Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the turnover for the second quarter of 2024 Alten conference. You can choose the channel with the language that suits you best to follow this conference. In order to do so, you can click on the interpreting icon. If you want to follow this webinar in the best conditions possible, you can do so from the Zoom app or from your internet browser. You can send your questions directly in the Q&A tab, or you can raise your hand, and we will give you the floor at the end of the conference. Please write your last name and your first name in the area that is dedicated to that.
For those who are on your phone, you cannot choose the channel that you want to listen from that phone, so you will listen to the original, and you won't be able to follow the slides. We won't be able to identify you either, so please state your name before asking your question. If you would like to take part in the Q&A, you can raise your hand by clicking star nine, and you can open your mic by using star six. I will now give the floor to
Mr. Benoliel. Good evening. I'd like to thank you all for taking part in our remote conference regarding our business for the first quarter of 2024... first semester of 2024. It was an increase in our business compared to the previous semester. We have a growth of 1%, approximately.
The geographical or sectorial trends have not changed compared to the first quarter. At the end of June 2024, the turnover is at EUR 2.8 billion, so a 2.8% increase compared to last year. In France, our business has increased by 5.7%, and outside of France, of 1.6%. If we keep the same scope and the exchange rate, our activity only increases by 0.57% in France, and it is decreasing by 1.4% outside of France. This semester has had 0.6 fewer business days compared to last year, which has had a negative impact of 0.4% approximately on organic growth. I noticed that the slides are not on screen. I'm not sure why. There seems to be a slight glitch. There we go.
So at the second semester, overall growth has been of 2.8%, 5.4% in France and 1.6% outside of France. With similar data, it's of 1%, 5.4% in France, and -1.1% outside of France. The business rate of our group is at 98.91%. During the second semester, it was at 91.9% during the second semester of 2023, so a year ago. For the semester, our business rate is at 91.2%, against 91.8% during the first semester of 2023, which means 0.6% gap. This decrease of our business rate is the consequence of projects being postponed for budget reasons. It was postponed to the second semester for most of these projects. This has happened several times.
Some of our clients had validated a date to start projects, some of them quite significant in size, for the first semester or in June, and who, in the end, decided to postpone them to the second semester, mostly for management and cash flow steering reasons. The consequence is that we have more inter-c ontracts. We have a weekly monitoring of our business rate, which has allowed us to decrease to limit this rise in the inter- contract rates. But of course, there are consequences on our recruitment. So the headcount of our group has slightly decreased. We are now at 58,300, and we were at 58,400, and our, the number of engineers has remained the same. It was at 51,370, whereas we were at 51,400 back in March.
Overall, during the first semester, thus, the headcount of engineers has increased by 1,390%. 1,080 of them were hired, 10 only in France in this semester, 510 outside of France. 51,370 engineers in the group, 11,810 of them in France, and the rest outside of France.
[Foreign language]
Okay, there's still a problem with the slides.
[Foreign language]
You can see the second semester growth on screen only, but on the next slide, you can see both the sequential growth of Q1, Q2, and H1-
[Foreign language]
Might be more relevant. Indeed, it shows the growth dynamic for both semesters.
[Foreign language]
This dynamic is quite stable, as you can see, between the first and second semester.
[Foreign language]
Except for-
[Foreign language]
... two geographical areas, as we'll see, so the Iberian area, as well as Italy.
[Foreign language]
Let's start with France.
[Foreign language]
We have a good performance in spite of the fact that we have one business day less than last year, which has a 6% impact on organic growth.
[Foreign language]
Business in France remained dynamic in the automobile sector, defense and security, energy, and unfortunately, the retail, telecommunications, and finance have declined. For bank and finance, quite a significant decline. In the Iberian area, as you can see, the growth has rebounded to 9.5%, almost, in the second semester, taking the semester growth to 7.5%. All sectors are growing, except for bank finance-
[Foreign language]
... which is also declining, but only very slightly.
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In Italy-
[Foreign language]
... growth has continued to slow down.
[Foreign language]
... but it remained quite high because of almost 10% in the second semester.
