Nexans S.A. (EPA:NEX)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2020

May 7, 2020

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to the Nexans First Quarter 2020 Financial Information Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today's conference call, Mr. Christopher Guérin. Nexans CEO, please go ahead, sir.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating to this Nexans Conference Call. Hope you and your families are keeping well and keeping safe in these very exceptional times. I am Christopher Guérin, CEO of Nexans. With me are Jean-Christophe Juillard, Group CFO, and Aurélia Baudey-Vignaud, Head of Investor Relations. We are calling you directly from our Paris headquarters. I will turn over to Aurélia, who will go over the conference call rules.

Aurélia Baudey-Vignaud
Head of Investor Relations, Nexans

Thank you, Chris. I would like to remind participants that statements made during the conference call, which are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Readers and listeners are strongly encouraged to refer to the disclaimers, which are an integral part of today's press release, along with the audio replay and transcript of today's call that will be posted on our website, nexans.com. I now turn you over to Chris, who will go over the First Quarter 2020 highlights.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, Aurélia. So before we go through the highlights of the quarter, let's start with the current environment on how Nexans is managing this unprecedented crisis, taking all measures both to protect our employees and our stakeholders while maintaining continuity of production and supply chain. This is quarterly result. Normally, we don't have any presentation, but because of this exceptional context, we have a presentation for today's call. So I will refer to page 3 of the presentation, and I will let me guide you through this few pages with JC. On page 3, so the Executive Committee of Nexans and all the committees of the company turned into a crisis mode since more than 8 weeks. To set a mitigation plan, we were supported by the daily monitoring that we set up with our Chinese team since the 15th of January, beginning of the crisis.

Three months later, none of our 900 employees in China have been contaminated, and all our operations in China are back to the level of production of 2019, since the first week of April. The five main pillars of our crisis team are the following. Of course, the first one is workforce protection. The second one is supply chain and operation stabilization. The third one is customer engagements, priority prioritizing on serving our top 3,000 customers that make more than 90% of our total revenue. Fourth pillar is about liquidity liquidity preservation and financial modernization. And the last pillar is, of course, communication, external stakeholder information on hard- hardwire flow that we have put in place during the crisis with the board of directors.

Thanks to our strict internal contract process, anticipative actions identified with our Chinese team, plus all employee engagements across the world on trade union support, the group deploys sanitary measures across all units while maintaining, all along the crisis, production continuity. We have as well taken a set of decisions in the last week that you have seen. To sustain operation and demonstrate social cohesion, a premium of EUR 750 per month for frontline workers was set in European plants. The top executive of the group agreed as well for pay cuts between -15% to -30%, during the time of the crisis, as well as the board of directors and the chairman of the board. On March 24th, 2020, as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, the restrictive measures undertaken by government affecting business demand, Nexans suspended its guidance for 2020.

Of course, an update will be provided as soon as the situation firms up. Another decision that has been taken that you have seen, the board of directors has decided not to propose at the next annual shareholder meeting, which is next week, the payment of a dividend for the year 2019. In regards to operation, now moving back to operation, our plants across all geography witnessed no major disruption due to either material shortage, supply chain disruption, or union obstruction. None of them have faced any major disruption. And as of the end of March, 90% of our plants were open and operational. Now moving back to the communication of today, which is our quarterly result. Standard sales were up EUR 1.56 billion in the first quarter 2020, representing a flat organic growth against first quarter 2019.

As you can imagine, because of the impact of COVID-19, we have a very strong variation sector to sector, either talking about automotive harnesses, representing 8% of our total sales, or telecom infrastructures, all that has been as well strongly impacted. We will come back to it, but to other segments that have been not at all impacted by COVID-19, namely high voltage on renewables activities. As you can see, in the press release, the high voltage project segment posted 56% sales growth in Q1, driven by sound cable production and as well very strong cable laying activities without any disruption in that business. I will let Jean-Christophe later go on all the details business by business regarding this overall situation. Let's now turn to page four. Just wanted to highlight with some few pictures before talking about financials of last week's information flow of Nexans.

As you can see on the left part of the page, all the ground blocks for the cable laying vessel, Nexans Aurora, that will be ready for next year have now been assembled at the yard, as you can see on that picture. Of course, it's, we are, waiting, this, vessel to operate in 2021 with, a great pride. On the health and safety side, let's keep in mind that our first and foremost priority, more than ever, is the health and safety of our employees. Our health and safety team roll out all around the specific protocol that our employees are respecting in order to protect themselves themselves and avoid the spread of the virus. And we want to give you very transparent information regarding the situation of COVID-19 within Nexans. Only 26 Nexans employees have been tested positive COVID-19 out of a total of 26,000 employees so far.

More than 50-100 actions have been set per unit to protect our team since January from China crisis, on March in all over the rest of the world. Let me thank all our team for their engagement, discipline, and vigilance under such outbreak. As I mentioned before, none of our 900 Chinese employees have been contaminated so far. We have been able to provide, since the beginning of the crisis, more than one million masks and gloves to all our units. As well, in a gesture of support to local authorities, hospitals, and doctors, more than 30% of them has been given to our communities by our teams, everywhere in the world. We've as well supported in top priority customers that required our product to supply to produce specific equipment for hospitals.

You can see as well on the right side of the page pictures that we have taken two weeks ago from our Chinese operation. You can see Julien Hueber, Executive Committee member, which is in our plant in Suzhou, which is now running full speed. I will now let Jean-Christophe comment on the sales per business. JC?

