Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's Thales Q3 2021 Order Intake and Sales conference call. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. At which time, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, and I would now like to hand the conference over to Monsieur Bertrand Delcaire, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Yes, hello. Good morning. Welcome and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Thales' nine-month 2021 order intake and sales. I'm Bertrand Delcaire, the Head of Investor Relations at Thales. With me today is Pascal Bouchiat, CFO. This presentation is also webcast live on our website at thalesgroup.com, where the slides and press release are also available for download. A replay of the call will be available in a few hours. With that, I would like to turn over the call to Pascal Bouchiat.
Thank you, Bertrand, and good morning, everyone. Before moving on to the numbers, as usual, I wanted to highlight a few key messages. I'm now on slide two. Of course, early in August, we announced our entry into exclusive negotiations on the disposal of our transport business. I won't come back here on the strong rationale for this strategic move. Let me just point out that in applications of IFRS 5, transport is now treated as discontinued operations, which means that all the figures in this presentation exclude it, for both 2020 and 2021. We're making good progress on all the required social processes and expect to sign the final agreement with Hitachi in Q1 2022, putting us on track to close the transaction by the end of 2022 or early in 2023. Earlier this month, we held our first ESG Investor Day.
We presented a lot of information on ESG-related growth opportunities across the group and the societal benefits of defense and the strict regulations that govern it. On the acceleration of our internal action plans. As they are central to our strategy, to our growth strategy, we will regularly come back on them in future presentations. In the meantime, don't hesitate to contact Bertrand and the IR team if you want to discuss these topics further. Finally, I wanted to highlight two recent announcements. First, our largest defense customers are once again confirming the growth of their budget. For example, the French government presented its 2022 budget law earlier this month. The overall budget is 4% above 2021 and 14% above 2019. We are seeing a similar trend in our other large markets.
The U.K. autumn budget will be released tomorrow, and it is expected to show significant growth as well, in line with the previous government's announcements. Second, I wanted to highlight our recent product announcement that is a great example of material revenue synergy with Gemalto. I'm referring to the strategic agreement we signed with Google Cloud to co-develop a sovereign cloud offering. This project is a compelling demonstration of the product synergies we can achieve with Gemalto, as it integrates both Thales and Gemalto cybersecurity capabilities into a product that targets the sovereign French market, customers that are managing critical infrastructures but want to have access to cloud solutions. The solutions will take some time to generate revenue, but the medium-term opportunity is quite material, EUR several hundred million in a few years' time.
Turning now to slide three, which summarizes our key figures for the third quarter and the first nine months of the year. First, for clarity purposes, let me repeat that all the figures presented in this presentation are excluding the transport business, both for 2020 and for 2021, in accordance with IFRS 5. Now, when we look at the numbers, as you can see on the slide, the commercial dynamics remain good during our Q3, with order intake at +9% organically, taking us to a solid 28% over nine months. We'll have a look at the moving parts in greater detail in the next slide. Sales over nine months are up by 6.2% organically, despite a slight negative growth in Q3 that I will also explain in a minute. I'm now on slide four, looking to details at our order intake.
As mentioned just before, Q3 was again a strong quarter for us in terms of commercial activity, with an organic growth at +9% after an already dynamic H1, taking us to a strong EUR 10.7 billion in nine months, up 28% organically against nine months 2020. Interestingly, on the same scope, this is also above the EUR 10.3 billion of orders over the nine months of 2019. Looking at the chart by unit value, it's worth noting that all categories, small, medium, and large orders, clearly progressed over the period. The strong growth was driven by both large orders above EUR 100 million, increasing from 6 last year to 9 this year, and medium-sized orders between EUR 10 million and EUR 100 million, which increased by 39% during the period.
You can find the list of large orders in the press release. They were spread across many, many geographies in defense and security and in space. Small orders also remain strong, up by 5% nine months and by 9% in Q3 2021. Turning now to slide five, looking at sales growth. Maybe just a word on the currency impact, as you can see that the Q3 currency impact was actually positive at EUR 26 million, hence reducing the negative impact over nine months to -EUR 49 million. We expect the trend to continue in the direction over Q4. However, Q3 2021 came slightly negative, -1.4%. This was not a surprise for us, as Q3 last year was strong, benefiting from a rebound after the productivity disruptions during Q2 2020.
Please keep in mind that our civil aero and biometric businesses remain both impacted by this sanitary crisis. Over nine months, we are now at +6.2% organic growth, mostly driven by the strong sales momentum in Space on the back of its ongoing commercial successes, and also a continuous robust scenario in Defense and Security with high single-digit organic growth versus the same period of last year. Turning to the geographical perspective, let me just point out that the rebound was stronger in mature markets, especially in France and the rest of Europe, but with emerging countries still at a positive organic growth of 3% in nine months. Now, looking briefly at each segment one by one. I'm now on slide six for Aerospace.
