Good morning all. Thank you all for your time and availability this morning, to join us for the REN first quarter results presentation. As per usual, we have our executive committee with us today, Rodrigo Costa, our CEO, Gonçalo Morais Soares, our CFO, and João Conceição, our COO. Rodrigo will start with his opening remarks, and then João and Gonçalo will guide you through the main operational and financial highlights of the quarter, which will then be followed by the Q&A session where we'll be taking your questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Madalena. Good morning, all. As you know, yesterday we had our general shareholders' meeting here in Lisbon, and all went as expected. Most items approved by 99.99%, and only one with 97%, which I think was a good score. We have the same board in place and ready for a new term. Next Monday we have our capital markets day, and, with that in perspective, we will have to hold ourselves another three days before sharing our plans and metrics as we have been doing since 2015. Gonçalo, as Madalena said, we will go through the presentation on the past quarter results, and I'm sure that we will answer some of the questions you may have. I'm sure the CESE is among the topics you want to cover, and I'm sure we will do that following the presentation.
With that, let's move to the presentation.
Thank you. Thank you, Rodrigo. So let's start with slide number 4, and with the main highlights of the quarter. As you know, this is a slightly special quarter because we provisioned the full amount of the levy, and so typically, net income is lower. And so smaller, I'd say, changes make this vary a little bit more. But I'd say that this was in line with expectations and with the consensus in the market. So we have EBITDA coming down a little bit, mainly driven by smaller returns in assets and a smaller contribution also from the international side. On the net profit, there is a bigger drop, and this is mainly driven by the increase in cost of debt versus the last quarter. But there's also a small impact in terms of exchange rates that on a quarter-on-quarter comparison actually makes this push a little bit the decrease.
In terms of net debt coming down, tariff deviations are also coming down as expected, and the average cost of debt, as I was referring to, increased to around 2.8%. In terms of CAPEX, it's a little bit too early, but we'll go into a little bit of news around this, but it's too early for us to have any meaningful comment. With this, let me pass to João who'll comment a little bit on the operating side, and then I'll come back. João?
Thanks, Gonçalo. Good morning to you all. From the operational side, I would say that the most important issue to highlight is the fact that this quarter was a quite wet quarter in Portugal. And as a consequence, hydro generation had a sharp increase, which reflected on the important increase in terms of renewable shares within the electricity system, reaching almost 90% of all the electricity consumed in Portugal being generated by renewable sources. This also had an important effect that changed a little bit the status. The Portuguese system is normally a net importer from Spain, but in this particular quarter, we became a slight exporter with approximately 0.1 terawatt-hour of net exports in terms of electricity. In terms of consumption, slight increase versus last year, about 1.2%.
Our forecast for the full year is a little bit above that, around 2-2.4% in terms of electricity consumption evolution. On the natural gas side, as a consequence of these very high levels of renewables, the usage of gas to generate electricity decreased, and as a consequence, natural gas consumption also decreased by 10%. Quality of service, I would say that everything normally we know we keep the high levels of the indicators, especially the ones that the regulator used for our efficiency incentives. You will see a slight increase on the losses on the transmission system, but that's normal because we are using a more distributed generation portfolio with these renewables, so that's perfectly normal. In terms of ESG, we get an improvement on 2 ratings: CDP Climate Change and Sustainalytics ESG risk rating.
We get an increase on the scores. And last but not least, in terms of the big projects, the most important information is the fact that it was confirmed by EU our expectations on considering two major interconnections within the PCI list, for these special projects in EU, those projects being the new electricity interconnection between Minho and Galiza, north of Portugal, and Galiza in Spain, and the big interconnection for the future use of hydrogen connecting Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany. In slide 7, you have the more detailed figures, but basically these are the ones that I've already mentioned, so I would pass the floor to Gonçalo again.
