Welcome to Arkema's full year 2023 results and highlights conference call. For your information, this call is being recorded. It will take place in a listen-only mode, and you will have the opportunity to ask questions after the presentation by pressing star and 1 on your touchtone telephone. I will now hand you over to Thierry Le Hénaff, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Arkema's full year 2023 results conference call, joining me today are Marie-José Donsion, CFO, and also the investor relations team. As always, the slides used during this conference call are available on our website, and together with Marie-José, we'll be available to answer your questions at the end of the presentation. In 2023, Arkema delivered a solid set of results in challenging macroeconomic conditions. Our teams demonstrated their agility and their commitment as we managed to achieve a performance within the range of the full year guidance we gave a year ago, despite a much more difficult backdrop than initially anticipated.
I know many of you are already focused on 2024, and we'll talk about the outlook later, but it's important to appreciate the robustness of our performance in 2023, which really highlights the strategic and operational work we have accomplished over the past several years. So here are some key points I'd like to emphasize today. In 2023, we achieved a solid EBITDA at EUR 1.5 billion, of course lower than last year's exceptional performance, and also slightly above the pre-COVID level. This highlights the quality of the performance of several of our businesses, particularly in additives and performance additives, which have counterbalanced those product lines that were more impacted by the macro environment. I will let Marie-José go through the segments in greater detail later on.
Our EBITDA margin proved resilient at 15.8%, so close to 16%, also supported by good demand for higher value-added solutions linked to megatrends, including green energy as well as bio-based and recycled products. We are pleased to have delivered an excellent recurring cash flow of EUR 761 million, one of our best ever thanks to our team's hard work in keeping CapEx and working capital under control. We came out of 2023 with an outstanding financial performance. It was in 2022, and we had highlighted already in September 2022, we saw a reversal in 2023 of around EUR 400 million EBITDA over- earnings as a result of the normalization of PVDF and acrylics. This you knew. What no one had foreseen, however, at least at this level, was the persistence of a low underlying demand across many end markets for the chemicals industry.
As we have shown in the past, we were able to adjust to the challenging environment, in particular with a strict discipline on operational costs, pricing, and stock management. We also benefited from our expertise in material science and from the shift toward higher value-added, high-performance materials. After 2022, when our high-performance polymer and coating solution drove very strong performance, in 2023, we were very pleased to see that some of our businesses stepped up and delivered growth. Additives are an increasingly significant part of our business, as they now represent nearly 30% of group sales, and they played last year an important role in Arkema's resilience. Performance additives also performed well, highlighting our solutions in new energies like biofuels and solar energy that are critical for our customers.
These businesses, which stood out in 2023, fuel our technology matrix, which will drive our future growth in the fast-growing submarket we spoke about at the last Capital Markets Day. This is a strength of Arkema's business portfolio with different product lines that can address different environments and are built around three simple and coherent segments. Beyond these financials, last December, we achieved a new step in the strengthening of our specialty materials profile with the closing of the acquisition of a 54% majority stake in PIAM, PI Advanced Materials, which is a global leader in ultra-high-performance polyimide films. As you know, current momentum is soft given the weak end market, but we are convinced that PIAM's performance will pick up significantly when the electronics market recovers, and we believe we'll see some good progress from Q2 this year.
This acquisition provides numerous and significant synergies with our polymer, adhesives, and with Sartomer, and our teams have already started to work hard to deliver those synergies. On the organic CapEx front, we are finalizing some important projects, as you know, to support our customers' sustainable growth. The expansions of Sartomer and of PVDF in China and Pebax in France are up and running and are starting to contribute. For Nutrien, we have just started up, and for polymer delivery in Singapore, we have still some adjustments to undertake. Polymer delivery took more time than expected, we recognize, but as I've said in the past, it's really a unique proprietary process which needs a lot of fine-tuning, but it should really ramp up from the beginning of Q2.
Overall, we can confirm that we expect an EBITDA contribution of EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million in 2024 from all those projects, including the startup in the U.S. in the second part of the year of 1233zd, a new generation low-emission fluoro specialty used notably in insulation films for building and in batteries. We are also pleased by our progress in our ESG performance in 2023. We strengthen our commitment for the climate on the 1.5-degree trajectory by 2030, and this trajectory was validated by SBTi. Last year, we reduced greenhouse gases by 7% for Scope 1 and 2 and by 9% for Scope 3 versus 2022, and our commitment remains well recognized by external agencies.
