Good morning, everyone. I'm Cécile Combeau, Head of Investor Relations of Groupe ADP, and it is my pleasure to welcome you to our full year results conference call. I'm here with our Chairman and CEO, Augustin de Romanet, Deputy CEO, Edward Arkwright, and CFO, Philippe Pascal. After the presentation of our full year results by the management, we will open the line to Q&A. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to the definition of the financial indicators that we will refer to during the presentation. They are on page 42 of the presentation. Please take a look at our usual disclaimer related to forward-looking statements, which is on page 44. With that, let me hand it over to the Chairman and CEO, Augustin de Romanet.
Thank you, Cécile. Good morning, everybody. We're happy to be with you, and thanks to be with us. It's a pleasure to be with you. As you probably saw in the headlines, we are posting solid results for 2022, meeting or exceeding most of the time all the targets we had set for the year. Revenue, which is EUR 4.7 billion, up 69% year-on-year, 2021. The two main drivers for this performance are, first, the vigorous recovery in traffic, both in Paris and internationally, and secondly, the strong momentum of the retail and services businesses in Paris. EBITDA stands at EUR 1.7 billion. This is a margin of 36.4% of revenues, in line with the objective to be in the upper part of the targeted range.
Net income is back to positive territory, standing at EUR 116 million. The ratio between our net financial debt on EBITDA significantly improved in 2022. It is standing at 4.5x EBITDA. We have exceeded our target here. Excluding the proceeds from the sale of our stake in Royal Schiphol Group, this ratio stands at 4.6x EBITDA compared to a target of 5x-5.5x EBITDA. This strong performance leads us to propose a dividend of EUR 3.13 per share for the approval of the next AGM. That is comfortably above the target flow we had set in February 2022, which was EUR 1. Next slide shows that today marks the first anniversary of the launch of our strategic roadmap, 2025 Pioneers.
I must say that I'm very pleased with its successful launch. As you will see in the highlights I'm about to present, we have initiated a series of actions contributing to build the foundations of a new airport model by 2025. Moving to slide 5, focusing on our operations in Paris. We welcomed nearly 87 million passengers in Paris, which is more than the double compared to 2021, up 106% versus last year. The second half of the year was particularly strong, reaching 88% of 2019 traffic. This strong recovery has been an operational and human challenge, I take this opportunity to thank our employees and partners for their mobilization and engagement. As you know, compared to other hubs in Europe, our performance has been excellent.
We've been able to manage this surge in traffic without any capacity restriction. You know that quality of service is very, very important for me, and that leads me to this topic of hospitality, which as you know, our core focus to us at the center of our that we call raison d'être. You can see on the graph on the left that passenger satisfaction remained just above 2019 levels. For sure, we had some difficulties, notably with police and controls for passports. Every day, we strive to build an hospitality model aimed at excellence. The progressive switch to this strategy shows promising signs of success.
You can see that the spending per departing passenger in our airside areas in Paris, this is what we call Extime Paris Sales/pax, has reached an all-time level of EUR 27.4. It is very impressive as far as we have 7 times less Chinese travelers than before. Nevertheless, we had a very good performance, especially in the fourth quarter, which has been outstanding. The seasonality of the business partly explains this record level. Nevertheless, the overall trends make us confident for the future of our retail and service businesses. 2023 marks the formal launch of our airport hospitality and retail new brand called Extime. I'm now on slide 7. Last April, you remember we reopened the Terminal 2G in CDG after it got a vibrant makeover. This was the inaugural introduction of the Extime brand under the lifestyle format and retail offering.
Beginning of December, we reopened a wonderfully upgraded Terminal 1 in CDG, our first boutique terminal, and really, I think a flagship. It is the first of our premium format executed. Believe me, it is stunning. It will soon be followed by CDG Terminal 2BD connection, building to be branded Extime under the lifestyle format, to be completed later this month and others to follow through 2023. About our international portfolio. To highlight some of the successful achievements in our international portfolio, I would like to mention first, at TAV Airports, the renewal of Ankara Airport concession until 2050. Regarding GMR Airports, Indonesia Capital City Airport Medan has been taken over since July. The New Goa Airport in India has just commissioned last autumn by Prime Minister Modi.
Third, the disposal of Cebu Airport in the Philippines was completed last December as part of the asset rotation and deleveraging target of GMR. Our international assets help having a well-balanced portfolio in terms of exposure to promising geographies, where demographic and economic patterns show significant growth potential. I'm pleased with the team's achievements in 2022. About social responsibility and governance, we have been very active. I'm now on slide 9. As a responsible employer, Groupe ADP is promoting individual civic engagement of its employees. In 2022, this materialized into more than 800 cumulated days benefiting to local non-profit organizations. Regarding governance, you will remember that ADP set up a stakeholder committee contributing to the alignment of its ESG targets and our financial objectives.
