Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's Thales H1 2025 results conference call. The presentation will be held by Patrice Caine, Thales Chairman and CEO, and Pascal Bouchiat, Thales CFO. It will be followed by a question-and-answer session, at which time, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Miss Alexandra Boucheron, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.
Good morning. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Thales H1 2025 results. I am Alexandra Boucheron, Thales Head of Investor Relations. With me today are Patrice Caine, Chairman and CEO, and Pascal Bouchiat, CFO. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. As usual, this presentation is audio-webcasted live on our website at thalesgroup.com, where the slides and press releases are also available for download. Finally, a replay will be available soon after the end of the event. With that, I would like to turn over the call to Patrice Caine.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thales 2025 healthcare results. Starting with a few highlights of the group's performance so far this year. To start, Thales has achieved a high single-digit sales growth in the first half of the year, mainly driven by Avionics and defense. Indeed, focusing on defense, the supportive context has offered Thales increasing opportunities globally, with a new order of 26 Rafale fighter jets for the Indian Navy, which was booked in Q2 2025, or with a GBP 1.16 billion contract with the U.K. Ministry of Defence for the supply of 5,000 LMM missiles booked in July 2025. Growing opportunities that we start to see with the ReArm Europe plan to enhance defense capabilities in Europe. France is planning to exceed the military programming law by progressively increasing total defense spending from EUR 50 billion in 2025 to EUR 64 billion in 2027.
This amount of EUR 64 billion was initially supposed to be reached in 2029, meaning that we expect a real acceleration in France as well. This context, along with a constant focus on operational efficiency, has led to a strong increase in our adjusted EBIT margin, which I will detail in the next slide. Now moving to our H1 2025 financial performance on slide number three. Commercial momentum was solid for order intake over the semester, with EUR 10.4 billion worth of orders. This reflects the high level of demand for Thales products and solutions in most of our businesses. The book-to-bill ratio stands once again above one in H1 2025. Sales progression was robust in this first half of the year, up 8.1% in total and organic changes to EUR 10.3 billion. Adjusted EBIT reached EUR 1.2 billion, recording a solid 12.7% organic growth.
Margin was up sharply and stood at 12.2%. Adjusted net income reached EUR 877 million in H1 2025, or EUR 937 million if we exclude the temporary additional corporate tax paid this semester in France. This compares to EUR 866 million last year. In terms of cash generation, H1 2025 was particularly strong, with a free operational cash flow of EUR 499 million. Lastly, net debt position at end of June 2025 increased by EUR 383 million compared to December 2024, to EUR 3.4 billion as a result of the usual seasonal effects, including dividend payments. If we compare to the end of June 2024, the net debt has been reduced by more than EUR 1 billion. I now hand over to Pascal, who will review our financial performance in greater detail.
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning, everyone. I'm on slide four, starting with order intake. As Patrice mentioned, momentum was solid in H1 2025. For order intake, which stood at EUR 10.4 billion. One last contract was signed this semester with a unit value above EUR 1 billion, namely the order of 26 Rafale by the Indian Navy. This compares to three contracts in H1 2024 with unit value above EUR 500 million, leading to a very high comparison basis. Taking a step back and comparing this first half to H1 2023 order intake, we observe a robust increase of 21% in H1 2025 order intake, underscoring the group's solid growth trajectory. Ten large orders were booked in H1 2025. Six in defense, in all domains, illustrating the continued strong momentum and the relevance of our portfolio of products.
Four in aerospace, of which three in space, and one in Avionics, all booked in Q1 2025. Importantly, orders below EUR 10 million showed robust progress of 5%. Now moving on to sales on slide five. First. A word on scope and current impact. H1 2025 saw a positive scope impact of EUR 87 million. Mostly concentrated in Q1 and mainly resulting from the Cobham Aerospace Communications acquisition. Cobham is integrated in the organic figures since April 2025. Yes, April 2025. Current impact was negative at EUR 73 million. Due to the strengthening of euro against US dollars and Australian dollars. Excluding those impacts, sales were up 8.1% on an organic basis in H1 2025. This solid performance clearly demonstrates Thales' continued strong growth momentum. This growth notably reflects the good momentum in aerospace, mostly driven by Avionics. In addition.
Defense delivers again double-digit growth in the supporting contexts Patrice already mentioned. Cyber and Digital was slightly down in H1. A progressive ramp-up is expected in H2, and I will come back to this in a minute. Finally, sales organic growth was well-balanced between mature and emerging markets. Europe posted a solid 8.9% growth in H1 2025, while emerging markets delivered double-digit growth. Turning now to slide six and having a look at the drivers of adjusted EBIT year-on-year increase. Looking first at the mechanical impact, scope effect was positive and amounted to EUR 23 million, primarily linked to Cobham Aerospace Communications acquisition. Current impact was negative at -EUR 9 million, while pension cost impact was marginal. As you can see, the strong progression of our gross margin was the most significant driver of adjusted EBIT growth. It was up EUR 160 million.
Driven notably by the sales volume increase and defense. While costs linked to market and sales are stable year-on-year, R&D expenses were up in H1 2025. And stood slightly above 6% of sales, reflecting sustained R&D investment. G&A expenses were contained as well, growing organically at less than half the pace of revenue. Restructuring costs were higher in H1 2025 versus H1 2024. Mostly driven by the costs linked to the adaptation plan in space. Finally, contributions from equity affiliates increased by EUR 28 million. Most of our G&A progressing well, with also a few positive one-offs. On the other side, contribution from Naval Group was hampered by the temporary additional corporate tax in France. Moving now to performance by segment and starting with aerospace. I'm now on slide seven. Orders in the segment came at EUR 2.7 billion, broadly stable year-on-year.
