Gecina (EPA:GFC)
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May 4, 2026, 11:25 AM CET
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Earnings Call: Q3 2025

Oct 15, 2025

Operator

Hello and welcome to Gecina Business at September 30, 2025. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the Q&A session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing #5 on their telephone keypad. Today we have Beñat Ortega, CEO, and Nicolas Dutreuil, Deputy CEO in charge of finance, as our presenters. I will now hand you over to your host, Beñat Ortega, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call this morning to review our activity for the first three quarters of 2025. Some key highlights we'd like to emphasize. Regarding office leasing, even during this complex French political context, we secured 114,000 sq m yesterday, already more than a third of last year's total. Leasing activity spans on all our geographies, generating EUR 60 million in annual rents. Regarding residential leasing, nearly 1,300 leases have been signed yesterday, confirming the relevance of our portfolio transformation toward serviced apartments to deliver efficient, collaborative, and modern clients. This clearly meets the growing demand from students, young professionals, families, and corporates. We are proud to continue to capture strong rental outflows and outperform indexation, plus 9% across the office portfolio, including plus 28% in the extended CBD, and an impressive 14% on Parisian residential portfolios.

Over the first nine months, we recorded a plus 4% increase in rental income on a current basis. This growth was driven by a solid 3.7% like-for-like performance and supported by the positive contributions from our 2024 and 2025 deliveries like Mondo, 35 Capucines, and Icône. The performance is still very strong in Parisian portfolio, 78% of our portfolio across all drivers: rental outflows, occupancy gains, and elsewhere. We are very proactive and innovative to retain tenants, define the right products, and implement specific leasing initiatives. A few other key highlights for the quarter. First, we tactically strengthened our financial structure with the successful issuance of a EUR 500 million 10-year green bond at very attractive conditions in late July. We achieved a record low 85 basis points for a 10-year bond thanks to our -A rating and excellent timing of execution.

Along with the early redemption of nearly EUR 530 million of 2027 and 2028 maturities, we now benefit from longer debt maturity, greater visibility, and lower costs secured over the long term. Second, we finalized the framework agreement with ENGIE that was presented in July. Fundamentally, we will support our tenants' transition while actively monitoring the period to secure today's rental income until June 2027, the nominal end of the lease, and minimize vacancy during the repositioning so that T1 Tower should be available for leasing after renovation during H1 2028, only some months after ENGIE lease expiry. Lastly, we are proud to have maintained our five-star rating and now rank first in our P group in the GRESB index, confirming our position as a European leader in future-proof real estate. And as you can see, we continue to execute our strategy with proactivity, discipline, and consistency.

We can confirm our guidance with a net recurring income expected between EUR 6.65-6.70 per share. And thank you for your attention, and we are very happy to answer your question now.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Valérie Jacob from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Valerie Jacob
Managing Director of Real Estate Equity Research, Bernstein

Hello, good morning, and thank you for the presentation. I just had a question on your occupancy outside of Paris. I just wanted to understand what you expect going forward. Do you think it's going to continue to improve, or shall we expect more departures? That's my question. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you, Valérie, for your question. Like we were quite open on that front, we have seen a series of departures, especially in Boulogne, basically 20 years after delivery of those assets. We have already released probably two-thirds of what was vacated in the last two years, and we are still on leasing on that. So obviously, we can't comment on leases before signing them, but we are clearly on it. And elsewhere, like I said, a big chunk will be T1 Tower, but that will be more for 2027-2028. So it should fluctuate, but medium term, we are quite confident to cope with the situation.

Valerie Jacob
Managing Director of Real Estate Equity Research, Bernstein

Okay, but so you're relating the currently vacant space, but you're not expecting any more meaningful departures within the next two years?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

No, those are the biggest ones. Obviously, we have a wide portfolio, so we can have departures, but I think those two are the most critical ones.

Valerie Jacob
Managing Director of Real Estate Equity Research, Bernstein

Okay, thank you. And I've just got a second question on the Engie Tower in La Défense. In terms of the rent that you will be targeting, how is it compared to the current rent that Engie is paying? Because I think it's quite high.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah, obviously, we are still defining, in fact, both the product and the target. We will have a negative downlift compared to the existing lease. Space rent for prime towers in La Défense is pretty sticky. So obviously, Engie is paying a high rent after years of indexation, but we don't see a huge drop, but obviously a double-digit decrease. Yes.