In a spirit of transparency, the stakeholder committee recently published a first white paper on the theme of ground access and strategies for reducing CO2 emissions on the ground. Even if I was not 100% in accordance with this paper, I've decided to publish it on my LinkedIn account, showing that I aim to share all the opinions, even some distance, which could provoke us. Now slide 10. Speaking about reduction of emissions, which is one of our priority, you see on slide 10 some example of the development introduced in our construction works projects. Groupe ADP wants to be the leader and is committed to reduce its carbon footprint by building less and better. The project highlighted in this slide illustrates our progresses with new construction modes and the use of materials and machinery with lowered carbon emissions.
Groupe ADP position itself as an active player in the airport transition. 16 airports of the group engaged in the Airport Carbon Accreditation program, 10 of them gained a level last year. I'm very proud we obtained the level 4 Airport Carbon Accreditation certification for our 3 French platforms, as well as in Amman, in Jordan last July. That last platform even received level 4 plus, which is the last step before reaching net zero internal emissions. Now, let's get into our performance more in details with Philippe Pascal.
Thank you, Augustin, and good morning, everyone. Let's move on to slide 13 with traffic. All our airports experienced a strong recovery of traffic. Traffic recovery against 2019 stood at 80.2% in Paris. As mentioned by Augustin, traffic more than double compared to the last year in Paris. A huge return of passengers. At the group level, the recovery remains just slightly higher than we ended up with 80.9% of 2019 traffic. These recovery levels fall in line with our assumption, which, as you remember, were raised in July and now last October. Moving to slide 14 to focus on Paris Airport.
We see that traffic with Europe, which amount to 45% of Paris Aéroport traffic, has recovered well to 82.8% of 2019 traffic levels in 2022, and 91.7% in Q4. This recovery continues to be particularly strong for local traffic, representing 27.6% of traffic in Paris compared to around 22% before COVID. International traffic, which, as you know, is the most contributive, both for regulated and non-regulated revenue, stood on 76.3% of 2019. Traffic with Asia remains the weakest, with only 34% of 2019 level. We saw an acceleration in the second half with 45% recovery compared to only 22% recovery in the first part of 2022.
China reopened only very recently and was still at only 6% of 2019 in Q4. If we look at how this traffic translate into our retail business in Paris, we see that performance has been consistently strong this year. Sales per pax outperforms our initial expectation, reaching the record level of EUR 27.4 in 2022, +EUR 2.1 above 2021, and +EUR 4 above 2019 sales per pax. Within that performance, we are seeing some pass-through of inflation on sales price, but with an overall modest impact. Above all, these numbers demonstrate the relevance of Groupe ADP's retail offer and airport hospitality model, which meets the demand of passenger. One of the most obvious sign on this is the strong growth in luxury product spending.
The reopening of Terminal 1 has been an important milestone for our new retail concept, Extime. We trust that the 2023 numbers will confirm this very good and strong performance. Moving on slide 15 for our two main international assets. As a reminder, SABA numbers are fully consolidated in our accounts. GMR Airports results are equity accounting. On the left side, SABA recovery stands at 80.2% of 2019 level. Touristy airports in Turkey are recovering well, notably Antalya with 87.5%, thanks to the traffic with U.K. and Germany, which was well above 2019 level. SABA's international assets in Georgia, Macedonia and most importantly, Almaty, show strong performance. Almaty is surpassing 2019 traffic level.
On the right side, we can see GMR Airports standing at 81.2% recovery, which is stronger in Indian airports, driven by domestic traffic, which stood at 19.9% of 2019 level. Note that Cebu Airport in the Philippines was disposed as part of the asset rotation and delivery engine strategy of GMR. Getting back to our financial performance in 2022, all key financial indicators strongly improved in volume, but also margin and leverage. I propose to move directly to slide 17 for more details on our revenue first. Revenue reached EUR 4.7 billion, up 68.8% versus last year. Within this growth, EUR 229 million are linked to the full year's effect of the integration of Almaty Airport, acquired in May 2021, and its revenue increased.
In Paris, the aviation segment is up 63%, driven by traffic recovery. The retail and services segment is up 75% versus 2021, helped by the strong sales per pax in addition to traffic. Revenue for real estate was up +6.8%, thanks to more rents due to the new development and the return to full ownerships of some buildings in 2021. Outside Almaty, other ports performance has been strong. International revenue almost double compared to 2021, totaling EUR 1.4 billion. Moving on to slide 18, with EBITDA standing at EUR 1.7 billion, up to EUR 953 million compared to last year. This strong improvement is driven by the recovery of traffic impacting positively our revenue. At the same time, our cost base benefited from relative protection against inflation.
The share of energy expenses in our OpEx remains stable in 2022. As you remember, we secured our energy purchases with edged prices until December 2023. Energy costs are expected to increase from 2024. Consumable and external services costs increased slower than traffic, +49% versus 2021. We still had a few terminals closed at the beginning of the year, which helped a bit. This good control also reflects the fact that a large proportion of our contracts include fixed price or are not directly indexed with inflation. Nevertheless, I remind you that around 10% of our contracts are indexed with inflation, and 15% of them will be renewing during 2023. As a result, we expect external services costs to move slightly up in 2023 and beyond.
