Good day. Welcome to the Covivio 2021 half-year results. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Christophe Kullmann, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Welcome, everybody. This H1 result from Covivio. I will immediately start by page four. The first half has been dynamic for Covivio on all fronts. On offices, we managed to sign 140,000 sq m of new contracts and renewals. Our value are slightly up. This is mainly thanks to our development pipeline. On German resi, we continue to reinforce ourselves on the back of strong rental and value growth. Finally, on hotels, activity is bottoming out. We see positive signals of recovery. On the financial front, page five, we had also a very good first half. Value at up as by 2%. EPRA NTA by 3%. EPRA earnings by 7.5%. Let's move on page seven and discuss our ambition in term of carbon reduction.
We have decided to do our part in tackling climate change early on, more than 10 years ago, when we first set up an environmental targets. In 2018, we had set up a CO2 reduction target of minus 34% between 2010 and 2030, in line with the two degrees target of Paris Agreement and approved by the SBTi. This target applies to all scopes and includes construction renovation. Two year later, we are ahead of our target with a 20% reduction at the end of 2020. We thus decided to intensify our ambitions. Moving on page eight, we describe our new targets. On Scope 1 and 2, which relates to emission we have a direct control on, we want to be carbon neutral by 2030. That means decreasing even more our emissions and compensating the remaining parts.
On Scope 3, which include construction and renovation, we go further by aligning our target with the well below two degree scenario. That is more than the Paris Agreement target. We will do so by factoring low carbon construction and partnering with our tenants to reduce consumption and purchase green electricity. Let's move on office activity for the first half, page nine. Market activity has been impacted by the lockdown for other Q1, but is improving since Q2, especially in Paris and Milan. At the same time, we see an increasing polarization between location and quality of buildings. In this environment, our strategy is performing well. First, accelerate asset rotation. Since the beginning of the crisis, one and a half year ago now, we have sold EUR 1 billion of offices at an average 5% margin compared to the last appraisal value.
To continue to reinforce centrality and new service offer to client, we have increased our exposure to inner Paris and Milan by five points on average. To pursue development pipeline on the back of its strong track record on high quality of project. Two figures to illustrate that. Our 63,000 sq m delivered in H1 are let at 97%, and all of our commitments planned in the second half of the year will be located in the CBD of Paris, Milan, or Berlin. Accelerate on transformation of obsolete office into resi. Since end of last year, we have strongly accelerated our residential pipeline in France. To go more into detail on each part of our office strategy, let's start with disposal. We have signed EUR 334 million of new office disposal agreement in H1 with a 2% margin above last appraisal value.
We sold mature asset and non-core offices. Two example. In France, we sold two offices in Lyon on either suburb or Lille for EUR 94 million. It is a good example of our know. On Lyon 288, for instance, we bought the asset in 2001 for EUR 16 million, did a full asset management work in 2018 with a CapEx program to improve energy efficiency and the renewal of the lease of the maintenance in this. With this disposal, we generate more than 60% value versus full investment cost. In Italy, we sold mainly Telecom Italia offices above last appraisal value. Those disposals contribute to improve our centrality profile. As you see, page 13, we have a high quality office portfolio diversified in term of geographic exposure in the center of Paris, Milan, and of the top German cities are in the best area of top business districts of those cities.
The office profile has been strongly reinforced in the past years. Other pillar of our office strategy is the development pipeline. This is the best answer for the new office environment by offering new buildings well located with the best energetic standards and offering full range of services and flexibility. The success of the development pipeline is the best proof of the relevance of our strategy. We signed close to 40,000 sq m of new contracts in the first half with an average lease maturity of 10 years. Let's focus on the example of Snam, page 15. We signed an agreement with Snam, the leading Italian natural gas company, to build their new headquarter of 19,000 sq m in our area of Symbiosis in Milan. Lots of interesting outcome in this transaction. Snam did not reduce its surface need versus when we start the discussion in 2019.