Jean-Christophe Juillard
CFO, Nexans

Yes. Thank you very much, Chris. Now I'm turning to page 5 of the presentation. Despite the COVID-19 crisis that started to impact Nexans mid-March, the Group consolidated first-quarter sales did not suffer, with stable organic growth versus Q1 2019. In fact, January and February were strong months in most businesses that more than offset the sales slowdown in China that happened starting February. The first strong impacts of COVID-19 on Nexans businesses started mid-March in Europe, where all businesses were significantly hit except the High Voltage segment due to the nature of the business and the location of our main plant in Norway, area less impacted by COVID than Central Europe. Let's look in more detail at the sales Q1 performance by segment of business, and I'll start with the Building and Territories business. First, Building.

Building started the year 2020 on a strong note in Europe and North America, but with COVID impact in China in early February when Nexans plant was closed for two weeks, then mid-March the COVID crisis impacted sales first in Europe and in the Middle East, then in North America, while Asia was really on the recovery mode. On the territory side, utilities, sales were resilient in Europe and South America, at the exception of Brazil and Peru, and but sales in Lebanon were also below last year, mainly but mainly due to the political crisis. Overall, the Building and Territories segment, sales for Q1 reduced 5.5% year-over-year.

On the side, on Industry and Solutions, as you know, Industry and Solutions is a multiple subsegment, in that business, but industrial solutions was 6% down year-over-year in Q1 sales, and it was impacted by the COVID crisis starting mid-March as well, but on a different scale according to the business. Part of the most impacted businesses on Industry and Solutions were automotive harnesses and automation and robotics, were significantly impacted following the shutdown of the car and truck manufacturers around the world. Nexans harnesses business sales reduced 6% year-over-year when Audi, BMW, Daimler shut down their plants in Germany mid-March. Automation sales decreased 30% year-over-year, mainly from sharp drop of orders, mainly also coming from the automotive industry.

Aerospace sales were also strongly impacted with a 9% decrease of sales year-over-year after Airbus announced shutdown of their assembling plants and delays of execution of the backlog. On the other side, the wind offshore business continued to grow +26% year-over-year, mainly supported by Vestas orders in the Nordics. On Telecom and Data, Q1 year-over-year organic decrease of 10%, suffered strong declines of fiber cable sales in Europe, 20%, where team on the ground were in confinement, unable to deploy fiber. LAN cables were moderately impacted, -2%, as decrease in sales in China early February was offset by a strong demand in Europe and the U.S. Finally, the dynamic for the High Voltage and Project is quite different. The COVID crisis had no impact on the business at that stage.

First quarter sales increased by 56% versus last year, thanks to a healthy backlog in subsea and the turnaround of our long high voltage business. On subsea, cable production was full capacity, and our installation vessel was in operation every single day, installing projects like Lavrion, in Q1. Subsea sales increased by 66% versus last year, supported by this high activity and also a favorable phasing on installation versus last year. On the land, high voltage sales, they grew by 22% versus last year, thanks to the backlog, but also to the completion of the restructuring that started in 2019, that now in 2020, as planned, is starting to bear fruits. Now, if I move to the next slide, I will talk a few words about our liquidity, group liquidity. You can see that as of March 31st, Nexans has a liquidity position in excess of EUR 1 billion.

If we take a conservative approach and reduce this liquidity by the amount of vendor financing on copper, that can always shut down if the crisis was going to worsen, the liquidity, the stress liquidity number, would be around EUR 930 million. On top of this, the group has access to EUR 65 million of untapped credit facilities and is currently applying for a loan guaranteed by the French state for an amount of EUR 200 million-EUR 280 million. With this total, Nexans liquidity will amount to close to EUR 1.3 billion, which will ensure the company is well armed to face the crisis, even if this one should last beyond 2020.

On our debt covenants, Nexans closed 2019, as you know, with significant headroom on both covenant, leverage ratio, and gearing ratio, and we believe that there is no risk at that stage, based on the liquidity presented, that the company reaches the limits anytime soon. Let me now turn back to Chris for the COVID impacts on Nexans operational business.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, JC. So let's move on to page seven because I'm sure that, you know, Q1 looks a bit far away already, with such crisis that you will have a lot of questions regarding what's happened since mid-March up to now. This is the objective of this slide is to give you a bit some color of the magnitude of the impact business by business, countries, and sectors that we do cover. So, as you know, we will not give any forward-looking guidance today, but at least to give you this color. So let me explain a bit this page to make sure that it's well understood. First, the magnitude of the impact. This is the year represented by the three blue COVID star.

When it's three blue COVID stars, that implies a slowdown in demand from March 15th to April 30th, above 30%. If it's two blue COVID stars out of the three, it means a slowdown in demand between 6%-15%. If it's only one blue COVID star out of the three, it means that the slowdown is either 0% or -1% up to -5%. When it's three stars all gray, that means that there was no impact at all on the demand. So this information, in terms of impact on demand, is caused by our sales exposure per country or sectors, on year represented not in value, of course, but at least in terms of exposure, is it a very high exposure, medium, or low in regards to our total sales of each business group.

So if I start with the first graph, first representation which is Building and Territories , you can see that France, pretty high level of sales for our Building and Territories sectors has been heavily hit, specifically with during the period of construction down to 50%-60% in the first two weeks of April. On in Belgium, Canada, and Lebanon, we were at -40% during this 30 days or 45 days period. But business has been slightly picking up over the last two weeks of April. If we go still on the same sector, on the opposite side, Nordics, as you can see, has been less impacted, only few percent of decrease of demand in April in Norway, and absolutely no impact in Sweden. We have, as well, been able to make some growth.

