Good morning. This is a conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the AXA Q1 2025 Activity Indicator conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. The host will be Mr. Alban de Mailly and Ms. Anu Venkataraman. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Anu Venkataraman. Please go ahead, madam.
Good morning, and thank you for joining AXA's first q uarter conference call. Our Group CFO, Alban De Mailly, will go through the highlights of the quarter, after which we'll open up the call to your questions. Alban?
Thank you, Anu, and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining the call today. Let me start with the key highlights of this first quarter. As you saw in the press release, we achieved a strong performance in those first three months. We delivered robust growth across all lines of business: P&C, life and savings, and health. Our total revenues increased by 7% to EUR 37 billion, with a healthy balance between volume and pricing. That reflects a disciplined execution of our organic growth strategy and the continuation of the positive momentum that we saw last year. Our balance sheet is robust, with a Solvency II ratio at 213% that reflects strong organic capital generation. Our diversified business model, focused on technical margins and our proven asset allocation, are key strengths in the current volatile environment, and that makes us confident for the execution of our plan.
Let me now go through the key numbers of the quarter, and I'll start with P&C. P&C revenues overall are up 7%, with growth both in commercial lines and in personal lines. In commercial lines, and I exclude AXA XL for the time being, commercial lines are up 6%, and pricing trends remain positive across all markets. AXA XL insurance revenues were up 9%, reflecting both higher volumes and price increases, notably in casualty and in property. While reported growth in the quarter was impacted by a large contract with limited risk retention, underlying growth of mid-single digit remains at healthy levels. Pricing has held well, + 2% on renewals, which is broadly stable compared to full year 2024, and it's + 3% if you exclude financial lines.
As we've said before, we see different pricing dynamics depending on the lines of business, and we are managing, therefore, the cycle proactively. In property, pricing, including exposures, remains ahead of loss trends. In casualty, pricing is up 7% in line with loss trends, and the market remained very disciplined on both sides of the ocean, the U.S. and Europe. In financial lines, like last year, pricing remained soft. Overall, we have grown selectively. We grew where the pricing was favorable, and we also focused on retention, and we did benefit from strong retention in the first quarter. Excluding AXA XL, we continue to see favorable pricing at + 4% and volume growth, notably in France and in Belgium. Moving to personal lines, revenues were up 7%, with growth both in motor and non-motor of 7% and 8%, respectively.
You know that we did a turnaround of the U.K. and Germany last year. Now all engines are working well on the personal lines, which allows us to grow our business, but we also continue to benefit from a very supportive pricing environment in our various jurisdictions. Therefore, net new contracts were positive in France and in Europe, and that includes Germany and the U.K. We are growing volumes in motor by 3%, in particular in France, 3%, in Germany, also 3%. We benefit from a good positioning, a competitive offering, because many of our peers are still catching up on pricing. In the U.K., we are growing the portfolio on a selective basis in a context where prices are moderating, obviously following the strong repricing that you saw on the market last year. Last, on reinsurance, revenues were up 12%.
That's driven largely by business that we write but cede to insurance-linked securities. Pricing continues to be favorable, and that comes, as you know, on top of strong price increases last year. One last word in P&C, it's on NatCat. As you know, group NatCat experience in the first quarter was below our prorated annual budget. The main event was the California wildfires, which are EUR 0.1 billion, as we told you at the end of February. Now, that's only one quarter, so we maintain our NatCat budget for the year of 4.5 points of combined ratio. I now move to life and health. In life and health, premiums were up 8% to EUR 15.5 billion, with two dynamics. As you know, we like having two areas of focus: short-term and long-term business.
In the short-term business, we delivered strong performance, protection, and health, with revenues up 8%, in particular from favorable price effects in health across geographies. You know that for the first year, we are now also recapturing layer premiums in Ireland, and that was EUR 0.4 billion for the quarter. In case you had the question, there is a bit of seasonality, so you shouldn't multiply that by four. Q1 is generally stronger than the other quarters, but it was EUR 0.4 billion in Ireland in this quarter. We have the long-term business, for which we've seen a good sales dynamic, and that is very much in line with our renewed ambition on the life side. Unit-linked sales were up 16%, with contributions from all our key markets, but notably France.
