Ladies and gentlemen, good evening. Good morning for those of you that are in different time zones. Yves Chapot and myself are very happy to present our Michelin 2024 Annual Results. Before we enter into more details about the performance in the past year, I just wanted to recap on our Michelin Motion Strategy 2030 because we are really deploying it. If you look at what is on your screen, on the left side is the basis, the foundation of what we are building on: a highly engaged team, a recognized and very powerful brand, a very strong innovation leadership, and unique R&D and industrial capabilities, and excellent market-defining products and services. With this foundation, we can not only excel in tires, but we can also expand the reach of Michelin offerings into services and experiences and in the Polymer Composite Solutions.
So if we come back on tires, we are addressing all mobility usages through better products. One example of that is today, 65% of our passenger car Michelin sales are on 18-inch+ rim diameters. If I now zoom in services and experiences, we are leveraging our customer intimacy for enhanced consumer experience, and we are turning the usage data into unique insights for fleets. And you should know that every day, 1.6 billion kilometers are created with real-life usage data. And if we look at Polymer Composite Solutions, we are leveraging our unique mastery of materials to differentiate on mission-critical applications for growing and diversified B2B markets. The latest example of that is in conveyor belts. We are right now selling our Power Saver line, and that line is saving 40% of energy consumption. These are a few examples of our Michelin Motion Strategy 2030 deployment.
Now, let's go back to 2024. If we were to summarize it, it's in the title. We have been winning where we think it matters. If we look at the different segments, if we look at Segment 1, we have been growing sales in 18-inch+ and in all-season and winter segments. And we have the latest new generation of Alpin 7 that has been launched. And we are continuing developing our share with the CrossClimate range. And we are reinforcing our technological edge, especially on AI and data management. And one example of that is the partnership we have initiated with Brembo, who is a leading force in braking systems for cars. If we look at the Segment 2, our operating margin is still undergoing good development, and it has been improving sharply in 2024.
We are on our journey to meet our target objective by 2026 and, of course, our ambitions for 2030. Our industrial adaptation in terms of footprint is well on track and sometimes in advance. If we zoom in on Segment 3, in mining, we have been gaining volumes in 63-inch, and we are also gaining in most of our core markets, gaining volumes and share in North America, South America, China, Eastern Asia. And in Beyond Road, we are now focusing on the restructuring of our activities into the segments where we really want to be successful. And that's why we have decided to exit the Compact Line bias segment. And you've seen the announcement of the forecasted sale of that activity to an Indian company named CEAT. All of that translates into our 3P metric.
In terms of people, our engagement rate still progresses, and we are now reaching almost 85% engagement rate, which is really in the top league in terms of engagement. In terms of profit, we have solid results with a EUR 3.4 billion segment operating income and a strong cash flow generation of EUR 2.2 billion. And we are at the same time pursuing our effort to have less impact on the planet. And we have now in our products 31% renewable and recyclable content in all our offerings on average. That, for 2024, we have decided that we will propose to our shareholders a EUR 1.38 dividend per share, which corresponds to a 52% payout ratio. So we are, what we have said, we are in the 50% ballpark payout ratio. And for 2025, our guidance is very simple.
In the, I would say, exciting environment we operate in, we are proposing to progress in terms of segment operating income. And we also want to deliver a strong cash flow in excess of EUR 1.7 billion without excluding acquisition. So before moving into the question sessions, I leave the floor to Yves, who is going to give you more details.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. To enter a little bit in detail, I would like to share with you an assessment of our performance at 360 degrees, starting with our environmental action plan. It deploys mainly on three areas. First, our climate plan, which has been enhanced, and we have more ambition than what we declared in the past towards 2030. It has been validated by the SBTi. In 2024, concretely, our CO2 emission scope one and two, so coming either from the production of energy or the purchase of energy, has decreased by 13% versus 2023. When we look at the resources, our water withdrawal has decreased by 7.7% overall. As mentioned by Florent, the rate of renewable and recycled rates has increased by three points versus 2023, from 28% to 31%. Last, in terms of biodiversity, our main stake in our industry is natural rubber.
