Good morning and welcome to Groupe ADP. Today's call will be recorded, and if you want to ask a question at the end of the presentation, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please limit yourself to two questions per analyst. I now hand over the call to Cécile Combeau, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us upon such short notice as we released last night preliminary information on H1 2025 visits. I am here with Christelle de Robillard, our CFO. We will go through a few prepared remarks before taking your question together with also Antoine Combeau, Deputy CFO. Before we start, and as usual, I remind you that certain information to be discussed on today's call is forward-looking and is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For this, I refer you to the disclaimer statements included in our press release. I will now leave the floor to Christelle.
Thank you, Cécile, and good morning, everyone. Thank you again for joining us upon short notice. We indeed published last night some preliminary information regarding the H1 2025 results. I will be very short, as there are only four takeaways for this release. First one, our operating performance is solid. As the semester just ended, our estimates for operating and financial performance in the first half are solid, and on this basis, we reaffirm all of our objectives for the full year 2025. Second highlight, below a big EBITDA, we see certain non-cash effects linked to the abnormal foreign exchange moves this semester. The magnitude of these effects in the first half and their combination with the accounting of the surplus of income tax will significantly deteriorate our net income.
As specified in our release, we expect a negative impact on net income totaling EUR 150 million-EUR 180 million in the first half of 2025, of which EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million for the surplus of corporate tax implemented with the Finance Act of 2025, and EUR 90 million-EUR 110 million linked to FX variations. This brings me to the third highlight. The EUR 90 million-EUR 110 million FX-linked items are non-cash, which means that the capacity of ADP to invest or to pay dividend remains unchanged. Fourth and last point, in this context, we will propose to the Board of Directors to adjust the distribution policy in order to offset the effect that these items may have on the dividend calculation for 2025. These are the main points I wanted to highlight, and I propose we now open the line for your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Kindly be reminded, this is limited to a maximum of two questions only. We will pause for just a moment while waiting for them to queue for questions. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Graham Hunt of Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for this call and also allowing for the questions. Maybe just I wanted to ask on keeping on FX point, you have not mentioned this in the statement, but can you speak to any impacts on FX that you are seeing in your domestic operations in Paris? I just wondered if there was also any impact you had seen particularly on weakening US dollar on Paris retail. Thank you.
Yes, for sure. Thank you, Graham, for this question. For that question, basically, the message is the same as the one I conveyed during the first quarter of the year. First of all, you've seen that we have confirmed our annual guidance in terms of sur-tax. Next time, Paris sur-tax is between 4-6% in 2025 compared to 2023. This means that what we are seeing for the moment is totally in line with our expectation and that we are not enduring major or significant effects of the FX variation in the domestic operation and in the level of sur-tax. We are confident to confirm, even if we continue to monitor closely the situation. Maybe I can let Cécile complete a little bit this performance.
As yeah, you all have in mind that sur-tax in the first quarter was strong with EUR 33.4 delivered, which is a 2% growth compared to the first quarter. A solid start to the year. If you remember the sequential evolution of surtax last year, it was very strong in the first part of the year, plus 7% in the first half, but only up 3% in the second part of the year. As previously commented, the slowdown had reflected some several effects which are actually specific to ADP. It's internal. Re-basing effect since July 2024 when some international airlines chose to relocate from terminal one to terminal two AC. We expect that to continue to impact in the first half of 2025. It's included in the Q1.
We also have the descriptions of the retail areas in terminal 2E, hall K, which is undergoing some works in the retail area and which are actually intensifying in the second quarter. The third item, which is internal, is the normalization of advertising activity, which is taken into account in the sur-tax. We recorded, as you all remember, an outstanding performance in 2024 before and during the Olympics. This is also expected to weigh somewhat in the performance. Again, including all of these items, and so far, no material sign of impact linked to USD weakness or euro appreciation, that gives us the full comfort with our sur-tax guidance for this year of sur-tax growing between 4%-6% compared to 2023, meaning that we are expecting this year sur-tax between EUR 31.8 and EUR 32.4.
Thanks. Can I just ask for my second question? I just wanted to ask on the dividend policy proposal, how are you thinking about that in terms of this is just for 2025? Is there any, just to confirm that. It applies to both the tax surcharges here and the FX. If we were to see taxes extended, for example, into the 2026 budget, there would not be any consideration for that in this proposal. Is that fair?
Yes. On this question, you understand the global objective and the proposal that we will make to the Board of Directors to adjust indeed the distribution policy as to offset the effects and especially the non-cash effects. You understand that all the FX variations are non-cash, contrary to the surplus of income tax, which you know previously and which has a cash effect. We will propose a new policy once again to offset those effects that could have an impact on the dividend calculation for 2025. Clearly, at this stage, it's too early to make any comment on how and the modalities of this compensation. We are studying all options to put a proposal for the board, and it will be the board who will have the final decision. Indeed, we intend just to target something for the 2025 distribution policy.