It is also a new illustration of the attractiveness of the Symbiosis area, which welcome now Fastweb headquarter, LVMH, and Berger. Finally, it bring value creation with 20% margin on this deal. Tomorrow, we have an additional value creation potential with two more buildings that we can build in Symbiosis on a plot of land in the north, in Scalo Porta Romana. Moving to page 16. Our development pipeline at end of June amounts to EUR 1.3 billion in Paris, Milan, and Berlin. In H2 this year, we will deliver Silex² in Lyon CBD and Symbiosis D in Milan, two assets, two third pre-let on average. The rest of project will be delivered by 2025 and will participate to increase our portfolio quality and create value. In total, we target above 30% value creation, which mean EUR 450 million, of which EUR 250 million are not in the account yet.
Tomorrow, we will continue to offer additional prime project. I am on page 17. In the next few months, we will launch five additional projects, all in the CBDs of Paris, Milan, and Berlin. Those developments are expected to bring EUR 200 million additional value creation. In parallel, offering prime office development, we accelerate on the transformation of obsolete offices into resi. By the end of the year, we will have multiplied by seven times of French resi post pipeline up to 1,500 units and EUR 250 million with 10% average margin on sale. There is more to come. We have already identified more than 200,000 sq m of future project. This leads me to resi in Germany. Page 20. Two words on the market. The trends are well known. The lack of offer is driving rents and price up, regulation is not helping to improve the situation.
In this topic, the news of the first half has been the cancellation of the Berlin rent cap, which had completely frozen the market last year. In this context, we continue to reinforce ourselves in Germany. I am page 21. During the first half, we bought for EUR 140 million resi units in Berlin. The price is in line with the average valuation of our portfolio for assets very well located in the center of Berlin. The yield of 3.5% offers high growth potential with rents 20% below the regulated rents and 60% below the market level. We also reinforce ourselves through development, as you can see, page 22. Our pipeline has continued to grow with now more than 1,000 units under construction, most of it in Berlin, and 2,700 units that will be built in the future. For this, we expect above 35% value creation.
Strong market fundamentals, high-quality teams, and strong pipeline to continue to grow are the basis of the very good result we reached in the first half. Rents are up by 3.8% on like-for-like basis. Occupancy rate is close to 99%, values are up by 7.4%. Of course, the situation is not the same in hotels today, the growth prospect is large, and we start to see light at the end of the tunnel. Where do we stand on the hotel markets today? I am page 25. The first half has been impacted by the lockdown in Europe, as soon as restrictions are lifted, the occupancy rates start to increase rapidly. The chart shows the RevPAR performance versus 2019 level. You can see that in the U.S., we already are above 2019 levels. This is very encouraging for the future in Europe.
On the investment market, page 26, the situation is improving since the Q2, EUR 4.7 billion have been done during the first half. More interestingly is that we do not see any distressed price. You can see the pricing of few transactions made in France, Spain, Germany, or in the U.K., all are levels in line with 2019. In this environment, we can rely on very well-diversified portfolio, as shown, page 27, in terms of geography, in terms of hotel scale, but also in terms of tenants. We work with all the major hotel operators in Europe. More importantly today, our portfolio is strategic for hotel operators. We put two key figures, page 28. First, the quality of location. Our hotels are ranked close to 9 out of 10 at booking. Second, the capacity of the operators to pay the rents with an average 60% effort rate before the crisis.
Our hotels are sustainable for hotel operators. It explains why our collection rate is high. Operators just need us to help them with their short-term liquidity needs. Finally, our portfolio is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery. I'm convinced we have reached the bottom. The need to travel and meet is a primary need for people. The first clients to come back will be domestic clientele and for leisure. Our portfolio is well fit for this, with 80% of the clients of our hotels that are domestic, European people, and close to 60% of leisure clients. I move the floor to Paul.