Still, for Business and Territories, China is strongly recovering since the beginning of the months, as I mentioned. If we move on the Industry and Solutions side, of course, heavy hit on automotive harnesses, due to the lockdown of car manufacturers. Let me remind again that automotive business represents 8% of the total group sales. On that, I'm sure you will have a lot of questions about it. We will answer to that. Our exposure on oil and gas is relatively small, but, of course, oil and gas is strongly impacted, as you know. And we have as well, on the middle side, adapted our production output in aerospace following Airbus' recent information, regarding the minus 30%, minus 20 to minus 30% production output slowdown. Rolling stock, on the opposite, rolling stock on renewable sectors remain very robust.

We have signed a lot of contracts at the end of 2019 with customers that have, on their side, a fantastic backlog. So our operation for those businesses never stopped. For T&D, given the government policies on confinements, of course, preventing most fiber cable installation companies in Europe, telecom infrastructure sales were down -19%, and the drop continued very strongly in April. Just for France, for example, you can see some reports on SYCABEL that, from a year-over-year, we are close to -40% to -50%. But, thankfully for our business, we have been able to take additional orders following the lockdown of some of our competitors' operations during the month of April.

If I continue the reading on the right side, subsea, T&D is according to budget, so still on telecom, because we have a very, very strong backlog on, a lot of demand in the subsea telecom business for the coming weeks. On high voltage activities, as mentioned at the beginning of the call, our operation in Norway have not faced any disruption, neither slowdown, both in production and installation, and everything is running like plan on budget. We have to mention as well that we have made two significant repair projects that we have been able to manage in parallel, reinforcing Nexans' presence in the inspection, maintenance, and repair market segment.

So now, if we move to the last line before taking your questions on page 8, as I told you, thanks to our learning from COVID-19 crisis management in China in January and February, plus the fact that, as you know very well, Nexans is on a restructuring and transformation mode since 18 months, we have been able to anticipate a lot of measures and set the right level of action to cope with this crisis. Of course, we have addressed a lot of topics like business continuity, protecting our top customers. Here, of course, this slide is extremely financial. We have decided to deploy SHIFT Program, transformation program worldwide at the same tempo in all units in the world.

So, of course, well in advance on our 2021 objective, with one unique driver on the weekly mode on our three main pillars: cash preservation, cost reductions, and pricing up management. We have as well addressed all spend and cost compression. We have all our procurement team to ensure stability of supply and as well finding quick wins to reduce the price cost squeeze effect. And, of course, we have frozen all CapEx that we consider non-strategic. For focus, we are really now on the focus, so we are setting up a lot of financial analysis, scenarios, modeling. We have set as well, beginning of April, new cash conversion cycle target per unit at the end of June. So, you know, we have all classified them since two years on profit driver, cash cows, value burners.

So depending on their position, they have different set of target. We have reforecast all our cash flow. We have monitored all our financial parameters like JC command. And we have just launched new cost reduction initiative. The outcome for us is to have an enhanced liquidity, improve cash conversion cycle, accelerate complexity reduction and SHIFT Program deployment, optimize the pricing management, have a keep having a leaner and efficient cost structures, and reduce risk exposure on project. That gave me the opportunity to, because I'm sure you will have a lot of questions following the award of SüdOstLink in the last days. So let me give you a statement about it. As we already mentioned over the last 18 months, the groups continue to be drastically selective on all commercial opportunities on turnkey projects.

Our strict and solid evaluation process focuses on overall risk on the technology side or installation side, financial rewards, contractual terms. Consequently, although we are always prepared to embrace reasonable commercial and business challenges, we will not accept what, in our discreet judgment, is an excessive or a not adequately rewarded commercial risk. The SüdOstLink is a great and fantastic project for energy transition of Germany. So this installation of 1,000 km of cables and let us congratulate our competition for this sizable award. Our view is the following. To the combination of its size, the technical requirement and contractual obligation level of SüdOstLink project cannot be really compared with any past land high voltage project. However, subsea XLPE project constitute a good benchmark to assess, the SüdOstLink opportunity within a known risk-and-reward analytical framework.

The application of our standard subsea risk and opportunity analysis for this specific project that has been not done by our land expert, but that has been done by our subsea technical and financial expert, combining with financial modeling, risk statistics from past projects, has led internally in Nexans to a no-go on participating to the last part of this bidding. We have informed the customer, duly, during the negotiation phase. The price level implied by budgetary guidelines and confirmed by publicly available award values lead to a price per kilometer within around, let's say, of EUR 850,000-EUR 1,000,000 per kilometer. This is, for us, lower than the level observed in on several XLPE subsea projects with a similar level of installation share, but with, of course, lower tension and with AC-proven technology. The risk level, in our view, is significant.

Nexans has been the first player, let me remind you, we have been the first player to successfully complete the 525 kV HVDC PQ test. That said, for this technology for to be deployed, at such massive scale, 1,000 km under the severe contractual term that contractors are expected to adhere to, there has to be an adequate reward for the supplier. We felt early on, I've been a bit, I've been transparent about it, that the reward and risk formula was unbalanced to our detriment. But, of course, this is Nexans' view, our risk management sensitivity, and the way we want to build and grow our long-term backlog with the right combination of risk and profitability. In this condition, Nexans has chosen to save its available capacity for other projects and finally not to participate to the SüdOstLink bid.

We have made sure and TenneT fully understand our position, and we thank them for that, as we work with TenneT in great partnership over the last years. We look forward to do so in different projects. That was my statement regarding SüdOstLink. Now we are ready to open for questions.

Operator

Yes, sir. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, you may press the hash key. Once again, star and one if you wish to ask a question. Once again, for those who want to ask a question, just press star and one on your telephone keypad. We have a couple of questions that came through, sir.

We'll now take our first question. This comes from the line of Akash Gupta. Your line is now open. Please go ahead and ask your question.