Of course, we will come back to you on that topic after the board of the 13th of July.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We will now move on to our next question from Eloy De Wylde of JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I was wondering if you generally have seen a bit more softness from U.S. traffic. You referred to that last week. I was wondering if it's something that you've seen. That's my first question. Second, if you have any update on the conversation you've had with the regulator regarding the next regulation plan and if in this discussion you'd include protection against tax changes indeed in the next five-year or ten-year period in order to protect the group.
Okay. Thank you, Eloy, for your question. Regarding pricing, maybe first element, again, as for the surtax, you saw that we are confirming our annual guidance of Paris traffic up between 2.5%-4% in 2025 compared to 2024. That means that what we are seeing now is in line with our expectation in terms of capacity and what we see in terms of reservation and schedule with airlines. Speaking especially indeed on the traffic with the United States, we are not seeing any major impact also at the moment. The reservation and the schedule are quite in line for the summer. Maybe just a slight decrease at the end of the fall, but really something that is not significant at this stage and again, which enabled us to confirm the annual guidance.
Regarding your second question, the modality of protection in tax FX, if I understand well, on the FX changes that could affect our outcomes and how we will mitigate and take them into account in the framework of our negotiation and the next economic regulation agreement. Maybe what is important to have in mind here is that, as you have seen, all these impacts are more linked to our international subsidiaries, TAV from one side, for currency exchange laws, for deferred tax laws, and GMR through, especially and mainly, the FCCB. When we are negotiating for Paris, the only impact that FX can have is through indeed the operational performance, referring to Graham's previous question. Once again, for the moment, we are not seeing any impact. For this specific topic of FX variation, normally, it is not something that concerns the regulated scope.
We don't expect to have any specific protection regarding the FX evolution in the economic regulation agreement. As I said, more globally, for the next economic regulation agreement, we will foresee indeed some clauses to protect more generally on some variation, inflation, for instance. For that, we will have different kinds of protection. The first kind of protection is what I call the adjustment factor. For instance, on the traffic, we will have a best-case scenario. If ever the traffic is beyond or below a specific range, in this case, there can be specific adjustments on the tariffs through bonus or malus. This is the first layout of protection. The second layout of protection is some revision scenario. Once again, the law itself foresees a revision at year four, and we will have to specify how this revision mechanism is working.
Third layout of protection, you know it. It was the one we used for economic regulation number three, the termination in case of force majeure. On the specific point of FX evolution, this is not something really linked to the regulated scope.
The tax surcharge, it's rare to be like an envelope. If we were to see more tax surcharge prices in the next few years, but I guess it's the same as the protection, right?
Yeah. Exactly. On the specific question regarding tax, indeed, we will have to foresee the different scenario, and it could enter, for instance, in the revision scenario. This is something we have to work internally and to specify, depending on the magnitude of the impact of the tax evolution that could be put into place during the economic regulation agreement.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now move on to our next question from Martin Orth of Bank of America. Your line is open , please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. My question is on the impact of the increase of the French corporate tax. You are guiding EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million in H1, but the guidance you originally gave for the full year, I believe, was EUR 110 million-EUR 120 million. My question is, is that guidance that was given originally for the full year, is it still valid, or now the impact for the full year is expected to be higher? Because if I compare these two, it looks like there is some sort of skew towards H1, and typically, in almost all of the earnings metrics, H1 is a smaller percentage of the full year and H2 is a higher percentage. Is there some sort of seasonality adjustment in that specific tax? Thank you.
Yes. Thank you, Martin. So indeed, you're right. We have explained that we are expecting a surplus of EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million for the first half. And indeed, as a reminder, we had given an estimate of EUR 110 million-EUR 120 million for the full year. The first half is slightly heavier due to the accounting method applicable. Indeed, there is a portion related to 2024 in this surplus of income tax, and this specific amount is accounted for in the first half of 2025, contrary to the portion based on the 2025 income, which is recognized over the course of 2025. All in all, the amount for the first part of the year is higher than the one we will endure during the second half of the year.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Eric Lemarié of CIC. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning. I was wondering, just a very basic question. I was wondering, is there any specific reason why you decided to change the times, the day and the speakers of these records calls? Because it was initially scheduled for tomorrow with the IR team, and now it's with you this morning. I was wondering if there is any reason behind that, and if you plan in the future to continue with this group records call combined with a press release publication, so just before the blackboard players?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. For sure, we can clarify this. There will still be a pre-close call. This conference call with short notice was due to the fact it is totally an exceptional event due to the fact that we disclosed yesterday this specific preliminary information regarding H1 2025 results. Given the magnitude of the impact of FX evolution, we considered that it was better and more transparent to the market to give you the information straight away. We organized this specific call to explain the element of the elements regarding all those impacts. Of course, we are maintaining in parallel the pre-close call with the IR team, and it's now something that we have organized for the last result, and we are intending to maintain that. These are two different processes.
