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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 21, 2022

Maria João Carrapato
Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, NOS SGPS

Hi, good morning. Welcome to our second quarter 2022 results conference call. Apologies for the delay. It seems there's a technical issue with the webcast stream, so those on the webcast apparently can't hear what I'm saying at the moment. If anybody's following both streams, then obviously it's preferable to dial into the conference call. As usual, we have the full executive committee in the room today. José Pedro Pereira da Costa, the CFO, will give you a brief summary of the results, and then we'll jump straight into Q&A. Thank you.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Okay. Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. I'll go through each slide, and I'll mention the number of the slides so that you can follow the presentation more properly. Starting with the highlights of the presentation in slide two. Again, this quarter, we continue to go through a very strong operational momentum. We have posted around 130,000 RGU net adds. Again, main driver of growth being mobile, taking advantage of the 5G opportunity. The recovery in the cinema units towards 2019 numbers continues at good pace, with cinema attendance reaching post-pandemic record levels, benefiting from the normalization of restrictions and also a strong blockbuster movie slate.

The strong operational performance in telco and the recovery in the cinema unit translated into strong financial results in the quarter with consolidated revenue growth of 8.1%, with the telco unit growing almost 6%. The growth in top line has allowed a 5.4% growth in EBITDA at the group level above last quarter's numbers, the telco unit posting a 4.3% growth. Total CapEx reached around EUR 130 million in the quarter, a lower level than last quarter. As explained before, there was some front-loading of 5G-related CapEx in the first quarter.

Finally, we have materialized in this quarter our objective of remunerating shareholders in an attractive way with a dividend payment of EUR 0.278 per share while preserving a solid balance sheet with 2.15x net financial debt to EBITDA-AL. Now moving to the operational review on slide four. We have posted around, as I said, 130,000 RGU net adds, growing well across all services, again, mobile being the strongest growth driver, but also fixed performing quite positively. On slide five, very strong growth pace on mobile. We have posted a positive 106,000 mobile net add number with 85,000 postpaid net adds and 20,000 net adds in prepaid. Convergence continues to be the engine of mobile growth.

On the fixed area, on fixed broadband, we have posted net adds of 9,000, also quite positive fixed Pay TV, net adds of 10,000, taking advantage of increased uptake of services in greenfield FTTH areas. On slide six, following up on convergence, we have ended this quarter with 1,052,000 convergent and integrated customers, representing now 66% of the fixed base, having added around 16,000 subs in the quarter, same level of last few quarters. On slide seven, in this last quarter, we continued the recovery in our cinema units towards pre-pandemic levels, with June being the best month ever since the pandemic relative to 2017 numbers, with attendance being down only 14% versus June 2019 and total revenues being down only 7% versus 2019.

There has been an increasingly better performance month after month. In April, we were down 42% below April 2019. In May, much better, 25% below 2019, and leading to June, only 14% versus June 2019. To these numbers, we have the contribution of a now completely normalized situation with zero restrictions and also a very strong set of blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and Jurassic World, which have attracted the usual cinema customers to return to the big screen. The movie lineup for the second half of the year is quite promising with a lot of very popular movies. Still, we will have a very tough comp in the third quarter since July and August 2019 had the best performing movie ever in Portugal in terms of gross box office revenues. Moving to slide nine.

On the B2C segment, we have continued to launch differentiated offers focused on providing our customers with the best services. This quarter, we would like to highlight that we were the first operator to offer Disney+ in the TV set-top box, this service being available for our UMA TV customers. Also, we have launched a new prepaid mobile SIM card with 10 Gb and multiple benefits for tourists that visit Portugal. Finally, taking advantage of our music festivals, NOS Primavera Sound and NOS Alive, we have leveraged on these events to provide exclusive benefits for our customers, in particular in the youth segment. On slide 10, regarding 5G, we have a strategic goal to be the 5G leader in the market, and with that goal in mind, we continue to launch a number of initiatives.

