Gecina (EPA:GFC)
France flag France · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
65.95
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Sep 11, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H1 2021

Jul 23, 2021

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Thank you for making yourself available in the room and online on this 23rd of July, just before vacation. I'm very pleased with Nicolas Dutreuil and the team to present to you our HY 2021 earnings. Which represents the quality of our portfolio and the trends we are observing in the market. If we go to the strategic update, what we are seeing in the market is normalizations and recovery through strong polarization in different sectors. Tenants requirements are moving further towards grade A assets in core locations. Tenants assessments criteria is now office matters. Location, while leaving flexibility, digitized and sustainable buildings increasingly are important for tenants. This is based on three major criterias. Accessibility and centrality, being in central and well-connected areas to public transportations, adapted to soft mobility and walkable access.

Flexibility and agility related to agile and digitized building to be capable to collaborate, innovate, built for social interactions, and to enjoy community. Of course, sustainability and well-living. Responsible buildings are facing climate change targets, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to biodiversity and well-living are going to increasingly be important in the market. I'm not going to read the two quotes of Tim Cook of Apple and Costas Markides, the London Business School, which, in any case, are encouraging people and considering that being gathered together in the same place is very important for collaboration and innovation. This will create polarization of the office market as a consequence. What we have seen in the Paris market during this H1 2021 is back to central location. The take-up is up by 24% in Paris city, almost stable in Western Crescent, including La Défense, -9% in Inner Rim.

The total average is +14% for the region. The market rents are holding well, +2.4% in Paris city. Quite stable, slightly positive in Western Crescent, including La Défense, -6% almost in Inner Rim, and the average is +1%. If you look at the investment market, the capital value driven is upward in central locations. You look at the capital values in the Outer Rim, we are almost at -16%, Western Crescent, including La Défense +2.5%, and the Paris CBD +3%. On residential portfolio as well, Paris region at the end of Q1 2021, +3% of the value creation, and over the last five years, it represents 27%. This validates our strategic choices made during these past years.

Increasing centrality, 66%, almost 60% at the end of the semester, 68% by now of our portfolio is in Paris versus 55% by the end of 2014. +5% reversionary potential at the end of June, +14% in Paris CBD, +10% in Paris City, excluding CBD. We are transforming the city. We have contributed to that by delivering 31 projects since end of 2014, + EUR 1.2 billion of net value has been created, either EUR 16 per share. 17 projects are ongoing and nine more to be committed ahead. We push further our CSR leadership, the road to carbon neutrality in 2030, named Canopy 2030, is our actual credo. Residential is back in the game since 2017 and ready to scale up since 2020. Subsidiarization and partnership with Woodeum and Nexity are witnessing this ambition.

We are also implementing YouFirst approach by, I remind you that YouFirst is a brand for client-centric approach. We do that by enhancing quality of client relationship, customer lifetime value, and digitization accelerated to improve services and performance. The map you have in front of you shows what is the consequence of the macro trends and the clusters and the hubs we have created within the Paris region and in Paris itself by the dots of our properties. The value of our office portfolio by mid-year represents EUR 16.1 billion, 66% in Paris, 73% if we include Neuilly and Levallois. Our residential portfolio represents EUR 3.8 billion, EUR 3.4 billion for classical residential and almost EUR 400 million for student housing. The total of our portfolio value is EUR 20 billion, 81% offices, 19% multi-res. Macro trends reinforce our confidence in transformation.

Digitizing our business to provide performance and responsive services has been our recurrent objective during these last years. We have already achieved or are ongoing through YouFirst transformation by putting in place CRM and broker portal on offices. Which gave us flexibility and optimization of the letting process, by improving quality and services, tenant retention, supply differentiations, competitive advantages, pricing power.

We are implementing a specific tenant web app throughout our portfolio, which is going to be enhanced by the end of the year on five of our assets and pushed forward further next year. This will give tenants a real tool for well living and good connection with our teams. We put in place a commercial website for YouFirst Campus, fully digitized process for students to rent their accommodation, and improvement of the operational process on student segment. As a consequence of that, we are leasing quicker, faster, and in better conditions.

Also as another example, we put in place telemetry, which is a way to optimize operating costs and reduce energy consumption. This is an image of the commercial website for YouFirst Campus. Of course, I encourage each of you who has a son or daughter studying to look at this website, and we will be happy to welcome you and welcome them in our portfolio. These macro trends also reinforce our confidence in sustainability. As a reminder, in 2008, when ahead of everybody else, Gecina started to look at our carbon footprint. We were at roughly 28 kg of CO2/ sq m. I just want to make a point here.

Of course, this is not the same portfolio, this is not the same geography, this is not the same base, but this gives the global trends, I am sorry, for the global portfolio. If we consider as year zero, 2011, when we started to look at how we are going to create value on our portfolio, you can consider that in H1 2021, our carbon emission was divided by more than two, and we have created a lot of value in between. Gecina increased the capital return since 2011 by 54%, and this is through the promising pipeline, we can continue to deliver capital return performance ahead. At the same time, we have reduced our carbon footprint by -57%, and this leads us to the carbon neutrality targeted in 2030, Canopy 2030. We also outperformed the market on that sector.

If you look at the numbers of MSCI, since 2011, only 18% of capital return has been created in the market. Whereas the value creation in Gecina has been + 54%, while on carbon emission, according to OID, the market has reduced its carbon emission by 15%, whereas we have reduced by 57%. I consider this chart as a very important one. As a consequence, the portfolio has again proven its strength in this semester, 99% rental collection during this semester, back to the office strong and quick. Almost 80% of employees are back to the office in Paris region. We made EUR 453 million of dispositions, which are actually almost all achieved by now, representing 7.2% premium to appraisal of year-end appraisals. Rental visibility is 4.5 years until next break-ups, 6.5 years until lease end.

