Good morning from Paris and welcome to the half-yearly results for . I am Ben Page, the Director General. I'm joined by my colleague, Dan Levy, our CFO. Before we dig into these numbers that you've just seen in the video, I just wanted to comment on public opinion globally because, of course, we are Ipsos, and that's one thing that we look at constantly. I think what's important to remember is just the way in which inflation has for years now been the number one concern of the public globally. When we ask them what their biggest problem is, you can see one in four say it is their key problem, and half are mentioning it as an overall issue, along with their own finances. That's well ahead of any of the geopolitical tensions that bother us in business or the march of technology.
It's very important to remember that because we're still facing consumers all over the world who, despite inflation having fallen, can remember, of course, what prices were just a few years ago. You can see here the overall proportion of people who say that they feel at high risk from inflation. In the last year, we've seen inflation coming down, but the proportion of the public who are thinking about it as a key problem hasn't really changed at all, 32% to 31%. That's really important, I think, to remember when you're thinking about the general challenges facing many sectors of the economy who depend on consumer spending. Geopolitics is always with us.
Last time we spoke, when I was presenting the Q1 results, we remarked on the fact that for the first time ever in our tracking of different countries' reputations, we had more people saying that China was a force for good in the world than the United States. This month, you can see the proportion of people who say that they're avoiding American products is 7 in 10 in Canada, 6 in 10 in China. I'm not saying that what they do is always what they say, and a major part of our work is understanding the difference between what people say and what they do. The fact that you've got so many people, 4 out of 10 people globally, saying that they're trying to avoid buying American products is just an indication of the upheaval that we face at this point of change in our geopolitical system.
With all of that, what's happening at Ipsos? I'm pleased to report our total growth in the first half of the year is 1.5%. You can see that the profile of this year in terms of growth is much more like our 2023 performance than our 2024 performance. We decelerated during 2024. In 2023, we accelerated, and we can see that same pattern happening this year. In the last quarter, growth of 0.7%, our profitability at 8.3%, which will strengthen during the year, and Dan will explain that in a little bit more detail. Our free cash flow at $54 million, about the average or slightly ahead of the average for the last three years, again reflecting the profile of revenue recognition during the year. Overall, a reasonable return to growth in Q2, and we're expecting it to strengthen during the rest of the year.
I'll now look at a little bit more detail. Here is the United States. You can see -1.7% in the first quarter, +0.5% in the second quarter. We're encouraged by that with our management team now well-embedded, new management team well-embedded in the United States, working very cohesively and effectively together. They are still heavily affected by the activities of Doxa and cuts in federal spending, which is dragging them down. If you look at the other parts of the business in the United States, we have an organic growth of 2% in the first half. We can see that our CPG clients, who use us for a whole range of things around innovation, brand development, brand growth, they have continued to spend money. With a new leadership in our pharmaceuticals business, we can now start to see some real growth in our pharma sector globally.
We're encouraged by what we saw in the last quarter. Lots more to do, but some encouraging signs. We've also completed the acquisition of the BVA family. This gives us a stronger position in France in particular, but also in Italy and the UK. It brings us new expertise that we can now roll out to our whole network. In particular, they are world leaders in pack testing, which we'll talk about in a minute. They also bring us strength in mystery shopping and in work for government and the public sector, particularly in the transport sphere. We will be, because of the strength of those brands, renaming Ipsos in France as Ipsos BVA. Ipsos in Italy will become Ipsos Doxa, and the PRS IN VIVO brand for the pack testing will be rolled out all over the world.
They've got some really innovative research techniques that we can now roll out. They are stronger in luxury, but also in behavioral science. There's a range of things that they bring to Ipsos that, as with previous acquisitions, we will now be able to roll out. If you look at pack testing in particular, which is the PRS IN VIVO business, they are a recognized leader in this space, a huge database of examples to build on and to use and to put into AI to speed up decision-making, really profound expertise in this space, and great relationships and long-term relationships with many of the CPG players and others. We are able to take this to a geographic footprint that, by my estimate, is around 10 times larger, which should really give this team now, combined with our innovation team at Ipsos, some real impact.