Thank you, Christophe. I would like to start by the comments on our financial results by giving more colors on the office letting activity on page 31. Despite the lockdown, H1 has been an active first half for us, with 140,000 square meters of new contracts and renewals signed. On the new lettings, we have reached 9 years of average maturity. In France, the activity has been good on our development pipeline, but also on some assets like Carré Suffren in Paris, which is now fully let. We also have been able to renew the lease on the Eiffage headquarter in Vélizy, a 33,000 campus now let for 10 years. In Milan, the dynamic is very good. Christophe talked about a Snam transaction. We also signed close to 5,000 square meters in Symbiosis D to be delivered this year.
On Torre Garibaldi, we have been able to re-let 2,400 square meters with a +40% increase versus previous rent. Finally, in Germany, following a stricter lockdown, market reopening came later than in Paris and Milan. Nevertheless, we have been able to improve slightly the occupancy rate and sign new lettings in Hamburg and in Munich. Page 32, what does it mean for our revenues? Let's first focus on offices and residential, where revenues are almost stable on a like-for-like basis. The negative impact of offices is mainly explained by tenant departures of last year, having a full effect this year. In residential, the performance, as described by Christophe, is very good.
Finally, our hotel portfolio has been impacted by the restrictions, but also suffers from a negative base effect as the performance in January and in February in 2020 were very good with no restrictions. Moving to page 33 and to the P&L. Despite the impact of the crisis in our hotel revenues, we have been able to deliver a strong +7.5% growth in EPRA earnings in H1. This is mainly thanks to the good performance in the German residential business, also to the growth in our property development margins in offices and in residential. Finally, this is also thanks to the improvement of the cost of the debt. On the portfolio side, page 34. The +2% like-for-like value increase demonstrates the good positioning of our assets and is a reward for our investment choices.
The +0.6% on offices is mostly driven by our development pipeline, which boosts the performance together with the positive dynamics that we experience in Paris and in Milan. A small part of the portfolio is suffering from negative outlook in terms of rental dynamic, particularly outside Milan and in La Défense and Paris La Défense. German residential continues to perform well on the back of low price per sq m, as you can see here, and rental growth prospects. Finally, in hotels, as Christophe mentioned before, the investors' appetite for hotel real estate is large. In this context, our hotels valuation are stabilizing, except a specific situation in the U.K., which represents 13% of the portfolio. Just to show you two examples on page 35 and 36 of our capacity to create value on our office portfolio.
First, page 35, we put a delivery of the first half, Flow. It's an office building located in Montrouge in a growing area of the Greater Paris that will benefit from the arrival of the new Metro Line 15. We bought this obsolete building in 2015, managed to get a building permit with a +30% increase in the surface. Two years before delivery, we pre-let all the building to a subsidiary of EDF Group, in total, effective value creation for this project has reached 78% versus 37% initially. Another example on page 36, Jean Goujon in Paris CBD. For those who remember, we bought this building in 2018 in exchange of our headquarters in Paris, Avenue Kléber. We expected initially EUR 820 per sq m rent with a 20% value creation.
Finally, we have been able to sign a first lease for 46% of the building one year before delivery at a record level of rent. Our value creation target has now doubled to 40%. The disposals activity is another success of the first half on page 37. With EUR 404 million new disposals agreement, we are well on track on our target to sell more than EUR 600 million by the end of the year. More than 80% of this disposal program has been made on the offices, following our will to increase office rotation, and more importantly, the margin of those disposals versus the last appraisal value is close to 4%. This is a strong support to our portfolio valuation. Our balance sheet continue to offer solid characteristics as you can see, page 38.
LTV is stable at 41%, despite the dividend payment that has been made fully in H1, which accounts for 1.9 points of LTV. We also continued to lower our cost of debt to below 1.2%, and we have very limited debt coming to maturity in the next three years. Yesterday, we issued a new bond at Covivio Hotels level of 8 years and 1% coupon. This success, with more than EUR 2 billion of demand, will enable us to improve again the average maturity of the debt, and it shows the interest from investors for hotels. Moving to page 39, the increase in property values, and the EPRA earnings enabled us to increase the NAV by around 4% year-over-year. Our EPRA NTA, which is close to the former EPRA NAV, has increased by 3.4% to EUR 101.6 per share at the end of June.