83% of our rental bases is related to tenants classified in the two best credit risks categories using Dun & Bradstreet data. Take-up is normalizing. We signed 115,000 sq m during this semester. Twice compared to last year, largely above what we have signed in 2019. The positive reversionary potential is still on average +5%, +14% in Paris CBD, +10% in other Paris city, excluding CBD. As a consequence, the value of our portfolio is increasing, and the EPRA NAV is improving. +1.4% like-for-like for residential, +2.1% like-for-like for Paris CBD offices in six months. The NCA end up at EUR 172.6 a share, EUR 180 if we consider unit-by-unit sale for residential. Current stock price suggests an implicit discount of 20% on our office values, largely disconnected with current market trend on physical market.

We have an accretive pipeline, well located to capture potential from recovering trends. Pre-let ratio is up from 37% by year-end to 58% on the projects which are going to be delivered in 2021 and 2022. More than 90% of non-pre-let buildings so far are located in Paris city or Neuilly-sur-Seine. Residential portfolio, we have already secured more than 1,000 units potentially joining our portfolio. 540 units under development, including 320 units acquired in H1 in Bordeaux, Marseille, and Paris, and transformation of our office into residential buildings. We have also ongoing talks to acquire up to 570 more units in the market. All this information and these news are set to benefit ahead from ongoing recovery. French GDP is expected so far to grow by 6% this year. Indexation is back to normalized level ahead. Take-up normalization is ongoing.

Confidence in long-term interest rates level are still in the market. Therefore, we have an accretive pipeline to R&R and net asset value of EUR 3.7 billion total pipeline. EUR 3 billion are committed or controlled and certain, with circa EUR 120 million- EUR 130 million net additional IFRS annualized rents, which are expected by the end of 2026, with an average 5.1% yield on cost, whilst at 81%, they are located in Paris city or Neuilly-sur-Seine. 17 committed projects to be delivered before end of 2024, including 10 residential programs. Recovering trends on like-for-like rental growth are likely ahead. Take-up recovery in core locations to get vacancy back to normal. This is something we already observe, and it's getting stronger. Reversionary potential, still positive. We already mentioned the numbers.

As of today, 68% of our office portfolio is located in Paris City, numerous instances on the market have reported leasing transactions signed above EUR 900 a square meter in the CBD, indexation is back on track after weakening during the course of the COVID crisis last year. We have a strong balance sheet, favorable market conditions, long maturity of the debt, a hedging policy to support sustainable low cost of the debt ahead. Cautious leverage, LTV 2021 is expected so far at 32.3%, all tax included, offering potential capacity for opportunistic approach on the investment market. If we look at the transaction and operational performance, recovering trends are building real confidence in central location. Progressive normalization of rental market in post-COVID crisis.

We already observed, by the end of 2020, the recovery in business interaction, 226% more Q4 2020 versus lockdown levels, 16% Q4 2020 versus Q1 2020 pre-COVID. Q1 2021, recovery in visits. Numbers of visits back in line with normal path. Q2, progressive rebound in lettings. The numbers you see, 85,000 sq m pre-let, renewed in Q2, 33,500 sq m of new leasing, four times more compared to Q2 2020, of course, but also above the numbers we observed in 2019. To be continued, we are observing and expecting normalization by 2022. We have already signed 115,000 sq m by the end of June and still negotiations ongoing. I think this chart is very interesting to show the gradual normalization of the business activity.

You see where we were in Q1 2020, how it had slowed down during the time of the first lockdown and the Q2, Q3 actually of 2020. Still very weak in the Q4, since moving up very steadily and going back to normalization. Back to office is quicker and stronger in Paris region compared to London. It seems that London, which was probably the last place in the European zone, I may say, to go back to the office, is now getting to stronger return and back to work. Central locations continue to outperform. Gecina's portfolio dedicated to central areas is circa 58% of our portfolio is in Paris, 75% including the Neuilly, Levallois. Residential 19%, La Défense, other Western Crescent 17%, Inner Rim, Outer Rim, and others represent 5%.

You can see in the right side of the upper side of the chart that where immediate vacancy remains low, which is in Paris CBD, Paris City, Boucle Sud, and Neuilly, Levallois. It's going up much higher, of course, in the suburb. Market supply is constrained in that areas. 81% of Gecina's committed and controlled pipeline is located in Paris City and Neuilly. Centrality outperforms, you can see by the numbers representing the percentage of lease up in prime rents, changes in Paris CBD, Paris City as a whole, rather flat in Neuilly, Levallois, and Boucle Sud, still weak in La Défense, Paris Défense, and Inner Rim.

This chart shows still the potential of reversion that we can expect to capture in our portfolio. Which will support stable ERVs in Paris, where in areas that are under pressure to go up, and of course, in other areas that are under pressure because of the amount of supply, this direction is otherwise. This shows also the quality of our portfolio. 93% of Gecina's portfolio can pretend success to that reversion. I'm not going to comment this chart. This slide, you can see the last main transaction we made, we already reported that in different press release. Portfolio rotation. Investment markets on core locations and core assets continues to perform and strengthen our long-term strategic conviction. Just as a reminder, real estate market is still very attractive in the post-COVID world. Prime yield remain attractive.

You see where Gecina stands and where is the attractive risk premium compared to our valuation. We see on the investment markets, though, further polarization. Growth in Paris, less buyouts in suburbs. Investments are largely above average long term, representing EUR 5.5 billion in H1 were invested in offices. Investment markets in France expected to be + 20% above long-term average in 2021, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate. Market value going up in central areas in the last 12 months, + 3% in Paris, + 4% in Paris Central area, +4 in other, +2 Western Crescent, and - 16 on the opposite in Outer Rim. Foreign investors are back in the game. 42% were invested by non-domestic investors, +5 points compared to end of 2020. Growing inflows still to be invested in properties.

