Hello, welcome to the Groupe ADP 2023 half year presentation. My name is Holly, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded. For the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only. You will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero, and you'll be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you, good evening, everyone. I am Cécile Combeau, Head of Investor Relations at Groupe ADP, and with me are Augustin de Romanet, Chairman and CEO, Edward Arkwright, Deputy CEO, and Philippe Pascal, CFO. After going through some prepared remarks about our first half results, we will open the line to Q&A. In order to allow a greater number of you to dialogue with the management, I would like to kindly ask you, please, to limit your questions to one or two each time you get the line. As a reminder, certain information to be discussed on today's call is forward-looking and is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For these, I refer you to the disclaimer statement included in our press release and on slide 42 of our presentation. With that, let me hand it over to our Chairman and CEO, Augustin de Romanet.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Hello, guys. Thank you, Cécile. Good evening. Thank you for joining us to talk about our first half results. Let's move directly to slide three with the highlights. The half-year performance is in line with our expectations. We are posting EUR 2.5 billion revenue, up to 26.9% compared to last year. EBITDA is up to 22.9% to EUR 863 million, representing a margin of 33.9% of revenues, in line with our forecasts. Net result is up +31.8% to EUR 211 million. We've improved our net debt to EBITDA ratio to 4.3 x EBITDA. All of our traffic assumptions, forecasts, and financial targets for 2023/2025 are confirmed.
We're keeping a strong focus on deploying our 2025 Pioneers strategic roadmap, acting to decarbonize our industry and prepare for the upcoming sports events organized in Paris later this year. I want to speak about Rugby World Cup, mainly, and next year. Looking at traffic in the first half on slide four, we see traffic developing just in line with our assumptions, both in Paris and internationally. Recovery rate against 2019, sorry, stands at 97.3 for the group, representing a growth of 30.3% against the first half of 2022. In Paris, traffic grew +25.7% compared to the first half 2022. We welcome more than 47 million passengers in the last six months, representing 90% of 2019 level.
Travelers are flocking to our airports this summer, and on certain peak days, we will have exceeded 2019 traffic in Paris Orly, and we will be getting close to 2019 record levels at Paris- Charles de Gaulle as well. Everybody can count on all Groupe ADP employees and the entire airport community, who are fully mobilized to welcome passengers in the best conditions possible. This leads me to slide five, with a focus on the initiatives deployed in Paris for this summer. As you know, hospitality is very important for us. It's our priority. Our airports need to be efficient at every stage of checks and formalities, and pleasant in terms of contact with reception staff and while you wait in the boarding lounge. At the same time, we have a wonderful challenge with the upcoming major sport events.
I've already talked about the Rugby World Cup in 2023, for sure, the Olympics next year. They provide a unique opportunity to showcase our expertise in terms of performance of our operations and infrastructure for peak management. Therefore, to meet these challenges, we are putting in place additional resources, human, organizational, and equipment. I will just give you two examples. First, we've redesigned the queues, especially the queues for the control of passports, deployed additional workers to better support and guide passengers to the queues dedicated to them. Second, we've carried out preventive maintenance on our luggage systems asked our service providers to increase the number of maintenance technicians, especially during the weekends. Moving on slide six, with some example of projects commissioned in the last few months and ongoing.
I will highlight, in particular, the work that is underway in Orly to build the future multimodal station, which will notably accommodate the extension of metro Line 14 and the future Line 18. With Line 14, operational in June 2024, it will take only 25 minutes to travel to the center of Paris from Paris Orly. We consider that this will be a game changer to access to Orly, which is currently 80% by road. Within this future multimodal station, we opened in April 2023, a new car park with more than 2,000 parking spots, and the former underground car park has been closed at the same time. All in all, more than half of our capital expenditure program is devoted to maintaining our assets and ensuring regulatory compliance.