I now let the floor to Christophe.
Thank you, Paul. Saying some words on outlook before answering your questions. Following this good start of the year and also what we have done in the first half, we have decided to increase a little bit our guidance between now EUR 219 million and EUR 400 million, depending on the evolution of the activity in hotels in the second half, because it's remaining a lot of uncertainty in the activity. In the medium terms, we can really rely on growth driver on each of our asset classes, as you can see, page 42. In offices our committed projects will enable us to catch EUR 450 million of value creations that are not today in the NAV. In German resi, the low level of the rents and the values will continue to drive the growth in the next few years.
In hotels, recovery is slowly starting, but when we compare our revenue with the level before the crisis, it is EUR 70 million of additional revenue that we can expect for the future. We will answer your question with Paul, but also Tugdual Millet, which is with us, and Olivier Estève.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow the signal to reach our equipment. Again, that is star one to ask a question. We'll pause just for a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for a question. Thank you. We'll now take the first question from Alvaro Soriano at Exane BNP. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much. Can you hear me well? Hello?
Yes. Hello.
Perfect.
I can hear you.
Perhaps the first question is on your pipeline. You say in the results that around EUR 450 million should be expected in terms of gains, coming from your projects. Over what period we should assume those gains are going to come in? That would be the first one.
What you can say is that it's linked to the pipeline, which is really close to be committed. It's in the next 4 years. That's what you can say.
Yeah. Thank you. Continue with these pipeline gains, I guess EUR 200 million should be assumed more short-term. Yeah, we should assume those first EUR 200 million coming in the next 2 years, right?
EUR 200 million are linked to the projects which are already in the pipeline, as the other part is really close to be committed in the coming months, I have to say. That's why you can spread that on average onto the next 4 years.
Okay. Understood. Thank you. The next question is on your revised EPRA earnings guidance. The obvious question is what has changed for that 2% increase on earnings?
First effect for us, we have the residential activity that is doing better with the Mietendeckel cancellation, obviously. This is the main explanation of this improvement of the guidance. At the same time, the hotel activity has been impacted in the H1, but we feel that we can see some recovery in the H2.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you. Probably the last one on my side. We've seen that on French offices, occupancy continue to be weak. As you said, also some tenants depart last year. Perhaps when we can see the trough in terms of occupancy rate for your French office portfolio?
What we can say on this part is that we had a decrease of the occupancy, thanks to operations that was linked to 2020 decisions. Really now what we see is really better trends in the discussion we have. We are at more than 92% occupancy rate. We expect to increase it a bit until year-end, but that will depend on current discussions that we have with some potential tenants.
Okay. Thank you very much for answering my questions.
We'll now take the next question from Florent at Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. I would have the first question, maybe on the pipeline. Because you insist on the value creation that you can have in the next years on the pipeline. Would it be possible maybe to have an update on your pre-letting level of your pipeline for 2021 and 2022, for example?
In the appendix, I think you have something to comment that. I'm looking for the right appendix. It's a page, I don't know which is the page.
Page 52.
Fifty-two.
Okay.
You have the detail on the pipeline and what is new. What improved during the first half is what we say in Silex². Today, it's 64% prelet, and we hope to increase that before year-end to close to 100%, because we have strong discussion on this part. Jean Goujon, that will be delivered next year. Today, we are at 36%. That what we have today, thanks to the negotiation with Roland Berger. It will be delivered mid-next year. On the other sub-projects, So Pop and N2 today we have no prelet situation, but on these two assets, I have to say we have current discussions, and we hope to have good news to share before year-end. Lyon Seven is a small asset in Lyon, nothing dramatic.