Akash Gupta
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Akash. Yeah. Hi. Good morning, everybody. It's Akash here from JPMorgan. I have three questions, please. My first question is on slide seven. Can you quantify if we add all these dots together, then what it means for the group organic growth from March 15 to April 30? So that's question number one. The second question I have is if you can help us modeling high voltage business for the year where you have visibility from the backlog, at least for subsea portion. So Q1 was clearly pretty strong in terms of year-on-year growth. But what should we expect in remaining quarters, and what's your planning for the full year, given this business you have very little impact from COVID-19?

My final question is on these German high voltage corridors. So, I mean, I appreciate you providing color on your position. The question I have is that if we have the same technical terms or bidding terms that we had for SüdOstLink, then is it fair to assume that you won't be participating in the coming two projects that are still to be awarded? Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, Akash. JC?

Jean-Christophe Juillard
CFO, Nexans

Yeah. So I will take your first question, Akash. JC speaking on April and looking at page 7 of the presentation, having a view on what April looked like. So definitely, April let me remind you, as I presented, that really the impact on Nexans if I put Asia and China on the side because we started to get impacted in February, but it was very short, and we shut down our facilities only a couple of weeks.

The restart after that was extremely quick and was higher than expected. So I would say the Asian impact on Nexans' sales in Q1 was limited. Then after that came Europe and North America and the rest of the world, in fact. And that started really the second week of March. So we have, I would say, two to three weeks maximum impact in our Q1 of the issues of the COVID. April will be we believe that April will be the bottom point of the impact. It will be definitely a worsening of the impact on all our segment, but again, SLS, subsea, and land. And I will come to that in a second. But definitely, if you take the example of harnesses, that was impacted 6% in the month of in the first quarter.

The impact in April is almost 70%-75% reduction on sales on that business because all our customers basically were shutting down. Most of the month of April started late March and most of the month of April. Now we see reopening, restarting. It started to look much better now. But the month of April definitely will be significantly hit. Building is also; Building will also be heavily impacted in the month of April. The impact that we declared for the first quarter was 6%. It will be much higher than that for the month of April. But again, we start to see reopening. We had closures of facilities in Europe, but we are reopening now. And we're running, as Chris mentioned, all our plants are now in operation.

So April, to answer your question, will be the deepest point of the impact for the crisis, at least for now, where we see. May look much better. When it comes to SLS and subsea specifically, again, this business has not been impacted. What you see, the 6% subsea sales increase versus last year, is, again, twofold. If you recall, last year, the first quarter was very low. In fact, we had a negative organic growth in Q1 of 2019 versus 2018. It was really a phasing impact on how the cable production was phased on the big project as well as the installation. Just to give you an idea, last year, in the first quarter, we had 17 days of installation for the full quarter of both installation, cable installation deep sea from our main vessel. This year, in the first quarter, we had 91 days.

So fully, completely, fully in operation the entire quarter. So it really depends on the phasing. That's a big reason. We have now, as you know, a very big backlog. The way we would model SLS and subsea specifically is really completely in line with the current impact on this business segment with a crisis. Again, we have confirmed basically all the projects ongoing with our main customers, and we are on track. So what you had as assumption in February is still valid for 2020 when it comes to subsea. And the recovery of land finally is fully under control and now is bearing its fruit. And we will not have, obviously, the issues of the past and the impact on our sales and EBT we had in 2018 and 2019.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Well, if I can ask, add one or two comments, JC, on what you say. That's right.

Just before COVID-19 impact, we had a fantastic start. I want to mention that in all businesses, a fantastic start above expectations. So, of course, there is the foot on the brake now. We have to control as well Building and Territories . You know that territories, it's utilities. Utilities always remain much more resilient in crisis. And it's what we have seen in 2008 and 2009. There was a lot of demand during the last week that we have been able to cope. And, of course, building, it's easy to model because you have countries that have set up very, very strict confinement measures like France, Belgium, and Canada, and others that are a bit much lighter that have a huge impact regarding the demand. Once again, in Sweden, we have not decreased sales in April. We have almost growth sales in April. So different impact.

Regarding the last question, Akash, I understand your question regarding Scheduling. I will not comment it because the award is not yet there. But I think I gave you enough information to make your own view. Thank you.

Akash Gupta
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, for those who want to ask a question, just press star and one on your telephone keypad. And your next question comes from the line of Sean McLoughlin. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Sean McLoughlin
Director of Industrials and Clean Technology Research, HSBC

Thank you. Good morning. Well, good morning and thank you for taking my question. Just building on what Akash asked, specifically on high voltage, looking at much tougher comps through Q2 and Q4 2019, do you still expect organic growth in high voltage projects through the next three quarters? My second question is around the French government loan guarantee.

If you could just talk about cost and conditions around this. And the third question, you'd mentioned in a very helpful call last month about a W-shaped recovery. Just wondering if there's any development of your overall view there. Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Yes. Christopher speaking. Thank you for your questions. So on the first one regarding 2020 versus 2019 on subsea. So what we presented, what we explained in February during our presentation for 2019 result and looking at the guidance for 2020, we said that 2020 was kind of a plateau compared to 2019 and 2021 on the subsea business, mainly due to phasing of big project. Again, in 2019, we had some large project like NordLink, for instance, that came to a completion, basically releasing a lot of, I mean, I would say, final sales and margin.

We don't have this kind of phasing in our plan for 2020, which is why we'll have a plateau. We are not impacted by the crisis, I explained, but we will not have organic growth when compared to 2019 mainly due to this reason, despite the fact that all our facilities are fully at full production and our vessel will be utilized. But again, the phasing of the project means that 2020 will not see organic growth in subsea versus what you had in 2019. And we see, however, a rebound of that in 2021. That's for the question on subsea. The second question I think you had was on the loan, the French state loan. So yes, this is something that we are pursuing. We are well advanced in the negotiations and discussions for that.

