Forvia SE (EPA:FRVIA)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

Apr 18, 2024

Operator

Good morning. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining today's Forvia First Quarter 2024 Sales Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and 1 at any time. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Olivier Durand, Group Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q1 Business Review Call of Forvia. I am today with our investor relations team, Marc Maillet and Sébastien Leroy. We will cover today the key events of Q1 for our company, and in particular, our revenue results for Q1, our progress in the delivery of our Power25 strategic plan, for which the central objective, as you know, is the deleveraging of the company and the confirmation of our guidance 2024 and ambition 2025. On the achievements, the key achievements of Q1 2024. On the revenue side, we have achieved an outperformance of 390 basis points in Q1 in sales. We have recorded solid order intake at EUR 6.5 billion, up EUR 1 billion compared to the last period of 2023.

We have achieved already 25% of our second EUR 1 billion disposal program, and we have issued EUR 1.2 billion of new debts, replacing existing one in order to extend our debt maturity. We have been able not only to do a large bond with maturity at 2029 and 2031, but also to come back to the Schuldschein market. Before going to the commercial activity, I would like to highlight elements on key projects that we have. The first one is, of course, EU- FORWARD, which has been launched in February. This is a five-year project aiming at restoring full competitiveness in Europe throughout our portfolio. I would like to highlight that the project is in good motion.

We are executing properly side by side, and we are confirming all the objectives associated to it: EUR 500 million of savings by 2028, with savings already in 2024, and also restructuring costs that are increasing slightly compared to our run rates, but the excess compared to the average is only EUR 275 million over 2024 to 2028. I confirm that this is all embarked in all our objectives and are helping to achieve them, and not the opposite. We don't do these actions lightly, but we consider this is necessary in order to make sure that Europe is fully competitive throughout the portfolio. Last message: we have indeed some overcapacities, but they are specific locations and specific activities, and we are addressing them in a selective manner. The second topic is about the development of our reach in China.

A key element is the signature of a joint venture with Chery in the field of smart and sustainable cockpits, with a goal to develop EUR 1 billion of revenues by 2029, and you will see already impact of this even this year and more in 2025. The interest of this joint venture is twofold. Chery is one of the winners of this market, and it allows us to have diversification in our reach. Second, this is about working on a full cabin scope, i.e., leveraging the integrating factors that we can provide at Forvia. The second one is that we continue our journey on developing a sustainability offer, and in particular, in the context of sustainable materials. You know that we created this company called MATERI'ACT. We are now, in fact, in implementation mode with partnership in different geographies.

You see, for North America, the signature of a joint venture with a company in Texas called PCR Recycling, which is aiming at being one of the winners of this industry in that country. So it's the company will be called MATERI'ACT Dallas. And we have signed, recently, last week, an agreement with Gree, which is a EUR 27 billion company in China to develop also new materials and applications in that country. Now, moving on to more the commercial sides and the commercial performance. So first of all, we have reached robust order intake of EUR 6.5 billion, which is interesting in different aspects. You see that in terms of typology of activity, we continue to grow, in fact, the electronics business. EUR 2.3 billion is on this side out of the EUR 6.5 billion.

And you see that Asia has represented the majority of the order intake in the first quarter, with a balance between Chinese OEM and international OEM throughout this large geography. And last but not least, we have been able to inside this number to get a large order with a premium German OEM for complete seats, more than EUR 1 billion. We continue to exercise selectivity in the order intake, ensuring that the profitability and the level of upfront is in line with our Power25 objectives. Now, moving on to the market itself. The market is showing clearly a confirmation of stabilization overall, and it's true both in Q1, in which you see the automotive production has been down slightly, minus 0.8%, and a confirmation of a market at least of 90 million cars, for the year.

Inside this one, there is clearly slowdown of the electrification, but slowdown electrification in Europe. The penetration is continuing to grow. In fact, if you take the European market, the overall market is -8%, but inside this, the electric cars have been stable, so the penetration of electric cars continues to grow, but not at the same pace as before. And you see that overall for the year, we continue to see a growth of electrification from 10% in 2022, 12% in 2023, and expected, according to the latest report of S&P, at 15%, driven largely by China. Important to note for us, since we have bets on both sides, we have developed a large electric offering, thanks in particular to the acquisition of HELLA, and vice versa with the Clean Mobility activity.

