Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Florent Menegaux, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good evening, good afternoon, and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us, Yves Chapot and myself, for our 2025 results call. I would like to start by summarizing our 2030 Michelin in Motion strategy. What you see on your screen is our group relies on four strong and clear distinctive assets. Our Michelin's way of managing based on empowerment, autonomy, and responsibility. Our company's resilience comes from team cohesion and shared values. Number two, we have a strong and well-recognized brand. Our Michelin brand is now worth more than $10 billion, and it is the ninth strongest brand in the world across all categories, not only in tires. We capitalize on a powerful innovation with deep expertise in complex materials assembly. And finally, we sell best-in-class products and services with long-term value delivered to our customers.
Our group operates, and that's in the middle of your screen, in two complementary fields: tires and mobility on historic core Polymer Composite Solutions, in which our group is leveraging its material expertise acquired in tires and where we are accelerating our growth. In 2025, and that's the right of your screen, our group achieved the following performance. An engagement rate at 84.4, high and stable, close to our 2030 target of 85%. A segment operating income of EUR 2.9 billion at iso-Forex . This is, of course, disappointing performance, as we did not reach our initial 2025 guidance. I am sure, however, you have noticed that we have reached the upper part of our revised guidance. It shows that we were able to turn things around in the last quarter.
Our free cash flow before M&A reached EUR 2.1 billion, reinforcing our financial strength and our ability to generate cash. Our renewable and recycled material rates stands at 32%, 1 point better than last year. The road ahead to our 2030 ambition is long, but we make strides. Regarding the shareholder return, we are proposing a stable 1.38 EUR per share dividend, which corresponds to a 50%-57% payout ratio. Confident in our future, we intend to launch a new share buyback program to, of up to EUR 2 billion over the next three years, 2026-2028 period. Here, I would like to reemphasize to all of you that M&A is still a priority as we are deploying our Michelin in Motion 2030 strategy.
Our structurally strong cash generation allows us to finance both CapEx, dividends, and share buyback programs in a flexible way. Regarding our financial guidance for 2026, our ambition is to progress in terms of segment operating income at iso-Forex and iso-scope , which we want to make clear that our ambition is to progress at 2025 perimeter. On the cash side, we intend to generate at least EUR 1.6 billion in free cash flow before M&A. Now, I would like to take a few minutes to come back Polymer Composite Solutions development. aside from our core business in tires and mobility, where our ambitions remain intact as being the world leader, we are determined to grow Polymer Composite Solutions, businesses. by doing so, we will improve the resilience of our group and its profitability.
Michelin's approach in PCS is based on three pillars: leveraging group R&D. Michelin leverages over a hundred years of experience in developing the best tires. Our deep science in material, and unrivaled ability to industrialize and produce at scale provide us with a unique opportunity to access several very attractive adjacent categories. We are building a diversified portfolio of independent businesses targeting Michelin critical applications. Within our group, we manage our polymer composite business with a specific operating model. We develop strong synergies in terms of R&D, and we operate in a much more decentralized way than in tires. The destination markets represent an addressable market of more than EUR 70 billion, organized around six main product categories, as you can see on the bottom left of your screen.
Since we acquired Fenner in 2019, we have grown at a CAGR of around 7%, with a balanced mix of organic and external growth. With the latest three acquisitions we have announced, we could reach pro forma 2025 sales of around EUR 1.7 billion, with an operating margin of more than Polymer Composite Solutions business, including our recent announce, recently announced acquisitions, show a good balance, both in terms of market verticals and geographies. That's on the right, and market verticals are on the left. What you can see is North America becomes our largest regions after the three latest acquisitions, and it will enable cross-selling synergies and contribute to the upcoming growth in PCS. Now, I'll hand over to Yves for the rest of our presentation.
Thank you, Florent. So I'm going to lead you through our performance in our key performance indicators regarding people, profit, and planet. Regarding people, the group has shown very strong improvement in terms of safety. Our TRIR is now at 4, below 4.45, which is an improvement of 53 basis points versus 2024. And our Net Promoter Score with our partner customers has improved by 5.3 points versus 2024. We are on track for both indicators on our 2030 ambitions. I will come back on the profit more in detail afterwards. And regarding the planet, versus 2019, we have already achieved 48% CO2 emission reductions versus 2019, which was nearly the objective we intend to reach by 2030.