At the end of the year, 2024, 98% of the natural rubber we purchase is assessed deforestation-free, according to the EUDR, the European regulation that has been postponed by one year, but that we will have to reinforce from January 2026. All these indicators are, of course, embedded in our new sustainability report that will be published with our URD early April, according to the European CSRD. Looking now at our performance in terms of people, first, I will rebound on Florent's comment about engagement. Our engagement rate at 84.7% increased by 1.2 points versus 2023, which is probably one of the largest improvements we record in the recent years. At the same time, concrete proof of this engagement is that 57% of our employees subscribe to our shareholder plan, which is four points above 2022, and which is one of the highest rates in the market.
Another element which is very important for us is the fact that versus 2021, in 2024, 17% of the managers, we have 17% more managers versus 2021 that have begun their career as manufacturing operators. And last but not least, we have announced early 2024 that we are looking to implement a living wage threshold for all our employees across the group. And this engagement has been certified by Fair Wage Network at the beginning of 2024. So now moving to, let's say, more the profit performance, let's first speak about the markets. In 2024, the market, and the selling market that we are publishing, were pretty distorted by inflows of budget tires, both in passenger cars and light trucks and truck tires.
Some of these inflows were made in anticipation of either potential tariffs like truck tires in the first half of the year in North America, in the US, coming from Thailand, or in the second half, the prospect of the implementation of the EUDR, the deforestation regulation in Europe, pushed some Asian producers to anticipate and push tires toward their distributors ahead of the implementation of this regulation. That has modified a little bit the profile of the market. And at the same time, all across the different segments, so in passenger car, in truck, but as well in the specialties markets, from the second half of the year, we have seen most of the original equipment market dropping. And overall, passenger car tire market has grown by 2% over 2024, with original equipment at - 2% and replacement at + 4%.
The drop of original equipment is mainly concentrated on the second half of the year. In truck tires, the market grew by 1%, with OE down by 7%. This figure for truck tires is still China market, and replacement increasing by 3%. The Chinese market itself has decreased by 5%, which is important given the size of the market and the capacity installed in this country. The mining market has slightly decreased, not because of the consumption, but because most of the mining operators have reduced their inventories. We consider that at the end of the year, they have been, let's say, at a more normative level than at the beginning of the year. In the specialties, we have seen a very sharp drop in agriculture and construction, particularly in the original equipment. Replacement were, let's say, more stable or slightly growing, particularly in the mature market.
OE for agriculture has been down by 20%. In construction, it's - 15%. This market has been severely impacted by the original equipment sales. At the same time, we have seen material handling also a little bit soft when aircraft tires have continued to grow. The two-wheel market is now recovered after two years of overstocking and destocking. The polymer composite solution has been overall slightly smooth in 2024. In that context, our sales were down by 3.1% at ISO exchange rates, with an important volume decrease by 5.1%. Price mix at +2%, with a very strong mix effect of 1.9% over the year, both coming from the enrichment of our product mix, but as well from the different evolution between replacement and original equipment market. The non-tire market has been overall stable if we consider that the scope effect is coming from FCG.
We have been impacted negatively by the currency, -1 point, which led us to end the year with sales of EUR 27.2 billion. I want now to zoom on the third segment, the specialty segment sales. If you look, passenger car tires have been, our sales volumes have been -1.7%, truck -6%, and the specialty segments, the SR3, -9%. From these 9 points of decrease, 7 are coming from our Beyond Road activity, construction, material handling, agriculture, of which three quarters is basically coming from original equipment. The remaining quarter from the replacement, particularly in construction. On the mining side, which represents around 25% of the overall specialty business volume decrease.
In fact, if we isolate our growth in South America, North America, and Asia, particularly Australia, Indonesia, in fact, most of the volume lost are coming mostly from destocking from some customers, such as Anglo American in South Africa, the stop of mining operations in Panama, copper mining, and the implementation of more stringent export control measures toward particularly Central Asian countries. In terms of operating margin, so the group at ISO exchange rate succeeds despite the very important volume lost to stabilize its operating margin at 12.6%, with a EUR 70 million currency effect at current Forex; it's 12.4%. Looking at the different effect of this bridge, so the EUR 28 million of the scope contribution is mostly coming from FCG. It's three quarters of the year, basically.
The volume, the huge effect of volume is basically two-thirds coming from the loss of volume in margin and 1/3 coming from the under-absorption of fixed costs in the factories. We have a very strong price mix of +EUR 438 million, of which most is coming from the second half of the year, around EUR 350 million. At the end of the first half, this effect was + EUR 84 million. Raw material cost has positively contributed to this bridge, with a very positive effect in the first half and a negative effect in the second half, as well as the manufacturing and log costs, which are nearly neutral over the year, but were strongly positive during the first half with the decrease of energy and logistic costs, and for example, the maritime shipping cost in the first half.