GA savings were up 10%, in particular in Italy, where sales were up 54%, as well as France, + 6%. As we told you last year, in Japan, we are selling a single premium product, and we have elevated sales of that product, but that will not last the whole year, and that will probably moderate in the remainder of the year. Last, protection was up 5%, and that's mainly from the continued success of protection with unit-linked products that we sell in Japan, but we saw also good growth in Switzerland and in Hong Kong. Together with the decrease in surrenders, primarily in unit-linked and general account savings in France and in Italy, we saw strong net flows of EUR 2.5 billion in Q1 2025. That's a EUR 1.8 billion improvement versus the first quarter of 2024.
We expect that improving trend in net flows to fuel growth in CSM and therefore in earnings over time. A word on new business. Life and health, PVP was up 5%, and that reflects the unit-linked sales in France and Europe that I mentioned, but also the general account savings in Italy, but also health in Germany. NBV was down 1%, primarily due to an unfavorable change in mix and change in assumptions in France and Japan that we did last year in 2024. Those changes partially offset the higher volumes. As a result, NBV margin is down 0.3 points, but remains at a very good level of 4.9%. Our last line of business, that's asset management for a few more months. The average assets under management increased by 4%, reflecting the favorable market effects that we had last year.
Net flows were EUR -4 billion, and that's driven by a low fee mandate for which we expected termination in this quarter. Revenues were up 8%. That's driven by the higher management fees that are due themselves to the increase in average assets under management. The sale of AXA IM is progressing well, and we expect to close the transaction early July. The last word on the balance sheet with Solvency II. We continue to operate at a high Solvency II ratio at 213% at the end of March, down 3 points versus full year 2024. Those 3 points are made of + 7 points from normalized capital generation, - 6 points of accrued foreseeable dividends and annual share buybacks, - 2 points from unfavorable impacts from financial markets. That's two things: a widening of government spreads in Europe and a widening of government spreads in Japan.
We have also lost 1 point from a regulatory model change. How are we positioned in the current macroeconomic environment, which is uncertain, to say the least? We have a diversified business model focused on technical risks, and that obviously reduces our exposure to financial markets. We have a strong balance sheet with the 213% Solvency II ratio that I just mentioned. That is supported by the 25-30 points normalized capital generation that we have on an annual basis. We have lowered our sensitivity to market volatility over the past years. You know that we have transformed our life business as we shifted from capital-intensive traditional GA product with high guarantees to capital-light GA savings and unit-linked. We closed our duration gap, and that has led to a significant reduction in our interest rate sensitivities.
Our sensitivity to lifted equity is also fairly limited because it would be 2 points of solvency, minus 2 points, if stock markets were to go down by 25%. We have a disciplined asset allocation with low exposure to the most vulnerable sectors, such as auto, travel, leisure, luxury. In the medium term, we have a positive view. We are constructive on the outlook for Europe, which is our main market. That is mainly due to the expansionary fiscal policies that will be implemented in Germany and that will obviously support growth in Europe, and also the fact that there will be greater spending by governments and notably on defense. To conclude, we are off to a good start this year, consistently with our plan. We are continuing the momentum of last year with organic growth, well-balanced across lines of business and between pricing and volumes.
We have an attractive and highly diversified business model built to deliver predictable earnings growth. Our balance sheet is strong and resilient, which is a key asset these days. We remain focused on the execution of our plan, and we are very confident in achieving our targets. I'm now happy to take your questions.
Thank you, sir. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. The first question comes from David Barma of Bank of America.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, I wanted to ask about the price trends at AXA XL, both on the primary and reinsurance sides.
I'm quite impressed by the +3% you're mentioning outline in commercial pricing at financial lines and the +1% in reinsurance when market commentary for both has been much more negative, especially on North American property risk. Can you unpack that a bit for us, please, and explain whether mixed effects have a big impact in the quarter, please? Secondly, staying on reinsurance, the volume growth was very strong. Can you explain the increase in the transfer to ILS in this period, why this is happening now, and if there's any color you can share on the sort of margin on that business? Lastly, on personal lines, the volumes have recovered in Europe, remained down year on year. Can you give a bit of color on the trends by geography, where you're growing and where you're shrinking volumes? Thank you.
Thank you, David, for your three questions. Pricing trend at AXA XL. As I said in my introductory speech, you see different dynamics. I know that some players in the U.S. have said that property prices were down. That is not what we see. We see stable pricing in property in the U.S., which together with the exposure effect is sufficient to maintain our margin, i.e., sufficient to compensate for loss trend. When you look at casualty overall, prices are up 7%. That is more in the U.S. and a bit less in Europe. In both cases, we see a very disciplined market, very disciplined, I insist on this, which allows us to grow in both sides of the ocean and with good margins.