So we are far ahead, thanks to a lot of levels, including purchasing of green electricity, but as well transiting from more carbon-intensive energy to less carbon-intensive energies. And last, I would like to comment the abrasion performance. If you compare the set of offers of Michelin in 2025 versus 2020, in average, the performance of our tires in abrasion has improved by 8.4%, which translate in less material for the same usage, but as well as an improvement and competitive advantage in term of total cost of ownership for our customers. It make us the undisputed leader in this area. Now, coming back more to the economic situation, I would like first to comment the market.
The market has shown very, contrasted, pictures over the world and over the different, segments, but overall, there were moderately soft, versus 2024. Very tough in original equipment, particularly in B2B applications. If you look at original equipment, and if you set apart passenger car tire in China and truck and bus in Europe, all the market were down versus 2024, with even -20% for the heavy-duty vehicles in North America. The replacement market, if you look at the figure, seems to post a more positive picture.
But in reality, we should not ignore that this trend was triggered by the inflow of Asian tires in anticipation of the tariff in North America and the antidumping measures that the European Union is intending to implement versus passenger car tires coming from China. So overall, at the end of the year, when we look at the inventory of our wholesalers, they are pretty heavy loaded with these tires, and we estimate that will takes probably another semester to flush out these tires from the distribution channel. On the other hand, when we look our own inventory, they are at a quite healthy level in all channel of distribution. Regarding specialties, Mining, Aircraft are posting positive growth.
Beyond Road is still plagued by the original equipment cycle, and I will have the opportunity to come back on the situation of Beyond Road, particularly in OE. Replacement has shown some sign of recovery, particularly in Europe, Polymer Composite Solutions are posting low single-digit growth over the year. Regarding our sales, so, 2025, I've seen very strong headwinds, first one being the volumes. Our volumes were down by 4.7%, mostly driven by original equipment, and I will have the opportunity to come back on that. The situation of volume has improved over the year. Volume in H1 were at -6.1, in H2 at -3.4. Price mix is still positive over the year, 3%.
The non-tire activity are contributing to 0.3, so, you have seen the weight of, Polymer Composite Solutions, but this activity grow in itself by 3.4% during the year. And of course, we have been severely impacted by the currency effect, €800 million, 3%, of which half is coming from the US dollar, and two-thirds in the second half, one-third in the first half. So overall, our sales, including Forex, has decreased by 4.4% over the year.
Now, zooming on the volume, so volume decreased by 4.7%, so nearly 5%, of which 80% is coming from original equipment businesses, half from the truck tire businesses, with a stronger drop on, particularly in the North American, which is a very important market for us, and the rest is shared between passenger car and agriculture, all across the regions. Passenger car tires have grown in China, but the market and our volumes have decreased in the other regions.
Our overall replacement sales were posting a slight negative, so 1 point volume contribution overall, but with a very diverse situation between Michelin brand, which is growing across practically all the business segment, and our tier two and tier three brand, that has been probably more impacted by the inflows of budget tires, both in our North American and European core markets. Our operating margin. So, the margin land at EUR 2.7 billion, or 10.5%, including Forex. I will start with the Forex, because half of this EUR 200 million is coming from the USD, and three-quarters of the Forex effect is coming on the second half of the year.
Before the month of April, the USD tended to be more resilient versus the euro. But if you look across the full year, the euro has revalued against nearly all currencies, and particularly the USD. Volume is down by EUR 700 million, of which is shared between the margin effect and the lack of fixed cost absorption from our factory due to the very low level of factory loading. We have a very positive price mix, which nearly hedges the volume effect. Raw material is negative for the full year, but as a positive effect on the second half, which was mostly concentrated on the last quarter. Manufacturing and low cost are as well negative, but impacted by EUR 235 million due to the tariffs, mostly in the second half.