Regarding staff costs, 2022 benefited from the effect of the departure plan, those departure occurred mainly at the early beginning of the year. At the same time, we have started to recruit again to accompany the return of traffic. Plus 550 people are recruited in 2022, minus almost 100 people with natural attrition. The effect of the recruitment in 2022 remained modest because recruitments were made progressively. It will be felt more in 2023. We implemented salaries increased from ADP mother company in the second half of 2022 for EUR 10 million, as well as some one-time profit sharing bonus paid in November and to paid in 2023 for an additional EUR 9 million. These two effects were offset by provisional reversal.
All in all, excluding Almaty, staff expenses were up to 16.6%, mainly due to salary increase and recruitment of TAV Airport and in our retail subsidiaries. EBITDA margin is up 9.4% point to 36.4% in the upper part of the 32%-37% target range as announced in October. Below EBITDA, slide 19, we can see amortization and impairment are mostly stable, while profit from associate and JVs is up EUR 75 million, mainly due to higher performance in TAV Operation Services company. This leads to an improvement in our operating income to EUR 936 million. Financial result is down EUR 6 million, benefiting from a lesser cost of debt and the EUR 36 million gain of, from Schiphol stake.
I remind that last year benefited from the positive impact of TAV Tunisie's debt restructuring for more than EUR 100 million. Income tax increased sharply to EUR 172 million, reflecting our return to profitability. Groupe ADP recorded its first profitable year since 2019, with a net income of EUR 518 million, leading to propose a dividend of EUR 3.1. Last word on net debt, slide 20. Net debt is down EUR 571 million compared to December 2021. Cash flow from operation has been strong, above EUR 1.5 billion, driven by the EBITDA growth, including the proceeds from RSG process stake disposal for EUR 420 million. Net debt ratio is improving drastically down to 4.4 times EBITDA.
Excluding this impact, it is 4.6x EBITDA, outperforming our target of 5x-5.5x the EBITDA. With that, I will hand back to Augustin. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Philippe. To close this presentation, I would like to give you a few comments on our outlook, starting with our priorities in 2023 on slide 22. This year, we will continue to be fully focused on our 2025 Pioneers strategic roadmap, contributing to the ecological transition of our sector. We as an airport are at the avant-garde of this ecological transition. This is a paramount objective, and it is at the heart of our work on capacity management planning in Paris this year. 2023 will also be the final year to prepare for the Olympics. We'll be getting ready to welcome delegations of athletes who have every specific needs. It will be a great opportunity to introduce some innovations in our passengers' journey, benefiting for the future of our infrastructures.
Olympics or not, we will welcome passengers in our airports with relentless effort to improve our services and hospitality, notably with the deployment of Extime, our new hospitality brand. Last, we will continue to strengthen the integration of our international airports network. As you can see, we continue to have a lot on our plate. This business program is dense in a context where the recovery in traffic continues. About traffic, some traffic outlook. We are getting a more precise view on our traffic expectations for 2023. Our central assumptions are unchanged, but we have narrowed our expected ranges. In Paris, traffic should stand this year between 87%-93% of the 2019 traffic. Going forward, we continue to see a return to 2019 level sometime between 2024 and 2026.
At group level, traffic this year should get closer to return to 2019 levels, and we expect 95%-105%. No change to our view of a return to 2019 level sometime between 2023 and 2024. Now, based on these assumptions and considering the performance delivered in 2022, as well as the various effects that Philippe Pascal described regarding our cost base and the strong growth expected in our international activities, let's look at our updated financial trajectory into 2025. First, EBITDA. EBITDA is expected to continue to grow, and it should be equal or above that of 2019 already in 2023. This is one year earlier than what we initially hoped for.
We confirm our guidance of an EBITDA margin between 32% and 37% of revenue in 2023. For the next couple of years, 2024, 2025, we now expect ADP SR OpEx per passenger between EUR 17 and EUR 20. This is certainly 1 or 2 EUR higher than our previous guidance, mainly driven by the expected increase in staff costs and energy costs, as Philippe explained. These effects combined with the stronger development of lower margin businesses, in particular at TAV, lead us to adjust our EBITDA margin expectations for 2024, 2025, which we now see between 35% and 38%. Extime Paris Sales per pax is now expected at 29.5% in 2025, versus previously 27.5% in our last guidance, therefore supportive to revenue on EBITDA growth. Next slide.
Building on the increase of cash generated by the growth in EBITDA, we will continue to redeploy capital according to a balanced allocation. In terms of CapEx, our previous guidance excluded inflation. Now it is in current euros, meaning it includes inflation. The overall envelope over the 2023-2025 period is slightly higher to reflect that and also to include some additional projects. At group level, we are now guiding for investments totaling around EUR 1.3 billion per year on average. This includes CapEx linked to Ankara concession renewal as announced in December. For ADPSA, we now expect around EUR 900 million per year on average. As far it is an average, therefore it could be slightly less in 2023 and slightly higher in 2025.