When in the second half, the impact of inflation has altered our manufacturing operations. SG&A grew basically according to the pace of inflation, with a slower growth in the second half of the year than in the first half. Non-tire contribution is slightly negative due to very high 2023 basis, and in the other, you will mostly find the effect of variable bonus from one year to another, so this year, it's positive because we will have less bonuses than in 2023. Looking at this performance by business segment, I would like first to mention that we have reclassified the two-wheel business, which is more B2C, so a consumer business, along with the passenger car business, so the first segment now includes both passenger car and two-wheel, and overall, this segment has been able to maintain its operating margin at 13.1% versus 13.2% in 2023.
The main improvement is coming from the second segment, the transportation business, which despite very strong negative volume, has seen mostly coming from the original equipment sales and the fact that they have repositioned their priorities on areas where we can really create value. So they have benefited from a very strong and positive pricing policy, as well with the contribution of Michelin Connected Mobilities, which is positively contributing to this activity. Last, our SR3 performance, which is operating margin decreasing by 2.7 points, has been penalized by the performance of our mining and Beyond Road activities, and particularly the Beyond Road activities, which has been impacted severely by the original equipment market impact.
So facing this situation, I would just like to remind that the group, in the past 18 months, since basically October 2023, we have announced nine capacity adjustments, plus the disposal of our Compact Line businesses and construction businesses, bias construction businesses in Sri Lanka. Altogether, these nine operations are contributing to a withdrawal of 10% of our standard passenger car tire capacity and 15% of our truck tire, radial truck tire capacity in the world. And in parallel, the group is, of course, continuing to accelerate on the digitalization and its artificial intelligence roadmap, particularly in manufacturing, where we are now starting to get very concrete contribution from these projects.
As we might expect, a question about tariff and our situation, particularly in North America and in the US, I just would like to remind that Michelin has started its manufacturing implementation in the USA 50 years ago, in 1974. We operate now 35 manufacturing sites in the US, of which 20 are tire-related sites and 15 coming from the Polymer Composite Solutions division. We employ 20,000 people in the US, and Michelin has been awarded several awards related to the way we are managing and our people management system, the last one coming from Forbes in 2024. USA represents one-third of the group sales, and this one-third of group sales are procured by 70% of local production, so US production servicing US market.
At the same time, we should not forget that, for example, our mining facility in South Carolina is exporting more than 80% of its production everywhere in the world, in Americas, but as well in South, North America, and Asia. So that's basically a way to share with you that we have a very strong local-to-local strategy, and it's a concrete example of the way we are operating in the largest market for the group. Now moving toward more, let's say, cash consideration, our free cash flow performance is the second best performance in the group history after 2023, as we land with a EUR 2.2 billion free cash flow at the end of 2024, mostly coming from a very strong EBITDA at 19.7%, 5.3, nearly EUR 5.4 billion.
Thanks to a very good management of our working capital, despite inflation in inventories at the end of the year, with EUDR implementation, natural rubber, and butadiene price inflation, we have been able to decrease the overall value of our inventory by EUR 165 million. And at the same time, we have seen a decrease in our financial costs and some improvement in the way we are managing our capital expenditure along the year. Overall, we are very satisfied with this free cash flow contribution, which represents a cash conversion ratio above 40%. Our ROI, despite the impact of segment operating income decrease and lower contribution from JV and associates versus 2023, as in 2023, we record the sales of half of our stake in Symbio and the disinvestments by our TBC Joint Venture in North America of its retail company and division.
We have been able to maintain our free cash flow above our ROI, above the 10.5% threshold defined in 2020. So all that allowed us to keep a very strong balance sheet with a very slight decrease of our net financial debt by nearly EUR 170 million and a gearing at 16.7%. All our ratings have been confirmed and maintained by the rating agencies. Now let's look at 2025 and our guidance. Our 2025 markets are plagued with a lot of uncertainties. And looking at both passenger car and truck tire market overall, we consider that this market will be either flattish or slightly positive, but with two very different patterns versus 2024. First, we are expecting a different seasonality between the first half and the second half.
