Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand you over to Mr. Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I will have the pleasure to share with you our sales figures for the first quarter of 2026, and try to give a little bit of color about our business going forward. For this meeting, I am accompanied by Bénédicte de Bonnechose, who is going to take over the Group CFO from June 1st. I will handle the presentation. First, the quarter, the first quarter of 2026 have started slightly better than what we were expecting. The group is posting stable revenue at iso-forex. We have 3% growth in the volumes sold at the Michelin brand in all our replacement markets across all our business segments.
The three M&A operations that we have announced at the end of 2025, early 2026, are going well on completion and two acquisitions have been already closed. At the moment I'm speaking, the Cooley Group is integrated for two months over the first quarter, and Flexitallic will be integrated in the group figures from the 1st of April. Nevertheless, the context in the Middle East has dispelled a shadow over the year to go, and at this stage, very difficult for us to assess the precise impact on our businesses. Except one certainty, which is the increasing cost of energy and raw material, which is going to impact our costs. In this context, we have not changed our guidance for the full- year.
I will come back at the end of the meeting over the elements that lead us to maintain this guidance. Looking first at the market. The market in the first quarter of 2026 were negative as expected, particularly the original equipment market. The passenger car tire market overall is negative, OE being down by 4%, mostly driven by the scale down of incentive in China and market, which is as well decreasing in North America, stable in Europe, but with a mix which is positive in terms of electrification, as the European market is posting positive growth in OE for electric vehicles. The replacement market is stable overall.
We have nevertheless to keep in mind that -3% in Europe and -7% in North America are mostly driven by 2025 Q1 and Q2, anticipated by from the importers in these respective areas. In Europe, due to the antidumping inquiries led by the European Commission, and in North America, due to the perspective of the type. 2025 figures have been, as you know, very distorted by the non-pooled businesses, and that's why these two markets are posting negative figures. On the other end, the Chinese market is growing by 9% over the first quarter. I do not mention it, but the two-wheel market is slightly growing as well in most of the areas.
Regarding transportation, so truck and buses, the businesses, as expected, the original equipment market is -3%, mostly driven by North America, where the market is at -19%. It is in the continuation of what has happened during the last half of 2025. When we look forward, although we see that the orders of new vehicle have started to increase in North America, there is still a quite important backlog of inventories, of tractors inventories, at the dealership that will take few months to be fully absorbed by the market.
For the time being, the growth of sellout of vehicle is absorbed, not by the production of new vehicle, but mostly by consumptions of already of vehicles that are already in inventories. South American market is as well highly impacted, - 16% over the quarter. On the replacement side, + 3% overall, + 7% in Europe, - 12% in North America. In North America, it's mostly the consequence of the tariff that has led to a surge in import during the first two quarter of 2025. In Europe, the market is quite segregated between the pooled and non-pooled market. The growth of 7% is mostly triggered by the non-pooled market or the import.
We have as well to keep in mind that January and February was plagued with some difficult weather condition in North America that has impacted, by the way, both passenger car, light truck, and truck tire market. On the specialty side, Beyond Road, so agro, we see a recovery in small machine segments, particularly in Europe and North America. High power tractors market is still depressed at own. Replacement market is recovering slightly in the different zones. The infrastructure market is posting more favorable trend. Material handling is stable. Mining market is growing at a modest pace, with a slight decrease in inventory of mining companies, but it's still growing. The aircraft market was positive over the quarter.
Having this element in mind, as I mentioned, the group posts a stable revenue at a constant exchange rate. The exchange rate is weighing heavily on our top- line, EUR -355 million or - 5.4%. Of which, 70% is coming from the U.S. dollar. First, in term of scope, we have the positive effect of the integration of the Cooley Group for two months, which is offset by the impact of the disposal of our compound line activities to the SIT Group, which explain the very, let's say, small scope effect over the first quarter.
Our volumes have lost 1.4% over the quarter, taking into account the strong growth in the replacement market for the Michelin brand, that was 3%. It's mostly triggered, and we will see the detail later on, by the original equipment market, both in transportation and consumer businesses. Price mix is positive, 1.1%. As planned, the price effect is -0.8%. It's mostly due to the effect of raw material prices adjustments, as raw material prices have started to decrease during the second half of 2025. Mechanically, we have the adjustments for around 30% of our revenue.
