Welcome to the Groupe ADP 2023 Nine-month Revenue Call. The conference is now open, and I leave the floor to Cécile Combeau, Head of Investor Relations.
Thank you, and good evening, everyone. So I am Cécile Combeau, Head of Investor Relations of Groupe ADP, and with me are Philippe Pascal, our CFO, and Christelle Jacquemet, Deputy CFO. Philippe will go through some prepared remarks before taking your questions with Christelle. In order to allow as many of you as possible to dialogue with the management, I would like to kindly ask you please, to limit your questions to 1 or 2 each time you take the line, and of course, you can queue again if you have additional questions. As a reminder, certain information to be discussed on today's call is forward-looking and is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For this, I refer you to the disclaimer statement included at the end of our press release and on slide 29 of our presentation.
With that, let me hand it over to Philippe.
So thank you, Cécile, and good evening, everyone. Let's jump directly to slide 2 with the highlights. Our consolidated revenue is standing at EUR 4.1 billion for the first 9 months, up 22% compared to 2022. We continue to see solid dynamics in all businesses, and we fully confirm our targets for 2023. As expected, our airports have been busy this summer. Retail's performance continued to be strong as well. We remain focused on preparing to host the Paris Olympics in 2024, and on the industrial and environmental transformation undertaken with our 2025 pioneer strategy roadmap. Regarding the most recent developments, as you know, we communicated the estimated impact of the new tax projected by the French government.
As indicated, for the regulated scope, a part of this tax revenue is being included in the business plan that we will base our next regulated tariff proposal. This is work in progress, and we expect to submit tariffs to the regulator in the coming weeks. Regarding the text of the bill itself and the parameter of the tax, discussion and amendment process continue at the Senate and could still result in changes to the text. The law must be voted and promulgated by the end of December, the latest. Slide three, we can see overall traffic evolution, which is in line with our expectation.
Traffic is growing at a faster pace in international asset, +26% compared to the last year, leading to a recovery of 101% against 2019. At group level, traffic is growing to +24%, and recovery stands at 97.9% in the first 9 months. In Paris, we welcomed close to 76 million passengers since the beginning of the year, up 18% compared to 9 months, 2022. This represents a recovery of 91.4% versus 9 months, 2019. In Q3, traffic was up 8% compared to Q3 2022. On this basis, we are confident to end up the years with a recovery level in the upper part of our assumption, up to 93% in Paris. Continue to focus on Paris on slide 4.
Traffic with mainland France stand at 76% of 2019. This is in line with our expectation and reflects the closure of several domestic routes compared to before COVID crisis. Going forward, we expect low growth in domestic traffic. International traffic, which is the most accretive, stood at 93% of 2019, showing improvement compared to June. As expected, driven notably by the acceleration of traffic with China during the Q3. In Q3, traffic with China reached a recovery level of 37% compared to Q3 2019. We expect a further step up at the end of this year, with a projected winter schedule totaling 48 weekly flights for the end of November, to be compared to 34 weekly flights currently and 93 in 2019. Slide 5, looking at retail business in Paris.
Sales per pax was 29.7 euros in the first 9 months, with 30.2 euros in Q3. That is 3.6 euro more than last year, reflecting the positive impact of greater and improved offering of our Extime strategy, especially with the reopening of Terminal 1 new international area. In terms of rollout of Extime, the latest development is the good news this summer of the green light received from the French competition authority for the implementation of the partnership with SSP in Extime food and beverage. Going forward, as commented in previous quarter, we expect SPP to experience more pressure due to the staging and upgrading works in Terminal 2E or T that we will span of the next 2 years.
Next year, we will also have the reopening of Terminal 2E and 2C, that might slow SPP growth down. Accordingly, our sales per pax target for the moment, it's 29.7-29.5 EUR in 2025, and remains valid. Slide 6. We have a specific focus on our two main international assets, TAV and GMR. As a reminder, TAV numbers are fully consolidated in our accounts, and GMR Airports results are equity accounting. As you can see on the left side, TAV's traffic recovery stands at 97.8% of 2019 level. TAV's international assets perform well, with several having reached full recovery, especially Almaty, standing at 147% of 2019 traffic level.