EUR 3.7 billion asset under management has been collected in H1 by SCPI's French open-ended funds and largely above long-term average. I think this chart is interesting to consider. This is the number of transaction we know about, which have been signed in the office sector above EUR 20,000 a square meters. You can see that there were a couple of few since 2014. There were not that much in many years. There were some in 2016, 2018, 2019, in 2020 and 2021, we see more and more transaction above EUR 20,000 a square meters. Which shows that in a post-COVID world, office asset values are moving upward in the most central areas, especially in Paris City. They are offering appealing risk-reward, the standard deviation increasing as investment markets are increasingly selective on qualitative criteria as well.

Gecina's portfolio is now largely fits the investor's preferences, demonstrating Gecina's capital allocation relevancy. Current markets are seeking for grade A assets. More than 91% of our assets and portfolio is trophy core-plus offices and residential. Less than 9% are value-add or opportunistic. They are looking for central location, which is our case by more than 73%, 27% of Gecina's portfolio outside of Paris, Neuilly and Levallois. This slide shows the dynamic and supportive investment market in 2021. If you look at couple of transactions as an example, we put in the chart in the main core cities areas and the price per square meters and compare that to our valuation, our average office portfolio valuation, all assets included, represent EUR 11.4K per square meters, EUR 1,000 per square meter, at appraisal value.

If we report that to our share price, we are less than EUR 10,000 a square meter. If we look at the Paris CBD and 5-6-7, the valuation is below EUR 20,000 a square meter. These are for offices excluding retail. If we report that to our implicit value at current stock price, we are less than EUR 16,000 a square meter. We continue the rotation, as you always said, to dispose assets which are non-strategic or already mature. EUR 453 million of disposition have been achieved in this first half of the year, creating 7.2% premium above last appraisal value. We have invested in EUR 161 million in new investments secured forward sale, three projects on the acquisition on multi-res. We are expecting up to roughly 900 more units to join Gecina's portfolio.

At the same time, as you are converting, especially in the 14th district in Paris, an office building into multi-res. Couple of example, enhancing the quality and centrality of Gecina's portfolio by disposition of non-core assets. Which, by this disposition, we increase the weight of the Paris portfolio, which is more and more non-replicable by 4 points versus H1 2020. Residential portfolio. We are ready to go for better, faster, and stronger. If you look at our roadmap, first of all, by the end of 2016, our resi portfolio was collecting rent, by strengthening resilience. We identified right after, drivers for value creation, densification, extension, optimization, reversionary materialization. In 2018, we started to look at our YouFirst brand, considering external growth and developments, pipeline developments, potential acquisitions, property development, partnerships, digitization.

We, over time, capture scale effects, attracting institutional investor through the subsidiarization will feed Gecina's capacity to grow further. Although we do not need new investors just for deleveraging, but for having the same view in the way we are going to improve and expand this portfolio. At the same time, we are industrializing our process to capture scale effect. On the scaling up, more than 1,000 additional units to potentially join our portfolio, as we are considering external growth and developments, pipeline developments, potential acquisition, property development, partnership, digitization, YouFirst. This is through the partnership we put in place with Nexity, up to 4,000 new units to be created over the next four or five years. Woodeum, up to 1,000. We already acquired the 130 housing units in Bordeaux, 75 in Marseille, 132 in Paris through different acquisitions and not only the partnership.

We have ongoing talks with developers to acquire, all included, up to 900 almost units and seven other residential projects to be committed to the pipeline. These are couple of examples of the buildings we signed, Belvédère in Bordeaux, Art Chic in Marseille, and Wood'Up in Paris. More than EUR 600 million of committed and controlled and certain pipeline are still underway. On student housing, up to 14,000 sq m in different areas. Development from scratch, 34,000 sq m. These are the acquisitions we made. Transformation of office into resi, around 9,000 sq m so far. Harnessing value from our own portfolio, up to 22,500 sq m ongoing. For all these topics, more to come. A proven track record as a consequence with tangible contribution from renewed strategy is ahead of us. Like-for-like valuation is up by 1.4%. Uplift materialized with new leasing, in H1 is +6.6%.

Acquisition of EUR 161 million, 52,500 sq m committed project to be delivered from 2021 to 2024, 28,500 sq m project to be committed over time, and the occupation rate is 96.7%. Pushing our CSR leadership further. Gecina sustainability performance levels are confirmed once again. One of the best performer in its sector by ISS, B-. GRESB 92/ 100. Second place for Listed Offices Real Estate companies in Western Europe. MSCI AAA, +6% from 2019, thanks to corporate governance improvements and strong certification rate for operational buildings. We're top-listed real estate companies ranks. We are among the top 10 listed real estate companies by Sustainalytics. CDP, we are on the A list. Of course, we have integrated CAC 40 ESG, in March this year.

I'm not going to comment in detail this chart, but what we are doing is focusing on our four pillars we have already mentioned many times. We have put in place a couple of years ago on carbon neutrality by 2030 through the program Canopy 2030. By promoting upcycling, recycling for Sucre Building, by developing building and services for the well-being and well-living of our tenants, and by increasing our contribution to biodiversity. You can see achievements and examples through this chart. These are some examples of what we are doing through these charts. One word on Canopy 2030, carbon neutrality on assets and operation by 2030, which is a new ambition launched this year. As a reminder, we took commitment since 2008 to reduce, we started to measure our carbon footprint since 2008.

Now, these commitments are bearing fruits, -53% reduction in CO2 emission since 2008, -26% over the past four years, acceleration, and 80% of our assets are certified. As a consequence, we capitalize on our past performance and our leadership and know-how to accelerate the ongoing trend. We are deploying and industrializing low carbon solution on a wide scale. We are working with an ecosystem of innovative partners. We are increasing the use of renewable energies. Already represent 40% as of today. We continue to reduce energy consumption by carrying out renovation work. We are further strengthening the integration of the environmental and financial performance by continuing to set up responsible loans. We are working in partnership, hand in hand with our tenants to promote sustainable use of buildings.