So if you take out this effect, our manufacturing cost, in fact, our manufacturing performance, have been improving despite a very low factory loading during the second half of the year. SG&A, which were slightly increasing at the end of the first half of the year, landed EUR 5 million below 2024, and thanks to a strong reaction and around EUR 28 million improvement in saving during the second half. We have a positive contribution from non-tire business, and the other effects are mainly due to our group bonuses. As in 2024, we have updated our bonuses in November, when in 2025 we did it in June, with a last adjustment in December, due to a better free cash flow performance than expected.
Now, looking at the picture by business segment, you see that our segments, the most impacted segments are SR2 and SR3 in terms of volumes. SR1 volume loss is mostly coming from original equipment, Europe and North America, and our tier two and tier three brands. But the Michelin brand in SR1 has been very resilient and has grown over the year. The SR2 is suffering, obviously, from the 9% volume decrease that I have already detailed, and the SR3 has been impacted as well by a strong volume decrease, which has eased during the second half of the year. At the end of June, we were posting a 6.8% volume decrease in SR3 versus 3.1% for the full year.
I would like now to come back on SR2 performance and our plan to recover and to come back to a healthier financial performance on this segment. Here you will see on the right part of the slide two charts, one which is showing you the market fluctuation within a dark blue original equipment and in green replacement for truck and bus tires over the past 10 years. So we know, and it's particularly exacerbated for original equipment, that this market is cyclical with roughly a market that can fluctuate around 30% below or above its average, depending on the cycle. And you see below with the operating margin, the strong correlation between the operating margin and these cycles.
Our strategy is consisting now in trying to desensitize our SR2 margin to this cyclicality. First, by rebalancing the respective weight of our original equipment and replacement volume, right-sizing our manufacturing capacity, and it's all the effort that has been done by the teams in the past two years, improving our local-to-local sourcing, accelerating our product plan renewal, increasing the share of services through our machine-connected fleet activity, and re-emphasizing the importance of retreading to extract the full value of the machine technology. And with all these levels, we believe that we can try to have a less exposure to these fluctuations in the years to come. The positive results in 2025 is coming from our cash flow generation.
So despite a drop in EBITDA, we have been able to generate EUR 2.1 billion of free cash flow before acquisition. After acquisition, it's even better because we have made some disinvestments in 2025. Thanks to a huge effort in working capital, despite some inflationary pressures coming from the North American tariff, we spent less in taxes and interest than in 2024. Our restructuring costs have increased versus 2024 by EUR 180 million. You will see that our CapEx has slightly decreased as well, around EUR 100 million, and we have a very positive contribution from our joint venture and associates, and from our assets, from asset disposals that we did, real estate in Euromaster or in in China.
Last, our ROCE has been impacted by a weaker segment operating income in 2025, despite EUR 550 million less capital employed in average in 2025 versus 2024. Thanks to this cash generation, it provide us some headroom to deploy our strategy, as Florent highlighted. But we have been able, in 2025, to further leverage our balance sheet with a gearing, which land at 13% at the end of the year. It give us, give to the group, the flexibility to finance both the growth of its Polymer Composite Solutions and to increase its share buyback programs.
In terms of shareholder returns, so our net results has decreased by EUR 230 million versus 2024, thanks to a better contribution of JV and Associates and versus the impact of the segment operating income, less restructuring costs, and despite as well an effective tax rate, which has increased from twenty-two percent to 26%. We'll propose to our shareholder meeting in May a stable dividend per share of 1.38 EUR per share, which represent a payout ratio of 57%. The idea is being that our payout ratio should fluctuate around 50%.
Given the strength of our balance sheet, we will propose up to EUR 2 billion share buyback program in the next three years, between 2026 and 2028, of which we will implement EUR 750 million in 2026. Now, moving to 2026, I would like first to come back on our future segment reporting, which is aiming to provide to our shareholders and to all of you, a better understanding of our different activity. In this slide, you will see a pro forma 2025 segment reporting that will allow you, in the next quarters, to compare our 2026 financial reporting with 2025 actual performance. I would like to highlight four points on this slide.