Developing our employees is also at the forefront of our priorities, and in 2023, we are very proud to have been certified as Top Employer in 5 new countries, also gaining the Top Employer Europe label. We are equally proud to have increased significantly the share of women in management positions to 29%. This is not an easy task in the chemicals industry, but further progress in this area remains clearly one of our long-term priorities. Finally, a word on the important topic of the dividend. As a result of our solid financial performance in 2023 and the board's confidence in Arkema's outlook, a 3% increase in the dividend to EUR 3.5 per share will be proposed at the next AGM in line with our progressive dividend growth strategy. The payout at exactly 40% is in line with what we indicated at the 2020 Capital Markets Day.
Over the past five years, the dividend had grown on average by 7% per year from EUR 2.5 in 2019 to EUR 3.5 in 2024, which is a strong achievement given the declining volume environment we have been facing, and is testament to Arkema's ability to withstand different macro contexts and create value for shareholders. I will come back to the outlook at the end of the presentation, and we'll now hand it over to Marie-José, who will review in more detail our Q4 and full year results.
Thank you, Thierry. I'll start with the revenues. At EUR 9.5 million, 2023 sales were down 18% year-on-year. Volumes were 10% below 2022 level, with destocking and weak demand throughout the year impacting some important end markets across all regions, especially Europe and U.S. The price effect of -6.1% reflects the normalization of PVDF and acrylics mainly, as well as the decline of raw material prices in the second half of the year. We had a limited 0.7% perimeter effect linked mainly to the contribution of Ashland adhesives in January and February, as well as some bolt-ons and the consolidation of PI Advanced Materials in December. This was partly offset by the divestment of Pebax at the start of 2023. Currencies had a negative impact of 2.2% on sales, mainly linked to the weaker U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan against the euro.
EBITDA came in at EUR 1.5 billion in line with the guidance we gave at the Capital Markets Day last September, and it reflects our efforts to maintain a solid pricing and cost discipline in a low-volume environment. In Q4, EBITDA grew 14% year-on-year to EUR 331 million, supported notably by slightly better volumes and a strong contribution from Bostik. Indeed, looking at the profitability of the different segments, Bostik achieved a good performance with a yearly EBITDA of EUR 380 million, up by 4% year-on-year despite an 8% drop in volumes. Focusing on the second-half EBITDA, it was even up by 16%. The key drivers were our ability to hold on to pricing in a lower cost of raw materials context, to control cost, and to deliver operational excellence initiatives. We also got some support from acquisitions.
EBITDA margin was up 140 basis points to 14%, a record high for Bostik, which constitutes a good base from which to expand the margin further in 2024. In Q4, EBITDA rose strongly by 25% to EUR 94 million in Bostik, confirming the improving margin dynamics. Moving on to advanced materials, EBITDA came to EUR 666 million, 29% down on last year's given the absence of last year's exceptional profits in PVDF, while performance additives had an excellent second half. In Q4, EBITDA was stable year on year at EUR 149 million, with performance additives offsetting the lower results of high-performance polymers. EBITDA of coating solutions was down sharply to EUR 327 million, which represents a margin of 13.6%. This was mainly driven by less favorable conditions in upstream acrylics in Europe and in the U.S.
Downstream activities were impacted by lower volumes, but margins held up better thanks to pricing discipline and improved mix. Q4 EBITDA for the segment rose by 10% to EUR 69 million thanks to improved volumes off a low base. Finally, EBITDA in intermediates fell 30% to EUR 213 million with the less favorable conditions in Asian acrylics, only partly offset by the good momentum on the refrigerant gases. With depreciation and amortization at EUR 562 million in 2023, recurring EBIT amounted to EUR 939 million and the recurring margins to that 9.9%. Financial expenses at EUR 70 million reflect the bond issues we undertook last year. The average coupon on Arkema's debt stands at 2.1% at the end of 2023. The recurring tax rate came to 21% of recurring EBIT. This rate should remain relatively stable going into 2024.
All in all, adjusted net income came to EUR 659 million, sorry, EUR 653 million, which corresponds to 8.75 EUR per share. Moving on to cash flow, you saw we delivered a strong recurring cash flow of EUR 761 million in 2023, which is equating to a bit more than 50% EBITDA to cash conversion rate. This includes EUR 170 million working capital inflow linked to the price effect, notably on receivables, and to the quality of our management of inventories. The working capital ratio on annualized sales stands at 13.4%, which is actually a pretty good level. Capital expenditure totals EUR 634 million, reflecting lower exceptional CapEx of EUR 26 million as the construction of the Nutrien and polyamide 11 plants were being finalized. Free cash flow amounts to EUR 625 million.
