Arkema S.A. (EPA:AKE)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 10, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Arkema's third quarter results conference call. I will now hand over to Thierry Le Hénaff, CEO. Sir, please go ahead.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Arkema Q3 2022 results conference call. With me today are Marie-José Donsion, our CFO, and the investor relations team. As usual, to support this conference call, we have posted the presentation on our website, which details our third quarter performance and confirmed full year outlook. I will comment the highlights of the quarter before letting Marie-José Donsion go through the financials in more detail, and as always, we will answer your question at the end of the call. We delivered a very solid set of results with a record Q3 EBITDA, slightly above last year level. The cash flow generation was strong.

As you know, this performance was achieved in a challenging operating environment with elevated inflation, the energy crisis in Europe, as well as the clear slowdown again in Europe, which was amplified by de-stocking in the construction market impacted our volumes. We expect, obviously, this de-stocking to continue into Q4. More broadly, the results show clear contrasts depending on which region and which market we are talking about. The bright spot being the US, with Europe being more challenging and Asia between the two. We'll come back to this in more detail. These results are in line with our expectations and with our confirmed full year guidance of an EBITDA of EUR 2.1 billion. Specifically, I would like to mention the following key points of this third quarter.

Arkema's EBITDA rose by nearly 5% to EUR 495 million, and the EBITDA margin came close to the 17% level without reaching the very high level of the first half. While intermediates were down as expected, this performance was driven by our specialty material with an 8% increase in EBITDA, thanks to a number of factors. Firstly, our pricing power continued across all businesses to offset the ongoing inflationary trend in raw material and energy costs. Although the temporary tightness in PVDF is as expected, and acrylic spreads have normalized in Europe and Asia. Our product mix was positive as appetite for high value added applications in areas like clean mobility, lightweighting, 3D printing, and bio-based material remain well oriented. Thirdly, our balanced geographical and end market exposure served us well. Europe slowed down materially, impacted by de-stocking in the construction market.

The excellent contribution from the Americas and to a lesser extent Asia, where China nevertheless remains soft, enabled us to offset the weakness in Europe. We have also observed in Q3 a stabilization of raw materials prices, even the first signs of declines. This decline should accelerate in Q4, but the impact on the P&L should take three to six months. Looking briefly at Arkema segment, Bostik and Advanced Materials delivered solid results. Bostik's EBITDA resisted well despite half of their sales being exposed to construction, growing by 14% in the quarter, driven by their pricing power, product mix, and of course, the integration of Ashland Adhesives, confirming the quality of this recent acquisition. We expect Bostik volumes to continue to suffer in the near term, but we should start to see some benefits from lower raw materials as we go into 2023.

Like we have seen through this year, Advanced Materials earnings rose strongly, driven by our innovation and application of our own megatrends. High Performance Polymers was a standout performer with exposure of the innovation to megatrends, despite progressive normalization on PVDF prices and some exciting product introduction at key customers in areas like sport and mobility. Regarding Performance Additives, they delivered a resilient performance despite lower volumes, reflecting the macro environment. In Coating Solutions, EBITDA was lower than last year very high levels. Conditions in upstream acrylic, which represent, as you know, around one-third of segment sales, were more challenging in Europe. Pricing power remained solid in the downstream, but their volume were impacted by de-stocking in construction-related market. In Intermediates, the dynamic in refrigerant gases remained good, while market conditions for acrylic in China, as expected, were challenging after a few very tight quarters.

Last but not least, I'm sure you noticed it, Arkema generated excellent cash flow this quarter, thanks to the level of EBITDA and our focus on managing working capital. This impacted favorably the balance sheet, the low level of debt being a key asset for Arkema. Beyond the financials, we also continue to work on our long-term ambition this quarter with a strong emphasis on sustainability, which is at the heart of our development strategy. We published in July our new, more ambitious climate plan, aligned with the 1.5-degree trajectory. Including Scope 3 emissions, and we launched a number of innovative products into the circular economy. We also continue to invest in our employees, and we are proud that Arkema is very well ranked among the World's Best Employers, published by Forbes this year.

