Okay. So, ladies and gentlemen, sorry for this interruption, which was due to a technical problem out of our reach. So I was commenting on Slide 3. So we have seen in the Q1 a sharp decrease of the road market both in passenger car and light trucks by 15%. In trucks, 17%. And specialties have been a bit more contrasted with some sectors that have been heavily impacted, such as aviation, and some domains that are more resilient, such as surface mining and agriculture replacement. In this context, our sales have been down by 8.3%, reflecting a contraction of our volume by 11.7% on the quarter, but by 21% on the sole month of March. I remind you that, for example, in Western Europe, most of the countries went to isolation to lockdown from mid-March.
We have been held by a 2% price-mix effect, which is mainly mix effect, and a 1% net increase in our scope of consolidation, mostly due to the first-time inclusion in Q1 of Multistrada and Masternaut. Facing the crisis, the group has implemented strong measures to mitigate the financial impact of this crisis. First, we have shifted to a weekly monitoring of our supply and demand management and our inventory management. We have decided to reduce our capital expenditure for 2020 by EUR 500 million. We have proposed; we will propose to our shareholders' meeting end of June a reduction in the dividend to be paid by EUR 333 million. We have decided to suspend the share buyback program, except for the firm commitments outstanding for 2020.
Of course, we are reducing overhead costs in the different areas of the company. In this context, as I said earlier, we are not able anymore to provide any guidance for the market. We have focused our attention on managing the liquidity of the company. We have conducted the stress test with different hypotheses, going from an overall decrease in volume by 20%-35% for the full year. In both cases, in all the cases, the group has sufficient cash and cash equivalent position to go through the crisis, to weather the crisis without drawing down our backup lines.
Moving more in detail about the markets, you see here, particularly for the passenger car and light truck segment and the truck segment, the evolution worldwide is by regions and by months because we believe it was important to show you how the market has behaved over the period. You see, for example, that during the two first months of the year, the market was slightly decreasing in passenger car by 6% in January, 13% in February, mostly pulled down by the China effect. China was in the middle of the crisis at that time. Of course, the effect in March on European and North American market has been much more pronounced, respectively, -24%, -22%. You observe the same phenomenon in the truck business.
And last, we can mention that you see the slow recovery of the market in China in March, both for passenger car and light truck activities and truck activities. On the specialty side, as I said earlier, some markets, such as construction, aircraft, are heavily impacted, or agriculture only. But some markets are more resilient, and particularly the surface mining and the agricultural replacement market. So during the quarter, our sales have been down by 8.3%, landing at 5.3 billion EUR. Positive perimeter effect, 59 million, 1%. An important volume effect, minus 11.7%, which weighed heavily on the turnover of the quarter by 677 million EUR. And the price mix effect, 2%, 117 million, of which 1.9% is a mix.
The price effect being neutral, taking into consideration that, due to the fact that raw material prices have been oriented downward for the past few months, we have implemented, of course, cost-plus adjustment prices, cost-plus for the market where we have such cost-plus. And we have been able to hold firm on our pricing in the other activities. And we have a slight currency effect, mostly the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of, mostly South American, currencies. Looking at the evolution quarter by quarter, I would not focus too much time on this slide, just to mention that, if you look on a longer period, five quarters, the group is able to generate, on a regular basis, a two-point price-mix effect, which demonstrates the firmness of our pricing policy, and the strength of the Michelin brand.
Looking now at the sales per segment, so you observe for SR1, so automotive and distribution associated , a decrease in sales by 7%. In a market that has been down by 15%, our volume has decreased by 10.5%. We have been able to outperform the market due to the market share gains in 18-inch and above, on original equipment and the replacement market. On the SR2, our sales have been down by 12% in the market that has been down by 17%. Here also, our strong price discipline has allowed us to partially mitigate, very partially mitigate the volume effect.