TAV Airport in Turkey, we have a slower recovery on their domestic traffic, but there is offset by international traffic, reaching above 2019 traffic levels. This summer, TAV also conducted the sale of a part of its stake in Medina Airport. The net gain from this transaction is estimated at EUR 38 million in the net result attributable to the group. The airport remains consolidated under the equity method. On the right side of the slide, GMR Airport traffic stands at 107% recovery. In India, airport, the strong recovery is driven both by domestic traffic, standing at 111% of 2019 level, but also for international traffic, now nearly at the full recovery.
Regarding the merger between GMR Infrastructure Limited and GMR Airports Limited, the merger application has been fully approved by the Indian Stock Exchange and is now being reviewed by the National Company Law Tribunal. According to the schedule, we expect the completion of the merger during the H1 of 2024. Globally, all is under control. Moving on slide 7, our revenue reached EUR 4.1 billion for the first 9 months, up 22%, with revenue from all segments increasing. In Paris, continued traffic recovery drove aviation revenue up 18%, as well as retail and services revenue, up 27%, supported by consistently strong external sales per pax.
Revenue of real estate activity in Paris is up 8%, thanks to the additional rents from assets returns in full ownership in 2022 and new indexation in term of rent, rent. In the international business, revenue is up 27%, mainly driven by the nearly full recovery of TAV Airport, but also by the strong dynamic of the all the service services company of TAV, especially in ground handling, lounges, and food and beverage. To conclude, let's move to slide 9. We can see our assumption, our traffic assumption and financial guidance for 2023. We can co-confirm all our guidance and assumption. We continue to expect traffic in Paris up to 93% of 2019, and for the group between 95%-105% of the 2019 traffic.
For EBITDA guidance, we expect an EBITDA between 32%-33% of the revenue. Dividend policy, still the same, and 60% of EPS as a payout guidance, with a flow of EUR 3 per share. For investment, we expect around EUR 1.3 billion per year on average between 2023 and 2025, on which, EUR 900 million just for ADP mother company. Going forward, we continue to fully focused on our 2025 pioneer strategy roadmap, contributing to the ecological transition of our sectors. We are also working on our future capacity management plan for Paris. With a shorter perspective, we of course continue to get ready for the Olympics next year. With that, I propose now to go directly to the Q&A.
Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would like to kindly ask you to please limit your questions to 1 or 2 each time you take the line. Of course, you can queue again if you have additional questions. We will take our first question from Marco Weaver from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. It's Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Can you hear me?
Yes, sir. Very well.
Okay. Okay, I think, Marco would just tell me. Thank you for taking my question. So, I have a question on tariff. So you mentioned, getting ready to submit your proposal for next year. So, I mean, could you share with us a little bit of, your thoughts into what you're gonna propose? And in addition, what you're gonna have to, to do in term of tariff increase to offset, the tax going forward, and if you think all of this is possible in the context of competition? So that's my first question. And my second question is on, regulation. There is, again, I think a proposal from the, regulator to switch from dual till to profit sharing. Is it something you are...
Like, that could happen in your view for ADP or what's your thoughts on that? Thank you.
So thank you, thank you, Elodie, for your first question. So, about the new tax, just remember the impact of this new tax. We expect an impact around EUR 120 million for 2024, in a full year basis. With a pass-through of the regulation, regulated portion, we can also try to increase the tariff, but we have to submit our proposal directly for the French regulator. For the regulated part of the tax, we estimate that it's around EUR 90 million in terms of impact. We have to mechanically increase our tariff for around 6% globally.
It's not possible to increase our tariff for 6% in one shot due to the law and the French law, but we have to increase the tariff with moderation. So we try to increase for 24 part, the mid part of the impact, to try to offset the mid part of the regulated part of the tax. So the mid of EUR 90 million. For that, we have to convince all the airlines and after that, to submit our proposal for the regulators. That is, for the moment, the plan.
We have some, we are ongoing process, and due to the announcement of the tax the last September, we have some delays in our tariff submission process. But all in all, we try to submit probably during November. So for your second question, it's very clear for us. It is the French state who has the authority to determine the tariff structure of regulated airport. It's not at the end of the year. So, globally, the French regulator try to put some pressure about that. But, for the moment, to our knowledge, the change of the economic regulation of ADP is not in the agenda of the French government.