As well, some measures that were taken that have started already during the second half of 2025 in order to adjust our competitivity. The mix is positive, +1 .9%. It includes both the very positive, the constant effect of our growth in 18-inch and above, so at the Michelin brand, which now represents 69% of our global volumes at the Michelin brand, both OE and RT for the consumer segment. As well as a positive mix effect between original equipment and replacement markets. Non-tire sales are stable at iso-scope and currency, and the Forex have been already commented. That's the first time that we are presenting our actual figures through our new reporting segment.
The first time that you see the Polymer Composite Solutions segment published separately. I will start by this segment, which is posting 5.1% growth overall, which is basically the only segment posting positive revenue over the quarter. Which demonstrate the relevance of our strategy. Of course, with the help of the inclusion of the Cooley Group, of course, which contribute 10 point to the revenue growth. I will later on do a zoom on this on this business segment. Consumer volume are growing by 1.3%, with a contrasting situation between original equipment, where our volume have globally decreased in line with the markets.
Probably less than the market in China, a little bit more on the market in North America, due to the different fitment and the segment of vehicles where we are present. The replacement market on the other end are very positive, particularly at the Michelin brand. At the same time, we are still losing ground on the Tier 3 segment, both in Europe and North America, and in some element as well in Asia. Tier 2 will post a strong growth over different geographies, including China. The transportation segment is showing it's not a surprise, a stronger decline in volume and due to the contraction of our sales in original equipment, particularly in North and South America. Replacement sales are hosting a positive in Europe and decreasing in North America and South America.
In the specialties, you see a volume growth of 2.5% thanks to mining and aircraft, but as well, stabilizing Beyond Road activity at iso-scope as the disposal of our compound line business is in the scope effect. Despite Beyond Road stabilizing the situation, despite the challenging situation in agricultural tracks and material handling. Zooming now on the higher performance overall at the group level. You see that, 100% of the volume lost is coming from original equipment, mostly equally shared between truck and bus and passenger cars, with a slight decrease in agro.
On the other hand, the replacement volumes are stable with a growth of 3% in Michelin brand and volume lost in the Tier 2 and particularly Tier 3 brands over the quarter. As far as the Polymer Composite Solutions is concerned, we share with you the situation of the market, not by end market, but by product. In the sealing business, we record a very strong performance, and particularly in the hydraulic applications. The coated fabrics and films are growing as well, thanks to business development, beyond the marine application, which is still the main destination market for this product. The belting market is posting a slight growth, particularly in general industrial and aeronautics applications.
On the other hand, the conveyor belt market, so heavy conveyor belt, particularly the ones that are servicing the mining market, are declining, particularly in Australia. On top of that, we have an industrial maintenance in the sites that takes three months instead of one, and that has waited on the performance of this division in this geography. Overall, we are seeing a solid growth in sealing and coated fabrics with a slight setback in conveyors. As we are zooming on this on the PCS activity, I would just like to remind you the figure that was shared during the last Capital Market Day in 2024, and that we have updated. At that time, it was a comparison between 2018 and 2025.
2023, now it's updated with 2025. Basically, you can see two things on this graph. First, 2018, which was the first year of integration of Fenner. It's, Fenner joined the Michelin group in May, 2018. The Fenner activities were generating EUR 820 million of sales, not including Solesis, the medical application activity that has been later on sold and put in a joint venture with a North American private equity company. This activity should, in the 2025 pro forma, represent EUR 1.7 billion. It's a compounded organic growth of 3% and, let's say, a growth generated by acquisition, which is of a similar order of magnitude.
At the same time, in 2018, the operating margin of this activity was 11.5%, and it would have been 15% in 2025. You see as well that the portfolio of activity has evolved over the period. In 2018, two-third of the businesses was mostly conveyors. 1/3 is sealing, 30% or 25% sealing, and the rest was belting. We have now an activity which is much more balanced. Conveyor belt is still a very important activity, but it has been balanced with the growth of the sealing and mostly the coated fabrics and films, thanks to the different acquisition that has been done in the past years.
We are still expecting to close the last of the three deal announced earlier, the Tex Tech company, let's say during around mid-year. Now, looking forward for the full- year of 2026. At this stage, and being after one quarter, we did not change the outlook for the full- year tire market, which is basically stable market, softer in H1 than in H2. And particularly softer in original equipment, both by the way for passenger car and light truck and trucks during the first half of the year versus the second half. For the Specialties, we feel that the market should be around zero, both for consumers and transportation overall, OE plus RT. Specialties should post a slight growth given the positive trend of mining and aircraft.