Orders were strongly up, as you can see, by 63% organically, thanks to the ongoing momentum in space, including a new large order over EUR 100 million in Q3 for the security facility and mission segments of Galileo. It is also important to note that aeronautics orders started to rebound in Q3. They were up 8%, starting with the civil aero aftermarket, as you can imagine. Sales were up by 8.1% organically over nine months, driven by the space business, which was up by 27% over nine months. Despite our revenue in aeronautics still materially impacted by the ongoing sanitary crisis, with the only visible rebound in aftermarket, as I was mentioning just before. Turning now to slide seven, looking at the defense and security segments.
Order intake remains strong, up organically by 24%, with a total of five large orders above EUR 100 million since the beginning of the year, including a support contract for the French MOD that we signed during Q3. Organic sales growth remain also clearly solid at almost 8% organic growth over nine months, and despite a Q3 with higher comps. As I mentioned earlier, Q3 2020 benefited from a rebound after a Q2 impacted by productivity disruptions at the start of the sanitary crisis. That was especially true in defense and security businesses with our employees unable to access sites during the first lockdowns. Let me however, be clear, this negative growth in Q3 was anticipated and it doesn't jeopardize our ambition of a mid- to high single-digit growth for the segments over the full year.
Turning to slide eight, looking now at our last segment, digital identity and security. As I mentioned previously, order intake at DIS is structurally aligned with sales for most businesses as they operate on short cycles. Hence, no need for me to comment. At EUR 2.1 billion over nine months, sales were down by 1.3% on an organic basis with a Q3 2021 that came flat versus Q3 of last year. Among the factors to mention here, biometrics was naturally depressed over the period with less demand for passport and border control system. Encouragingly, sales started to rebound in Q3, organically up by 5%. On the other hand, cybersecurity confirmed its sales momentum at 11% organically over the nine months period, with another high single-digit growth in Q3.
Finally, as you know, the chip shortage is creating a temporary mismatch between supply and demand worldwide, and it created some delays in Q3, which we're estimating at around EUR 20 million-EUR 30 million, so 2%-3% of growth. Which brings me to the last slide nine, with a reminder of our 2021 financial objective. As you understood, Q3 order intake is in line with our expectations, and we have a solid pipeline of orders for Q4, which allow us to confirm our full-year order intake targets, namely a book-to-bill ratio above one. In spite of the small headwind from the semiconductor crisis, our sales dynamics is strong, and we are confirming our full-year guidance, both in terms of sales and EBIT margin. Many thanks again for your attentions, and I will now be pleased to take your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the hash key. Once again, please press star one if you wish to ask a question. Your first question comes from the line of George Zhao of Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. I guess first question, on defense, you know, in the past you've talked about having more fixed price contracts than some of your other peers. I guess, can you give us any figures on how much of the business is either repriced on a short-term contract award or has passed through clauses built in the contracts to automatically pass on any raw material cost increases? And then second question, you know, last month, you know, you called out minimal contribution from the Attack-c lass submarines in the results last year. But had the project gone through as originally intended, what would have been the lifetime value to Thales, and how does that play into your reiteration of the 4%-6% medium-term growth rate for the business? Thanks.
Okay. Good morning, George. I have to say that, I mean, your line is not of great quality. Coming back on your first questions, and, I mean, inflation and, I mean, the structure of our contract and to which extent do we have, I mean, pass-through mechanism, allowing to pass our increase in materials prices to our customers. I need to spend a bit of time, I mean, to come back on the structure of our project. Let me start with our businesses that manage a project. This relates in particular to our defense and security, but also to our space business.
Here, I mean, there are two situations. The first situations, where, I mean, we have indexation clauses, basically on material inputs, but also on wages. Because of those indexation mechanism, we are well protected, in case of increase in both material costs or wages. Now, there are also in those project businesses, where we're committed on a fixed and firm prices. In that situations, in most cases, we're protected because before we are awarded any contract, I mean, we have commitments from our suppliers.
Because of that, I mean, we have also this situation, this level of protections. Now, for the rest of our businesses, which relates in particular to our avionics business or to most of our DIS businesses, which are more about managing flows of products, small orders, but recurring orders. Here, in most cases, it's more how we say short-term or annual, I mean, negotiations in terms of prices. And then at the end of the day, it's a question of offer and demand. Of course, I mean, as we see, most actors in this field being impacted by the increase in materials.