We are using five of the banks that we are our main partners who are banks in our revolving credit facility today. We are finalizing the term sheet of that. It will be up to EUR 280 million loan. For one year, that can be extended for a maturity of three additional years. It will be guaranteed at 80% by the French state. The cost of that loan is extremely, I would say, interesting for us. It's basically all-in cost of 105 basis points. So very interesting with some condition, but not excessive condition to get the loan granted. So it's a quite interesting source of financing.

We believe that if the crisis could extend much longer or we see a W-shape and another big impact of the crisis at the end of 2020, early 2021, it will be helpful for our working capital need and management to have this additional liquidity, I would say, on our balance sheet.

Jean-Christophe Juillard
CFO, Nexans

Regarding your last question, Sean, regarding our view on recovery, in a nutshell, we are modeling our financial based on two events. We have taken on one hand the pandemic of Hong Kong in 1968 on the sanitary model and not the economic model, but the sanitary model that says that each pandemic has two waves of contamination, and the second wave having always an impact between 15-20 weeks after the end of the containment of the first wave.

So we take this as an element of a sanitary impact and that we mix with the 2008 economic crisis. So, of course, we are extremely vigilant right now, and we have daily report of the situation of the second wave in China that should appear from now on up to the end of July. If the second wave is pretty small, of course, that will have an impact, very positive impact to the recovery of the world. So as of today, our prediction is based on the W-shaped recovery, whereas 2008 was a V-shaped recovery. So we believe that the collapse can be much deeper than 2008 with small quick rebounds linked to end-of-containment period in some country with medium wave upon but during the next 12 months.

We have as well what we are doing to be extremely, I would say, precise on the way we're modeling our finances and to make sure that we don't make any mistakes on the way to operating the business and as well the way we manage the liquidity. We apply a different recovery depending on the sectors. We know that utilities are pretty resilient in such crises. We know that building can be extremely elastic and can turn in V-shape very, very fast. We know that automotive and aerospace can be a L-type recovery, whereas renewable can be extremely strong, rolling stock as well, extremely strong on high voltage, not concerned. So once again, this is a modeling. We may be wrong, but we prefer to be less optimistic and prepare for complex, I would say, five quarters and be surprised positively by a V-shaped scenario than the reverse.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

I hope that answered your question, Sean.

Sean McLoughlin
Director of Industrials and Clean Technology Research, HSBC

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And we will now take our next question. And this comes from the line of Artem Tokarenko. Your line is now open. Please go ahead and ask your question.

Artem Tokarenko
Associate Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first question is around Ørsted's comments on large US projects being at increased risks of delaying offshore and maybe slower consenting. I'm just wondering how this affects your planning around your US plans and whether you see any implication for your agreement, which you concluded last year with Ørsted. And also, my second question is more broadly around submarine projects pipeline for this year. Could you maybe talk a little bit about the bigger projects you think can go ahead this year and if there are any delays?

Outside of those German land corridors. Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you. Thank you for your question. I forgot to mention that Ragnhild Katteland, the head of SLS, is on the line. Ragnhild, you're here?

Ragnhild Katteland
VP of SLS, Nexans

Yes, I am.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

But I will let you take these questions regarding the announcement of Ørsted on our maybe you can start by an update regarding our Charleston CapEx upgrade, Seagreen, Ørsted on the backlog of high voltage. Thank you, Ragnhild.

Ragnhild Katteland
VP of SLS, Nexans

Yes, I will. Thank you, Chris. So for Charleston, you all know that we are turning this into a subsea plant. It's going ahead as planned. And a major milestone was just achieved just last month when we started the manufacturing of our first subsea export cable project, Seagreen for SSE in U.K. This project is in the pipeline for Charleston has been for a long time.

It will utilize Charleston then for the next most 2020 and 2021. When it comes to the partnership and framework agreement with Ørsted and Eversource, it's truly a good partnership. Ørsted did come out with a communication regarding some uncertainties for the U.S. projects. We still believe strongly that the U.S. project will go ahead. The announcement was really made to one specific project. This is Skipjack, where you don't have any export cables. So as such, we are not in any way influenced by this delay. There is also in this communication put in a risk of delay of Ocean Wind, but it's not a delay yet. So base case for Charleston is still valid. We go ahead as planned. I just discussed with Ørsted yesterday regarding this fact.

Of course, to mitigate any risk, as we always do with projects, we do work on different scenarios and also in this case. So we are working together with Ørsted to see, in case there should be a delay for Ocean Wind, how could we then put up the sequencing in Charleston with South Fork, Revolution to ensure that we utilize Charleston fully. And this is, of course, the interest for both Nexans and also for Ørsted.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

And we have to mention, Ragnhild, that we have to mention as well that we are talking about 2022. 2021 production is already secured and up and running.

Ragnhild Katteland
VP of SLS, Nexans

Clearly. So Seagreen project is going to be installed in 2021, finishing last cable in end 2021, installed beginning 2022. So no doubt for utilization of Charleston 2021 and 2021 is okay.

Then with the pipeline, as we see today, is no risk neither for 2022 and onward. So I'm confident of this one. For the rest of the backlog, the question was regarding backlog in subsea. We don't see today that there are any delays of the planned coming subsea projects. Of course, we're following this closely. But again, as I said, we don't see this coming. And of course, the backlog for 2020 for subsea is already contracted. So as such, there is no risk for our backlog for 2020 or 2021 for the subsea projects. The main project that we're working on this year, we have Mallorca-Menorca. We are just mobilizing and have started the North Sea Link project, Norway-U.K., which is a major project this year with the installation both onshore and offshore. So that's kind of the main project.