We consider by all these encouraging results that we can reach our targets of decarbonizing our assets on operation by 2030, 20 years earlier than expected. By the way, we have no choice because all the laws and measures and regulations which are ahead of us, including the European taxonomy, push us to accelerate and to continue to run. This chart is interesting to compare the value creation and the carbon emission reduction compared to market during the last, from 2010 to 2020. If you look at what has been the actions in Gecina compared to OID, Observatoire de l'Immobilier Durable, the market has reduced the carbon footprint by 15% since 2010, when we have reduced by 57% since 2008. Of course, we have started sooner. We cannot compare really apple to apple, but the yers are very close.

If you look at certification, the benchmark of OID mentions that only 11% of the buildings in the market are certified, whereas in our portfolio, 80% are certified. This is also another contribution to our ambitious Canopy 2030 target, which is made possible thanks to Gecina leadership on all these topics for a long while. I will now hand over the mic to Nicolas Dutreuil to talk about green financing.

Nicolas Dutreuil
Deputy CEO in Charge of Finance, Gecina

Thank you, Méka. Good morning, everyone. I am very pleased to start this presentation by talking with CSR. We have been successful in converging all financial issues with our CSR issues, thanks to the work made by the team, our CSR team, of course, but also team of Gecina. I think that what we are achieving now on our balance sheet is the result of what Méka was saying regarding the way we are managing our portfolio with a long-term view. As you know, we started to develop green finance on our balance sheet with our bank facilities. We are now at 65% of sustainable lines. We were at 32% end of last year.

We have made a strong acceleration in developing this type of financing, which are, for us, very important to have a margin, which is moving not only linked to financial criteria, but also to CSR ones. That is also the work we have done with our banks. We do not sign any more facility with a bank, which is not a CSR, a sustainable one. It means that for the banker in the room, if you want to work with us, you have to be sustainable. Second, of course, regarding bonds, you have seen what we have done beginning of this year in term of transformation, transforming all our bonds into green bonds. That is the result also of a conviction, which is that we cannot work on the CSR issue partly. We need to have a global view.

Issuing some bonds green, some of them non-green, according to our view, in term of sustainability, does not make sense. We need to have this global approach first. That is why we have done this transformation for full portfolio, first. Second, we know that what is green today will not be green anymore tomorrow. Méka was talking about the regulation, which is moving faster and faster. It means that we cannot consider that adding in front of a green bond, an asset today, will make it green for the next 15 years.

That's the reason why we have a very innovative approach in terms of green bonds. Which is that we are screening, or re-screening every year our portfolio with criteria. Which are stricter and stricter to make sure that we continue to improve the quality of our portfolio. To make sure that we are delivering to investors, bond investors, which are looking for green bonds assets, which are in line with today's or tomorrow's CSR criteria. Of course, that's the result of a conviction. That's also, we are getting some benefits on that. You've seen that we've been able to issue a bond end of June at the best level that we have never done for Gecina.

It was a 15-year maturity at a 0.875 coupon, which is, for us, very important in terms of securitizing long-term financing at a very low level and giving us visibility for the future. Talking about the future for Gecina, it's also, of course, our development pipeline. You've seen that we have delivered, since 2019, 10 projects. We are continuing to work on this project in terms of leasing. You know that 2020 has been, of course, impacted by the crisis, by the lockdown. The level of leasing has been much lower than it used to be. The teams at the office division, of course, are working hard in order to lease these buildings, and we've made some decent progress in terms of leasing, even on the deliveries we've done last year with Carrefour, with Anthos.

Meaning that we continue to generate additional rents, or we will, because some of these rents will start in 2022. We continue to create value on the buildings that we have delivered during this last year or this last month. Of course, we have more project to come ahead. We have seven projects that will be delivered before end of 2024, which is for us, clearly, one of the fuel of our growth engine, both in terms of NAV, of course, but also in terms of France, and I will come back to that. What's important for us, of course, is to have more and more visibility on the rents we will generate from these buildings. You've seen that here again, we've done very decent improvements on our pre-leasing activity.

We were at 37% six months ago, and we are now at 58%, which is a very high figure. We are also very comfortable on the remaining part, which is not prelet now, because most of these buildings which are not prelet are located in very prime areas like Paris or Neuilly-sur-Seine. Of course, it's a no-brainer for us, and we should be able to let them in the coming months. What's also important is the value we are generating on this project. You know that for office portfolio, for the committed pipeline, we are at a yield on cost of 5.3%, which is compared to the yield today, you can see on the market, and Méka was referring to a couple of transaction. It's a very decent number, meaning that we still have lot of value to extract from this development pipeline.

We've also been very active, thanks to our investment teams on our residential portfolio, having access to a lot of new projects, fueling our Homya subsidiary, which is our fully dedicated residential subsidiary. You know that we have signed partnership with Nexity and with Woodeum, and we have also discussions with other developers in order to secure the operation for the future. That's also a growth engine for tomorrow because the IRR of this resi development is at 6.4%. Part of it coming from new projects that we have secured with developers, but also from work that we are doing on our own portfolio. It could be some land densification. We can increase the size of buildings, but we can also transform some office assets into resi.

The front page of this presentation is the buildings that we have in the 14th arrondissement, Dareau building, which is a transformation of office into resi. All this operation, of course, will contribute to the growth of our resi subsidiary. Globally speaking, what's important, regarding this pipeline, of course, is that it's accretive. We will get some accretion on our NAV. You know that that's a EUR 3 billion pipeline. If you take into consideration the value which has already been booked in this pipeline and NTA, NAV, we are at EUR 3.3 billion, but there is still a lot of value to extract, when you look at what the implied yield of our pipeline and the yields of the market. What's also very important for us is that this pipeline will generate further additional rents in the future.