Our progress in ESG was further recognized with Euronext confirming Arkema presence in the CAC 40 ESG, and Moody's ESG Solutions rating agency improving our overall score, placing Arkema among the best companies in its sector. In terms of organic growth, we are making headway with our various ongoing projects. In our new Polyamide 11 plant in Singapore, we have produced the first tons, and the startup phase should be completed by year-end. We have around 6 months delay with the HF plant with Nutrien due to some adjustment, but we confirm the level of contribution for this project next year, more weighted towards the second half. Our other project, which will all strengthen our sustainable growth profile, are progressing well. All in all, we confirm an expected EBITDA contribution of EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million next year.

As a matter of fact, more towards the upper end of the range. On the M&A front, in early September, we finalized the acquisition of Polímeros Especiales, and we announced earlier this month the divestment of Febex, small company specialized in phosphorus-based product that fits within the Performance Additives business but had very limited synergy with the rest of the group. We continue to prune the portfolio. I will comment on the outlook at the end of the call, so I will now hand it over to Marie-José. Thank you for your attention.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Thank you, Thierry. I'll start with the revenues. At the EUR 3 billion sales, up 24% year-on-year and up 11% organically, the price effect at +19% is the driver, reflecting our pricing policy in the face of continued cost inflation, as well as a better product mix. Group volumes were down close to 8%, mainly as a result of lower activity levels in Europe and destocking in construction, which impacted primarily Bostik and Coating Solutions segment. The currency effect is a positive 9%, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan versus the euro. The scope effect of +3.8% is linked to the integration of Ashland's adhesives business, Permoseal in Adhesives as well, and Polímeros Especiales in Construction, Coating Solutions.

Q3 EBITDA came at EUR 495 million, with a solid growth in our Specialty Materials, driven in particular by Advanced Materials. While Coating Solutions and Intermediates were below last year's very high level, as Thierry detailed earlier. I take this opportunity to confirm that Ashland's integration is taking place smoothly and delivers according to business plan, around EUR 20 million EBITDA per quarter. Recurring EBIT came to EUR 356 million, up 4% relative to last year. EBIT margins stood at 12%, moderating somewhat versus the 14.3% achieved in Q3 2021. Non-recurring items amount to EUR 35 million and include a EUR 21 million of purchase accounting depreciation and amortization, and EUR 14 million one-off charges, restructuring and legal expenses.

Financial results stands at EUR -17 million, in line with last year's level. At EUR 76 million, the tax charge reflects higher earnings and their geographic split. Excluding exceptional items, the tax rate stands at 21% of recurring EBIT year to date. Consequently, Q3 adjusted net income is similar to last year's level at EUR 260 million, which corresponds to EUR 3.5 per share. Moving on to cash flow and net debt. As you could see, Q3 recurring cash flow is up strongly to EUR 434 million. Cash flow generation benefits from EUR 138 million inflow linked to the evolution of working capital.

This results from our good operating discipline and also our continuous monitoring of our credit risk and inventory levels. The working capital ratio on annualized sales stands at 15.5% versus 12.3% last year and is below the 16.4% pre-COVID level of end September 2019. It is worth noting that in the context of increasing selling prices, cost inflation, and higher value inventories, the working capital increased in the nine months by around EUR 500 million compared with the end 2021. Total capital expenditure amounted to EUR 152 million in the quarter. It encompasses exceptional CapEx for EUR 21 million and a recurring CapEx for EUR 131 million.

In Q3, we also recorded a cash outflow of EUR 121 million related to portfolio management operations linked mainly with the acquisitions of Permoseal in South Africa and Polímeros in Mexico. Net debt at the end of September 2022 therefore amounts to EUR 2.6 billion, including EUR 700 million of hybrid bonds, a little below the quarter two level, thanks to our strong cash generation.