We have implemented in Barreiro, the first 5G city with a pioneer 5G urban mobility monitoring solution, including intelligent waste management, targeting cost and carbon emission reductions. We have implemented a partnership in Madeira for the first 5G hospital to provide remote support solutions using HD video connections supported by 5G. We have sponsored the 5G Industry Conference to highlight the importance of 5G as enabler of Industry 4.0. Finally, we also launched our 5G hub in Lisbon, an innovative center that will be a collaborative lab for our partners to develop 5G use cases supported by the first core 5G private standalone network. On the B2B front, on slide 11, we continue to position NOS as the core partner for digital transformation, in particular, leveraging on 5G capabilities.

This quarter, we would like to highlight our role in the Cybersecurity Alliance, launched by the National Cybersecurity Centre , as a cooperation platform to aggregate and enhance best practices. We have joined Health Cluster Portugal as a technology and innovation specialist. We joined the European project 5G-MOBIX as a technology partner, driving forward connected and automated mobility. On slide 12, following up on our accelerated 5G rollout, we are proud to announce that we were awarded with the first 5G award in Portugal by Ookla, being recognized as the fastest 5G network, ranking much better than our competitors in the speed test conducted, both download and upload average speed score of 305 Mbps.

Also on that front of recognitions on slide 13, we were recognized by the Portuguese Consumer Association, DECO PROTESTE, as having the best 4G mobile internet network in Portugal, ranking download and upload speeds, quality of customer experience in internet browsing and content streaming. Now, moving to our technological projects, on slide 15, on the fixed network front, our FTTH rollout continues, reaching a total of 2.9 million homes passed. That is around 56% of total coverage, a bit over 100,000 FTTH homes passed, added in the quarter.

Now moving to the financial review on page 17, we have had, again, very strong group revenue growth of 8.1%, benefiting from a solid 5.6% growth in the telco unit on the back of strong operational activity, and also from the recovery in cinema and audiovisuals. Roaming revenues had some recovery in the quarter, but still some room to fully go back to pre-pandemic levels. We were down 27% versus the level of roaming revenues in the second quarter of 2019. Still better than the last few quarters. We had in the first quarter last year, - 34%. First quarter this year, -2 9%. Adjusting for the growth in roaming, telco revenues would have still grown 4.6%. That is still very strong core telco revenue growth.

All the segments contributed positively for telco growth, consumer growing 2.4%, slightly higher year-on-year growth versus the 2% and 1.8% of the last two quarters, showing a positive sequential trend and B2B growing 8.2% this quarter. This B2B segment benefiting only marginally from software resale and equipment resale. This 8.2% growth this quarter is a strong growth also in line with last quarter's numbers if adjusted for these resale revenues. The wholesale all segments within B2B from large corporates to SMEs contributed well to this performance. Finally, the wholesale strong performance benefited essentially from the roaming income recovery. On slide 18, consolidated EBITDA in the quarter grew by 5.4%, benefiting from strong telco EBITDA growth of 4.3%.

That is in line with the last quarter growth. Benefiting from operating leverage and also helped by some efficiency improvements, namely at the customer service level, which compensated the relevant increase in energy costs despite the energy saving measures that were put in place. Group EBITDA growth was also supported by strong EBITDA recovery of the cinema and audiovisual business following the recovery that is taking place. On slide 19, net income in the quarter was EUR 44 million, driven by the strong performance at the EBITDA level, also benefiting from a positive impact from our share in JV results due to the continued appreciation of the Angolan currency compensating the higher level of depreciation and negative impact of taxes due to lower level of tax incentives booked in the quarter.

On slide 20, total group CapEx in the quarter, ex leasings, reached EUR 113 million, a year-on-year increase of around EUR 8 million versus last year. A strong reduction of almost EUR 20 million quarter-on-quarter. Again, as expected, a strong increase in technical telco CapEx to around EUR 73 million in the quarter, reflecting continued FTTH and 5G rollout, being compensated by a slight decrease in customer CapEx reaching EUR 35 million, a relatively stable number in the last few quarters, around EUR 35 million-EUR 36 million per quarter, supported by the current low levels of churn, higher levels of self-installation, and also benefiting from equipment refurbishment from the re-injection. On slide 21, EBITDA minus CapEx reached EUR 50 million, same level as last year, with increase in EBITDA fully compensating the increase in CapEx.