Levallois, it's also a delivery of next year, I have to say the market is less today attractive, we have first talk, but I cannot say that we are close to a negotiation. On Dassault Systèmes extension in Vélizy is fully prelet. On Bordeaux to date, 51% prelet, but it will be delivered only in 2024.
Okay. On a general manner, you are comfortable to increase shortly this preletting level as a result?
Yes. We are confident. What is sure is that, just to go back to the value creation and to the potential value creation and the rent, also linked to this asset. We review completely also the portfolio, thanks to the evolution, and we reduce a little bit the target rent, for example, in So Pop or in Levallois. We take that into account. It's a calculation of the potential value creation we just said before. Really that's something that's why we are confident on these values and the capacity we will have to extract this value in the coming years.
Okay. Thank you. Maybe now, a question on hotels. Would it be possible maybe to have more color on when you expect the situation to come back to normality? Maybe also, when shall we expect that your EUR 70 million rental upside could be recorded in your accounts?
Let Tugdual , you know CEO Hotel to answer directly the question.
I would like to answer to this question, to be honest what we can share on what we see today. The recovery is fairly encouraging, starting in June. June has been, let's say, more than two times better in terms of revenue than it was in May. July seems to be quite positive. I would say even better than what we expected few weeks ago. To date, the recovery phase is quite good. The big question is around September, where you probably know that September and October are very strong months in terms of hotels and particularly on the business activity. It will really depend on how comfortable are people to travel for business purpose. We have on the books of the hotel that we are closely monitoring some encouraging booking in France, but also in Germany.
As it is fragile, this is the reason why we still have reflected this uncertainty in the new guidance that we give. That's for, let's say, short-term comments. On the longer term, it has been described by Paul, the split of our customer mix. Let's say based on that, based on the fact that an important part of our portfolio is with a customer mix that is mostly domestic customers, but also predominantly for leisure purpose. We expect the recovery to the pre-COVID level to be somewhere around 2023, hopefully. That means in two and a half years from now.
Okay. Thank you very much. Maybe, last question. You have been very active, still in H1 2021, in terms of activity. What would be your strategic priorities for H2?
A lot of things as usual, because as we are diversified, we have a lot of things to continue to deliver. I think really one of the key points for us, if I stay on the hotel part, is to work on the U.K. portfolio because as of today, we continue to book in our assumption zero rent in 2021 on this portfolio. It's really something that we have on the table and on structural table to manage for the future. One other point important is to improve the occupancy in the office in Germany, where with the lockdown, it was not so easy to manage this story and so on.
Now it will be easier and we really, especially on the Düsseldorf Herzogterrassen asset, we want to clearly improve the quality of the asset to position it differently in this very good market for the future. I have to say, we have to continue also to work on the tenant side because as I expressed before, the letting challenge remain also important in the French office part portfolio. That I have to say for us, the three main challenges that we have. Really what I can share in term of mood, in term of environment, we see really the things evolving well. Now we are always depending on the evolution of the sanitary situation. What we see today in our direct environment is really better mood for a lot of companies, with a lot of talks that are going back for new leases.
What Tugdual said also in the hotel sector, when we are looking to what is on the books today compared to what it was just three weeks ago, it's really better. We expect that situation will continue to improve in the coming months, but that will also depend on the evolution of the sanitary situation.
Okay. Thank you very much.
We'll now take the next question from Christopher Fremantle at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. I just have a couple of small questions. The first is on the question that was asked before about the earnings guidance. I think you said that the reason for the difference was mainly in residential. I'm assuming that you mainly are referring to the impact of the Berlin rent decision. If not, perhaps you could be a little bit more specific there, please. Secondly, the value creation target that you highlight, how is that EUR 450 million different from where we were when you published your full year results? Again, I can go back and look, but if you had that number to hand, that would be helpful. The third question was just on LTV targets. I think previously you had communicated an intention to target below 40% LTV.