Again, this outlook is the same that the one we share with you at the end of at the mid-February. Studying potential systemic impact on the demand following the conflict in the Middle East. Now looking to the situation in the Middle East. First, in the areas, we have mostly commercial operations. We employ around a bit less than 100 employees in sales. We don't have any tire manufacturing activity in the regions, and we operate two joint venture in Saudi Arabia, one in which is the Michelin commercial operation and one which is in the sealing activity of our Polymer Composite Solutions, which is servicing the oil and gas industries.
Altogether, the region represents less than 1% of the group sales. We have set up crisis cells very quickly at the end of very early March in order to monitor the situation, follow potential disruption for regional customer deliveries, look for alternative commercial routes to serve these customers and of course, monitor our upstream supply chain resilience. As I mentioned earlier, at this stage, it is very difficult to predict precisely the consequence of the conflict. It will depend on the duration and the extent of the conflict. For the time being, we are working an assumption which is translate in oil price at around $100 per bbl till the end of the year.
So with this assumption in mind, we know one thing for sure is that we'll have to face inflation. You remember that when we start the year, we were expecting a tailwind of EUR 400 million on the raw material. This tailwind will be at least, or probably at least completely, wiped out by inflation in raw material and energy and logistics. We estimate that with the scenario that I'm sharing with you, we should have to be around at least EUR 400 million of additional costs, of which three quarter are related to raw material and 25% related to energy and logistics. Why only 25% of energy? Because half of our energy costs are energy purchase are already secure since the beginning of the year.
That's what we know for sure. What is much more difficult to assess is the potential impact on the demand, on the tire demand. Maybe first on the original equipment and maybe then on replacement. Today, we don't have any sign of slowdown in any market. The more we will progress during the year, the more we'll see risk, particularly if the, if the conflict is not stopping at any moment. The other element, which is as well difficult to anticipate, although we are monitoring it very closely with our crisis cells, is potential disruption of raw material supply. Again, at this stage, we have a reasonable visibility for our supply till the end of June.
Beyond that, it's extremely difficult given the fact that nobody knows how long and how far this conflict will continue. Obviously, it will, all these elements will have an impact on, let me put some pressure on our margin and our free cash flow. The free cash flow is both through the margin, but as well, inflation is contributing to, let's say, the ballooning of our working capital. At this stage, with the structural levels, so the way we manage the operations, the fact that we are vertically integrated in some area, particularly in synthetic rubber, In some other product as well.
The localization of our operations and our proving, proven margin resilience in, let's say recent, similar or very volatile environment. All that lead us to maintain our guidance. Our guidance, I remind, is to generate a segment operating income at iso-scope and iso-forex above the one we generated in 2025, and a free cash flow above EUR 1.6 billion. In this highly volatile and predictable environment, I would like as well to insist on the strength of the group and the fact that we are holding the cap on our strategy. First, we continue in 2026 to launch a new product to further enhance our innovation leadership. Second, we continue as well to work and to improve our efficiency.
In Europe, we have recently announced that we have sold and closed the remaining of our U.K. retail distribution operations for light vehicles. We have recently announced the consolidation of our agricultural track activity factories from two factories to one factory in North America, which lead to the close of one of this factory in order to improve the competitiveness of our operation. Last, I remind that we have maintained our dividend per share for 2025 versus 2024, which lead to a dividend yield of 4.9%. The group has started, with the help of banks, to complete a EUR 750 million share buyback program that has been launched in the second half of February, and that should be executed by the end of November. Having shared all these elements, I think it's time now to open the Q&A session.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please ask your question in English. First question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America.