The net debt to last 12-month EBITDA ratio stands at 1.2 times. I thank you for your attention, and we'll now hand it over back to Thierry for the outlook.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Thank you, Marie-José. As you know, there has been a clear change in the economic environment, like currently much more pronounced in Europe due to the energy crisis, a slowdown in construction. You are well aware of it, which is temporarily amplified by destocking by certain customers. Those elements were anticipated. I think we had the opportunity to talk about it a couple of months ago. It was well factored into our further guidance, which we are confirming, and which will make overall 2022 a very strong year with two different halves, as is now becoming often the case. The implicit fourth quarter guidance factors in some expected customer destocking.

While Q4 EBITDA will be below last year performance, which was by far our best ever Q4, thanks to significant restocking, it should end up around the Q4 2019 level, but despite a much less favorable economic environment. Structurally it will be better than Q4 2019. We observe that raw material prices have started to decrease, reflecting the softer macro. We should benefit at a certain point on most downstream activities. This is more upside for 2023 around springtime. I mentioned 3-6 months to take into account the effect of inventories. Over the coming months, we have two key priorities, working as usual for Arkema on two time horizons. Let's say short-term, long-term, to make it simple. Firstly, among other priorities, we will focus on cash flow.

You could see the benefit of this focus on the third quarter, and we will continue and adapt to the changing economic environment with actions on costs and inventories. Secondly, helped by our strong balance sheet that you recognize and our diversification in terms of end market and geographies, we will execute our long-term strategy in all its aspects, pursuing product innovation for sustainability, making further progress on operational excellence, building a less carbon-intensive trajectory, and fully engaging with employees on all those subjects, as well as on continuing to digitalize and modernize our work organization. As you know, we are well on track regarding our 2024 trajectory, and in fact, we are starting to think about a longer term ambition and targets for the group.

I thank you very much for your attention, and we are now together with Marie-José ready to answer your questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. First question from Matthew Yates from Bank of America. Sir, please go ahead.

Matthew Yates
Managing Director, Head of European Chemicals Research, Bank of America

Good morning, Thierry and Marie. Having seen the Trinseo results, I'm certainly glad that Arkema is no longer in the PMMA business and perhaps puts the valuation you got for that business in a better light. I wanted to ask about plans for exiting the other parts of the portfolio that you've highlighted as non-core. That upstream acrylic position in China you've said needs to have better integration, one way or the other. Is there a greater sense of urgency on finding a solution for that now that we're seeing spreads come down? Then with regards to fluorogases, appreciate you made the announcement recently that you continue to prune that portfolio.

Overall, should we continue to expect progress over the next year or so towards a simpler Arkema portfolio? Thank you.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Matthew, hello, and thank you for the fair question, which we had opportunity to discuss already also in the past. Clearly, our strategy is very clear, and you're right to mention it for our fluorogas and China. Thank you for mentioning that PMMA was certainly done at the right moment. We appreciate that. We are even if fluorogas and what we want to do medium term in China. Acrylics is really as we start the process, as we mentioned a couple of months ago. I would say that we are not fixed still, because you have seen the disposal of Febex.

You could argue that it's small, but at the end of the day, still cash which in turn something which is non-strategic for the company, which shows you that we again on M&A will continue. It's a signal that on M&A will continue to be dynamic as always. On fluorogas, which is your main point, I would not say that many things have happened since we talked last time because it was in September. We have structured the process. We have, which means also with advisors, et cetera, and we are launching the process. It's really starting now. Is there a sense of urgency? I don't like too much this word. As you know me, I think same for acquisition.

I think there is, on M&A, it's not a matter of urgency. It's a matter of, finding the right balance between, speed, price, timing. The world is very volatile, so I think timing is important. You can trust us when we say that we want to do it because we have done so much since the start of Arkema. Again, we want to manage the timing under our control. No sense of urgency, but a clear desire to do it.

Matthew Yates
Managing Director, Head of European Chemicals Research, Bank of America

Thank you. Maybe if I can ask another one. You said the Ashland acquisition was performing broadly in line with the plan you have. Now you've owned the asset for a little bit longer, any further thoughts on sort of positive or negative surprises you've seen in the asset base or the customer reception to the portfolio?