And on SR3, our sales have been down by 7% thanks to the solid price mix and the resilience of, particularly, the surface mining market and the replacement market, taking into account that other specialty tire segments, such as construction, aircraft tires, original equipment for agriculture, have been impacted by the crisis. So in this context, we took initiative in order to limit the impact of the crisis on our segment operating income and our free cash flow. These measures are described on the right side of the slide. So as I said earlier, we moved to a weekly monitoring of our business. We have decided to cut capital expenditure by EUR 500 million, reduce the dividend by EUR 330 million, suspend the share buyback program, except for the firm commitments taken in 2020.
We have implemented cost reduction program, postponing unnecessary expenses, freezing wage increases, except, of course, in regions where commitments have been already made earlier in the year. We are holding very firm on our pricing policy and trying to benefit from the mix of markets. Of course, we will try to benefit from the raw material price impact. On the other end, the stress tests we have conducted were based on the hypothesis, two hypotheses. We have, of course, taken several hypotheses, but let's say in the range of -20% to -35%. As you can see in both cases, with a very strong impact on the first semester. In the first case, we estimate that our volume can be down by 32% on the first semester and only by 10% on the second semester.
So it will lead to another whole volume effect of 20% over the year. Even in a worst-case scenario, with -42% in H1 and -27% in H2. In this context, given the strength of our rating, we have looked at our ability to go through the situation, and we will not need to draw on our confirmed backup lines in both cases. As presented during our 2019 annual results, you have here the maturity of our debt in the future. You observe that, of course, we have the 1.5 million backup lines that should not be necessary to use. We don't have any major repayment from our bonds program before the first half of 2022.
As of yesterday, the group was holding EUR 2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. We believe that we have the resources to go through the scenarios that we have presented to you earlier. The group has the treasury on hand, but also we have been able, thanks to our both long-term and short-term rating, we have been able since March 1st to issue around EUR 1 billion in commercial paper with an average maturity of 7.5 months, which is the demonstration of our credibility on the commercial paper market. As I said earlier, in the call, we are not in a position to provide any guidance for the market. We are monitoring the situation week by week. It will not be relevant to present a scenario that we consider as standard for 2020.
I just would like to share with you some data or proxy that can reflect on, let's say, advanced indicators that can reflect on the situation, so you see week by week on the left side in terms of road transportation the activity generated by the customers that are using our Effitrailer offer and that's their weekly mileage, so you see clearly the drop in the second half of the month of March, and on day 100, which was the second week of January, the road traffic regarding this category of customer is today estimated at 77%. On the other side you see also relative to the production of our factories, tire factories in China, based on the 100 base in the second week of January, which was a few weeks before Chinese New Year.
We have just recovered the similar level of activity in the past week after the drop that you have seen earlier in February, end of January, and, of course, during the month of February. So as a conclusion, I would like to say that the group is facing a very severe crisis whose duration and impact is still uncertain. We have adapted our steering to the situation, and we moved to a very more agile steering of our activity with first the focus on the essential, which is protecting our teams and, of course, safeguarding the liquidity of the company. We have made these stress tests, which demonstrate our ability to wade through the crisis.
and of course, during the next disclosure, which will be at the end of July, we should be able to share with you more detailed scenarios for the full year. So thank you for your attention. And I think we have now time to take some questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero and one on your telephone keypad. So we have a first question from Martino De Ambroggi from Equita SIM. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you very much. The first question is on sensitivity. You have presented a stress test with - 20%, 35% of volumes. Just to have a rough idea, very broadly, what is the level of declining sales guaranteeing a break-even at operating level? Just to have a rough idea in the current environment.
And the second question is still on the stress test. If you present -20%, -35%, is it because -20% is the base case scenario that we should take into account, or it's just a financial exercise?
So thank you, Martino. Regarding the second question, I will let you answer yourself to the question. As I said, we are in such a volatile environment with a crisis whose duration and impact is extremely difficult to assess. The profile, for example, of the lockdown and the way countries are exiting the lockdown is very different. We have seen, for example, in China, very contrasted situation from one region to another. So we cannot draw a conclusion from what has happened in China between February and March and project it on the rest of the world.