Two recent examples of that are, first, the upgrade of the luggage sorting system for the terminal one in Paris-Charles de Gaulle, that started operations at the reopening of the terminal. Second, the new firefighter station in Paris-Le Bourget Airport. You can see that on the right of the slide number six. Last highlight, I would like just to tell a few words tonight about the launch of our new employee shareholding plan called Abelia. Following the authorization of shareholders, we have launched in June, a new employee shareholding operation. Its rollout will be phased in 2023 and 2024, Abelia is a two steps operation. First step, a free allocation of shares for each employee of the company. Second step, an offer to acquire shares on preferential terms for employees who are subscribed to the group saving plan. It means everybody will be able to do that.
This operation is fully part of 2025 Pioneers roadmap, in which we have set an objective to carry out at least one employee shareholding operation by 2025. Our objective, for sure, is indeed to develop a new culture of value sharing, involving employees in the company's performance. Speaking about performance, it's now the time to give the floor to Philippe Pascal, who will comment more in detail our first half financial results.
Thank you. Thank you, Augustin, and good evening, everyone. Let's move on to slide nine, focusing on traffic in Paris. Traffic, continue to recover in line with our assumption. Traffic with mainland France show a lower recovery, mainly due to closure of several domestic routes compared to before, COVID crisis. Traffic stood at 76% of 2019 in the first half, 74 recovery in Q1, and 76 in Q2. Traffic with Europe has recovered very well to 93% of 2019 traffic in the first half. We saw an acceleration in the second quarter, and traffic with Schengen was nearly at full recovery in Q2 with 99%. For international traffic, this traffic stood at 92% of 2019.
North America had reached 101% in Q1, weakened a bit in Q2. It stood at 99% overall in the first half. Traffic recovery with Asia-Pacific is gradual, as expected, mainly due to the slow recovery of traffic with China, which is at 15% of 2019. There are currently 34 flights per week, compared to 93 flights per week in 2019. We continue to expect an acceleration in recovery of China traffic from the end of the year, but probably more in 2024. Slide 10. If we look at how this traffic translates into our retail business in Paris, we see that performance continued to be strong. Sales per pax reached EUR 29.6 in the first half, confirming the structural improvement driven by the deployment of Extime.
Illustrating that Sales /PAX in the new international area of Terminal 1 is now greater than that of Terminal 2E or K, which is also reaching record level. In fact, in the second quarter, both they are well above EUR 60 per departing passenger, EUR 64 in Terminal 2E or K, and EUR 69 in Terminal 1. On the right side on this slide, you can also see the latest development regarding the rollout of Extime, notably with the launch of the new Extime.com. Digital shopping included click and collect and the new Extime Rewards program. We can also see Extime Media, now operational and launch the operation for 11 years until December 2034, under the new brand name that is Extime JCDecaux Airports.
Lagardère was selected as a partner of ADP in the JV, that is, will operate travel essential business for 10 years, starting in 2024. Moving on to slide 11 for our two main international assets. On the left of this slide, overall recovery of TAV Airports stand at 95.8% of 2019 level, with this remarkably strong passenger traffic at Almaty. This reflects an increase in both outbound and inbound tourism and business in Kazakhstan. On the right side, GMR Airports' traffic stand at 108.4% recovery. In Indian airports, this strong recovery continued to be driven by domestic traffic, standing at 114% of 2019 levels. Goa Airport opened on January 5th, 2023, and welcomed more than 1.6 million passenger in the first half.
Moving on to slide 12. By nature, our activities are seasonal with a stronger H2, that is very important to understand. As you can see on the left-hand graph, in Paris, we historically welcome on average, around 48% of the passenger in the first half and 52 in the second half. This seasonal effect is even stronger in Turkey, in line with tourism season. On the right of this slide, we can see that retail activities are also subject to seasonality, with 53% of the volume of sales in our airshops, airside shops made in the second half of the year. Post-COVID, as activity recovers, we see in the airlines offering a trend that concerns the seasonality effect, which could further improve performance in the second part of this year. Slide 13. Getting back to our financial performance.