Free cash flow after interest and taxes generated in the quarter reached EUR 31 million, again, slightly same level of last year despite the increase in CapEx. On the capital structure on slide 22, net financial debt in the quarter increased to EUR 1,145 million, following the dividend payment of EUR 142 million in May. Net financial debt number representing now 2.15x the EBITDA level, adjusted for lease payments, slightly above our stated target. We expect this level to go down to below 2x at year-end, following the free cash flow generation of last two quarters, as well as the cashing of EUR 155 million, resulting from the sale of a second portfolio of 350 towers to Cellnex, which has already been approved by the regulator.

Average cost of debt was kept in the quarter as at 1.2%. Cash and the new credit lines reached around EUR 250 million at the end of the quarter, providing us a very nice liquidity position. With this slide, we conclude the presentation. Operator, you can now start the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, you need to slowly press star and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Once again, please slowly press star and one on your keypad to ask a question. We'll now take our first question. Please stand by. First question is from the line of Terence Tsui from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Terence Tsui
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, thanks very much for the presentation, and good afternoon, everyone. I had a question just generally around your CapEx and investments. Just more generally, like from an investor standpoint, how should we be judging the returns on your investments from all the high levels of CapEx that you are currently making? Are you expecting to see higher ARPU in the future or more customer growth, or a combination of the both? Secondly, can you just remind us around your projections for CapEx, just both this year and for future years, how you expect it to trend over time? That would be great. Thank you very much.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Okay. Thank you, Terence. Well, I'll start tackling the last question to try to be a little bit more precise in guiding current levels of CapEx, given that we now have fully aligned numbers for 2022 in terms of our own projections and consensus. We have now a relevant discrepancy starting in 2023. In terms of general story, as you know, as we have been telling you recently, we have had our peak years in 2021 and 2022. 2021 really the strongest peak year, if we are to include the non-recurrent CapEx related to 5G. Also in 2022, we started at very strong pace with 5G deployment. And also we are having our final year of our FTTH sharing agreement.

For this year we remain with the guidance that we have already provided. For full year 2022, we should be targeting high EUR 400 million numbers. If you look at the first couple of quarters, if you add them, we have a slightly higher number for the first quarter, a slightly lower number for the second quarter. If you take the full semester, you can project relatively easily the full year number for 2022. Then after that, we should be pretty much done in terms of having the bulk of the investment relating to 5G. By that also, we should be finishing our FTTH agreement with our partner.

The idea is that we should see in 2023, CapEx coming down very significantly to the normalized levels we have before this peak years, 2021 and 2022. We should be targeting normalized levels of around EUR 370 million-EUR 390 million. That is very different from what we see from a number of analysts that cover us. Starting from 2025, 2026, we should still be able to go below those levels. That's the way that we see CapEx deploying over the next few years. Again, this is the peak of our investment cycle.

Relating to your first question in terms of return of capital employed, basically we are deploying CapEx much faster than our peers in other European markets and also than our peers even in the Portuguese market. You have to adjust for this peak in CapEx. If you adjust for this, we should see a relatively healthy return on capital employed after this period. Of course, we target that this CapEx will generate more subscribers, more services and more revenues in the future.