Okay, João. Thank you very much. We can move to slide number 8, which is just the summary of the financial highlights. So you have this 2.3% drop in terms of EBITDA, an increase in financial results, and a larger drop in net profit of around 70%. As I said, CAPEX and RAV is a little bit early on, and net debt is what I commented, so it is coming down, versus last year it increased because of tariff deviations, versus end of the year it is actually coming down, not only because of normal cash flow but of small decrease already in terms of tariff deviation. Slide number 9, you have a detail of the evolution of EBITDA. So as I said, the main component is the assets and OPEX remuneration that is coming down here. This is driven mainly by two things.
One is rates on the gas assets that, due to the regulation, the new regulatory period, are lower, okay? Secondly was something that we already had mentioned before, which is connected to the allowed cost of electricity. As I said last year, we have a higher margin than normal that compensated the negative margin in 2022. So we have a higher recognized cost and already a cost that has come down. This year, that recognized cost by ERSE came down, and so we have less EBITDA on that front on the terminal. So that is why on a year-on-year trend this is coming down. The other revenues, it is mostly OPEX that even more CAPEX are going up and a little bit more of services that we charge other operators to connect to the grid, but it's mainly the issue of OPEX.
In terms of EBITDA per segment, what the main things that you see is electricity going up and gas transmission coming down a little bit on the quarter. The rest, more or less, stays, okay? In terms of slide number 10, you see the evolution overall with what I had just mentioned. So you see that everything comes down, but electricity comes down very marginally, but gas does come down a little bit more, namely transportation. As you know, gas distribution, the reduction is compensated by the fact that the spread between transportation and distribution increased a little bit, but those are the ones that are putting a little bit more on, pressure here on a year-on-year basis. In terms of CAPEX, as I said, it's a little bit early to comment on anything.
So we are now in the process of starting the year, but we do want to say that although we manage this risk on a continuous basis with a lot of effort from the operational teams, we do feel some pressure on the licensing, so it continues to be an issue. João and his teams deal with this every day, every hour of the day, but sometimes things move a little bit faster. Sometimes they move a little bit slower, but it's, I'd say, it's what has been going on for some time now, but we are still confident that we will have a strong investment here. In terms of RAV returns on slide number 12, it's the picture that I printed before.
So what you basically see is a decrease, given the rates on both gas transportation and distribution, and a bigger decrease also on transportation given that the asset base also came down. So that's basically the story on the asset part. Slide 13, in terms of OPEX, again, it's a little bit early also, but I'd say that the trend of what you are seeing is, in this quarter is an increase in personnel. That is something that has been going on last year also. We are increasing personnel given higher activity, on the operational side, on the investment side. So this is something that you will see this year. And so I'd say nothing out of the ordinary here.
Electricity costs are slightly better than we have anticipated, of course, as I said before, on a margin perspective, it comes down versus last year, but on a cost basis, it's actually better than what we have put in our own budgets because costs are coming down a little bit more, as João was referring, and he also mentioned costs in the electricity side are coming down. So we are on a year-on-year, on the cost side, benefiting a little bit from this, but it's, I'd say, a little bit early also to comment on anything particular here. LNG side, so contributing a little bit less. Transemel is growing because the asset base is growing. We have some delays, projects that should be concluding on the next quarter, but so I'd say that it's the normal trend.
Electrogas decreased a little bit, because tariffs, which are dependent upon exchange rates and inflation, corrected slightly. They had been going up previously. There was a little bit less volume also, so it came down a little bit, but bear in mind that we came from two record years in terms of Electrogas, so I'd say that the results are still pretty good. We do expect full year that Electrogas comes down a little bit versus last year. Okay. In terms of below EBITDA, so amortization, nothing in particular to mention. Cost of debt, this is the trend that we have been seeing, although we have an average cost of debt which is below EURIBOR arrivals this, which is an unusual thing. We are not the only case, but it is an unusual thing. It is growing versus last year.