In the first half, we have a solid growth in all P&L indicators, an expected move down in EBITDA margin and control net debt to 4.3 x EBITDA. I propose to move directly to slide 13 for more details on our revenue first. Slide 13, revenue reached EUR 1.2 billion in the first half of this year, up 27% versus last year, which was still affected by restriction linked to COVID in the first quarter of 2022. Driven by the traffic recovery in Paris, the aviation segment revenue is up 24% year-on-year. The retail and services segment is up at 1% versus H1 2022, helped by the strong Sales/ PAX in addition to traffic.
Real estate segment is up 8% versus H1 2022, with additional rents from assets taken overall in a full ownership last year. Abroad, the growth of TAV Airports has been strong, driven by both its airport assets and its services company. Almaty Airport in Kazakhstan grew EUR 53 million, driven by the strong traffic momentum I had mentioned earlier. Moving on to slide 15, with EBITDA standing at EUR 863 million, up 23 compared to H1 2022. EBITDA growth is driven by the recovery of traffic, impacting positively our revenue. At the same time, and in line with our previous comments, we are seeing an increase in our OpEx basis. Expenses linked to consumable are up EUR 93 million.
Nearly half of this increase is due to Almaty, where the cost of purchasing of fuel grew massively compared to last year. The external services. For the external services costs, evolution remain commensurate with traffic growth, up for EUR 124 million. Going forward, as some of our contracts are being renewed this year, we expect to see some pressure on this side of the P&L for the next months and the next year. Staff costs increased by EUR 112 million versus H1 2022, reflecting the first effects of the recruitment made in 2022, and ongoing in 2023, as well our salary measure in Paris and at TAV. TAV, as well in a inflationary context.
We expect pressure on our OpEx to continue in 2024 and 2025, notably due to the renewal of some of our purchasing contracts from 2024, including new energy contracts. We expect to also reinforcement of our staff base of hospitality and operational resilience purpose. In all, EBITDA margin for the first half, 2023, stand at 33.9%, reflecting the combined effect of business seasonality, but also the trend in OpEx and a normalization of Almaty's performance after a particularly strong year in 2022. Below EBITDA, on slide 16, amortization and impairment increased by EUR 40 million, driven by the increase in amortization of airport operating rights for several airports at TAV, as they are amortized according to the level of traffic.
Our share of result is associate and JVs is down EUR 12 billion, mainly due to the deterioration of the contribution for GMR Airports, reflecting the reinstatement of concession fees payments for Delhi Airport after the two years fourth measure period during this payment has been stopped. Financial result is down for EUR 18 million compared to H1 2022, including an increase of gross cost of debt of TAV Airports for EUR 17 million. Income tax increased by EUR 51 million, including a EUR 28 million increase in unrecognized deferred tax assets, resulting in an effective tax rate of 33% in H1. We paid more tax because we have good, a better result. The share of net income attributable to minority shareholder had an impact of EUR 24 million.
In all, net income stand at EUR 211 million, up 31.8% versus H1 2022. Moving on to slide 17, you can see on this bridge, the main items explaining the evolution in our net debt. In addition to the usual cash outflows, which are the dividend payments for EUR 309 million and CapEx for EUR 353 million, this semester, we add two specific cash outflow. First, one is the subscription of FCCB, Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds, for EUR 331 million, issued by our Indian partner. This loan is part of the merger project announced in March between GIL and GAL, we get at 6.76% interest from this loan.
The second cash outflows is EUR 190 million upfront payment made by TAV to the State Airports Authority, representing 25% of the rent for Ankara concession. As of 13 June, net debt is just above EUR 8 billion, showing good control with a ratio of 4.3 x EBITDA. With that, I will hand back to Augustin de Romanet. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Philippe. To close this presentation, I would like to give you a few comments on our outlook, starting with our guidance. Slide 19, you see that our traffic assumptions and financial guidances for 2023 are unchanged. First, we continue to expect traffic in Paris up to 93% of 2019, and for the group, at a level close to 2019 traffic. Second, EBITDA guidance. It is still between 32%-37% of revenue, reflecting seasonality of the business, with EBITDA margin in the second half of the year expected to be higher than the first half. Third, dividend policy of 60% payout, with a minimum of EUR 3 per share.