Terence Tsui
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question. Please stand by. The next question is from the line of Pilar Vico from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Pilar Vico
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two on my side. The first one is around the acquisition of 3 million own shares this quarter. Could you please help us to understand the rationale behind it and the plan going forward? The second one would be around if you could just actually please elaborate a bit more around what is behind the Q2 growth, given Portugal is not an inflation-linking country, and how is the competitive landscape looking ahead of the commercial launch of the new entrants? Thank you.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Okay. Thank you for your question. In terms of the 3 million shares, what they are under the remuneration conditions for our company. They basically are the shares that we need in order to fulfill the needs of our share remuneration plan for the employees of the company. This is more or less this level per year. This represents a cost that is reflected in the P&L through wages and salaries. In terms of our second quarter growth, basically as we said, this is a function of very strong operational growth. We are growing a lot in terms of services. We are growing in terms of subscribers. We are also growing in terms of ARPU.

On the B2B front, this is also a major area of growth. 8% growth on B2B and in this case, without the help of any more volatile resale projects. This is healthy growth that reflects the overall growth of the business in the Portuguese context.

Pilar Vico
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. Regarding the competitive landscape ahead of the commercial launch of the new entrants?

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Well, what we have been witnessing is relatively stable, competitive landscape. We are facing the same set of competitors for three years now, and it was the date when MásMóvil came to the Portuguese market. No news there and still no new entrant from as a result of the spectrum auction. I would say that the market keeps being very competitive, but stable within that competitiveness. We have been gaining market share in mobile, we have been gaining market share in B2B, and that is basically what drives the growth.

Pilar Vico
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question. Please stand by. Next question is from the line of Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Roshan Ranjit
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi. Afternoon, everyone. Thank you for the questions. Two from me, please. On B2B, you just mentioned the strong performance this quarter, which I think the recurring type of business really stands out this quarter. As you mentioned, the kind of lumpy low margin sales have slowed or I'm not sure, stopped. Have over the last few quarters, you've had a strong track record of delivering on those lumpy revenue streams. Has that been the foundation for this kind of recurring B2B trend? Question is, I guess, can we expect that recurring business to continue, or are we seeing a slight change in the kind of B2B environment in the market? That would be my first question, please.

Secondly, just on the pricing point, you mentioned the 5G plans, and I think, you know, that drove the good ARPU growth that we've seen. Looking at the year-on-year growth over the last few quarters, it's been fairly consistent. Does that suggest that there have been minimal price adjustments to date? Should we expect any price adjustments in the quarters ahead? If so, you know, what should we be thinking around the timing around that, please? Thank you.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Thank you for your question. Regarding B2B, what we see is, well, three things. One is, there is an underlying structural, very good, solid growth on all segments. Especially based on the growth of the share of non-telco or IT products, that we've been selling with, considerable success throughout the market. Of course, we expect that trend to continue. Our main bets have been, cloud services and 5G-based innovation, and those will still remain our bets for growth in the next few years. Since, if anything, we're strengthening those bets rather than slowing down.

The underlying result is that effectively the growth without the retail business is still very structurally strong and very close to the 8% number that we posted in total.

Nevertheless, believe that these resale businesses are a great opportunity for us to enlarge our perimeter of relationship and the scope of services within customers. Thus we can expect that we will continue to push that business in order to leverage our structural growth, which we have so far.

In terms of price adjustments, we haven't adjusted prices, unitary prices for the last few months, and we have no plans of doing it over the next couple of quarters. Of course, we are all familiar with the context, the inflation that we are facing across the economy, and as such, we keep the option to adjust prices maybe next year, but there are no plans to do it during 2022.

Roshan Ranjit
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

That's clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question. Please stand by. Our question is from the line of Martin Hammerschmidt from Citi. Please go ahead.

Martin Hammerschmidt
VP, Equity Research, Citi

Yeah. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a question regarding the EBITDA within the telecom business. I mean, you've been growing EBITDA over 4% in the first half, and I think if you look at the consensus figure for the full year, it implies sort of a market slowdown. Now, you obviously face tougher comps, but if you could sort of help us understand what are the building blocks in the second half to why that growth of the 4% should slow down quite materially. That would help me. Thank you.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Thank you, Martin. Your question implies that you're basically commenting on the consensus numbers and asking us to explain why this will slow. I think the best question is if we are comfortable or not with the consensus and if we are able eventually to beat the consensus at this stage. What we can tell is that the trends that we are seeing in the first couple of quarters are not very different from what we are seeing for the third and for the fourth quarter. We know that there are some cost items that will eventually have a more negative impact in the second part of the year, but still, we are very comfortable with the consensus numbers.