This is normal, so we were expecting this to go up to this year to close to 3%, which is a number that we actually think this is where the cost of debt is going to stabilize. As I was mentioning, the exchange rate differences versus last year were a little bit higher. These are things that go up and down a little bit. They are not material on a full year basis, and that's why we do not cover them or hedge them explicitly because the cost does not compensate these variations. So in 2020, it was positive, 2021 negative, 2022 positive, 2023 negative. For instance, the first quarter of last year was positive EUR 1.1 million, this quarter negative EUR 1.9 million. That's why it is EUR 3 million.
For you to have an idea, if we didn't have any exchange rate differences, instead of dropping 70%, then I think it would drop 50%. So there would be still a drop, which is, I'd say, what was expected given the revision of gas and the increase of cost of debt, but this is the only thing that was a little bit unexpected. So, but I mean, next quarter, this may be slightly different, so, that is something else. In terms of taxes, as Rodrigo said, we have some news on OLEP. We'll probably go over them on the Q&A just to say that we have a positive decision for the first time, but we are analyzing it, checking it.
It's a little bit too early to reach any very determined conclusion, but I'm sure that Rodrigo will go into a little bit more on the Q&A also, and you'll have some questions. So on the net profit, I'd say these are the main changes. So coming from EBITDA and financial results, it's -EUR 70. As I said, and I explained, part of this is given this, I'd say, abnormal or non-recurrent exchange rate that goes up and down. It would be -EUR 50. It's still, as I said, a very particular quarter with lower net income, so small differences make a big impact, but I'd say that this is in line with consensus and with our own expectations. In terms of debt, so it is coming down. Even without tariff deviations, it came down 2%, around EUR 60 million.
Tariff deviations also came down a little bit, namely, on the trading side. As you know, REN Trading contract ended, already, so this is something that although the unit is still there for safety of system purposes, it no longer has the same modality, so we do no longer have the same exposure in terms of financial. So we should expect not to have these swings in tariff deviations, these large swings that we had in the past because these will go away as REN Trading also goes away, okay? Maturity is around 4.6%, so I'd say stable given the issues of the bond, and cost of debt, as I said, is around 2.2%. In terms of ESG, I will not go over all of this. João already mentioned some.
We continue to see a positive evolution, in terms of, Scope 1 and 2. So you see this decrease of 22% quarter-on-quarter versus last year, so this is something that will continue. And you will see that given this good performance in ESG, we will be addressing and, and perhaps even, increasing our addition in terms of, of targets in the upcoming, Capital Markets Day that we'll have, okay? On slide, I'll, I'll go through slide 20 with some initiatives, but slide 21, you see the summary of, of the of our ratings. They have been improving, and they have been revised recently, so I think that we have been doing a, a very good job on, on this front, and we'll continue to invest and maintain this as a priority.
So as closing remarks, I'd say EBITDA coming down a little bit and in line with expectations and consensus. Net profit's also coming down a little bit more because of that exchange rate abnormality, but I'd say also within the consensus. Net debt trending down as expected. And as Rodrigo said, we had the AGM. The dividend was approved, so we will be paying it in the coming months as usual in the normal timing that we use. Okay, so thank you very much for listening, and we will wait for your questions. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. We will now take the first question. One moment, please. It's coming from the line of Enrico Bartoli from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, as you anticipated, a question on the evolution of the special tax. We had this new law recently about the unconstitutionality of the application to renewables, so then we had several pronunciations by the court last year. I was wondering if you can update us on, let's say, what is the, let's say, the mood, in terms of a possible cancellation or definitely the declaration of unconstitutionality of the law. Second question is regarding the cost of debt. If you can remind us the portion which is a variable rate, and, I think that you mentioned that you expect a 3% average cost for the full year, or is this the evolution and what you expect at the end of the year?
The last one is on some details about the OPEX revenues, what you expect in terms of trend of the next quarter. We had this reduction in the first one. If you think that this can be continuing over the next quarters. Thank you.