There will be negotiations and we are quite convinced that we will be able to manage to pass to our clients the necessary increase in prices in order to reflect the increase in raw materials. Okay, that was your first question. Second one was about the impact of the Australian submarines and to which extent could this affect our mid-term growth trajectory for our defense and security business?
Was it the question, George?
Yeah. I guess the question is, you know, had the project gone through as originally intended, what would have been the lifetime value? I guess how, yeah, how does that play into the iteration of the medium term of growth? I know you had called out minimal contributions last year.
Yes.
You could think about the overall lifetime value had that gone through.
Okay. I mean, George, I guess I mean to address your questions, I need to talk about both Naval Group and Thales. Relating to Naval Group, as we have already mentioned, by the way, we communicated quite quickly after the announcement of the consolidation of this contract. We mentioned that, I mean relating to Naval Group on which as you know, we have a 35% stake. Overall, we mentioned that this contract was expecting to bring a level of annual revenues of around EUR 500 million, with a level of EBIT margin from Naval Group around 8%.
I mean, if you make the calculations and take into account our 35% stake in Naval Group, I mean, and after tax of course, you realize that, I mean, the impact for us through the equity earning from Naval Group is not something which is sizable for Thales as a group. The second aspect relates to our own business and the potential missed opportunity relating to our supply from Thales to this project. What we also mentioned was that, I mean, the level of contract that we booked so far was very low. I mean, it was below EUR 30 million.
I mean, I don't expect any significant impact. To your question about, I mean, the midterm growth rate for our defense and security business, I mean, my view is that it will not have any significant impact. I mean, this is life. I mean, of course, I mean, we are managing our businesses with good news and sometimes a bit of less good news. It's part, for me, it's part of the ballpark of the management of opportunities. In no way does this compromise our midterms guidance of mid-single digit for our defense and security business.
Just on that, I mean, you mentioned that EUR 30 million of orders in your own business. Would that have been expected to ramp up over time though?
No. I mean, this EUR 30 million orders was what we already booked in the previous quarters relating to this contract. We are expecting, I mean, to book a few more tens of millions of EUR relating to these contracts in 2022. Once again, I mean, what we're talking about is a few tens of millions of EUR that we are expecting in 2022. When you compare this level to what we expect in terms of level of booking for our defense and security business, I guess, you will agree with me to say that it is something that is insignificant.
Okay. Makes sense. Thank you.
Thank you very much, George.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from the line of Benjamin Heelan of Bank of America. Please go ahead and ask your question.
Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask a question on aeronautics. I think you gave us the numbers for orders in Q3. How did the business perform from a sales perspective in Q3, and how are you seeing trends in that business? I guess a quick follow on from one of the questions George asked around pricing. Does that mean that we should assume you are seeing actually, you know, better pricing in the aeronautics business? That was the first question. Second question was on the semiconductor shortage that you called out. Keen to understand kind of how much of the digital identity security business is exposed to this. Is it a big issue?
Is it not that big an issue? How are you thinking about that into 2022? Finally, on the Google Cloud contract that you announced, I think you mentioned, you know, a couple of hundred million EUR of sales in medium term. Does that mean that we should assume you already have governments signed up to the contract, or is that just kind of an early expectation, and how should we think about margins? Thank you.
Mm-hmm. Okay, Ben. I mean, on your first questions relating to the civil aero business, I mean, what we have seen in Q3 is a bit of a mix, a trend. We clearly see, I mean, a positive trend relating to the aftermarket on the single-aisle segment. And this, by the way, very much in line with, I mean, overall, I mean, the recovery of the domestic market. Here, I mean, overall pretty positive.
On the long haul or wide body on the other side, I mean, it's true that at this point we don't see any significant trend up in terms of level of sales. Now, on the OEM, here again, I mean, a slight trend up relating to the single-aisle market. On the wide body, however, I mean, a situation which continue to be overall depressed. Overall, it means that aftermarket is overall positive in terms of level of sales against Q3 of 2020. I mean, this is really, I mean, we relating in particular to our cockpit avionics business.
I mean, the rest is overall pretty much flattish. Overall, I mean, a slight positive growth, but on a level which remains quite modest as we speak, yeah. Your question on pricing was also on civil aero, or was it broader?
No, it was specifically on civil aero.
Okay. I mean, on pricing, I mean, no issue. No issue in terms of pricing. I mean, it's more about speed of recovery both in aftermarket, and you see that overall, it start to materialize, I mean, on aftermarket. Today on OEM, no, it's not a question of pricing, it's more a question of overall demand. Second question about chip shortage. I mean, if I look back at what we managed to do on this point, we do think that we managed to navigate through this chip shortage quite well.