In addition to inflation, this increased envelope corresponds to new projects linked to the fast growth of cargo business and also an acceleration of the electrification of vehicles. In terms of returns to shareholders, our dividend policy remains unchanged, with a 60% payout and a minimum dividend per share of 3 EUR. We will then have flexibility to invest in our international development if opportunities arise. We will always, as usual, and however, exercise great financial discipline in such investment decision as our objective remains to de-leverage our balance sheet, as signaled by the improved net debt to EBITDA target between 3.5 and 4.5 in 2025. With Philippe, Edward will be happy to answer your questions. I propose we open the line for the Q&A session.
If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your line is unmuted locally as you will be advised when to ask your question. The first question comes from the line of Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. First one, we've seen the tough guidance on EBITDA for the next few years the other day. Could you tell us maybe just looking at the core Paris business, what level of traffic versus 19 levels do you need to get to the same EBITDA in Paris as in 2019? The second one, just very helpful to hear the moving parts on OpEx, the increases in OpEx in 23. Could you help us a bit quantify that? If you think that the overall Paris OpEx, what is the incremental in 2023 coming from staff, third party contract, and terminal reopening? Also, if you can give us a hint on the energy cost increase that you expect for 2024 versus the current levels.
The last one maybe on the incremental CapEx that you announced today, could you help us understand a bit better the split between regulated and non-regulated business? If you are more confident in the outcome on the regulated WACC from the regulator, do you believe there's this higher chances there that they will increase the WACC range versus the current one? Thank you.
Thank you very much. I propose that Philippe Pascal answers.
Yes. Thank you. I start by the last question about the regulated scope. In fact, we expect a strong performance in 2022 in term of regulated WACC and at a good level. That is a proof that globally, we can recover our profitability in a good position in line with the traffic, in line with our performance. All in all, it's also the proof that we can step by step have more color about the cap in term of value creation in the regulated scope cap. That is what is the level of regulated WACC. I can confirm that the regulated WACC, mechanically with this performance, it's higher than expected.
It's a little bit early to have to give you more color about that. In terms of incremental CapEx, what is very important for you to understand is the fact that our new guidance is in current euros. With the impact on inflation, the large part, around two-thirds of the incremental CapEx is linked by the impact of inflation. The new guidance, it's a way for us to give you more color about the impact of inflation. As you know, for the moment in our CapEx program, we execute some works with a specific agreement concluded before the inflation. We don't observe in 22 and a little bit in 23.
we don't have impacts of inflation in our CapEx program. In 2024, 2025, we expect a huge impact due to the fact that we now launch new project with new contract with the inflation. The inflation is globally around EUR 250 million. It's a main explanation of that. In term of OpEx. To have more color about the expectation of OpEx by 2025. We have first of all an impact in term of wages and salaries. We have a natural increase with natural inflation for in our model for around 2.5%.
It's the natural increase before the COVID crisis. We come back to this natural increase. We have also the impact of negotiation in term of salary measures. In this inflation, we due to the new agreement with the unions, we have bases, new bases with an increase of EUR 40 million in annual basis. In term of OpEx, in term of wages and salary, mechanically with a huge inflation in Turkey and with the recruitment, we expect higher OpEx for around EUR 90 million. It's a huge impact.
Full impact of the recruitment in 2022 for more than 500 people have an impact in our trajectory for the next year. In terms of consumable and external traffic, we have the impact of the recovery of the traffic, but it's not so huge. We don't have impact in terms of energy in 2023, but we expect a negative impact in 2024. It's a little bit early to speak a lot, not because we have to negotiate a new agreement to try to moderate this bad impact. In terms of the OpEx, we expect an inflation that is in line with the other company in Europe.
All in all, what is very important to note. First, we have a good recovery of EBITDA, and as you know, we can reach the EBITDA level of 2019 in 2023. It's a very good news on, and it's an organic growth. Second point, we note that for the performance in term of margin in 2022, it's an exceptional performance due to the fast recovery of the traffic, but also the moderation of the OpEx due to the fact that we have to recruit, we have to launch new subcontractors. We have an exceptional performance. For the next year, we come back to the traditional performance of the group.
We can see our new guidance. All in all, it's compared to the previous guidance, we just change the higher part of the range due to the fact that we note that we can, we have increased in staff cost and we have increased in energy. That's all. It's not a huge impact. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Philippe. Just a small clarification. On Paris EBITDA, if traffic recovery to 19 levels is 2024-2026, does it mean the EBITDA recovery of Paris is also in 2024-2026, or can it come earlier than that?
No, no. No. The EBITDA, the Groupe ADP EBITDA is come back in 2023 and very comfortable, and we have a good dynamic in 2024 and 2025. A strong dynamic due to both elements. First, we have a full recovery of the traffic between 2024 and 2036. Second point, we have new activities and we in a retail area and in the development. When you see the guidance of debt nets and EBITDA, you can see that we generate a new cash flow strongly. It's...
When you study our guidance, we can see that in, we have a good performance in, debt net and EBITDA, and we clarify our trajectory in EBITDA for the total of the group, included in Paris, that is a strong performance.