The fact that there is a slowdown of some parts of the market in terms of electrification is enlarging the benefits of the Clean Mobility activity. In this context, we are posting a 3.1% increase on an organic basis, and therefore, a 3,390 basis points outperformance versus the market. In terms of scope, we have a marginal impact with two elements in opposite directions. We have a negative, of course, from the disposal of commercial vehicles that we did last year effect, beginning of Q4, so we have the quarter that is out. And vice versa, we have revisited the partnership with one of our partners in Lighting in China, which allowed us now to fully consolidate this company, whereas it was on an equity basis before, and it shows the enlargement of our ambition in China.

Last but not least, we have a sizable currency effect, which is, on the Chinese yuan, but also the consequence of hyperinflation in Argentina and Turkey, which has been particularly the case, in the recent period. And therefore, in particular in H1, you have a negative effect on the forex, meaning that on a reported basis, we are slightly down year-on-year. If I move business by business, so starting by Seating.

Seating, which represents 30% of our revenues, has an organic growth of 1%, i.e., an outperformance of 180 basis points, and actually a 3% organic growth if you would exclude the exits that we signed last year on the Just-in-Time activity in Highland Park, as you know, which was our difficult contract in that place that we exit at the end of September, so you will see this effect for the first three quarters. Inside this one, double-digit increase in North America driven by Ford. We have a marginal single-digit decrease in China, in which you have the drop of sales on BYD that I will come back to, and vice versa. We have the ramp-up with new Chinese customers, the development of the diversification, as we knew that there was a certain dependency on BYD, already last year.

On Interiors, we have an outperformance of 560 basis points, i.e., organic growth of 4.8%. This is driven by the development of the activity in China and the development in Europe, with Renault and JLR. So it's a solid growth in this area. One positive surprise, potentially, is the Clean Mobility activity. The slowdown of electrification means that, in fact, the addressable market of exhaust systems is declining less than what people would expect. And as we grow market share and we have also the positive fact that a hybrid system is more complex and more expensive than the pure ICE model, we have, in fact, an increase of our activity on an organic basis of 6.8%, and as you know, is one of our best margins, if not the best margin we have currently.

So you see the growth by geography. Let me remind that this activity is the most balanced between the three big markets, i.e., in fact, we are able to benefit from various and sustained variations. On Electronics, we have an outperformance of 390 basis points. This is largely driven by the growth of Clarion Electronics, while, in fact, HELLA Electronics is penalized by the slowdown in the electrification, which is in Europe, in which there is a large presence. Last, Lighting and Life cycle Solutions. So Lighting, we have an outperformance of 210 basis points, but I would like to mention that we have a large scope effect, which is the consolidation of this HBBL joint venture in China. This company was, in fact, on an equity basis. The partner has not changed.

We have revisited the agreement with them in order to maximize the development, and we are now fully consolidating, which means that we are going, in fact, with Chinese OEM, in Lighting, as part of our common go-to-market, thanks to the Forvia combination. On Life cycle, the Lifec ycle continue to have a good pace. You know that this is our B2C activity, in which the pass-through of inflation is a positive factor, and with the solid profitability associated. So this is a good block to have as part of our portfolio. Now, if I move from a regional standpoint, the overall outperformance is centered around North America and Europe.

You see, Americas 12% increase, and this is, in fact, with stronger performance in North America, which is particularly notable because you have also the voluntary exit of Highland Park that is a negative there for EUR 40 million in sales. You have good growth in EMEA and, in particular, 440 basis points in Europe, and we say Europe excluding Russia because, of course, as you know, we have vacated any activity in that country. On Asia, we have actually a contrasted performance. We have, on the one side, an underperformance in China. We have grown the market, but less, including this joint venture, but we have an underperformance. This was expected given the unfavorable customer mix, the high comparable, and the fact that BYD has revisited the market sharing in Seating.