Yes. Good evening all. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first one is regarding your pricing. Can you please give us more color regarding your pricing strategy? I understand that you basically adopted a more aggressive pricing strategy to boost market share gains, and notably in the U.S. Do you expect overall a negative pricing for the year? If not, how do you intend to increase prices without weighing on volumes? This is my first question. The second question is regarding your expectation for the cost inflation. You indicate at least EUR 400 million that include raw mat, energy, and logistics. What about wage inflation? Is it a gross or net impact post mitigation measures? Basically, what's the phasing of those EUR 400 million cost inflation between H1 and H2? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Stephen, for your question. Regarding the pricing strategy, as you know, I'm not going to comment our forward pricing strategy as there is currently an investigation from the European Commission on that topic. What I can simply tell you is that we have on one side the index business, and I will not comment on it because it's quite mechanical, but it has an impact. I will come back on that. On the other end, we have implement a transformation within the group in order to manage our pricing in a more and more agile manner.
Which lead us sometimes to, even in the same category, to adjust the price at some SKUs upward and some of other SKUs downward. What I can already tell you is that there was already some price increase announced and implemented, for example, in Europe, 1st of May. It has been communicated on the market recently. Because we are already seeing some element of inflation, particularly the energy or the transportation cost, maritime shipping, just to mention it, or even in land transportation. The answer regarding the balance between price and market share and competitivity, let's say, is all is in the quality of the execution by the team.
I believe that since the last quarter of 2025, our team have demonstrated their ability to grow in our market share in, particularly in the replacement market, thanks to a very agile pricing, strategy. Regarding inflation, for the time being, it's mostly energy and raw material that are impacting us. We have not computed any wage inflation at this stage. It's something that might happen in second half, if the situation is worsening. Nevertheless, regarding the phasing, most of the phasing, of course, will be on H2. We are already seeing particularly on element that are going directly in the P&L, such as transportation, the impact of inflation.
Of course, all the elements that are contributing to the production costs, so either raw materials or energy in the production costs. Energy represent 2.5% of our group sales overall. will impact our P&L probably most in the second half. We have four months of inventory, but between raw materials, semi-finished and finished product. Generally, you can count on four-six months lag between the increase of these costs and the inflation in our cost of goods sold.
Thank you. Regarding the gross or net impact?
It's a gross impact. It's a gross impact.
Okay. Did you quantify your mitigation measures?
Of course, we quantify it. What I can tell you is that we are As I said, you can classify our business in two categories. The business which is midterm contract with an index, indexation clauses. There will be mechanical lag effects between the inflation, the increase of cost of goods sold and the increase of price. This part will not probably be fully hedged over 2026. For the rest, it's generally we have demonstrated our ability in the past to hedge our cost.
Thank you.
Next question is from Akshat Kacker, JP Morgan.
Thank you . Good evening. Akshat from JPMorgan. I have three questions, please. The first one on volumes. A very good beat in Q1 versus expectations. Could you just tell us if you are already seeing signs of pre-buys, specifically in March? We have seen some very strong industry data coming out for March. Have you seen any signs of strong dealer buying ahead of those price increases? Are there any signs of selling activity looking different at the start of Q2? That's the first question. The second question is on the trucks business. We can clearly see that the truck market in North America could be inflecting from very low levels, and the comparable look very easy starting from Q2. On the other side, placement volumes have been at high levels. You have high inventories.
How are you thinking about overall truck volumes from here for rest of the year in 2026, please? The last one, coming back to cost sensitivity of the conflict. Is the EUR 400 million number a second half impact for this year? Is that how we should think about it? What have you really built into that EUR 400 million? Is it only the direct impact from synthetic rubber and carbon black, and you haven't considered broader inflation in steel, chemicals, supply chain, et cetera? Just trying to understand the big buckets within that EUR 400 million, please. Thank you.
Thank you, Akshat . For the time being, we have not seen any significant pre-buy over the first quarter in any of the regions where we are operating. We have not seen, let's say, meaningful volumes that can be interpreted as a pre-buy from distributors. That's something that we are obviously monitoring very closely as we are monitoring every month the sell-in and the sell-out, so as well as the sell of our product to end users by distributors. For the truck market, well, it's a bit reflected in the slide that I present for the full year, full year market.
Of course, we will start particularly on OE to compare ourselves with data that were, let's say, at historical low level, particularly on original equipment, since the month of April, May, 2025. As I mentioned, I will comment mostly the original equipment market and particularly the North American, which is weighting heavily on our OE performance. Because we have seen the open market slightly rebounding since the last quarter of 2025. In OE, we consider that although we have seen an increase in the order of new vehicles, we consider that the market will probably need another three to four months to flush out the over inventory of vehicles that has been built up by the OEMs in the past two years.