I'll hand over now to Dan to talk through some of those details and the phasing in a little bit more detail. Thank you.
Merci Ben, mesdames et messieur s, bonjour. Alors, je propose de commencer par la décomposition de la croissance organique par région. La performance s'améliore au deuxième trimestre dans toutes les régions par rapport au premier trimestre. Dans la zone EMEA, le premier semestre s'établit à 6.3% de croissance portée essentiellement par l'acquisition d'INFAS en Allemagne. La croissance organique s'établit à 0.8% avec 1.8% sur le seul deuxième trimestre. Cela traduit à la fois de bons résultats en Europe continentale, mais également au Moyen-Orient, et en revanche, une activité plus difficile en France qui est fortement pénalisée par la situation politique, notamment sur nos activités de public affairs. Les Amériques affichent une croissance organique de 0.6% au deuxième trimestre, dont 0.5% aux U.S., où, comme l'a dit Ben, les mesures prises par l'équipe de direction aux U.S. commencent à porter leur s fruits. Évidemment, le contexte politique est toujours volatil aux U.S.
Let continue de peser sur nos activités d'affaires publiques, mais la performance des autres activités et des autres service lines est encourageante puisqu'elles sont globalement en croissance de 2% sur le premier semestre de manière organique, portée notamment par les clients de la grande consommation et par l'activité santé qui, comme vous vous en souvenez certainement, avait pesé sur l'activité 2024, mais qui se redresse au premier semestre 2025. Enfin, l'activité en Asie-Pacifique est impactée par l'absence de redémarrage en Chine, qui est toujours pénalisée par les difficultés structurelles auxquelles fait face l'économie chinoise, mais également par un contexte de désinflation qui pèse également sur le chiffre d'affaires. L'Asie est également pénalisée par la baisse de l'activité dans nos affaires publiques après de nombreuses périodes électorales dans un certain nombre de pays en Asie en 2024. La performance s'améliore également au deuxième trimestre dans toutes les audiences.
Nos lignes de service, qui sont dédiées aux consommateur s, aux salariés et aux clients, affichent une croissance organique de 0.8% sur le premier semestre et de 1.6% au deuxième trimestre, malgré un effet de base défavorable avec une forte croissance l'année dernière à la même période. L'activité est en particulier tirée par nos activités de market positioning, de marketing optimization, de campaign impact measurement et des enquêtes de mystery shopping. Notre activité auprès des citoyens est en baisse significative de 11% depuis le début de l'année, compte tenu à la fois de la situation politique aux U.S. et, comme le rappelait Ben Page, de l'impact du DOGE. En France et dans certains pays d'Asie également, le cycle électoral et parfois certaines contraintes budgétaires ont conduit certains clients publics à un certain attentisme dans lEUR prise de décision.
Enfin, l'audience médecins et patients affiche une bonne performance à plus de 5% de croissance par rapport à l'année dernière. L'innovation en matière d'oncologie, de maladies rares, de recherche anti-obésité, notamment sur les molécules GLP-1, devrait soutenir la croissance dans les mois à venir. Nous préférons rester prudents, notamment aux U.S., puisque le contexte politique pourrait impacter à la fois le développement des vaccins, mais également la commercialisation de nouveaux médicaments. Notre plateforme Do It Yourself Ipsos Digital continue d'afficher une excellente performance avec 26% de croissance au premier semestre. Je vous rappelle que le niveau de marge opérationnelle d'Ipsos Digital est de l'ordre de deux fois la moyenne du groupe. Par aillEUR s, nous continuons à enrichir l'offre avec de nouvelles solutions sur Ipsos Digital et nous avons un objectif annuel sur Ipsos Digital de l'ordre de EUR 140 million.