Fourth, our guidance for CapEx is around EUR 1.3 billion per year on average, between 2023 and 2025, of which EUR 900 million for ADP SA only. These CapEx tend to be back end loaded, We expect CapEx to remain below this average this year with a ramp up in the following years. All other financial objectives for 2023, 2025 are maintained. Last, I would like to highlight our continued focus on acting for low carbon aviation on slide 20. As you know, the decarbonization of aviation is our license to grow.
at the Paris Air Show, we've presented several experiments currently underway, some of which we hope to deploy before the Paris Olympics. The 2024 Paris Olympics is indeed a wonderful opportunity for Groupe ADP to accelerate actions, contributing to its long-term vision, not only in terms of quality of service and passenger experience, as we've seen earlier, but also in terms of decarbonization of the sector. To illustrate that, I will mention two things. First, the launch of Hydrogen Airport, the engineering and consulting joint venture we launched with Air Liquide to help airports all around the world integrate hydrogen projects within their infrastructures. The second illustration is the operational progress towards the launch of eVTOL services by summer 2024. eVTOL are electric aircraft with vertical takeoff and landing, which will allow new uses, especially for medical purposes.
With that, Philippe, Edouard, and myself will be happy to answer to your questions. You can open the line for Q&A.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star two. Our first question comes from Elodie Rall with JP Morgan.
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I'll limit them to 2. First of all, in terms of the fact that you're seeing some increasing cost pressure from upcoming renewals of contracts, does that mean that you'd consider increasing tariffs again in 2024 and 2025 to offset the cost pressure? That's my first question. My second question is on the outlook for traffic. I mean, we've seen some weakness in June across the space, mostly because of airlines, I think, focusing on yields and cutting capacity. I was wondering what your views are about, you know, the structural impact from the airline's position, and if you think that could, you know, alter traffic recovery in the midterm. Thank you.
Thank you, Elodie, for these two questions. Your first question about the increasing cost and the consequences about the tariff. As you know, in the re-regulated scope, we have a cap in term of value creation. The cap is the level of regulated WACC, but we don't know exactly the level because it's a decision of the regulator. The question, it's not just the fact that with an increasing cost, we create some room of maneuver to have a tariff increase. The question, it's the comparison between the regulated share and the regulated WACC.
As you know, we have a strong recovery, and all in all, we have to check before to say if it's possible to increase the tariff or not. What is the good level of our regulated growth share for the next year and the year after, and what is the level of the regulated WACC, what we can try to estimate from the French regulator? It's the increase of cost, it's not a guarantee to increase the tariff. It's more complex due to the other factors like CapEx level, like treasury position and so on. It's not mechanic.
For your second question about traffic, for the moment, we don't see any structural impact in Paris. We have a good dynamic, and we can see that for the moment. We expect a very good summer, and in line with our assumption and in line with our guidance. Thank you for this question.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu with UBS.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe the first one on the OpEx in Paris, it seems that in the first half, it came a bit higher than the consensus expectations. Maybe can you help us simplify a little bit? What's the sort of delta in OpEx in Paris this year versus last year or next year versus 23? Could you give us a bit of a range once you add up together all the headwinds, what are we talking about? Just to sort of in the interest of transparency and simplifying a bit the picture there. Secondly, maybe, I think there's this cost allocation regulatory review, and I believe a decision from the regulator is expected in January 2024.
Could you elaborate a little bit on your expectations at this stage? Is it reasonable to assume there may be some regulated cost move to the non-regulated perimeter? Thank you.
Thank you, Cristian. two questions. First, about OpEx. In fact, we have a higher OpEx that is due to several factors. First, it's what you have to have in mind is the fact that before this year, we don't have any impact about inflation, and now we can observe a good dynamic when you have a renewable in term of contracts, but I explained during the presentation, that is very important for that.
The second point is the fact that we have a kind of normalization now, due to the fact that we have a higher performance in 2022, due to the fact that we have a strong recovery, but not a strong recruitment plan in 2022. We recruit a lot in 2022 and during the year 2022, and we continue to recruit in 2023, but we have also an impact in a full year basis. In terms of staff costs, to give you more color about that, we have a recruitment in 2022 for around 530 people. Around 100 people have also retired of resign, natural attrition, so, and we have to replace that.
