, Maria João Carioca and João Marques da Silva, as well as by the remaining Executive team. Before passing the mic for some quick opening remarks, let me start with our usual disclaimer. During today's session, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current estimates. Actual results could differ due to factors outlined in our cautionary statement within the published materials. With this, João Marques da Silva, the floor is yours.
Thank you, João. Well, before turning to our quarterly performance, I would like to briefly address this morning's announcements. As disclosed, the discussions with Moeve have concluded without an agreement. Throughout this process, the parties remained committed to exploring the potential benefits of combining downstream activities to create additional value to our shareholders. We continue to believe that consolidation can create opportunities to increase scale, strengthen competitiveness, and support future growth. At the same time, our confidence in the standalone value of our downstream business has never changed. While the strategic rationale for consolidation remains compelling, value discipline will always guide our decisions. We remain open to opportunities, but we only deliver them on terms that clearly create long-term value for our shareholders. Turning to the quarter, strategy execution remains firmly on track.
In Brazil, Bacalhau's ramp-up is progressing as planned, with production already reaching peak levels on several days. In Namibia, we are about to start drilling the next exploration and appraisal campaign in Mopane. These milestones reinforce the core pillar of Galp's investment case. Visible, tangible growth from our upstream portfolio. Maria João, would you like to add a few words?
Thank you, João. Yes, I would, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by reinforcing João's message regarding this morning's announcement. Capital discipline on value accretion is simply non-negotiable. Ultimately, the deal didn't go through simply because we were unable to align on a value-creating partnership. That said, Galp's investment case and capital allocation priorities remain strong and distinctive. We continue to be fully confident on the standalone value of our downstream businesses, and our equity story continues to offer a quite unique combination of growth, resilience, and optionality. This third quarter speaks precisely to the strength and resilience of our portfolio. Despite continued disruption across global energy markets, our asset base successfully captured the volatility and actually delivered another strong operational performance.
This performance translated into rather robust cash generation, accommodating both the higher working capital requirements and the acquisition of the wind portfolio announced in July. Net debt remained broadly stable, and our balance sheet position was further reinforced. Following another strong quarter and updating our assumptions for the remaining of the year, we once again raise our full year guidance. We now expect EBITDA of around EUR 5 billion and operating cash flow close to EUR 3.9 billion. Our focus remains clear: delivering operational excellence, executing our strategy with discipline, and maximizing value creation. With that, we're happy to take your questions. Operator, we may start the Q&A session.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To ensure everyone has the opportunity to ask a question today, please limit yourself to just two questions. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Thank you. And now we take our first question. First question comes from the line of Joshua Stone from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, and good morning, everyone. Two questions for you. One, you talk about your capital allocation priorities remaining unchanged. Can you just remind us, where do you see shareholder distributions fitting into that frame? And can you confirm that your policy of a third of cash flow being returned to shareholders is also unchanged? And then second, slightly smaller question, but just on the upstream operating costs. I noticed a bit of a step-up to $4.4 a barrel unit cost. Is it fair to say that's probably a normal run rate now as we have Bacalhau ramped up and going into the future periods? Thanks.
Good morning, Josh. Thank you for the questions. On distributions, we continue to look at our framework as rather competitive and sustainable. We have indeed approached the topic of revisiting following a portfolio change. That, with this morning's announcement, is no longer the case, so we don't see that as a topic on the table as of this moment. As we stand right now, the current policy applies, hence the one-third of OCF is still what we have outlined at the moment. On upstream, your question on OpEx. Yes, indeed. I think this is the combination of both a slightly heavier maintenance schedule in July, so this quarter had that bit of a seasonality effect. But it is also, of course, the fact that Bacalhau is still on a ramp-up and we still have a bit of fluctuation there.
There were still a few one-off costs in Bacalhau as well. All in all, not what you would call your new normal in Brazil at all. Thank you.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question today comes from the line of Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is regarding those comments about that Galp is open to strategic partnerships. If you can elaborate on that and the potential in some transactions in some other areas like renewables, for example, you have been discussing in the past. My second question is about we are now almost end of the year. If you can start discussing 2027, how you see in terms of particularly of the upstream business, in terms of volume, if possible. Thank you.