It's very, very probable that over Q2 and even early Q3, we are not going to see a sharp increase in order of tire by OEMs because they are still selling vehicles that have been produced earlier. As far as the cost and the duration of the conflict, the EUR 400 million are obviously mostly on H2. As I mentioned, we are already seeing some very concrete inflation measures, for example, in transportation. The assessment we did was so at least EUR 400 million, probably EUR 300 million on raw material, EUR 100 million shared between energy and transportation. On the EUR 400 million of raw material, we are looking at all raw materials. So of course, it's synthetic rubbers, a lot of chemical products, resins.
If you look at the cycle data, you will see that the natural rubber prices as well started to slightly increase. We take in consideration all the elements of the different raw materials that we are acquiring.
That's clear. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Akshat.
Next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.
Harry, now your line.
Harry Martin, your line is open.
Maybe we can switch to the next one and eventually, call Harry later on.
Next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Good evening. Thank you. I have a few questions as well, if that's okay. I'll ask them one by one. First is, could you say a few words about your North American business? Last year, you had a horrific Q3, then a much better Q4. In Q1, there's been a lot of weather-related elements or one-off things. Do you see the state of your North American business in the first half of 2026 more aligned with Q4 or Q3 on an underlying basis, please?
Oh, yeah. You want to answer, okay, question by question.
That's okay.
Yeah. No, no, but I can answer to this one first. I will say that Q1 2026 was a little bit in between Q3 and Q4 2025. All the OE market are negative in the U.S. and North America, both for consumer vehicles or professional vehicles. I remind that the replacement market in 2025 was boosted by the anticipation of the tariff. It's still a market which is, let's say, in between the two, the two quarter of the two last quarter of 2025.
Thank you. To follow- up a bit on Akshat's question earlier, could you talk about April trading? I understand March has been a very strong month after a relatively soft start of the year. Like, do we continue to see dynamic momentum in April? Or do you now see any anticipation from dealers of future price increases? Or are they still pretending nothing is happening?
As far as I know, we have not seen a huge anticipation of dealers on a future price increase. When price increase are announced, the magnitude of the price increase is not too huge for what have been announced in Europe, for example. I think I will not comment in April. When we look at our own figures, we have as well to be careful because 2025 in April, we have a difficult momentum in Europe, negative on April.
No. Thank you. Do you have any update to give us on the European Commission China treatment that was delayed from December? Is it still expected Q2? Do you expect any retroactive action?
We expect the antidumping measures to be all announced at the end of the quarter, of this quarter, so the Q2 quarter. We do not expect any retroactive implementation. That's, yeah, at this stage is the information that we have on hand. Yes.
Thank you.
There will be tariff on the antidumping in Europe for passenger car tire probably from July or the end of June onward.
Thank you very much. Yves, happy result.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.
Hi, can you hear me now?
Yeah, it's better, Harry. Yeah, we hear you.
Great.
Yeah, thank you.
Great. Well, thanks for taking my question. The first one, as you mentioned, historically, Michelin's been able to pass on raw material costs without major EBIT impact. I wondered why this time would be any different. I'm thinking if you see any differences in price premiums, market positions, mix, that we need to be aware of or whether, you know, if it all goes well, you should at least be able to recover a good amount of the inflation over time. The second question I had in the release, you talk about expanding market share in the 18-inch and above segment. I'd like to hear some more color on which markets, you see those share gains coming in, which vehicle types, what price points within, 18-inch and above, you know, you're having the most success there will be useful. Thank you very much.
Okay. Regarding our ability to pass the raw material effect in the EBIT, we have as always to keep in mind that we have this lag effect for the index business, which play negatively when raw material prices are increasing and positively when it's stabilizing or decreasing. That's the first element that you have to keep in mind and, so we will probably not fully compensate the full effect of inflation, at least on raw material in 2026. Some part of it, at least for the index business, will be to recover in 2027.
The difference versus past, if you mentioned, for example, what happened after the war in Ukraine, at the start of the war in Ukraine, is probably that we are now already at a high level of raw material prices versus the situation we had before 2020. Remember after 2020 price went down. There was some cooling down of prices in the end of 2024, 2025. The question is the ability of the market to accept the level of price that this kind of inflation may come in. That's the question more on the affordability side. Regarding our market share gain in the consumer segment, particularly in the 18-inch tires.