We have also implemented salary increase, in, as explained in previous quarter, we for around, in the first step, EUR 14 million impact in the first half for ADP mother company. We continue to have a normal increase, a mechanic increase, due to our roles in our company. Measure implemented in July, represent around EUR 4 million impact in H2. In full year basis, around EUR 8 million. We continue to recruit, and our recruitment trajectory is exceeding our initial expectation, notably because we see the need to reinforce staffing in preparation of the big sport event, and we need some to reinforce our operational teams to have more resilience.
This will impact our staff cost base, I can confirm our guidance in term of OpEx per pax for 2024 and 2025. I can also confirm the guidance of margin for 2024 and 2025. 2023, 2024 and 2025, obviously. Have in mind that at TAV, we have also staff cost increase driven by a salary increase and by the strong inflation. The salary increase for TAV, it's around 65 million EUR. We have also an increase in term of staff in TAV for 11 million EUR. All in all, well, we clearly, we have a dynamic in term of OpEx. We confirm that.
We can see for the first time this dynamic, we confirm at the same time our guidance. For the first allocation system, as I explained previously, we have workshops with all the airlines, and this workshop provide an opportunity to make sure that each allocation key can factually be explained or justified by one operational basis. We have 10 workshop with all the airlines to explain allocation key by allocation key. That is a huge work. Now, we have to put on the table a proposal for our tariff homologation, and in this proposal, we include in the overall tariff homologation our correction in term of cost cost allocation. For the moment, we don't expect a huge impact.
We have some correction, obviously, to try to check, but for the moment, we don't expect a huge change. Remember that it's not a decision of the French regulator to accept or to refuse our cost allocation system. It's a global decision about our tariff homologation. Globally, in this item, we have to wait also a few months, but we are globally confident.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Andrew Lobbenberg with Barclays.
Hi there. Can I ask about the recovery of the Chinese traffic, which is obviously important for retail? I think that becomes a bit political because the airlines are trying to manage the pace of the recovery of traffic rights for the Chinese. How do you see this thing playing out? You know, how hungry are you? How confident are you that you'll get back the high-spending Chinese passengers? Can I ask just more broadly about the Olympics? Obviously, you spoke about needing to employ staff and undertake some costs, but obviously, it's extremely prestigious for you guys to handle the Olympic traffic, but will it be profitable?
Thank you for your question. First question about the China, traffic. Traffic with China is developing in line with our expectation. We expect an acceleration in the few months. We are currently, as I said, only 34 flights per week. But until 10th June, it was only 70 flights per week. Load factor is just below 80%.
It was only 16 flights per week.
16 flights, excuse me, 16 flights. Going forward, Chinese airlines may open additional routes, and we expect Air France to more progressively ramp up its capacity, if it's possible for Air France. Nevertheless, we still do not expect a full recovery in 2023, but also in 2024, notably because of continuing constraints on demand. The tourism industry has been massively disrupt, and it takes time for Chinese people to renew their passport and obtain a visa. Hotel price have and travel package have also been subject to inflation, which we expect to weigh somewhat on demand. We hope the Paris Olympics will help accelerating the return of Chinese passenger.
For the traffic of Olympic Games, we don't expect a huge rebound in term of traffic during this event. When you check historically, the former Olympic Games, we can see that we have kind of a substitution. We have a good international traffic, but we have less other traffic due to the fact that the downtown is very crowded. For the impact of Chinese traffic with the sales per pax, for the moment, we can see the strong dynamic in terms of sales per pax. We strong dynamic on in term of sales per pax without Chinese traffic.
What we know, when you see our guidance in terms of sales per pax, we can see a target in 2025. We expect some bad impact. For example, the works in Terminal 2E and the reopening of Terminal 2E and Terminal 2C. Also, we expect some offset of this bad impact in the favorable impact, that is the recovery of the Chinese traffic. All in all, for the moment, we can make the call, but without Chinese traffic, we have a strong performance, Chinese traffic is just an upside. In terms of custom, due to.