It's clearly also an accretion for our FFO for the coming year. Part of this future accretion is already secured, with more than half of our building being already pre-let. We continue to work, as I said, to continue to pre-let or to let the building we have recently delivered and the one which are going to be delivered in the coming years. If you put all together these additional rents we will get from our development pipeline. We are talking EUR 120 million to EUR 130 million of IFRS additional rents. Which is a very decent number when you compare to the global rent of Gecina, which is for the office portfolio, around EUR 500 million. Clearly, we are going to move the needle, with such additional rents in the future.

Regarding our financial performance for this first half of 2021, of course, the numbers you have in front of you are the good illustration of what we've done, with lightly positive like-for-like growth in our portfolio. Which is the result, of course, of all the work which has been done with the teams, in terms of securing leases with our tenants. Keeping in mind that, of course, we will come back to that in one second, we've been impacted by lower indexations than the previous years and lower occupancy rates than what we have usually on our portfolio. This is quite decent number, compared to the market today. Of course, globally speaking, our rents are decreasing, and that's a result of all the assets that we have transferred to the pipeline. The growth we will have tomorrow and of the disposal we've done.

We're refocusing our portfolio on prime location. That's the reason why also thanks to this location and this prime location that we are able today to show you this level of like-for-like growth, both in term of rent and in valuations. Our FFO, of course, is decreasing. That's the result of the disposal, as I said. One of the benefit of this disposal is that we continue to decrease our LTV. We are at 33.4%, including duties. Taking into consideration the disposal we've done earlier this month, after the 30th of June, we will be, or we are today, at 32.3%. Our NTA is up to +1.5%. I will come back to that in one second.

Our FFO, and the move of our FFO, during this first half, you will see all what we said in this presentation in term of slightly positive like-for-like. In term of impact of renovations and transfer asset to the pipeline, in terms of portfolio rotation. Also, that's important, all the work we've done to continue to optimize our management and financial structure. We've continued to decrease our G&A and our average cost of debt. This is contribution to our FFO and future FFO. During this first half, we are benefiting from a decrease in the provisions we've done. You know that we are now today a collection rate of around 99%, even above. We continue to collect rent for H1, meaning that we are at a normalized level, the level of provision is normalized also.

That's also the reason why we have such a gap, compared to last year. Regarding our gross rent performance, as I said, slightly positive. I think what's more important is to look forward and to imagine what could be 2022. We've been impacted by quite a limited indexation. We know that it will be also the case for the second half of 2021, because we will get the indices of Q2 2020. Which, of course, have been impacted by the strong decrease in the GDP. We will get recovery in 2022. This is one of the driver of the growth of our like-for-like for 2022. The other driver, of course, is the improvement in our occupancy rate.

You have an analysis for the first time on this chart on this page. Which is the projection of what should be or could be or will be our like occupancy rate for the future, considering what it is secure today. As I said, we have signed a couple of leases, for example, with CGI on Carré Michelet, with Pierre Fabre on Anthos, which will start next year. Of course, these buildings are today vacant, they are impacting our occupancy rate. If you look forward on the rent we will get on this building, you can see the improvement on this chart, it's more or less 2% increase in our occupancy rate for next year on a full year basis, which will be on 2022 and 2023. It's a very high number, the impact will be very positive on our figures. Regarding our NAV.

As I said, up by +1.5%, and as you can see, all of the engine of growth are contributing to this positive impact. The like-for-like on offices, I will come back to that in one second. On Resi, of course, and value creation in the development pipeline. Regarding valuations, which are, of course, the explanation of the growth of our NTA. What's interesting is that globally speaking, we are at a +1% on a like-for-like basis, but with a strong polarization between locations, as Méka said, for investment and for the leading market. You have here a good illustration of what happened in the market with a still positive valuation growth in Paris, inside Paris, and negative outside of Paris, even if we have stabilized compared to the decrease we had end of last year for Western Crescent and La Défense.

There's still very limited number of transactions, complicated to say where are the value today in this location. We'll see when transaction will come back. If we move to the liability side of our balance sheet. Of course, as you can see, we have benefited from all the operation we've made during H1, all the renegotiation, all the bond issuance we've done. Thanks to that, we've been able to increase the average maturity of our debt 7.6 years, and to decrease its average cost. We are now at the average cost for the drawn debt at 0.9%. As I said, what is also very important for us is not only the financial metrics of this debt, but also its intrinsic quality. Of course, it's much more green than it was.

Also in terms of maturity, you can see that our maturity schedule on page 53 is very smooth. We are, of course, taking advantage of the appetite of bond investors for long-term maturity to secure long-term duration on our debt, and not having any refinancing at a too high level in the coming year. If you take into consideration the bank facilities that we have, we are covering all our maturities for the next 3 years. Of course, we have a very strong balance sheet, and the result of that is our rating as we are A- and A3. Maybe to conclude, one word on our guidance. As you have seen, we have confirmed our guidance at EUR 5.3 for 2021.

In fact, it could be seen as a flat guidance, but it's an increase in this guidance because you have to keep in mind that when we have guided this EUR 5.3 beginning of the year, we were considering no disposals. As we have secured during this year, and we have done EUR 450 million of disposals, of course, we are able, thanks to the work we've done on the operational side and on our financings, to compensate this disposal to offset the impact of these disposals. Without these disposals, I think that we should have been at EUR 5.4 per share. It means that this EUR 5.3 should be seen as clearly an updated guidance. Of course, we continue to reduce the risk of the portfolio with this disposal in terms of leverage and in terms of location.