First, you have probably observed that we have decided to rename our reporting segments to better translate as much as possible the nature of our customers. So the first segment, which is Automotive and Two Wheels, is mostly addressing consumers, even it's through distributors or OEMs. The second segment has not changed. It's about Transportation, Goods and People Transportation. Specialties, it speaks by Polymer Composite Solutions, it's the name that we have shared with you since our last Capital Market Day in 2024. So what you will observe is that consumer and transportation segments performance has not changed. Specialty now is made of three business lines: Mining, which represents 40% in terms of sales; Aircraft, 10%; and Beyond Road, 50%....
Although specialties are relative for the group, with a 13.1% operating margin, this segment is clearly underperforming due to the weight and the performance of our Beyond Road activity, which is impacted by the cyclicality of the agro and the construction businesses. And it's clearly, along with the SR2, a priority to the recovery of the performance of this sub-segment is clearly a priority for the management of the company. And you see that the Polymer Composite Solutions represents 4.7% of the group sales and nearly 7% of the segment operating income, and it's the most profitable segment in term of operating margin, with nearly 15%. Florent mentioned earlier the acquisition that we have announced in the past weeks, and that will be closed during 2026.
In reality, the Cooley Group, the first acquisition, had been closed on the second of February, and we expect Tex Tech and Flexitallic to close during the first half of the year. If you take all these activities, they are all North American company, bringing nearly 2,000 new employees within the group, headquartered in different regions, and with an aggregate turnover of EUR 450 million, which is an increase of 35% for PCS. An average operating margin of 17%, so which is accretive and relative versus the existing Polymer Composite Solutions business.
For an enterprise value of around EUR 1 billion, which translate in a ratio of 11.5% EV on EBITDA, and even 9.7% if we take the EBITDA of 2025, plus the synergies that we are expecting to extract in the coming 4 years. So not taking into account the growth potential, the intrinsic growth potential of these activities. So in term of markets, coming back on, particularly on the tire market, we are expecting a rather soft market over 2026, with probably a balanced market between the original equipment and replacement, both for truck and passenger car, and probably a more optimistic picture for specialties.
In original equipment, in passenger car, due to the fact that the incentive that has been implemented in China will have probably less effect in 2026. We expect the market not to grow, at least in the first half and to be close to zero in the second half. So overall, a market that will probably be slightly decreasing versus 2025. And on the replacement market, we are confident that the market should slightly grow, and particularly on the second half of the year. The two-wheel market should as well post a positive trend. In the truck and bus, you see a very constructed situation in on original equipment with a still depressed H1, particularly in the North American market.
We expect the OE truck market to decrease by 11% over the year, with a depressed first half and a slight recovery in the second half. The replacement market should be more resilient over the year. Mining should continue to grow at a mid-single digit pace. We expect Beyond Road to stabilize and start to rebound, with the replacement market that should further increase. We have a positive orientation for Aircraft as well Polymer Composite Solutions. so in terms of guidance, as Florent shared already, we expect to deliver a segment operating income at iso-scope and Forex above 2025, and a free cash flow above EUR 1.6 billion before acquisitions.
This guidance is relying on some key assumptions. We expect overall for the year to recover our growth in volume, probably with a flat H1 and a slight growth in H2, with a gradual recovery of original equipment market, particularly in B2B. And we expect this growth thanks to an increased differentiation of from innovation both in term of product and data. We should have the tailwind of the raw material that will play for the full year. And we expect with the assumptions we have in term of tariff and Forex, and I might come back on that we expect the...
We build our forecast on the Forex situation at the end of 2025, so a USD around 1.18 dollars per euro, and a stable tariff situation,
...The tariff has impacted us up to around EUR 250 million in 2022 and EUR 230 million in 2025, and should have an impact of around EUR 120 million in 2026. So taking account all these assumptions and the levels and the willingness of the group to recover the growth path during that year, we believe that we can achieve these ambitions. Thank you very much, and I think now we can open the Q&A session.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone keypad. Please ask your question in English. In the interest of time, we kindly ask you to limit yourself to two questions only. The first question is from Akshat Kacker, J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good evening, Akshat from JP Morgan. I have two questions, please. The first one on capital allocation. Clearly, a greater intent from your side to give back cash to shareholders, almost allocating 100% of free cash flow between dividends and share buybacks. And you also mentioned in your prepared remarks about M&A still being a priority. So could you just remind us how, how you're thinking about your balance sheet going forward and leverage targets over the cycle, please? That's the first question. And the second one is on your EBIT development in 2025. Now, when I think about the two halves, clearly very different from each other, EUR 1.45 billion SOI in the first half, EUR 1.25 billion, roughly, in the second half.