On the replacement tires, I want as well to share with you that we have as well gained market share in some segment below 18-inch. In terms of market, it covers, let's say, mostly all the markets in Asia, in Europe, maybe in a less extent in North America. When you speak about the vehicle, if I take the Chinese market, it happened that I was in China last week. We are quite successful with local OEMs and partly with electric vehicles. That's where we are gaining market share, particularly for the OE market.
Thank you.
Next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Yes, good evening. I have two questions and thank you for taking them. The first is, I know it's difficult to answer, but during the last call, the company anticipated a slightly positive volume trend overall in the second quarter and there's still a light growth for 2026. I know it's difficult to answer as the macro scenario is evolving, but are you still confirming a positive volume trend for the second quarter and BPS? Maybe if you can give us some flavor across consumers, transportations and specialties, and if you are still confirming positive growth in volumes in 2026. My second question is on Polymer Composite Solutions.
I admit I do not very well the segment, but what is the company ability in passing through the raw material cost increases in these divisions? Any insights could be helpful. The very last is just a check. Can you split again the EUR 400 million of gross headwinds between raw mat, energy and other items? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much, Monica. I will take your question in the last order. The EUR 400 million of headwind following the war in the Middle East is 75%, so around EUR 300 million in raw material and EUR 100 million between energy and transportation costs.
Okay.
Regarding Polymer Composite Solutions, we are in businesses except for the conveyor belt, where the weight of the raw material in the production cost is far lower than the weight of raw material in the production cost of tire. Of course, if there is inflation at the companies that are operating the different business will, depending on the respective weight, because it can be very different between a sealing, a small belt or heavy conveyor belt. They will have to adjust their strategy, but it's really a local and let's say local product related operations. Regarding volumes. Of course, the beginning of the year and after the two first months, we were on track to deliver a slightly positive volume in 2026. We have announced that Q1 will be negative, Q2 probably around flattish, and Q3 positive. Well, there is.
Okay.
Mention it in your question, it's very difficult to answer. On one side, there is element that are in favor of, let's say, confirming potential volume growth over the year. It's the fact that in Q2 and Q3 last year, we have suffered, particularly Q2 in Europe, Q3 in North America. We are going to have a basis for comparison, which will be v ery, it's more favorable.
Favorable.
On the other end, nobody knows at the moment I'm speaking, what will be the impact on the final demand, transportation, mileage driven by consumers when they have the sticker shock of the price of gas oil at the station or even the impact that the price of kerosene can have on the and even the availability, potentially. At this stage, I'm not in position to comment the impact of any of these elements on the final demand.
Perfect. Thank you very much, Yves.
Thank you, Monica.
Next question is from Martino De Ambroggi, Equita.
Thank you. Good evening, Yves. The first question is on the supply chain, the raw mat and so on. What are or where do you see the main risks for your supply chain today? Could you remind us what is the updated sensitivity to oil price, butadiene and natural rubber? I have another follow-up later.
I will probably give you a very generic information. Geographically speaking, we are expecting more tense situation of the supply chain in Asia than in Europe and than in North America. It's rather in this order. As I said, it's very difficult to decipher where rupture can occur and how. Looking at our. Last year we buy around more than EUR 5.5 billion of raw materials, of which 29% is natural rubber, 22% synthetic rubber, and 21% fillers. Fillers is black carbon and silica. The rest is shared between chemical products, around 15%, steel cords 9%, and textile.
That's basically the different source of our raw materials. Of course, there is a direct sensitivity on the oil price. Some of the products we are using are just derivated from the long oil transformation value chain. That's probably where it's most difficult to assess. We know that when the butadiene price is increasing or the synthetic rubber prices are increasing, there is an indirect effect on the natural rubber because some manufacturers might switch from one nature of rubber to another depending on the prices. I will not, I will not try to give you a magic formula of translating with starting with a $1 per bbl and translating in EUR 1 million of raw material cost. Keep in mind as well that we are a global company. All the raw material are priced in dollars, in USD, the underlying currency in the USD.
We are purchasing in euro, RMB, Thai baht, and as well Brazilian real and USD. There is as well an effect on the currencies in our acquisition cost.