Enrico? Regarding CESE, I think, you know, most of the information is public. You know, we, as Gonçalo said, we had for the first time, you know, a positive outcome coming from the constitutional court, and that's very important. It's not just regarding the renewables. It's also regarding gas distribution, and that's very important. We had more than 20 different communications coming from the court in the past couple of weeks. We are trying to, you know, go through every item with our legal department, with our external lawyers. It's, as we all know, these processes are very complex. It's a big win, but it's not over.
You know, it's, I think we will have to first try to understand very well what are really the decisions, and then I think we will be able to communicate a little bit better what we are planning to do if we are going to change some of our strategies. This is not clear yet. And then, of course, the last word is always from the courts, and, you know, and one victory doesn't mean we will win all of them in the future, but no doubt this is very, very positive, and I think it will have impact on the, you know, future of sales.
On your comments on the rates, and so we have around 75% of fixed rate now, okay? The 3% that I was referring to is a full year number, so and we are seeing the average cost of debt trending toward that and stabilizing around that number, okay? A little bit below, but around that number of 3%. In terms of the revenues, you asked, so the main issue here is that one relating to electricity costs in the terminal, as I had already kind of anticipated last year, and that would explain, I'd say, an abnormally high EBITDA last year and a decrease this year because we are normalizing.
So last year we had a very high allowed cost for electricity, but the electricity cost has already came down, so we have a high impact in EBITDA and a low real cost versus which was the reverse of 2022 where we had a very high cost in OPEX and a low allowed revenue from the regulator. This time around, these things converge, okay? So you have the allowed return from the allowed revenues from the regulator come down a lot. What we are actually seeing is that we were expecting the margin to kind of be neutral, but given recent price evolutions, we are actually seeing a slightly positive margin there because prices of electricity are improving. But on the year-on-year margin, you'll see this decrease, okay?
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question. One moment, please. The next question comes to the line of Fernando Garcia from RBC. Please go ahead.
Can you hear me?
Yes, yes, yes.
Yes, please go ahead.
Yes, I hear you. Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions, no? So, coming back to the extraordinary tax, no? So I was reading some of these constitutional courts rulings, no? Not only the renewable ones, but as well in gas distribution, as you mentioned, no? But I mean, reading it, it looks like all the rationale that it was used, it can be used as well to almost any activity and obviously to REN. So I mean, I wanted to know what is your view there on the rationale and as well if you think that that could apply to your activities. So are you appealing based on that grounds, your tax that you have paid and you are going to pay? And what could be the timing of your appeals, you know, based on the same grounds that they were declared constitutional?
If successful, you think that you can recover. Probably this is a little bit premature, but still, I wanted to know your opinion. But can you recover all the amounts that you have paid since 2008-2018, sorry? And then, have you paid 2024? Then, well, this was on the extraordinary tax, okay? Then on the rate of return, I mean, we have a new regulatory period in electricity starting in 2026. I know that Portugal has a very transparent and predictable system that was, you know, an old system that it was working, etc., but the thing is that at the moment, we are looking to the return that Portugal is paying for its regulated assets is lower to other European countries. And for example, it has a very limited inflation recognition, no? So there, what is your view?
What actions are you taking to have an improvement in the remuneration of electricity distribution? Thank you.
Okay. Well, regarding your questions about sales, as you can understand, I cannot discuss with you our legal strategy, right? Because some of the questions that you asked, they are very, very good, but this is something we, you know, cannot really, you know, open up because it's part of our legal work. You know, this is the type of questions and discussions we have with our lawyers that are doing, you know, our multiple appeals. We are doing all these multiple appeals. Something I can tell you, and I'm sure since you read the documents, you know, some of the cases, they basically we cannot do anything anymore because they have been closed. Some others, not. And it's very complex because you have multiple companies. Even ourselves, we have multiple companies.