[Foreign language]
It's of 11% on the entire semester. So all of the significant sectors are still growing strongly, except for the bank finance one, which is slightly decreasing.
[Foreign language]
In Germany, business has continued to decrease this semester, so -1 in Q1, -9.3 in Q2, which means that we have a decrease of 8.4% over the semester. The situation in Germany has not changed. The automobile sector represents half the turnover, and it's declining by 15%. In that sector, the subsector of OEM is still growing, but-
[Foreign language]
... now it is decreasing by 45%. In the aeronautics aviation sector, the activity has rebounded in the second semester, which is quite significant, a sector for Germany, and it's now increasing by 6% compared to last year.
[Foreign language]
However, the tertiary and electronic sector, which represents 10% of our German turnover, have seen their decrease-
[Foreign language]
Getting worse. In the U.K., we have quite a significant decline of business as well.
[Foreign language]
Even if it's not as bad as during the first quarter, we have a 12%-
[Foreign language]
Sector, which represents 45% of our turnover in the U.K.. Because of the acquisition of Methods two years ago, this public sector is significantly impacted by the decrease or freeze of public spending. However, defense and security are still significantly growing in the U.K.. In the Benelux region, we have a 2% growth. All of the significant sectors are growing except for electronics and semiconductors in the Netherlands, which is decreasing by 10%.
[Foreign language]
This is the case in all geographical areas for that sector. In Scandinavia, our business has continued to get worse because of the decline of the machine and tool sector and tertiary in Sweden and tertiary sector in Finland.
[Foreign language]
The eastern countries, and it's growing, whereas in Romania we have 10% decrease of our business because of the automobile sector, tertiary sector, and bank finance sectors.
[Foreign language]
In Europe, outside of France, our business is quite contrasted because there is a strong growth in some countries, except for Benelux. But there are countries that have a significant decline, which means that overall, our business is decreasing by 1.8% during the first semester.
[Foreign language]
In North America, all our business has started to rebalance in the second semester, even if it's still slightly declining over the semester. The US represents 75% of the area, and all of these significant-
[Foreign language]
Even in the banking sector, there is an increase in Canada, in spite of a decline at the end of last year. In Mexico, which was at 5% of the area-
[Foreign language]
... our business is growing significantly by 30% in banks, mostly.
[Foreign language]
The Asia-Pacific region-
[Foreign language]
... marginally, it is varied, still, is still impacted by the Ougier Group losing last year. And outside of Singapore, the area would not be of 1%-3%, but rather 4% if we exclude Singapore. China, 33% of the Asia-Pacific region, increase of 10% thanks to the automobile sector, but still penalized by telecommunication sector. India, 30% of the area, an increase of 13% thanks to the automobile sector. Japan, 20% of the area has seen a slowdown, and there's a decrease of 10% because of the tertiary sector. Korea, which represents 10% of the area, has also a slight decline of 2% only because of the semiconductor sector, which is decreasing by 10%. Now, if we analyze the business per sector. There we go. This is the relevant slide.
So you can see the shares of our turnover, which is very stable compared to last quarter. The automobile sector represents 18% of our turnover, has increased by 5% overall. All of the manufacturers are growing, are seeing growth, but 15% growth compared to last year, except for two of them, Ford in the U.S. and Hyundai in Korea. Even Volvo Cars in Sweden has started growing again. On the other hand, among OEMs, there is a decrease of activity, minus 20% overall. It's strongly impacted by the decline in Germany. The railway sector, 2.7% of our turnover, 6% growth. Aerospace, 15.5% of our turnover, still quite dynamic, a 10% growth, and it's even strengthened in the second quarter, even in Germany.
Nonetheless, we plan a slowdown from September because of Airbus's statements, more for the projects than for manufacturing. Defense, security, and naval business now represents 7.5% of our turnover, and they're increasing by 18%. The energy sector is growing by 2%, thanks to nuclear energy. Oil and gas is decreasing by 2%, whereas nuclear energy is increasing by 9%. Life sciences, 8% of our turnover. It's stable. Medical equipment is growing significantly. There's a slight decrease in the pharmaceutical sector because of a few big pharmaceutical companies. Electronics, semiconductors, there's a decline of 3% approximately because of a 10% decrease in the electronics and semiconductors sector, which is struggling in all geographies, as I mentioned earlier. Telecommunications decreased by 5% among operators as well as equipment manufacturers.