Valerie Jacob
Managing Director of Real Estate Equity Research, Bernstein

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Equity Research Analyst for Real Estate, ODDO BHF

Hi, Beñat. I need to ask some . I would have two questions. The first question, so we have seen on your leasing activity that it has been quite, you have been quite active in leasing for the first nine months of the year. At the same time, so today in France, we have some political instability, if we can say like that. So could you maybe tell us a word on how it could impact today your interactions with your tenants, and maybe I will ask after that my second question.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah, listen, obviously, like I said, the context is complex to read. It might delay a bit decision-making processes on the corporate side, but as you saw, in fact, we have been capable to sign a lot of leases during those nine months. I think if you think on the client side, real estate decisions are long-term decisions. They commit for six, nine, 10 years most of the time, and at the same time, they have corporate strategies regarding return to the office, optimization sometimes of their footprint, changing their organization, AI, digital, and so on, so I think they are still delivering their strategy and their real estate strategy in line with their global strategy, so at some point, it might delay sometimes, but in the end, they commit on those new services, so yes, it's more complex, it would be easier to have a more stable situation.

But so far, having prime, efficient, centrally located buildings has played a role to sustain our activity.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Equity Research Analyst for Real Estate, ODDO BHF

Okay. And maybe my second question would be on the investment side. So in that context, how do you see the activity on the investment side and what is your appetite? And maybe as a consequence of that, how do you anticipate the evolution of the valuation of assets in Paris for offices?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

On the valuation, it's too early to say. I think we have the first ride by valuers in some weeks from now, so I will not opine on future valuation. What we see on the market is clearly a strong appetite for prime Parisian assets. You saw Blackstone confirming the acquisition on Kléber, and we have seen a series of buildings well located and quite well priced, so the market is progressively regaining liquidity, but it's not as fluid as five years ago, and in that context, obviously, we as an operator in that market, we try to be agile, so we're taking profits out of that situation.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Equity Research Analyst for Real Estate, ODDO BHF

Okay. Thanks for that. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Amal Aboulkhouatem from Degroof Petercam. Please go ahead.

Amal Aboulkhouatem
Senior Real Estate/ESG Sell-Side Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Perhaps just to follow up on the last question on the letting market. So I understand the activity remains, let's say, decent given the current context in France. But do you see more discussion on the level of rent or the level of incentives that you have to give to sustain the level of activity?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you for your question. No, we don't see a major shift in negotiation, both on what you saw on our uplift numbers for the first three quarters, but also what we see on the market. Obviously, there is a premium for prime and efficient and centrally located buildings. On those, even on the competition, we have seen record high transactions in Paris CBD and in the rest of Paris. Large head office, like you saw Luxottica moving its head office from the eastern Paris region to downtown Paris. We have seen J.P. Morgan. A series of these pretty high and low incentives. Obviously, on the rest of the portfolio, when vacancy is pretty high, economical rents are still facing challenges. I would say the trend is a bit the same, while a lower activity.

Amal Aboulkhouatem
Senior Real Estate/ESG Sell-Side Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay, so I can understand that the situation is even more difficult outside of CBD and centrally located areas.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

I would say it's quite variable from a location to another. Typically, what we saw in La Défense was pretty active leasing in La Défense and Boulogne. So the market is pretty fluid there, even if rents are not increasing, but there is a take-up and strong demand, maybe a bit better than like two or three years ago. uncertain ] just took a big portion of lease in La Défense. So the market is quite fragmented, I think. Some locations are still facing high difficulties, and some others, when they are well located on top of transportation, are still performing okay. I think this is where looking at the averages might not be the most efficient way to understand the situation. I think it's quite variable from a location to another. So overall, the market is clearly decelerating, but in some locations, it's accelerating.

Amal Aboulkhouatem
Senior Real Estate/ESG Sell-Side Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay. Okay. Okay. If I may just have a second question.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Some locations or some assets. Yeah.