So that's why we are present, and we will not go beyond what we have presented this evening without, let's say, giving a new guidance. Regarding your first question, we have shown you these two hypotheses that are a little bit severe impact. Just to remind you, in 2009, the group volume had decreased by 14%. So just to give you the kind of consider that we have taken scenarios that are extremely severe, in order to reflect a crisis that the group has probably not seen since the end of the Second World War.
All right. If I may just follow up on the pricing. Aren't you worried about the risk the discipline could disappear in such a crisis?
We don't know. We are not worried. We have a policy.
We have on one side long-term contract with some customers with raw material cost adjustment, and we are applying it. On the other hand, we continue to stick to our policy that has, I think, demonstrated very strong results in the past years to all forms of our pricing, thanks to the quality of our product, of our offer, and the performance of our product.
Okay. So we have another question from Gaëtan Toulemonde from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, Yves. I have a few questions. I'll try to be very quick on each of them. When you mentioned that you expect a higher volume drop through on the volume effect to the operating level, traditionally it's approximately 40%. What is the guidance you are giving us? Are you 45%, order of magnitude, or worse than that?
The drop through is, of course, very, it's more difficult to assess in such an environment because, of course, we have fixed costs and variable costs, but there are steps in our variable cost, so we consider that the drop through will be higher than in a, let's say, traditional circumstances. When you have volumes like in March dropping by 21%, the drop through is not. If in the past you used to consider that one point of volume was around, let's say, EUR 100 million or EUR 110 million, you have probably to add around EUR 20 million when you are, let's say, seeing such a scale of volume effect.
Okay. I think that's pretty clear.
So maybe, Gaëtan, to complete, we have also taken into consideration that operating a factory with the virus still being a threat around us means that you have to implement social distancing measures to provide the protective devices to your employees, and it has a cost.
Okay. That's very helpful. Now, against that, you probably have savings on transportation, marketing, G&A, raw materials. I've done my own estimate on raw materials. I end up with something like EUR 350 million. Is it something? I know there is a lag effect and so on, but is it something which makes sense? You mentioned in your statement that you expect some overhead cost saving. I mean, it's only one question, but can you help us to offset a little bit the negative volume effect with different measures just to get an idea to do proper estimate?
Yeah.
So first, we have been present on that side because we have, for example, taken the decision very harshly to stop our European production mid-March. You have to know, for example, that some of the raw materials that have been delivered end of March or in April have been ordered earlier during the year. I'm thinking about natural rubber. You have at least a three-month lag, at least for Europe and North America. So it means that you know that there is a lag between the time you purchase the raw material and this raw material is translating in the cost of goods sold. That's why we have this prudence. Regarding the G&A, honestly, we are adjusting our monitoring week after week, and it's probably too early to provide you detailed figures. We will do it during the Q2 presentation.
You have also to take into consideration that, in our G&A, we have sometimes provisions for doubtful accounts receivable. And we are in an environment where we have seen early this year the bankruptcy of a retailer in Germany, with potential consequences on this parent company in Italy, so we are also present on that side.
Okay. I think you want me to attend the first half results presentation. My last question. You help us on the gross cash position, but I know it's just revenue. Is it possible to get an idea of the net debt situation at the end of March, April, or whatever, compared to the end of last year, which was EUR 5.2 billion?
It's not too far from last year.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.
There's another question from Kai Mueller from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my question. I think the first one, basically on your volumes, you, you said don't translate China into, into the European market. But maybe, you know, we're almost through, through April now. What is sort of your first experience, you know, with the European and North American market? Is it almost a complete write-off, or is there still some sales that are happening, that you see through, through some outlets? And then do you think, you know, as soon as May gets back, how do you see that, curve developing? And I think, in particular with regards to the fact that I think a, a couple of, consumers are still driving on winter tires and possibly do that switch over then on the delayed, stage than before. That's my first question.