Avionics enjoyed a solid underlying demand across most segments, and notably in the military domain. Order intake in space was slightly down, although three large orders were signed in H1 2025, of which two in telco for Norway and Japan, and one in exploration. Sales amounted to EUR 2.8 billion, leading to an organic growth of 5.8% year-on-year. This reflects, on the one hand, sustained growth in Avionics, with a strong presence notably in aftermarket, supported by robust air traffic momentum and in military activities. On the other hand, space sales are still impacted by the low demand experience of the last two years in the telco business. Now commenting adjusted EBIT with a sharp increase of 2.7 percentage points in margin, which stood at 9.1% in H1 2025.
This strong progression was driven by the solid double-digit margin in Avionics and also an improvement in space margin, and tried to deliver a positive adjusted EBIT before restructuring costs in full year 2025. Moving on now to defense on slide eight. In defense, order intake amounted to EUR 5.8 billion in H1 2025, reflecting strong and continued commercial momentum, although year-on-year comparison is impacted by a quite tough comparison basis. Six large contracts were booked in H1 versus nine in H1 2024, which also saw the booking of three contracts with unit value above EUR 500 million. It's worth noting that small orders were particularly supported this semester. The good news is that additional large contracts are expected to be booked in H2, notably in air defense, with contracts with the U.K. and German governments. As a reminder, book-to-bill ratio is expected above one this year in defense.
Sales amounted to EUR 5.6 billion, recording a sharp organic growth of 12.7%, ahead of full-year expectations. This was driven by continued double-digit growth in Q2 after a very strong Q1, with solid momentum in most of the activities. The performance also benefited from continuous production ramp-up. Margin was broadly stable around 13% as expected, in line with annual expectations. Moving now to Cyber and Digital on slide nine. At EUR 1.9 billion, sales of the overall Cyber and Digital segments were down -1.9% organically. Commenting Cyber first, where sales were down organically in H1 2025. Cyber product growth, which represents more than 80% of total Cyber business, was hampered by the short-term disturbances linked to the merger of Thales and Imperva Salesforce. This merger has been completed at the end of Q2 as expected.
During this process, marking the final step of the integration of Imperva, 70% of sales swaps were allocated either a new customer portfolio or a new product portfolio to sell. We now expect a progressive ramp-up in H2 for this activity. In Cyber services, low market dynamic held back growth in H1. As you know, our priority for this activity is an executive strategy of premium mutations to refocus on segments offering more profitable growth. While this process implies rationalizing and standardizing some operations, it can temporarily act as a drag on growth. Moving to digital identity, we face that recorded growth in Q2 after a slow Q1. Over the whole semester, organic growth is slightly down. H1 2025 was slow in identity and biometrics, as the activities were normalizing to a more usual run rate after the COVID catch-up effect that occurred until 2024 in the travel document activities.
In secure connectivity solutions and payment services, the performance of digital solutions was very solid, while digital banking solutions were indeed vigorous in H1 2025. Digital solutions in secure connectivity also drove solid profitable growth. The overall adjusted EBIT margin of the segments has been holding well this semester, protected by continued disciplined pricing policy. While overall margin was stable in Cyber, it is worth noting that the premiumization strategy is starting to bear fruit in Cyber services with an increase in margin year-on-year. Margin was slightly down, however, in Cyber products due to temporary low top-line evolutions. Margin was also slightly up in digital identity, but also benefiting from a few positive one-offs. Now, looking at the H1 2025 adjusted P&L, I am now on slide 10. The cost of financial debts and all the financial returns was up compared to last year.
The comparison is impacted by the non-recurrence of positive one-offs we called last year, mainly dividend payments from non-consolidated affiliates and also a foreign exchange gain. The final cost on pensions and other employee benefits were broadly stable. Looking at taxes, you can see the effective tax rate was significantly higher this semester and stood at 26.7%. This is due to this temporary additional corporate tax in France, front-loaded in H1 2025 at EUR 60 million. Out of the total EUR 80 million impact expected this year, EUR 60 million have been recorded in H1. Excluding this impact, the effective tax rate was broadly stable at 21%. Minorities are down year-on-year, mainly linked to the reduced net loss incurred by Thales in airspace. Overall, adjusted net income per share stood at EUR 877 million in H1 2025, or EUR 937 million excluding the tax one-off.
This compares to EUR 866 million last year, so leading to an 8% growth. Moving now on slide 11 to free operating cash flow. The free operating cash flow was particularly strong in H1 2025 and stood at EUR 499 million versus minus EUR 85 million last year. This excellent performance was driven mainly by the significant improvement in change in working capital. This reflects the continued satisfactory payments profile from customers, including down payments, as a result from ongoing action plans to optimize stocks after the intricacies of the past years. This H1 2025 performance makes us. Quite confident to achieve our guidance of 95%-100% adjusted net income to free operating cash flow conversion ratio for 2025. Concluding the financial performance, moving on slide 12 with a review at the net debt evolution.
We see net debt amounting to EUR 3.4 billion at June 2025 versus EUR 3 billion at the end of December 2024. The main drivers of this seasonal increase are the payments of our dividends, resulting in a cash out of EUR 586 million, annually for an amount of EUR 118 million. The disposal impact stood at minus EUR 64 million. This is due to the final price adjustments related to the sale of Hitachi Rail as a transport activity. These impacts were, however, partly compensated by the strong free operating cash flow I have just discussed. Thank you for your attention. I now turn over the call to Patrice to review our strategic priorities and guidance.