I remember you telling us that second half seasonality is for better profits, and you talked about a large element of one-offs based on lower capacity utilization in the second half. So are you in a position to tell us what was the real underlying earnings of the business in the second half, excluded for those one-offs, and how it can be extrapolated back going into 2026? Thank you so much.
So I will start with a few elements, and Yves will complement. So on the first, on the EBIT and development and the seasonality, sometimes H2 is better than H1, and sometimes it's the reverse. Now, 2025 has been really special because of huge movements of inventories across the globe due to the situation in the US, and therefore, this has perturbed the normal cyclicality of markets. So today, we don't anticipate the situation to improve in the market in the first semester, but we have already signals that it will be gradually improving. Based on the circumstances we see now, of course, it will be gradually improving, so we are confident.
Plus, the fact that we have been very reassured by what happened in the Q4 of 2025, where we adjusted, it took us some time to realign and readjust what we had to do, but all the strong assets of Michelin are still there, and the transformations are still ongoing, and our capacity to grow is still there. So, we have tuned, and we have adapted to the market conditions, and it paid, it has paid a dividend in the Q4. So we are confident in our ability to deliver what Yves just said.
In terms of capital allocation, we have decided to say that our balance sheet is too deleveraged, and at 13%, we have a lot of flexibility. So of course, we anticipate the interest rates to decrease in the coming years. We have today debt that are very at a very advantageous rate. So basically, we said, "Okay, we can use our balance sheet that we have generated today to distribute our dividends according to what we have said, plus to share, to buy back shares," because that's, that is in the past. In the future, our balance sheet is still strong and is very low, has very low leverage.
So that's why we have said we can do everything without compromising our strategy. Maybe, Yves, if you want to add?
And maybe to focus on this capital allocation, we, before the COVID, we used to end the year with a cash of around EUR 2.5 billion. In the with the COVID, with the huge inflationary pressure that we get in 2022, which was nearly EUR 2 billion on our working capital, we end with a much bigger cash at the end of the year, and we consider that it's not optimized to keep this level of cash. So that's why we need as well to come back to a more healthier level.
And, and-
Of course, we are at 13% gearing. If I take the assumption of at least EUR 1.6 billion of free cash flow, and I had the dividend of a little bit more EUR 900 million, plus the EUR 750 million of share buyback, it means that we'll increase, at the end of the year, the debt by nearly EUR 1 billion, which is basically the enterprise value of the acquisition we just announced. Which will probably lead us to still land in the round of 20% or below 20% gearing. So we are still in a very healthy and solid situation.
Sorry, to come back on the market situation, I forgot to mention that the fundamentals of passenger car, the mileage driven all across the world, is very stable. So it means that the OE being down in most mature markets, what happens is the vehicle park is aging very fast, actually. And it's the same situation in truck, despite the fact that the Cass Freight Index indexed in the US is sharply down. But the vehicle park is still very much aging, so it cannot age forever. So at some point, the market will have to recover, and that's what we start to anticipate.
In profit comments, should we think about any extraordinary costs in the second half result, on what you reported in the second half, in terms of sharp adjustments to capacity? Or do you think that second half result is a good number to look at when you think about what carries over to the first half of this year?
No, because you—the second half, we had a very contrasted picture between Q3 and Q4. We have a very bad Q3, particularly in North America, which lead us to the profit warning in October, and we have a far stronger and far healthier situation in the Q4. So when we look at the trend of Q4 and projecting Q4 in Q1, it make us relatively optimistic on our ability to improve our operating margin in 2026, starting in the first half.
Thank you so much.
The next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good evening, everyone. The first question I have is on the price mix performance. When we spoke at Q3, you didn't have a lot of confidence in Q4 price mix, guided it to slope sequentially, driven by what competitors were doing with discounting and imports. In the end, price mix accelerated in Q4. So how did you achieve that? Which markets were better than the expectations, and how do you feel about the price premium for your products in the key segments? And then I'd like to ask about the non-tire M&A as well. It would be good to hear some more of the rationale in how you go about choosing targets.