I would like to highlight, in particular, on China that last year we had something like a 14% outperformance in Q1. You see that mix between customers, variation of performance between customers can have impact, and I will I will I will come back to this. Vice versa, we are developing largely the rest of the region. We have stronger performance in Japan. We have development with Honda. We have inroads in India, which is probably one of the most interesting markets from a growth standpoint outside China for the future. So this is allowing, in fact, to have an overall per an overall situation for Asia with actually an outperformance of 20 basis points. Let me move in more details about Asia indeed. So you see on the first, on the left, the evolution of our revenues in China.

So we continue to grow in the country. We are, in fact, dealing with the high comparable of last year. You see clearly the evolution of the bar between 2022 and 2023. And as we explained, we have been working on the diversification in order to reduce our dependency on BYD and benefit from the growth of the other actors. Last message, we have also clearly the fact that BYD has slowed down in terms of growth. BYD has increased production only by 8% in Q1, only between brackets compared to their recent performance. This evolution versus market should normalize in H2 to return to, in fact, a more balanced with the market in that period. Outside China, we are accelerating the growth, and you see the evolution. The potential is quite large given our initial positioning.

I would like to highlight that we are benefiting from the acquisition of Clarion some years back, which allowed to have real presence in Japan with the Japanese OEM, and that we have been able to extend this reach with Japanese OEM outside Nissan, which was the historical customer, to Honda, Suzuki, and I would like to say Maruti Suzuki, in fact, which is one of the key players in India. On the other side, we had also some good base. So we are able to grow this part of the cake, which was a limitation historically for our company. On the right-hand side, we highlight, in fact, the key elements fueling the growth for the future.

I mentioned the joint venture HBBL, which last year did EUR 250 million of sales, so you can expect growth from this one. The joint venture recently signed with Chery on the integrated cockpit offer, with a goal of EUR 1 billion sales by 2029, and the sizable and diverse order intake, EUR 11 billion last year, EUR 3.6 billion in Q1. So we have the elements to grow in a diversified fashion in this market as Asia. Now, moving to the second key elements, which is traction on our Power25 objective, which is the deleveraging and the reduction of our financial costs. And on these two messages to pass, the first one, we have achieved already 25% of our goal on the second asset disposal, with EUR 250 million euro closed.

We received the money from the sale of the 50% stake of the BHTC in early April, and we signed an agreement to sell Hug Engineering to a Belgian company called Ogepar. This is another sign of a cleanup of the portfolio on the ICE footprint. This is also an exhaust system, not for car or vehicles, but more for plants and boats, and it's a continuation of what we did with the CVE disposal to Cummins last year. So 25% achieved, and we have traction on the other five. The goal is clearly to deliver this one in over 2024-2025. On the second front, on the maturities and our debt management, we have done quite a bit in the first three months of the year with two big operations.

First of all, Eurobonds of EUR 1 billion with two tranches, one for 2029 and one for 2031, EUR 500 million at 4.90%-4.96%, and EUR 500 million at 5.37%, which is, and the second one is a return to the Schuldschein market, with EUR 200 million, for maturities of three, five, and seven years. This is leading, in fact, to capacity to reduce all the maturities that are in front of us 2024-2025 and continue to attack the 2026 as well. You see on a pro forma basis the evolution of maturities further to this operation. Our goal is, of course, to work on the maturities, to work on it with good conditions, and also to reduce the gross debt, and you will see reduction of the gross debt, again in H1 results. In this context, I confirm the guidance for 2024.

In terms of revenues, EUR 27.5 billion-EUR 28.5 billion. The outperformance that we've reached in Q1 is in the EUR 300 million-EUR 500 million range that we are aiming and that we have shown since the creation of Forvia. So we continue on this trend. Improvement on the operating margin with a range of 5.6%-6.4% of the revenues. Net cash flow at least at the level of EUR 223 million, which was EUR 649 million, and as a consequence, a further reduction of our leverage. We were at 2.1x at the end of last year. We aim to be below 1.9x at the end of this year. And that should put us in the right track to deliver on our strategic plan, Power25, which is revenues around EUR 30 billion, operating margin above 7%, net cash flow 4%, and a leverage below 1.5x.