We also have them in the Mindanao in the Philippines. None of these projects, we see any type of delays. I also would like to mention what Chris mentioned earlier is that we have had two major repairs in first quarter, both from Malta, Sicily, and also outside Spain, both with anchor damage, so not anything else. Now we will start and have mobilized for also a repair in Oslofjord, also with anchor damage for some cable. So the operations subsea offshore is going very well. I think, Chris, anything else to mention?

No. I think it has been clear.

Artem Tokarenko
Associate Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you very much for your comments, sir. Actually, maybe I wasn't very clear, but actually meant more the bidding activity this year for new submarine projects. I think previously, the indications were for the market to be around EUR 3 billion and then German corridors to be on top.

So given current situation and progress with project tendering, do you think there is still scope for the market to be as strong as EUR 3 billion this year?

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Ragnhild?

Ragnhild Katteland
VP of SLS, Nexans

Whether or not it comes to EUR 3 billion or not, again, as what I said, we have not got any indications that any of the projects that we have in our to be tendered, that they will be delayed. Today, again, I don't see any difference in this scope.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

And what we may say, Ragnhild, is that we believe that energy transition will be reinforced in the coming years, both in terms of countries' interconnections and renewable energy deployment. We can have one or two projects slippage, but I'm sure that post-COVID-19, all governments, all utilities, we strongly invest in energy transition.

So as of now, to be very transparent, we have not seen any disruption in our bidding demand and tendering. So smooth flow for the moment.

Artem Tokarenko
Associate Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you very much for your comments.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question. This comes from the line of David Barker. Your line is now open. Please go ahead and ask your question.

David Baker
Equity Research Associate, Bank of America

Good morning, everyone. Just a couple from me. Firstly, for Chris, can you talk a little bit in a bit more detail on your work with Europacable to bring forward some parts of the European Green New Deal? And what are you hoping to get out of governments in Europe? And is there any real hope that we can see some of this renewables grid demand across Europe pulled forward? And then secondly, maybe one for JC.

Can you give any sense at all on the scale of how much you can accelerate your fixed cost reductions this year? And I guess more specifically, can you give any sense of how we should be thinking about EBIT drop-through, certainly for H1? And then finally, in automotive harnesses, aerospace, and oil and gas, clearly, there's quite a big fixed cost base in some of these businesses. And one might argue that the demand environment mid-term could be impaired. Are you using this as an opportunity to kind of accelerate the right-sizing of these businesses more permanently? Those are my three questions. Thanks.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

JC, do you start on?

Jean-Christophe Juillard
CFO, Nexans

Yeah. I will start. So I will have it would be difficult, David, to give you, I would say, a view on what could be H1 in terms of impact on our EBITDA.

It's obviously a little bit early for that to give you. I mean, we talked about the month of April being a very tough month, recovery in May, but we have to see how much of the recovery is it going to be a slow recovery, or is it going to be sharper than expected? So it's a little bit premature. I mean, what we know already, again, that April is, as we said, on all businesses, but SLS is very much impacted. When it comes to fixed cost reduction, yes, definitely, we have two very strong objectives to, I would say, take advantage, if I can say that, on the crisis. The first one is to manage better our working capital and reduce them significantly. We've been quite high, and we've been working on that.

But this is a very good opportunity for us to basically streamline and reduce significantly our working capital and preserve liquidity. So we are working on that. And typically, if you look at Nexans and the way Nexans has been every year evolving, you always have the first six months of the year where we consume working capital on magnitude of EUR 200 million that we recover on the second part of the year. So we are making sure that this is not happening this year, or at least not in the magnitude that we usually see. Obviously, there will be drop-off sales. Drop-off sales mean drop-off receivables. But also, we are managing much more closely our inventories. That's something we have not really done at that level in the past. So working capital, one thing, and preservation of cash. The second one is fixed costs.

So you know you're right that we're addressing part of the transformation, fixed cost reduction. We have about EUR 75 million per year of fixed cost reduction. That's needed anyway in our business just to cope with the price-cost squeeze and the inflation, the productivity gain. This year, obviously, price-cost squeeze will be much lower than the average EUR 65 million that we see in our company every year. So we'll have a gain on that. However, on the fixed cost reduction, sorry, we will see a meaningful additional fixed cost cut this year. I mean, just some of them will come naturally, right? There's no traveling in the company. So traveling is EUR 20 million per year in Nexans. I mean, there will be very big reduction of that number. There is much less demand in consulting and a lot of additional costs that we will not see.

And then we are doing long-term action also. So I mean, I cannot give you an additional number of fixed costs we will cut for the year, but it will be meaningful with all the initiative. And I will come with much more clarity on that when we'll announce our H1 numbers.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Yeah. So regarding the question on Europacable, of course, we are pushing hard. You know that the electricity demand in 2020 will decline by 5%, which is the largest drop since the Great Depression in the 1930s. And during the lockdown measure, there is a major shift towards low-carbon source of electricity, including nuclear, hydropower, wind, and solar, photovoltaic, which will lead this year to reach more than 40% of global electricity generation. Coal has particularly been hit, massive impact as well on oil demand.

It has declined at more than 50% because of the lockdown. What we can see is that this year, renewables are said to be the only source of energy that will grow in 2020 with a share of global electricity generation that will jump this year, of course, owing lower operating costs and priority access to the grid. We believe that in Europacable, that energy transition and renewable energy will be the long winner of this crisis. We hope that all governments and the European, I would say, leaders in Brussels will take as well the right decision to reinforce all the investments in that direction.