Gracias, and good morning, Alejandro. On the first question. It is clear on our DNA how partnerships make sense for a company like us, long-term partnerships. You are right. We are looking within our portfolio, we are looking into opportunities. It is something that we do on a regular basis. It is also true that on the renewable side, the recent acquisitions improved scale, improved the technology mix, increasing the platform's strategic attractiveness. It is clear that we are much well-prepared now. We are not in a hurry, that is very clear. At this point also, no further inorganic acquisitions are planned. But finally, it will be always, as Maria João just said, a disciplined decision-making. No pressure, steady pace, and the partnerships will make sense not only in renewables, but also as we spoke on the downstream.
The rationale and the end game, even on the downstream side, though we did not find a good end to the deal, will remain. That is something that we need to keep in our minds. Thank you.
Alejandro, let me pick up on your 2027 question and on upstream in particular. We are not yet guiding for full production numbers, but you can get the gist, right? Bacalhau has been evolving towards plateau quite steadily, so we do expect Bacalhau to be there throughout 2027. That as working interest pro rata means approximately 40,000 barrels. Given that, plus the fact that our remaining assets in Brazil are still holding to a rather low and actually best practice in the industry, a rather low depletion rate, under 5%. Tupi has a number of initiatives that have brought us back to our prior levels. You just take current levels, give it the bump of Bacalhau, and we are not officially guiding, but I think the mathematics kind of works on a pretty straightforward manner. Thank you.
Thank you. Maria João.
Thank you. Next question today comes from Matt Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one would be around Moeve, if I could. I guess you expressed quite strong confidence in completing this deal in the past, and now value seems to be a sticking point. Are you able to shed any further light on that? Does the volatility of commodity prices and perhaps even political backdrops, whether it be windfall taxes or other conversations, have they been a bit of a headwind there? Can you comment on that? The follow on would really be could you foresee a similar transaction in the future with a different party as it relates to the downstream business?
Usually a very steady and improving business performance there, but at quite a sizable beat. Could you add any color and draw out any one-offs, if at all relevant, please? Thank you.
Good morning, Matt, and thank you for the question. Let me start by giving a word of appreciation to the teams that have been working for the last couple of months. It was indeed a lengthy negotiation period. As you said, we need to come to an end, and that's what happened right now. I would not comment on any specific terms that you've mentioned. It was a combination that on the end, in the commercial terms, didn't allow us to reach a sustainable and value-accretive deal. That's all. It was indeed a last mile decision, but it was a very well-supported decision. Let me also tell you that we are really comfortable with the quality of the assets that we hold. It's visible on the delivery that you've just mentioned.
On the commercial side, we still believe, and it's part of our way to develop or to reach a partnership to segregate the commercial retail business from the industrial business. It makes all the sense, and we will follow that. On the commercial question, it's indeed a high record quarter. I need to say that more than 80% of the delivery came from outside of Portugal, namely from Spain, namely from the B2B. We were very well performing-
On the spot markets and with the opportunities that the current context pricing-wise are offering to us. Let me also underline the very substantial performance from the convenience side, which represents by now roughly one-third of the delivery. It's a very consistent pattern that we've delivered to the market. Let me also tell you that on the Portuguese side, we've decreased 10% roughly our delivery. So the African business, the Spanish business are the levers to the numbers that you've just seen. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Guilherme Levy, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, on Mopane, and in terms of the downstream segment as a whole, would you consider a restructuring that does not necessarily involve a partner? Would you consider spinning off downstream even if you are not able to scale up first? Secondly, in terms of longer-term plans and guidance, I suppose a difficulty in the past few quarters for Galp has been the continuous restructuring or [GEO stocks on Namibia last year, on Mopane this year. Now that the talks with Mopane did not advance, but you still left the door half open to potentially do some more restructuring in the subsidiary in the future. How should we think about the impact that that has to your ability to provide longer-term guidance over the coming quarters? Thank you.