And then the second point is, you know, you've now showed obviously the tire, or the driving activity has obviously come to a halt under the lockdown. Have you got any indications possibly also from your dealership networks when we start seeing a pickup again? You know, there have been talks about people using private transportation more frequently versus public transportation, that that could help with regards to your volume pickup in the second half, that driving activity drives that. And then as a last question is, can you just give us a color again? You obviously said aerospace going, airline businesses going down. How big is that in your SR3, just so we have a bit of an idea how significant the impact could be?
Okay.
So for the first question regarding Europe and North America, it depends on the countries. Some countries have applied lockdown measures more severely than others. If I take a country like France, the dealerships that were still open were mostly some dealers that were servicing B2B activities, such trucks because as you have seen in the presentation, there was not a complete collapse of the truck business, because trucks have to deliver goods and particularly for the cities. What we observe also is that it seems, but it's very early, it seems that after the reopening of some countries, I'm thinking about Germany last week, of course, people are exiting from the lockdown with the winter tires, so they will have, let's say, a very short time frame to switch back to their summer tire.
So it might trigger some peak of activity there, but we should be very prudent. On the other hand, you have, in some countries, and I'm thinking about North America, a lot of people that have been laid off, so who are probably going to tighten their belt and be very cautious about discretionary spending. Regarding the activity on the dealership networks, one of our first priorities is to help our dealers, franchisees or partners, to operate within this COVID-19 threat, so with the right level of sanitary measures that will bring back customers in their point of sale because consumers have to feel at ease and to feel safe to go.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a little technical problem, so we are going to continue the Q&A session.
Please, for those in the Q&A, please, you have to dial again zero and one on your telephone keypad, please. Okay. So next question. So we have a next question from Thomas Besson. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, Yves Chapot. It's Kepler Cheuvreux. I would start with a question on mix, please. Can you comment on what you anticipate for the full year in terms of OE/R eplacement mix, knowing that these lockdown periods effectively affect as well replacement more than in normal downtimes? My second question is about 2021 versus 2020. Can you comment both on the flexibility you have in terms of CapEx? You've talked about cutting CapEx by EUR 500 million this year. What kind of CapEx do you need in 2021? And it goes along with what kind of volumes do you expect versus 2020?
So, if you were to see - 20% or - 35%, would you expect to recover a large portion of that in 2021, or would it take two, three, four years? And last question, there have been several acquisitions in the last three years. Is there a risk that we see a relatively large write-down on some of them at the interim stage? Thank you.
Okay. So thank you, Thomas. The OE/RC mix will be most probably favorable. Anyway, in any, let's say, major crisis situation, people will have a tendency to postpone the purchase of new vehicles, either for professional or consumers, but they will continue to invest in their existing vehicle. We expect a mix that should be favorable from this standpoint. Regarding 2021, honestly, we have not yet looked at this market, the market hypothesis.
We have taken measures to reduce our CapEx in 2020. Based on the scenario we have for the time being, we will update it during the coming weeks and months. For 2021, we'll try to continue to manage in a very agile way our capital expenditure in order to be able to reinitiate some important projects if the market were rebounding faster. At that stage, it's probably too early to build a vision on 2021. Regarding your last question, we have made some acquisitions in our universal registration document. There is a description of the different IAS 36 tests that have been done. We have some, let's say, material headroom for most of the cash-generating units in the different cash-generating units of the company.
And we'll, of course, re-update these tests at the end of the semester, but mostly at the end of the year to take into consideration, of course, the potential reset of 2020 on the market. But also, we'll wait because we'll need to be able to rebuild long-term hypotheses that are today extremely difficult to rebuild in such a circumstance.
Yeah. Thank you very much.
Okay. So we have Kai Mueller back for the question. You have the floor, sir.
Hi. Yes. Sorry. It's me again. We went through the first question, but then I think I dropped, basically as soon as you were answering the second. There were two parts. The one was the tide amount in terms of pickup and driving activity.