Great. Thank you. And can I just on the amount of tariff increase you need for next year to offset half of that EUR 90 million impact on EBITDA, can you just tell us what % increase you need to propose?
No. For the moment, we don't disclose that.
Okay. Thanks.
... Next question?
We will take our next question from Ruxandra Haradau-Doser from HSBC. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. On TAV, please, a large part of the consolidated debt will mature next year. What are the refinancing plans? In the current environment, could you consider new shareholder loans? And I think that also the shareholder loan from [Foreign Language] will mature next year. What will happen with this loan? Will it be rolled over? I understand that the bridge loan, Antalya Airport matures in H1 next year. What is the status on the discussions with the banks? Could you please give us a guidance for interest costs for Groupe [Foreign Language] next year? Thank you very much.
So, thank you, Roxandra, for your question. For our first question, so clearly, for us, for the moment, we have to deleverage TAV, and the part of the deleverage of TAV is to reimburse the loan of ADP. That is the plan. For the moment, TAV execute this plan and try to have a new guideline for that. And we are very confident for TAV to accelerate the deleveraging and to reimburse quickly the loan of ADP. For your second question about TAV in Antalya with Fraport. Clearly, it's an ongoing process. We have a huge discussion with all the bankers.
And, if it's possible, we have the capacity to have an extension of the bridge loan. So no issue for the moment on our side. For your third question about the interest cut for EDP. You know, for the moment, the interest cost, if we have to launch a new bond for new debt, that is not for the moment in our plan. We are for new debt from mother company, EDP mother company; we expect around 4%. But for the moment, we have, we don't have a need for that. We have enough cash. And, remember that, the existing cost of the existing debt is 2%.
So it's not in our interest to launch a new bond at 4% if we don't have a key reason for that. So globally, for the moment, we are happy with our cash. Thank you, Roxandra.
Thank you. Thanks. Thanks, Philippe.
New question-
We will take our next question from Graham Hunt, from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very, thank you very much for the questions. I'll just stick to 2. Maybe on China demand, you, you mentioned what you expect the flight schedule to look like in the winter, but do you have any sense of how that will develop in—as we go into 2024, taking it from that 48 you mentioned, up to, you know, how long should we expect that to take to get back to the, the 93, from 2019? And then on the second question, I think it, your Extime, conversion rate looked like it slowed a little bit in Q3. Still very strong, but maybe a little bit lighter than maybe you would have hoped.
Did you see any change in spending patterns across the platform during the quarter that would cause you additional concern? Thanks.
So for your first question, so traffic with China is developing in line with our expectation. It was at 37% recovery in the Q3. So as I explained, we expect an increase in term of flights per week in November to go to 38 flights. We do not expect a full recovery in 2024, notably because of a continuing constraint on demand. That is a key point for two aspects.
The first aspect is the fact that the tourism industry has been massively disrupted in China, and it takes time for Chinese people to renew their passport, obtain a visa, that is difficult, notably with the Chinese embassy, but also the French embassy in China. But we expect an improvement due to the fact that in 2024 we have the Olympics in Paris. And the second reason is the price of hotel, especially, but also for the travel package with a massive inflation, which we expect to weigh somewhat on demand. So globally, at this time, we are optimistic, but we don't expect a full recovery in 2024.
For the second question, if you want, Christine?
Okay. So, for your question on our possible slowdown in next time and possible concerns. So first of all, as mentioned by Philippe, we posted a strong performance in Q3. You can see the seasonality of the business. So it's quite classical that the performance in Q3 is a little bit lower than in previous quarter. But all in all, we had a very strong performance thanks to our strategy and particularly with, you know, the reopening of Terminal 1, which was consistently higher, and which is still higher than it was in Terminal 2E Hall K, with which was previously our flagship. Both terminals has performance above EUR 60 per pax, so strong performance.