This excludes, in fact, the impact of the second disposal program. So you understand that our goal is to be clearly better than this 1.5 times, throughout the different operation that we have done and that we are doing. On this note, I'm ready for questions with my colleagues.

Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Michael Jacks of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Michael Jacks
Senior Director, Bank of America

Hi. Good morning, Olivier. Thank you for the presentation. I'll start out with pricing. What was the contribution in Q1 from inflation compensation, and then perhaps link to that? Some suppliers have reflected that compensation for wage inflation in 2023 was received mainly through lump sum payments, which means that 2024 negotiations need to cover more than just current year inflation. Is this also the case with Forvia, and how confident are you that this can be achieved? And then one final question. I know you mentioned Ford, but could you please provide a little bit more color on the strong outperformance in North America? Was this driven by any specific program, or is it more a rebound in production by Ford in general? Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. So on the inflation, the inflation recovery and contribution in Q1 is something like 60-70 basis points, inside this 390 basis points about performance. On the recurrent, non-recurrent aspect and the difficulty to recover inflation, this is clearly a topic for all the suppliers. So let's be very clear. We are organized to make sure that we are recovering the inflation. It's not easy. It's a daily discussion case by case, but this is clearly a focus area, and we are starting all our business reviews with our different business group by the inflation recovery. On the recurrent, non-recurrent, you have in fact the two situations. You have some lump sum agreement.

You have some recurrent agreement, and you also have cancellation of what existed before, which were LTAs. LTAs means annual price reductions. So you have a combination of the three, which we understand that, of course, the two parties have different views on this. The reality we have to get it. Two other messages maybe to pass on this. Number one, EU-FORWARD is about reducing our cost base. So you understand that reducing our cost base is also to recover the impact of the inflation on our side. The last message is that in terms of salary inflation, this has been so far lower than last year. Let's see what happens in 2025, but the level of salary inflation we are facing has started to moderate.

On NAO overperformance, it's quite a lot related to start of production of new programs more than strictly market goals.

Michael Jacks
Senior Director, Bank of America

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from José Asumendi, J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

José Asumendi
Managing Director, J.P. Morgan

Good morning, Olivier and Marc. It's José from J.P. Morgan. Three topics, please. The first one, can you elaborate a little bit more? Where are the excess pockets of capacity in which region and, and roughly which, which products, so we can understand a bit better the, the plans to, to adjust capacity? Second, are you confident on offsetting the labor cost increases with productivity gains in 2024, or do you think this is gonna be, you know, a topic that you will be tackling more in the second half of the year? Or, you know, the question is more, are you making progress in the first half to offset those labor cost increases specifically?

Then three, if you can, please comment on how you want to improve the outperformance to grow our production specifically in Seating and also in China, what path to improve the outperformance into the second half of the year. Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Good morning. Good morning, Jos é . So on the overcapacity, Now on the , so really , I would like to stress the message that they are in specific location and specific type of activities. So, you have, it's related also to the nature of the business. So we have some overcapacities in some part of Interiors, because those are bigger, those are big machines and also quite a bit dedicated to a specific model or group of models. So, if there is adjustment in the level, this has an impact. So that's why we are addressing the specific cases and the specific countries, so it's not exactly the same everywhere. The other overcapacity we have is obvious, which is the Clean Mobility exhaust system. The fact that the electrification is slowing down in Europe does not slow us down on our side.

So we are executing the restructuring action, and since the size of the individual Clean Mobility exhaust systems sites are limited, this is actually easier to do, and we have already initiated some in Q1. So Clean Mobility, obvious. The rate and pace of the electrification can vary, but the driver of the adjustment is related to the number of engines and the number of engines has happened. So if anything, it is helping us to convert in cash this activity. So we will do a thorough update on EU-FORWARD in the publication of H1 showing the actions in terms of sites and giving you more elements and more details on the specific overcapacity. But once again, this is not a general situation.