Thank you, Pascal. Now turning to our strategy and outlook. I am on slide 14. Here are the four strategic priorities for 2025 we shared with you during our 2024 full-year results.
As you will see, we have made significant progress following these priorities in the first half of the year. First, ramping up our capacity, which includes production capacities, but also ensuring we have the right talent to seize market opportunities. Second, restoring space profitability, a key priority for the group this year. Third, maintaining our innovation and R&D leadership to increase differentiation. Last, fourth, delivering strong value creation from our recent acquisitions, namely Imperva and Cobham, which have both undergone successful integrations. Moving to slide 15, and first, the capacity ramp-up. Due to the current supportive context and Thales' strong position and value offering, many of our products are in high demand. To respond to this trend and serve our customers, we have continued our internal and external efforts to accelerate production. Internally, by investing in some of our production sites and recruiting the right talents.
Externally, by supporting our supply chain and mitigating potential bottlenecks. Just to give you a few examples of these capacity extensions, Thales launched an unprecedented investment plan of around EUR 350 million for its Cholet site in France, which employs 2,600 people, hosts R&D, production, and service activities in radio communications, Cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and satellite communications. This project includes, among other developments, new industrial lines for equipment and systems to provide significant increases in production rates expected in the current context. Another capacity expansion has been implemented all around Europe, namely in Angulo, the Netherlands, and Gdańsk in Poland. As I just mentioned, ramping up our capacity also means ensuring we have the right talent in place to seize market opportunities. We have continued making Thales a very attractive employer brand, and our strong brand awareness has once again been recognized.
The Universal Research Institute ranks Thales as the number one most attractive employer among engineering students in France in 2025. If I move to space now. As you all know, we have been implementing since March 2024 the transformation plan of Thales Alenia Space Telecom's business line in order to, number one, optimize its structure, number two, maintain its leadership position, number three, restore its profitability. This plan mainly consists in the redeployment of 1,300 positions across the group, with no forced departure as of H1 2025. We have 75% of positions already redeployed. Moreover, Thales has had a certain number of recent commercial wins.
Just to name a few, contracts to build telecom satellites in Norway and in Japan, a contract with Hispasat to start the development of the world's first quantum key distribution system capacity from geostationary orbit, and a contract with the European Space Agency to develop the space segments of the navigation system orbiting around the moon. These promising business and business growth opportunities show our transformation plan is going in the right direction. Hence, we are confident in Thales Alenia Space's perspectives for profitability recovery. Third priority regarding our innovation leadership. Maintaining strong R&D capabilities is indeed key to bringing pioneering and differentiating products to our customers. In the end, this is why our customers prefer us versus the competition. A few illustrations of what we have done so far this year in this area: expanding our Cortex AI accelerator worldwide with new AI industrialization capabilities in the U.K.
and Singapore, targeting 800 AI experts and around 100 PhD students globally at the end of 2025. For those of you who visited Thales' stand at Paris Air Show, I imagine you have seen the number of products, over 100 with Thales AI inside. Another example is our future potential partnership with Radiall and FoxConn to create an industrial capacity to develop what we call system-in-package SIP technologies in France. For the more curious among you, this technology enables the integration of multiple electronic components into a single compact module, thanks to an increase in the density of electronic components while reducing their size. In one word, we are developing the electronic technology and components of tomorrow. It's a definite step towards more strategic autonomy. This partnership with FoxConn and Radiall will indeed meet the growing needs of the aerospace, automotive, telecom, and defense sectors. Fourth priority.
Thales is, of course, strongly committed to delivering strong value creation from recent acquisitions. Imperva and Cobham outcomes are already providing strong operational performance and synergies across the group. For example, Thales has launched a new solution combining Thales and Imperva's best technologies named File Activity Monitoring, or FAM. You all have in your companies unstructured data across servers, cloud services, and file shares, that is to say everywhere. It would take an endless time to look at each file, define the level of classification, and secure it. Thanks to AI capability, FAM, File Activity Monitoring, is doing everything for you automatically. This is just one example of the new state-of-the-art solutions that we are launching.
Moreover, the activities stemming from the acquisition of Cobham and Outcomes are showing very strong performance thanks to the development of synergetic products such as the safety satellite communication system Thales will provide to equip the A400M military transport aircraft. Moving to the last slide. All these priorities will bring Thales to continue pursuing ambitious financial targets for 2025. A book-to-bill ratio above one, organic growth of 6%-7%, or EUR 18.8 billion-EUR 22 billion in sales, and a 12.2%-12.4% adjusted EBIT margin. Many thanks again for your attention, and we will now be pleased to take your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
Our first question today is from the line of Benjamin Healen, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. First question, Patrice or Pascal, was on Cyber. Obviously, a very strong decline in Q2, which on the face of it, I think, is kind of marginally worse than certainly what I was expecting. You have highlighted again sales integration. Can you just talk a little bit about what is actually going on? Why is the integration of Imperva's sales team being so disruptive to the business? You have some comments in the presentation about expecting a progressive ramp-up in the second half of the year. Can you just talk a little bit about what we should read into that? Is that sequential improvement versus Q2? Should we see a return to year-on-year organic growth in that business?
Any color around that would be super helpful. Second question on space. Can we get an update on the discussions between yourselves, Airbus, and Leonardo? Any timelines that you can provide there would be helpful. Finally, on Avionics, can you break down a little bit what you're seeing in terms of aftermarket growth versus original equipment? Any color on the IFE business that you have as well would be super helpful. Thank you both.