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

I would maybe start with a confirmation, which this is why we bought it, is that it's a resilient business. It's in the U.S. for most of it's 90% in the U.S. It is, as you know, pressure sensitive adhesives, linked to resilient businesses. I know that, in the current year, there are plenty of acquisitions everywhere, which we have done in the past six months to 12 months, and not all are resilient, but I would say, in the industry or outside of the industry. We are very pleased to see that, Ashland, it's a confirmation, it's a resilient business. Now, in terms of culture, again, another confirmation, it's really fitting very well with Arkema. They are strong people. They are dedicated to performance.

They are also on ESG, it's really an awareness which was developed inside Ashland itself. Really we are very pleased with what we see. Surprises, positive, negative, I would say no. You know, we spent really, we had in-depth discussion with them before because it was a significant acquisition for Arkema. Because of that, I would not say we have found surprises. The potential is really there. We are really focusing short-term to confirm the resilience and all the performance and to make the integration as smooth as possible from information system to raw material to business synergies with Coating Solutions and with Bostik. Confirmation, I would say.

Matthew Yates
Managing Director, Head of European Chemicals Research, Bank of America

Thank you, Thierry.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

You're welcome, Matthew.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Martin Roediger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Sir, please go ahead.

Martin Roediger
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, thanks. I have two questions. First, on the business environment, can you talk a bit about your order books in Q4, the demand patterns in October and beginning of November? You mentioned already that you see customer destocking. You mentioned already that North America is strong, but Europe is weak. But I'm more interested in the customer industries beyond construction. Construction you mentioned also is weak, but other end markets such as automotive, consumer goods. That would be my first question. And the second question is on Coating Solutions. You indicate that the upstream profitability dropped in the third quarter. Is there any meaningful gap in margins between upstream and downstream? If so, is downstream now more profitable than upstream? And regarding acrylics, do you see margins in acrylics at low cycle conditions or still at mid-cycle conditions? Thanks.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay, thank you, Martin, for your question. I would say on the macro. Okay, I will share what we see, but there is nothing different from what you can hear from other people. You know, we have diversified market base. Construction is 28%, as you know, 1/3 in each region, so spread. Europe is about 10%, but clearly strong destocking in European construction. I would say in U.S., far more moderate so far. China, it was already soft since the start of the year. I think normally in Asia, they don't build as much stock, so it's less an issue of destocking.

Clearly in Europe, the underlying demand in that you can measure, you have on construction external statistics was amplified by destocking. With regard to auto, in fact, auto is a bit special because the starting point was rather low because of lack of components. Because of that, you don't see so much slowdown in auto. It's not so much a judgment about the fact that auto is growing. It's more judgment about the fact that because there was a sort of backlog on auto, so we don't see if it is your question, we don't see the slowdown on auto. I'm not counting electrical vehicle because this is on top of it. I was talking more on the traditional auto.

We have the growth coming from the battery. On consumer goods, sport is doing very well, but also because we have a lot of innovation, new platform, bio-based products, difficult for me to judge, for example, the base business. Electronics, consumer electronics is slowing down. I would say, you have. It's interesting, because we are in sort of transition phase, and not only Arkema, everybody about the macro. The macro will stabilize at a certain point, but so far, depending on which region and which end market, you have plenty of different momentum. I try to answer the one you asked me a question about.

With regard to Coating Solutions, it's more maybe with the exception of Europe, it's more, which because of the specific context is suffering more. For the rest, it's more a topic of volumes. Don't forget that for Coating Solutions, the volume at the end of the year is a low season. You have the traditional effect of volume that you did not see last year because it was a restocking mode for many of our markets. This year is more from this standpoint standard. You have the seasonality, which is always low starting in October. On top of that, you have the slowdown in Europe. China construction is quite soft as everybody know. It's more a topic of volumes than a topic of the cycle.

Clearly, if we look at acrylic, including China, I would say U.S. is quite resilient. Europe, completely an issue of volume destocking, okay? Our focus is on stock. We are reducing our stock. China, the cycle is really down. Then it's the end of the year, so it does not. Don't extrapolate for what it could be first semester for China acrylic because it can move very fast, okay?