Understood. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Stéphanie D'Huart from RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for including my question. The first one is a follow-up on the energy costs. Could you please remind us, I believe you benefited from a cap or government subsidy and when you expect this to roll off and energy prices to impact your energy costs more substantially? Regarding the Extime initiatives, how much more stuff do you expect or investments to be made in order to benefit from this initiative? Finally, on your increased objective of EUR 0.295 per pax, could you please explain to us what has been driving this increase? Is it like Chinese travelers coming back? Do you anticipate Russian spenders to be back by 2025? That would be hugely appreciated. Thank you.
For your last question, cents per pax and the drivers. First of all, as you know, we have different elements in to drive our performance. First element, it's the number of square meters in Paris in our co-commercial area. That is not a strong driver for the next few years. We don't create new terminal, we just refurbish and we change the commercial area. We don't change the volume of the commercial area. The second driver is the mixed traffic. In fact, we expect better mixed traffic for the full recovery of the international traffic. And in this international traffic, we expect a slight recovery, better recovery in term of Asia passenger in 23 and progressively in 24 and 25.
The last driver, but it's the more important driver, is the quality of goods and the offering. That is a key in our strategy because we change our strategy to implement more fashion and we implement new brands. For example, we have new shops. We have just one shop of Louis Vuitton in Terminal 2. Now we have new shops of Louis Vuitton in Terminal 1 in Paris Charles de Gaulle. This new goods, new brands take a good place in our new hospitality model.
The key point is the fact that we try to implement a global approach through Extime, with retail, but also food and beverage, with the atmosphere in the boarding area, with lounge, with advertising. That is important to understand. It's the global concept create a huge performance in term of self-service. Mainly the increase of the self-service in 2024 and 2025 to reach our new guidance in 2025, that is EUR 29.5. It's linked by the fact that we try to implement our model in our flagship Terminal 2 and Terminal 1 in the other terminal, in the lifestyle terminal also. That is the first point.
The second point, it's the mechanic recovery of the international traffic and the recovery on the Asia traffic for the next year. For the Extime initiative. In fact, we try to implement our Extime initiative in the other terminal in Paris, especially in Terminal 2B and 2D, which is a new terminal, but we have to retrofit this terminal in Extime atmosphere. In the other airport of Groupe ADP, notably, we try to implement that in Antalya, but we have another element and another project for that. For the energy cost, we will wait for the end of the winter, when we have more visibility to define more in detail our approach for 2024 and onward.
We currently benefit from fixed price based on a tariff contracted in 2020. To use the not to use, that is very important to answer your question. We not use the state tariff scheme. We don't use the cap system. That is very important in our performance. Our performance is just linked by our former agreement and our hedging strategy.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Next question comes from the line of Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Sorry, I will come back to some of the points discussed. First on EBITDA, there was a reversal of provision that helped the 2022 EBITDA and margin. Can you just clarify what was the underlying EBITDA without that? Therefore, given the increase in OpEx that you expect from here, is it fair to assume that EBITDA margin will likely be lower in 2023 than the 2022 reported of 36.4%? That's my first question. Second, on CapEx guidance. Now I understand you're now including inflation. You said it's about 2/3 of the increase. Can you remind us what the 1/3 remaining is, in particular in Paris, given you said there's additional project internationally?
Can you give us the phasing of CapEx between 23, 24 and 25, rather than just an average, please? Is it gonna be more front-end loaded or back-end loaded? Last question on traffic, if I may. Your guidance for 23 implies basically no recovery from the current level. Why is that? Is it because you expect impact of Asia, China reopening in particular to kick in more in 24? Because your guidance basically implies fairly stable trends for the remaining of the year. If I can Yeah, that's fine. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Elodie. First of all, for the EBITDA. I t's the EBITDA level, is expected to increase strongly for the next year. For in terms of margin, we have 2 effects. The main effect is the combination of activities with the fuel of Almaty, that is with a good margin, but not at the same level as other activities of Groupe ADP. The effect of the full consolidation of part of our JV, especially the retail, that we have a very strong return with a strong generation of cash flow, but with a slight margin, a good margin, but just a margin below the average margin of Groupe ADP.
That is the main explanation of the question of margin. The other explanation is the OpEx level, but it's not so huge. When you see in our performance in 2022, that is your question. We have a one-off effect, but not so huge, for around 24 and EUR 40 million. We can see that globally at the EBITDA level, we have about 1 point of EBITDA margin that is linked to one-off elements. For also staff expensive, positively impacted for EUR 20 million by provision reversal for the denaturation of pension scheme.
We have other one-off effect that is the property tax, that we have a good news, and we reverse also our provision, and a slight element that is not so huge. In terms of organic performance, we don't have any issue. In terms of CapEx, I said that globally, we increase the CapEx level on average for the three years, 2023, 2024, 2025. The main explanation for two-thirds it is the inflation for EUR 250 million. We have in fact additional project that is a very good project, especially in terms of cargo, in terms of maintenance hangar.
Also, in term of optimization in our capacity, to due to the acceleration of the traffic in at the earth of the hub. We have also slight element like in electrification, refurbishment, that it's a part of this scheme. In term of phasing, we huge part of the CapEx are more backing back end loaded, so more in 2024 and 2025. For traffic, the recovery, in fact, we are, as you know, we try to define more precisely our assumption for 2023, but we maintain our assumption from 2024 and 2025 for full recovery between 2024 and 2025. Probably 2024, but perhaps 2025.