Okay. I start on Cyber, perhaps, and space as well. Of course, Pascal will complement. Cyber, we said since the very beginning that this first semester would be not a normal semester, if I may say. Clearly, it's an important and mandatory, by the way, operation to merge the two sales teams. We did so, if you remember well, Ben, between Vormetric and SafeNet, a while ago. SafeNet belonging to Gemalto, Vormetric belonging to Thales.
When we acquired Gemalto, we had this merger within the merger between Vormetric and SafeNet. Honestly, I would like to reassure you, we know how to do it. We knew it would cause some inefficiency. It concerns 1,000 people, so it's a vast sales team. Approximately 70% of these people. Have changed. Either the customers they were supposed to address before or the products they were supposed to push before. Plus the fact that we have aligned incentive scheme, which is also something which is both important and sensitive in this type of business model. It is absolutely, I would say, expected and normal that some inefficiencies occurred in H1. Now, of course, the fact that it was a bit higher than your own expectation, it's pretty difficult to model it very precisely. Now, we need to take a step back, be a little bit patient.
We are, I would say, very confident that it will progressively come back to a fully operational and efficient situation soon. Normally, H2, I'm sure we'll have questions in Q3, but H2, end of H2, end of this year, we'll be able to measure, to monitor this return to full efficiency in this domain. The quality of the asset and the quality of Imperva is a high-quality company. The products are of high quality. That should, I would say, help us to keep a cool head looking at just Q1 or Q2 figures in this domain, though they may seem a bit disappointing. Now, space. Not much to say, if I may say. Discussions are ongoing. As I've said already in the past, we will, I would say, say something if and when we have something to say. Work in progress.
Not sure it will get to something which would be positive or something which will be announced to the three of us. Too soon to say, but working on it. More color on Avionics, Pascal?
Yes. Good morning, Ben. Avionics, so overall, I mean, very happy with the level of performance, particularly in terms of goals in H1. In terms of, I mean, the key subsegments where we enjoy most of the goals in H1, one is aftermarket, which has been pretty strong in H1. Good level of demand continuing throughout H1. First point. Second. Also, I mean, Cobham and Imperva. In terms of level of goals. You mentioned about OEM. It's in particular at Cobham and Imperva where we enjoyed the largest level of goals. For the rest of OEM, it follows, I mean, in particular, the production output for our key customers. I already mentioned particular IFE.
IFE overall. No concern at all in terms of goals, underlying goals at this point. The concern is more about our clients being able to get their aircraft or their seats so that we can deliver our own products. That's a point that we mentioned in Q4 last year. It's true that things seem to be a bit better, but we are still not there. This is today, I mean, some kind of limiting factor overall in terms of goals for IFE. Now, in terms of underlying level of demand. I mean, IFE is back to what it should be in terms of level of demand.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Patrice, Pascal. I have a few questions, if I may.
Starting first with Cyber and Digital, could you just give us a sense of how significant, in terms of revenue, is the banking solution business that you mentioned in the presentation? And you also mentioned there positive one-offs. What were they, and of what scale were they, please? Secondly, on Imperva, to continue on Ben's question, have you seen some leakage on R&D and key people leaving, or on the contrary, has it been quite satisfactory on that front? Third, on ExoMars, if the U.S. gets out of ExoMars, what are the consequences for Thales, please?
Okay. Good morning, Olivier. We will start maybe on Cyber. In terms of digital, I mean, at this point, in terms of size of business, it's quite a difference between the level of transitioning on the mobile communication system from the classic eSIM to the embedded SIM.
I mean, we already commented on these transitions, which is growing pretty nicely. Very soon, we will have most of our mobile communications systems driven by the digital, i.e., the embedded SIM business. On banking, that was your question. Of course, I mean, the move will take much longer, which means that even though the growth of our digital banking solutions is pretty strong, and it's really a double-digit type of growth, the underlying level at this point is still a small-sized business. We are talking about a business which overall represents something like EUR 55 million of annual revenue, but growing fastly and paving the way for these progressive transitions for the banking business. Once again, that will take time. Yes, I mentioned several one-offs, mainly two one-offs, on Cyber and Digital in H1.
One was a pretty strong level of demand on SIM in a particular specific telco operator in Asia. That's the first point. The second is more on JD with Telit, which in 2024 was pretty low in terms of contributions, having a specific one-off positive that came in H1 2024. Overall, I mean, the impact in terms of margin for the Cyber and Digital business is not that large, but I mentioned this point. Imperva, Patrice?
Imperva, of course, we monitor, I would say, attrition at Imperva, or globally speaking, at our CSP business. Honestly, we have not observed anything that would be, I would say, worrying or above benchmark. In fact, it's below benchmark, even in the U.S. You know that in the U.S., also, some big digital or big tech companies have, I would say, either stopped hiring or laid off people.
The tension on the market is, I would say, probably less stringent than it was before. So nothing to be worried about on this. Of course, good and important question, Olivier, about key people, not only in R&D, but also in the sales team. We have also some key people in the sales area that are important for the business. Moving to space. In fact, more than ExoMars, we were, I would say, looking very precisely at the discussions and developments around Artemis, because you know we have a big stake in this Back to the Moon initiative. We have been reassured by the recent, I would say, vote of the Big Beautiful Bill in the U.S., which has, in particular, confirmed the right level of credit of funding allocated to NASA on this particular project. I would say, so far, we are reassured. There is no particular concern.