Martin Roediger
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

I would like to make a comment on destocking maybe, which is a general comment. Again, if you take all the company, let's say in chemical, depending on your positioning on end market, you have clearly different volume trend. Some see destocking now, and some will see destocking later based on what end market they are positioned on. For me to have some destocking now is not a bad thing. I prefer to have destocking, for example, in construction, even for adhesive and coating today, and to have a healthy base end of the year or early next year than the contrary. Again, you have in some negative, you have also some positive. What is important is to keep the big picture.

Martin Roediger
Senior Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Charles Webb from Morgan Stanley. Sir, please go ahead.

Charles Webb
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Morning, everyone. Morning, Thierry. Morning, Marie-José. Thank you for taking the questions. Maybe just following up on your last point there, Thierry, around destocking, not extrapolating, you know, per se the fourth quarter. You know, when we think about that sequential decline in the fourth quarter, you know, how much of that is just an acceleration of that destocking plus some of the seasonal effect? Or are there any other factors we should be considering in Q4 where you're proactively also kind of maybe optimizing cash flow over EBITDA? Just kind of trying to get a gauge on that for the fourth quarter and then how we think about next year or the start of next year.

Just on that destocking, do you think you know much of that will be done by Q4, or do you think some of that lingers into Q1 just in terms of the reality of how quick that destocking can happen? Second question, just on Advanced Materials. It's clearly been a very strong year in 2022. You know, you've alluded to some perhaps overearning in areas like PVDF, but other trends obviously still very strong. Just, you know, how do you think about Advanced Materials into next year if then, you know, we start to see a bit of deflation creeping in? You know, where does a normalized basis look like for 2023, or at least kind of directionally versus, you know, what has been, as I said, a fantastic performance this year?

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay, Charles. Hello. Thank you for your question. I would be modest on your two questions or humble. I think the visibility, as you know, on destocking is a difficult spot, huh? We have many end markets or some clearly construction, it will not happen for many months again. We started early. Maybe some will happen before. It's difficult to judge. There will still be some destocking, certainly, but it's not only Arkema. I think everybody certainly in the first quarter of next year, I would be surprised because some markets maybe will adjust later. Certainly, construction in Europe, when I see the kind of decline we have, I assume it will not stay too long.

Hopefully, at the end of the year, the base will be quite healthy. After that, your question is what will the demand be in Q1 2023? You don't know. I don't know. I mean, we can invent figures, but then it's more about the general macro where we have still uncertainties. What we think is that we are very solid on our feet. That will be when construction market will pick up again, we'll be in very good shape. For the time being, we need to digest this kind of restocking and underlying demand. It's an offsetting factor of what has happened before. I never forget that we had restocking. There had been some starting mid twenty very strong years.

Now there is sort of digestion up until when, honestly, nobody knows. But because you don't know what is the stocking all along the chain. But you know, when you look at Q4, because I see your underlying comment, which is your Q4 is weak. If you look at it with some little bit from the top, so last year was very strong with a strong restocking, completely atypical with the kind of Q4 we have had so far. Then you go back to 2019, pre-COVID. In the pre-COVID, we were delivering the same as we planned for Q4 this year. With the difference is that in the pre-COVID, there was no destocking. This year there will be destocking.

so bad when you look at it from a structural standpoint. I wanted to share this qualitative point with you. On your point on cash flow versus EBITDA, we don't arbitrate. This means that we deliver, as usual, the best EBITDA that we can. We'll try to manage our cash flow according to the market condition. I think we did a good job. We continue to do so, but it's not one against the other, if it is your question. With regard to Advanced Materials, thank you for noticing that we delivered a super performance in. As you know, we try to be transparent to the market.