The bank finance sector is declining by 10% this year. It's the case in France even more than in other countries. In Canada, this business started growing again, as I mentioned previously, and in Southern Europe, the decline is quite... It's not very significant, 2%-3%, whereas it's above 5% in France. In the service, retail, and public sectors, there's a decline of 6%, mostly because of the budget cuts and cuts in the service sectors. This first quarter is similar to this first semester. We see that in macroeconomic terms, things have not improved. The growth of our business, whether it's sectorial or geographical, is not significant.
Regarding M&A, we announced an acquisition in Vietnam during the first quarter, where Alten finished an acquisition in Poland, in a company that is specialized in IT services, which has a EUR 18 million turnover... had a EUR 18 million turnover last year, and it has 250 consultants. These companies that we have acquired should be consolidated by the third quarter 2024. As you well know as well, Alten finalized the Worldgrid acquisition process, which means that we've signed a document that's allowed us to start exclusive negotiations. These negotiations are now actually over. Worldgrid is in the energy and utilities sector, in the nuclear sector in particular. And this acquisition process, we still need to have the authorization and the antitrust authority approval. The closing of this acquisition should take place by the end of the year.
They have EUR 170 million of turnover and about 1,000 consultants between France, Spain, and Germany. Most of them are actually in France. 650 of them, of those consultants, are in France. Regarding our outlooks for 2024, as anticipated, the first semester is in line with the first quarter. Nonetheless, no rebound of our business has been observed, and some projects have been postponed. Some of them are quite significant, even in the aerospace sector or automotive sector, because of free cash flow management problems. Nonetheless, the growth of our business is still satisfactory in many geographies, and the inter-contract rate is slightly higher than it should be, but it's perfectly under control. Except for the U.S., where we have positive signals, there is no sign of an improvement for the second semester.
To the contrary, Airbus' statements make us think that there will be difficulties in September. The political situation in France might also be bad for business because-- But to this date, we cannot say that some clients plan on postponing or canceling projects because of that political situation. We consider that it would be reasonable to change our organic growth plan, and we think it should be between 1.4, around 1.4%, even in worst-case scenarios. Our operational profitability will be negatively impacted because of this inter-contract rate, which is slightly above its normative figures, and the M&As will be lower than previous years, in spite of the budget reduction measures that we took.
Our operational margin for 2024 will thus be, unless there are other events taking place in the second semester, between 1.7% and 1.9%. So you will see that because of the timeline, there's a strong seasonality between S1 and S2. There's a difference of 3 business days between these two semesters, so our operational margin will be impacted by this number of business days and seasonality, which shouldn't change our outlooks of operational margin for the second semester, as I just communicated. That's it. So I will open the conference and let you ask your questions, as usual, so that I can answer them if there are any.
If we could maybe ask the moderator to open up the conference for the Q&A session, that would be better. Yes. So the conference is now open. We have participants asking for the floor, and the first question is coming from Mr. Buddhavarapu. You have the floor.
Hi, there. Thanks for taking my question. This is Aditya from Bank of America. First question, on your revised guidance of 1.1%-1.4% organic revenue growth for the full year, could you give us your underlying assumptions on what you think would be in terms of demand from Airbus or the political uncertainty in France, and especially in terms of any potential impact in other regions as well, including maybe the US, due to the political uncertainty? Second, could you just maybe also comment on... You've said that the projects have been postponed. Do you see those projects then coming in more in 2025, and therefore that should help the growth outlook in 2025?
And then finally, just on the operating margin targets, the 8.7%-8.9%, again, quickly just talk about some of the measures you're taking there on costs and, if, you know, how that could look like if the top-line outlook is, it gets maybe more tougher as well.