It includes a non-recurring outflow of EUR 110 million linked primarily to the startup costs of the Singapore platform, as well as Bostik refreshing costs. Taking into account the net cash outflow of EUR 708 million from the portfolio management operations linked essentially to the acquisition of PI Advanced Materials, net debt at the end of 2023 stood at EUR 2.9 billion, including the EUR 700 million of hybrid bonds, and the net debt to last 12-month EBITDA ratios stood at 1.95 times. Thank you for your attention. I will now hand it over to Thierry for the outlook.
Thank you, Marie-José. So the environment at the beginning of 2024 is similar to what we have experienced in the latter part of 2023 with across all key regions weak demand. In Q1 2024, as we said in the press release, we expect EBITDA to be rather similar to the Q4 2023 level, which was a good Q4 by historic standards. For the year-on-year comparison, please also note that in the first quarter, market conditions were still particularly favorable in PVDF and upstream acrylics last year. Beyond the potential recovery, demand later in the year, and the integration of the PIAM acquisition, Arkema will benefit, as you know, from the contribution of new organic projects at a level, as I said before, which we can estimate at EUR 60-70 million in terms of EBITDA.
This number is quite consistent with what we already said last year in the fall. The phasing will clearly be H2-weighted with a ramp-up from Q2 onwards. By segment, we see the following dynamics. In Adhesives, first, we'll continue to drive synergies linked to Ashland and a few recent bolt-ons and will benefit from our ongoing operating excellence and cost control initiatives. Adhesives, if you remember, were the first segment to suffer from destocking in 2022, and as you could see, the dynamic has now turned positive, driven by higher margins. The contribution of new projects that I've mentioned before will be, in fact, mostly concentrated within Advanced Materials, as a matter of fact, within high-performance polymers. This includes notably Singapore, Nutrien, and PIAM, for which we are working hand in hand with the management to ensure we implement synergies as quickly and efficiently as possible.
As for performance additives, they will aim to consolidate their strong 2023 performance. In coating solution, upstream acrylic remains soft for the time being, but we expect growth in the downstream resins and additives. Our strategy is focused on delivering more eco-friendly and bio-based solutions. This includes the decarbonization of our acrylics plant in France. It also includes the participation with the other segments in the One Arkema platforms of battery, electronics, and bio-based products. So all in all, we aim to achieve in 2024 an EBITDA of EUR 1.5 billion -EUR 1.7 billion, depending on the dynamic of the recovery in demand, which is still unknown at this stage. Overall seasonality in 2024 will be more H2-weighted given the elements I've just mentioned. The lower end of the range assumes no real demand recovery, while the high end of the range assumes a clear recovery from the spring.
We don't control the macro, so as always, we'll focus on what we do control, managing our business strictly, which has worked out rather well for us in the past. In addition to managing the short term, our teams will deploy the longer-term roadmap, which we unveiled at the recent Capital Markets Day. We have many new important projects on the way. I mentioned the decarbonization of acrylics, but we have also started to work on the new DMDS capacity in the U.S. for biofuels and also our organic peroxide in China for new energies. Our balance sheet, as mentioned, Marie-José, as we enter 2024, remains solid with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 2 times, including the acquisition of PIAM. We'll continue to look for small targeted M&A opportunities, notably in adhesives.
Last but not least, we'll maintain our innovation drive in high-performance specialty materials with a focus on sustainability, which provides a powerful tailwind for our longer-term ambitions as defined at the Capital Markets Day. I thank you very much for your attention. Together with Marie-José, we are now ready to answer the question you may have.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question over the phone, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please press star 2. Again, please press star 1 on your telephone to answer the question queue and wait for your name to be announced. The first question comes from Matthew Yates of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Couple of questions, please. The first one just on the Q1 guidance. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd usually assume that there's some favorable seasonality sequentially as demand picks up, particularly in construction, which is a big-end market for you. So what is holding back the sequential profit development? Is there some incremental price pressure, or is there cost going back into the business after the temporary savings that you made last year? And maybe one for Marie-José, just to clarify. The PA11 startup cost, I think last year were treated as an exceptional. In Q1, do those simply go through the underlying numbers? And then the second question, a bit more mid-term but around adhesives, as you say, very good development in Q4.