Thanks, Guilherme. I will take the first one, and Maria João will take the second one. I can see where you go, but it does not make too much sense for us not to have a partnership on the downstream, considering not only the scale, complementary competitiveness, but also the consolidation. That is something that it would not make any sense to keep 100% of this business in a future partnership. That is how we see it. For us, clearly, the retail play is completely different from the industrial play, which is an investment case. Considering energy transition, we feel ourselves in the right direction in Sines. We really believe that Sines will continue to be a first-tier refinery, very well balanced and dimensioned to the Portuguese market, which is her natural market to the refinery.
The retail business, which is a clear focus on the customer side, where we lead in Portugal, and with delivery that we have just mentioned, are breaking records quarter on quarter. That is where we see ourselves very comfortable and available to look at partnerships that will allow us to gain scale competitiveness on both ends. Thank you.
Good morning, Guilherme. Let me take the second part of your question. It has indeed been a period of negotiation that has entailed quite a lot of work for the teams, but quite a lot of that work has actually been helpful in the sense that it has shown us pathways towards optimizing some of our operations towards greater efficiency in running some of our support functions. There is quite a few lessons learned from the process that we engaged in, and we see that as something that we will continue throughout the coming years. There is the same lines of optimization that I believe have been with us for quite some time, but now with the benefit of having taken some learnings from the transaction. We will continue to optimize on support functions.
We will continue to look into everything that has to do with optimizing the portfolio. We've already spoken here today about renewables. We do see some catalysts for optimization there. We do know that upstream continues to be our growth engine, and there also, Mopane is about to go into a new stage, and we do continue to look at Brazil as promising, and even small opportunities can turn into interesting options. Quite a few catalysts there. We will continue to look into partnerships and into market structures as a way forward in our portfolio, and we will take opportunities to optimize, and we do feel that this is a way forward that has actually been to quite some extent, a beneficial one. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question comes from Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hello all. Thank you very much. The first one is just a little bit about the renewables deal. You've been through two big negotiations over the past year and a half, Mopane and Moeve.
I want to see if there's any learnings you could take from those discussions around how you think about the strategic options you have for the renewables deal. Is there anything you might have done differently in those discussions, and that could translate into any possible future options? Secondly, on refining margins, it's been very volatile. You've raised your macro scenario for the year to $25 a barrel. Can I ask what you've seen so far in 4Q to date and what you're seeing on screen today for refining margins? Then to touch on next year, this year you have hedged, I think it was one-third of your portfolio, about $8 a barrel. Are you planning to do similar hedging next year? What sort of price assumptions should we be using for that? Thank you very much.
Well, thank you for your question, Paul, and I'll follow the two questions. On the first one, it's clear on the learning side, what we've done and the recent acquisitions that I've just mentioned. So they've improved our scale. They gave us a different generation profile, a different mix, and it's clear on the results that we are much more balanced right now considering the consolidation of the two wind farms that we just bought. The objectives in the end will be to create additional capital flexibility, we know that, while we want to maintain our exposure to the long-term power growth that we see in the market. So that's very clear. Both strategic and financial partnerships are possible. No structure is excluded at this point. But it's very early now. As I said, no further inorganic acquisitions are planned.
We will keep our discipline, not pressure whatsoever, but at a steady pace. On the refining margins, it's indeed a very volatile environment. We expect margins to keep on the double figures. We've seen, as per today, margins going above 20. We are not expecting to see a reduced volatility. Hedging, we use hedging selectively when the market prices exceed Galp's market belief. That's how we see it. The policy reserves those bottoms, and then nothing to change. A few legacy hedges are still in place for 2027, slightly above 15%, that's the number. We will stick to our policy as I've mentioned. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question today comes from Kate O'Sullivan from Citi. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, back on the downstream. Following the end of the Moeve talks, will you remain active in the market now pursuing the downstream partnership, or do you feel the current environment is not optimal, perhaps? Secondly, just a question on the Rovuma LNG contingent payment. Would a 4Q FID trigger receipt of the full contingent consideration within the quarter, and can you clarify the payment lag after FID or any tax deductions that could affect net proceeds? Thanks.