I mean, when I look back at the impact of our DIS business, I mean, looking at the end of September level of revenue, what we missed overall in terms of sales is between EUR 20 million-EUR 30 million of sales. This relating to EUR 2.1 billion of sales. We are talking about between 1%-1.5% of missed growth relating to this chip shortage. Now, I mean, what is important to consider is that we don't see the situations improving overall in terms of supply.
It's true that we had a bit of cutoff between Q3 and Q4 in terms of chip, I mean, supply, which had an effect on Q3, as I mentioned, something around EUR 20 million on Q3. There will be a transfer between Q3 and Q4. Will we see also a transfer of supply from Q4 to Q1? That is today an open point. We are quite vigilant about managing in 2022 as well as we manage in 2021. Let's be very clear.
I mean, the situations relating to the supply of chips for Thales and for our DIS business, where we consume a number of chips, has absolutely nothing to do with, I mean, what you heard about, I mean, the impact on other sectors, in particular the automotive sectors. It's true that, I mean, even EUR 20 million or 30 million of missed sales, this represent approximately 1% of the overall 2021 level of revenue for our DIS's business. Your last question was about, I mean, this a pretty nice opportunities with Google Cloud. I've not mentioned a couple of hundred million euro in my presentation. I mentioned about several hundred million euros.
We are quite positive on that. This is today, I mean, our expectations. It doesn't mean that we have already signed contracts because it will take a bit of time, I mean, to put together the overall offering together with Google Cloud. We think that our business will be ready, I mean, to start, I mean, providing a service probably mid-2023. Yes, I mean, if you look at our expectation for 2025, 2026 is several hundred million EUR in terms of level of sales. I don't want to be that specific in terms of margin as you ask for.
I mean, margins are in line with the level of margins that we want to get in Thales. Probably considering that, it is in line with the overall average level of margins that Thales will be able to deliver in this horizon of time.
Okay, great. Very clear. Thank you, Pascal.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Zafar Khan of Société Générale. Please ask your question.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. I have three questions please. First one is just on the Avionics nine months versus nine months sales. I was thinking that given the very strong improvement you've seen in space, I imagine Avionics was probably down this nine months versus last year. The second one is just on the. There's a lot of discussion in the media on supply chains. Do you have any issues in any of the business on the supply chain side, or are you getting the stuff through as and when required? The third one is just clearly pleased that you're focusing the portfolio with the disposal of transport business. Is there any more to do on that front in terms of further focusing the portfolio?
Hello and good morning, Zafar. On your first questions, it's true that, I mean, our Avionics business for the first nine months of 2021 is below the level of sales relating to the same period of 2020. The reason is quite simple. You probably have in mind that, I mean, the sanitary crisis started really to hit as from the beginning of Q2 2020, which means that it was quite obvious in our H1 figures. I mean, we mentioned that our H1 level of sales for our Avionics business was below H1 2020.
My overall, I mean, recollection was that we mentioned that overall in H1 our level of revenue for our Avionics business, I mean, Avionics business being our aerospace segment minus our space business, we mentioned that our Avionics business in H1 was down something like 7% against last year. We said that in H2 we would see, and we confirmed that we would see, I mean, a positive or, I mean, a first recovery as compared to H2 of 2020. At this point, probably a bit too early to be more specific of what should be the level of growth in H2 2021 versus H2 2020.
We expect overall a growth against the H2 of last year. Supply chain aside, I've already commented quite extensively, I mean, the situations relating to semiconductor supply. I mean, this is really where we see today some difficulty and very much focus on our DIS business and in particular our EMV and overall smart cards business, including also our IoT business. I mean, for this, for the moment, I mean, we don't see in our other businesses a material impact or very specific issues. Of course, I mean, we are quite vigilant.
At this point, we don't see I mean any difficulties in terms of chip supply in our other businesses. Now, relating to other kind of materials or things that we buy, nothing very specific. I mean, this is also I mean the beauty of our business model, which is more based on quite a small proportion of hardware and more and more larger proportion of software, which means that for instance, we see in other sectors, in other industries, difficulties in terms of logistics, for instance, maritime logistics, for instance. I mean, at this point, I mean, we have not been impacted anyhow by this type of difficulties.
Now, it's a bit, of course, a big difference in terms of supply. It is also, I mean, people and talents, and here we all know that, I mean, the war for talent is there in many countries. This is where probably we focus the most at Thales, making sure that we keep attracting the right talents in all countries where we operate. This is of course where, I mean, we're working quite a lot to keep, I mean, being a very attractive company.