David Baker
Equity Research Associate, Bank of America

Thank you very much. Take care.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, David.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Geoffrey at DM. Your line is now open. Please go ahead and ask your question.

Speaker 12

Yes. Good morning, everyone.

Thank you for taking my questions. I guess the first one is on the Telecom and Data division. I wanted to kind of get a better view of the mix between the impact, obviously, of COVID-19, but also the impact of de-stocking at some of your major customers in infrastructure over the Q1 and maybe the impact that you expect from de-stocking and COVID-19 as we go until the end of the year. And then maybe the second question is maybe in LAN and telecom again, what effect do you expect for the rest of the year as we can see that maybe there could be some increase in data center demand for this division, excluding the impact of COVID? Thank you very much.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, Geoffrey. Well, I will take this one. First of all, there is, of course, a different momentum between LAN and fiber optic.

If I talk to cable fiber optic first, and I remind you that we don't produce fiber but just the cable, it's a very contrasted view. We had a growth of more than 20% in Scandinavia. We have an important fall in France because of the lockdown, which is France and Belgium is a big part of our wire sales. And that was already a very strong de-stocking effect in January and February because if you remember, I told you that there was a lot of inventories in operators' warehouse due to a lot of importation that they have made at the end of 2019 and as well products with a higher fiber price that they wanted to consume as a top priority. So there was not a fantastic start of the year in telecom fiber optic. We benefit from a greater price.

Fiber optic is not yet like the barrel, meaning turning negative, but of course, lower demand can generate potential of price gain for our procurement team. We are extremely vigilant on that. But we have to mention as well that for fiber optic deployment, the demand is there. We need to renew all the backbone. So it's a pure COVID-19 impact. It will not change the deployment phase of all the countries. They need that fiber. So we believe that there will be a pretty sharp recovery in the coming months, of course, if there is not a major second wave on COVID-19. LAN business has been more resilient. We are mainly, I would say, following the business in U.S. U.S. has been extremely dynamic on that sector. So we have a very, very good model there.

We have implemented SHIFT as well with a fantastic success in the LAN business. So we are extremely confident. That answers your question, Geoffrey?

Speaker 12

Yes. I think it does. Can I just follow up with actually a quick question on LAN's High Voltage? I totally understand your comment on the German corridors. And I guess my question is, where is your backlog standing in LAN's High Voltage? And what other projects or opportunities do you see in LAN's High Voltage apart from the German corridors?

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thanks. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. We never give the split of our backlog. The only thing I can tell you is that we are fully loaded in non-high voltage up to 2021. There is a lot of customers out of Germany calling us to set a framed contract for the coming two to three years.

It's not only Germany that we need to renew its entire backbone. It's all the countries everywhere in the world. So energy transition, we will ride a lot of cables, but we prefer to pursue proven technology with lower tension that we master very well at a very good profitability level. Once again, this is the motto that I'm driving since my nomination to our investors. And let me thank them again for that trust. I don't want to build a backlog that could generate a big risk for the company in coming years in Nexans' standpoint of view. So we are extremely confident for the next deal to come. Of course, they could not be as, I would say, at the same scale than SüdOstLink, but very reasonable one in terms of size and in terms of risk, sensitivity, and profitability.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you very much.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jean-François Granjon. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jean-François Granjon
Managing Partner, Oddo BHF

Yes. Good morning. I just have three questions, please. Could you come back on the LAN business? And could you explain to us if you can reduce the losses? You expect some break-even this year. So do you expect to reach the break-even level for the LAN business this year despite the context? The second question, could you make an update regarding the CapEx program for this year? You mentioned previously that you should reduce the maintenance CapEx. So could you give us the amount of the CapEx expected for this year? And the last question, during the previous call in April, you mentioned that for the B&T division, you expect a 9% decrease for the full year in terms of sales. Do you confirm this expectation or not? Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

So thank you, Jean-François, for your question. I will start with a LAN question. So again, all SLS business right now, long-term project, we don't see impact in 2020 due to COVID. So the big difference we had between 2018, 2019, and 2020 was basically the shutdown of one of our facilities in LAN, the refocus on one facility, Charleroi, the transfer of the project into that plant, and the execution of those projects. And as you said, we had a significant loss in 2018. We cut the loss in half in 2019. And our objective announced for 2020 was to be break-even. We are fully in line with this. So it will make a difference of about EUR 25 million from last year losses. And we are on target to achieve that.

The numbers, as reported as of today, are completely in line when it comes to this return back to a break-even situation on that loss-making business. And again, all the projects are long-term projects, and we've seen no delays in that. This is explaining why you see also the significant sales organic growth versus last year. It's because we are now executing the project and producing the cables accordingly. On the CapEx side, yes. I remind you that the CapEx for the group, as announced pre-crisis, was EUR 290 million, but EUR 160 million of that are CapEx linked to Subsea, mainly to the Aurora vessel construction and the Charleston plant transformation. So we will not touch those because they are critical CapEx, strategic CapEx. Behind those CapEx, we have a project and a pipeline and a backlog to basically use that investment.

So we need the plant and the boat to be ready for 2021. So we will not touch that. We are left remaining with EUR 130 million of, I would say, maintenance and other CapEx. We are focusing extremely granularly in details to reduce that number for the year 2020 to basically, obviously, preserve our liquidity. Our objective is at least to cut this number in half and potentially more.

Jean-Christophe Juillard
CFO, Nexans

Regarding B&T, Jean-François, so yes, we mentioned that the gross could be at the end of the year between -10% to -15%. Of course, we will adjust the numbers in the coming months. We are extremely vigilant as well on the communication of some of our customers regarding their vision because really, country by country, the situation is different. And you have to cut building and utilities into two.