So, uh, due, due to the Olympics, uh, we, um, uh, we, we, we, we need some, uh, additional, uh, CapEx, but we have in our gui- guidance, um, in the envelope of the CapEx disclosed, uh, previously, we have enough, uh, elements to, uh, to implement our plan. Uh, we, and we can confirm our guidance, uh, about that. In term of OpEx level, uh, we, uh, we, uh, we can confirm that we, uh, we, our guidance in term of, uh, uh, OpEx per pax, uh, with, uh, the impact of, uh, Olympic Games and, uh, the obviously, we have some, uh, some impact, uh, due to the fact that we have to welcome, uh, all the, uh, the guys who, uh, for, for the Olympic, uh, with a specific measure. Thank you for your question.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Dario Maglione with BNP Paribas Exane.
Hi, good afternoon. two questions. One on GMR. You mentioned the very airport and the concession payments that made a really start. Can you tell us a bit more about what's going on and the regulation there? Second question on cost, sorry to ask you again about this topic. Just as a simple kind of rule of thumb, OpEx in Paris for H2, should be similar to H1, or is there, like, any significant increase that we should keep in mind, apart from the increase in salary that you mentioned around the EUR 8 million from 1st of July? Thanks.
Thank you for this two question. About GMR. As you know, during the COVID crisis, GMR stopped to pay the concession in the Delhi Airport. Now, after the end of this crisis, we paid the concession of this year. We have a bad impact for around EUR 40 million. It's not a really bad impact, we have a favorable impact before, during the crisis, and now we restart the concession fees. In fact, we have a dynamic in term of recruitment, and when we recruit, we recruit for a long time.
Mechanically, the recruitment in 2022 and obviously the additional recruitment in 2023, have an impact for the next months. We can have a full year basis, we have this impact. We a part of the Accor hotel team plan, it's due to the our needs in term of hospitality and our needs in term of measurement. We have to assume the fact that we have to increase the month staffing, and we have also to delivering our CapEx plan.
This element, plus the fact that we have to improve strongly our hospitality, due to the current event, all these elements have a consequence in term of staff cost.
Sorry, quick one. On the concession payment in Delhi, do you also need to pay the concession payment during COVID period?
We have a claim for during COVID period, and we expect a favorable decision, but for the moment, the litigation, it's ongoing.
Okay, thanks.
Our next question from Ashish Khetan with Citigroup.
Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to understand the key drivers for the increase in SPP. It has increased to EUR 29.6 this first half, what are your expectations going into the second half? My second question related to that is, given that we are already at 29.6 this first half, why are we not planning to increase the guidance for 2025? Thank you.
Thank you for your question. The main explanation of the good performance of the SPP is obviously the implementation of Extime. It also as a good performance, it's in the beauty goods, but also we have some small impact in term of inflation. It's not a huge impact, and for the moment, it's we have a good organic performance. Remind that the good performance, it's for a large part in Terminal 2E, but also in Terminal 1, that is a new terminal. At the same moment, we, Terminal 2E and 2C are closed.
We merge all the quality of the traffic in the better place to in term of retail performance. For the second half, globally, we can assume the fact that we can stabilize this good performance for all the years. For the next year, as I said, we have some works in Terminal 2E. We have also to reopen the terminal 2E and 2C, 2A and 2C in the second half of 2024. We have a favorable impact if we have a good recovery in term of Chinese traffic, a progressive recovery during 2023 and 2024.
For the moment, we don't change our guidance due to the fact that we have to check this specific element in a volatile macroeconomic context. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question is from Achal Kumar, with HSBC.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to understand two, I have two questions, actually. First of all, in terms of traffic, I mean, you know, so the connecting traffic I can see has gone down recently, and then, of course, we see ITA is going to Lufthansa. What kind of impact do you see? I mean, I'm sure ITA must have been flying connecting traffic to your Paris airports, but now, of course, that could shift once Lufthansa takes over to German airports. How do you see the connecting traffic? Recently, of course, you know, the Paris government has banned all the very short-haul flights.