We consider that the first half, both for passenger car tires and truck tires, original equipment market will continue to be depressed during the first half of the year, and we are expecting, at least for truck tire and probably as well for passenger car tire, a rebound during the second half of the year, when at the same time, we should record a slight growth in replacement markets, so that will be, let's say, the two different patterns versus 2024. We are also expecting two-wheels markets, mining, aircraft, and polymer composite solution to record slight growth. In our beyond tire activity, agricultural construction, we think that original equipment will continue to be depressed during most of the year.
We might record a rebound, but in the very last months of 2025, when we look at, let's say, past cycle, we consider that we should recover volume growth in OE, for example, in agriculture and construction, but most probably end of 2025 or early 2026. So in this very uncertain context, market that will remain volatile, we intend to hold on our 2030 cap and on the strengths and the key assets that Florent mentioned in his third slide, the quality of our team, the strength of our brand, our innovation potential, and the quality and the performance of our products and services. Therefore, we will continue to try to grow on the area where we can create value and where it matters. So that we will continue on this journey, while at the same time, accelerating our product renewal and product innovation.
We have a lot of new product launch plans in 2025. The new Primacy 5 range has been already announced in passenger car, but there will be other announcements later on. In truck tires, we have a new R emix retreading offer in Europe, new ranges planned both in Europe and North America, and as well in construction and agriculture, we have new products that are going to be launched in 2025. We will pursue, of course, the growth of our Michelin Connected Mobility activities and Polymer Composite Solutions, and we want to continue to achieve our industrial footprint roadmap that has been following the announcement made in 2023 and 2024, so with all these cards in hand, we are looking, as Florent mentioned, to deliver a higher segment operating income at ISO FX versus 2024.
We are as well aiming to deliver a free cash flow above EUR 1.7 billion before any merger and acquisition transaction. So thank you for listening to this presentation, and I think now that we can open the Q&A session.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your phone keypad. Please ask your question in English. The first question is from Martino De Ambroggi of Equita. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. My first question is on the specialty, which in the specialty division, which in the second half recorded 11.6% return on sales. Just to understand, what is your expectation for the current year? And if I do the math correctly, including the moto, which I should correct me if I'm wrong, EUR 500 million of sales with low single-digit return on sales, profitability, including moto, would have been lower than 10%. So this is my first question.
Maybe on two-wheel, I think you probably need to revise your calculation because actually 2024 has been a record year for two-wheel activity. And then for the Segment 3, what we have as more detailed the situation. Mining, we had a lot of one-off in 2024, and we expect 2025 not to have those one-offs. And therefore, the structural underlying activity in mining should be much better in 2025. In beyond road, we have some restructuring to do, and the OE market, as you mentioned, should recover towards the, at best, the end of 2025, presumably early 2026. So that's why we don't forecast what Segment 3 is going to be. We expect mining to be much better, aircraft to be very strong, and we expect beyond road to recover slightly. However, we would not be completely in a safe place before 2026.
Thank you. Back to the moto, I was looking at last year's adjustment compared to the last year's results and now restated. And at least last year, it seemed to be quite low, the profitability for the moto. May I ask you more or less what could be taken into account for this division?
When you say last year, you're talking 2023. So 2023, yes, it was a difficult year for two-wheel because of the reason of we had a lot of destocking. Right after COVID, you had a lot of stocking happening everywhere, and it took two years to purge that. It started in 2021, and it took two years to purge. So 2023, you had a lot of destocking, and the performance was not strong. In 2024, the performance has been much better. And actually, for this activity, 2024 has been a record year.
Okay, thank you. And just a very follow-up on the guidance. The steel tariffs and these kinds of things are, at least what is already effective, is included in your guidance?
What is already effective, but implemented, is in the guidance. The rest is we have to wait for what will happen.
Thank you.
The next question is from Harry Martin of Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. So the first one, I really just want to try and understand what is built into the floor of the guidance and what the potential upsides are. So I mean, on the scenarios next year in terms of volumes where passenger car, truck, end of the year in a negative, that's the kind of the lower end. Does that already include some expected disruption from tariffs? And then similarly, in the specialty part, given how easy the comp is for it to be negative, would that be a further step down in absolute volumes rather than simply stabilizing at the current levels?
So the question about conservatism in the guide, our aim with our team is to overdeliver on what we commit to. So I leave you to judge whether it's conservatism or not. Now, about the tariff and Michelin over the past five years has weathered many different storms, and we've always come with solid results. So we have to wait and see what is really happening in terms of tariffs before we can make any forecast. Today, we don't know. So at this stage, we have just put in the guidance what we know for sure. And the rest is speculation, basically.