Yes, maybe sometimes people think that we are a bit too cautious, but I think it's our style, and we manage it like this. We think that, because the question was asked some other earnings in this year, mostly PVDF and acrylics, and we give a number close to EUR 400, which we confirm year-over-year. After that, you can say half or a bit more half and a bit less than half. Let's say this is the order of magnitude which will impact PVDF, even if our volume will continue to grow in PVDF. It's not a matter of volume at all. It's just that there was too much tightness at the beginning of the year.

On the other side, polyamide will be good next year because we'll get the new plant. We have been quite tight in terms of delivery. Fortunately, we will and we gave a guidance on the contribution of all our projects. You have that also. Now, it's too early to give you guidance for 2023. We never do it. We not do it this year. Normally, it's when we publish our annual result that we come back to you and that we try to guide you as much as we can on what we could do in 2023.

For the time being, we really focus on managing our cash, our cost to be prepared for next year as we are doing every year.

Charles Webb
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

You're welcome, Charles.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Investment Research. Please go ahead.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

Yes, thanks a lot. The first question is on adhesives, really, Thierry. I appreciate, sorry, for asking a 2023 question, but when you think about the moving parts, you know, of price versus raw material relief and then extra month of Ashland plus synergies plus FX, it at least seems that you will be able to, you know, grow next year. Just wanted to understand, you know, what sort of margin progression should we expect in adhesives next year? You know, do you think you're confident that you can grow in absolute EBITDA? That's my first question. The second question is on PVDF, actually.

Given the Nutrien project and your sort of, you know, improving the ecological footprint of the value chain, you know, what are your plans for investments in the US, especially under the IRA now? I mean, do you intend to build a greenfield plant or just continue the brownfield expansion? That's my second question. The third question really is around the additive side of things where you did flag some, you know, destocking. Just wanna understand, you know, how is the order book looking like for molecular sieves? And with regards to crosslinkers as well, what is the competitive dynamics these days with regards to crosslinkers? Thanks a lot.

Operator

I'm sorry, Mr. Le Hénaff, we can't hear you. Okay, maybe we have a technical problem.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

Hello?

Operator

Yes, we have a problem with the speaker. I will reconnect the line. Sorry for this problem.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Hello? Hello?

Operator

Yes.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Hello?

Operator

Mr. Le Hénaff? Yes, you are connected. We had a technical problem with your line.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay. Thank you. Okay, you listen to me or you can hear me?

Operator

Yes, we can hear you. Go ahead.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay. Jaideep, sorry. I don't know if there was any technical interruption. I don't know why, but I don't know where I was. Just to confirm that on adhesive, we are confident to grow next year. I think we have the structural element which will take us. And there is uncertainty about the macro, but adhesive will continue to grow. They were impacted this year by the level of raw material, as you know, and at the end of the year by the construction. Again, we are, I think we are on the right direction on adhesive. On PVDF, as you can imagine, I will not announce to you things that we have not announced externally yet. We'll do it at our pace.

What I can say, and thank you for the question, is that we have capacity starting in China early next year. The same for France. We have a significant ambition in the U.S. We are already very strong, and we continue to invest in the U.S. Now, when, how much will be disclosed at a certain point, but we have our plans. You wisely mentioned that there are also some support that can be given in the U.S., and we'll make our efforts to benefit from it. Yes, clearly U.S., but it's not only for PVDF, it's for other end markets and technologies.

It's a strong point of Arkema, as you know, from history, and we'll continue to invest materially in the coming years in the US, including if we have the opportunity on M&A. Just to conclude on PVDF, yes, there will be movement in the US, but too early to say. We know exactly what we want to do.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

If I can just ask one follow-up to Marie-José actually. Well, first of all, well done on the free cash flow. When we think about 2023, what sort of CapEx levels should we think about? You know, from the envelope of the outflow of working capital, how much do you think, based on the way raw materials are trending these days, could we see as an inflow next year? Thanks a lot.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Thank you, Jaideep. I confirm, you know, the culture of the company is very much focused on cash. I mean, it's part of the incentives of all managers. I guess it helps, you know, having a conversation on that metric internally. Basically, as I mentioned, you know, in cumulative for the nine months, we have accumulated still EUR half a billion in working capital value. I expect some reversal. I mean, the reversal has partly started in Q3. I obviously expect some additional reversal in Q4. Depending on the evolution of the inflation metrics, obviously, there could be actually some benefit into next year.