And on the labor part, a lot is relating, first of all, to ensure that we do not increase headcount and cost. So we have across the company and across the whole company, we have recruitment freeze in Europe, and this is why I'm saying that the plan is reaching already savings in H1 because you don't need a restructuring measure is, in fact, avoiding cost. On the inflation recovery, you will see a seasonality between H1, similar to last year. I would like not to have it, but this is a reality of the commercial negotiation. We will have more recovery in H2 than in H1, and it will participate to a seasonality of our operating margin between H1 that probably will have a similarity to what you have seen last year in Forvia.

Clearly, we are taking the measures to limit that, but today, this is what I see, and vice versa. We don't want to do a deal that will be nice on H1 but then bad mid-term. On the last question, just to be sure, José, you want some color on the outperformance in Seating in China? That's correct?

José Asumendi
Managing Director, J.P. Morgan

Yes. It looks like those are the two pockets for Forvia. We can accelerate an improvement in the second half of the year or between Q2 and the end of the year. So it will be great, yeah, to get a bit more color if possible. Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

So maybe let me start with China. The China activity is more diverse than it has been in the recent past. BYD, a bit less activity, as a consequence of evolution of market share on the seats. That was known and agreed with them. The impact is probably a bit more than what we expected before given the evolution of production of BYD for the beginning of the year. That reinforced the benefits and the logic of what we have done, which is to develop with the other ones. We have doubled with Li Auto, and we continue to grow. By the way, Li Auto is one of the customers inside the HBBL Lighting joint venture.

We have this joint venture agreement with Chery, which I think is the first time that we have an agreement on a combined Cockpit of the Future strategy with a given customer, highlighting a different approach that the newcomers are taking in particular in this part of the world. The speed of China being what it is, there will be already some impact in revenues this year, which is quite interesting. H1, we will have in fact a situation in Q2 probably similar than in Q1, and you will have a rebalance versus market in H2. The expectation on the China market as a whole are fairly steady. I think the export is playing quite a bit inside. Of course, our goal is not only to work with the Chinese OEM in China but to work outside China.

You know that we have Thailand with BYD. You know that BYD is having a fairly clear and advocated plan in Hungary, in Brazil, in Mexico. And we know also that other Chinese OEMs are considering also sites in Europe. I know at least two with whom we are negotiating. So, the development of the China OEM offer is not only about China. It's actually not only about Asia. It's also in Europe, which is interesting in terms of reusing our people and capacity. On, so a possible improvement on this one, which is a bit of a factor of the evolution of the market, however. On Seating, yes, you see, for instance, the order intake that we got in Seating. We are making sure that this is with good condition financially.

For me, the outperformance and the growth in Seating is by far not the only one that I'm focusing on. What is important is that we are continuing to develop the electronics activity, and that we continue to progress on the improvement of the operation performance in Seating and in Interiors. On outperformance growth, yes, but we have to ensure that we are delivering the bottom line, and we know that in Seating and probably even more in Interiors, we still have work to do.

José Asumendi
Managing Director, J.P. Morgan

Thank you so much.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

The next question is from Sanjay Bhagwani Citi. Please go ahead.

Sanjay Bhagwani
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hello. Thank you very much for taking my question also. I have two questions as well. My first one is on organic growth outperformance. I understand that you mentioned there's roughly 530 basis points organic growth outperformance from volume mix and pricing. Of it, 60-70 is pricing. So it so, just the volume mix, somewhere around 460 basis points, which I think is very, very strong despite, despite a challenging Q1 last year. So can you maybe provide some color on how this develops into the next few quarters? That is outperformance on volume mix. And then how should we think of the pricing overall in the outperformance?

Could this be more towards zero given big inflation will be positive contributor but then the commodities be negative? That is my first question. And my second question is rather on confirmation of the guidance. So, I understand you do not.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Yes, yes.

Sanjay Bhagwani
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hello?

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Yes, yes, yes. I'm sorry, but the line is pretty bad. Can you repeat your first question? I could not hear it.