At the CMD, you talked about I think it was EUR 1 billion of sales in four key platforms by 2028 or about EUR 300 million incrementally. What does the journey look like between now and 2028? Is that a fairly linear progression of EUR 60 million or so a year? And what is the incremental margin on these platforms? Does that continue to be accretive to the mix? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Matthew. So with regard to the Q1 guidance, so in fact, we made two comparisons. One is with Q4, which was more to give you the order of magnitude, and then the Q1, which is more traditional, I would say, of last year. So with regard to the, if you compare to the Q4, in fact, the Q4 of, if you look at the history and I think we mentioned it quickly, but it's true. When you compare history, the Q4 was rather strong. You have a bit, what, EUR 30 million more, what usually we were achieving in Q4. And we did that last year despite still a rather weak environment. So it was a very good Q4. So when you compare, you have to take that into account.
So you have a little bit of seasonality that you see if you take a more normalized Q1. Now, you mentioned construction. But in fact, construction in Q1, normally, at least for Arkema and our type of business, is still low. It's really starting in Q2, this construction business, to develop traditionally. This is what we have seen. Maybe what I can add on the Q1 because for us, it was I think this is more or less what we had in mind since a certain time for Q1 is that when you compare to last year, we had last year a sort of end of this gap with normalization, PVDF acrylic, which started last year but which was progressive. So we have about, let's say, EUR 30 million, mostly weighted on acrylics, which explains also versus last year why we would be below. So for us, it's rather mechanical.
Now it's true. It's our duty also to mention it. But when I look at our peers that have, let's say, released their comment or either American, which started early, or some European recently, I mean, we are all aligned on the fact that the start of the year is in terms of demand is rather soft. So all in all, it makes the consistency of the Q1, let's say, seasonality versus the full-year guidance that you have. You mentioned the polyamide 11 startup cost. No, we will be consistent with what we did last year. We are still a little bit of startup cost starting the year because the plants have not fully started, and it should fade rather quickly after that.
With regard to the adhesives, I think with regard to the main technology platform, you have, it's not completely linear because it's the start of the new cycle of new business development cycle with investment, either organic or acquisition. We mentioned PIAM, but it's HPP, but Ashland development. And we have PMP. We have Polytec PT, some others. And we have also the new innovation investment of adhesives. So I would say I don't know the word in English, but you start a bit slower and you accelerate over the period.
Okay. Thank you, Thierry.
You're welcome, Matthew.
The next question is from Aron Ceccarelli of Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi. Good morning. I have one on your 2024 EBITDA guidance. So if I take the PI Advanced Materials contribution, which should be something around EUR 50 million plus the major projects, around another EUR 65 million, so I'm already at 1.615. I was wondering, what kind of assumption are you guys making for the low end of your guidance? That would be the first question. The second one is on PVDF. I see that volumes are coming up again. Prices have collapsed last year. So I just wonder if you can provide a little bit more color also in terms of what capacity you are expecting from Chinese players in PVDF. And the final one is on CapEx. If I remember correctly, you gave a guidance of around EUR 4 billion at the Capital Markets Day for the next five years.
Can you provide a little bit more color around the CapEx phasing in 2024, please? Thank you.
Okay. So with regard to as we mentioned, we have a range for the 2024. You are mentioning the low end of the range. So the low end of the range means no recovery. So no recovery means a little bit more pressure on pricing. You have this gap that we have mentioned on the Q1 on PVDF of acrylics, which is EUR 30 million. You have some FX also that mostly looking at last year, euro, dollar, and also RMB. I was checking with Marie-José. So all in all, and you mentioned the organic project, but if you have less recovery, the ramp-up of the project by nature since they are expansions is less quick because of the macro. So all in all, by nature, it's a low end of the range, but it takes into account this element.
While on the other side, the 1.7 plan recovery, which is stronger. So it makes sense. And 200, I mean, I compare also with some peers in terms of size of the range, is okay for this kind of environment. So we are at ease with this. With regard to PVDF, I would say that we have still a little bit of pricing gap on the start of the year compared to last year for the reason we have mentioned. It was progressive decrease last year, but I think we have reached something which is now more stable, clearly. Volumes are up. You're right to say that. A little bit up. We don't have unlimited capacity because we have never had any problem of softness on PVDF. It was more a topic of price.
So in fact, the volume we can add are the volume which will come from the capacity addition we add, I would say, in China and in France where we have 6 more months this year. With regard to the capacity from China, it's not a completely transparent market, but there have been significant, especially for the battery side. But I think it's already a rather factor. We stayed with good profitability on PVDF, but it has been normalized compared to the exceptional 2022 landscape. With regard to CapEx in 2024, so I think we have been quite clear at the Capital Markets Day.
There will be a ramp-up compared to, let's say, an increase compared to what it was in the previous four-year period of 2022, 2020, 2023. So it gives you something for 2024, which is a good EUR 100 million in addition compared to what it was in 2023.