It's a lot depending, let's say, on how much the price of raw materials will fluctuate. And the volumes, in fact, will fluctuate. As Thierry mentioned, you know, our visibility level for 2023 is frankly limited, and there are lots of many potential scenarios. It's difficult to be very precise on this. I think we've demonstrated in the past that we are focused on this metric, and we normally, you know, optimize the performance of Arkema on cash.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Maybe to complete what Marie-José is saying, a few points. You know, our guidance on the cash flow generation, which is 40%.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Conversion, yeah.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Yeah, conversion. I think it applies every year. First thing, at least, 40%. The second thing is that, like for like, this meaning given circumstances, I think we consider that, and you know us now since many years, we have this ability to deliver superior performance in working capital and cash flow. After that, as Marie-José mentioned, it depends on the macro itself and the parameters. At given parameters, I think it would be again superior performance. With regard to CapEx, without giving more precise element than Marie-José is too early. You know first that we are always reasonable in terms of CapEx.

At the same time, we want to be able to support these opportunities coming from megatrends, where we believe Arkema has an incredible potential. With internal rate of return of our organic CapEx, we have to find this balance between deliver this growth on megatrends and being reasonable on the CapEx. You also have in mind that we want to deliver our 1.5 degrees trajectory on the CO2 emission. Okay? We are working on all these elements and same as for EBITDA, we'll come back to you, Marie-José, I think, when we publish the full-year results, we'll give more maturity on that.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

Thank you a lot.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Mechanically, as you know.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

Thanks a lot.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

We will have some CapEx on contributing, let's say, to the trajectory, the new trajectory of emissions. This is factored in the new normative level of CapEx for the company.

Jaideep Pandya
Partner and Research Analyst, On Field Investment Research

Thanks a lot, both of you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Andreas Heine from Stifel. Sir, please go ahead.

Andreas Heine
Managing Director, Stifel

Thanks for having the opportunity to ask my two questions. The first is really on the High Performance Polymers. You were talking in recent quarters that you're basically running at capacity, at least for the prime products, Polyamide 11 and PVDF. Has that changed? The destocking we see across many industries, is that also affecting the High Performance Polymers, or can that decouple? Then the second is more on PVDF. We see a normalization in prices. What is driving this? Is it competition from Chinese new capacity? Is this capacity additions by Western players? Or is there also a slowdown in demand visible? Thank you. Those are my questions. Okay. I don't think, Marie-José, correct me if I'm wrong. I don't think that the destocking is affecting HPP. So-

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

No, that's really good point.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

You might deliver on PVDF. It's not a matter of destocking, it's more a matter of underlying demand for some of the end market. On polyamide we are sold out anyway. On PVDF, part of your point is true, which means that the. It's temporary. There has been so much momentum on the first six months, eight months on the batteries that there is some, let's say, I would not say destocking, just the fact that you cannot continue at this pace, at least. Overall, we are quite optimistic on the volume for our batteries. I would say the last four months of the year show some digestion of the trend.

Nothing to worry about. Because of that, I would say, we are running at capacity, but there is not this tightness that we had seen at the beginning of the year. It's one element. The second one is that you start to see more capacities on PVDF, which weighs a little bit on the overall PVDF. This is what I can say.

Andreas Heine
Managing Director, Stifel

Is that Western capacity or Chinese capacity that's changing the supply now?

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

No, it's more Chinese capacity.

Andreas Heine
Managing Director, Stifel

Thanks so much.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Yeah, I would say in Europe and U.S., you will not see new capacities coming in the short term. You need some time to implement them, so it's more a topic for sure. You know, our strategy in PVDF, and we really focus on the end of the range on the technology differentiation. We have a lot of technology assets, and we build our development of portfolio. This is why we try to find, in terms of growth, the right balance between growing, but growing on where we want to go. This is a permanent strategic exercise and revisiting the market, the end market. We are not talking only about batteries, in PVDF is plenty of markets.