We have basically 4 cases per year since 2014, since the beginning. The decisions that you saw last week, they are about 2019. Then, I think, you know, I have to ask you to be, you know, patient, because, you know, we are still in the process of reading everything, evaluating our options, and honestly discussing with the lawyers what is the best strategy to keep going. In you know, in the first, let's say, in the first years, and we were very open about that, we decided to pay and fight. This is what we've been doing since the very, very beginning. Is this going to change somehow? For one thing for sure, we are not giving up of anything we believe we have the right to recover. That's for sure.
You know, paying doesn't mean we will not be—if the court decides that way—that we will not be reimbursed from what we paid and even from the, the also the interest of what we paid. And, I think it was we still believe that was the best strategy. And, I think we have very good lawyers working with us, and, you know, as soon as possible, we will open up a little bit more on the strategy. Okay. So on your question about the ROR, I will ask you to be a little bit patient and wait for Monday. We'll give you a little bit more color. We share your view that, of course, we should be paid a fair return.
Wait for Monday, and we'll go a little bit more into this and what our expectations are, and we'll be able to answer all of your questions then, okay? Thank you, Fernando.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Ignacio Domenech from JB Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just two from my side. The first one is, clarification on the special energy tax. I just want to know if, if, if you include the CESE in, in your current business plan, no? Some of your peers recently are not including these tax, no? And the second question is also a clarification on the CAPEX from the direct agreements with solar developers. I was wondering if there's any CAPEX that has been already committed, either this year or in the past year, if and if you could walk us through the main implications, no? That this has. I do appreciate you will give us more details, no? In the capital market sales, but just wanted to get a clarification. Thank you.
So, the CESE in the current business plan, not the one that we are presenting on Monday, but in the current business plan, we do have the CESE. It's there. And as you know, we are typically very conservative, so wait for Monday, but I don't think you should expect any news because we are conservative. This is very fresh news, and we do not tend to react to things from one minute to the other. So, I think you understand from what I'm saying what you should expect. On the CAPEX also, please wait for Monday, but we will give you a lot of detail on how this, namely to the analysts, on how these solar agreements are going to be impacting the account. They have had almost no impact up until now.
They will start to have a little bit of impact this year. And we just concluded this recently with the auditors, how we would be co-accounting exactly what we would account until the end of the projects, what we would delay and recognize along the life of the assets. So there are some specificities. If you bear with us, we will give you all of those details then on Monday, and Madalena will guide you through each one exactly because this has a little bit of detail, and it's important for the analyst community to understand exactly how this is accounted for, okay? Thank you.
Understood. And, just a follow-up, if I may, on Fernando's question, when do you expect a draft from the regulator on the next regulatory period for electricity transmission? Is this something earlier? Will this take place earlier next year, or what's the closest date we might have a draft?
So it's only next year. I know that the Spanish ones will probably have some news already at the end of this year, but in our case, the process only starts next year. And so you will only start to have a feeling of this, around a little bit in the second quarter, and then you have a final a little bit more visibility in the third quarter and the final one at the end of the year. But you have to wait until the second quarter to have a little bit more visibility. João and his team will start to engage with them, end of this year, starting of next year. So this is the normal process, okay? It will be slightly later relative, I think, to the Spanish process, okay?
Mm-hmm. Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Enrico Bartoli from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Sorry, a quick follow-up. If you can, comment a bit on the evolution of the tariff deviations. At the end of this quarter, they were more or less in line with end 2023. You mentioned that the contract has expired. So what we reasonably could expect in terms of evolution over the next quarters and by the end of the year? Thank you.
I think that most of that tariff deviation of REN Trading will be solved between this and next year. So it's not everything this year. So a good part of this will be solved this year, and the rest next year. I don't know if it's half and half, but you can make that estimation. But you'll clearly feel a material decrease already in the tariff deviations relating to REN Trading this year and part of it next year. So by the end of next year, we should not have anything in the accounts, and any tariff deviations relating to REN Trading, okay?
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand conference back over to Madalena Garrido for closing remarks.
Thank you very much for all your questions. We remain available to answer anything else you need offline, and we hope to see you all on Monday for the capital markets day. Thank you very much.