If you think there is some validity to that because we've heard a couple of companies talk about it. And then the second one was, in that second half, on your price mix, you obviously said it's a bigger benefit. Can you give us some sort of magnitude we can work with for your price mix versus volume, to get a sense of that magnitude that you're expecting?
Yeah. So for the last point, the price mix should be positive. You see the price mix effect over five quarters, knowing that, as I said, we have the impact of the raw material crisis, which raw material price decrease had an impact on the contracted business, where we have raw material cost adjustments, which represent a little bit around 30% of our total sales.
But overall, we have been able, you see, on average to generate a 2% price-mix effect if you look at the five last quarters. Regarding vehicle mileage, we are monitoring our business unit in charge of these activities, monitoring the traffic in a lot of cities. So we are seeing a very contrasted situation. We are comparing year-over-year, week-by-week, the evolution of the traffic. For example, the traffic in cities such as Seoul or Singapore was, I think, around 30% or 40% of the traffic it was last year, during some weeks of March. And, contrary, the traffic in Barcelona was at less than 10% of the same traffic same week of last year. So we are very prudent. There is, of course, some behavior that has been mentioned, particularly in China, mentioning that consumers tend to prefer individual transportation means, because of the, let's say, health risk.
But we cannot make such a generality over knowing that, for example, in some countries, companies and governments will continue to promote working from home for the people that can who can exercise their activity without going to their factories or working premises.
Okay. Thanks. And the magnitude of the EBIT impact on that volume mix versus price mix, if you're willing to share anything.
It will be positive over the year, but we have this stage in the beginning. It's given that it's a quarterly disclosure, we don't enter into this level of detail.
Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks for taking me again.
Okay. We have another question from José Asumendi from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, sir.
Hey, sir. It's José, J.P. Morgan. Just I wanted to go through your assumptions on volume down 20% for the year or 35%.
Do you think you can generate cash first half and second half in both scenarios? That'll be the first question. Or if you could comment on a full-year basis, your confidence on generating cash on both scenarios, and if you could, you know, specify also for the first half. Second question, can you talk a little bit about around working capital? How much of an inflow could it be in 2020? And if you can, please take us back to the last financial crisis. What happened with working capital? And you know, if you could share any of the magnitudes there. Thank you.
So thank you, José. The two scenarios have been really conducted to assess our ability to manage the liquidity risk of the company.
So at this stage of the year, we are not going to disclose the detailed impact on the ROS, segment operating income or free cash flow. Regarding working capital, I think this crisis is pretty different than the last one, where we have a rather extremely positive working capital effect, in the sense that there are mainly two elements to manage. One that can be in our hands, which is inventory. The other one is, of course, the situation of the customers and the risk to have a peak in overdues in accounts receivable. So that's why we have, without entering into the detail of the stress test, we have taken, we believe, a very quite conservative and prudent hypothesis, regarding potential risk on both customers that might have to go to bankruptcy or look for protection such as Chapter 11 or equivalent.
Of course, the increase of overdues, which is at this stage where we are still at the beginning of the crisis, particularly for Europe and North America. We have not seen a huge, let's say, impact for the time being in China. We have preferred to take prudent assumptions regarding working capital, particularly looking at the receivable part.
Thank you very much.
We have another question, Henning Cosman from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, Yves. Good evening. It's Henning from HSBC. If I may, I still think I haven't completely understood your scenario analysis, whether you think you actually realistically end up between the - 20% and - 35%, or if this is really just a stress test. Right? That's my first question. I think that's not really clear to many people.
If I do take the -20% and -35% and assume the EUR 130 million drop through you mentioned earlier to Gaëtan's question, I end up with a volume-related EBIT shortfall year over year between EUR 2.5 billion and EUR 4.5 billion. Considering what you said about price mix versus raw material, I'm just wondering if you're really uncomfortable with the current consensus level of EUR 1.8 billion. I guess it must be difficult to bridge with a negative starting point of EUR 1.5 billion after volume. So if you could just sort of help me understand if you want to outright dismiss the current consensus level or if there's a remote chance to get into that region. Finally, if I may, we were all quite hopeful, I think, for the new savings plan.
I know you were executing the restructuring plan of your predecessors, and 2021 was going to be the first year of the new savings plan. So is it possible to comment a little bit on whether you think it's still going to be possible to pursue what you were hoping for, or if that's going to be a lot more difficult from what you're seeing today?
So I thank you, Henning. The first question, it's purely a stress test. It's a liquidity stress test. And that's. It was the only purpose of this presentation to share with you that the fact that the group has the means to weather the crisis. Well, regarding your assumption, I will let you comment, and it's not my role to comment the consensus.
So I will let you do your own math, based on your own assumption of the market. Regarding the last question, the saving plan, we are executing the plan that we have announced end of 2018 and during the course of 2019, as we have planned to do it.
Okay. If I may follow up, just very briefly, so you there is a possibility that your volume will be less negative than - 20%. Yeah?
Honestly, I'm not able to provide you what we call central assumptions, market assumptions for 2020, given the extreme volatility. Hypothesis can change from one week to another.
If all European and North American countries are exiting through the lockdown smoothly and there is no other peak of the sanitary crisis, it might be better. If the crisis duration is longer, it might be worse. So honestly, it's far too early to give you a central scenario.
Okay. Thank you.
And we try our best. We try to do it during the Q2 presentations.
I understand. Thank you.
So we have another question from Victoria Greer from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Can you hear me okay?
Yeah. Yeah. Hello, Victoria.
Thank you. Hi there. I wanted to ask a bit more about what you're seeing from dealerships.
You know, you talked obviously about some bankruptcies that had been happening, you know, even before all of this, and obviously, they do all work on very thin margins. You know, what is your conversation going on right now with the dealers around restarting? And also, what is your conversation on pricing? And could you talk a bit about what you think the inventories are like at the dealer level, and around where replacement volumes in North America and Europe are tracking in April? And then secondly, I just wanted to ask a bit more around detail on trends in specialty. I think I asked earlier about the trends, obviously, on the airplane tire side. You know, unsurprisingly, I guess that is that's down very sharply, but mining seems to be holding up a bit better.
Could you talk us through the differences in those markets? Thanks.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, Victoria. Regarding what we are seeing from the dealership, as I said earlier, a very contrasted situation. First, we are trying to help our dealers to resume their operations and to resume it safely in order to provide consumers confidence that they can have their vehicle and their tire maintained in healthy and safe conditions. I have mentioned the bankruptcy of one operator in Germany earlier this year. We have exchanged with some customers, which are facing liquidity risk. We have a discussion with each of them in order to see how we can work together through this difficult period.
Regarding inventories, maybe except in some European countries where there was end of last year a little bit of winter tire inventories, we have seen overall distribution destocking over the past months. So we believe the inventory situation is pretty healthy at distributors. Lastly, for specialties, as I said, we have, if I look at the mining activity, surface mining in some regions, it's also very contrasted. The mines are shut down in South Africa, but it's considered as a national interest in Australia. So we can have very contrasted situation from one region to another. We mentioned the aircraft tire division. Of course, all commercial airlines are mostly stopped. Most of them are stopped. I think the traffic is less than 10% than it was a year ago. Nevertheless, we have some other activities.
I'm thinking about, we are providing tires to the air forces in some European or North American market, which are a bit more resilient. Agriculture, I mentioned, is still, particularly for replacement, is decreasing, but far less than the original equipment or than the construction business.
Then do you have any information now on where replacement volumes are tracking for April in North America and Europe?
We have, we start to have a guess on our own figures, but it's, we don't have any market figures. I think it will not be the time to disclose t his kind of data.
That's right. That's fine. Thanks very much.