I challenge the team to make sure that we continue to deliver strong value, going forward, as we have been doing in the past 15 years.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Georgina Fraser from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Georgina Fraser
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi. I've just got one question. Thanks, Thierry. Hi, Marie-José. My question is, I know you hesitate to do this, but would really love if you could give us a bit of an overview of the sub-segments within Performance Additives. If you could give us some idea of the demand trends in thiochemicals between animal nutrition and oil and gas. And also in hydrogen peroxides. A lot of your competitors in Europe were facing a very tough environment with the energy prices recently. Any comments you can share would be great. Thanks.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

I would say you will find, so first of all, Georgina, good to talk to you. You will find a little bit, from a regional standpoint, the same, as you find for the rest of the business. This means that U.S., very solid, quite strong, and Asia in between. I would say Europe suffering because of the lack of demand. You find that a little bit. Now, I would say with regard to animal nutrition, in terms of volume is still there. Oil and gas is very strong, so clearly we benefit from it. It's not a big business for Arkema, as you know. Clearly, since you asked the question specifically, we are quite solid there.

Paper, what is linked to paper is difficult, challenging to give you a name. You have what is linked to new energies, because we have also some good exposure to what is new mobility or new energy there is going quite well. You have a mix. You have quite a mix. From an end market standpoint and from a regional standpoint, again, U.S. is the more solid of the three region. Overall, it was a quite robust performance of this Performance Additives segment.

Georgina Fraser
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no more question for this moment. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Thank you.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay. If there is no more question, I'd like to thank you all for your participation, for your question, and I wish you a good day. Don't hesitate if you have any follow-up question where it was-

Operator

Sorry, we have a last question maybe from Laurent Favre from BNP. Sir, please go ahead.

Laurent Favre
Managing Director, BNP Paribas

Really sorry, I didn't realize you were wrapping up, Thierry. I had a follow-up on Jaideep's question on CapEx, actually. I think all of us are modeling CapEx down quite a bit year-on-year into 2023, and I guess we're all assuming that there will be no exceptional CapEx for next year. I think Marie-José, you're implying that there might be some on decarbonization. I'd just like to check, I guess if there's anything you can say directionally for CapEx for next year.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Actually, you're correct. We are completing the 2 exceptional projects that are in the portfolio, so namely Singapore and Nutrien in the U.S. Let's say aside from some, you know, cut off EUR 10-20 million slip into next year, definitely I do not expect any exceptional spending there. What I was referring to is that the normative level of CapEx is roughly increasing to a bit higher than 6% on sales, which actually today now incorporates the CapEx linked to decarbonation.

The ratio previously was more in the range of 5.5% of our turnover, and it's been revised up half a point to 6% to actually take those decarbonization CapEx into account.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

In fact, we are rather consistent with what we say so far. This means that we increase, as Marie-José mentioned, the 5.5-6. On top of that, we are in nuances. I would say, we have maybe 2030 you say as a cutoff from we spend a little bit in exceptional CapEx this year, okay? Maybe you are a little bit high by 2030 this year in your CapEx estimate, but we'll have them next year. All together, it doesn't make more on exceptional, except that there is a little bit of spillover to 2023. When we increase the 5.5-6%, we explained that it was because of the 1.5 degrees trajectory.

We are all consistent. Now, what I added to that is that in terms of sequence, we don't want to miss any opportunities from megatrends because we are very strong there. Based on that, you can have, depending on which year, a little bit more, a little bit less. This we need to factor everything and to come back to you. At the end, we are talking about nuances from something that we have largely covered together.

Laurent Favre
Managing Director, BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you.

Marie-José Donsion
CFO, Arkema

Thank you. We have no more questions.

Thierry Le Hénaff
Chairman and CEO, Arkema

Okay. Thank you all again and I will not make my wrap up again. Have a nice day, and don't hesitate if you have any follow-up with our teams. Okay. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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