Now, let's also acknowledge that the situation in the U.S. is always difficult to predict. As we speak, no concern, but let's keep, I would say, let's keep cautious.
Exactly. Yes.
Thank you, Olivier.
Thank you very much, both of you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ross Law, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning, everyone. Thanks very much for taking my questions. The first is just, again, on Cyber. Can you maybe be a bit more specific on your second-half expectations? Should we be expecting year-over-year growth? Secondly, on space. You've called out the margin as being significantly improved. Can you maybe quantify that margin for the first half and also what you're expecting for the full year? And then thirdly and lastly, you call out investing in expanding industrial capacities.
Are you doing this on the assumption that defense spending in France goes above the current LPM trajectory, or are you continuing to assume for the time being that the LPM is maintained in its current form? Thanks.
Okay. Good morning, Ross. Maybe I will start with the first one, Patrice, on Cyber and sales. Yes, Ross, we expect Cyber to get back to positive growth in H2. This one's probably a bit too early to quantify. But yes, we expect, I mean, progressively to get back year on year. In Q3 and Q4 to be positive. This is how we see, I mean, the most likely scenario for this Cyber business. In particular, on the Cyber product subsegment, which is the one where we want to resume growth. Maybe this deserves a bit of additional comment.
As you know, in Cyber business, we've got, which represents the bulk of our business, which is the Cyber product business, overall level of revenue between EUR 1.3 billion-EUR 1.4 billion. This is clearly where we want to resume growth as quickly as possible, and it should be the case as early as Q3. The second subsegment, which is by far the lowest, which is Cyber services. You know, I mean, this business, it's key purpose. It's really, I mean, to drive then sales in our Cyber product business. This is the famous doctor as opposed to the producer of medicines. Cyber services is really designed, is meant to foster the sales of products. This business is a much smaller one. It's EUR 250 million annual sales, which was significantly down, resulting from two factors. One was the softness in terms of demand, in particular in Australia.
The second was really our decision to refocus this business on the most attractive segment, market segment. This is what we keep doing. On this Cyber service subsegment, I mean, the strategy is not that much growth in the short term. It's more, I mean, increasing profitability on the Cyber product business. This is where we should see growth resuming in Q3. Space. Ross asked me to quantify a bit more, I mean, the progressions of EBIT. What I can confirm is what we expect for the full year 2025. You probably have in mind that back in 2024, this space business, overall in terms of level of EBIT, we mentioned it was close to - EUR 70 million of EBIT. We said that in 2025 it should be work event before restructuring charges. This is what we expect.
Overall, I mean, restructuring charge for space in 2025, it should be EUR 20 million-EUR 25 million, which means that excluding those restructuring charge, this business should be work event in 2025. The one weight in H1 2025, overall in terms of level of EBIT, really, I mean, underpins or supports, I mean, this overall level of profitability for the full year.
Okay. If I take the third one and good morning, Roth. Indeed, it's a good question. This, I would say, additional funding that has been announced by the French president is good news, of course, in terms of business momentum, which will come on top of the already growing multi-year programming law. Now, in terms of CapEx, in terms of investment, and in the case of France, because the question is on France, but the reasoning would apply to any other countries of Thales.
Of course, we take a global appraisal. We look at all the markets we serve from France, French market, but also all the export markets, number one. It's mainly based on our, I would say, backlog and some immediate expected contracts, but clearly something which is de facto firm. Hence the fact that Limour, when we have increased the production rate of our radars, times four in a few years, same for our ammunition business in France, times four as well, was really based on, I would say, backlog plus immediate contracts. Coming back to your question related to the recent announcement of the French president, honestly, it's a bit too soon to say that it will trigger additional CapEx. Now, again, if it materializes next year.
Of course, we will always assess continuously our situation and see if it deserves, I would say, additional industrial capacity or what we have already in hand is sufficient to serve this additional requirement or this additional need. To make it short, a bit too soon to say if this will trigger new CapEx. If yes, we will adjust as we did in the past.
Very clear. Thank you both.
Thank you. Next question is from Chloé Lemarié from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Patrice, Pascal and Alexandra. Thank you for taking my question. I'll start with the guidance update. If you could share with us the moving parts from the initial 5%-6% organic growth, I would assume it's fair to expect maybe slower Cyber versus a mid-single digit, but maybe higher defense. If you could just talk around that. The second is actually on restructuring.
Could you just remind us what you expect in total restructuring costs for this year? Last point, just on the Cyber performance, just wanted to see if you had seen any softness in the markets that kind of, let's say, amplified the impact of the sales integration, or if it's simply the effect of the sales integration that's affecting the group at this point. Thank you.
Okay. Good morning, Chloé. I mean, you answered your first question on the moving parts. Yes, the upgrade of the guidance for organic growth of revenue, moving from 5%-6% to 6-7%. The positive is, of course, defense. Overall, it's true that today we see organic growth in defense in terms of revenue for 2025, probably high single digits. This is how we see today, the most likely scenario.
It's also true that on the side, if I take Cyber and Digital, probably a flat to low single digit is probably more what we have in mind considering H1. Overall, and it's true that on this call, we have not discussed a lot about defense growth, but it's good to say that we are quite positive on this business. Overall, and considering the size of our defense business, this allowed us to upgrade our revenue guidance. The second question was about expectations in terms of level of restructuring expenses for 2025. Overall, my view is that it should be probably around EUR 120 million. Our H1 restructuring expenses was EUR 55 million. Let's consider that it should be twice, a bit more than twice this amount for the full year, which, if I remember well, is probably what we expense in 2024.
Still in 2025, still a level of restructuring charges for space that will be still material, I mentioned, EUR 20-25 million. This is what I can share with you in terms of restructuring charges for 2025. Patrice, can you?
Yes. Good morning, Chloé, and thank you for your question. Indeed, it's a question we've asked to ourselves, of course. Now, what I can say, number one, we have, I would say, market figures only for Q1. And these figures, and we need to go into, I would say, quite a detailed analysis because this Cyber market is highly fragmented in terms of threats, therefore in terms of products. It needs a deep dive on what is really, I would say, pertinent for us, namely data security segment, application security segment, or the IAM segment, IoT access management segment.
In these different segments where we operate, in fact, Q1 figures, they do not show any kind of softness. It's reassuring, considering your good question. Now, for Q2, we are consolidating the figures, which is a bit too sad. Therefore, more qualitatively, if I may, it's not based on figures, but more qualitatively, all the feedback that we have from our teams says that the market is there. I mean, nothing has changed in the market. If we take a further step back, if we look at the number of Cyber attacks worldwide, and we do, I would say, publish yearly reports on the Cyber, I would say, the level of Cyber threats worldwide in our domains, it shows that this, I would say, the situation is worse and worse, if I may say, so needing more and more Cyber protection, in particular in our domains.
Nothing to be, I would say, worried about. Again, the first driver is really this reorganization that created these inefficiencies I've already mentioned.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on the French defense budget. As you pointed out in your opening remarks, there is an acceleration in defense spending in France. I was wondering if you have a sense of what could be your capture rate there and how well placed with your products to capture basically the increased spending. The second question is on the free cash flow. I think the improvement was in part driven by working capital. Can you tell us maybe what we should assume for the second half of the year for the working capital? Thank you.
I can start on the first one. Good morning, Alessandro, and thanks for your question. Yes, this announcement is clearly positive for us and for the defense industry as a whole. The figures are not negligible. EUR 3.5 billion in addition in 2026 and EUR 3 billion in addition to what was already expected in 2020 and 2027. Now, it's a bit too soon to say how much will it represent for Thales. The good root of some is the fact that we will have our fair share, if I may say. If we take in average what we ask Thales. Capture globally speaking of the defense budget, there is no reason why it should not be at least the same. It is a bit of a qualitative answer, but for the moment, it is the best I can. Say on top of the fact that it is a positive.
It is a positive, of course. Now, always keep in mind that. We should see it as of next year in terms of order intake, but in terms of sales, it will take a bit more time, of course, as usual. Does it change our sales perspective for 2026, 2027? Probably not, certainly not. It is a nice additional opportunity in terms of order intake, of course, for 2026 and onwards. Free cash flow, Pascal?
Yes. Good morning, Alessandro . And thanks a lot for your questions on cash flow because it seems to be that our strong performance on free cash flow in H1 was not noticed. Not so far.
Not yet. Not yet.
Thank you very much for that. Overall, yes, as you know, I mean, our working capital is seasonal at Thales.
You also in the sector with growth in working capital in H1 and the drop in H2. This is always on why our cash flow generation is much higher on H2 than it is in H1. It is true that the way we started 2025 was very strong and clearly above our own expectations. As I mentioned, it is a price resulting from two factors. One, overall, I mean, pretty strong payments profile from our customers, both on current project execution, but also on done payments. Second was our ongoing actions to optimize our level of stocks. When you put all of that and you project yourself to H2, I am quite positive. I think that in my press I mentioned that we are quite confident to achieve our guidance in terms of free operating cash flow for the full year.
Of course, it will depend upon maybe some last-minute payments or cutoff in terms of payments from Q4 to Q1 2026. Overall, as you understand from my tone, we are quite positive in terms of cash flow generations again in 2025. Confirming, I mean, these pretty strong cash flow generations at Thales. Our ability to convert, I mean, all our net income into free operating cash flow.
Understood. Just a follow-up on the cash flow. In terms of CapEx, what should we assume in terms of year-on-year movement in 2025 versus 2024?
We should see our CapEx moving up in 2025. In 2024, our level of CapEx, I think it was something like EUR 620 million. We should be probably around EUR 700 million in 2025. Showing that we are accelerating. In particular, as we see, I mean, opportunities.
In terms of business, which needs the continuous ramp-up that we have already commented, we keep probably increasing overall our capital expenditure. Now, it does not change our view in terms of overall our ability to convert net income to free operating cash flow, which means that it is my view that we can do both. On one side, I mean, keeping growing our capital expenditure and paving the way for future organic growth expansions, together with maintaining a pretty strong level of conversions ratio, as, by the way, we committed at our capital market day in November last year.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Hervé Drouet from CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. The first one, I am sorry, is back to Cyber.
If we look at the margins and the way the EBIT margin has evolved compared with first half, it has been, in fact, quite stable despite the pressure on sales. I was wondering, I mean, how do you explain that? Is it because you have taken less integration cost in H1 this year versus last year, or is it the product mix which has slightly changed, as you explained, potentially in the Cyber services? I was wondering if you can give us as well maybe a split between what is recurring, maybe coming from a SaaS type of product versus which is more one-off sales you do on the go. That is on the Cyber. The second question is more on the defense side, and especially on the order intake, which has a pickup in Q2 versus Q1, slightly above one. If we look at some countries, especially U.K.
and France, I mean, U.K., I think it is minus 25% versus 2024, and France 10%. I understand, I mean, the budget is gradually increasing. I was wondering what explains maybe this softness for those two countries. I understand you are expecting some pickup in second half, but do you believe we are going to still be negative at the end of the year on those two countries on order intake, or we can go to par versus last year? Thank you.
Okay. Good morning, Hervé. Maybe I will start on commenting a bit more on Cyber in terms of margin. This is probably where I need also to come back on the two subsegments that I have already commented: Cyber product on one side, Cyber services on the other side, because in terms of margin, it is quite different.
Cyber product is where, I mean, we get most of the margin and a pretty strong level of margin for this segment. Here, I mean, our strategy is quite simple. It is resuming growth as quickly as possible while, I mean, preserving the level of margins that are more in the 18 or low 20s at this point, more IT. Level of EBIT margin for this Cyber product business. On the other side, I mean, the small-size Cyber services is today a level in the business where at this point, the level of profitability is not what we expect. At this point, it's slightly negative because negative in 2024, in particular in H1 2024. We managed to improve, I mean, the situation in H1 2025. That's also within the why. I mean, despite, I mean, this lower level of revenue, we managed to maintain quite a good level of margin.
It is in particular because on Cyber services, we tend to focus on margin improvement as opposed to growth. And this is what happened. We are pretty happy with, I mean, the directions in terms of improvement of margin for this Cyber service business, even though we are still not yet where we want to be, but it is pretty positive. Nothing more to report on Cyber in particular, no specific one-off sales or different types of mix. It's more, I mean, those two different businesses, product on one side, services on the other side, and services where today we streamline, we rationalize. We focus on more attractive markets to improve the level of profitability.
On defense, if I follow up on defense, good morning, Hervé . On one hand, you're right. The figures are the figures.
Now, in this long-term business like defense, we are obliged to report on a quarterly basis, but it doesn't make sense. Year after year, we explain why Q1 is up or Q2 is down, but honestly, the right, we say, measurement is at least a yearly measurement. Typically, you said U.K. is down by 25%. Would we have taken or booked the big LMM contract in Q2 instead of a few days after? You would have said exactly the contrary. You see how, I would say, meaningless, if you authorize me to say so, it is to look quarter after quarter at order intake. This is the rule of the game, so we do so, but I do insist that we need to always take a bigger perspective when we look at OI for defense. Should I say the same, by your also for space or even Avionics?
Now, of course, we do confirm the global, I would say, guidance for order intake in 2025. Book-to-bill ratio will be greater than one. Of course, defense will be a key contributor of this strong commercial performance. It's more a qualitative answer I share with you, but clearly, defense will be a key contributor of this commercial performance. We do expect a strong commercial performance again in 2025 after several years or many years in a row with such strong momentum. This is due, again, in defense, to the geopolitical situation. So it's another way to step another step back and to look at the commercial momentum in defense and the one we see, we observe at Thales. I hope it has reassured you and given you enough, I would say, color to be confident that defense is enjoying a strong defense momentum and in particular for Thales.
Thanks. That's very clear. Thank you both.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of David Perry, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. This is Pascal. Hope you're well. I just want to dig into this plan to increase the defense spending from EUR 50 billion to EUR 64 billion in two years that Macron spoke about, I think it was on July the 14th in his speech. It's a huge number. It's had very little media coverage here in the U.K. or impact on the shares. It suggests to me people don't really believe it. Could you just explain to me here in the U.K., what is now the legislative process to make this happen? What are the next steps? What are the obstacles or the things that will make it happen or won't make it happen? If it is passed into law, when is the money actually spent?
Is there a time lag? Thank you.
Hello, David. Thank you for your question. It's a good question as well, of course. I think the answer is quite simple. It just requires a budget law. It will be embedded; it will be part of the budget law that France needs to operate, globally speaking. There will be no dedicated law for defense. There is no intention and no need to change the LPM. LPM. It's just, I would say, it will be just translated in the budget law for 2026. Now, everyone can speculate about whether there will be a law or not, a budget law or not in 2026. Clearly, the most likely scenario is that we will have one next year. It will encompass this increase in terms of defense spending. I do observe as well that it's largely consensual in France, largely.
I'm not saying that it's unanimity, but it's largely consensual, consensual. I'm not sure that, I would say, the debate in the House of Parliament will focus on this particular point. There are many other controversial topics to focus on than this one at the House of Parliament in France.
Thank you. Is there a date, a specific date we should look out for where, say, at least 2026? Because you're talking about kind of 14% a year growth. I think most of us have been assuming 6%-7% growth. I'm just looking at when is this locked down and happens, and does the money get—if it's approved for 2026, is the money spent in 2026?
The orders are passed in 2026. Now, the cash flow, sorry, plan. Are specific contracts per contract. But this is mainly—this is concerning, I would say. Bookings, order intake, contracts.
What you will see normally in 2026 is a EUR 3.5 billion additional contract passed to the defense industry.
Maybe, I mean, if that is a law, the caveat is that, I mean, EUR 3.5 billion is the overall increase in defense spending covering both OpEx and acquisitions.
Absolutely, yes.
At this point, it is still—
we do not have the split.
There is a split between the two. As you know, overall, in most countries, and it is also the case in France, acquisitions tend to represent something like one-third of the global defense spending. You could assume that overall, out of the EUR 3.5 billion, let us consider that in terms of acquisitions, I mean, the additional goals on top of the existing LPM should be probably EUR 1 billion, at least if we follow this one-third type of ratio. At this point, it has not been disclosed.
We need to be a bit more patient.