Amal Aboulkhouatem
Senior Real Estate/ESG Sell-Side Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay. Thank you for that. On the Engie deal that you had, just to make sure I understand correctly, so now, contractually, they are committed to pay the rent until June 2027, but they could vacate the building a bit earlier to allow you to start the renovation and modernization work a bit earlier. How would that impact the level of, let's say, rent and cash you are expecting? Would that be half a year you could sacrifice to get an early delivery of the project? Or how do you see it happening?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Obviously, it's a confidential agreement, so I will just give the principles of them. We have, through that deal, secured the rent until the end of the current lease. So there is no rental income change on our side through that transaction. They will vacate the building earlier, so we'll be able to start the renovation work earlier. It depends on when their employees are leaving definitively the building. So that's why we have been saying that it will depend when the last employees are leaving the tower. And on the ENGIE side, obviously, having the tower under work will save a significant amount of service charges because the assets will not be under operations. And that's what has been the driver on their side to make that deal. So on our side, we secure the rent and we anticipate work.

On their side, they do savings on operations from the day their employees are leaving and the end of the lease. That's basically the principles of the deal.

Amal Aboulkhouatem
Senior Real Estate/ESG Sell-Side Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay. Okay. Thank you very much for this explanation.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Stéphanie Dossmann from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Stéphanie Dossmann
European Real Estate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. Just to clarify on the T1 Tower, if I'm correct, there are some leavers of 20% of the space. So I was wondering about the reposition work you will do on the tower. Are you able to speed the work? How does it work, I mean, in fact? And what is currently your discussions with the companies occupying the 20% of the space? Will they stay? Will they leave? How does it work, please?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

So I will not comment on the conversation we have currently on the subject, but the principle is, in fact, Engie is leasing two buildings, T1, that we have talked a lot, and Building B, but they don't occupy the Building B. It's a sub-leasing. So the deal we made was on T1, which is where Engie employees are, and they will leave, and we will restructure. On the Building B, which is an independent building next to T1, we are obviously discussing with the existing sub-leasing to see if they want to stay or not on an old building or a portion of it. So that's what we are more actively engaging with the sub-leasing.

Stéphanie Dossmann
European Real Estate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Thank you. My second question would be relating, yeah, can you hear me?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah, sure.

Stéphanie Dossmann
European Real Estate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. My second question would be related to the rent level, I would say, on the market. So currently, how do you see the market evolving in the CBD? We have seen market data showing increasing vacancy in the CBD. So how do you see the market level, I would say, for the rent evolving going forward? Do you see it topical or not? And maybe on Boulogne, what would be the reversion on your portfolio currently?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

On rent levels in the CBD, I've been, since I came at Gecina, quite positively surprised quarter after quarter on the rent, and obviously, typically, the acquisition we made on Solstys, now named Signature, we have not bet on a future increase of ERVs on that zone, but what we see on the ground is that for the prime, most efficient, better located buildings, rents have either increased during these first three quarters of 2025, so the last deal by JP Morgan and Datadog on two prime assets has been north of 1,200, so probably 1,250, 1,300, so that's for the best assets. There is still scarcity, and there is still increase in ERVs.

And on the rest, I think we have seen, and we have been looking at the averages. We have more than 50% of the leases that have been signed during 2025, which are north of EUR 1,000 per sq m. So the whole market, on top of super prime, the average of CBD has increased also in terms of market trends during 2025. There is an increase in vacancy of the CBD, but still decent take-up. So we will monitor the situation during the next months. But it doesn't look to be somehow as negative as what I have seen when reading your summary report.

Stéphanie Dossmann
European Real Estate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you. And on Boulogne, please?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

And in Boulogne, like I said, a good portion of the buildings have been vacated in the last two years. And we have re-leased, let's say, two-thirds at current market conditions. So I would say, one, there is no specific reversionary potential or downlift because most of the leases are pretty recent. And on the rest, then we need to lease them. And they will be let at market conditions. So no specific disclosure on reversion in Boulogne, basically, because most of the current leases are at current market conditions.