Okay. Okay. A little complicated. One housekeeping question. I remember in the previous call you mentioned that raw mat tailwind EUR 400 million that today you are telling us, they are erased by inflation, cost inflation. In the previous call you also mentioned that the cost inflation was in the region of EUR 200 million. I'm unable to match the figures, if probably the cost inflation is much higher than EUR 400, starting from the EUR 200 that you commented, or I don't know if I remember correctly, the EUR 200 million at the beginning of the year.
No. At the beginning of the year, the assumption was the following. We were expecting a EUR 400 million tailwind from raw mat and the EUR 200 million headwind from other inflators, everything including salaries in some regions, energy, transportation. Now these assumptions are still valid. On top of that, we are going to get a EUR 400 million tailwind, headwind, of which EUR 300 million is coming from raw materials. You can say that if it's confirmed, the net effect on raw material will be EUR 100 million versus last year. Another EUR 100 million come on the energy and transportation. The net effect of cost inflation outside raw material should be around EUR 300 million.
Okay. Okay. Now it works. Okay. Thank you, Yves.
Thank you, Martino.
Next question is from Michael Foundoukidis, ODDO BHF.
Yes. Hi. A few questions also on my side. I will ask them one by one as well. Maybe first on the volumes, some clarification because I'm not sure I understood correctly what you said. You don't change your market scenarios versus what you indicated at the beginning of the year. Even you kind of upgrade them when we look at the charts. I mean, some of the charts, both in OE and replacements seem a bit higher than where they were in February, which is a bit puzzling me, especially on the OE with S&P cutting estimates from flat-ish in February to -2 now. How to reconciliate that and how to reconciliate also the view that you're saying in the Middle East slide that you expect more negative, I mean, negative tire demand, but still, you don't change at your market scenario. That's the first question.
Yeah. Michael, we have not changed our outlook globally in term of market, both for consumer and transportation.
No, I see the -2 +2 are the same, but some of the charts, I mean, where the points are higher. Even if we say that it didn't change, why doesn't it change despite you are indicating that the Middle East issue will have a negative impact on volumes, and you also saying that you cannot commit anymore on the Q2 volumes improvement?
What I said is that the hypothesis that we share with you in detail, the one that is in the slide 13, has been built without taking into account the potential systemic effect on the Middle East conflict on the final demands. For the time being, till the month of March, we have not seen a very different market picture than the one that we described at the 2025 yearly disclosure.
Okay. guidance still embeds a slight volume growth at this point?
Yes, slight.
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay. Then maybe a question on pricing and for Q2. Probably indexation clauses will remain negative in Q2. Do you think that replacement prices increase that you mentioned in the call are sufficient to let's say offset them and lead to break even on the pricing side? Second question on that side too. On the mix side, do you expect to maintain this around, let's say, 2% for the full- year?
On the indexation clause, I will not mix the indexation clause that we are seeing, that we have seen in Q1, that we've seen in Q2 that are due to the price of raw material of the second half of 2025. We are going to probably see indexation tools playing the other way in the very late part of the year because of raw material price increasing now. That will translate later on in our cost of goods sold. I will not mix that with the increase on the replacement market, because again, we try to have fair price policy, so I'm not trying to overcompensate one market by the other.
I mentioned very clearly that the overinflation triggered by the situation in the Middle East, that is impacted, that will impact our cost of goods sold on the, our index business in the second half will not be fully recover by price adjustments because there is a timeline in the, like, in the application of the tools. Regarding the mix, the mix was quite strong in the first half. It will depend on the, let's say, the weight of the recovery of the original equipment volumes. As we can expect a slight rebalance between OE and RT, maybe we'll have a slightly lower mix effect in the second half.
Okay, thanks. Maybe a last one, more general to better understand your guidance. Since February, I would say that volumes are probably more negative than you assumed. Cost obviously are also. How do you offset that in your guidance? I mean, probably pricing, of course. That's the number one. Is it only that? Is there anything else that we should have in mind to offset all those incremental headwinds that you have, or was 2026 guidance in February very, very cautious? Thanks. That's the last one.
Yeah. It's, well, so your assumption is that, well, of course the volume can be less positive in the second half than what we were expecting in February. We are going as well to offset that by strong cost discipline. As I mentioned at the end of the presentation, you know that we have implemented in the past two years one of the largest restructuration plan that the group has ever implemented. We continue to work on our cost structure. We have downsized our distribution retail operations in the U.K. for light vehicles in February. We continue to work on improving our footprint. What we can say as well is that probably.
