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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 19, 2022

Operator

Welcome to the conference call regarding L'Oréal's Q1 2022 sales. If you need some help, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. The conference is about to begin. I now hand over to Françoise Leva. Please go ahead.

Françoise Leva
Chairwoman, Téthys

Thank you, Laurence. Good evening to all. [Foreign language] . The L'Oréal team is pleased to welcome you to this conference call for the release of the Q1 2022 sales. Together with me today are CEO Nicolas Hieronimus.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Hello.

Françoise Leva
Chairwoman, Téthys

CFO Christophe Babule.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Hello.

Françoise Leva
Chairwoman, Téthys

I hope you received our press release, which was issued earlier today and which can be found on our website loreal-finance.com. The Q1 of 2022 was overshadowed by the invasion of Ukraine and by renewed sanitary constraints in some parts of China. Against this unstable backdrop, L'Oréal achieved a strong Q1 in a beauty market that follows its recovery path.

Q1 sales increased a very strong 19% on a reported basis to exceed EUR 9 billion. Foreign impact was quite positive at +5.1% as the euro weakened against most currencies, and the net impact of changes in the scope of consolidation was + 0.4%. Like for like, growth came to a sustained +13.5%.

By division on a like-for-like basis, L'Oréal Luxe posted a strong 17.5% increase in sales and outperformed the luxury beauty market. The division reinforced its lead in a dynamic fragrance market and achieved a solid performance in skincare, both with Lancôme Absolue and Helena Rubinstein, its ultra-premium franchises, and with the contribution of newly acquired brands Takami and Youth to the People.

The Consumer Products division accelerated over the second half of last year and ended the quarter with a solid 6.9%, despite some supply chain challenges. The Professional Products and Active Cosmetics divisions continued to build on their strong momentum with Q1 growth of +17.6% and +18%, respectively. Growth was also well-balanced by region.

Europe posted a strong +16.4% recovery over Q1 last year, which was still affected by the closure of point of sales in several countries. North America continued its sustained growth path of 12.6%. North Asia ended the quarter up 9.4% with double-digit growth in mainland China, thanks to successful campaigns for the Chinese New Year, Valentine's Day, and Women's Day.

SAPMENA-SSA achieved a strong 15.8% performance with broad-based growth across India and Southeast Asia, as well as in the Gulf countries. Latin America increased a remarkable 22.2%. By channel, there was a clear revival in offline sales, which showed a 15% like-for-like increase, while e-commerce, which continued to grow at +8%, represented 25.8% of quarterly sales.

Travel retail sales increased by 19%, boosted by an extremely sharp rebound in Europe on a low basis and by continued double-digit growth in Asia. In short, 2022 has gotten off to a good start. Looking ahead, even though the current and stable context requires some caution, we remain optimistic over the prospects of the beauty market.

Short term, the currency environment remains a tailwind. Extrapolating end of March currency rates against the euro or EUR 1 at around $1.11 for the remainder of the year would lead to a positive currency impact of 4.4% on 2022 full year sales. We are confident in our ability to outperform the beauty market once again in 2022 and to achieve another year of growth in both sales and profits. I thank you for your attention, and I now hand over to Nicolas.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Yes, good afternoon to everyone. Before taking your questions, maybe a short preliminary comment. I just want to say that I'm very proud of this quarter's performance from L'Oréal, considering the context. You know, we all reading the same news, listening to the same things, the lockdowns in China, inflation, the Ukraine invasion, which we solemnly condemn.

In this very unstable context, L'Oréal manages to grow by 13.5%, so keeping a very strong growth rhythm, +19% in published, with the benefit of favorable exchange rates. That's a great performance on the market, which continues to demonstrate its resilience. You know, the beauty market, our estimation of the beauty market growth for the Q1 with all the reservations due to the fact that we had little time to compute everything, but we estimate the market growth to be at 8%, which is consistent with last year's rhythm.

There has not been any negative impact of the current context on the overall growth of the market, neither on L'Oréal's ability to overperform. I commented in previous call on the Grand Slam of L'Oréal. Well, this quarter again, we can say that we are beating the market growth in every division and in every region.

That's thanks to many different things, strong innovations, conscious valorization policy, an omni-channel strategy that allows us to benefit from the bounce back of brick-and-mortar after the closures of last year. Our geographical balance, which allows us to either benefit or offset whatever changes there might be in the world. Of course, the very strong L'Oréal teams who are fully dedicated.

Even though, as Françoise said, the context is quite volatile and unstable, you know, I confirm our optimism for both the growth of the market, because this market is a market that continues to grow, but also, more importantly, in our ability to overperform it and to deliver a new year of improvement in top line and profits. Of course, it will require work, but the L'Oréal teams are ready and more motivated than ever to achieve it. I'm ready to take your questions, and of course, with the assistance of Christophe, we'll share the answers.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero and one on your telephone keypad. Please pick up your handset before asking your question, and set your microphone on mute once you ask your question. We have our first question from Celine Pannuti from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Celine Pannuti
Senior Analyst, Head of European Food, Home, Personal Care and Tobacco Research, JP Morgan

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Hello. First, I wanted to rebound on your commentary on market growth, so thank you for sharing Q1 estimates. I think that for your sake, we're talking about growth rate of the market around mid-single digits of 4% to 5%. Is this still something you're looking for the year?