By the way, I've been very pleased to see that, I mean, there's been a survey that has been released a few weeks ago by Harris Interactive, showing that Thales was the preferred, I mean, company for young engineers in France, which is a good testimony of, I mean, our ability to attract new talents in our company. This is probably more on talents and the, I mean, the right skills that I would focus the attention of the company more than and putting aside the chip shortage, some other difficulties. Your last question was about portfolio adjustments.
I mean, of course, the disposal of our transport business was a significant move from a strategic standpoint, with really the intent to focus the company on three and only three key markets: aerospace, defense, security, and digital security and identity. Really, I mean, to focus the company on those three growing markets. We are quite happy with, I mean, the portfolio of Thales as it is, taking into account the disposal of transport business. Now, I mean, are we contemplating minor adjustments? Of course, I mean, that's always the type of thing that we're looking for.
Please do consider that I mean what we might have in mind is really I mean minor adjustments and that overall we are quite happy with our portfolio.
Could I please ask a supplementary?
Sure.
The disposal of the transportation business, hopefully when we get the money for that, I was expecting that would be given back to the shareholders in the form of maybe a buyback or a special dividend, given that you have very good cash generative businesses.
Mm-hmm.
I think what I remember reading was that you will give some back, but most will be retained for developing the group. Can you just expand on that a little bit? I was thinking, given that you are very cash generative, you don't need that money on your balance sheet.
Yes. Okay. Zafar, I mean, at this point, I mean, we shouldn't forget that at this point, it's not I mean piling up cash on our balance sheet. I mean, we have a net financial debt and as we all know, we also have a sizable level of pension obligations and pension provision for our balance sheet. Now, you are absolutely right in saying that I mean we generate a sizable level of cash flow. Of course, I mean, this transaction, I mean, the disposal of transport business raises the question about the use of proceeds.
As you know, I mean proceeds. We plan to get those proceeds either at the extreme end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023. Yes, I mean, of course, I mean, we will consider on one side, I mean, higher return of cash to our shareholders. You mentioned share buyback. I mean, we could mention potentially exceptional dividend. We could mention increasing the level of payouts. There are various tools here that we could contemplate. I mean, that's something that of course our board will consider.
At this point, I mean, it's probably a bit too early to be more specific, but I mean, the point is well noted and we will be working on this matter. I don't want to also, I mean, to discount the fact that we might also keep considering, I mean, strengthening our portfolio both from a technology but also from a geographical standpoint. It's true that, I mean, our willingness to focus the company on three markets where, I mean, there will be opportunities for us to strengthen our existing portfolio.
This is also something that we will be considering without, of course, any rush. Making sure that what we could consider in terms of acquisitions will meet our key criteria, which for me is really, I mean, how can M&A contribute to Thales', I mean, growth trajectory? Looking at assets that really, I mean, could demonstrate a good level of growth. With, of course, I mean, very much in line with our three key markets.
Of course, potentially adding a new additional set of technology in our markets together with continuing expanding Thales in geographies where today our presence is not as strong as it is in other markets. That of course, I mean, a key point for us as always, which will be, I mean, the level of valuations and making sure that it will allow us to generate a positive return on invested capital.
Thank you. Thanks very much.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Celine Fornaro of UBS. Please ask your question.
Yes. Good morning, Pascal. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll have three, if I may. The first one would be on the defense and the Q3 dynamic around sales. If you maybe could provide a little bit more understanding on what is happening there. Is it a slippage of contracts or revenue recognition? And if it's a revenue recognition issue, does that mean you're running late on a program or anything we should be aware of? My second question would be on the DIS trend.
You touched on some of the trends like cyber, but could you also provide some color on the other businesses such as smart cards and IoT and what you're seeing into year-end and for you know beginning of 2022 in terms of demand there?
Mm-hmm.
Finally, as we see the orders picking up more in aerospace and in DIS, do you think that there is potential pressure coming on the margin, you know, given the timing, particularly on aerospace over the next six to 12 months, or now is actually just a matter of reestablishing the right levels?
Good morning, Céline. I mean, on your first questions about Q3 in our defense business, I mean, please, we shouldn't overinterpret, I mean, Q3 level of revenues. We have seen in the past, by the way, in some up and down per quarters on our defense business. You probably have in mind that the Q3 2020 was quite strong in our defense business. In particular, I mean, reflecting the situation in Q2 2020, where most of a number of our sites was working at a very low rate because of the lockdown.
It's true that in Q3 2020, we took advantage of quite a significant overall catch-up effect. So which means that, of course, I mean, Q3 2020 is a more demanding reference base than, of course, H1. No, I mean, I don't anticipate any specific difficulties. I mean, you mentioned about, do we have any difficulties in terms of overall, I mean, program situations is pretty good in all our defense markets.