So what kind of impact do you see on the traffic from that side? My second question is about the retail spend per passenger. I mean, how do you see the growth? I mean, is the growth coming from inflation, or is there a support from the currency? So if you could break your growth in retail spend per pax, that'd be very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you for your question. In fact, reminder that in term of connecting traffic, we are in a different position compared to Fraport. difficult to compare the Air France hub with the Lufthansa hub. The fact is, in Paris, we have just in Paris- Charles de Gaulle, a third of the traffic that is a connecting traffic, compared to Fraport, that is more than 70%. In fact, we have not recover all the connecting traffic compared to 2019.
It's mainly due to the fact that we all the airlines try to concentrate all the plane in the most lucrative flight and not to reopen all the possibility to connect in several destination. It's quite a good thing, because we have a strong airlines and we have a strong destination. In fact, in the next year, we have probably bad consequence about the modernization of traffic management, that is traffic management system, that is for flight.
It's a new system for ATC and to implement this new system, we probably, the authority have to cut for several days part of the traffic. We don't know exactly what is the level of this element. We see that perhaps we can concentrate this element in, not in the most contributive destination, but concentrate in a domestic flight, for example.
Globally, for the moment, we have some assumption in term of traffic. We don't change this assumption, because all in all, we can see that, for the moment, with the element that we have from the Civil Aviation, we can assume our assumption.
Okay. In terms of retail, spend per passenger, if you could please give a comment on that?
Yes, excuse me, for your second question. The part of inflation or the part of ex, FX, effects, it's not a huge part. We, it's difficult to modelize. In fact, part of the increase of SPP is probably due to this effect. Clearly, we can see a strong organic effect due to, due to our, due to the inflation of Extime, but also due to the quality of our offerings. Yes, we have, but difficult to quantify that, probably not so huge.
Okay, thank you.
Our next question is from Eric Lemarié with CIC.
Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I got two, actually. The first one, well, you mentioned the efforts in term of hospitality for the Olympic Games in 2024, with some impact, if I understand properly, on OpEx. Should we expect some reversal effect after the Olympic Games, maybe in H2 2024 or in 2025, so positive impact on OpEx after the Olympic Games? My second question on real estate, should we expect the fair value of investment property that you disclose to decline in 2003 due to the current yield environment? You know, the rates increasing.
Thank you for these two questions. To start with the second question, remind that in our real estate, we have offices, but we have also cargo. When you see the demand in term of hangar, we can see that we have a strong demand with a strong revenue at the end of the day, so a very favorable impact in term of fair value, and more than the bad impact in term of offices. Globally, we expect stable or slight increase in term of fair value, but as you know, it's difficult to modelize and to have a forecast about that.
In term of Olympic Games, in term of CapEx, it's a heritage CapEx, it's not we just accelerate part of investment plans. We disclose that it's in our guidance, no issue. In term of OpEx, in fact, we have a one-off effect. For the moment, we don't disclose the figures, we have, not probably, we have a one-off effect due to the fact that we have to rent a part of equipment for a specific infrastructure, we have a one-off due to just to the operational needs.
In this element, we have also a structural effect, not due to the Olympic Games, but with the fact that we want to improve strongly our hospitality in our airport. At the same moment, it's not linked by the Olympic Games, when we speak about queuing, we speak about specific passenger experience. All in all, we try to accelerate this improvement after the Olympic Games. This part, that is not a small, that is a small part of the total of our peg OpEx, it's structural. Sorry, I can give you some figures, but globally, the huge part of the impact of OpEx for the Olympic Games, it's a one-off.
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you.
Our next question is from Manish Beria with Société Générale .
Yeah, hello, hi. Thanks for giving me the opportunity. One question could be the international assets that we build. We have never talked about, so what is our hurdle rate, I mean, because some of the companies in the sector says, like Fraport, or like, they have an internal target of, like, double-digit IRR from these international investments. I was just wondering if internally, also, ADP has some sort of targets, internal targets of return like that. The second is also on the international asset. How do we try to monetize this? It's like more collecting dividends over the years, or at some point, we could also look to sell some of the assets, I mean, if you get a good price?