But, indeed, there could be some possible headwinds looking forward, explaining the fact that we remain cautious for 2024 and 2025. First of all, the volatile macroeconomic context as always. And secondly, we also mentioned the works that started in April 2023 in Terminal 2A Hall K. So the objective is to transform and enlarge the next-gen duty-free areas to integrate the footprint of Terminal 1 in this Terminal 2E Hall K. So those works could have an impact on the SPP in the next 2 years. Also, could have no impact, but at this stage, we prefer to stay cautious.
And secondly, we are already mentioned it in the previous result that the reopening of Terminal 2 AC in 2024 could also have a dilutive impact on the retail performance. So all in all, we posted a very good performance in Q3, showing the robustness of our Extime model, but we stay cautious for the years to come.
Thank you very much. We'll take our next question from Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi there. Can I just come back on that, that retail? 'Cause I mean, I hear what you're saying about, Hall K and, and the reopening of two AC, but at the same time, you've got inflation, and you've got an increase in, Chinese traffic. So, I mean, doesn't it look incredibly pessimistic to expect your spend per pax to go down from here? Second question would be, just on the international assets, Oman. How does that trade, through the present instabilities, geopolitical instabilities? And what risks are there around that asset for you guys?
So for your first question about the retail, so I can confirm that Christelle explained, as we are for the moment, we are cautious. In fact, we have probably upside, as you say, and we have also probably some downside. So perhaps it's a little bit cautious, perhaps we have to change our guidance. Perhaps it's difficult to change. So for the moment, without a clear vision, we are still cautious, and we confirm that our guidance. But obviously, if we are right, we are very happy, yeah. But cautious, it's the tradition of the company.
For your second question, so the impact, if I understand well, is the impact of Israel conflict. For the moment, we don't expect a huge impact in Paris traffic with Israel and Lebanon was respectively 1 million passenger and 0.6 million passengers, so it's not so huge. So we don't see for the moment a clear impact about that. For our airport in Amman, the only two countries the Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally advise against traveling are Israel and Lebanon, but one can expect that the geopolitical situation in the region could have an impact on tourism to Jordan.
But it's a little bit early to see clearly if we have a good impact. For the moment, for Jordan, we are still cautious. So for the first question, we are cautious, and the second question, we are cautious. Thank you.
Thank you.
We will take our next question from Dario Maglione, from BNP Paribas Exane. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Two questions for me. One on GMR and the merger process.
... between GMR Infrastructure Limited and GAL. It should happen in H one. One of the aims of this transaction was to reveal the true value of ADP's stake. So maybe roughly speaking, how much should we expect ADP's stake will be worth after the completion of the transaction? Second question on the guidance for next year. It's a wide range, and of course, there is the kind of the new tax. Excluding the effect of the tax, do you expect to be more on the top or at the bottom of that 35%-38% range on EBITDA? Thanks.
Okay, for the first question, if I understand well, it's the impact of the reverse merger and globally also the level of share of ADP. So for the moment, we are 49%. Globally, at the end of the day, we have a decrease in our shares, but in a strong increase in the value, the valuation of the company. So globally, it's a good thing for ADP. The preparatory steps are developing in line with the planning, as you say, and we are confident that the merger can be completed in the H1 of 2025. But keep in mind that upon completion, we will record a non-cash expenses translating for 2.
First point, it's a change in economic interest of Groupe ADP, including the settlement of fraction clause and, as well as the liquidity premium. The second thing is the fact that the integration of the asset and liabilities of new GIL, the new company after the reverse merger, with expected net value at the date of merger. We expect that this net value will be negative. The asset and liabilities of new GIL that are taken into account in the calculation obviously exclude GAL, GMR Airports, but the liabilities include the FCCB granted by ADP. So the impact was estimated at around EUR 100 million on Groupe ADP net income from ordinary activities in March. That is the key point. We disclose that in our press release.
The exact amount will be determined, updated at the date of the reverse merger. For the moment, the treatment of the FCCB in GMR Infrastructure Limited account are still to be determined. So at the end of the day, current value of GIL, it's 2 or 3 times of the acquisition. So we are at the end of the day, we are shareholders and a huge shareholder of a large company. So it's a good deal. Thank you. For the guidance. So perhaps to have a global point of EBITDA guidance. We start by the traffic, and after that, we can have a point about the EBITDA margin guidance.