Okay, thank you. My second question, Florent, I listened to your appearance in the Senate Committee, and the interesting disclosure, I think, was that the production cost that you have today in Europe is almost twice that there is in Asia. Even if you aren't directly competing with the Chinese brands in a lot of the premium markets, does that impact the pricing power of the business in Europe? If we have cost inflation and natural rubber prices going up, or is there still ability to price? And also, I guess, do you have capacity in the right types of tire production in Southeast Asia to potentially export into Europe, even if those are just done as a temporary measure?
So to summarize on a worldwide basis, we were net exporter out of Europe and net importer in the rest of the world. Right now, what I've said is, because of the cost structure in Europe, we cannot be in that position anymore. Hence, what we have done in restructuring, reshaping the production capacities. Are we done with all of it? I think we have done a substantial portion of it. And the effect will be seen. It takes a while before we will get the full benefit, and we will start to see some benefit next year and in the following years that will improve our cost structure in Europe and therefore our competitive activity.
The pricing power is a different subject. Today, our brand is very strong. Our customers believe in our product. They trust our brand. They like the performance of our product. And that dictates the pricing ability we have. So I don't relate directly the cost to the pricing because we have been building a very strong consumer and customer relationship, whether it's in Europe or in any other part of the world.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Thomas Besson of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I would start with a question on your anticipation for volume recovery for specialty cars in 2026. As I noted, your confidence in meeting your 2026 targets, while consensus seems to have lost that confidence. The first question.
Yves, you want to answer? I have a lot of confidence in 2026, but some details with Yves. Okay.
I mentioned that in specialty, we have two very different situations. We have the mining activity where in 2024, we're impacted by, let's say, one-off effect, and there is no reason that this activity does not recover, even starting in 2025, its previous volume. On the beyond road activity, keep in mind that for the agriculture and construction infrastructure business, nearly half of the business is coming from original equipment and the other half from replacement. Given the cyclicality of the original equipment market, which is due, for example, linked for agriculture to farmers' revenues, and farmers' revenues were very high, particularly after the war in Ukraine, which inflated a lot of agricultural commodities, are down for the past two years, and it's impacted this market. But when we look overall, the past 15 years, you have this kind of cycle of every 18 months, two years.
So we expect that normally, specialty original equipment market should be supportive in either the very last of 2025 or in 2026. Now, overall, I take a rebound on Yves' answer on specialty to 2024 has been really unusual with a very sharp decline in OE in almost every market we operate in in tires: passenger car, truck, off-road, agricultural, material handling, etc. If I take passenger car, the mileage driven in the world is very stable, slightly increasing. Therefore, as we have seen a very sharp OE drop in volume, it means that replacement has been somewhat slightly boosted, but it means that the vehicle park is aging, and it cannot age forever.
So that's why we say we think there is a lot of confusion in the buyers of cars right now, and we think that's what we anticipate that will be the case in the first semester in 2025 still, and we should expect a recovery in the second half of 2025. When we look at truck, in truck, the situation is we have seen a massive destocking across all industries around the world in 2024. As this destocking has happened, we think in 2025, if the economy behaves almost the same way as 2024, we are going to see some better activities for truck tire, truck. And therefore, we anticipate that the truck, especially in North America, the truck OEM will recover in the second semester, and therefore, we will benefit from that.
Thank you. Can I ask you what we should assume for 2025 and 2026 in terms of cost savings or restructuring benefits of the various actions you've mentioned in terms of the capacity reduction in standard passenger cars, in trucks, and the sale of your construction equipment business?
So restructuring, basically, we believe that we should get the full benefits within, let's say, between two and three years. So you will have nearly half in 2025 and another half between 2026 and early 2027. So if I look in terms of in 2025, it should be around EUR 120 million+ . Regarding the transaction related to Sri Lanka, it will be a transaction in three steps. When we will have the closing, we'll get, let's say, three quarters of the amount that we are expecting.
Then you'll have a three-year period where we will lease the brand Camso to the buyer, and there will be a lump sum at the end of these three years. And in the meantime, we have also some inventories that we have to sell to the buyer. So basically, you will have, I think, on a transaction of around EUR 225 million, you will have EUR 150 million of cash coming in 2024 in 2025 and the rest in the following years. And of course, in terms of improvement in operating margin, it will follow this pace because as we have the inventory destocking for the, let's say, probably the next 12-18 months, we'll have the full effect by probably mid-2026 or end of 2026.