Okay. So tomorrow, we still got a call with Steven?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah. Of course.
We might do it a bit shorter and not address again things that we just discussed, like standard tax again, things like that.
Okay. Thank you. That's clear. Thank you very much indeed.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Hari Shankar of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open , please go ahead.
Good morning. It's Hari from Deutsche Bank. Thanks for taking the question. Firstly, would you be able to split the FX impact into the three buckets that you've highlighted in the press release on DIY depreciation versus annual depreciation? Secondly, if I read through the Turkish depreciation impact, it looks like you're talking about for the countries that are having the lira as their national currency and the debts issued in foreign currency, the depreciation leading to an increase in the value of these debts and their accounts, which is understandable. Presumably, you would be converting this back into EUR terms for ADP reporting, and shouldn't that actually be neutral? I just couldn't get my head around it.
Sorry, the line was really not so good, so very, very hard for us to understand. If I get some elements in your question, indeed, we have three effects, three major effects in those FX variations, either direct or indirect on our accounts. The two first effects are linked to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira with currency exchange laws. Just to extend, this is totally detailed in our press release. For Turkish companies with the Turkish Lira as their functional currency and which have issued debts in foreign currency, that means euro or USD, the depreciation of the Turkish Lira leads to the increase in the value of the debt in their accounts. This has an impact on financial results or on profit and loss from equity-accounted companies when it is not fully integrated companies.
Second effect for Turkish companies with the euro as their functional currency is the depreciation, and this is really the new effect that we are seeing for the two past months. The depreciation of the Turkish lira is now stronger than the local inflation measured as the interinflation index. In this case, the value of the future tax benefits decreases, leading to the negative impact on our accounts. This has an impact, and I guess this is answering, I hope, to your question. This has an impact on deferred tax assets. This is clearly an indirect impact through deferred tax assets. The third effect is the Indian rupee depreciation. Here, the major effect concerns the FCCB, which is euro-denominated and which leads to an increase in the level of debt in GMR Airports accounts.
For this, as it is in the equity-accounted companies, there are no direct impacts for me in the income tax.
Understood. Thanks. Apologies about the quality of the line. Hopefully, it's better now.
Yes.
Maybe on the first part, any broad bucket between what is the value in each of these items?
The split of each item, so no, sorry, we are not disclosing it. We give a full range, but all in all, it's a kind of half and half between Turkish lira and Indian rupee. We don't give the specific bucket for each item because it's an estimate for the moment. It has to be confirmed within the final result. It is better not to clarify. We are starting the process of closing, so we will be able maybe to give more color when we have the final figure for first half. Keep in mind that at this stage, our estimation is half-half between Turkish lira effect, the two first elements, sorry, and the effects regarding Indian rupee.
Understood. Thanks.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Christian Nedelcu of UBS. Your line is open , please go ahead.
Thank you very much. The first question, you signed a long-term agreement with Air France regarding developing the Paris Airports. I wanted to check if you step back, are there other airlines in particular that you believe can drive traffic growth over the next years in Paris? So any other airlines that are expressing interest to increase their capacity in a meaningful way in Charles de Gaulle and Orly? The second question, in terms of the regulatory proposal, is there any timeline that you can say we're expecting any decision from the regulator on the WACC or maybe if you can tell us a bit more when you think you will present your economic proposal for the next regulatory period? And the third one, if you allow me, there's a few press articles talking about Hyderabad spending around USD 1.6 billion on CapEx until the end of this decade.
I don't know if you can comment if that information is accurate, but in particular, I'd be curious, will they need to raise more debt to finance that CapEx program in Hyderabad, or is that financed organically through their free cash flow? In the past, you've mentioned there's not a lot of free cash flow generation until the end of the decade. I was curious if you can clarify that. Thank you.
Yeah. Regarding the partnership with Air France, just to remind you that indeed we have signed an agreement to really reinforce our position and competitive at the hub level in a context where there is important competition with other international hubs, especially in the Middle East. It was important for us to have a specific agreement with Air France to work on some specific measures to reinforce our position and our competitivity regarding other airports. It is clearly a separate process than the process of the negotiation of the economic regulation agreement. There are some quick wins with Air France, but with no impact in terms of no commitment in terms of CapEx or tariff, which will be negotiated through the economic regulation agreement. Regarding your question, are there other airlines interested in increasing their capacity in Paris? Yes, this is something we are also working on.