Where we obviously see still some deteriorating prices is in financial lines, but there we are reducing our volumes in Q1, as we said we would, given all this. The other message I want to give you on AXA XL is also that we are focusing on retention, which is the best way to grow, which is not to lose our good customers. We have a good level of retention of 90% in the first quarter. This, plus the discipline in our various lines of business, except financial lines, allows us to grow. On reinsurance, we do not want to grow aggressively or at all our business in reinsurance.
That being said, if we can grow our business in order to transfer part of the risks to alternative capital and insurance-linked securities or side cars, that's something that we want to develop because that's the way for us to accompany our customers and not take more risks and generate fees on that business. That's what we want to deploy, but clearly on a net basis, reinsurance is not something that we want to grow. Finally, on personal lines, we have good growth in meaning positive net-new contracts in most, if not all, of our jurisdictions. France, Germany, the U.K., Switzerland, Italy. You may have seen that we announced that in the U.K., starting a few days ago, we have now an exclusive agreement with Lloyds Bank that will distribute our motor products. We see a good dynamic in all those countries.
As we said in February, we believe that the environment is very supportive for personal lines, and that will be for us a way to expand our margins in P&C. You know that our plan is to increase our margins by 2 points. We did 1.1 points in 2024. The other 0.9 points will come mainly from personal lines and from commercial lines, AXA XL. In personal lines, we see both positive net-new contracts and, as you saw, good pricing in all our jurisdictions. It's moderating in the U.K., that's for sure. We also see good pricing in non-motor personal lines.
Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Huttner of Berenberg.
Thank you very much. Great results. Three questions. The EUR 2.5 billion net inflows, you said that would lift CSM growth and lift profit growth.
I wonder if you can give us a feel for how much it could lift them. The 4.5% budget for NatCat, I suppose I'll cheat. I'll ask two questions here. When you say lower, was it much lower? Was it a little bit lower in Q1? Also, in your 7% addition to Solvency from operating capital generation, did you put in the 4.5% or the actual number? My last question is, if we add layer in health, what would be in the growth? Thank you.
Thank you, Michael. The EUR 2.5 billion net inflows, I mean, you see, the way to look at it is you see our CSM and you see our total amount of reserves. The rule of thumb is to say how much is CSM compared to reserves, and that gives you roughly the margin that you get.
There's no reason why those EUR 2.5 billion net inflows would have a different CSM than the rest of the business. I think that's important to keep in mind. We have new business CSM. We also have retention. Retention, as you know, progressively materializes in operating experience, and that's why it grows the CSM. On the NatCat, I would say, first, as you would know, our NatCat loads, the 4.5%, and that's different from some of our competitors, includes absolutely everything, and notably weather events. It's not only NatCat. It's all events. I would say at AXA XL, given the California wildfires, experience was in line with budget. In the other jurisdictions, it was quite a benign quarter. Again, that's only the first quarter. Impact on Solvency, we do estimate in Q1 and Q3, and we do a true-up in half- year.
That's where we'll see whether effectively, if we have a good second quarter in NatCat, that further materializes in our solvency capital generation. Last on layer, I mean, when you look at the health, when in our appendices, and you look at the health reported numbers on health, I think we would be at 17% including the layer premiums. That's adjusted when we do like-for-like. So 17% including layer.
Super. Thank you very, very much.
The next question is from Andrew Baker of Goldman Sachs.
Great. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, just following up on the AXA XL retention of 90% that you mentioned in Q1. Can you just help us put that in sort of historical context? What would that 90% look like over the past couple of years?
Then secondly, how are you thinking about the direct and indirect impacts of the U.S. tariffs? Can you just remind me your EPS sensitivity to U.S. dollar weakening as well? Thank you.
I'm just writing down your questions, not to forget any. The retention of 90%, you certainly have in mind that when we bought AXA XL, we did a lot of repricing and re-underwriting. Probably four years ago, it was in the low 80s. Now that the business is completely re-underwritten, repriced and has been so for the last two years, we can be at 90%. That's the difference. On tariffs, you have the direct and indirect impacts. What we see as direct impacts, that would be in the U.S., and that would affect mostly the, I mean, motor insurance. We hardly do motor insurance at AXA XL.