For the traffic, so, as I said, for 2023, what we can see, we can confirm that Paris traffic should reach the upper part of our assumption, so, close to, 93%. For 2024, our traffic assumption, it's unchanged at this stage, between 90% and 100% compared to 2019. We expect traffic to grow compared to 2023. So mechanically, so it's more than 2023. But, full recovery looks more like, in 2025, or perhaps 2026, but probably more in 2025. If you look at, what is missing to reach full recovery, for the moment, we, we, we have, a domestic traffic that is not, in, full recovery. It's, like 75%.
But also the international traffic, we don't have the full recovery of the international traffic. But, but for this, not for this traffic, we expect an increase, specifically for China, but mechanically for, for China, it's better than 2023. So globally, for traffic, we can now, if we understand well, modelize in the right manner. For the EBITDA margin. For the EBITDA margin, for 2023, we can confirm our EBITDA margin guidance between 32 and 37. We posted 33.9% margin in the H1 of 2023, and we expect for the H2 an EBITDA margin higher than the H1, driven by the seasonality, by the traffic, by the retail growth. So globally, we can see that we expect higher than 33.9%, but below than 37.
For 2024, we are currently in the progress of updating our budget for 2024. It's little bit early to quantify precisely, so we don't give you more color. But in the meantime, we can refer to our EBITDA margin range of 35%-38% for 2024-2025. But bearing in mind that it excludes any impact of the new tax, so this guidance is without the new tax, without the new tax. At this stage, and despite expected growth in traffic for 2024 EBITDA margin, we should mechanically be in the lower part of this range. So the lower part of the range of 35%-38%.
Due to the combination of the Olympic Games, first, it's not a surprise we take in our guidance, but we are still in our guidance due to the Olympic Games, but also the evolution of staff, the inflation in Paris, but obviously, also the inflation and the evolution of staff in Turkey. That is a key point. And finally, for the overall tax increase, it's not possible for the moment to have a clear view, clear view without our budget. But remember that our guidance is without tax and probably in, without tax, in the lower part of this range. So it's clear?
We will take our next question from Manish Beria, from Société Générale. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi there. My first question is on the regulated aviation business. Of course, I mean, you are taking 3 tax, three tariff hikes, not to cover the tax impact, 2 or 3 hikes to cover the tax impact. But in the meantime, there is also inflation. So how should we think about it? Like, you take the tariff hike to just cover the tax impact, and then the inflation feeds negatively to the evolution, I mean.
So, thank you for your question. So, just to summarize, if we can increase the tariff, we increase the tariff. But we have a cap, and you understand the different caps in our regulation, the cap in terms of the regulated WACC, the cap in terms of moderation, and the cap in terms of to cover the regulated OpEx by the regulated revenue, the aeronautical fees. So, our regulation does not provide for any direct pass-through mechanism from inflation to tariff.
We can ask for a tariff increase, obviously, and we try to ask, due to the fact that we expect an impact due to the inflation, due to the new tax in our regulated ratchet, that creates some room of maneuver to increase our tariff, but we have to be below the regulated WACC, calculated not by ADP, but by the regulators himself. So cost inflation, or any other effect that would put pressure on the regulated ratchet, could therefore provide room of maneuver, obviously. But we try to manage now, it's to increase the tariff due to the part of inflation and part of new tax.
Just to manage a trajectory in our tariff increase to be just below the cap, but not higher, because if we have higher than the cap, we don't have the homologation. So it's a little bit early to have the result of this debate. We have to have the debate with the airlines, and we have to also to submit our proposal in November for the French regulator.
Can I ask, like, what is the cap on the tariff hike each year that you can do?
We don't know. It's the French regulator has to clarify the position of the WACC, first of all. The second question is about the moderation, the second cap. The moderation, it's a subjective approach linked by the fact that if it's acceptable or not for the airlines. But we know that for Nice in France, the regulator accept 4.9% increase. So it's around between 4 and 5.
Okay. Mm-hmm. And then the second one is just on, like, is there any plan to monetize the international asset in the medium term or in the near term? I understand you are listing this Indian asset, I mean, the merger, that will reveal some value. But other than that, is there any more plan, I mean, to reflect more value for ADP or to monetize the value international assets?