But any new?
Oh, wait. Oh, yeah.
Any additional restructuring since February or any measures that you would add?
We announced, as I said, in February, we announced the closure, the sales and the closure of our retail distribution network in the U.K. for light vehicles.
Yeah.
More than 100 point of sales. We recently announced two weeks ago the closure of one factory for agricultural tracks in the U.S., and the merger of this factory with another one. Transfer of the activity to another one, which is in a nearby area. On top of that, what we can say as well is that our volumes and our mix have been better in the Q1 than what we were expecting early February.
Okay, thanks. Very clear.
Thank you again.
Last question is from Ross MacDonald, Citi.
Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question, just on the mix benefits, obviously quite strong in Q1 at + 1.9%. Do you have any guide, Yves, you can give on the overall mix contribution for the full- year 2026? What sort of drop through we should assume for that. It looks like on channel mix, tier mix and obviously segment mix are all positive here. How should we think about the overall mix benefits revenues this year? The next question, I'm sorry to come back to the net price versus raw mats.
If I take a step back and just look at the bridge from last year, basically, the headwind was really on the raw mat and logistics side and obviously price mix and volume kind of offset each other. If I think about my bridge for 2026, and let's leave price mix and volume to one side, what is the message here, Yves, in terms of the aggregate raw mat headwind and the manufacturing and logistics headwind? How much do price mix and volume need to be positive to offset that to hit your guidance? If I understood correctly, we're basically wiping out the raw mat benefit for 2026, and we have roughly EUR 300 million of manufacturing and logistics.
Maybe if you could just split both of those buckets in terms of your assumptions for 2026, then I can work back how much price mix and volume need to be to offset that. A final question. Obviously, oil is continuing to rise. We have the tariffs in the U.S. Sounds like industry pricing isn't moving up too much. How do you think about value over volume strategy in that context? Is there a benefit to Michelin going after some of the lower end volume in the U.S. to protect volumes and fixed cost absorption this year? Just be curious how you think about leaning on your budget brands to maybe shore up some of the volume this year. Thank you.
Maybe I will take the, your question in the reverse order, Ross. Starting with the last one. Overall, you know that the weight of the raw material and the energy costs and the transportation cost is respectively lower in premium brands or premium products than on the entry products, in budget products. Except if there was a massive, let's say, tear down market effect, generally this kind of situation is more favorable for premium manufacturers, like us. The cheaper brand that are mostly imported from Asia will have to be, first, being in Asia, they are probably impacted by inflation faster than in North America and Europe. On top of that, they have to bear the extra cost of the transportation.
That's my first point. Regarding the net assumed net price raw material versus in your bridge of 2026, as I said, at the start of the year, we're expecting the EUR 400 million tailwind on raw mat. Now we know that we have at least a EUR 300 million headwind, which is coming from the event in the Middle East. Net is still EUR 100 million tailwind. On the cost of energy and other inflation, we are betting on EUR 200 million on inflation, on which we will have to run the EUR 100 million coming from the impact of the Middle East conflict. Last, regarding the mix.
We have a strong mix, but if you look over the past years, we have a mix effect that are generally translated around 1.5%, just move around 1.5%. We are at 1.9% on the 1st quarter. I believe that a reasonable assumption for the full- year at 1.5% is probably the most relevant assumption that you can take.
Thanks, Yves. Maybe if I can squeeze one more in just on the, on the cost inflation point. Obviously, your analysis, it looks like the chart begins sort of late March, which would make sense. Would that imply there's maybe a further EUR 150 million, let's say, cost headwind into early 2027? I know it's still very early in 2026, but how should we think about the cost inflation that carries over into 2027 based on your analysis? Thank you.
For sure. If the situation is lasting further, there will be a carryover on 2027. Let's take the situation quarter by quarter. Nobody knows. I've not looked at the news today, when the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened. I think I will not make any speculation, let's say, beyond beyond one quarter.
Thanks, Yves. All the best.
Thank you, Ross. I believe it's the last question. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention. Our next meeting is scheduled with the shareholders meeting on the 22nd of May. I would like to take this opportunity of this last quarterly call on my side to thank you for your attention and to thank you for the very stimulating exchange we had in the past eight years. Thank you very much, and I wish you a good evening. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.