It's only 2% of our premiums. We don't expect to be affected by tariffs at AXA XL in the US. Now you have the indirect effects, and those are the impacts on financial markets, of which we had a glimpse a few weeks ago. Our scenario is, in such a case, that it would have an impact on GDP growth and therefore an impact on long-term interest rates. As you saw, our sensitivity to interest rates is low in general. If anything, it has reduced since full year 2024. The impact of low interest rates on our earnings would be through the discount, but we believe we have ways to manage that. When it comes to the U.S. dollar impact, the rule of thumb is 10% change is 2%-3% impact on our EPS.
But bear in mind that the average US dollar rate last year was 1.08. So that's what you need to compare to when you do your sensitivities.
Very clear. Thank you so much.
The next question is from Hanif Farooq of JP Morgan.
Hi. Thank you very much. I just want to clarify again on pricing at AXA XL. Can you tell us what the pricing that you're seeing generally ex financial lines is, sorry, in property is at AXA XL? You gave a number for casualty. You seem to be implying that you've grown your exposure to casualty versus property. Is that correct? What are the relative margins between sort of the casualty business and the property business that you're seeing? That's question area number one.
Secondly, just looking at the health business, you seem to be suggesting there that there's been positive pricing trends as well as volume. How is this sort of comparing to your kind of expectations for margin improvement in health? Thank you very much.
Thank you for your questions. Pricing at AXA XL, on property in the U.S., prices are stable as such. It is 0%, to put it very clearly. You have what we call the exposure effect, which is for a given line of business, if you reduce your exposure but you keep the same price, that is equivalent to an increase in price. Net-net, we see loss trend for property probably in line with general inflation. When you combine the price, which is stable, and the exposure effect, you are in line with loss trend.
You do not see an increase or a decrease in margin in property in the U.S. We have grown our volumes in property as we have grown them also in casualty for the reasons I said. In a number of casualty lines in the U.S., we see price increases like last year at 10% or above. That is what I meant when I said that the market was very disciplined. On the health side, we see significant price increases, which allows us to be confident in the fact that, I mean, you know that on the health side, we wanted to improve our margin by 3 points over the planned period. We did 1.4 points in 2024, and we should see a further improvement in line with our plan over 2025 and hopefully 2026.
Just to return maybe, if I quickly can, on the AXA XL points that you made. Presumably, you have increased your exposure to casualty versus property on average. What are the relative margins? I know the pricing is very strong, but is it a weak combined ratio business?
We have grown both businesses, and I'm not sure that Q1 is representative for the whole year. I think what you should keep in mind is that at AXA XL this year, as we said in February, we want to maintain our margins overall while keeping investing on our developments in mid-market in the NS. That's the main message that we want to give for AXA XL. Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Will Hardcastle of UBS.
Oh, hi there. Thanks for taking the question. Just one from me left.
In personal lines, and you've touched on it a little bit, but just a bit more color. If you can give the current strategy on pricing and volume in some of those major markets like France, Germany, and the U.K., I guess how much volume did you actually achieve in these markets in the first quarter if you're willing to give that? Thank you.
We grew, as I said, in personal lines in our European markets. When I look, for instance, at motor in France, we had a growth of 9%, and that's a mix of 3% in terms of volume and 6% in terms of prices. When I look at Europe, it's closer to 1% in volume and the rest in pricing. When I look at international markets, that's 2% in volume and 8% in pricing.
The next question is from William Hawkins of KBW.
Good morning, Alban.
Thank you. Sticking with personal lines, can you help me interpret the change in the nominal rate increase that you've published? The headline figure is 6%, which is much lower than 10% last year. Can you talk a bit more about what's happening to loss-cost inflation against that? If I were assuming that maybe loss-cost inflation was a stable 5%, then the real rate increase that affects the claims ratio would have gone from 5 points to 1 point. Obviously, inflation will have been changing quite a lot. With that background, can you just help me understand what's happened to your real rate increases that affect the claims ratio against that 10-6 change in nominal rates, please? Secondly, can you talk a bit about Switzerland? What's happening there?