There is no intention, or no one has said anytime that typically the number of military people will be higher next year. There is no reason why the salary would go through the roof next year. In terms of OpEx, there will be a portion for OpEx, but there will be no—CapEx would be the first, I would say, beneficiary of this increase.
Okay. All right. I will keep an eye on the news flow. Thanks for the comment.
Thank you. Due to timing constraints, we will take a final question. This is from Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I had three. The first one is on strategy and outlook. You mentioned some of the joint ventures with Foxconn. You had one with Kongsberg.
Can you give more details as well? There is a broader question around joint ventures. I mean, we have seen some of your peers rushing, so to say, to do joint ventures to gain access to technology. Do you have the same approach, or do you have all the technologies in your portfolio to address future demand? That was question number one. Question number two is to get back on free cash flow. In H1, I think, Pascal, you mentioned it is linked to inventory optimization. Am I right to think that it is structural? It is not just the prepayment of the Indian Rafale that is making that good performance. The last question is on the 2028 guidance for defense. I mean, you said on the call we should be organic sales growth around, I mean, I understood 8.9% this year. We were at 13.3% last year.
The 6.7% that you described between 2024 and 2028, is it something that is probably a need, I mean, maybe updated or maybe revised as time goes by? Thank you very much.
Can I start with the joint venture strategy? What we contemplate— Bonjour, Christophe. Sorry, I should have said so first. The joint venture that we contemplate to create with FoxConn, Rediall, and maybe other partners, by the way, first, it's not done. It was taken as an illustration of how we do prepare the future. So take it as an example of, I would say, how do we care not only about short-term but also about mid- to long-term, I would say, future of the group. This is, I would say, super exciting, a bit technical, so I've tried to simplify it during my speech, but this is very promising.
However, it has no impact on the short run in terms of financial or economics. Moving to Kongsberg, what we decide to do with Kongsberg is, in fact, to merge our own forces. In Norway, and we have had for decades a nice defense budget, which is very strong typically on crypto. In Norway, with Kongsberg business in terms of software defense radio. By the way, in many cases, crypto and radio, it's, I would say, intertwined quite, I would say, significantly. So in terms of economics, it's a couple of hundreds of people and in the range of EUR 100 million-EUR 150 million to give you an order of magnitude of what it represents. So it's a nice joint venture. It's not a big one, but it's a nice one.
And it is a nice way to, I would say, grab a bit more of the Norwegian market share, leveraging Kongsberg, I would say, presence, which is honestly stronger than ours. Ours is significant, but clearly, Kongsberg is one, if not the Norwegian defense champion over there. It is a smart move. The last aspect of your question was about technology. The fact that you have observed several joint ventures created by other companies aiming at sharing or addressing technologies. It's true that it's less our case. As you said, by the way, I do think that, although we are not perfect, but we have already a very, very wide and strong technology or technical portfolio.
Where we do need some joint venture, it's more to address the market, more a go-to-market, I would say, approach than sharing genuine technologies or co-developing things unless the customer asks us to do so, which is another aspect. But yes, we do not feel, I would say, a strong need to partner to get access to technologies in different countries. Thank you. Pascal?
Yes. So. Yes, Christophe. Bonjour. So. Peak performance in H1, like commented, which was pretty strong and, as you have seen, significantly above H1 2024. I mentioned that the profile for stocks was part of the explanation. We need to understand that we are working pretty hard, I mean, to optimize overall the level of stocks at Thales. We believe that there is opportunity in this matter. What you have seen in H1 is a first step of overall better management of stocks. Behind that.
Hard work on. Things like a more effective sales and operation planning, but also, I mean, being the outcome of progressive improvements overall on supply chain. By the way, it was quite interesting in this call that we did not get any questions on supply chain. I mean, just a year ago, there were many questions on this matter. It is true that we see the situation overall in supply chain improving, even though we are still not there yet, and there are still some roadblocks, but overall situation is progressively improving on this matter, which also allows us opportunity probably to optimize our overall level of stocks. All of that, overall, in an overall trajectory where we discuss about the need for us to invest more in terms of CapEx while preserving a pretty strong level of conversions ratio.
Taking into account this global picture, opportunity to optimize stocks, a better supply chain situation, the need to keep ramping up overall our production capabilities. All of that is basically what we do to keep reassuring you on our ability to keep delivering a strong level of cash flow. Your second question was more about organic sales, in particular on defense and adjusting, I guess it was probably upwards, our visions on the 6%-7% that we mentioned at the Capital Market Day in November. To that, I would say, Christophe, you need to be a bit patient. By the way, it is very consistent to what we have said in the last six months. We said that all of that will take time.
By the way, we explained that the first step was for the countries in which we operate, in which we sell, those countries, to explain how quickly they will be able to weigh their defense spendings. Hence the comments on the French defense spending. Yes, the need, I mean, to have the statement from Mr. Macron to be translated into the 2026 finance law. All of that resulting in additional order intake that will drive more revenue and more. Editor. Let's take it step by step. You have seen that H1 was pretty strong. This led us to upgrade the overall guidance for the full year, in particular driven by defense. All of that supporting a pretty positive view on the developments of our defense business in the next few years.
Thank you very much, Director.
Thank you. I will now pass back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
No closing remarks. Thank you very much for being with us this morning. We will be pleased with Pascal to continue these discussions during our roadshow coming soon, this week and early September. Thank you very much, and have a nice summer break for those who take vacations. Bye-bye.
Thank you very much. See you. Bye-bye.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you did not have a chance to ask your question on today's call, please do not hesitate to send your question to Thales Group Investor Relations at ir@thalesgroup.com. We will get back to you as soon as possible. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.