Sanjay Bhagwani
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Okay. Sorry. I'll, I'll just repeat my first question. Yeah. So, so my first question was that, a Q1 organic growth outperformance, of volume price mixed somewhere around 530 basis points, and, pricing is somewhere around 60-70 basis points. So just the outperformance from volume and mixed is somewhere around 450-460 basis points. So I wanted to know, if you could provide some color on how this progresses, to the coming quarters, given that, we understand that the Q1 last year was very high comp. And on that, how should we think of the pricing in the next few quarters? Could this be net-net zero, given the wages go up and then other parts of the commodities come down because of the indexation? So that is my first question. Sorry. Could you hear me?

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Yeah. Sure. I hope I get it right. I think your question was about outperformance of revenues in coming quarters and in particular, in relation to commodity price evolution. And there was also a question about the conversion of this in operating margin. On the revenues overall, we have achieved in quite all the last quarters an outperformance between 3 and 500 basis points. We expect this to continue with potentially variety between geographies as you have seen in Q1. But the overall running trend is there. And the slowdown of electrification that we see is slowing down some of the growth on part of the HELLA portfolio as you have seen, and vice versa.

There is a large offset of this through the Clean Mobility activity. On commodities, we are seeing some variations on commodities, up and down actually. You see in particular the oil price. You see that the Brent has come up quite a bit in the recent period. Now, it's also I have seen. I don't know today, but yeah, yesterday was going down, and of course it's related to the geopolitics of the Middle East. The impact for us is with a lag, because of the type of agreement we have on the supplier and on the customer side. But today, we are expecting net-net, in fact, not much impact overall commodities because you have some others that are going down, and let's see about semiconductors.

On the profitability, the evolution, maybe two things to mention. The first one is that the evolution year-over-year is driven a bit by the outperformance because we are on a stable market. You have, after the contribution from the exit of this toxic Just-in-Time contract that we had in Highland Park, which is providing a positive evolution. You have the synergies, and the synergies impact for this year is around EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million, year-over-year. You have the add-on benefit of the implementation of EU-FORWARD, which should bring between EUR 30 million and EUR 50 million in operating margins throughout the year.

That's the mix between H1 and H2, on inflation plus on the timing of some of those savings will mean that you will have a seasonal effect on the level of profitability. You have seen that last year, and I think you will see something of the same magnitude this year. So H1 profitability will be lower than H2 profitability as we had last year. I hope I covered your first question, and I understand you had a second question.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Christoph Laskawi at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Christoph Laskawi
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions as well. The first one will be on SOPs, which are slightly below expectations. You mentioned that for Seating. Do you experience that in other divisions as well? And what's the visibility on that improving going forward? Do you think it's more like supply chain related that it's slower right now, or is it demand-driven? As a first question. Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Good morning. I think the SOP delay is not so much on the supply chain. So there were events in Q1, and we have seen what happened in the Red Sea, the Red Sea Straits. But in fact, the supply chain is more resilient than before as a whole. And a case like this one, flows are diverted quite quickly. In the case of the Red Sea, going through the Africa continent between coast to coast 10 days. So there was a little bit of impact, but it's quite marginal. We have not been the cause of any impact for information, but overall, not much. So there was Baltimore, but Baltimore has been not much as well.

So I think the level of difficulties, stop-and-go, shortage of semiconductors, it's not zero, but it's, I think, more normal and fair level. So I don't think this is the cause. The cause of the delays is, I think, more demands and variation of choice of some of the car makers. I anticipate that this will continue to have some impact. On electrification strictly, you see the slowdown in particular in Europe and a bit in North America. In Europe, it has been largely driven by the changes on subsidies in some countries, starting with Germany. So it had an immediate effect. Probably some of this will continue for a while, but the electrification penetration continue to grow.