That's an area where you've seen an acceleration of nominal rate increases, quite a big one in personal lines relative to the history, but also in commercial lines as well. Could you just give us a bit of a narrative of what's happening in Switzerland, please? Lastly, sorry, just to clarify, I'm still a bit confused. If it's been a light NatCat quarter, why your cap gen impact on the solvency is only in line with the budget? I would have thought either there's an offsetting negative or something else. Did you answer to Michael Huttner that you've effectively just booked the budget even though you're telling us the caps are light? Or is there some offset against the light caps that brings your cap gen back down to normal? Thank you.
Thank you, William.
To make a long story short on personal line pricing, I'm much happier with what's happening in Q1 this year than last year. Effectively, last year, you could say that price increases overall were 10%, but in fact, it was driven by the two turnarounds that we needed to execute in Germany and in the U.K. I mean, price increases in the U.K. were 30%-35%. Now it's much more distributed in Q1 2025 and on businesses that all have profitable personal line businesses. When I look at the price increases in the first quarter, that allows us in all countries to grow our margins. Because, and that's your question on the real rate increase, we see in Q1 2025, let's call it loss trends as if it was AXA XL, better loss trends in Q1 2025 than we did in Q1 2024.
That is also due to the fact that general inflation is more muted. Our ability to grow margins, as we said we would when we talked at the end of February, is materializing. We have good price increases overall and higher than our loss trends. In Switzerland that you mentioned, it is true that prices increased by 6% simply because in Switzerland, we have seen a small increase in frequency and that we needed to compensate. As a reminder, the current year combined ratio undiscounted that we have in Switzerland for motor is 90%. We have a very healthy business in Switzerland, but we just needed to adapt on this. On the commercial side of Switzerland, same, we want to make sure that we are keeping up with the trends.
Workers' compensation has a higher loss trend in Switzerland that we needed to reflect in our pricing, and that's what we did. On NatCat and Solvency, there's no offset, nothing that compensates the Q1. To put it more clearly, more bluntly, when we do the true-up in half year, if we have a Q2 in NatCat which resembles Q1, you should see better capital generation.
Excellent. Thank you.
The next question is from Fahad Changazi of Kepler Cheuvreux.
Oh, hello. Thank you for taking my question. Just two brief ones. On the health business, actually, could you just expand in terms of your you've done 1.4% and you're looking to do 3%, and it was going to be driven by pricing, claims initiatives, and the U.K. recovery.
Could you just sort of update us where you are in each of these three aspects as you attain your target? Sorry, just one quick question on Solvency too. Is the SCR development Q1 in line with the previous guidance of 3% growth, which is incorporating the 25%-30% capital generation target? Thank you very much.
On health, in the U.K., by definition, the turnaround that we did last year gave its full effect at the end of the year. We are still earning in Q1 2025 what was put in place over the year in 2024. Yes, there is an improvement to be seen in our margins in the U.K. this year.
On pricing and claims management, just to make sure because I did not completely hear your question, the 3 point improvement that we want to have in health, that comes from the U.K., but that also comes from the rest of our business, to be clear. We do see some good prices, as you saw, across our entities on health. We are continuing with our efforts to improve claims management through pathways. That is why I said that we are confident in our ability to grow our margins on the health side in line with our plan. On your question on SCR, yes, it is in line with our growth, in line with what you saw last year.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Andrew Crean of Autonomous.
Good morning, all. Can I delve a little bit more into the NatCats?
I mean, the California wildfires are 0.5%, and your budget is 4.5%. I mean, just how much better than average are you? I know [storm] and Germania were quite big in the U.K. and Ireland for intact. Second question, a bit of detail. Can you give us a sense of the U.K. motor pricing through the quarter? I mean, when you say moderating, I assume that's a tactful way of saying prices were being cut. But my understanding is that pricing in U.K. motor actually stabilized as you went through the quarter. Is that your experience? Thirdly, a slightly odd question. 2024 operating profits from your U.S. subsidiaries, can you give us what they were? It'll be presumably part of the AXA XL profits, but I'd be interested to know what that figure was.
Sorry, Andrew. As your third question, I was still writing down your second.
Can you repeat your third? I'm sorry.
Third one is in full year 2024, what were the operating profits from your U.S. subsidiaries? Okay. Maybe a question to take later.
In NatCat, the main impact was clearly the California wildfire. It's true that you also had you in the U.K. and Ireland. I would say Ireland, you know that our business there is mostly motor and health. It had an impact, but it was not significant. In the U.K., the storm hit Ireland more than the U.K. We have an impact in both. After that, when you look at the rest of Europe, that was pretty benign, really. It was a good quarter in NatCat. On U.K. motor pricing, you're exactly right.