If I can give you one example in terms of, for instance, energy costs. As you know, we have now more or less 30% of total consumption, which is on the spot market. On the second part of this year, on the last two quarters, we will have more percentage of our consumption on the spot market. This means that we'll probably have higher energy costs. Also, on some other cost items that we're feeling some type of inflation, probably the second half of the year is going to be tougher than the first part of the year. Still, we are very comfortable with the consensus numbers. That's how we see it.

Martin Hammerschmidt
VP, Equity Research, Citi

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question. Please stand by. The question is from the line of Jerry Dellis from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Jerry Dellis
Managing Director and Senior Telecommunications Analyst, Jefferies

Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Two questions, please. The first one is, I wonder whether you could explain to us the role of churn in the strong RGU numbers that you reported yesterday evening. Essentially to understand whether the strong RGU growth is coming from better gross intake or better customer loyalty. And then the second question is, I can see that, you know, Portuguese telecom operators, including yourselves, have been appealing for some clemency in relation to 5G network coverage obligations for the end of 2023. Is this still something that is a requirement on your side? And what level of dialogue are you managing to have with the authorities on this? Thank you.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Well, maybe I'll start with the second question, by saying that there is no dialogue whatsoever with the regulator that refuses to listen to us. It has been like that for quite some time now, so this is not new. We believe that since the obligations were defined, there was a massive delay in the conclusion of the auction. Consequently, there was a massive delay in the allocation of licenses and the starting of the operation, and as such, the obligations should move accordingly. Basically, one year things should be one year later than originally planned. Still, we are not, we still sleep at night with these obligations.

We feel comfortable as we have been explaining, we are well ahead in 5G deployment. Comparatively with probably the other operators in our market, we are much more comfortable than they are. Actually, they have been much more vocal around this issue than we have, but still, it would be only natural that these obligations should be postponed. In terms of RGU evolution and the role of churn, I can confirm that most of the improvement is coming from lower levels of churn. We are running at historically low levels of churn, which from an economic point of view is obviously, as you understand, much better than by increasing growth rates for the same net result.

Most of the good performance in terms of RGUs additions is coming from lower levels of churn, yes.

Jerry Dellis
Managing Director and Senior Telecommunications Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you. That's very clear.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take the next question. Please stand by. Question is from a line of António Seladas from AS Independent Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

António Seladas
Founder and Analyst, AS Independent Research

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation. Well, my question was already answered at least partially, and it's related with your cost structure. I think that not just cost structure will increase over the second half, but also into 2023 with the salaries and wages. So probably we can talk about 4% or 5% increase in salaries that civil servants. You already mentioned in the past that your salaries will follow the civil servant increase. I don't know if you want to explain more or to add more information about your prices for 2023. I know that you already answered saying that could be a possibility. Nevertheless, I don't know if you want to add more or just.

José Pedro Pereira da Costa
CFO, NOS SGPS

Well, it's still a little bit early to add more than what I said. As I think you are aware from a contractual point of view, it's within the contract, the ability for us to adjust according to inflation. So that's an option we always have, and I think it's fair to expect some kind of adjustment given the high level of inflation in this country. It's still too early. That is something that is not in our plans for, as I mentioned, for the next few months. That is something we probably will be discussing in the first conference call of next year.

António Seladas
Founder and Analyst, AS Independent Research

Okay. Thank you very much. Fair enough.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, so I'll hand back to the speakers.

Maria João Carrapato
Head of Investor Relations and Sustainability, NOS SGPS

Okay. Thank you very much for being with us today. Apologies for the technical difficulties at the beginning, but I think they were sorted out into the call. Have a great holiday, if that's the case, and look forward to speaking to you next summer.

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