Okay? But consistent with what we say. Even if we take the trajectory which has been expressed using the Capital Markets Day, it's even a bit higher, but then it depends at which speed and with which magnitude we confirm certain projects which have not been yet completely announced. So no surprise there.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Alex Stewart of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good morning or good afternoon. Thank you. And congratulations on your performance last year. Very good in the context. I had two questions. The first one is on the PA11 plant. I gather you haven't built a new asset like this for a long time. So probably everybody who worked on the last one is no longer around, and that may explain the delays. But could you perhaps give us a little bit more information about the technical challenges you've had because we're now probably almost 12 months delayed in ramping up compared to your initial guidance? It'd be very interesting to hear that. And secondly, in adhesives, I think the wording in the presentation was that you were expecting good growth. Could you just clarify what would good look like to you and whether you're talking about top-line or bottom-line growth?
Just give some more context around that given the strong performance last year. Thank you so much.
So on the poly so first of all, thank you for your kind message, Alex. On the polyamide 11 plant in fact, by the way and as you know, we are very transparent to you, etc., but we have on the technology, which is, I would say, the competitive technology to polyamide 11 polyamide 11 is superior in performance, but they are long-chain polyamide, which is PA12. Two of our competitors have done important expansion. So on the PA12, and they were more than a year largely more than a year late. So this means that in fact, this technical challenge, which is partly due to the complexity of this you don't have many players of this kind of process and to the tension on engineering, manpower, etc., is shared by many companies. You have more projects which are late.
Now, with regard to Arkema, it's not so much the size of the investment because we did also in Malaysia some investment, which is it's more the fine-tuning, in fact, because the plant was on time and on budget. It's more the fine-tuning, which we recognize took more time because there are a number of equipment which is three times superior also maybe we underestimated that three times superior to the one of normal technology inside Arkema. Okay? And the second thing, which is very special, it's a completely in-house process which really have been improved year after year since the past even before Arkema time in the past 40 years and which make it more difficult than the more standard process, I would say.
So, nothing at the end, nothing very significant, is a little bit of some time, matter of millimeters or nanogram or whatever, but which, I would say, make this delay. So we have to live with it, but we'll make it. We are very confident. And at the end, it's also what protects the technology, is that it is very complex. So let's take this positive point. On the adhesives, so with regard certain it will be, I would say, in 2022 maybe in 2023, what's the best way to express this? In 2023, it was more bottom-line growth than the top-line growth. In 2024, it will be more normal I would say, more normal growth, which means that the bottom-line growth will be supported by the top-line growth. You see what I mean?
So, we are now there. There will be some recovery in volume, which we start to see in adhesives because we have been suffering from this destocking for 18 months. So this will disappear. So we start to see that. And the unit margins are quite okay. So this is why we will grow. And on top of that, we have a little bit of bolt-on that helps. You have the Ashland acquisition where you get the synergy still. We have still 2-3 years of synergy to implement. So for all these reasons, we grow in adhesives, and we are happy to see that because as you know, it has been a bet of Arkema a long time ago. We have invested a lot. And now adhesives is really playing its role of something resilient with low CapEx. So good cash generation, and we appreciate it.
The next question is from Chetan Udeshi of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Follow up on the comment you made about the low end of the guidance, sort of not assuming any recovery because the way I was thinking about it, you were saying Q1 is, let's say, EUR 330 million. If I annualize it, I get to EUR 1.32 billion. I add all the contribution from new projects. Maybe I get to EUR 1.4 billion. So clearly, from EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion, which is the low end of the guidance, needs something, which could be a bit of seasonality, I guess. So I'm just curious what sort of assumptions you make from Q1 to low end to reach that number of EUR 1.5 billion. The second question was just going back to the contribution from the startup of the project. And I appreciate all of these are complicated projects, and that probably drives the differentiation.
But I'm also curious, given that you are missing essentially a quarter of startup contribution, how are you still aiming for the same contribution for the full year? Because I would have thought you are sort of ramping up in phases. So if you don't start up on time, you essentially lose the contribution for that particular quarter. So just curious, how is the number not lower given that it's been delayed by a quarter? And the remaining two questions are just financials. One, I didn't hear the CapEx guidance for this year, so appreciate if you can give that. And second, what is the depreciation number that we should have in mind as all of these projects start up in 2024? Thank you.