It was slightly down at the beginning of the quarter, but what you see in March and April is prices that are now stabilizing in motor. We do not disclose the operating profits at AXA XL by geographies. I would just say that roughly 50% of our business at AXA XL comes from the U.S. and that the U.S. is slightly more profitable than the rest of the AXA XL geographies.
Okay. Thanks.
The next question is from Rhea Shah of Deutsche Bank.
Hi. Thank you. Just three quick questions for me. The first one is, Alban, I think you mentioned that the AXA XL underlying growth rate, if you exclude the impact of a large contract, was mid-single digits in the first quarter. Is that how you expect the growth to be over the rest of the year? Second question on asset management.
Is there any more you expect in terms of these large redemptions ahead of July? Then the third question, in terms of Solvency, could you quantify the impact of the widening Japanese spreads to the solvency ratio move in the first quarter?
Okay. Look, what we see in terms of pricing at AXA XL, we do not see at this stage a reason for a change in the sense that inflation is stable and reinsurance prices are stable. On casualty, you do not see a significant increase in loss trends with more nuclear verdicts. As we know, some of those assumptions and also some of those items can change very quickly in the current environment with any significant political or macroeconomic decision. At this stage, we believe that what we have seen in the first quarter should carry on for the rest of the year.
That can change if suddenly tariffs are put in place in the U.S., inflation goes up, general inflation, because then everybody will need to adapt, notably on the property side. That is as far as we are concerned. That is not what we see for the time being. On asset management, we do not have in mind other redemptions that are planned. It is not that we do not care, but the price at which we sell AXA IM is fixed and not dependent on the volumes of assets under management at the time of closing. On Solvency, what came from Japan, it was slightly above half a point, between half a point and a point.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Dominic O'Mahony of BNP Paribas.
Hello. Alban, you have given very comprehensive answers to all the questions, so I have only got a couple of detailed ones.
One is just on layer recaptures. You were clear that the EUR 0.4 billion for the quarter is we shouldn't multiply that by four. I had in mind about EUR 800 million for a full year. Is that right, or have I got that wrong? Just another detailed point on the ILS sessions. You've been clear that you are not looking to grow reinsurance. Should I infer that essentially all of that 12% growth is then ILS, or is it a subset? The third point, a broader point, you mentioned very helpfully the listed equity sensitivity is only 2 points for a 25% drawdown, which is clearly much lower than the published sensitivity. I just thought I'd ask you to maybe explain a bit how the valuation of the unlisted equities would respond to a drawdown in the region of 25%.
I mean, is there a mechanical feed-through so that you would essentially mark to market in a similar way for the unlisted, or would you expect it to be more muted because of the way you value them? Thank you.
Thank you, Dominic. So, at this stage, I think EUR 800 million would be slightly conservative for the whole year. We'll see at the end of the year, but that's more than that that we expect from the business. On AXA XL Re, if you exclude the business ceded to ILS, growth is closer to 1% or 2%. The bulk of the additional business, to put it that way, was ceded to ILS.
On your third question, I gave it on purpose, the 2% on listed equities, because to some extent, what we publish is a bit fallacious because you do not see the same real drawdown on private equity and even more on infra equity as you would see on listed equities. There is no correlation as such. I mean, the three buckets are valued separately. Obviously, the listed equity is just looking at markets. On private equity, it really comes from the GPs we work with, and we take a prudent stance in the approach. Infra equity is not very sensitive to the listed equity market. We gave the 25% impact overall so that you have a view. I do not think it makes sense to think that the private equity and infra equity would react as listed equities would.
Very helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Huttner of Berenberg.
It was just one. The 9% growth at AXA XL, which includes what I take as captive, what would be the kind of more underlying number, I guess?
Including the captive would be closer to, as I said, mid-single digit. That's the growth we had at AXA XL.
Super. Thanks so much.
Mr. de Mailly Nesle, there are no more questions registered at this time, sir.
Thank you all for your questions then.
I'll just remind you that we have our next roundtable session scheduled for September 15th. We look forward to seeing you all there. If you have follow-up questions on the first quarter, please do not hesitate to reach out. Thank you and have a good day.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephone.