Ladies and gentlemen, thank you, and welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very happy to share with you our group sales figure for the third quarter of 2023, and update you regarding our full year guidance. So as you have probably seen in the presentation and in the press release, our sales are up 2% at EUR 21.2 billion despite subdued volumes and Forex headwind, supported by our mix enhancement, our non-tire activities, and our brand and technological leadership. The market for the first nine months are shaped by the inventory drawdowns, particularly in Europe and North America, for passenger car and truck tires, particularly, and also beyond road tires.
So if we look overall, passenger car and light truck tire market are stable overall at the end of the nine months, with a robust original equipment demand in most regions, slightly offset by negative replacement demand dampened by the stocking in Europe and America. The demand for 19-inch and larger tire is still expanding, and we consider that inventory level are back to normal in most regions, except for winter tires in Europe. Truck tires outside China dropped 5% due to the substantial dealer and B2B fleet inventory reduction. Both in Europe and North America, original equipment demand is still robust, and of course, the destocking is impacting the replacement market, and we estimate that the destocking should be over by the end of the year. Specialty tires markets are dynamic in mining, aircraft, and in original equipment for agriculture tires.
They are softer in construction, replacements for agriculture and of course, two-wheel tires. Non-tire markets are up in most segments, both in fleet services, mining, energy, and stable in general industry applications. Our sales are up by 2% at the end of the nine months. And if you look at the different effects, first, Q3 sales are stable, excluding the currency effect, but if we look overall for the nine months, the volumes are down by 3.6%, reflecting mostly the market destocking and our group priorities on value creative segment. The price effects stood at 6.2%, confirming the recognized value for our product and solutions, and the impact of price indexation clauses from 2022.
The mix effect reached 1%, reflecting our position in the 19-inch and larger passenger car tire segments, and a favorable geo mix, partially offset by an adverse original equipment replacement market mix across businesses. Non-tire sales are up by 13% at constant exchange rate, fueling the group growth. And we are seeing a negative currency effect of 2.6% year to date, 5.5% for the sole Q3. We continue to grow around and beyond tires, and the growth in polymer composite solution will accelerate with the end of September closing of Flex Composite Group acquisition that will drive higher our group sales from Q4 onwards.
To come back on the 2023 guidance, we confirm our guidance regarding the segment operating income, and I will come back at that at the end of the presentation, and we revise onward our guidance for free cash flow. When we look now at the market, the selling market, you will see that they were above our estimation for passenger car and light truck, and below our estimation for truck tires during the third quarter. At the end, passenger car and light truck tires market is slightly above 2023, and 2022, sorry. And the truck and bus tires are far below 2022, -5% in average, of course, excluding China. Looking now at the bridge of our sales from 2022 to 2023, year to date.
So we have a slight scope effect of EUR 79 million, a negative volume effect at -3.6%, which weighs EUR 750 million. A strong positive price mix effect of EUR 1.5 billion. Altogether, it's 7.2%, 6.2 being, which being price effect, and 1% the mix. Non-tire businesses are contributing for 0.6 point, and the currency effect is negative at 2.6. So we are landing at EUR 21.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. Looking now only at the third quarter sales, you will see that they are down 5% versus last year. Outside the currency effect, I mean, in a nutshell, volume is neutralized by price mix.
So the sales are stable at constant exchange rates, and of course, the quarter has been penalized by the currency. You have to keep in mind that Q3 2022, for example, the U.S. dollar was at its peak versus the euro. Overall, if we look, practically all the currency, except the Brazilian real, depreciated against the euro during the third quarter of 2022. When we look at our sales by segment, you will observe that year to date, SR1 sales are up 3.6%, of which the volume is minus one. The segment is, of course, impacted by a strong negative Forex on the third quarter.
But we have sales growth are embedded price effect and product mix enrichment, which is more than offsetting the effect of the distribution destocking. And we are, of course, benefiting from market share growth in 18-inch and above tires. That are now accounting for 50%-60% of the Michelin brand tire sales for the first nine months of the year, up five points versus the first nine months of 2022. The truck tire sales, so SR2 sales, are down by 4.3%. So the sales are obviously penalized by a lower volume, mainly from replacement markets, impacting by the destocking and distribution, and an unfavorable original equipment replacement mix. We have positive embedded price effect and double-digit growth in service to fleet.