Okay. We let Marie-José on the third one. So on the first one, it's quite easy. It's the seasonality. I think Q1 is always one of the two lowest quarters, and this year is even compared to Q4 because the project will ramp up over time. So I think it's quite consistent. What you don't do is you don't take any seasonality. So it's a wrong calculation. If you do that over the year, if you take the past 5 years or 6 years, you will see that the math is working. So I think it's quite consistent. On the second one, so first of all, the EUR 60-70 million contribution is the sum of 5-6 main projects. So it's not just one. Secondly, on the polyamide, anyway, we took quite a low assumption in the first quarter because it's a quarter of ramp-up.
Don't forget, it's an expansion. So you need to have the sales beyond what we are doing from our plant in Marseille. So at the end, it doesn't make a material difference over just one quarter. So we are confident on EUR 60-70 million. And on top of that, we have some projects which will deliver more than we thought they would deliver. So with this addition, we are really confirming EUR 60-70 million knowing that we are always cautious when we give guidance on projects. So I think that you can be confident on that. On the guidance of CapEx, I think I already commented, and I say a good EUR 100 million more compared to 2023. But I will let Marie-José complete and comment on the depreciation charge if you want.
Okay. So yeah, just confirm what Thierry mentioned. So the CapEx are expected around the EUR 750-760 million for the year, which is roughly a linear approach compared to our CMD five-year term plan. And regarding the depreciation, we would be expecting to have progressively Nutrien and polyamide 11 injecting some depreciation charges. So the amount of amortization and depreciation should be around EUR 600 million versus EUR 560 million in 2023.
Thank you.
The next question is from Andreas Heine of Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for squeezing me. I actually want to learn a little bit more about the special expenses. In Arkema standard, it's almost EUR 260 million on EBIT to recurring EBIT is quite high. Could you split that out a little bit and give some guidance what we should expect for these special items going forward into 2024? Obviously, the CapEx guidance of 2024 is very much in what you have planned in this range, 2024-2028. However, looking on how many large products you had, I'm not aware about any really big size of ribbon what you are still undertaking in 2024. Maybe you can explain a little bit where these EUR 750 million will be spent more broadly. And then lastly, the acrylic acid margins in U.S. and Europe were probably not least down because of pressure from Chinese exports.
Do you see some relief on that, or is the pressure from exports from China still as high as we have seen it last year? Thanks.
Okay. So Marie-José, you can start, and I will do the last two.
Okay. So regarding the non-recurring expenses, as you know, we have basically, it's 50/50 between the amortization of the purchase accounting that we have on the M&A objects that we've acquired. So roughly EUR 130 million in 2023 are attached to those amortization of purchase price amortization mechanism. You should expect an increase of that linked to the PPA of PIAM that we will be doing in the year. So at this point, we have a preliminary goodwill and a preliminary PPA assumed. But of course, the exercise has not yet been fully concluded. So I have no precise number to give you. But let's say if you add EUR 30 million or EUR 40 million to this amount, it's probably not a bad assumption. Regarding the other items outside of the purchase accounting depreciation, we would have still some startup cost of Singapore at the start of 2024.
Roughly, the trend we've had is between, let's say, EUR 15 million-EUR 20 million per quarter. So you should still assume there will be impacts in the first quarter in terms of startup cost for Singapore. And then basically, the rest of the amount is pretty similar year-over-year. It's different restructuring and transactional restructuring that we do in Arkema. And despite it's, let's say, different projects, all in all, we traditionally spend EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million in terms of cash on various restructuring operations we do in the company.
Thank you, Marie-José. So on the CapEx, you have already a big part of the information. In fact, actually, Andreas, so as you know, we have the big decarbonization project in France, in the site of Carling for acrylics, which is one. From memory, you have the additive for biofuel in the US. They were all in the capital market representation, which is we ramp up quite quickly. We have organic peroxide in the performance additives in China for new energies, which is another one. You have the completion of the 1233zd project also, which is not finalized, which is also. And we have also more turnaround. Turnaround is not equal every year. It depends really on the legislation. So it's true that we have a bit more in turnaround this year.
So all in all, it makes the math knowing that last year, we had pretty much events on the big projects, so we didn't spend so much on that. And as you know now, in CapEx, we don't split between exceptional and recurring CapEx. So all in all, it includes everything. With regard to acrylics margin, U.S., Europe, we start to see some stabilization, but not so much because of the demand booming. It's more because of the Middle East logistics topic, Suez Canal, etc., where it limits the import. So you start to see now stabilization and some customers which start to see that it's not so easy to get product from China. So you have a little bit of relief, but it's moderate. So wait and see, I would say.