The fact is, in fact, we expect to progressive recovery in term of geotraffic globally in the second half of 2023 for main part, but not for the total traffic level. The main effect, it's the policy, the strategy of the airlines that open new routes when we have good profitability, not just to not just to open to deserve a strong competition between all the airlines, but to assume the fact that we don't reopen due to the profitability. For the month, we are comfortable with this assumption in term of traffic and price. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Nicolas Mora from Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. I'll come back again on the CapEx, maybe less on Paris, more on the rest of the group. I'm not sure I quite understand why you would be spending EUR 1.3 billion on average between 2023 and 2025. I think TAV's already given some guidance on CapEx. For example, for 2023, around EUR 220 million, EUR 260 million. I'm not sure what else is contributing to the delta between, you know, EUR 900 million for Paris, which is fine, and EUR 1.3 billion for the group level. That's the first question. Second, on retail. Could you explain or give a little bit of color on why profitability was actually so amazing in 2022 in retails?
We have the details of the contribution from SVA, for the old SVA, we have the details contribution from Relay. It's fine, but the leftover. It's really amazing. That's really a step up from what you used to deliver margin-wise in 2019. Was just wondering what has changed. Why, why are you so much profitable in retail EUR for EUR now? I will leave it there.
So the international CapEx, the main explanation is the fact that TAV won a new concession period in Ankara, and for that has to build new terminals for an element of around for the next few years. It's globally, yeah, EUR 200 million. But at the same time, we have to implement our plan in Almaty. And in Almaty, the main it's a part of the explanation for around EUR 100 million, a little bit less. And we have also a real estate in the international business in Almaty. So globally, it's a good news. It's the consequence of good news.
It's not, it's a new project with good impacts in our P&L at the end of the day. For your question of the retail activities, can you just clarify your point? What is your precisely your question?
The main question is your EBITDA contribution from the retail business in Paris is pretty massive in 2022, especially if you strip out Extime and Relay@ADP. Your core business in retail is now generating higher margins on retail than pre-COVID. Is it because the contract has now been improved, or, I mean, you've just come-
It's.
Yeah.
It's a quality of of thing, and the new luxury brands for a huge part. That is the retail margin in 2022 compared to 2019, for the second half. Just for the second half, that is the impact of the full recovery. It's very high, more than 40% compared to 2019. This is the effect of the new scheme and the with more fashion, with a global approach in term of retail and with a good dynamic of traffic.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Ruxandra Haradau-Doser from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Congratulations on the strong performance in 2022 on the Skytrax rankings and the passenger satisfaction improvements at Paris terminals. First, sorry if I missed that during the presentation, can you talk about tariffs in 2024 and 2025? What tariff trend shall we expect? Flat, increasing, decreasing? Second, if I remember correctly, you were mentioning a few years ago that the areas of Air France in Terminal 2 are capacity constrained. Air France has almost restored pre-crisis capacity, how shall we think about terminal capacity requirements of Air France in the future, and maybe some indications on major CapEx projects after 2025?
Third, last summer, operational disruptions at some airports like Schiphol, UK airports affected all major airports in Europe within a short period of time. How do you see the airport system in Europe prepared for traffic during the Eastern holidays and summer this year? Some airlines are currently mentioning that the bottleneck this year will be the air traffic control and particularly the air traffic control in France, where some IT systems will be changed. How concerned are you with respect to operational disruptions this summer? Finally, could you please talk about how the satisfaction levels of employees at Aéroports de Paris compare to French companies in general? I asked this question in the ESG session last year, Edward mentioned that he will be able to answer it only after a survey done at the end of 2022.
Thank you very much.
I start by your first question about tariff. As you know, the level of tariff depends on the convergence between the regulated ROCE and the regulated WACC. That is, and we need some visibility about the regulated WACC. Keep in mind that OpEx increase will put a bit more pressure on the regulated ROCE, so a low, probably, a slight increase in term of tariff. The WACC should also embark progressively the current market condition, therefore, increasing mean price progressively. To be very clear, we reach the regulated WACC, our regulated ROCE reached the regulated WACC in 2018, 2019.
We have a cap in term of value creation in the regulated scope at this moment. With the strong recovery, we mechanically increase our regulated ROCE, and we have to manage progressively the fact that we reach the cap. To manage that, we have to take in count the level of OpEx. If you have more OpEx, mechanically it's possible to have an impact in our tariff increase. We have to manage our CapEx program. When we reach the cap, if we have more CapEx due to the needs in term of capacity, we it's possible to manage a fact with an increase in term of in term of tariff.
We have also to manage the level of traffic jam. Clearly, I tried to give you the different elements, but I cannot answer your two question. The second part of Air France capacity constrain. Clearly, when pre-COVID situation in 19 and 20, we want to launch a new terminal, that is the Terminal 4, due to the fact that we expect saturation in term of capacity for the hub of Air France. We need a new infrastructure 6, 7 years after. Now, 3 years after, we have the same element due to the capacity constraint of Air France, but we don't have the same strategy.