Stéphanie Dossmann
European Real Estate Equity Analyst, Jefferies

All right. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Thierry Chérel from Natixis CIB. Please go ahead.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Hello. Do you hear me?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yes.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my question. I wonder if you think about diversifying your portfolio exposure out of the office and maybe out also of the residential? Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Not specifically. I think if you think about the reason, I think we need to be fully expert of what we do. I think all the conversation we had shows that you need to have a high professionalism, understanding perfectly the market where we are. And that's what we try to do on our two businesses. And second, I think we saw on the Solstys acquisition or development pipeline, we still have room, strategic room to grow and improve our company in the two asset classes where we are and the locations where we are. So for the time being, no specific willingness to do something that will less master than what we do today.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

My second question is, do you intend to increase your development pipeline going forward?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Not specifically. As you saw, we already launched four big projects on top of T1 Tower that will come, so I think we are pretty loaded there. On the existing portfolio, we don't see major effort to come in the next two or three years on top of what we have launched, and then it would depend on our investment activity, so we are always monitoring the market to buy assets on which we can create value and create alpha, but specifically on the current portfolio, not much.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Have you bid on Trocadéro assets?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

No. Like you saw, it was a Blackstone buying it.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Yeah. Okay. Thank you. And maybe last point. Looking at the negative net absorption on the Paris office, even inner Paris office market, I wonder when the bottom will be reached. What's your perspective about that?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah. I think we are pretty close to the lowest level of take-up historically on the whole Paris region, by the way. I think probably we are at the bottom of that leasing market. We are interacting a lot with leasing agents. So yes, I think we are close to the bottom. But as I said, it very depends on location. The market is fluid in a series of locations and more quiet on some of them. So if you elaborate a bit on the understanding of the market, what has decreased a lot in the global take-up of the Paris region is large transactions on the outskirts. And probably we'll have maybe 50 transactions above 5,000 sq m on the whole market, very concentrated on Paris and La Défense. And probably that's a low point.

So it should increase again following the return to the office announcement by the large corporates. And the fact that we will have lease expires from 2015, 2017, 2018 that has been quite active leasing years in the past, and will probably lead to some more moves from those large corporates on the outskirts. But yes, I think we are pretty close to the low point.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Okay, and I could conclude that it's also your point of view about the optimization of office footprints from large corporates.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah. We are following one data, which is when you divide the take-up, how many companies are increasing footprints, are flat in footprints, or declining footprints. Two or three years ago, a majority of tenants were decreasing footprints when signing a new lease. Now we have companies declining footprints. It's probably 15%-20% still, and that's sometimes because they have less employees. Most of them are flat, and 30% are increasing footprints, so if there is one inflection point in the market, it's the fact that we are the decreasing phase more behind us than in front of us.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Very interesting.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Based on the recent data from Walker.

Thierry Chérel
Director, European Real Estate Analyst, Natixis CIB

Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

You're welcome.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Sacha Kownator
ED, Goldman Sachs

Good morning. Just one more question on a new supplier, please. Can you help us understand if there's still some new supply coming through and whether there's a new supplier that is competing with your product in the CBD, or you don't think that that supply is actually competing? And how do you think that's going to be absorbed? And when do you see new supply tailing off? Thanks.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you, Jonathan. On new supply, I think we, like I commented previously, we have, let's say, two main leasing strategies on the CBD. One, which is for small surfaces being at the highest point of the quality by giving operated offices. So fully furnished, fully equipped, fully serviced offices. And on that, performances are excellent because you don't see so much qualitative offer facing our offer. So the average small surface quality in the CBD is pretty poor. So that's why we are reaching pretty high level of uplift and quick relocation and re-leasing. On the large surfaces, most of the portfolios have been secured over the last two or three years, like the Mondo, the Icône, but we have done also renewals recently. So our next challenge is Signature, so Solstys acquisition. And on that, we don't see much competition with large floorplates, serviced, and efficient buildings.

So not so much competition neither on that front. So most of the competition is small buildings, let's say average quality. That will be left, obviously, but not perfectly competing with what we have. At least that's a bit our intention and our play on that one.

Jonathan Sacha Kownator
ED, Goldman Sachs

So, okay. So if I understand correctly, the new supply in Paris is mostly in small buildings. That's what you're saying is mostly ERV of small buildings. Is that what I understand?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Yeah. Not 25,000-30,000 sq m buildings that we have with Signature. Yeah.