And for us, it's 50/50, 50% ourselves on building, 50% on utilities. And they have different dynamic. Once again, there are some countries with a very, very strong heat, which is France where we are present, Italy, extremely heat, but we have a very small presence on Spain, huge heat, but we are not there. And in opposite, we have Sweden, which is extremely dynamic, and Norway as well, extremely dynamic. So China as well, full speed. So still difficult to predict what will be the end of the year, what will be the impact of the second wave of pandemic. But this is for the moment what we have.

Jean-François Granjon
Managing Partner, Oddo BHF

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your last one. And your next? Yes. We have another question, sir. This comes from the line of Andrea. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andrea Beneventi
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Good morning, everybody.

It's Andrea Beneventi, Kepler Cheuvreux. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on the German corridors commentary. I understand your clarity on the SüdLink , but I was wondering, where do you stand with regards to the A-Nord project? And how do the underlying terms and conditions discussed there?

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Yeah. So there is still the discussion happening for the A-Nord corridor. But once again, we are discussing terms and conditions. We are discussing the technology because, of course, the cable could be the same, but the tension could be a bit different with lower risk. So this is what we are studying for the moment. And of course, there will be the profitability. So the discussions are still ongoing.

Andrea Beneventi
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thanks for that. And a follow-up one on the government loan guarantee from France. Could that potentially affect your capability to raise the dividend going forward?

Or more in general, is there any program from governments which can restrict this option in the future?

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

So we are still discussing with the banks to finalize the term sheet. So that's one aspect of discussion. However, I mean, what is important? I mean, we see at Nexans that being a short-term need. Again, we have the liquidity and the balance sheet. We're taking that additional, I would say, loan to preserve ourselves in case there is a much worsening of the crisis in the future. But again, we have a quite strong balance sheet as it is today. We are, therefore, planning on basically paying back the loan within 12 months. So for us, it's not a question of, I would say, take that loan and use it as a long-term financing. So the question of the dividend, definitely, for us, will not happen next year.

Andrea Beneventi
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you. And another one is on the land high voltage comments of the market opportunities. Given the TenneT award of this week, it seems that some players for those projects employ XLPE 525 kV technology, and other players employ other technology. I was wondering, where do you stand from a technological standpoint in that regard? And how do these different technologies affect the product proposition in the TenneT activity? And most importantly, how do you think about the next five years from a technological standpoint in the space? Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Wow. Thank you for this last question. Ragnhild, maybe you can explain how the technology is evolving and as well maybe the link between subsea and land business together?

Ragnhild Katteland
VP of SLS, Nexans

Yes. So first, I would like to mention that Nexans, of course, has a strong R&D program where we both work on improving current technology as well as looking forward to enhanced new technologies. So this is in our backbone, and I think it must be. When it comes to technologies for XLPE DC, again, as Chris mentioned in the call, we were the first one actually doing the 525 kV DC extruded PQ test. So as such, you see that Nexans is there on this technology. When it comes to risk and maturity, today, for long interlink projects, we still believe that the paper cable solutions that we have for NSL, for NordLink, for the Crete-Attica, for these big projects, we still think that those are the ones that are still mature for the subsea part.

Going forward, the years to come, of course, this will change or could change so that we will have both this technology and also the type of extruded technologies like, for example, XLPE or P-Laser. But again, we're working on both of these or different solutions for the future. So for projects to come, it's more maturity and where we are for testing and together with the total risk assessment that we make.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly, Ragnhild. And what we want to say is that it's not a question only on you cannot take things in silos. It's not only technology on one side, profitability on the others, on terms and conditions. It's the combination of everything together on the scale of each project. So before, I was nominated.

There was a lot of decision that has been taken by feeling, by a few data analysis with no model, with just by experience. And that was great decision in the past. But now, we put everything under a model. We have a scoring system for each project to come on all the aspects, combining all the elements that we mentioned. And th is is the way we make our decision. I hope it answered your question.

Andrea Beneventi
Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Thank you very much. Much appreciated.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you.

We have another question. Really, the last one? The last one?

Operator

Yes, sir. Yes, sir. This is the last question. And it comes from the line of Akash Gupta. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Akash Gupta
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the follow-up. I have a follow-up question on earlier questions regarding fixed cost savings in 2020.

So if I look at the press release, you talk about accelerating savings from 2019 and 2021 plan. And maybe if you can talk about how should we expect about these fixed cost savings or phasing of fixed cost saving between 2020 and 2021? And is there any room to bring forward some of the savings that you were originally expecting in 2021? Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Yes, sure, Akash. Thank you. So as I mentioned before, so we have EUR 210 million objective for the three years of the equity story. We achieved the first third of that in last year. We were targeting an equivalent amount for 2020 and a third part of that, again, in next year. We will see definitely an increase of the fixed cost reduction this year for the reason I mentioned before.

Some of them are going to be, I would say, one-off reduction due to the fact, for instance, if I take the traveling cost, some of them are going to be deeper recurrent reduction. So you will see them in this year, and they will also increase the number of fixed cost reductions next year. So this crisis will be taken for Nexans as a good reason to basically review completely our fixed cost even deeper and go beyond in 2020 and 2021 the level that we originally targeted in the equity story. Now, again, it's too premature for me to tell you what will be the new fixed cost target from 2020 and 2021. But we will for sure come back and give that information very shortly.

Akash Gupta
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Christopher Guérin
CEO, Nexans

Thank you, Akash. Thank you, everyone, for your participation. Let me thank all our team around the world.

We are very proud of their daily engagement. This crisis reinforces our culture and values. Let me thank as well our shareholders for their trust and support. You can count on me, count on all the management teams of Nexans to make Nexans a successful company without taking abnormal risk. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

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