Thank you. Very good. Last question, please. You've executed half of your share buyback in 2024. I think the message initially was that it was a plan for 2024, 2025, 2026. Given the strong cash generation we've had again in 2024, is it fair to assume that you may finalize this buyback in 2025? And is it fair to assume that you may announce more of this if no acquisition comes out during 2025?
So right now, as we speak, we stick to the plan. We said EUR 1 billion in three years, and we have already done EUR 500 million. But at this stage, it's too early to say something else.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Good evening and thanks for taking my question. I will ask one at a time. The first question is on the restructuring, so the net cash impact on the free cash flow from the restructuring actions. So you have indicated for the savings 120 + for 2025. I'm just wondering if you can give us some indication on the free cash flow side in terms of net cash impact.
The net cash impact is in the range of EUR 350-400 million in 2025. Most of the cash impact is in 2025 and 2026. There was already some cash impact around EUR 170 million in 2024, but most of it is coming next year.
So 350 to 400 in 2025. Sorry, can you repeat, please?
Yeah. EUR 350-400 million of cash out related to restructuring in 2025.
Okay, perfect. Thank you. And my second question is on the URD. So URD has been postponed by one year. Maybe I'm wrong, but this could provide Asian players with a still competitive cost advantage. I'm just wondering if you share my view and if you can give us some highlights on your market share's evolution in SR1 and SR2 going forward. And that's the second question. Thank you.
So EUDR has been postponed at the end of November, and it was supposed to be enforced for the 1st of January. So of course, we were ready. So now we have a 100% EUDR compliant way of sourcing our natural rubber. Now, Asian competitors, we don't know what they will be doing. We don't really compete in the same league, so we don't anticipate this to have a major effect on them nor us, this difference.
Okay.
Market share evolution in SR1. If you look at SR1, basically in OE, it's been tough on us because we are on platforms that we had chosen some platforms, and those are the ones that are not really selling right now, but we are confident that they will be selling. So right now in OE and Segment 1, our share has temporarily suffered. In replacement, where it matters, our share has been okay.
Perfect. Thank you very much. And the very last is on just housekeeping. If you can give us some rough indication on the raw material headwinds for 2025 and the potential gaps on the forex. Thank you.
Yeah. So the overall raw material headwinds, we are today assessing it at around 250 million EUR, of which 100 million is coming from EUDR, as we have decided not to come back on our EUDR policy because we have started to supply our factories in September with EUDR certified natural rubber. Unfortunately, the European authority decided to postpone the regulation, but we were ready. And we consider it doesn't make sense to stop to buy EUDR and to restart next September. So we stick to what we have decided. And we consider that it's also a question of accountability versus all the value chain because you have to imagine that upstream, a lot of people have worked in order to be ready to comply with this regulation. So basically, around 100 million upon 250 of overall raw material headwind.
Perfect. I can imagine that on forex, it's a little bit more challenging too.
Yeah, but the forex, we have, as I mentioned earlier, we have one-third of our sales in USA, nearly 40% of our sales in USD. So generally, when our overall structural position related to US dollar is long, as of course, there is an impact of, for example, European or Asian operations who are purchasing raw materials that are underlying on USD, but at the same time, we have very strong revenues in US dollars. So we don't make a lot of, of course, we are making some forecast assumptions related to the forex, but the forex, basically, the footprint we have is the footprint we have. Our customers are not going to move. So what we generally communicate is that one cent of variation of dollars versus euro represents roughly EUR 30 million in operating margin.
Thank you very much. Very clear. Thank you.
Excuse me, this is the operator. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one maximum two questions only per person. Thank you. The next question is from Jose Asumendi of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening. A couple of topics, please. The first one on capacity, very impressive all the work you're doing there to take down capacity in the different subsegments. Do you foresee to take additional capacity cuts beyond what you have already announced strategically if there is a need to take down capacity more in different subsegments? And related to this, please, what is the year-on-year net cost savings you are targeting in 25 from this capacity work?