So we have another question from Ashik Kurian from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. I just have one question there.
Just keen to get your thoughts on how maybe in the few months or quarters post, as we come off the lockdown, the market share in Europe and North America is going to develop, partly because one would expect the imports to maybe not be in great supply. Plus, with all these dealers that you are helping, the ones that have liquidity crisis, one would assume that they previously had a higher share of imports. So is it the expectation that in U.S. and Europe post these lockdowns, maybe we should see an increase in market share of players like Michelin?
Yeah. I'm not sure. We have a bit of a hard time to understand you, Ashik. I'm sorry, but well, regarding the market yeah?
Can I hear you a bit better?
Yeah. Yeah. It's better.
I'm sorry. I was just yeah.
So I was just asking whether you think your market share for players like Michelin will improve post these lockdowns because, one, the availability of imports or the willingness of these dealers to buy imports might be less. Plus, with all these dealers that you're helping out, trying to restart over their liquidity crisis, is there a chance to grow your market share?
We strive to grow our market share. The market, the customer will decide. And we have good reason to believe that being close to our partners will be rewarding one day. We have been helping very actively, for example, our Chinese TYREPLUS dealer to resume their operations. And it seems that we have slightly gained market share in China, but we shouldn't cannot draw a conclusion across all the market, the segment, and the geography from this example.
Let me just follow up. I mean, you kind of commented that for FR2, even in these lockdowns, there is going to be some demand. Is there a ballpark figure in terms of, like, what percentage of the replacement market do you think will still would be needed during these lockdowns so that we can gauge what the flow in terms of the FR2 replacement demand in Europe and North America can be?
It's very difficult. We provide you. I just provide you a snapshot, for example, for our Effitrailer offer in Europe, where you see that the mileage driven in the very recent weeks were around 77% than it was at the beginning of the year, so it gives you an order of magnitude.
but of course, it's evolving, week after week, knowing that, on the other hand, the original equipment market is more severely impacted.
Thank you. Okay.
Thank you, Ashik. Maybe a last question?
Yes. We have a last question from Gungun Verma from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. It's Gungun from Goldman. I have one question left, please. Just want some clarification on the mix. So when I look at mix for first quarter, it at 190 basis points, it's almost double the run rate that we've observed in the past few quarters. Just trying to understand if this step up is perhaps due to regional mix or has the mix structurally improved. And if so, can we assume this 180, 190 basis points run rate to carry forward for the rest of the year? Thank you.
Thank you, Gungun.
In fact, the mix is in fact it's threefold. There is original equipment replacement mix, the market mix, which has been favorable. We have also the mix between the different LBs, the business lines within the SR3, within the specialties, that has been rather favorable because of the resilience of the surface mining market. And of course, there is a product mix. And just as an indication, our share of 18-inch and above tires in SR1 has continued to grow by two points versus 2019 during the first quarter.
Thanks. That's helpful. And so when we think about the mix going forward, of course, like the regional mix will reverse, but you continue to gain share in 18 inches and above. So can we assume this run rate to continue, or would we see more normalization in the quarters to come?
It is a bit difficult to get because the balance between original and replacement markets can move along the year. So that, we believe that the overall price mix effect, we have seen an overall effect of 2%, which is basically the average of the past five quarters, so can be, let's say, a relevant hypothesis. But you have taken consideration that there is one aspect of the mix that we do not master at all, which is the original equipment and replacement markets behavior.
That is clear. Thank you. All the best.
Okay. Thank you very much. So I would like to thank you for your listening of this conference call. I apologize for the technical issue that we have encountered with our provider.
And I would like also to send a message to one of your your community, Gaëtan Toulemonde, who has been following the Michelin share for a very long time. I believe, although he made the mention that he might want to come back to our semestrial presentation, it will be probably the last time he will attend a conference, Michelin conference, as a senior analyst and a very experienced analyst. Thank you, Gaëtan, for the way you have followed us and challenged us over the years.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for your participation. You may now.