Thanks, Kate. Good morning. I will take the first one, and Maria João will take the second one. The transaction, and Maria João just alluded to that, was a catalyst. It is not our investment thesis. We will continue to offer this distinctive growth story to the market. We know that there is a transformation that will allow us to benefit from scale and competitive on the downstream side. The transformation will keep on our side. We will be prepared to face potential transactions, but we are not active right now in the market.
To the second part of your question, Kate. Yes, indeed. If I recall correctly, this should be a 20 business day mark once we get FID. Should it take place within those 20 business days, it will be still in the quarter. Let us see what news we get then on that front.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from Sasikanth Chilukuru from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to come back to Moeve just because previously you highlighted the proposed sale help Galp sharpen its focus on the upstream and the renewable side. If you were to retain full control of these businesses, and you said you're not necessarily actively marketing it, I just wanted to understand how you think about the longer-term strategy for these businesses. How do they fit in perhaps through your capital allocation priorities as well? You said it remains intact, but I just wanted to see if you can elaborate on what that means, and even if you were to retain this full control of these businesses. The second question was going back to the refining outlook. You talked about $20 per barrel right now.
Just wondering if you can provide more context on where you're seeing these high refining margins on your outlook, maybe perhaps on a product basis, especially if you could talk about the diesel market that you're seeing right now, how it's kind of shaping up.
Thanks, Sasikanth. On the first one, as we know, our commercial business, it's truly a cash generator. We have a leadership position in Portugal, and we feel really comfortable with the current situation that we have, though there is a carve-out process that we need to keep going on that. That's the transformation that we've been dealing with for the last couple of months, and we will keep doing that to allow us to fully segregate the businesses of commercial and industrial. On the industrial front, as you know, we are in the final ramp-up of the major investments that we are doing in Sines, which means that we will be positive cash flow next year. We are in the pre-commissioning phase right now with no major turnaround planned to 2027 and within a very interesting environment, as you mentioned.
We have, on your second question, roughly 50% of the Russian refining capacity outside of the market. We are still observing the mid distillates in a very, well, let's say, tight momentum, and we are benefiting from that. We need to also understand how the freights are pushing up and making additional pressure on the margins. That is why in the beginning of October, we have seen some lower margins. But at this point, we see very sustainable and fundamental to assume a double-digit margin to 2027, at least the first quarter. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Ahmed Ben Salem from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. It is regarding the Namibia drilling program. What are the key objectives and decision point of the upcoming Mopane drilling campaign, and when should we expect sufficient visibility on resource and FID timing? In parallel, what level of capital exposure should we assume across Galp's Namibian portfolio over the next two to three years, and is another farm down part of the strategy? Thank you.
Thank you, Ahmed. For Namibia, and particularly for Mopane, the next stage is fundamentally one of E&A. All the wells that are expected are again going on an objective which hinges fundamentally around de-risking the resources and making sure that we are ready to get to an optimal development concept. We have very strong alignment with TotalEnergies on this. What we're now starting is the E&A campaign. The first Mopane 4X is going to be essentially exploratory. We will be developing DSTs in tandem according to results. If you recall, we tapped into the southeast end of the block, but that is one of the areas where we clearly see our focus, and that's the untapped extension is where we're going to be focusing. All procurement is pretty much in place. We will be starting with the southeast, looking for de-risking and developing the concept.
We'll see how it goes. Should we get results that are positive and see good pace, we may choose to drive this back to back, but that's still up for discussion and clearly subject to our results. Let's see how it goes, and let's take one drill at a time. Concerning the CapEx level, you will recall that the terms of the carry keep us at only 25%. Again, we will see the pace depending on results and depending on whether or not we'll be deploying DSTs as well. But in any case, this at this point is something that will be carried only in 25% by Galp. A possible farm down is not something we have on the table right now.
We're very focused on developing the concept and delivering first oil, and we do hold the asset as one that we find very positive in our portfolio. Not active right now. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question today comes from Ignacio Doménech from JB Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, yes, thank you for taking my question. The first one is on the upstream business. Just wanted to get a sense on the oil discounts in the fourth quarter. What are you seeing so far in the month of October, if this should soften a bit versus what we saw in the third quarter, particularly if the pressure on tanker rates eases. My second question is related with the shareholder distribution. You've iterated that one third of the OCF, and last quarter, you already lifted the cash dividend. So I was wondering on that relationship between the dividends and the buyback, how management or the board views that buyback, particularly at the current level of the share price, and if potentially there's other options that management may be contemplating in order to create long-term value for shareholders. Thank you.