The third segment is up year to date by 5.4%. The sales growth is driven by embedded price effect and dynamic aircraft and mining activities, but unfavorable comparison basis for mining in H2, which recorded its higher performance during the third quarter and the overall second half of 2022. Beyond road activities are focusing on value creative segments, waiting on volume, but improving margin. And our high-tech materials sales are up 13%. I want also to draw your attention that this segment is the most impacted by the currency effect, as it's probably the business segment which is the most exposed to the USD.
Before moving to the full-year guidance, I would like to come back to some of our fundamental competitive advantages. The first one is our leadership, technological and brand leadership in high-value and increasingly demanding market segments across the different business segments. If you look at the first segment, passenger car tires, we have actually, we are accelerating in 18-inch and above segment, fostered by electrification. We are recording 12% growth year-on-year. As I already said, 60% of our Michelin brand sales, OE and RT, are now 18-inch and above tire, improving by five points versus 2022. But if you look at the progression since 2015, it has been impressive.
Overall, this will continuously contribute to a sustainable accretion in our mix impact that we can estimate at around EUR 1 million per year. On the specialties, we are winning where we are able to create value for our customers. In 2023, we have seen the launch of the first radial tire for the world's largest loader. We are growing sharply in agriculture, both in trucks and in high power tractors, which represent the 50% of the agriculture market tire in value.
Looking at the transportation segment, our focus on our role to play on the most demanding customers, both from a geographical but also the business segment, which represents the three business segment illustrated on that slide, which represent 50% of the market value, will contribute to the recovery of the SR2 segment of income in the quarter to come. This leadership is also recognized by the press and by the test. Looking at recent publication regarding all season and winter tires, Michelin offers both the CROSSCLIMATE 2 and the CROSSCLIMATE 2 SUV, as well as the Pilot Alpin 5 SUV, has been recognized in most of the tests.
Shown on that slide as the leader in their category, with sustainable performance and the balance of performance between the behavioral performance on the snow and dry roads, along with a strong performance in terms of endurance and abrasion. Electrification is also a key opportunity for the group. We are a natural leader with our premium BEV, thanks to our technological edge, that has been recognized in the ADAC study published in December 2021 and updated in April 2022. All Michelin tires are already meeting the EV requirements. In 2023, in the first nine months, we have seen the number of the BEV models with Michelin shipments increased by 28%.
Our market share in original equipment is two times higher for BEV premium versus the original equipment total market share. And with Michelin is an attractive choice on the replacement market, considering the strong loyalty rates on our brand and our specific value positioning. And we estimate that by 2026 this should translate in replacement in probably more than 5 million tires to be sold, and above 10 million tires by 2028 on the replacement market worldwide. And last, I would like to come back on the Flex Composite Group acquisition. The closing has been done on the 27th of September 2023. It's a strong steps towards Michelin's ambition to become a key player in polymer composite solutions.
During the first weeks of this integration, FCG has been combined with our existing assets in the coated fabrics to create a composite fabrics and films business lines. We have already realized EUR 2 million in synergies from refinancing FCG debt. From January 2024 onwards, we should see the first synergies, both on the cost side, the insurance contract, for example, but as well on the first cross-selling synergies. In 2023, besides, of course, the acquisition cash out of EUR 700 million, FCG should contribute to the group sales on the last quarter by EUR 50 million and to our EBIT by EUR 12 million. Moving now to the guidance.
As we are entering the last month of 2023, we are generally narrowing our hypothesis, particularly on the market scenario. Overall, we are betting that 2023 will end with a slight market improvement in passenger car and light truck tires, which is reflected in our range of +1/-1 versus -3 to 0 in last July. And you see that we are expecting OE H1 2023 growth to revert in H2 on higher basis comparison, mainly in China. On the other hand, replacement market proved to be resilient and more resilient than expected in Q3, mainly in North America. On the truck market, we have seen that during Q3, we overestimated the market evolution.
We consider that, although original equipment should remain robust, despite a few supply disruptions, replacement market demand will be soft, remain soft during the Q4, with some additional discounting actions. So altogether, we believe that the market should land in a range of -4% to -6%, by the end of the year. And regarding specialties, we are approximately in the same range that we were previous expectations. Strong demand in mining tires and aircraft. Two wheels is penalized by a high inventory level, mainly in the bicycle. And beyond road, with the constructed evolution between original equipment and replacement, both in agriculture and construction. So all these elements lead us to consider that we should end the year with the volume effect of roughly -4%.
Cost inflation, that should be between EUR 0 and EUR 200 million. But the net price mix versus cost inflation factor, which will remains strongly positive, and the cash out CapEx, which is unchanged at EUR 2.2 billion. Taking all that in consideration, we confirm our segment operating income at constant exchange rate, guidance, which will be above EUR 3.4 billion. We have upgraded our free cash flow forecast, which was previously above EUR 2 billion, and that should be now above EUR 2.3 billion. Mainly, based on the fact that, we have a lower volume than expected, so that should improve the working capital consumption, and as well as a lower cost per unit in our inventory valorization.
On top of that, you are aware that in 2023, there was some one-off in our free cash flow, such as the cash back we received from our joint venture, TBC, following the disposal of its retail division. I would like also to take this opportunity to come back on our capital allocation policy. So you are probably aware that the group has initiated a consultation on October 19 in Germany with our labor unions concerning the three industrial sites. We have received a question about the potential impact of the scenario envisaged on our net income. First, I would like to make it clear that the consultation between Michelin Germany and its social partners are going on, and that no decision has been made at this time.
At the same time, so it give me the opportunity to come back to be more specific on our capital allocation policy. As you know, we have communicated in the past our policy on dividends in order with the objective to gradually achieve a payout ratio of 50% of net profit. Year-on-year, the net profit is impacted by different kind of non-recurring events that are impacting the net income up or down. As for example, last year, we had the negative impact of the Russian exit and the closure of our Russian operations. We have also positive impact such as the one I mentioned regarding the return of capital from our joint venture on TBC.
But these, these, non-recurring events are not reflecting any material change in the intrinsic performance or value of the company, which is recognized through the segment operating income. So, if these non-recurring events were to have a significant impact on our net profit, outside of course of a systemic crisis, of course, we will take steps to ensure that they do not cause the value of the dividend to fluctuate too much. So we stick to our policy of going towards 60% payout ratio, that will, along with our, with the advice of our supervisory board, we will propose to the shareholder meeting, and smooth evolution, which might be independent from the fluctuation of non-recurring event impact in our net profit.
So having shared with you this guidance, we can now open the Q&A session.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Please ask questions in English. The first question is from Martino De Ambroggi with Equita. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. My first question is on prices, because, if I remember correctly, in your last call, Yves, you mentioned that prices were expected to be flat in the second half. So I was wondering if you could confirm it, considering Q3, they were up 2%, so that means they should start to become negative in Q4. This is my first question. The second one is on the Forex effect in the operating profit guidance, because also for this, if I remember correctly, you mentioned the EUR 200 million negative impact in the second half of the year, following EUR 61 million in the first half, but this was based on the Forex rates at that time that you disclose it.
The third question is on the slide number seven, because you are presenting a mixed impact in excess of EUR 100 million at EBIT level. I suppose this is referred to the past few years, but my question is if this could be an impact also foreseeable for the next few years. If I understand correctly, this comes from the 18 inches and above contribution. Thank you.
Yeah. So maybe I will start by your last question, Martino. We expect this a bit the mix effect to continue in the years to come. If you look in the past, we have an incremental improvement of 18-inch and above sales at the Michelin brand of between three to five points per year, which translates it is EUR 100 million. Of course, you cannot read it directly in our P&L or in our bridges, because in the mix, don't forget that you have other effects linked to for other business lines, OE RT market mix, and of course some geographical mix effect. But I can confirm you that we consider that it's, let's say, mix improvement should continue in the years to come.
We look year after year at the fitment that we are awarded in original equipment, and we can see that the fitment we are currently being awarded for vehicles that will start production in 2025 or 2026 is still improving. Regarding the overall price effect, so you are right on the Q2 or Q3, we have an overall positive price effect of around 2%, 2.1% exactly. Which is linked partially to the price increase we implement first of January, but also from some, let's say, indexation clauses. And we consider that in Q4, price effect will probably be flat versus last year.
The full year Forex effect, and we have already mentioned that, it should be negative on the second half of the year. It has been, I don't know what will be, the dollar value, in the last two months of the year, but, we knew already that, USD was at its peak in August and September, 2022. So the Q3 has seen probably the worst of this negative effect. And, if the different currency were stable from where they are now, we can estimate that by the end of the year or early 2024, this Forex effect will probably flatten.
Okay. If, if I may, if I remember correctly, you mentioned EUR 200 million at EBIT level, negative in the second half. This is what I was referring to.
Yeah, yeah. That I can confirm this figure for, I mean, if we look at our forecast we did in July regarding the Forex, we are still in line with this forecast.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Giulio Pescatore with BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. The first one on the mix expansion. I was just curious to know, how much do you think of the mix expansion of the last year was driven by the mix of the market improving, and how much has been driven by you gaining market share? And as we look ahead, how much of the further expansion do you think will be driven by the share of 18 inches and 19 inches growing in the market? And how much do you expect to be gaining market share within that premium space? The second question on raw material cost. We have recently seen raw material prices once again move upwards. Do you see scope for further price increases and if this trend should continue?
Maybe one last question on the guidance. I mean, given the assumptions you are making, it does appear that the 3.4 is fairly, fairly conservative. Can you just maybe share what expectations do you have for volume drop-through in the second half, and maybe the same for mix, please? Thank you.
So maybe for the mix expansion, we are. I can confirm you that we are gaining market share in 18-inch and above since 2017. We are constantly overall gain, but steadily gain market share. How much it represents in the overall mix impact on the EBIT? Honestly, we don't look at that. We don't segregate between the market on one side and market share gain in the gain in the EBIT improvement. Raw material costs they are up and down. Butadiene is rarely down. The natural rubber was probably at one of its lowest, but a slight rebound. And let's say all related materials are fluctuating.
For the time being, we have not see any, let's say, reason for further price increase. But, if at one stage we, we see that, raw materials are further increasing, we will of course, contemplate it. Regarding the SOI guidance, maybe you have not completely read what we wrote, but, we don't say 3.4, we say above 3.4. So, So I don't think given the, the overall market context, that it's a conservative, guidance. We are pretty at ease with the, with the, with the consensus at this stage.
Okay, very clear. Thank you.
The next question is from Jose Asumendi, from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Couple of questions, please. I was wondering if you could go back a bit to the volume guidance within SR3, and explain a little bit more the trend that we saw in the third quarter, the full year guidance on volume in specialty, and what you're expecting for the fourth quarter. And then the second question, completely unrelated to, you know, to calling cycles, et cetera, which I think is quite difficult to do. Can you maybe explain what are the biggest improvement actions or efficiency improvement actions you're taking across SR1 and SR2 to improve the profitability on a 12-month view? Thank you.
Volume guidance, first, we have, I have mentioned that, when we look at, when we compare year-on-year, we have to be careful because in the mining business, for example, at its record sales during the Q3 of 2022. So, although volumes were pretty high, because don't forget that, yeah, I should come back on that, on 2022, during Q3, it was the moment where there was the unlocking of the bottlenecks, for example in maritime shipping, which translates for us in significant exports from our North American and European manufacturing bases. So the comparison versus last year is on an unfavorable basis.
We know that, also nevertheless, this market as well as original equipment for agriculture, for example, and the aircraft market are growing positively. On the other end, there is some markets that are depressed, such replacement for agriculture and construction. The construction industry being heavily penalized by the rise in interest rates. If I look at the in Europe, the slowdown in the number of opening of new construction sites and buildings and housing. Profitability improvement drivers in SR1 and SR2 is concentrating on value creative segments. So it's mixed effect and of course, working on the competitiveness of our operations, both from a manufacturing standpoint but also sales, general, and administration costs, as we did in the past.
We are continuously working with our teams, leveraging also technology such as artificial intelligence, and improving, let's say, our operations.
Thanks.
The next question is from Sanjay Bhagwani, from Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my question as well. I have two questions. Firstly, the follow-up to Julio's question. So if I understood it correctly, the guidance for greater than EUR 3.4 billion is conservative, and you are comfortable with the consensus, current consensus level, which is somewhere around, I think, slightly over EUR 3.6 billion. Related to that, on the others line item in the EBIT bridge, how should we think about that, given the upgrade in the free cash flow guidance? So that is my first question.
And second one is on if you could provide some early impressions on 2024, like, how should we think of some of the key, key items such as volumes, price mix, raw materials, particularly for the volumes, given that SR1 seems to be inflecting now. So would you say that the destocking in SR2 is finishes in Q4? So any, any such color on 2024 will be very helpful. Thank you.
So I will, I will return on the, on the answer on your first question, on the answer I already gave to Julio. Our guidance is a guidance above threshold. This threshold for EBIT, that's three point four billion, and for the time being, we are comfortable with the consensus. Regarding the free cash flow, you understand that there is some one-off or let's say a little bit of reverse effect of what happened in 2022? In our free cash flow, particularly the impact of inflation on the working capital and particularly on inventory. On top of that, we have been more agile in managing our inventory over the year.
We are confident in our ability to land where we were expecting to land in terms of inventories volume by the end of the year. I will not come back on the dividend policy. I mentioned we are committed to gradually increase our dividend up to 50% payout ratio. While looking at our net results by including one-off effect on non-recurring effect, in order to have a smooth evolution of the dividend instead of up and down linked to the fluctuation of the net results, which is again influenced by some non-recurring effect. Well, regarding 2024, it's a little bit early, and I will invite you to join us on the twelfth of February next year.
But we believe that inventory de-stocking in SR2 should be finished by the end of the Q4. And we hope that in Europe winter inventory will also be de-stocked by distributor. 2024 should probably be, we probably see a better balance between the original equipment and replacement markets in favor of the second, what I can share with you. And regarding inflation, it may be a little bit too early to say. We have not yet seen any surge in energy or raw material prices that is alarming us at this stage. But we are closely monitoring all the inflation factors in order to maintain and improve our margins.
Thank you. That's very helpful.
The next question is from Michael Jacks with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I just have two. Firstly, just going back on the guidance, you reduced your volume guide by around two percentage points versus the midpoint from two to -4, -2 to -4, which I guess at a 45% drop through equates to around a EUR 250 million headwind to operating income. And at the same time, you cut your cost inflation guide to around a EUR 100 million, or it's a EUR 100 million better than expected. So on a net basis, I guess that would imply an EBIT deterioration of around a EUR 150 million versus your expectation at the first half earnings. Is that a correct way to interpret this, or is there another moving part here that I'm missing?
Well, I'm not sure I fully follow your calculation. We have for sure, maybe a slightly less optimistic landing figures regarding the volume. Take also into account that, if we look on the first nine months, we have further reduced our production than our sales, so it weighs on our fixed cost absorption. On the other hand, our price effect and the impact of raw material and inflation is improving, if I may say, versus our Q2 end of Q2 expectations. So all in all, these effects are compensating each other.
Understood. Thank you. Second question, on the truck segment, you flagged ongoing de-stocking through Q4. Volumes are down significantly versus 2022 levels, but it would still appear that replacement tire market levels are still trending quite, quite well above pre-COVID levels. Do you have any view on whether or not this level is sustainable, or could there potentially be a further normalization in this segment?
Well, for the time being, we are not seeing, looking at the sellout, let's say dramatic evolution in sellout. We are looking at ton transporters or gas consumptions, depending on the market and the regions. So although there was some slowdown in some areas, but overall, we don't see a drop in sellout as the drop we have seen in selling for the first nine months, particularly in replacement market in Europe and North America. So that's true that if we look at the truck and bus tire market outside China, it's still slightly above 2019, I think, and it's mostly driven by original equipment.
Take into account that in the original equipment for truck, there is some effect due to change in regulation, and particularly new norms that are going to be implemented starting from January 2024. That has an effect on the sales on the new vehicles in 2023. So that's why next year we rather expect a mix between OE and RT that will be in favor of replacement.
Understood. One last question, if I may. Can you perhaps just be a little bit more explicit for the second half of this year on what the likely impact in the EBIT bridge is likely to be, from the bonus, performance bonus accrual? Especially given that you've now raised the cash flow guidance, does that now mean that the performance bonus element is going to be even higher than what was expected?
It's included in our forecast, so it's taken into account in our guidance.
All right. Thank you, and you can't give any, sort of indication on what the other line item, in the EBIT bridge is likely to come out at for H2?
No, because in the other line item, there is, of course, the bonus that you mentioned, or the variable pay, but there is also other effects. Sometimes some are compensating each other. But at this stage I can tell you that we have taken into account all these effects in our forecast, and therefore, in the updating of our guidance.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Michael.
The next question is from Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions as well. It's not a lot left, just would like to come back to your Q4 pricing comment. You said Q4 pricing is likely flat. Due to the indexation in OE, OE should be down, so I take it the replacement it should be positive still in Q4. Could you comment if that is the case across the regions or also products? And then also related to pricing, do you see any competitor currently trying to use pricing as a tool to improve their volumes, at least to some degree in premium? Or is the selling rate still so low that in the end even if you would try to use pricing as a tool, there is not much to gain, and hence everyone is still very rational?
Thank you.
So I believe that, you know our position. I don't often comment about our competitors, but there's probably not much to gain in playing with prices in a need-based market, and given the dynamic between selling and sell out. I forgot, I'm sorry. Yeah, the first part of your question, sorry, I forgot it.
No worries. That was just on your Q4 pricing comment.
Yes, on the pricing. Yeah, sorry. Yeah. So, well, we have first our index business. We don't have exactly the same costs because we don't have exactly the same raw materials, depending on the category of products. Some costs are updated every quarter, some every half year. So and don't forget that first of January, we have increased our price on the replacement market. So all in all, we consider that Q4 price effect should be probably flat or very close to zero.
Thank you. And one brief follow-up, if I may, just on your comments that destocking probably is done by year-end. Do you see dealers probably accelerating the ordering a bit because of the volatility in the oil price? Or is it just a normalization of inventories and more or less back to normal?
I think dealers are, with interest rates rising, more prudent. They have accumulated probably too much inventories when price of tires were increasing quarter after quarter, and where there was also some scarcity in the market. On top of that, in some regions, I think, some dealers have been burning their fingers with the tier three and tier four tires that were flowing during the second half of last year, and particularly during the Q3. And they have a painful journey to, let's say, reduce their inventory, because at the same time, the same products were arriving, which were ordered later during that year. The same products were arriving in their respective market at lower prices.
We believe that the dealers are now more rational. They are trying, and particularly with the if we look in Europe, with the winter season that we have known last year, with the mild weather that we had up to now, I think dealers, they are very prudent in the replenishment of their inventories.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. The next question is from Thomas Besson from Kepler. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, it's Thomas at Kepler. I have a couple of questions, please, that will deviate a bit from the revenues, because I think we've gone into a lot of details already. So the first one would be on your plans for CMD next year. Could you confirm that you still have one and indicate what we should expect in terms of content? Is it fair to expect new midterm targets another date of your 2030 vision during this CMD? That would be the first question. And the second, I think it's clear that you anticipate pricing to tend towards zero by the year-end.
We've seen price mix in 2023 sufficiently strong to help you compensate not just for the small increase in raw mats, but also help you with wage increase and energy inflation. When we look at 2024, when we look at 2025, where it seems that we may have again relatively higher inflation than we had for a long, long, very long time. Do you think it will be possible for you and your peers to keep offsetting part of this wage and energy inflation through price mix? Or do you think you'll have to find other ways to offset it? Thank you.
Okay. So maybe I will start with the second part of your question, Thomas. So of course, we have seen benefits in 2023 from also the price lag of the index business. And in 2024 and 2025, we will, if we have to deal with inflation, find a way to translate it in our pricing. As we need to pass through these additional costs to the market. And you can trust us as we have been pretty consistent in the past year in the way we manage our price across all the different businesses.
Of course, besides the price, we—I mentioned the mix effect, that from which we could benefit in, particularly in SR1, probably a slightly positive, rather positive market mix effect, as 2022, as well as 2023, has been impacted by a very negative, if I say, original equipment volume versus replacement. So we should see a rebalance of these two markets in the next two years. So that's probably. And on top of that, we continue to work on our competitiveness.
Regarding the CMD next year, the idea is, of course, to share with you the outcome of the first three years of our 10-year plan that we have shared in 2021, and to open the door for the following three years till 2026. On top of that, we would like also to spend some time in order to better illustrate, because it will be we will host you in our research and development center in Clermont-Ferrand, in order to better illustrate with you the group capabilities and how we will unleash our R&D capabilities in tire, around tire, and beyond tire.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Ross MacDonald with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Good evening. Given we've touched on a lot of the revenue line items, maybe I could jump back to slide seven on the mix comments. So firstly, just curious around this 12% CAGR that you're commenting on in high value tires. Do you see that growth profile as fairly consistent over the coming five years, or is that back-end loaded in terms of the growth in high value tires? And maybe if you could just comment on strategically how the group is positioned in terms of machinery and the need to do more CapEx and retooling to capture that growth market.
Second, final question. Just curious on this EUR 100 million sustainable mix benefit from higher value tires. Are you making any assumptions within this guidance around the replacement cycle for electric vehicle tires? Or is this purely based on the margin profile of higher value larger inside tires? Thanks.
So I will answer first to the second part of your question, is, as you are right, based on the margin profile on 18-inch, 19-inch, and 20 and above inches there in our global sales. Of course, it's partially driven by electrification. But it's becoming difficult to sort out, particularly in the replacement market, the volumes that are ultimately fitted in an electric vehicle versus on the ICE. We know it perfectly in OE. It's much more difficult. It's more on, let's say, a hypothesis that we can do on the replacement, except for the OEMs with whom we are selling marked tires.
Regarding the growth in high value segments, it's of course driven by our performance in terms of our product performance. The fact that we have invested over the past years in equipment in order to have our factories able to produce these range of tires. And that every new capacity that we are installing, such as the one we recently installed in Mexico, for example, are all capable to produce up to 22-23 each, if necessary. And we continue, of course, to invest in our factories to upgrade our processes in order to improve both our ability to build the tires needed by the market, but also to improve the performance, the intrinsic performance of our offers.
Thanks, Yves. I guess if I could ask that first question slightly differently. You don't see significant upside to the current level of CapEx in 2023, moving into 2024, as being necessary to capture this, this growth market in terms of, retooling? That be fair.
No, if there is area where we continue to grow our CapEx, is everything which is related to the decarbonation of our value chain, both in term of energy, but also in term of the materials that we are using to build our tires. You know that we are committed to increase our share of sustainable materials, either biosource or recycled materials, up to 40% by 2030. We are coming basically from 25% a few years ago. Last year, we're already at 30%. And if necessary, we continue to invest in order to to weigh this this ratio.
As decarbonation for us is not only a question of energy, but it's also a question of the materials that we are using to produce our tires.
Thank you.
Next question. The last question, sorry, is from Pierre Quemener with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Pierre, it's your turn.
Pierre Quemener, your line is open.
So maybe it was the last question. Okay, so maybe we can end the meeting there. So, Ross had the last question, and I am. Thank you for your attention, and we'll be happy to meet with you on, if I remember well, the twelfth of February for our full year disclosure. So thank you very much, and enjoy your evening. Bye-bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.