Yeah. Aditya, are you sure I got your questions, your last one?
The last one was on the operating margins.
Yes.
You said 8.7%-8.9% for the full year. Can you just talk about the underlying assumptions there on, on, in terms of cost savings as well?
It's quite difficult to answer your first and last questions regarding the assumptions that we took because this is a very detailed bottom-up analysis that we did customer per customer for the main ones and geography per geography leading to those numbers. So, regarding our forecast per customer, we took into account not a decrease, but a lower increase base at Airbus starting Q4 because we know that probably some project when they come to an end will not be fully replaced by project of the same size. And we also assumed that the manufacturing engineering activities would normally be much safer-...
As this is a key issue for Airbus than other projects, concerning the conception and R&D activities that probably will be postponed. So, we took some cautious assumptions in terms of how many people we expect to grow in Q3 and Q4, compared with what we expected, based on what Airbus told us during the first semester. And we hope that we, we have been cautious enough in order to anticipate what could happen. But at this stage, we have no official, let's say, communication from Airbus, saying that they will cut, I don't know, let's say 100 or 200 consultants, concerning our business with them.
Since the way it works is that we receive on a regular basis bids, and we answer bids. So if we receive less bids, and if when projects stop, are stopped because they are, they are finished, they are over, they are not replaced by new one, of course, it will generate a slight decrease or at least less growth than expected. Regarding now the margins, we based our assumptions on our mix, geographical mix, and accordingly, revenue increase. We have cut, of course, some SG&A starting the end of Q1, because we knew that 2024 will be difficult, as I told you during the previous call.
But we didn't expect, to be frank, and organic growth to be so, so weak, in 2024. So, to make it rough, if we lose EUR 100 million revenue, we lose roughly EUR 25 million-EUR 30 million EBIT, assuming that we can cut, we can cut some costs. So, it's mostly due to, our cost base for SG&A that we have anyway cut, than, to, the, bench. Even if we know that the bench will probably be higher than last year, we don't expect the bench to be much higher. I know that the impact of the bench on the profitability is quite, it's quite huge.
Because when we lose at one point of activity rate, so if we have an incremental 1 point bench, the impact on the EBIT is 70 basis points. So we took an assumption regarding the bench, of course, for the year, probably much closer to 91% than to 92%. And we also took assumptions regarding the revenue, you know, 1.1-1.4. And we looked at what could be the cost base for H2, and the result is what we say, 8.7-8.9.
Thanks, Bruno. One quick follow-up. On the Worldgrid acquisition, can you maybe give us some color on the rationale behind that acquisition? What it brings to you, to your business, and also maybe just on the multiple you're paying for that. It seems to be slightly higher than what you paid in previous M&A.
Definitely, the multiple is higher than what we usually pay for M&A. We cannot disclose the multiple we paid. We can just disclose the price that we pay. So the EV is EUR 270 million. This company is specializing in nuclear activities, as you know. In France, we say, control command. I mean, it's the software for the management of the nuclear plants. For us, this acquisition is a real, a real strategic one because it gives us a key positioning among the EDF world, and we expect the nuclear activities to grow fast in the future. As you know, there are new EPR to come, EPR2 , that will be delivered.
And also, EDF is about to launch very small nuclear plants. There are also export markets in which EDF is involved. EDF, for Alten, is a big customer today, and is a very strategic customer that we absolutely wish to develop. So, we accepted to pay a higher multiple than what we normally do for that reason, and because we think that it will help us to factor a higher growth with EDF in nuclear activities in the future.
Thanks a lot, Bruno. Appreciate it.
Thank you very much, and now we have a question from Mr. Emmanuel Parot, who is joining us by telephone. You have the floor.
[Foreign language]
Yes, thank you very much, Bruno. Can you hear me? Yes, I can.
[Foreign language]
I just had a couple of quick questions, if I may. The first is with regards to your recruitment policy. For the second quarter, we saw that on a like-for-like basis. Maybe you could give us... Is it down 10, or is it- or are there other considerations? Maybe you could just share a quick comment on how you are going to steer recruitment for the current quarter for September. What are the key points? The second question is the Worldgrid acquisition. Would it be possible for us to have an idea of the profitability of this acquisition or of the company that we have acquired? Because I had a couple of questions. My third question is with regards to prices.