Thank you, Ignacio Doménech. Starting with upstream and what we see in terms of conditions, it has indeed been quite a volatile quarter versus now beginning of October. But all in all, we saw a lot of what's happening with the discounts and the premiums in our Brazilian slates, very much impacted by what's been happening in terms of Asian demand. We had a pressing third quarter, but right now we've also seen quite a rebound. So we're again back up to approximately, I'd say about $10 of premium, maybe a bit above that. The complexity is still there, but all in all, what we see is that our Atlantic refiners are favoring a lot these short haul routes, and that is also weighing in and contributing to this rebound that we see, and we see some ability to sustain that going forward.
Freight is also a very strong consideration, and we also saw quite some fluctuation there. Usually we would have our freight, and we are very much on spot, so usually we would have our freight at the $3-$4 per barrel. We had quite a bit of a height in October. It went all the way up to the 20s. You know the dynamics there. It has to do with how concentrated the industry is. It has also to do with the fact that Gulf is not yet stable, so there's a lot of redirecting, a lot of very different traffic and movements going on there, and that is to some extent pressuring the fleet in general and of course reflecting on an operator such as ourselves that has a significant part of its freight costs in spot.
But all in all, we also see some fluctuations there, and we expect conditions to become normalized. All in all, the premiums in October that we've seen have been compensating by Asia and with less pressure from freight. All in all, we're back to the 10s in terms of premiums. In terms of distributions, what I get from your question, the one-third distribution policy encompasses the dividends. The one-third meets the annual growth of dividend per share, which we announced in August that we would be growing at 10% per year this year given the very good performance. So we've already paid out the first part of that 10% growth. We will be paying the next component and the remainder of that all the way up to the one-third will be a decision by the shareholders, and we will be announcing it as results close.
So at this stage, the policy holds. The final format of that payment will be up for consideration once we have the final results. Thank you.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. The next question comes from Matt Lofting from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking the questions. Two, please. Your commentary seems to suggest that Galp continues to see strategic partnerships as an avenue to unlock value potential, particularly downstream. When you take stock, how has the perception of the merits of these structures been conceptually influenced by the Moeve process through 2026? If it has been enhanced under better value parameters and scenarios, just wondering how you see the way forward from here in terms of next steps to unlock that. Then secondly, you mentioned freight cost just now. There is another area of the value chain that has clearly been volatile in recent weeks and months. But if freight costs were to stay higher, could you just talk about how that impacts a business like Galp's in an aggregate sense, perhaps both upstream and downstream? Thank you.
Hey, Matt. Good morning, and thank you for your question. Indeed, it was a long, lengthy process within the Moeve review. A number of lessons learned, namely on the carve out. It was something very, very important for us. Our teams work together on the segregation from the retail business and the industrial business. The strategic rationale is still compelling. We really see ourselves looking forward to a transaction. But at this stage, I would say that no deal is better than a bad deal. That's how we see it. We are very confident on the portfolio that we have. No pressure whatsoever to have a transaction. The future partnerships need to have the alignment, the credibility, and the transparency that we need to evolve through businesses like the industrial business in Portugal, but also the commercial business. Thank you.
On freight costs, we continue to operate a portfolio that has both legs to it. These impacts are twofold in our portfolio, both in terms of refining, but also of our oil business. To some extent, there's a little bit of a natural balancing in some of these pressures, and we will continue to look at them as such. What we are also considering is options in terms of extending our mid-term charters. Current circumstances are such that we will, of course, need to look at that in a very disciplined way.