What's also very important for us is, as you've seen, the long-term view we have on our business. That's something that you have to keep in mind when you are looking at our equity story. We have, thanks to our pipeline growth, which is embedded in the company, this 120 to 130. I think that when you look at what happened in this market during the first half of this year, when you look where are located most of these projects, I think that we can have a conviction that the choice we've made in the past are the right ones. These assets will clearly contribute to the growth of tomorrow, both in term of NTA and in term of FFO. Thank you for your attention and Méka , myself, and of course Samuel are ready to answer your questions.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Thank you, Nicolas. Appreciate it. Yes. In the room. Can you please hand over the mic? Good morning.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Analyst, ODDO BHF

Good morning. Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF. Thank you very much for this presentation. I would have three questions, if I may. My first question would be, is it possible to have more colors on the recovery of the leasing activity outside of Paris, Neuilly and Levallois. Do you see an improvement also on this parameter? My second question is about LTV and opportunistic approach on investment market. You have today, LTV ratio, which is quite low, and you have said in your presentation that this LTV offers potential for opportunistic approach on investment market. Are you looking at any major opportunity today or do you want to look at any major opportunity maybe in the coming months? My third question, it's about the growth of cash flow per share.

We know that you have a long-term strategy and you have interesting midterm perspective, but maybe in a more short-term perspective. Are you looking at making your cash flow per share growing, for example, I don't know, for 2022, 2023? Is it something that you are looking at? Thank you.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Thank you very much. Three very good questions. Thank you. Outside of Paris, Neuilly and Levallois, the markets are very polarized, we cannot make just a summarize and put everything in the same basket. If we look at what you are seeing, for instance, La Défense has been very active. There was some correction in the rents, and now it is flattering. We are observing some transactions in La Défense. What we have to be very aware of is nobody today is going to move and take new spaces if these spaces are not high quality, high standards in terms of sustainability, high standards in terms of services. The quality of each building and each location becomes much more important. It's really become very granular.

For instance, Carré Michelet is very attractive, and we have been very successful, of course, thanks to Valérie Britay and also her team for what they have achieved so far. The quality of the building has attracted long-term tenants, and they have considered that they can have the best tool in order to develop their business in the future. Most of the conversations we had, this is interesting too, is not just about cost-cutting. The cost-cutting comes from working from home/digitization, which is going to reduce the overheads actually, one way or another. The quality of location in order to attract talent and to be capable to deliver the good and deliver the business and to grow the business. Which has been the permanent conversations we had with our tenants at very high level, CEO, chairman, strategic observation, this is what they are looking for.

If you have a very average building, which is not reaching the good standards, not in the good location, and not delivering the good services, there is no chance to find a tenant, even at a very low rent. This is the transformation we are seeing with all the sustainability and the commitment in terms of improvement of our standards, not only in our buildings, but globally in the markets. This becomes the standard of future. Nobody would accept that. What we are developing, the second point, what we are developing in terms of improving the quality of our assets. Six years ago, when I joined the board of Gecina, some people, and we were encouraging the company to consider value creation and total return strategy.

A couple of people around the table very wisely would say, "Why would you inject that much CapEx, whereas with a little bit of lipstick, type of works you can lease at very low levels, and maybe it's lower, but globally speaking, you are not injecting CapEx." We see that it doesn't work today. It doesn't work, and we did the right thing. I still believe that we did the right thing to improve the quality of our assets because this is becoming more and more touchy, including the fact that we are going to face taxonomies and all kind of difficult issues on the environmental side. At the same time as tenants, they will simply not accept average buildings. That's it. This is much more polarized. Still believe that La Défense is a good market, but it has to improve.

Not all the buildings are at the right standards. There is a lot of obsolescence in different areas. Definitely, this is an attractive place. When you are moving much more further in very secondary location, et cetera, what I said in terms of consequences of digitization, of the obligation for the competition between corporates to attract talents and to be the best in class in whatever they are doing The fact that they are improving the quality of their collaborators, et cetera, and attracting these talents, this is not going to work. This is what we are seeing, by the way, in the market, not only in Gecina but in other places. Having said so, though, we have improved our rents in La Défense, for instance, in Carré Michelet. We are seeing good signs in Boulogne or Issy-les-Moulineaux.

We are seeing good signs in the best buildings we have, in the best buildings we have developed. I don't know if it really answers very precisely to your question, but we are seeing signs of improvement because the market is booming in the city center of Paris. There is no expansion possible that much. It goes to good buildings in those areas. It will come. It will come slower, but it will come, and it's on its way. We have signed couple of good transactions in Boulogne, in Issy-les-Moulineaux, in other places still going forward. Actually, there are a couple of signatures which are going hopefully to be concluded by next week. I will start by growing cash flow per share. This is something we are working on every single day.

It doesn't mean that we should keep nature asset or non-strategic just for the sake to keep cash flow. Because if over time, it becomes difficult to lease them, if they became vacant, if we need to inject more CapEx, and we are not even sure that we can really use them, this is not the right decision to be made for our shareholders. We still keep working on increasing the cash flow. We are working on that. By the way, we are looking at couple of investment in the market. It works, it doesn't work. We are very strict. We are never a forced buyer, still we are working hard in order to improve the cash flow. With our balance sheet profile, we probably are in a better position to be capable to do so compared to others. Today, we can face that.

On opportunities we can observe, definitely our profile also on the balance sheet will give us more capacity to observe that. Not that many opportunities, not only M&As, by the way, it can be also the portfolios or other kind of collaboration. That is something which cannot be planned. You cannot say, "Next week, I'm going to do a big merger and acquisition." Depends on what the conditions are, where it is located, how much accredit is going to be for the company, and how it's going to create value. This is a permanent job you are doing, it needs confidentiality, and it needs to be done in a proper way and not just growing for growing. We have seen in the past that growing for growing is not good for anybody in the market.

We need to make it even more accredit for the company, even more giving strength and giving capacity to the company to move forward.