... So two points about that. First, we are an industrial company, we are not a founder, so we are not here to monetize, we are just here to create value due to the operation of the airport. But second part of my answer, it's clearly that if we have a good window with a good opportunity, we monetize partially or totally. For example, now we TAV sell a part of TIBAH and GMR sell Cebu. And that is a good example. But we don't have a plan, our strategy is to deleverage TAV, to deleverage GMR, and to deleverage slightly ADP.
Okay, thank you. We'll take our next question from Nicholas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon, guys. Just a few from me. First, big picture, can you talk about the winter schedule? What you expect in terms of airline seat capacity, over the next 5 months? That's number one. Number two, just coming back on the retail, if you don't mind. I mean, on the positive side, supporting retail, we've had—so we had the Terminal 1 international opening, you've got China accelerating from a low level. What about inflation? I mean, and really about the impact of renovation from the 2G. At the end of the day, I'm not quite sure how big the impact is.
I mean, to be honest, can you help us understand a bit just how much of the terminal is genuinely closed for now, just for us to assess a little bit, the mathematically the impact? And then, again, on retail, I mean, Extime is more than duty-free. Can you talk a bit about the other drivers of growth? I mean, we see advertising is reaccelerating, food and beverage pretty good. Any specific comments there? And, very last point on, can you say a word on CapEx? Are you still very late in spending pattern? Are you holding up a little bit because of the concession tax discussions with the regulator? Just give us a little bit of a point of where you stand after a pretty soft H1 on spending. Thank you.
So, thank you. So, for the winter schedule, we have now a clear view about the winter schedule. We can see the seat capacity at Paris, and we can see that the seat capacity come down. But, that is clear for us, it's the fact that this impact, which is a slight impact, not so huge, is due to the deployment of ETC modernized traffic management system. This new system is called 4-Flight. And the French airport slot coordinator core published some information on his website with details regarding the exceptional capacity reduction that will occur from January and February 2024 in Paris area.
That is not so, we have an impact, but it's not so huge. Eventually, the objective of this new system is to increase traffic control efficiency, allowing for optimized routes, for decarbonization and so on. So all in all, at the end of the day, it's a good news for Paris in term of ETC. But in fact, what we-- when you see the winter schedule, we can see the reduction between the mid of January and the mid of February. But so, I think it's my answer. Yes. For the second question, Christine.
Yes. So, on FTT, and retail performance, so clearly in the performance to date, there is a path of conjuncture effect. You were speaking about inflation, so inflation has helped us a little bit over the past 2 months in our performance. The same for the FX rates. We know that it helped us in this path to reach this performance, but clearly it's difficult to quantify the precise impact of those conjuncture elements. But the big part of this performance is due to our Extime strategy. Looking forward, as you were mentioning, maybe there could still be this impact of inflation, but at the same time, we see also a sign of economic slowdown.
So, this could maybe lead to a slowdown the impact, the positive impact we had, thanks to inflation. So this is a reason why we stay prudent. There could be in the structural impact, you mentioned, China, so Philippe explained our assumption in term of China recovery, in terms of traffic, we don't expect a full recovery in 2024. So clearly, the performance will also depend of the on this rate of recovery, regarding Chinese Chinese traffic. And indeed, the structural performance, thanks to Extime strategy, could be negatively impacted by the renovation of 2 by the terminal 2 EK. So far, we haven't seen a huge impact, so the work just started a few months ago.
Clearly, as I mentioned in the performance to date, in Terminal 1 and in Terminal 2, EK, EK, okay, we don't see any impact of this work, because, as I mentioned, we posted a performance above EUR 60 in Terminal 2 EK, and even a little bit higher for Terminal 1. Terminal 1, it's not a closure of Terminal 2 EK, but there could be, it's a 2-year program, there could be some specific closure on some luxury shops. So that's why also, we remain very, very cautious on that. We don't have enough experience so far, so far on the beginning of this work to tell really and to quantify the impact it could have.