And then second, for me, what stands out on Michelin versus other tire companies, so to say, SR3. You have been describing the different moving parts within SR3. When do you expect this division to start finally turning the corner? I know it's difficult because there are so many end markets. Is there a point in time, you think, in the year we will start seeing that growth coming back? And very briefly, if you could just simply point, what are the biggest levers to get to that 18% + margin? I guess it's volume, obviously, but anything you can highlight. Thank you.
I think in terms of capacity, additional cuts, we have done, as you mentioned, a lot. I think we just have to make sure that those go to completion. After that, of course, we are constantly reassessing our capacity, and we look at structural capacity versus what is happening right now. The year-on-year cost saving, I think.
I mentioned it. It's around EUR 120 million for 2025.
And then on SR3, the levers to, I think mining really is performing very well, and the one-off should stay one-off, and therefore, 2025 should be much better. And we don't have a growth issue in mining, provided there is no additional war, because we remember that the war in Ukraine has cut a lot of our growth in mining. And now in Beyond Road, as we say, the restructuring, we have reshaped where we want to play through the sale of some of our Compact Line bias activities. And the rest of the restructuring in Beyond Road will take a slightly more time, and we should see the effect more in 2026 than in 2025. And then in aircraft, it's very strong.
Thank you.
The next question is from George Galliers of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. I really just had one question, which was around CapEx. Firstly, could you just clarify what you're assuming for CapEx in your free cash flow guidance for 2025? And then in light of yesterday's interview, which was published in the Financial Times, should we think about any incremental investments in North America or specifically the US being in lieu or substitutional for investments in other parts of the world? Or could these investments actually be incremental relative to your previous planning assumptions? Thank you.
So I will answer the second part of your question, and Yves will give you some answers on the CapEx for 2025. So what I said in the Financial Times is looking at the evolution of tariffs across the world, of course, we have a structural investment plan for the decade to come. So we can, based on what we see happening and whether it becomes structural, we can. These are modular investments. So we can reallocate investments in order to optimize the return on that investment. So that's what I said. We have not said that because of the supposed tariff, we are going to massively shift our investment towards the US We have said we have an investment plan for the next decade. Based on that, we can reallocate priorities according to what we see happening structurally, not announced.
To complement, we have a CapEx strategy, which is based on a three- to five-year plan. We are in a heavy industry where we cannot just move CapEx from one side to another, one country to another like that. So it should obey to a long-term strategy. We have announced during our last CMD that we are intending to spend around EUR 2.2 billion in the next years, of which, by the way, 18%, for example, in 2024, and this proportion will probably be the same for the coming years, is linked to sustainability targets, either linked to the employees' well-being or decarbonation roadmaps, such as electrification of our curing workshops or other, let's say, water withdrawal or roadmap, including the improvement in the rate of recycled and renewable material. So EUR 2.2 billion is the range that we take as an hypothesis for our free cash flow guidance for 2025.
Great, Claire. Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Jacks of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions as well. I'll try to get straight to the point.
My first question, should we expect Michelin to continue to underperform the broader SR1 and SR2 tire markets in 2025, or might that get to a point of stabilization? My second question is just on the SOI guidance. If we annualize the run rate for H2, it came in somewhere around EUR 3.1-3.2 billion if you were to annualize that. And so the 2025 guidance implies at least a EUR 200 million improvement on that level. Could you please give us a sense for the main building blocks that you're looking at to help achieve that? Because it doesn't appear at first glance that it would be coming from volumes. And so the only thing I can kind of surmise is that it's going to come from better mining volumes.
And so can you confirm that the margin in mining is stronger than the underlying margin in the other businesses in SR3? And then maybe just one final question just to add to that, how do you see the phasing of segment operating income in 2025 between H1 and H2? Thank you.
Okay, so underperforming markets. Again, I consider there is nothing truly structural in our share loss in Segment 1. We had some platforms that did not perform well, but those platforms we are sure will perform well in the future. So we see those things as temporary and not structural. And in replacement now, as 65% of our volume in Segment 1 are in 18-inch +, and that's a growing segment, and we are growing at the pace or faster than the market pace, we anticipate that what we have seen for the past few years will not be the case in the next few years. And maybe Yves for the.
S o regarding the guidance, the guidance has been built on the hypothesis that we should have some rebounds in volume in the second half coming from original equipment for SR2, SR1. And at the same time, we have a reference versus 2024, which is completely reversed. So basically, we expect around 45% of the segment operating income to come from the first half and 55% on the second half, which is, by the way, if you look at our historical results, the normal patterns of normal year, if I can use this terminology. But we should have a complete reverse seasonality between H1 and H2 than in 2024.