In the framework of the negotiation for the next economic regulation agreement, we are speaking with the main airlines to see what could be their need and to see what we could envisage specifically for other important airlines. The economic regulation agreement concerns really all the airlines, so we have to find the best balance as possible to answer to each party's interest. Regarding your second question for the economic regulation agreement, the timeline we gave for the first quarter is unchanged. That is to say that we intend to submit a proposal at the end of this year, 2025, to have one-year negotiation with the French state to get the approval of the regulator, but also to discuss with airlines with the final objective to implement the new regulation agreement at the beginning of 2027 at the latest.
Regarding the WACC, there is no change since our last disclosure. We are expecting to have an opinion of the regulator within the framework of the 2026 tariff process from one side, and we will have also a specific opinion given by the regulator expected at the beginning of 2026 for the estimation of the WACC for the EUR period. This is something expected more at the beginning of 2026, and nothing new should be known before this deadline. Maybe on Hyderabad, I'll let Antoine answer.
Yes, thank you, Christelle. Briefly on Hyderabad, I guess that what you are referring to is probably some numbers or rumors around numbers that are linked with the ongoing consultation of Hyderabad on its next control period for the tariff. At this stage, it's a bit too early to know the exact amount and the phasing of this amount for Hyderabad. Nevertheless, it is clear that if you look at the traffic forecast of Hyderabad, which is very dynamic and very dynamic in particular on the international traffic, which is also very contributive, we know that there will be probably indeed by the end of the decade a new CapEx cycle to accommodate this traffic growth at the airport. Having said that, Hyderabad has a very good, as you know, financial profile and that's a very positive news for GMR Airports.
Hyderabad has already started this year to distribute dividends to its mother company, GMR Airports, hence starting to generate also very positive cash flow to the holding level. That also strengthens the fact that, and we reiterate this target that we have already given to the market and which is also aligned with GMR and our partner to have positive free cash flow generation at GMR Airports level by the end of the decade and potentially dividend distribution at the end of the decade. That is confirmed regardless of the CapEx that may occur in Hyderabad. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Andrew Lobbenberg of Barclays. Your line is open , please go ahead.
Hi, there. I just wondered whether you could give any comments on the announced ATC strike for tomorrow. It's obviously not a complete shock for a French ATC to go on strike in July. Are you expecting a worse or better season this year? Just whether you can offer any comments on some of the volatility we've seen around the discussion of potential increased taxes on aviation, which I think were out there in the market and then were slightly downplayed by the Prime Minister's Office yesterday, I think. Thanks.
Yes, thanks, Andrew. Regarding the strikes that will occur in the days to come, it's clearly too early to tell how the cancellation could be reported or how it could be delayed or how the traffic could be oversplit over the days ahead. Clearly, yes, too early to see the consequences of the movement. All in all, once again, it's not something that would lead us to change our guidance. We confirm our annual guidance, so no expected impacts. We are always confident about our annual levels. At this stage, no expected impacts regarding this specific strike that will occur in the days to come. Regarding your second question, yes, on the tax. Indeed, you know that we have gone through important tax increases over the past few months. We mentioned today the surplus regarding income tax, which is a temporary tax at this stage.
You also know the impacts we have gone through because of the long-distance infrastructure tax. For this, we have managed to offset all the regulated impact of this tax. That is to say 75% of the total amount, total amount estimated at EUR 130 million. We have offset it through two tariff increases in 2024 and 2025. There has been also the impact on the ticket prices. Here, it is more an indirect effect for us because it can have an impact on the traffic level if the ticket prices are deemed too high by passengers. For the moment, once again, we have not, at our level, seen any major impact on the volume of traffic. It is maybe not the case for regional airports and smaller airlines. There have been some rumors in the press indeed that there could be a new evolution regarding a new increase of taxes.
Clearly, here again, sorry, but it's too early to tell. It's just a rumor in the press at this stage. Of course, we will monitor the situation because this is something that has clearly an impact on our account. We will monitor during all the process of the negotiation of the Finance Act.
Thank you.
Thank you. That was our last question. I will now hand it back to Cécile Combeau for closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you. So we can indeed close this call. Thank you all again for joining us on short notice. I will briefly remind that the pilot period will start on Monday, July 7. As indicated earlier during the call, we intend to host tomorrow with Elliott the usual groups of pre-clause call, which is scheduled at 11:00 A.M. The objective, as you know, is to remind all key public information and business strengths before entering the quiet period. The results themselves will be published on the 30th after market close, and the conference call with management will be held on the following day, July 31 at 11:00 A.M. Paris time. With that, I thank you again for having logged to this call and wish you a good day. Thank you.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.