Thank you for this question. Globally, when we go to the international development, is to create value more than impact, first point. Second point, we don't disclose all the IRR, but what we can say is the fact that we have two very good investment, that is TAV. All in all, but also with the new prolongation of concession in Antalya, in Ankara and so on. A good perspective for a long time in TAV, with a very good IRR compared to the global performance of the company. We have a relative impact in terms of profitability due to the TAV.
It's also the case, in our business plan, not for the moment, but in our business plan for the GMR, for GMR Airport. Globally, for the moment, we expect, we have a strong CapEx plan in Delhi and Hyderabad. All in all, we know that at the end of the day, we have a very favorable impact in and a good contribution. For the other asset, in fact, we, when you see the year before, we can see that we stopped some development. We sell, we stop, for example, in Mauritius, we sell in Connexie. So we manage our portfolio to have the better performance. So for the...
That is our policy. We are not a firm, so we are not here to create a huge capital gain to the fact that we buy and after we sell the airport, we have an industrial partner, and we try to create value for the long time in our asset. For the moment, what is very clear when we can see also in our communication, is the fact that the both platform, TAV and GMR, are a key point for the international development.
Just on the India, I mean, like, if you see, the Delhi Airport, I mean, the way it is designed, I mean, the 75% of non-commercial revenue goes away because you have a concession fee that is 45%, then 30% goes to calculation of the regulated asset base, I mean. It is very difficult to create value. I mean, that could be very good growth, but in terms of cash flow, I mean, it's very difficult, even if you have very strong traffic there. And if you see the listed entity that trades at a very, very high multiple, it can even get higher at some point in time. Why not sell it, I mean, when the dividend collection will be very less, I mean?
I'm just trying to see, I mean, if you get a good opportunity, let's say, at some point in time, will you look into this factor of monetizing it, if the dividends will not be enough, let's say, or will not satisfy, the required returns?
Just remind that we have both Delhi and Hyderabad. In Hyderabad, we have a strong regulation framework, and we can create value. In fact, for the moment, we invest a lot to expand the airport. In terms of cash flow, it's not so good. Also in Delhi, we expand a lot. In fact, in Delhi, the regulation is different, and it's difficult to, at the end of the day, to create value, but we have the real estate. Real estate, it's very performance activities in Delhi. All in all, for the moment, we are very confident with our partner, GMR family, that we can create value in this both asset.
In fact, you're right, for the moment, we have a CapEx plan, we have a good perspective, but we are not here to buy and to sell.
Okay, thanks. Thanks for your answers.
Our next question is from Cristian Nedelcu with UBS.
Hi, thank you for allowing me to ask one more question. Just doing the back of the envelope map for the second half of the year, it looks like consensus is putting in 94% traffic recovery versus 2019, with a 37% EBITDA margin. Do you feel comfortable with this type of scenario, or you think it's reasonable to be a bit conservative for the second half, having in mind the way that the first half turned out? Thank you.
To be clear, we have a specific slide about seasonality. It's the good answer for your question. The fact, if it's difficult to appreciate the full year performance, just with the H1. First point. The second point, in fact, we have some element in term of OpEx, but we confirm at the same time our guidance. We confirm our guidance in term of sales per pax, in term of, excuse me, OpEx per pax and in term of margin. All in all, in term of traffic, we've also confirmed our guidance, that is up to 93%.
Globally, we can see a good trend, and we can see that when we confirm our guidance, it's the reason why we believe in term of performance for this year.
Understood. Yep. Thank you.
There are no further questions, so I'll hand you back to your host to conclude today's conference.
It's getting late, we are aware it's an extremely busy period for all of you with all the results publication. Thank you everyone for having logged to our conference. Our next quarterly publication will be on October 25th, with the nine-month revenue. In the meantime, we will be attending several conferences to meet you, and we are looking forward to that. Feel free as well to get in touch with us, Investor Relations team, Elliot and myself, for any follow-up question. I wish you a good evening, everyone, and a beautiful summer. Thank you!
Thank you for joining us.