It's a very tight market, but we've relied fundamentally on spot tanker markets. We feel that if pressure in the markets continues, it will be worthy an assessment towards looking at our current policy and seeing if we can get better terms, and continue to weigh these two arms in a way that's more balanced and less risk-prone. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question today comes from Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Two remaining questions for me. The first one is whether you had any clarity of how the CapEx carry in Namibia will be treated from an accounting perspective, if it ends up being net CapEx that you report, or the whole CapEx and the carry becomes accounted like a loan. Any clarity there will be helpful. Finally, still staying in Namibia, I was just wondering what is left to take the FID in Venus? My understanding is there are some tax negotiations going on, but any more clarity there will be very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, Michele. The accounting treatment of the carry terms is not 100% closed, but in principle, the 25% of our carry will be pushed through cash flow. So take it as ongoing work, but as a reference. Concerning the FID in Venus. Again, very aligned with TotalEnergies. We see this as a core first development for both ourselves and for the country and for the basin. So we do see constructive progress, but it will be the first instance, so it is particularly relevant that whatever measures are possible towards reinforced feasibility are taken from both parties. So it is clearly on finalized talks. Let's hope that it evolves. It is our expectation that it now comes together and closes soon. In any case, EPC providers have been selected, so the conditions for continued and for offers towards continued sound economics are still there.
So, constructive, complex, but we are really hoping on this being the actual finalizing talks and for closure soon. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question today comes from James Carmichael from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning, guys. Just a couple left from myself. Just on, I guess in the midstream commentary, you referenced legacy sourcing contracts in Africa as being a contributor to the strong results there. Just wondering if you could sort of remind us on what flexibility that gives you and any sort of numbers around the impact of those contracts. Then just looking at the price lag effect in the oil products business, it seemed a bit less obvious in Q3 than it was in Q1. Just wondering if you were able to mitigate it or if it's just a bit masked because of the strength in the underlying performance in that segment. Thanks.
Thank you, James. I'll take the first one. Indeed, the African volumes, together with some additional cargoes and some additional volumes that we've delivered in the Iberian market, allowed us to increase our results on the midstream. It's also important to analyze that the eventual Venture Global contract represents additional cargoes also from the U.S. So that's also an important factor to leverage the results in the quarter, and on the ninth month up to now. Of course, we are looking into additional flexibility. We will not underestimate the opportunity even to renegotiate additional volumes from the African countries. So that's something that we believe we can do along the side of the number of years, 20 years now, that we've been with these parties. So that's a reference that we should also take with us. Thank you.
James, let me pick up on the price lag effect. So, indeed only an accounting effect, not cash, as I'm sure you were well aware of. No major changes. So we do have accounting mismatches between how we price sales versus how we price the cost of those sales. But we've gone through some of those effects already in the first quarter. At this moment, we are eroding some of those effects and now continuing to experience them as markets continue to have significant volatilities. But nothing major there. No changes in those accounting effects. As you well put it, a little bit of it has been, to some extent, being absorbed by the business and by the natural good performance of the business. So nothing striking there. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our last question. Last question today is from Naish Cui from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on the full year refining margin guidance around $25 per barrel. If my math is right, the new guidance implies more than $30 per barrel margin for Q4. I wonder if you could share some of the assumption there, please, just for Q4, including some shipping cost levels. Thank you. My second question is on Brazil. Given your significant Brazil exposure, I wonder, has anything changed in how you assess the physical and the regulatory risk when allocating the incremental capital to Brazil versus other part of the portfolio? Thank you.
Thank you, Naish. Not much to be said in terms of full year refining margin. It has been a bumpy ride, but now what we're fundamentally looking is at forwards. We do see some rebounds and, as you well put it's been a year with quite some fluctuations. But we see that within the performance that we've been achieving so far. We should have comfortable numbers throughout the end of the year as the third quarter has demonstrated. On Brazil, we've been in Brazil long-term, right? We've been in Brazil throughout many different stages in their political panorama. We don't comment on any political or elective results. We continue to have open dialogues with all the relevant authorities, both within the industry context and with our partners.
We believe that Brazil is very much aware of the fact that continued investment will be critical to develop its resources. So open dialogue on the impacts of fiscal stability and clear rules towards management of international investment are, of course, differential, and we seek those out. But in any case, we have been through many different stages in Brazil. We see ourselves as being in Brazil for the long term. We have positive relationships, and have always been able to engage in productive dialogue. So we will continue to do so and are confident that it will continue to be a powerful growth engine for us. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.