We try to implement our Pioneer strategy. For that, we have two step. The first step is to optimize the current terminal that is possible to accompany the traffic increase of Air France, but also for the all company in CDG to wait a new infrastructure perhaps in 2032, 2034. For this new infrastructure, if you read our Pioneer strategy, it's not a global terminal. It's perhaps a new boarding area, a new air side system, a new commercial approach, but it's not a global infrastructure for the full process, airport process. For the restriction, we don't have a restriction in Paris, and we don't expect re-restriction.
In fact, we have some work for the civil aviation. All in all, globally for this year, we don't expect an impact. I could say about satisfaction of employees. First, in December, we had an agreement with unions for the increase of wages for 2023. It is the first time in the history of the company that we have unanimity. The first time for 10 years, sorry, that we have unanimity of unions to accept the increase of wages we propose, first. Second, we are very transparent with our unions, we did an inquiry about stress, about risk of burnout, about all the spirit, state of spirit of all our people.
This attitude leads to a very lucid, we share the situation with the unions, and I think the social climate is improving very, very quick. I will give you an example. We had a strike of firemen last summer, and last week I received a letter from the firemen warmly thanking us to have taken in account their requests, which is unique. They recognize that we improve their recognition of their qualification. Last but not least, I will give you an information important, that the unions did accept to approve the dividend of the company and they vote in favor of the dividend, all the unions, which was not the habit in the company.
I could say that we took this problem face strongly in our hands, and I'm quite optimistic about the satisfaction of our employees. As far I will propose them free stocks. We did announce yesterday at the board of directors that we will implement the free stock distribution program we did announce in Pioneers 2025. Thanks to the stocks we bought when we had the operation with Royal Schiphol Group. When Royal Schiphol Group has sold its 8% in ADP, in ADP, we bought 0.3% dedicated fully to distribution to our staff. I don't know if it is answer to your question, but it all that you can say today.
The next question comes from the line of José Manuel Arroyas from Santander. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I will ask three questions, if I may. First, on the tariffs at Paris for 2023 and the level of work that was used by the regulator to approve those tariffs.
I sensed that you didn't want to disclose the exact WACC values that were used by the regulator. Could you. I mean, I will ask you in case you can disclose those, and if this level of WACC is, in your opinion, the one that we should consider sustainable in the medium term. Second, the second question is, how much longer do we need to wait before ADP starts new negotiations and consultations for a new era? The third question is on international investments. I wanted a couple of clarifications. First, what do you exactly mean by being open to new international investments? Would this be done through ADP or through the two international platforms, TAV and GMR?
In relation to GMR, would ADP be open to supporting the company's balance sheet? Thank you.
Okay. For your first question, we freeze the tariff for 2023 due to the fact that we have a strong recovery in term of traffic. We have a good dynamic in term of revenue, and we can maintain at a good level our OpEx. We don't have in 2022 and probably a part of 2023 a huge impact in term of inflation. It's for us, it was important to not to increase the tariff when we don't need to increase the tariff. Probably in the next few years, we have inflation, we have a new CapEx program, and we have to increase the tariff. When it's not necessary, we freeze the tariff.
Globally, we've When you freeze the tariff, we have a mechanic increase in term of regulated ROCE. The French regulator, in the decision, is not very clear about the level of cap and the level of regulated ROCE. He just approved our tariff strategy and improve the freeze of tariff. In our model, in the business model of 23 that we deliver to the French regulator, we have underlying an expectation in term of regulated ROCE. If the French regulator approve this regulated ROCE, this business case, it's due to the fact that it's probably lower than the regulated WACC. It's, it's, we.
When you in the next few weeks, when we disclose our regulated ROCE for 22 and mechanically, when you modelize the regulated ROCE for 23, we can see that globally what is the range of the regulated WACC acceptable for the French regulator, that is probably around 4%, perhaps a little bit more. It's difficult to see exactly what is the position of the French regulator. The second question in term of economic regulation agreement. The why we don't have now an economic regulation agreement. First of all, when you have an economic regulation agreement, we have a commitment in term of CapEx program. We have to deliver the CapEx program.
If we don't have enough CapEx program, we have some issue in term of regulation. It's not the moment to have a strong commitment in term of CapEx program. We can see our strategy. Last year, we decreased a little bit more to our CapEx to optimize our model. This year, we have a new guidance that we can see that we have a huge impact in term of inflation. We try to change our airport model. It's not the moment to fix a level of CapEx for the next eight years. Why eight years? Because we have to negotiate during two or three years the French economic regulation agreement. We are...
With this agreement, it's for five years. We need the visibility for eight years, but it's not the case now. In 2023, we don't have to work about an economic regulation agreement. It's a good news for our shareholders because we try to be to manage the situation, to preserve our room of maneuver to accompany our recovery. It's. In fact, at the same moment, we know that at the end of the day, our regulated ROCE reach the regulated WACC, and we have just to manage to stay at the cap level, not to mechanically to increase the tariff. Tariff depends of the industrial strategy, especially for the CapEx program for the next few years.