Given development and the evolution of the context that we're currently in, who are the customers, or we can see competitors are maybe a lot more aggressive with their pricing. So what is our pricing strategy, given that we have competitors and clients who are more aggressive now? Thank you. So yes.
[Foreign language]
We were down 10-
[Foreign language]
... for the second quarter.
[Foreign language]
In fact, it was 140 in France, and up 130 internationally. So here, this was mainly in southern European countries-
[Foreign language]
... and offshore regions.
[Foreign language]
We lost 140 in France, Germany, Northern Europe-
[Foreign language]
... and Sweden.
[Foreign language]
There are projects that were postponed.
[Foreign language]
They weren't canceled, but they were moved to the second half year.
[Foreign language]
Which means that obviously, when we're talking about huge projects, we can't keep engineers that they're not working on anything. We can't keep them for three or four months, especially if we don't have certainty that the projects are going to be picked back up, or if they're going to be launched when we said they're going to be launched.
[Foreign language]
Which means that we had to have a very restricted recruitment policy. As you can see, for the figures speak for themselves, we didn't actually recruit in the second-
[Foreign language]
... quarter, so that we were able to monitor the different contracts and keep a level that was acceptable and also close to the norms. We have a recruitment policy that is very cautious, and it needs to be.
[Foreign language]
In September, we will be recruiting a number of engineers, as we are used to doing, so they will be recent graduates, but we're going to try and limit the number of the intake in September as much as possible. Obviously, turnover has also slowed down. We are about 25% for turnover, so we've come back to levels of turnover that are deemed to be normal. Salaries are also stabilizing.
[Foreign language]
There is even a decrease in salaries, for example, in Germany. We are recruiting for less money. The salaries offered are lower than they were, but this actually follows the market trend.
[Foreign language]
If we think about pricing, yes, we have some of our customers, and we do have a price dumping from our competitors, especially when they're offering project packages. As we are seeing bigger and bigger projects, when we have huge projects that are cropping up, we do have competitors who, looking at 50 or 100 people, and they-
[Foreign language]
Rather than make a margin on something, they want to ensure that they have all of the contracts, and so they give up on this.
[Foreign language]
However, there isn't generalized price dumping, and we're not seeing a decrease from the pricing asked for by our customers. However, there is a higher offshore demand that we're seeing. In France, we know that this is nothing new, but in other regions, there wasn't really an offshore trend for Germany or Scandinavia. We're now seeing that offshore is cropping up on the market for economic reasons and in quite a strong fashion.
[Foreign language]
Therefore, I think that the this offshore activity that is going to continue to develop.
[Foreign language]
We, well, probably in maybe 3 or 5 years' time from now, we will have to increase our offshore accounts. It's not going to be 50/50, obviously.
[Foreign language]
Offshore is 13%. When I'm saying offshore, it's offshore, so 13% initial of our group, and we'll probably move to about 20 or 25% by 2050, but in the next five years for that. For Worldgrid now, if I can't give you the multiple, I can't tell you what the profitability is, because obviously, you've got the other elements of the equation, so you'd be able to work out the multiple. We are committed to not sharing this information. The multiple is obviously above what we are used to paying, and in addition to this, the profitability is quite theoretical. Why? Because it is a company that was fully under the Atos's wing and integrated into the different shared services proposed by Atos.
Profitability is, and will be linked to what we want to plug in from a structural organizational point of view. Gross margin is coherent with the Alten gross margin, so that I can share with you. So if I can maybe rephrase the question, is it 10%? Are we looking at 10% profitability? For this, no, you'll have to wait so that we can learn a bit more about the company, because in reality, this information was provided during due diligence, but I can't really answer the question clearly today. Okay. So it's profitability that is higher than 10%.