Thanks a lot.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Jaideep Pandya of On Field Research. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot. Yeah. First of all, congrats from my side as well, Thierry, for predicting the results exactly to EUR 1.5 billion for 2023. I have four questions. First question is on intermediates, actually. Could you tell us how much inventories do you have for R22 in the U.S.? Obviously, these days, you're hardly spending any money in CapEx in this division. So the cash flow is very exciting. So just want to understand how much can we go forward. And really, if I look at the valuation of this business of fluorochemicals, I get to a figure of around EUR 800 million-EUR 1 billion before you even entertain a buyer. So am I crazy, or am I not? That's my first question. Second question is on PI, actually. The management in PI is guiding for a sharp rebound in 2024.
It looks like the 2023 downturn was really just the top-line driven. So when you did your due diligence, how much did you challenge on the top-line side? I'm just wondering if there is competitive pressure, or was it just an end-market issue? That's my second question. The third question is on performance. Marie-José, you described this as the second half was very good. Could you tell us what error in performance additives? And the last question is really on high-performance polymers. I saw a Q4 versus Q3 sales increase in high-performance polymers. What was driving this, considering probably pricing in PVDF was Q on Q down? So what is really driving sales increase Q on Q? Thanks a lot.
Okay. Thank you, Jaydeep, for the question. So no, R22 now is quite low. So the values are completely out of scope. So really, we come to the end on this R22. So if it is your question, is that what makes the profitability of fluorogas? By far, no. Okay. And on PIAM, yes, we challenge really when we add the due diligence. So it's really linked to the macro only. It's electronics. It's rebounding. There will be a sharp rebound of PIAM profitability. It's not a matter of competition. They are very strong. I can tell you, technically, they have a superior product at a reasonable price. What is really encouraging us beyond the macro to peak is really the fact that we have now and we were very fast.
We have organized a lot of customer visits, starting with Europe and then U.S., because they are very small in these two regions. The welcome by all these customers that we have inside the company for other products was very strong. We see a lot of potential for this superior polymer. To make the story short, mostly macro-driven in terms of rebound, not problem of competition, and a lot of potential beyond the normal PIAM business with all the commercial synergy we see with them and technical synergy. With regard to performance additives on the third part of the year, I would say the two areas which perform very well were Thiochemicals, especially, and you will not be surprised, in the world of energy, either bioenergy or traditional energy.
And also, we had good development and growth in, if you remember well, I'm sure you remember well because you know all the detail of the ArrMaz acquisition on surfactants with mining and nutrition, which are two of the end market which, in the 2023 challenging economy, perform well. ArrMaz, beyond also all the work we are doing, benefited from these two markets. With regard to HPP, what the last question was on?
Yes. If I just you guys provide the detail on the split by quarter. If I just look at Q4 versus Q3, you grew, actually, I think, by EUR 16 million quarter-over-quarter in sales in HPP. So just curious what was driving this.
Maybe it's linked to one of the previous commands made. It was released the volumes in Asia, which were up. We benefited from it compared to last year. It's again a year-on-year comparison. But compared to last year, we had a good rally, I would say, in volumes in Asia with performance polymers.
Okay. Sorry, if I can just come back to my first question, intermediates. You started the process of divesting fluorochemicals. And I guess the market underappreciates the value of this. So how is the process going? And do you think that a number sub-EUR 500 million is something you're not interested in given the cash flow this business generates these days?
So I will make you softer. The priority, I think, as we say, at the Capital Markets Day, we confirm the intention to dispose of the business. But we say we'll take our time. And for the time being, we enjoy a good profitability of this business, which is really our best way to create value for our shareholders. So the intention remains the same, but we take our time on that. And don't forget that it's a business which, for certain lines, will decline because of the legislation. Okay? So there has to be factors in whatever valuation. So I will not speculate at all on valuation. What is important is that we enjoy a good cash generation from this business. And with that, we continue to do what we have done so well so far, is really to continue to invest in the other businesses. Okay?
Thanks a lot, Thierry. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Geoff Haire of UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Or I'm sorry, good afternoon. Most of my questions have been asked. I just had one. You comment on volume recovery in the second half of 2024. I just wondered what gives you confidence that you'll see that?
If I may, Geoff, if we made the two scenarios because we have a range, 1.5-1.7. So the second scenario, I would say the end of the range, the higher end of the range assumes a recovery, and the lower range assumes no recovery. So we are clear about that. So we have no crystal ball. What we think is that maybe two elements of what could support a recovery beyond the overall macro on which everybody can have the opinion. The first one is that the stock are low in the chain. I believe that. So this means that you don't need so much recovery to start to have certain tension. This is our feeling. Again, it's always difficult to know exactly where is the stock because the chains are long. But it's our feeling. The stocks are not too high.