I wondered whether that guidance was still valid or whether you had changed your view on that.
Thank you for this question. The first point, yes, what is clear is the main driver, thanks to this evolution of the guidance, is linked to the consolidation of the Mitteldeutsche, because, in the initial guidance we get, we take into account the current low that was with the Mitteldeutsche. The consolidation has roughly an impact between EUR 8 million, something like that, in our accounts of 2021. That's the main impact, and after that, compared to what we imagined initially, really hotels are less good because we don't expect a third, let's say, lockdown and what arrived the first half, but in the offices is slightly better. That's on the guidance. We remain with the guidance, with brackets, and because there is really, we have still uncertainty in the hotel sector.
On the pipeline, we review completely the pipeline, yes, in terms of value creation potential, take into account really what we see in the market. That means continuing compression of the cap rate, in the CBD location and evolution of the rent in peripheral locations. That's really what we take into account to adapt that. I don't have exactly the previous figures, but we can share that. Paul perhaps is.
We announced EUR 500 million. Today we are at EUR 450 million. We catch a bit of this value creation already in H1.
That's also one of the reasons of this evolution. The third point, in terms of LTV target, we don't change the target. The long-term target we have is to be below 40%. That's what we expect to be soon in this target.
Sorry, one follow-up, if I may. Just to understand your guidance as well, you say it's dependent on hotel activity. What are you basically assuming for RevPAR relative to 2019 numbers within your updated guidance? I appreciate that's maybe an overcomplicated question, maybe you need to get back to me on that. It'd be helpful to know what you're assuming so that we can understand your guidance in the context of how RevPAR turns out in the second half.
Let's say in the high range of the guidance, we expect a strong recovery in the second part, so in Q4, with occupancy rates that could reach 40%-60% in Q4 on our hotel portfolio.
40%-60%? Did I hear that right? Sorry.
That's right. 40%-60%.
Perfect. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Once again, to ask a question, please press star one. We will now take the next question from Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard at Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hello, guys. Just coming back on the guidance, just to make sure that 100% of those EUR 8 million coming from a positive impact of the federal court on the Berlin rent cap is now included in the guidance. Just coming back also on the question of Chris, just to understand how 2021 will compare in 2021 for the hotel segment. Is it okay to say that you are expecting total revenue slightly below 2020 in 2021 then? Just to make sure to really understand the guidance.
Yes, the full impact is integrated in this guidance. For the hotel activity in the low range of the guidance, that means that we don't expect any improvement of the hotel activity on the low range of the guidance. On the high range of the guidance, we expect the start of a strong recovery in Q4.
Okay. Thank you, Paul. Just coming back on your accounts, just to understand, what is the detail on this income from other revenues that have been multiplied by three?
This is basically what I said during the presentation. It's the property development margins. We have some property development activity in offices and in residential, and it has improved by EUR 20 million in the H1, and you have this impact on this line.
Okay. Do you have a view for the full year?
I'd say we don't expect the same number in the full year as in H1. We could expect a little bit below what we had in H1.
Okay. Thank you. The last one on French offices. I understand that there is a vacancy effect on your negative like-for-like growth, but also, can you give us more detail on the negative reversion that you achieved in H1?
I think there is very few impact in terms of rents. The most important is linked to the occupancy, because the occupancy, especially in Paris La Défense in CB21, decreased on our asset, and that's the main effect on the like-for-like. Also the fact that we have renegotiate last year. It was in the lease, but it has an impact on the full year, on this year. The main lease with SUEZ that was decreased in last September, so we have a full effect on this first half. As we say today on the main relating, we have all renewals that was made that was more close to the passing rent. As of today, we don't see an impact on the level of the rent in this like-for-like.
It's really mainly due to, except for the SUEZ situation, for evolution of the vacancy compared to where we was one year ago.
Okay. Thank you very much.
There are no further phone questions.
Okay. If there are no more questions, thanks, everybody, and see you soon. Bye-bye.