Alors, je propose maintenant de passer, après avoir commenté la top line, de passer aux commentaires sur le P&L. La marge brute s'établit à 68.4% au premier semestre contre 68.5% l'année dernière à la même période. Ce recul s'explique intégralement par l'intégration d'INFAS en Allemagne, dont la marge brute est infériEUR e significativement à la moyenne du groupe. Le plan d'intégration qui va permettre de restaurer la rentabilité est en cours. À périmètre constant, la marge brute progresse de 30 points de base par rapport à l'année dernière, notamment en raison de la forte croissance d'Ipsos Digital. En ce qui concerne les coûts d'exploitation, la masse salariale augmente de 3.1% en raison essentiellement d'un effet périmètre et de l'impact des acquisitions. À scoop constant, la masse salariale n'augmente que de 0.7%.
Nous continuons en effet à adapter notre structure de coûts à l'évolution de l'activité et nos effectifs ont diminué de l'ordre de 2% au 30 juin par rapport au 31 décembre 2024. Et le plein effet de cette diminution des effectifs se produira sur la profitabilité au deuxième semestre. Comme le disait Ben, le deuxième semestre sera en forte augmentation en matière de profitabilité. Les frais généraux augmentent d'un peu plus de EUR 7 million, principalement là encore d'un effet périmètre lié aux acquisitions et en raison des hausses de dépenses informatiques, technologiques et d'acquisition de panels en lien avec notre feuille de route.
Enfin, le poste autres charges et produits opérationnels affiche un solde négatif de EUR 10 million, constitué pour l'essentiel de coûts de départ, mais également d'un impact négatif des charges avec des pertes opérationnelles de change liées à la dépréciation très forte du dollar, notamment au deuxième trimestre 2025. Pour le premier semestre, la marge opérationnelle s'établit à 8.3%. En dessous de la marge opérationnelle, le poste autres charges et produits non courants est impacté par près de EUR 5 million de frais d'acquisition, essentiellement liés à l'acquisition de BVA et d'INFAS, et de EUR 3 million liés à la dépréciation de l'actif net en Russie. Nous analysons actuellement les impacts du vote par le Parlement russe, la Duma, le 15 juillet dernier, d'une loi qui, à partir de 2026, va limiter la part du capital des entreprises de market research en Russie détenues par des intérêts étrangers.
Je rappelle qu'en prévision de cette loi qui est en discussion à la Duma depuis désormais deux ans, nous avons déprécié l'intégralité de l'actif net comptable de la Russie dans le bilan d'Ipsos. Enfin, le résultat net ajusté du groupe s'établit à EUR 72 million contre EUR 82 million l'année dernière. Je pense qu'il est important de rappeler que nous attendons une amélioration significative de la profitabilité au deuxième semestre de cette année, portée à la fois par l'accélération attendue de la croissance au deuxième semestre. Comme le disait Ben tout à l'hEUR e, on va avoir une année dont le profil sera plus proche de l'année 2023 que de l'année 2024, avec une accélération de la croissance en cours d'année et un plein effet de mesures de contrôle des coûts au deuxième semestre qui devrait également porter la profitabilité.
Comme vous le voyez sur ce graphique, on a au premier semestre une profitabilité qui est proche de celle de 2023 et nous maintenons, bien entendu, notre objectif de marge opérationnelle à 13% à périmètre constant. À noter que la marge opérationnelle, comme je le disais tout à l'hEUR e, du premier semestre a été impactée par des effets de change défavorables et notamment la dépréciation du dollar. Si on passe maintenant au tableau de flux, la variation du besoin en fonds de roulement est stable par rapport à l'année dernière, notamment grâce à l'optimisation de nos processus de facturation et de règlement qui ont permis de réduire les délais de paiement et qui compensent un niveau d'encaissement client un peu plus faible, qui est lié notamment à la croissance négative du quatrième trimestre 2024 et du premier trimestre 2025.
Les investissements sont en hausse à EUR 38 million, en ligne avec la mise en œuvre de notre feuille de route de technologie. Au total, le free cash flow s'établit à EUR 40 million. Il serait de EUR 54 million à scope constant, c'est-à-dire hors acquisition. Comme vous le voyez sur le petit tableau qui est en bas du slide, ce EUR 54 million est certes infériEUR à l'année dernière 2024, mais l'année dernière, le premier semestre avait été favorisé en free cash flow par le déport d'une partie du cash lié à la très forte croissance du quatrième trimestre 2023. Comme vous le voyez, le free cash flow du premier semestre 2025 est supériEUR à celui de 2023 et de 2022. Enfin, nous avons dépensé EUR 174 million au total en acquisition, en procédant principalement aux acquisitions de BVA family et d'INFAS. Finalement, la trésorerie à la clôture s'établit à EUR 250 million.