We consider that often when we have acquisitions, the processes, everyone knows that profitability that is put forward by the seller is not always the actual profitability that we see, and this is why the implicit multiple is higher than what we're used to paying, because our assumptions are that the real, profitability will be lower than the profitability put forward. But it's not a standalone business, which means it would also develop on our capability to improve the gross margins and also the resources that we will plug in as well. Okay. Okay.
Thank you very much, Bruno. Thank you very much. We now have a question from Mr. Laurent. You have the floor.
Thank you very much. Good evening, Bruno. Good. We have three questions.
The first is, maybe could you go into further details with regards to the Airbus accounts and all of the for the whole of the financial year, maybe you could talk figures with us. What does this represent as a proportion? If I've understood from a services point of view, you think there will be an increase in turnover, and maybe you could give us the mix of what you're doing between the production or manufacturing point of view and the rest, so that we understand what the breakdown looks like and the difference in performance if we compare Airbus with other actors in the sector. The second point is the following: We've seen great performance in France, which is above what the rest of the market's doing, so, resilience with regards to our performance for the upcoming quarters, how are we going to do this?
The third point is costs. I'm not talking about user rates, I'm talking about structural costs here. If we were to take the assumption, I hope that this won't be the case, but let's say that there's no growth in 2025, what I want to maybe glean is: What is our ability to have a handle on our structural costs? What are the millions of euros that we will be able to adjust in order to compensate for the fact that there may not be any growth in 2025, so that we can still generate the operating margin that you mentioned? I don't know if you followed the question. No, yes. Okay, I understand. Airbus, to answer the first question, for the aeronautics core engineering aspects, so we're just working on the wings. This is 6.7% of our turnover, turnover.
The split, the exact split is not something that I can communicate right now, but majority is from consulting, design and R&D. There is a part that is important for manufacturing and engineering. It's a quite significant chunk. And we also have a lot of data science activity. The Airbus accounts this year, I think we're going to continue to see progress. I would imagine this would be about 10%, maybe a little bit less with the second half year compared to last year. For the first half year, we weren't that far off. It was due to 10% progression. If we take into consideration the slowdown for the second semester, and the fact that the statements were made by Airbus, we'll probably be slightly under this figure, but not that far. There won't be huge decrease for the Airbus accounts.
There may be a slowdown of growth rather than... and projects that may not be renewed in the fourth quarter. Why? Because when we look at the analysis of our project portfolio with Airbus, one thing that is certain is that there won't be any decrease for the growth of the current portfolio. I would actually think that there will even be new projects that will start for the third quarter. Therefore, if we were to have the curve that were to be inflected, this wouldn't be prior to the first of October. I'm not sure if that answers your question.
[Foreign language]
The second question was what?
[Foreign language]
The French market.
[Foreign language]
What is driving the French market? We've got the aeronautical industry. Obviously, we've also got Alstom.
[Foreign language]
With-
[Foreign language]
... with railway.
[Foreign language]
We have security and defense activity in France. This is significant.
[Foreign language]
This is between 15% and 20%. We also have automobile.
[Foreign language]
It is a very dynamic industry. Our portfolio in the automobile industry is essentially made up of manufacturers, which is not the case in-
[Foreign language]
In France-
[Foreign language]
... we can see that actually, a lot of these volumes are decreasing rather than having growth. The automobile industry in France has not been as hit by the decrease of this activity as it has been in other countries.
[Foreign language]
That we are still seeing growth, and this once again because of nearshore and offshore.
[Foreign language]
Lots of projects that are-
[Foreign language]
... That, nearshore and offshore projects that are accounting for more of the weighting.
[Foreign language]
France is the one invoicing the project at the end of the day. This goes into France's balance sheet. There will be a slowdown, 5-7.
[Foreign language]
Despite a decrease of the sector or negative growth in the sector, generally speaking.
[Foreign language]
Sorry.
[Foreign language]
What about the splits for the second half year?
[Foreign language]
It's not going to be that different to what we've seen for the first half year. Is that what you're saying?
[Foreign language]
In a nutshell-
[Foreign language]
In a nutshell, there will, I believe, that-
[Foreign language]
France will be able to maintain the level of five.