I mean, you have seen our level of order intake, level of profitability, is rather good, very much in line with our expectation, our guidance. Nothing behind those figures. Relating to DIS and the color on our various segments. What do we see? First, I mean, if I take the, I mean, the banking, the EMV count in particular, yes, I mean, our banking market, you probably have in mind that, overall, H1 2020 was quite strong, which explains why, I mean, in H1 2021, overall, it was more of a negative growth because of the reference base.
I mean, the reference base is becoming more modest as, I mean, H2 2020 was less strong than H1 2020. Which means that overall we're expecting, I mean, our banking business to report probably a mid-single digits top-line growth in the second half of 2021 versus H2 2020. Of course, I mean, this is being based on the assumptions that we'll get, I mean, the necessary level of chips from our suppliers. But I guess you understand from my comments that the level of demand is there. Overall, our SIM card business is also doing pretty well.
Our biometrics and identity, which suffered a lot from the crisis, has started to recover, but at this point it's still a bit modest, I have to say. Still, a bit modest but turning positive and we expect, I mean, this biometrics identity, secure identity business to report a positive growth in H2 versus H2 of last year. Overall, our cyber business is doing extremely well. I mean, I mentioned something around double digits, so this is what we expect.
The IoT business overall, I mean, we expect it to be more modest, probably after a trend which was strong. We expect, I mean, H2 to be a bit weaker. Now, all of that is once again under the assumptions that we'll get, I mean, the level of chips that we need. Yeah, I mentioned, I mean, overall, I mean, uncertainty about a few tenths of a million EUR of level of revenue driven by these potential issues relating to chip shortage. Your last question was aerospace, but I don't remember. If you can phrase it again.
Yeah, it was basically, yes, the mix of the order book that we're starting to see emerging potentially in the second half. Could that, you know, affect the margins over the, you know, short- to medium term?
No, I don't have anything in mind. I mean, you, I mean, our mix in terms of order intake. I mean, you have seen and of course, I mean, the larger proportion of space order intake in the first nine months of 2020-2021. This is the primary drivers of our overall, I mean, aerospace business. I mean, in terms of level of margin per project, I mean, there is nothing specific to report. I mean, we are always quite vigilant in terms of gross margin on order intake.
Now, of course, I mean, you probably have in mind that the overall level of margin on space is lower than what we have on our avionics business. It's really a question of mix between space and avionics. It's not among each of the two sub-segments that we have changes in terms of mix.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Christophe Menard of Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question.
Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. The first one is on the recovery in the emerging market orders. We've seen they're pretty stable in the nine months and the Q3. Do you have, I mean, do you have some sort of timing? Do you have a view on when those orders could recover? That's the first question. The second is on cybersecurity. Again, you say high single digit in Q3. There is a very strong growth in that segment over the last nine months. How sustainable is it, and are you doing better than peers in this segment? And what is the driver for that? The last one is on space. Can you update us on the Telesat order?
If you have any update that is, can be communicated to investors.
Good morning, Christophe. Your first question about emerging markets. I mean, overall, I mean, we see quite a good level of demand. I mean, the number of requests for proposal has never been so high. I mean, overall, I mean, you mentioned a slight growth in order intake end of September. It's true. I mean, overall, I mean, 4% increase in order intake for emerging market as compared to last year.
Now of course, I mean, we have not. I guess it was clear for everybody. We have still not booked in Q3 the project relating to WAFA in Egypt, which is, as you know, a quite sizable project. Of course we'll change overall, I mean, the situation in emerging countries in terms of growth relating to our order intake for 2020 for 2021. Okay. Your second question was about sustainability of growth in cyber.
Overall, I mean, I do think that, I mean, the growth that we're reporting is really, I mean, a sustainable level of growth. Overall, I mean, we have an extremely strong position in cybersecurity. It's true that, I mean, the developments of more and more remote interactions, but also the development of more and more cyberattacks results in all IT departments in all companies, but also in public institutions. We are meant to focus more and more on how to protect the company or the institutions. Again, I mean, threats coming from, I mean, more and more obvious and difficult cyberattacks together with, I mean, more and more people working remotely.
All in all, it represents, I mean, really, I mean, medium-term's a strong growth potential for Thales.
I mean, considering now in the spectrum of our technologies, of our offers, I mean, it give us opportunities and the associations of Thales with Google Cloud is probably a good demonstrations of how to partner with somebody else in order for us to bring, I mean, a cybersecurity system that allow to take advantage of a very flexible and added value cloud platform from Google to a really trusted cloud that anybody which operates in particular critical infrastructure can use, protecting themselves against threats from the outside, including by the way, the U.S. CLOUD Act.