Of the three acquisitions in the U.S., some seem to be more in quite technical products, specialty fabrics and coatings. Some you could say are a little bit more simple type products, seals and gaskets. So help us understand where in this very disparate industry, the real value creation opportunity is, and where that genuine underlying demand growth is for these products. Thank you.
So on the price mix, what happened during the 2025 was very stressful because we had Q1, we had to fix China, Q2, we had to fix Europe, and Q3, we had to fix U.S. And so it moved around, and it put us in very stressful situation. Basically, the tariff situation led us to, as we are the leader in price, led us to adapt to the market conditions and to the tariff situation, which put us out of the market, basically. So we were not according to the market situation, to the market conditions, so we have adapted. And as soon as we have adapted, immediately the good, strong fundamentals of Michelin came back.
And that's why you, we have seen the price mix came back. So when we are... You're slightly depositioned, of course, we've lost share during those moments in the various regions. We lost share, but we recapture those lost share very quickly towards the end of the year, because we came back to what what is acceptable by the market. And of course, now we have, we are much more agile, and we can adapt to any market conditions and any market situation much more quickly than what we were able to do in the past. So we have done a lot of work on this subject, so we are now much much more agile, and maybe even on on the-
On the non-tire-
Non-tire.
-activity. So how do we choose the targets? We have a team of, in a Polymer Composite Solutions, which is dedicated to this segment. First, some targets can come from the business units we have already in our portfolio and who has a very strong knowledge of their ecosystem. But we are as well studying potential target that are offered to us or that we identify. The criteria have not changed versus what we share with you during the May 2024 capital market day. We look at critical applications.
... where generally the value of the product offered by these companies is relatively small versus the value of the entire system they contribute to move or to make functioning. Then we look at companies or activities where we consider that we have a parental advantage in term of research and development. As Laurent shared at the beginning, we look at are we able, with our capabilities in term of the material science, to enhance the performance to reduce the cost, to improve the sustainability of the product that these companies are offering? And then, of course, we look at the financials. We look at the growth, also potential. Are these businesses, these companies in segment that are at risk of commoditization or not? What are the underlying growth levels?
So that's why we look at that very carefully. It took us two years, basically, in 2023 and 2024. We did not achieve 2023, we did the-
FCG.
But 2024 and 2025, we did not achieve any major acquisition. It's just at the very end of the year and early 2026 that we're able to communicate. So, it shows that we are both prudent, but as well, we want to invest where we can really bring value to the customers and, of course, to the company and our shareholders.
Thank you.
The next question is from Martino De Ambroggi, Equita. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. Two more questions on the polymers division. So what's your best-case scenario in two, three years' time? And under the current perimeter, you used to provide a medium, long-term target in terms of profitability for your divisions. Now, we have a split of the specialty, so could you provide any target for the standalone polymers division in the current perimeter? And the second question is on the financial leverage, because you mentioned we have low leverage. But what is the maximum amount of cash out or debt to EBITDA? I don't know, just to understand, what is the firepower you are available, you are comfortable with in case of additional M&A.
First question, and Yves will take, probably the second question. So the first one is in terms of profitability, the specialties today is way below where it should be because of the weight of our Beyond Road activities that are having a tough time. So but, so we are confident that the specialty business can be, should be much at a much higher rate, because Mining and Aircraft are showing that it's very strong. And, if we look Polymer Composite Solutions, it's what I've said in my introduction. It is - it should be in excess of 15%.
So like the specialties, this should be highly relative in terms of operating income and even also in cash flow generation, because they are Polymer Composite Solutions are light in assets compared to the tire activities, so that's why we have chosen to get there. Now, also, the synergies we have most of the time is small cost synergies, but high, and we have demonstrated that with Fenner and also we are demonstrating that with the FCG. We have high revenue synergies related to the technology we can bring in the market we get in, like Yves just mentioned.