A question is how the car makers will face the evolution of the CAFE regulation threshold. You know that the threshold is changing next year with a sharp drop on the road towards the full ban by mid-2030s, in 2035. And some of the car makers have been clearly saying that, in the current level of electrification of their sales, they will have to pay sizable penalties. So, either they pay penalties or they will adjust the pricing and the commercial strategy in order to increase the volume of electric cars being sold in Europe, plus fight the competition of the Chinese. So my take is that the slowdown of electrification is a temporary thing, at least for 2025, and let's see about the rest of the year in 2024.

What is important for us is do we have bets on the different situation? You know that the vast majority of our portfolio is agnostic to car trends, but we have activities related to electrification, in particular in some part of electronics plus Lighting and vice versa. We have Clean Mobility on the non-EV side of things. And the offset is probably a bit negative on revenues, but on profitability, given the profitability of Clean Mobility and the actions we do in restructuring, it's probably a neutral effect or close to neutral at the bottom line. I think that this is what is important for us given the volatility in the rate and pace of electrification.

Christoph Laskawi
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Thank you. Second question just on the disposal program and what's still open to the next EUR 1 billion. Should we think about that to be covered with several smaller transactions, or should there be one bigger one making up for most of the junk that's left? Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

So you see that we have done 25% in six months. I think it's a rate that is not so bad in the context overall for this. You can expect a variety of operations. We expect a sizable one, and we expect some other ones to complement. So it's a bit of a combination. As we mentioned, the impact on the consolidation on the consolidated numbers is expected to be marginal, given that some of the operations are more capital opening than strictly selling. The goal in all of this is, of course, to do operations to reduce our debt, which is the central goal, but is also simplifying the portfolio and to do it at good condition.

The 25% that we have just done is leading to a capital gain of more than EUR 100 million. So we continue, in fact, to sell assets for a profit. And I think it's, we are making sure that we remain overall in this, in this situation. So it takes a bit of time on some of it, but the prospects are there. We just need to solidify this and to have, let's say, the curve up and all the financial aspect being organized so that the transactions can be executed.

Christoph Laskawi
Director of Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Sian Keegan with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Sian Keegan
Equity Research Associate, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Good morning. And thank you for taking my questions. My first question was in relation to the Seating conquest you cited. I was just wondering how much of that EUR 2 billion is related to that contract, and can you give us any indication on the timing of the SOP? And then also, what was the principal differentiator that enabled you to win that contract in your view? And should this help you win further contracts in this area? And then secondly, just quickly following up on the SOP delays, are you able to quantify the impact at all? Thank you.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

On your first question, you are talking about the major award that we mentioned in Seating, correct?

Sian Keegan
Equity Research Associate, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Correct.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

So this one is with a large premium German OEM, more than EUR 1 billion complete seat. So the usual conversion in SOP for this is in the two-year range. And the duration of the model is five to seven years. So you know, I think it can give the idea of the revenue aspect. Maybe one thing to mention on our order intake position, we try to take always the edge on the level of the order intake compared to customer expectation as we know that not all cars will be at the same level of success. Otherwise, the market is much more than 80 million.

So we take a cautiousness on contingency on the level of order intake we are mentioning, just to put this in perspective. Can you repeat your second question? Sorry.

Sian Keegan
Equity Research Associate, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Sure. And just quickly on the SOP delays that you've kind of spoken to before, are you able to quantify the impact at all?

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

I think the classification for Q1 only, it's in the EUR 100 million-EUR 150 million range. So it's something like something like this.

Sian Keegan
Equity Research Associate, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Mr. Durand, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

Olivier Durand
Group CFO, Forvia

Thank you. Thank you for this call this morning. You see that we continue to have our performance in the market. We continue to have it in a diverse fashion. We are developing the Asia activity in a diversified portfolio of customers, and moderating the dependency on BYD. And not only in China, but also in the rest of Asia, which is 22 million vehicles on which our market share is, of course, lower. So the potential for expansion with Japanese OEM, with the Indian market is there, and we are geared to seize some of it. But at the end, the focus of the company is on deleveraging, and that's why it's very important that we have traction on our disposal program, and our financial cost and maturities in our debt.

We confirm that we are in the direction to achieve our guidance 2024 and getting the strategic plan for 2025 executed in all its metrics. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.

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