Regarding the other Extime activities, so yes, we don't speak often about them. Indeed, in terms of advertising, there is a good performance thanks to some recent event, the World Cup, Rugby and the Olympics will be a good accelerator of the performance regarding advertising activities. In F&B, it's also an important part of our strategy, and as mentioned in the presentation earlier on, we recently had the green light of the French competition authority to implement our JV with SSP. So it will be the opportunity for us now to implement clearly our strategy and to rethink the allocation of specific F&B shops to put inside the terminal.
So we also expect a positive impact of all other activity, even if, of course, duty-free represent, I think, 80% of the global performance of retail performance.
Thank you.
We will take our next question from Christian Nedelcu from UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. The first one, could I come back to the Middle East traffic? Did I understand also, other than Israel and Lebanon, you are not seeing any erosion in demand for traveling to the Middle East these days? So any airlines reducing capacity to other countries or hearing about bookings weakening or anything like that? So that's the first one. Secondly, on the regulation, on the cost allocation between regulated and non-regulated, is there any update there? And do we have a timeline when we're gonna have a final outcome from the regulator on how OpEx will be split between regulated and non-regulated? And the third one, just you talked in the past about the electricity and sort of hedging more and trying to use the RN facility.
Is there any progress at this stage you can tell us for 2024 electricity costs or how much they could increase? Thank you.
So thank you. So for your first question, it's a little bit early, and we don't see for the moment a real impact, but we are very cautious, and we have to wait. So a little bit early to speak about that. For your second question, for cost allocation. So, as you know, the IRT decision dealt with cost allocating principle, and for the moment, we are in line with the general principle of the French authority. So no huge issue and concerns about that. But at the same time, we have launched a process to explain all our key cost allocation system with the airlines.
The outcome of this review is not going to end, but with a decision for the regulator, for the regulator. So no, no, we don't expect for the moment a huge impact. All in all, this cost allocation will be included in the overall tariff moderation, and we are going to propose some correction as early as the next tariff proposal, so in November. It's very slight correction due to the discussion with the airlines without a huge impact in the economic model.
So for your third question about the energy cost, so, as you know, our energy hedging structure has been defined now, and price for the portion of electricity we need to buy on the market has been fully secured for 2024 and partially for 2025. Our hedging structure is based with 3 pillars, the market, the PPA, and the ARENH system. Globally, at the end of the day, for 2024, the mix price is approximately 2x higher than 2023 price. So, remember that for 2022, the electricity cost for Paris was around EUR 30 million. So we expect globally, EUR 60 million. A little bit more because we have some dynamics in terms of volume.
We are in the process of building our budget, so it's a little bit early, but we assume this impact was also in our guidance. We can... In the meantime, you can refer to our EBITDA margin range of 35%-38%, that I mentioned just previously. The increase in energy cost was anticipated and is included in this range, but not the new tax.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Last question, please?
We'll take our next question from Eric Lemarié from CIC. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Yes, thanks. Thanks for taking my question. I've got just one, actually. Coming back on this regulated WACC, you don't know today. I was wondering if you got any idea of the way the regulator could take account of this new rate environment, because surely the rates are higher than in the past, and it should be translated into the regulated WACC, I guess, but do you reckon it could happen?
So, for the moment, we don't have additional information provided by the French regulator. We, as the French regulator, launch a consultation, and we understand that several buy-side analysts have been consulted by the French regulator, and we trust that investors will provide useful input to the French regulator. But all in all, for the moment, we don't have a clear view. But remember that the WACC assumption is based on average, five years average, with historical market data. So mechanically, the inflation, the new rates taken account by the WACC, it's just one year compared to 5 years average.
So, at the end of the day, we have mechanically dynamic and an increase in our WACC. But we know also that the French regulator wants to have perhaps a new methodology, and we don't have a clear view about this new methodology for the moment.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Now, I would like to turn the call back over to the speaker for closing remarks.
Yes, thank you very much. So yeah, thank you everyone for having logged on to our conference. So we will be attending actually several investor relation meetings and conference. So we'll be traveling to meet you in the coming weeks, and we are looking forward to that. We will then release our full year 2023 results on the morning of the fifteenth of February next year. So feel free, of course, to get in touch with Elliot and me for any follow-up question. And with that, good evening, everyone. Bye-bye.