Nicolas Dutreuil
Deputy CEO in Charge of Finance, Gecina

If you look at the figures coming from the development pipeline, if you look at the committed and secured pipeline, it is more than EUR 1 billion to be invested in the pipeline with a yield on cost of above 5%. Potentially, if we do nothing else, that is an impact of 5% on the LTV. It means that we have this growth which is embedded. We have the ability to finance it. As Méka said, we are not at all a forced buyer. We are able to deliver growth in the coming years.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

By the way, of course, we cannot always talk about comparison with the past, remember that we sold our healthcare sector in early 2016, and our LTV was low, around 29%, as much as I recall. The next year, we bought Eurosic. It is a question of patience, capacity, and working hard and still keeping the strength of our balance sheet. I think we have a question on the line, Christopher Fremantle. Good morning, Christopher.

Speaker 4

Hi, can you hear me?

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Yep. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

I had two questions. They should be relatively short. The first is just asking for a little bit more detail on the 7% overall rent decline. You provide some reasons in the release that explain, I think, a total of EUR 10 million. The actual decline in rents is more like EUR 25 million, I think. Can you just give a little bit more detail? I suspect it is assets transferred to the pipeline the prior year that accounts for the difference, but if you could just confirm that, please. That is my first question.

The second question is about, I suppose, a follow-up on growth. In 2021, I think the impact of disposals and assets transferred to the pipeline more than offset the growth from the new rents from your development pipeline. I just was asking if you could give some reassurance that that is not likely to be the case again in 2022, i.e., that you can deliver some income growth in 2022? A little bit of a follow-up on a previous question, please.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Well, maybe Nicolas, you start and then we'll jump in next. Good question. Thank you.

Nicolas Dutreuil
Deputy CEO in Charge of Finance, Gecina

On the rent decline of 7%, which were, of course, something which was expected, because we are in line with our guidance. For us, internally, with our budget, both in term of France, in term of EBITDA, in term of financial expenses. It's clearly a large part from asset transfer to the pipeline or assets refurbished during 2021. Most of them is a refueling of the pipeline, a part coming from assets which are today under redevelopment, but should be delivered quickly, I think end of 2021, beginning of 2022. I do not have the detail of the EUR 25 million top of my head, but I think that Samuel will have all the numbers if needed. Regarding the growth, I think that maybe leaving the mic to Méka.

We had a decline or compensation between the disposals and the deliveries and the like for like in 2021. You have also to keep in mind, if we look at the years before, all the growth in NAV that we have generated, thanks to the disposals made above market values and, of course, value creation coming from the pipeline. That's important to look at the cash flow. As Méka said, that's a metric that we are looking at very carefully. We have also to look at it, globally speaking, with the growth that we are also delivering in NAV.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

To add and complete the comments made by the answer brought by Nicolas. Actually, the decline in rents was more or less expected because the guidance we gave at the beginning of this year, before any disposition, was by 5.3% compared to last year, which was much higher. This is because of the dispositions we made and the assets we transferred to the pipeline. This is a combination of the two, and it was expected. Now, the reality is that if you look at our guidance, we are much better because the 5.3% is confirmed after dispositions, which means that if we haven't done these dispositions, we would be EUR 0.10-ish above the 5.3% on full year, if you want to compare apple to apple. The growth in 2022, I think that the 2021 is a low level year.

In 2022, we should start to see growth in rents because, as Nicolas said, a largely part of our negotiations and the signatures we made also will start to deliver IFRS rents during the course of 2022. Of course, some of our buildings which are going to be completed, like L1ve, like others, will come into operation and will deliver also rents, and more to come. I don't believe that it is pessimistic, and we should consider that we are not going to have a growth in 2022. I think that this is a low level. We knew that we'll end up there. Of course, we have also been hit by COVID, but we have been very resilient and very strong. Now we are preparing the next set of good news in terms of rents and revenues, actually, of cash flow. Thank you.

Maybe if there is another question coming from Jonathan Kownator. Jonathan, good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just a follow-up, obviously, to Chris' question. Maybe if we can add more numbers to that. Effectively, are you expecting to continue disposals to the tune that you have, or do you think that's it, effectively, with almost EUR 500 million already this year, you are pretty much done, and you got the portfolio where you want it to in terms of quality? That's question number one. Question number two, obviously, you have a number of controlled and certain projects as well. How much rent are you planning to lose next year from assets that you are going to put into redevelopment or over the next, say, 12-24 months? Thank you.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Thank you. I will start and then over to Nicolas or Samuel to answer to your second question. Disposition for Gecina, as you probably can notice, is not a question of deleveraging or paying back our debts or whatever. It's just a question of considering the maturity of the assets and considering this is the right time to dispose, whether the asset is no more strategic and/or getting mature, we consider that we are done with the value creation. There's one thing. I absolutely agree with the concerns you may have in terms of increasing the revenues, and this is something we are working hard on every single day by working on each of our KPIs in each of the lines.

Ultimately, some of the assets over time, whether they are not in a good location, whether they are not in the good standards, et cetera, they are becoming a nonvalue, because if they cannot be the right place to attract tenants, it won't work. The reason we are keeping to continue, and by the way, most of our colleagues in the market are following our path, but not at the same speed. Maybe we are wrong, I don't know if we are right or wrong, but we consider that we are right that the transformation and the standards and especially the environmental issues will become so important that we cannot escape that. This is something we have to integrate globally and continue to improve the quality of our assets. Otherwise, this is going to be detrimental to the whole stakeholders and especially the shareholders ultimately. This is not a question.

Speaker 5

Sorry. Fully agree.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

This is a question of considering, and you know that we have no target in terms of disposition because we need to sell such an amount per year and consider whether it makes sense or not. This is a question of improving and becoming more and more high standards in the type of assets you are delivering as well.

Speaker 5

Of course. You should have an assessment.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

On your second question, Samuel, you will t ake the mic.