[Foreign language]
Abroad, it will depend on what the market is saying.
[Foreign language]
But in France, we're looking between 4.5 and 5.5 for the year.
[Foreign language]
We haven't yet-
[Foreign language]
Done this. But it would depend on our landing for 2024. At the end of this year, we have reduced our costs over the first half year, and we need to continue with this endeavor in 2025.
[Foreign language]
But what is sure-
[Foreign language]
... is that if we think about euros-
[Foreign language]
Costs for 2025 will be lower than those incurred in 2024-
[Foreign language]
... because we are taking the necessary measures-
[Foreign language]
To look at cost reduction.
[Foreign language]
Budgets will also be revised.
[Foreign language]
If we're looking at the same revenue or turnover, the answer is simple: the margin will not be any worse than it is this year.
[Foreign language]
OK, and just a last precision, if I may. If we look at the H1 against H2, here, we're talking about three points difference.
[Foreign language]
So the first half year will be a little bit over two.
[Foreign language]
So over eight, rather.
[Foreign language]
So, two weeks ago.
[Foreign language]
Compared to last year, obviously.
[Foreign language]
We're down one and up two. There'll be more of these in, businesses in-
[Foreign language]
Working days in-
[Foreign language]
... the first-
[Foreign language]
The first half year than the second half year.
[Foreign language]
We hope that this will be between 9.5 and 10 for the second half year.
[Foreign language]
There will be an impact, but it won't be that important. Thank you very much. Have wonderful holidays, everyone. Thank you. Thank you. Goodbye.
[Foreign language]
Thank you.
[Foreign language]
We don't have any more questions.
[Foreign language]
Maybe we can conclude. Oh, yes, I spoke too soon.
[Foreign language]
Mr. Nicolas David, you have the floor.
[Foreign language]
Can you hear me?
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
The last comment on margins for S1 and S2.
[Foreign language]
You're going to be above eight during the first semester and close to 10 for S2.
[Foreign language]
We have a yearly margin that's at nine or even slightly above that.
[Foreign language]
Then we have the holidays during the second semester.
[Foreign language]
Something that we tend to forget, but when people don't work, we don't make any money.
[Foreign language]
This has an impact on our margin.
[Foreign language]
So people-
[Foreign language]
... take leave
[Foreign language]
There's no cost or marginal cost, because their paid holidays are paid already, but we don't make any margin in the meantime.
[Foreign language]
So this means that the-
[Foreign language]
Weighing of the turnover during the second semester means that we have two extra working days. That's a fact, in the calendar, compared to last year.
[Foreign language]
Last year, there were holidays as well, but the number of days worked because of these holidays.
[Foreign language]
During the second semester.
[Foreign language]
Usually, the number of days worked is lower during the second semester than the first one, because more people go on holidays at that time.
[Foreign language]
Sorry, I cut you off.
[Foreign language]
No, no, that's it. I, I did not understand. So if you already think that you're above 8 during S1 and slightly above 10-
[Foreign language]
For S two. If it's 9.5-
[Foreign language]
If it's close to 10-
[Foreign language]
... that's where we're at, 8.7 or 9.
[Foreign language]
No, I understand the higher figures, but not the lower ones. And your weighing. I wasn't sure. I understand better now. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
OK.
That's it for me. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
You have another question? Mr. Derric Marcon, you have the floor.
[Foreign language]
Good evening, Bruno.
[Foreign language]
Just a quick question for you-
[Foreign language]
... regarding our competition.
[Foreign language]
In the automobile, automotive sector, you said that the problem is with OEMs, and we've seen contract types-
[Foreign language]
ZDF or similar things.
[Foreign language]
With offshore pure players in the automotive engineering sector.
[Foreign language]
Are these contracts that you were pitching on, or is it completely outside your scope?
[Foreign language]
Can you tell us a little bit about our competitors?
[Foreign language]
The contracts that they've won, do you think that... are there contracts that you had a bid for? I don't know the detail of the deals that they gained, but-
[Foreign language]
... when it comes to soft, they won bigger deals with fixed price, prices. And for the big deals in fixed price for soft-
[Foreign language]
We're not necessarily competitive enough.