La dette financière nette s'établit à EUR 251 million à la fin du premier semestre, contre EUR 57 million au 31 décembre dernier. Nous avons évidemment une légère hausse du ratio de levier à 0.6 fois l'EBITDA, qui est lié bien sûr à l'acquisition d'INFAS et de BVA. Le groupe affiche par aillEUR s un excellent niveau de liquidité, avec près de EUR 450 million de lignes de crédit à plus d'un an, après avoir renégocié très récemment avec succès une ligne bancaire syndiquée à cinq ans pour EUR 150 million. Par aillEUR s, comme vous le voyez sur le graphique de droite, après l'émission de notre bonde de EUR 400 million en début d'année, Ipsos n'a quasiment plus aucune échéance de dette significative avant 2030. Je vous remercie de votre attention et je repasse la parole à Ben.
Thank you very much, Dan. I thought it would be good just to briefly update you on where we are on technology and AI, because this is obviously now fundamental both to our industry and to Ipsos, and in particular the work that we're doing on synthetic data. Synthetic data, of course, has the potential to dramatically reduce the need for large sample sizes in some cases, or to even remove the need to interview anybody at all. It needs to be done carefully, with caution, with security, which is one of our watchwords. We are using it for areas like data boosting.
If you need more of a certain subgroup of the population who are hard to find, our work is showing that if you have enough examples of that subgroup and enough data, and this is where the size of Ipsos and its history and the waves of surveys we have going back decades, even to the last century in some cases, means that we are very well placed to do that. We can now reliably add in particular groups of the population to a survey and save money and time. We can impute questions. One of the things that we're doing is looking at the ability, if you know people's answers to 20 questions on a particular subject, can you reliably predict their answers to another 10 issues that you haven't actually had to waste time and cost interviewing them about, but you can impute those answers.
In terms of the use of data, and I'll show an example at the moment, AI is allowing us to create synthetic personas, persona bots, based on real data from dozens of surveys so that you could look at different segments of the population, but importantly interact with them. You can have a conversation, and not just the research specialists in a client organization, but anybody inside that client organization can now have a conversation with the AI where it is representing the persona of a particular type of voter, a particular type of consumer, to get deeper insights and ask further questions. Finally, we have full synthetic data. We will be building digital twin panels in large countries where we know exactly from our knowledge panel what the views of large numbers of people in those markets are on key questions.
Now, of course, we can validate the synthetic data digital twin models we will be building. For many issues, you would be able to simply say, rather than asking the actual humans, you can ask the synthetic panel created from those humans' views and tested and validated in a way that was just not possible a few short years ago because of the level of computing that is needed. To give you one example of that, we've rolled out persona bots across our business in virtually every part of it. One example is on a topical subject, GLP-1, so weight loss drugs.
What you can do here, of course, and this is a big gold rush in the pharma sector, is talk in detail to different segments of the population in terms of their usage and attitudes towards GLP-1, dig into those questions, look at how they're reacting to different ideas, different packaging, different treatment options. It gives you a secure environment to do that, but one in which, again, it's democratized. Lots of different people in the marketing function and the client organization can use that data and talk in real time. It really brings to life the existing research that previously was perhaps sitting on a page or on a screen. Now you are talking to these personas almost as though they were real people, but doing so in a reliable way. We're working closely on this with Stanford University. They have a specialist unit focusing on synthetic data.
We are testing out these solutions. We are validating them in a wide range of parts of our business. We have both very accurate data from things like the Knowledge Panel, which Nature magazine, for example, during the pandemic showed was the most accurate panel in the United States. We're now able to, of course, produce those answers and understand where we're going to be able to produce accurate estimates using synthetic data and where there is more risk. We will publish some of our first learnings with Stanford by the end of this year, but a very important development inside the business. Meanwhile, of course, we continue to use AI across our business to speed up. One particular area is the creation of Agentic AI, the Ipsos Insights Agent.