Secondly, but you are more experienced than I am, when I look at the time for destocking and for really negative growth in chemicals, it's really a long time compared to our standard. So for these two reasons, it's beyond the overall macro, which is a shared topic, but more specific to chemicals, to what we have seen in the past two years, I think these two elements should be taken into consideration.
Okay. Thank you.
The message, maybe to complete, the message to my team is that we have to be ready when there is recovery, if there is recovery. But please focus on, as we did well in 2023 and before, focus really on our organic momentum. It's really what we control.
The next question is from Laurent Favre of BNP. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon, Thierry. Just one question from me. On PVDF, you had flagged that you're looking at a significant expansion in the U.S. at the CMD and that the FID was pending. I'm wondering, given all the uncertainty on the IRA and the elections, whether we should be assuming that the FID will be postponed at least to next year. Thank you.
All right. It's a good question. What we flagged at the Capital Markets Day was an expansion. We didn't say significant expansion, but it's true that in our CapEx envelope for years, it was meaning that it should be rather material. Beyond what we say, one of the elements we are monitoring is also the speed at which Gigafactory is the same for Europe, but also for U.S., will get implemented. So because of that, we take our time in order to now we have a scenario which is more and more refined, which is reasonable and likely to create strong value. The timing, I agree with you, depends on a certain number of factors. So my feeling is that we should be able to announce in the course of this year our plan. It's my feeling. But we will not spend too much money on that.
It will be limited money this year on this U.S. expansion. So wait a little bit. We take into account the evolution of the macro, the evolution of the speed at which Gigafactory will get implemented, certainly IRA, election, etc. But we want to grow in PVDF. So we have a plan. Normally, we should announce this year.
Excellent. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is a follow-up from Aron Cuccarelli of Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking the follow-up. I have one on pricing. If we exclude intermediates for a second and we assume there is a recovery happening from Q2 onwards on the second half, how do you think about pushing pricing at group level or by different segments? Is this doable, you think, in the current environment? Thank you.
I think you mentioned the answer more or less in your question, I would say. It depends really on the strengths of the recovery. The difficulty when you have this kind of environment is that you never anticipate what could be the impact of any recovery and at which speed it comes. So this means what we have seen in the past is that sometimes when the stocks are low, you have a sudden recovery, not necessarily very significant, but being there. And then you have some pricing power. But if you exclude intermediates, our policy is not to leverage too much the period of tension. This able to have pricing which is more stable, whatever the macro is. So your question, and it's a paradox, should more apply to intermediate than at the rest of the portfolio.
You have more stability of the net pricing in the rest of the portfolio than you have in intermediates where it's more cyclical, as you know. We prefer resilience and cyclicality. To answer your question, we'll see. It will depend on the recovery. If you have the combination at a certain point of recovery and low stock, it will help pricing. But I would say mostly intermediates.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
The next question is a follow-up from Jaydeep Pandya of On Field Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you. It's just on Coating Solutions that I've asked this question, I think, for the last couple of quarters. A lot of destocking last year in the value chain. Now your customers are all talking about volume growth this year of 1%-2%, maybe even a bit more. You did 12% on a low comp. What sort of volume growth do you think the chain will do this year? And is there any link between the volumes for your customers in coatings versus Bostik? So I'm just trying to understand if the paint and coatings guys do 2%-3% volume growth, is it fair to think that you will do 2%-3% volume growth in Bostik as well? Thanks.
So it's very difficult to give precise number because, first, it depends on the macro. As we say, we have different scenarios. And you have yourself a base in different scenarios. So the growth will be different depending on if you have a rebound on the market or not. Now, when you mentioned 1%-2% as a sort of intermediate scenario, yes, I think. But it's not the scenario only for coatings. It's a scenario for other businesses. Is there a link between coatings and adhesives? It depends really on the mix of market. Yes, they are both downstream. So you have some element of comparison. But then you need to look at what's the weight between construction outside of construction. And then you have some markets of adhesives which are big, which are smaller in coatings. Adhesive is everywhere. Coating is not really everywhere.
So this is why there are. But I would say, normally, yes, you have correlation, but not only between coatings and adhesives, but coatings and also all our businesses. If the world is growing a little bit, then you have a sort of medium scenario. Yeah.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
You're welcome.
This was the last question. I will now give back the floor to the speakers for the closing remarks.
Thank you very much for your attention. I hope that our answers were helpful. I wish you a very nice day. Don't hesitate, if you have any complementary questions, to come back to Beatrice and Peter for any other questions. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes this conference call. Arkema thanks you for your participation. You may now disconnect.