Last point, I mean, we have unique capability in terms of cybersecurity, I mean, talents. I mean, as you know, we have today at Thales 2,800 cyber engineers. So all of that is driving, I mean, the developments of a good quality offer. So, I mean, I'm quite positive about, I mean the mid- to long-term growth of our cybersecurity business. Your last point was about Telesat. So I mean, as I keep saying, I mean, it's a question that you should direct to Telesat, of course. I mean, Telesat, I know, keep working on putting together the funding for the project.
I remind everybody that this is a $5 billion plus, I mean, project. Maybe, I mean, you might have seen, I mean, a positive news that occur in August, where, I mean, the government of Canada has confirmed, I mean, its willingness to fund this project for an amount which is slightly above CAD 1.4 billion Canadian dollars. Which of course, I mean, we view as, we see as a positive developments.
Thank you very much for the information. Thanks.
Thank you. Take care.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Bragg of Redburn. Please ask your question.
Good morning. Couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, going back to aerospace, clearly the defense part is going well. So my first question on that is how do we think about the sustainability of that? What sustainability of continued growth do you have on the space side? Then looping back to aeronautics please, is this going as well as you'd expected or a little bit slower maybe because of wide body? How would you comment on the quarter-on-quarter growth versus to Q 2021? Then the next question, and I'm sorry to come to this on a 3Q results call again, is really on potential M&A.
You know, when you say you might make some small additions or changes to the portfolio, are you thinking here acquisitions in the range of the EUR 300 million-EUR 400 million that were previously on the table before Gemalto? Or are you thinking potentially there could be something bigger, or just too early to say? Sorry to put you on the spot.
So, Jeremy, first, I mean, on aerospace, I mean, you mentioned in particular, I mean, space science. I mean, how sustainable is it? I mean, we are extremely positive about I mean the growth of our space business. Overall, I mean, we see our observations, explorations, navigation segments showing really I mean an impressive level of demand. I mentioned in the past, I mean, projects like Copernicus, projects like Galileo. So all of that is extremely positive with clear drivers coming from I mean the environmental purpose.
I mean, we share with you at our EAG and our head of space, I mean, Hervé Derrey shares with you at our EAG events a number of examples where we see, I mean, the potential for growth of this business. I mean, all of that allowing us to confirm that we expect this business to generate EUR 2.5 billion of revenue in 2024. We expect that, I mean, 2021 should be around EUR 2.1 billion. You see, I mean, a continuous growth in this business overall.
Now on our avionics business and sequentially Q3 versus Q2. Overall, I mean, it is positive, really driven by the aftermarket. I don't want to be more specific, but this is really on the aftermarket that we see, I mean, a positive sequence and aftermarket really on the domestic market, on the single-aisle business. On the widebody, as I mentioned, at this point, it's less visible in terms of growth, as compared to what we see on the single-aisle. M&A, no, I mean, of course, we keep looking at bolt-on acquisitions.
It's a matter of fact, I mean, and you mentioned, I mean, transaction of a few hundred million EUR. And yes, I mean, we would be happy to consider this type of acquisitions. Now, I mean, you mentioned, would you consider a larger size acquisitions? The answer is, at this point, I mean, we don't have any file on our table, but I mean, we are pragmatic, we are open. If one day, I mean, we see a file that would represent a level of investment that would be above, I mean, this level of bolt-on acquisitions.
Of course, we'll consider the merit of this type of potential acquisitions. At this point, I mean, there is nothing on the table that deserve any comments. At this point, it's more about, yes, I mean, we are tracking the market. We are tracking various bolt-on targets and we'll see, I mean, how we progress on this matter in the next few quarters. Once again, without any rush and making sure that the criteria that I mentioned about potential for growth, about, I mean, i.e., I mean, quality of the assets, about meeting our criteria in terms of strengthening our technologies or strengthening our geographical scope, and also with the valuations that is in line with our standards.
I mean, having all of that in mind, I mean, serving as key criteria for us to decide to move on potential bolt-on acquisition.
Thank you, Pascal.
Thank you, Jeremy.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Sanson of Exane. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone. It's Tristan from Exane. Many thanks for taking my question. I'll be quick. I'm sure you're probably overrunning a bit, so thanks for taking my question again.
Mm-hmm.
There are gonna be two. The first one, and it's clarification on orders and on cash. On orders, you mentioned several times that you're expecting large order in Q4. From what I understand, you're assuming that the Greek Rafale order will be placed before the end of the year. You're more cautious on Telesat. Can you remind us of what are the other larger order in the pipeline, that have been announced and that can be closed before the end of the year? And whether you deem them likely or not likely? I'm especially thinking about the Greek frigates that we have not discussed so far in the call.