It builds on our platform that we built over two years ago now for safe internal use of AI using a large number of different large language models. What this does now is allow clients, we're working with one of the largest technology companies in the world, one of the largest brewers, to load in their own data and survey data from other sources, put all of that together, sales data, and then interrogate it very rapidly to understand if demand for this goes up, what will happen to consumer reactions if the price was to change, etc., etc. It is really speeding up our ability to clean data, to put it together, and to extract more value from it. It is very exciting to see that. Also, of course, using the algorithms of AI to speed up delivery.
We have taken things that would have taken literally days down to hours and things that took hours down to minutes. One of the tools that we're using for reporting allows you to safely take a data set, so there are no hallucinations because it's rooted in that data set, but very quickly, in any language on Earth, pretty much, interrogate that data, ask it to produce charts, etc. There are massive improvements in speed that we hope to see as we deploy these technologies across the business. Always, of course, mixing human intelligence with artificial intelligence because our work on synthetic data shows that it's very easy to be very wrong. That is something that we, of course, at Ipsos, where we are trusted by our clients, is something that we are absolutely conscious of at all times: safety, security, speed, substance, and simplicity.
In terms of our outlook for the rest of the year, we are in a volatile global environment. You only need to look at the news to know that. Nevertheless, what we can see is that our growth is on track. What we can see at the end of this half is that our growth is on track to be above last year. With the cost control measures that we have in place and with the profile of revenue recognition during the year, we will see our margin being delivered at around 13% at constant scope. That is where we are right now. Very happy to take your questions.
We will see you again in October, and more importantly, on November 19th with our Investor Day, where we will take you through what we have been working on in our Horizons 2030 plan, which covers many of the things that I have briefly touched on today. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you want to ask a question, you can press * and 1 on your telephone. The first question is from Emmanuel Matot of Oddo BHF .
Bonjour, messi s, I hope you can hear me well.
Oui.
Plusieur s questions. D'abord, est-ce qu'on peut avoir une idée de votre carnet de commandes à fin juin? Est-il cohérent avec votre objectif d'une croissance organique supérieure à 1.3% en 2025? Ou ce carnet de commandes doit encore accélérer sur les prochains mois? Deuxième question : comment parvenir à redresser la situation dans la ligne de service public affaires, alors que le contexte budgétaire est très compliqué pour de nombreux gouvernements? Troisième question : est-ce que le seuil de 13% de marge opérationnelle peut être protégé encore pendant plusieurs années sans véritable reprise de l'activité? Vous avez fait du bon travail sur votre marge en 2023 et 2024 déjà, alors que le contexte était plus difficile que prévu. Dernière question : vous avez été actif sur le M&A, mais pas aux U.S. Avec le retour à la croissance aux U.S., comptez-vous réétudier des acquisitions dans cette région? Merci.
Okay. I'm maybe going to take the first question because Ben had to proceed to the translation. He didn't listen to it, I think. On the order book, we don't communicate on the order book, but actually what we can say is that what we have seen in the first half and the results of this first half, plus the order book and what we see in the business, is consistent with our guidance. We don't communicate on numbers, but what I can say is that the order book is consistent with the guidance of an organic growth above last year. Did you get the question on?
Yes, I'm fine.
Okay.
Thank you, Emmanuel. On public affairs, I think obviously there's a unique situation in the U.S. In other countries, it's sometimes due to cyclicality in terms of where the governments are. Overall, I would say we've still got some markets where we have very good growth, but I would say that government remains, I think, a growth area. We've got aging populations. We've got voters on both left and right in politics. There is an expectation for government to do more. That puts continual pressure on them to, of course, deliver, but deliver cost effectively. Interestingly, if you look at, for example, the UK over the period 2010 onwards, we had a new Conservative government. We had austerity. In the end, they needed the data. What you're seeing in our public affairs business in many markets now is not survey research being fundamental, but evaluation.