So in terms of profitability, we have said it's PCS would be at minimum 15% and, giving us growth for the group, and we intend to grow that share.
So in terms of leverage, first, I did not comment it, but all the rating agencies have confirmed our rating, which is basically A with a stable outlook. And we know basically that we can increase our debt by a few billion EUR, EUR 3 billion-EUR 4 billion, without impacting our rating. So it's a first answer. We have the room to stay strong investment grade with a strong investment grade rating while spending increasing by EUR 3 billion-EUR 4 billion our net debt.
I think we have demonstrated so far that we make moves that are interesting for the shareholders in the long run.
Thank you.
The next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good evening. First question, could you confirm that in Q4, both in SR1 and SR3, your volumes were positive? And also confirm that we should expect these two segments to have positive volumes for 2026, so that your group volumes are effectively positive for the year? The first question, and the second is two small topics on the modeling. There's been a much stronger contribution in the P&L from your associates. Could you explain why and what we should expect again in 2026 for this associates line? And the second small modeling question is, your CapEx has been a positive surprise in 2025.
The group has clearly shrunk in terms of volumes over the last three years. Could you expect that you can stay at a relatively low CapEx than what was projected at the last CMD in 2026, or was it just a one-off in 2025? Thank you.
So on the volume, Yves was clear on that. We have grown at the Michelin brand, especially on replacement markets in SR1 and SR3. Now, OE is still depressed, so we didn't grow at OE, specifically, but we have improved the performance at OE, in SR1.
But to answer precisely to the question, our volume, both in SR1 and SR3, were positive in Q4.
Now, in term of CapEx, we did not spend exactly what we wanted to spend in 2025, because of internal thing. It's not... We didn't drive specifically CapEx to shrink that much. So we have said we should be in the neighborhood of EUR 2 billion-EUR 1 billion, because we want to improve the ergonomics and especially the productivity everywhere. So we still have a lot of things to do to complete our productivity effort. So that's why we maintain that level. But we have almost zero capacity investment.
So regarding the JV and Associates, we add in these categories different kind of activities. We have some mature activities, such our distribution JV and Associates, and the activities that are linked to the natural rubber plantation and transformation. As well as one, we have as well the medical joint venture, Solesis, that we have put in a joint venture in a few years ago. These companies are generally positively contributing, and in the case of TBC, there was some additional contribution due to the fact that TBC concentrated itself on its core business, which is mostly wholesale, and sold first its retail business in company-owned retail in 2023, and more recently, its Midas franchise. So there was a, let's say, an extra contribution.
On the other end, we used to have in this segment also some technological ventures, such as AddUp and Symbio. Symbio, as you know, due to Stellantis' decision to withdraw from the hydrogen value chain as to bear some heavy restructuring cost in 2025, so it has negatively impacted. But when we look looking forward, these negative contribution are now over. We are still Symbio shareholder and we have a plan over the next three year. But the cost of the next three-year Symbio turnaround plan is already embedded in our 2025 contribution from the JV and Associates.
Looking forward, we should have, let's say, the natural recurrent contribution of distribution, medical business, and natural rubber value chain.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Hey, good evening, and thanks for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first one is on the price mix for 2026. If I'm not wrong, for 2026, we should see mostly a mix effect rather than price. And if I'm right, which is the division do you expect the mix will be... Which division will benefit the most from the mix in 2026, if I can ask? And the second question is on the truck business. I understand that the company is implementing actions to make the truck tires less related to the cycle. So, considering this action, what do you see as sustainable margins for this area?
Very finally, the last question is on the SR3. Are you planning any specification regarding the manufacturing loading rates in beyond tires? And if so, what could be, once again, a sustainable margins for this area? Thank you very much.
... So on the price mix effect, you, you're right, it's mainly a mix effect, but the mix is composed of many different dimensions. You have the geographic mix, you have the division mix, you have the product mix, you have the segment mix. There are many mixes. So it's unfortunately, we don't have the time to go into the details of the type of mixes, but yes, on the other one, the price should be, it would be more a mix and then price. But remember, we have a lot of index businesses, and the raw materials started to go down, and there is a lag between the, in the index business, the lag time before we see the-
Yep
... the decrease in the cost and before it translates into the price. That's what you start to see in 2026. But we know that we know very well how to manage pricing, and we understand what are the our input costs, so we will be very agile and adapt. In SR2, we have done a lot of restructuring, and we forgot to mention that we have the most of the restructuring in SR2, especially industrial restructuring, is behind us. And in 2025 has been affected by the Cholet closure specifically, that has a portion of the SR2 business has been heavily affected by that closure. This is behind us now. So it's very easy, Yves has been very clear.