[Foreign language]
It's true that KPIT is an Indian company.
[Foreign language]
They're specialized on onboard software in automobiles. It's the bulk of their activity. It's a great company, and they are willing to take those risks. So these projects, as you say, they-
[Foreign language]
They take part in bids among the automobile sector. And-
[Foreign language]
For you, the margin has increased between the work package-
[Foreign language]
... where you manage a significant part of the project and fixed price, because-
[Foreign language]
These technologies are quite stable around ADAS entertainment.
[Foreign language]
Why don't you try to get these deals today? We do. We apply, but if they've won them, it's because they were cheaper.
[Foreign language]
You said you don't have fixed prices. No, we don't have big fixed prices-
[Foreign language]
... or onboard software.
[Foreign language]
We do it a little bit, but these are projects that are quite risky.
[Foreign language]
This is not only for the automotive sector, actually.
[Foreign language]
Okay, I have a second question regarding the,
[Foreign language]
User rate.
[Foreign language]
91% for Q2. Is this low?
[Foreign language]
Or do you think that for Q3?
[Foreign language]
To be clear, is that there will be a stabilization of the business rate around 91%.
[Foreign langauge]
Because in the history of Alten, of course, at times it was lower, but 91 is quite far from your-
[Foreign language]
... norm of 92.... Yes, for sure. So your business managers today are probably focusing on optimizing the user rate rather than trying to find new projects. But both are linked, in any case, because what are we anticipating for the second semester? So the projects that were postponed, it's something that happens. Managed with a better steering of recruitment and people leaving over time, so this means that there's not been a peak of people in inter-contract because, except for Germany, for instance, we've had such a peak at 10%-11%. It took us slightly less than two months to make up for that. And then, our assumption as well, for H2, is that in the current macroeconomic environment, which is quite gloomy, with Europe that is struggling, there's only the U.S. that seems to be doing slightly better and we'll see.
In Korea, we can see that they're also struggling. So our assumption is that the average size of projects is likely to decrease in S2. It's usually what happens when clients are trying to save money. Say, if we have a 30-people project that is stopping, then we have to take part in a bid for 20 or 25 people at least, even if this means that we have to postpone projects. This means that structurally, when we have more people that have finished their projects than others that are starting new projects, we, well, we also have more people that are in inter contract for two or three weeks. So we decided to have more conservative assumptions. We're not in a crisis either, but we decided to align with what we had in Q2, rather than to...
Think that we would have the 92% figure, which is the one we have usually. As Emmanuel highlighted, in September, October, we will recruit people, which means that we need to... we need to hire these young people. Because we need to prepare for project management next year. We need these new recruits, and we will get them in September, October. So even if we are a little more cautious, we will still have people in Inter-Contract around that time. So business managers at the end of Q2 reacted and reduced their level of recruitment, but for H2, they are even more aware of those difficulties and will probably recruit even less people to optimize their user rate. And there are people who will leave, as usual. If we look at Q2, if we take assumptions at group level, we're at zero.
So it means that people are monitoring, but it's this phenomenon that I'm describing. With these projects that have been postponed, others have been stopped, because when a project is over, it's over. And there are new projects that start, but at a time when it means that there will be inter-contract. This is day-to-day business.
Okay.
Okay. Thank you, Bruno. But of course, if we reach 92, it will be even better. No, but we've seen IT companies with worse figures than -10, and yet they managed to have user rates that were optimized, even if by optimizing their staff hiring. We'll see. We'll see the rates in October. We'll talk about this again.
Merci beaucoup.
Thank you very much. Thank you, Bruno. Bye, Derric.
Merci.
Thank you. There are no more hands raised. Do not hesitate if you still have questions. If you don't have any more questions, then thank you. Thank you for taking part in this conference before your holidays. I wish you to enjoy this break, and then I will see you again in September. On the twentieth of September, we will have our next meeting to tell you about results, and I will be delighted to talk to you again at that time. Thank you. Bye.