Jonathan Sacha Kownator
ED, Goldman Sachs

Okay.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

You can assign some, but take-up is pretty wide in Paris and Paris CBD. But yes, we don't see so many buildings in capacity competing with Signature.

Jonathan Sacha Kownator
ED, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Signature being the new name of Solstys after refurb.

Operator

The next question comes from Mary Pollock from CreditSights. Please go ahead.

Mary Pollock
Senior Analyst of European Real Estate, CreditSights

Good morning. I have, I guess, a somewhat technical question on valuations. How will the move in French government bond yields impact valuations? How should we think about that filtering through for year-end?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

It's both technical and psychological. I think the French bond is now ranging between 3.3%-3.5%, which is pretty in line with our current bond level. So here, clearly, through Gecina, you can see a decorrelation between prime real estate and the French sovereign bond. So that's why I was talking about psychology. And the question is around risk premium on top of French sovereign bonds or 10-year swaps. So that will be a technical discussion with the operators. How do we factor in the fact that we have a gap between sovereign bonds and 10-year swaps? So that will be a question for the next quarters regarding the risk premium on which rate.

Mary Pollock
Senior Analyst of European Real Estate, CreditSights

Okay. So that's a decision that will be taken by the valuers?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Obviously.

Mary Pollock
Senior Analyst of European Real Estate, CreditSights

Okay. Thank you very much.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

But valuers, of course, are considering what they are seeing on the market and what Benny and Taylor, the fact that clearly we can contemplate a couple of transactions. So they have data points, at least inside Paris CBD market, where you have a couple of investors, could be local or international investors, which are giving a good hint of where should valuers see cap rates at year-end.

Mary Pollock
Senior Analyst of European Real Estate, CreditSights

Great. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Sheila Jamelani from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Just one question from my end. Just wondering about the relapse status of the new developments, and when can we hear any news on that?

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you for your questions. So far, nothing to announce. Otherwise, we would have included that into the press release. But we are actively working on it. We have active discussions on those buildings, but so far, nothing signed yet.

Okay. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question comes from Céline Quirot from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, Beñat. I just want a clarification on the EUR 140 million CapEx that you're planning on T1. Are you going to treat this as maintenance or investment yielding CapEx? And a sub-question to that, if that's maintenance CapEx, of course, that's going to decrease your cash. And we understand your EPS will be quite flattish next year. So I was wondering if that makes you want to change your dividend policy going forward to base it more on an AFFO basis rather than some of your peers rather than FFO. Thank you.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you for your questions. The decision is not made there, but anyway, it's CapEx, so it's capitalized, so the accounting treatment will be the same. I think on what we are intending to do on T1 is to have, let's say, a tower ready for multi-tenants, so it will be a transformation of the tower so that, in fact, we don't have in the future idea to face those huge vacancies from a day to another, so clearly, we want to improve the tower through services, but also creating different lobbies, having a fully prepared tower for multi-tenants so that it can last longer and have a stickier cash flow than what we have today, so clearly, the tower will be improved significantly, and regarding dividend policy, we have a complete business model where I think our dividend coverage is pretty good now.

We will be capable, in fact, to follow on that track. We have been conservative, not raising our dividends in the last years while cash flow was increasing almost by EUR 100 million. That was in the view also to be capable to sustain it. No specific change in our policy.

Sorry, can I rephrase my first question? To make it simple, T1, are you planning to make any returns on the EUR 140 million CapEx?

Yeah. It depends the way you look at returns. The tower is empty by mid-2027. Can we re-lease as is? Yes, probably. And we look at two options. One, re-leasing as is, probably with a lower ERV, and trying to be more prime, more in line with the market, and re-lease it faster and with a higher rent per square meter compared to if we don't do anything. So if you look at those two options, obviously, there is a return. Otherwise, we will never do it.

Okay. Thank you.

Yeah.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Beñat Ortega
CEO and Directeur Général, Gecina

Thank you all for listening today. Thank you for your questions. Very insightful. And see you soon. Bye-bye.

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