The profile of the work is changing. We can see if you're looking at the global market. This is, you know, if we build that bridge, if we invest in this social program, what will the ROI be? That's something that we have particular expertise in, as well as obviously our longstanding expertise in social research, population studies, studies of staff working in the public sector, et cetera. For all those reasons, I think we can still see that in the long run, this is a successful area. We are number one globally in terms of our footprint in this space. We still see that there is huge upside. We have a small market share in most markets. If you look at us compared to some of the other major consultancies, we think there is still upside there. On the margin, I mean, Dan will come in from his perspective.
We have reduced our headcount this year so far by 1.8%. We can control those costs because, of course, the vast bulk of our costs are wages. We need to keep driving efficiency, and many of the technologies that we're deploying should enable us to do that. Above all, you know, we can be flexible about how we deploy people. For those reasons, and thank you for recognizing efforts in 2023 and 2024, we believe that we can balance growth and profitability.
Maybe on that, we can add that, as Ben Page said, we are going to present our strategic plan in November. Obviously, the objective is to grow. The strategy is a growth strategy. It is true that maintaining a high margin is easier in a growth trajectory than a low growth trajectory. First of all, the answer is growth. It is true that when you look at different aspects of our business in terms of the P&L, a lot of things are pointing towards an improvement of operating profits in the future. First of all, there is a mix which is coming basically from the progress that we make on our platforms, and particularly Ipsos Digital, which tend to be with higher profitability than the average of the group. We have different service lines which are growing quicker, and we have higher profitability than the group.
On top of that, all the rationalization that we are doing in our operations and all the productivity gains that we are actually seeing for the time being. We are going to be seeing even more in the future thanks to generative AI. I think it's a mixture of all of this. We will give some more indication in November about the margin going forward. At the same time, it is true as well that we will need to invest in the future on our platforms on generative AI, and investment will also have an impact on the margin at some point.
Regarding acquisitions in the US, I think we are always looking at the United States. I think prices remain pretty high, but there are some very interesting things that we're looking at right now there. We will keep you informed as we progress.
Merci beaucoup.
have only one question, but it's to Marie-Line Fort of Bernstein
Yes, good morning. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can. Hello, Marie-Line.
Yes, thank you very much. I've got three questions. The first one, and I'm sorry if I missed the figures, but could you share with us the share of new services in H1, including Ipsos Digital, but in total, the new services? The second question is regarding the outflow for financing acquisition. Just wanting to know if in H1, you factor in all the outflow or if there is a price complement in the second half. The last question, sorry, I forgot. I'll come back just later.
Around 22% in H1, mainly driven by Ipsos Digital and the growth of Ipsos Digital that we detailed before. On the acquisition, we have pretty much paid everything on BVA and INFAS already. There shouldn't be any significant outflows in the future.
FX, because you had exceptional charges in H1 due to the collapse in the dollar, what could be the impact on the second half?
An expert on FX. You know, the best model in terms of forecasting FX is basically the random walk. We basically don't know. It's true that the impact of FX has been particularly tough in H1 and particularly in Q2, because if you remember well, the dollar has been depreciating in Q1 after Trump was elected. When he started to speak about tariffs, suddenly the dollar tended to depreciate. That has obviously a big impact both on our top line, but also in terms of FX on our P&L, both on operational and non-operational items. We will see what happens in H2. I don't know how the dollar is going to be evolving, but it might be indeed that at the end of the year, we might have some impact linked to the depreciation of the dollar.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
An observation from the English conference call is from Louise Wieser of UBS.
Good morning. Two questions for me, please. The first one, with regards to your margin in H1, could you say it has gone down from 10.1% to 8.3%? Could you discuss a bit more the building blocks between the two? The second question, still around margin, this year you will get negatively impacted by the acquisition of INFAS and the BVA family, which is margin dilutive. When do you think you could actually improve the margin of these businesses to a good margin? When do you expect you could get back to that 13%, including the scope effects? Lastly, just on 2026, would you expect, given we will have another six months of the BVA family inclusion in the numbers, would you expect that to also be margin dilutive?