In the down cycle, we want the margins of this business to be not destroying value and in up cycle, creating value. That's where we that's how we want to to drive the business. And when we look at Beyond Road, the learning rates are low because of OE. And we know in this business, very cyclical business, when OE gets back back, then we we we almost immediately fall into shortfall. We in back orders, and we lack products. So because the ramp up is going to be extremely steep. So what we are doing is we are flexing our industrial capacities right now, so that in term of manning, we are creating. We are very innovative in the way we we can flex these plans so that we are less sensitive to the market fluctuation.
But then we cannot give you more details on that.
Very well. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good evening. I have two questions. Please, the first one is on the raw mat. So can you please give us more detail regarding the magnitude of the raw mat tailwind that you anticipate for 2026? And what's the expected logistic and the, and the wages, the cost inflation that you also anticipate, and what's the phasing between N1-H1 and H2? This is my first question. My second question is about the share buyback program. Can you please confirm that you've said that you're committed to a program of EUR 750 million this year? And what about the remaining potential portion of EUR 1.3 billion? We expect the balanced program between 2027 and 2028. And last question is about your potential new roadmap.
When do you expect to present this new roadmap? Thank you.
Okay. So I will take the last portion of your, actually it's four questions, but so very quickly, we have said it's up to EUR 2 billion in 3 years on share buyback. We have said we will launch 750, and we will look where we are at in terms of cash generation, our balance sheet and our acquisitions, and then we will see. On the new roadmap, of course, we have to finish 2026, and 2026 just started.
Before we come back to you on the CMD to say, "Okay, what is our roadmap from 2027 up to 2030?" We will give you that roadmap at that time. And maybe on the two first question.
Yeah. So on the raw material, we estimate that we'll have a favorable effect around EUR 400 million in 2026, with a negative logistics and a wage inflation in the range of EUR 220 million. Today, it's around EUR 180 million of wages, labor cost, and around EUR 40 million in logistics. Don't forget that we'll have as well one other EUR 20 million of the 2026 effect of the North American tariffs that we hope to be able to transfer to the market. But we have seen 2025 has shown us that it's not always a long and peaceful journey.
Okay, I think we have to take the last question.
The last question is from Christoph Laskawi, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. Sorry for, for being relatively short-term. So Goodyear commented on a very negative Q1 in volume terms, down 10%. Given that you've essentially now repositioned, in, in China, in Europe, and the U.S., could you comment where you expect Q1 volumes roughly to be for the market? And if we should think about your performance, be rather in line with the market, or slightly different to that. And then just second question, really on, on the PCS business. Do you see after the 3 transactions year to date, the business in, in a place where you want it to be, or would there be further white spots that you seek to add? Thank you.
So, I will not comment on what our competitors are saying. That's down to their business. We do not see the same thing, and we expect to bring our especially the Michelin brand where it should be and where it has been and where it should be. So we have every signal that it should be the case. So our anticipation in the Q1, we don't see the market being down 10%. So I will not comment further on this. And maybe on PCS?
Oh, and maybe inventories, to complete the answer to the first question. Inventories and distribution for our product is at a healthy level-
Everywhere.
In all segments. For PCS, yes, we are constantly looking at potential opportunities. But as you know, as I explained, a deal can takes up to 18 months or 2 years. So the teams are working on some deals, but to tell you when they will be finalized, I don't have a crystal ball, because it depend as well of the willingness of the seller and of course, our ability as well to well understand. I mentioned the question of the parental advantage, to make sure that we have a real parental advantage. So that's why we take the time we need to make sure we are making sound decisions in term of acquisitions.
Well, thank you. This concludes our call. Thank you very much for attending. See you soon.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.