Samuel Henry-Diesbach
Head of Financial Communications, Gecina

Yeah, Jonathan. If you want to try to have an idea of how many potential rents we can unplug, to launch the control and certain pipeline, you have the details when you are looking at the table for annualized rents. We say that, in the annualized rents as of end June 2021, there are EUR 21 million of rents, which have been get from asset, which are set to be delivered ahead, to be restructured ahead and transferred to the pipeline. If you go maybe on the slideshow on page 45, we are talking about the brown box, these EUR 21 million mostly, that corresponds to the asset that will generate the bar that you have on the additional rents from control and certain pipelines. That is deliveries that you can expect between 2023 and 2026.

Roughly, for the purpose of your model, you can expect the EUR 21 million on annualized base rents are likely to be unplugged, let's say between 2022 and 2024.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. If you can hear me, sorry, just one follow-up. Just on the disposals, obviously you should have an assessment of what is mature and what is non-core at this stage. Is there more numbers to that? How much of your portfolio today is mature and non-core and you could consider still disposing? Not going to pin you on a target or on the timeframe, but just an assessment on your overall portfolio. Thank you.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

This is not a number that we are publishing, the reason is that we are looking at each of every asset all the time and considering whether it works or not, and depending what our demands on the markets are. It is not something that is structuring the market and considering that what is that about. We do not follow that and consider. We do not consider that we have an amount that we have to dispose every year. Again, this is maybe because we do not need that in terms of reducing our LTV over time. What you have in our pipeline is also an indication of what we consider to be considered and to be improved in the coming period.

If an asset in the pipeline is fairly refurbished and high standards, but we consider that once leased, it is mature and we cannot make any more value out of it, we're going to dispose. This is about value creation. Ultimately this is about distribution, and the distribution is also part of the capital gain that we have to do by law. This is a combination of the two, and this is what we do over time. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Next question on the line from Paul May of Barclays. It is a read-in question. Samuel, you can maybe take this one, please.

Samuel Henry-Diesbach
Head of Financial Communications, Gecina

Paul May at Barclays. He's asking us about Google Mobility data for Paris versus London. I think that both seems to be at -40% for workplace Monday to Friday with a strong recovery to pre-COVID levels on the weekend. Is the Monday to Friday not a better representation of the office traffic, in which case Paris and London are broadly similar for openings? Thanks for your question. Actually, we are looking at all figures. The figures that we are using is average on the whole week. Even if we are taking some figures from Monday to Friday, there is still a significant difference between Paris and London. We're not so sure about the reason why Paris is ahead of London in terms of way back to the office. Maybe it's something to do with the way the city is built.

We are talking about urbanistic definition of the city, knowing that Paris city, for instance, is six times more dense than London. That people are living close to the place they work in and probably in a smaller flat as well, which are also drivers that can bring people back to the office quicker than in London, maybe. That's only a guess. The truth is that the statistics, which are disclosed by Google, even if you exclude the weekends, shows the same ranking between the cities. The other factor, which is more technical, maybe you can discuss it if you want, Paul, but the figures are a bit weaker in July, for instance, and that's because we are comparing the traffic compared to a fixed point over the year.

That means that when you are entering into a holidays period, it seems to be weaker than before. The truth is that we have seen in June a strong recovery in the path back to the office along the period of time when the constraints fade out regarding the health crisis. That's something that should go the way back to the office and something in line with the discussion we had with some of our tenants and some of our users as well.

Méka Brunel
CEO, Gecina

Yeah, thank you, Samuel. I would add to that, it of course, today we cannot compare that much what is going to be working from home or not, because there is still restrictions everywhere. France has been reopened something around 21st of June or maybe end of June or early July. This is not yet in London, maybe this week. I think that we cannot compare if you have those kind of restrictions and those kind of discussions and you know that everywhere in the world, especially in our countries, we have those conversations. We probably will see, if we are going to normalization in that area, which is not yet the case, we will see how we can compare so far.

Having said so, though, we have already seen working from home before COVID, probably this is going to be much more organized, and we're going to see what are going to be the consequences of that at the same time as digitization is going to move faster than ever. There is another question coming from Marie Dormeuil. Thank you, Marie. You describe tenants exclusively looking prime quality space. How much of your standing portfolio would not fit in this category? From there, how much of this arguably obsolete stock would you consider selling versus redeveloping? Very good question. Actually, as we mentioned, when I'm talking prime quality space, I'm not talking specifically in the Paris CBD only. This is not about that.

For instance, you have seen that we have signed a redevelopment, actually pre-leasing and redevelopment with Edenred in Montrouge, which is next to Paris, for actually 12,000 sq m to be redeveloped for them ahead of time and with the large tenants coming forward. The standards matters, the quality of the location matters, the quality of the services matters. Actually, if you look again at our— two answers. 73%-75%, maybe now, of our portfolio is located in Paris and Neuilly, Levallois, so in the best area. It gives you an idea of what the quality of our locations are and where we consider that roughly, not on all assets, because we consider every asset one by one, consider whether redevelop or sell.

Definitely consider these assets are in markets that deserve our consideration in terms of redeveloping and repositioning. For the rest, it's really case by case that we are considering. It doesn't mean that everything is obsolete, and it doesn't mean that everything which is obsolete cannot be fixed and get to a better market, and it doesn't mean that if it is refurbished. The arbitrage is between refurbishing, leasing and selling or selling as is. We definitely, all the time, consider those optionality between sell and/or redevelop and consider whether it makes sense or not. I gave you a couple of numbers that give you a scheme of what can be considered as very solid and all the rest that which are important to consider and still contributing.

We said that 93% of our portfolio has still a potential, of the office portfolio, potential of reversion to come, around +5%. We still have capacity to go and extract those values, actually, even more after the COVID crisis. I don't see any other questions online. Any other questions in the audience? No? Well, of course, we remain 100% available, and we'll have the chance to see most of you directly or through screens during the course of the next week. Do not hesitate to revert to us, especially to Samuel and his team, but also Nicolas and myself, if you have any question or any comment, we will consider. Thank you very much for your attention. Have a good day and excellent weekend and nice vacation. Thank you.