On your first question, I think, as I said before, 2024 is not probably the relevant comparison with 2025 in terms of H1, because the profile of the year is quite different in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, you might remember that we had strong growth at the beginning of the year, which is, by the way, the reason why we had a favorable base effect in 2025, and then a deceleration of growth during the year. 2025 is really more likely to look like 2023, which is low growth at the beginning of the year and acceleration during the course of the year. Obviously, it means that compared to 2024, the profitability is going to be far more skewed towards H2 than H1.
This explains basically the gap between the H1 profitability in 2024 and 2025, on top of the fact that we probably enter the year in 2025 with a bit too much cost. As I said, we have done some cost management measures which are going to bear fruit in H2 and improve the profitability. I think you should be looking at H1 profitability compared to 2023. It was 8.7% in 2023, and we delivered more than 30% in terms of operating profits over the year. I would add on top of that that usually H2 is far more important on profitability than H1. It's usually 30%, 70%, 70% on H2. We are comfortable with the guidance of around 13% of operating profit at constant scope.
In terms of the impact of the acquisitions, the assessment has not changed since Q1, where we said that we expect BVA to be dilutive in 2025 of around 40 basis points and INFAS of around 20 basis points. All in all, with the two acquisitions in 2025, you could expect a dilution of 60 basis points on the operating margin. We expect to restore the profitability of both companies within a timing of, let's say, 18 months to 24 months, which means that there is likely to be an impact again in 2026, but probably far less in 2027.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions. Sorry, there is another question from the English call. It is from Eric Blain of Finance Connect.
Can you hear me?
Yes.
Yes, we can hear you.
Yes, we can hear you.
Go ahead.
listening to you, sir.
Yes, Mr. Blain, your line is open.
you hear me? Ok. I would just like to know more about...
You don't understand.
You may ask your question, sir.
Who asked a question?
Yes, Eric Blain. Can you hear me?
we can hear you. You can ask your question.
Speak in English, please.
Okay, do you hear me? I'm sorry.
The next question is from Anna Patrice of Berenberg. Ms. Patrice, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi. Yes. Hello. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Okay. Perfect. I just wanted to connect with you a bit. Not great on my side, so I missed some of the questions. Apologies for repeating the question. Could you provide, if you can, an outlook for Q3 and also on your order book? There were the questions from Emmanuel Matot, and I haven't heard the answer if it is consistent with your guidance and the components of your organic sales growth. How do you see the acceleration of the growth, Q3, Q4, etc.? Another question is more on the margins. You said that you had too much cost beginning with 2025. I would like to understand a bit more about this. Why was this the case? What are you doing? How do you plan to optimize costs? What are the concrete measures that you're taking? Thank you.
Okay, do you want to take it?
On the outlook, as we've said, we don't publish the order book, but everything that we can see in the order book at the end of Q2 says that we should be growing by more than we did last year, which is what we've provided as guidance. The phasing of that, you can look at the revenue and you can last year and see how the comparisons work. On margin and cost control, what we have been doing and what we did in 2023, actually, when we faced a similar situation, is to put careful control on recruitment. Remember, our staff turnover is very roughly around 20%. If you don't hire replacements, the payroll falls fairly mechanically.
We've also been very mindful that although we are investing in technology and in AI, we are balancing our investment and our Gen X over the year, looking at the profile of the work in order to deliver consistently for shareholders. Our ability to manage those costs, which was proven in 2023 and 2024, is really the type of approach that we're using this year, coupled with, of course, the pattern where the comparisons get much easier in the second part of the year. Dan?
I think yes, I have nothing to add, basically. When I say that the costs were a bit high at the beginning of 2025, it was not as such. It was compared to the activity that we had in Q1. You remember that our organic growth was -1.8% in Q1. We are being sensible about cost and we have adjusted our cost base, being very careful of, you know, hiring people and adding resources in the places where we are growing and being more careful in the places where we are growing less.
No more questions. Okay, thank you.
Thank you very much.