Thank you. And then maybe just very broadly speaking, the implied growth of around EUR 200 million in the guide for this year, is that driven by better mining, expectation of volume growth on a full-year basis, or is there something else that's going to contribute to that?
It's a mix of we have in the CMD, we express very clearly that we have four levers for operating margin improvement. The first one is a mix effect that will continue, and we should not forget that we're at 65% of 18-inch and above tires at the Michelin brand in 2024, +4 points versus 2023. And there is no reason that this trend will not continue. The second one is a competitiveness measure that we already mentioned. The third one is the contribution of the mining and the SR3 turnaround. And the fourth one is, of course, the contribution of non-tire activity, both Michelin Connected Mobility and Polymer Composite Solutions.
That's very clear. Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Aspinall of Jefferies. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good evening, Florent and Yves. Just one for me. If I think back to the bridge you just talked about to the 26 SOI target, mix was clearly the largest driver. Can you help us just think about the phasing of mix benefits in 2025 and 2026 to get to that EUR 4.2 billion number? And then also maybe more a qualitative kind of thought, just how we can think about that mix as being within your control.
So I'm not sure I rightly picked up the first part of your question, but there are several mix. The ones that are under control are the product mix, the mix related to our brands, our different brands. Probably the one which is a little bit less on the short term under our control is the one between markets or business lines. So it has been very the mix effect, for example, between original equipment and replacement was very strong positively in 2024. Of course, it's also a compensation of the huge impact on the volume we had negatively on the OE side. So definitely, the mix which is related to our offers is in our hand. The mix related to, let's say, short-term market variation is less under our control.
And amongst those mix, the segment mix, we expect to continue to grow our Segment 3 versus the rest of the segments. And the Segment 3 is by far the most profitable one. So that explains why we are confident in our 2026 commitment.
Thank you.
The next question is from Christoph Laskawi of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my question as well. It's really just a follow-up on the volume answers that you gave already. Considering the statements that you made also on product rollout and market distortions in 2024 and your comment that the market share losses are nothing structural, should we consider your volumes in 2025 already to be far closer aligned with the market again than it was in 2024? So a decent step up in that regard, or are you unwilling to quantify this for now? Thank you.
We expect in 2025 not to have all the unfortunate effects that we had in 2024. At OE, as the volume sold by the OEMs gets back to a better level, we expect the platform on which we are to be performing. And on replacement in Segment 1, it's okay. In Segment 2, we think what has happened and our refocusing on markets where we want to play, I think, has been done.
In Segment 3, back to what we were saying, we expect the thing to normalize better. So we expect in 2025 not to have all the "surprises" that we had in 2024. Now, something that Yves mentioned and that is sometimes not well sufficiently understood. You had a lot of movement in inventories due to anticipation of movements in tariff or things like that, or regulation or penalties. And therefore, we have seen, especially in the Segment 3 volumes, a lot of movements of inventory around the world. We anticipate that in 2025, we will have a better vision of what is the state of tariffs, penalties, regulation, etc. And therefore, those flows that artificially boosted the markets will be less a factor in 2025.
Also interesting is if you look at our global worldwide competitor, they have a similar pattern to us in 2024 when we look at volumes and th e market.
The last question is from Stéphane Benhamou of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on the free cash flow guidance, I would assume that based on your CapEx guidance, which is probably in line with the 2024 level, this would imply a working capital headwind in terms of working capital in 2025. I would assume that the volume recovery would translate into maybe higher inventories. Am I right?
In some way, you are right. But at the same time, during the last CMD, we announced also that we have ambition to improve our overall working capital. We are at quite a good level in terms of payables and receivables, but we consider that we can probably run our business with lower inventory. So we have proven that in 2023 and 2024. So we have still, let's say, inventory reduction or improvement or better management of our inventory in 2025. And it should compensate the volume recovery that you were mentioning.
And maybe to add to Yves' comments on Michelin is making structural progress. And unfortunately, in 2024, you cannot see it because we have had a lot of headwinds in front of us. But those structural progress are there. As soon as the market conditions ease, you're going to see the effect, both on cash flow and results.
Thank you, that's clear .
Gentlemen, this was the last question. Back to you for any closing remarks you may have.
Well, thank you very much. We wish all of us a nice 2025.
Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.