In terms of international development, clearly, yeah, we are very selective, but we are open to a new opportunity. That is very important for us, is to check if we have a good balance and if we have a good value creation compared to Paris. The priority is still Paris because we don't have a huge risk, and we have a lot of needs. But if we have to prepare the future, we have to deliver international development. In this point, we in fact, we have a development for JV mainly. We can see that with Antalya, with Ankara, perhaps tomorrow, with the Nigeria and the Montenegro and full GMR Airports.
That is not consolidated, but it's very important to like a platform to develop the group with the privatization of India linked by the strong dynamic in term of aeronautical activities. We can see the huge development of Air India. Not least, the international development. It's not just the airport business, it's also the retail business through our the development of our new brands, which is Extime. For that, we try to implement these brands like, say, Antalya, perhaps another airport, Almaty or so on, but also in new geography like North America. We don't need for this development new injection of the mother company in JV and in GMR. We can manage this situation.
It's the heart of our strategy to have a international platform development, but with a good dynamic. In fact, we have to deleverage strongly GMR Airports. It's a common target with the GMR family. We have also to stabilize the situation of TAV, after this strong development in Antalya and Ankara. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the questions. Just two short ones from me. Firstly, you mentioned adding around 500 in terms of headcount in 2022. I just wondered what that number you're expecting that number to be in 2023 in terms of additional headcount. Then on spend per pax, are you able to break out the impact of your assumptions around inflation on that higher guidance versus maybe where you're seeing performance a little bit higher than you're expecting under the Extime brand? Just the split between the impact of inflation and underlying performance there on that new guidance. Thank you.
The impact of the recruitment in 2022, we increased strongly the staff with more than 500 people. This impact will be for the full year effect for around EUR 20 million. All in all, we have to continue the recruitment mainly to accompany the recovery of the traffic. We can manage at the end of the day our infrastructure with less people compared to 2019 for around 700 people. That is important to do.
In terms of sales per pax, I don't know what is possible to explain more than we have to explain before. We don't have a huge impact in terms of inflation. We have impact in terms of price and so on, but not so huge. The inflation was modest, just an organic performance due to our quality of traffic, quality of offering.
Thanks very much.
The next question comes from the line of Dario Maglione from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Morning. Congratulations on the strong H2 results. I have two questions. First one, what was the OpEx in ADP SA in 2022? What shall we expect for 2023? Second question on regulated CapEx in Paris over the next few years. What shall we expect? Is a range of EUR 550 million-EUR 650 million a good range? Third question on interest spend for 2023, what shall we expect? Fourth question on retail revenue. I noticed that revenue from other shops bar and restaurants was very strong in Q4. What is driving it? Is there any one-off effect? Thanks.
First in term of OpEx. For the OpEx of ADP mother company in 2022, I let you see in our press release. We have all the figures. In fact, we stabilize our OpEx, we have just an increase compared to the traffic, and we have just an increase in the around 50% compared with strong increase in term of reviews of more than 80%. For the next year, and for 2023, we expect the full impact in term of staff cost due to the measure decided in 2022. I see clearly the current figures.
We don't expect a huge increase in terms of energy because we have the cap and the hedge system. We have for the overcost, we have to renegotiate the part of our contract with our subcontractor. We are disclosing in the presentation the level of contract that we have to renegotiate, it's not so huge. During the negotiation we expect a slight impact in terms of inflation. At the moment, it's not so huge for 2022. In terms of OpEx per pax, our performance is under control with EUR 17.6 per pax.
Reminder that I explained clearly just before, it's a fact that in 22, we outperform our structure of cost due to the fact that we manage our infrastructure without all the people that we need. We have a good structure to manage our cost without impact in term of inflation. It's an exceptional year and we have just a recovery, not a recovery, normalization in our tariff structure. In for the second question in term of regulated CapEx. For the second question in term of regulated CapEx, we can see that in Generally, we have two-third of regulated CapEx and one-third of non-regulated CapEx.
For the next few years, we have more non-regulated CapEx due to the fact that it's a diversification cargo, new luggage, security system that is non-regulated. For the third question, the interest spend, I can give you some color about that. We can see just our figures in our account, but we don't have to disclose these different elements. We can see in our pre-presentation in the handbook. The fact that on average, the average cost it's 2.3%. Just for the mother company, for ADP SA, it's 1.4%, 1.9%. Globally, we have a very good structure with a share of fixed rate debt for around 90.4%.
not variable. 94. Very good position. The full debt, it's a fixed rate. For your last question in term of retail, I don't understand clearly what do you say. What is the other retail shop?
Revenue in other shops and restaurants was very strong in Q4.
I think we can check with the IR team because I don't see clearly what do you mean. Friends, due to too many other constraints we have, it's now time to close this presentation. Thank you everyone for having logged on to our conference. We're looking forward to seeing you all in the coming days and weeks. Our next financial communication will be on the 26th of April with our Q1 revenue disclosure. Feel free as well to get in touch with the best investor relation teams in France and perhaps in Europe. I mean, Cécile Combeau and Eliott Roch. This team is at your disposition for any question. With that, good day everyone.
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your line.