Mm-hmm.
The second question is a bit related, is on the free cash flow trajectory for this year. If I look at what could be your free cash flow ambition post these orders, including the Greek Rafale, and after the consolidation transport, I estimate you probably on a trajectory for going toward something like EUR 1.3 billion for this year, maybe a bit more if we're more ambitious on the orders. Can you update us on this and tell us whether it's roughly fair estimate or not? I'll stop here.
Okay. Good morning, Tristan. I mean, your questions probably deserve a bit of clarity because there might be a bit of misunderstanding. I mean, first, in terms of Rafale orders, I mean, the Greek order was booked in H1. I guess when you talk about Greek Rafale, you are probably talking about the additional six aircraft that Greece mentioned a few weeks ago. We expect, I mean, those additional six aircraft to be booked in 2022 and not in 2021. However, I mean, as I mentioned, what we expect in Q4 2021 is booking the Rafale in Egypt.
Oh, yes. Sorry, Egypt, yes.
Yes, Egypt, which represent 30 Rafale, which is quite a sizable contract for us with the associated level of down payment that I guess would mention a level of down payment that for Thales should represent probably something around EUR 150 million. That's I mean a good proxy of the type of down payment we could get on such a large project. Now, of course, I mean, yes, you are absolutely right in saying that the Q4 orders will be strong, as by the way, as always. So, we're expecting large orders in many places.
I don't want to be more specific in addition to what I've mentioned on Rafale. I mean, about the frigate in Greece, which is a first, I mean, a project for Naval Group, but which could represent also a sizable amount for Thales as we will supplying our equipment and systems on those three frigates. I don't know, I mean, at this point, probably a bit too early to say whether or not we should, I mean, book this contract in 2021 or 2022.
Which by the way, is probably a good illustration of, I mean, a bit of potential uncertainty in terms of level of order intake, as, I mean, it can be either Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. Now in terms of overall free cash flow, I mean, as I mentioned, I mean, the last time that we discussed, overall quite positive. I mean, probably have in mind what we shared with you, beginning of 2021 and the fact that we have upgraded our figures six months later as we released our H1 level of free cash flow.
Originally, I mean, our guidance was more about EUR 1 billion of free cash for 2021, taking into account overall a 95% underlying conversion ratio from net income to free cash, plus a negative reversal of down payments of around EUR 200 million. A few months later, as we said, I mean, we should do better on this front. Overall, I mean, a guidance that was more between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion. This is a guidance that we shared with you in July based on H1 figure.
This level doesn't take into account, I mean, the positive impacts of the down payment that we could get from Egypt. Overall, I mean, if you take between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.2 billion, plus EUR 150 million, you could end up with a level of cash that could be around EUR 1.3 billion for the full year 2021. Which will be quite a strong level of performance and we are extremely happy with that. Today we keep seeing quite a strong performance overall in terms of cash flow.
We don't communicate our cash flow on a quarterly basis, but I'm quite happy with our continuous high level of performance and free cash flow overall at Thales reflecting, I mean, our focus on this front, but also overall, I mean, a level of order intake which is overall rather good and which of course has a positive impact in terms of payments.
Just to be clear, Pascal, this includes the contribution of transportation?
Yes.
Do you see it?
Yes.
Below free cash flow has been discontinued?
No, no. I mean, it includes everything. My view is that I mean, we'll communicate on our annual figures on the net adjusted income that of course will take into account the contribution of our transport business, which will be summarized on a single line of our P&L. Our net income will take into account the positive contribution of our transport business, and the same on our free cash flow. I mean, when you will assess the overall conversions ratio from net income to free cash flow, it will be based on all our business, including transport.
Now, of course, we will be able to give you a good idea of the contribution of transport, and I don't expect, I mean, the disposal of transport business to materially change the overall conversion ratio of Thales as a group overall.
That's very clear. Many thanks for all these details.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time.
Good. Thank you very much. I mean, a number of questions, so very happy with this interaction with you all. Let me conclude very briefly. Overall, I mean, as you have understood, the overall commercial momentum is stronger across many of our businesses and the recovery starting in civil aero and biometrics. Of course, I mean, together with Patrice Caine, I will participate in several conferences and investor events in the coming weeks. Of course, in the meantime, I mean, Bertrand and the IR team, Olivier, is at your disposal if you have any further questions. Thank you very much. Have a good day and bye-bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. If you didn't have a chance to ask your question on today's call, please do not hesitate to send it to Thales Group Investor Relations at ir@thales.com, and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Once again, thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.