D oes that mean that we should see some form of normalization? I just want to understand, like, if this is normal or slower growth in the market, is it because you are expecting at some point to have an impact on consumption or, you know, it's just a question of comparatives, because effectively, the commentary you made that the consumption has been unimpacted by inflation is quite surprising. If you could comment on that would be great.

My second question is on the U.S. It seems that the Consumer Products Division had some supply challenges in the U.S. Is that material, that's something that you could quantify? I just would like to understand, you know, whether the supply chain challenges are meant to continue in the Q2 and whether there is any relationship with the fact that it seems that the Nielsen data will be weakish in the quarter. Thank you for that.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

First on the market growth, we maintain our estimate that the market should grow between 4% and 5% this year. It's indeed lower than the 8% that we have in the Q1 . We have to remember that the Q1 of 2021 was still impacted by a few lockdowns, particularly in Western Europe, where significant countries such as the U.K., Germany, even some there was a little bit in France w e have a favorable comparative in the Q1 of 2021.

T here are a few other countries, emerging countries that were in the same situation so w e think that to use your terminology, that there will be some normalization, even though 4% to 5% remains for me a pretty decent growth a ll the more if we manage to continue to outperform it. That's for the market. As far as CPD U.S. is concerned, well, globally, first of all, the supply issue is a shared problem with many companies, many industries in many parts of the world.

It's true that in the U.S., we are more affected, and in mass market, we are more affected than in other parts of the world f irst of all, because as you know the U.S. we import a number of raw materials and all components for the U.S. from either Europe or Asia. You know, the situation of the U.S. ports. It's true also that the U.S. market has been pretty dynamic with a few strong accelerations which have impacted also Active Cosmetics.

We have reacted and improved to a certain extent the situation on CeraVe, for example, with the opening of a manufacturing line in Mexico. As far as CPD is concerned, the division is penalized on makeup but also on skincare. Is it material? Yes, it is material for CPD, and I think overall the performance of CPD would have been even better.

Because the performance of the division, which differs by category in the U.S. but remains very, very good in makeup, very good in hair, very good also overall in omni-channel. It has been less strong on skincare, but that is precisely where we have had our biggest out of stock. We hope it is going to be normalizing over the next couple of months, but I do not think it will be totally solved by Q2.

Celine Pannuti
Senior Analyst, Head of European Food, Home, Personal Care and Tobacco Research, JP Morgan

Thank you. Just come back on my first question on the market growth. You are saying that demand has been unimpacted by inflation. As you look forward for the next quarters and your innovation, what are you planning for? What kind of consumer are you expecting to find? I mean, same.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Well, you know, the one thing we have to say about, not the magic but the construction of the L'Oréal portfolio is that we have a very large price bracket from, as you know, from the most expensive luxury creams which appeal to the upper classes of the world and that are very successful in China to a very affordable mascaras or shampoos sold by CPD. Even within each division, we scale our prices i f I take CPD, for example, they are, you know, very reasonable in terms of price increases and using a lot of RGM, revenue growth management, to manage their promotions, their formats.

Not to deter consumers from buying their products, but they come with innovations that are systematically, and that's been really the strategy this year, accretive in terms of growth margin. You are in a situation where, theoretically, and that's our objective, we will be seducing and targeting all consumers from the wealthiest to the traditional middle classes of the world.

Celine Pannuti
Senior Analyst, Head of European Food, Home, Personal Care and Tobacco Research, JP Morgan

Thank you.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

You're welcome.

Operator

We have another question from Guillaume Delmas from UBS. Please go ahead.

Guillaume Delmas
Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director, UBS

Thank you. Good evening, all. Couple of questions for me, please. The first one is on China, and it seems that there's a couple of obvious headwinds you are facing there. You mentioned the sanitary measures, but in the press release you also talk about the slowdown of some e-commerce players.

Wondering if you can shed a bit more light on this. I guess more importantly, despite this, do you remain optimistic on China and your ability to maintain double digits like for like there over the next quarters? Or have you seen some gradual deterioration in China through the course of Q1, and as a result, maybe you would expect a softer Q2 ?

My second question is, could you give us the Q1 like-for-like sales growth by product category? I noticed in the press release it is mentioned that makeup was particularly strong in both Europe and North America. Wondering if this is only down to an easy basis of comparison, some recovery, or whether you are witnessing the early signs of a makeup boom. Thank you.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Okay. First on China. I have to say it's true that, as you say, there are a few headwinds right now in China as you know, the biggest city in the country is under a very strict lockdown since mid-March. Of course that has an impact on consumers' behaviors and purchases. I remain very confident and I'll tell you why f irst of all, when we look at the total Chinese ecosystem, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Hainan, which is the only other destination where Chinese shopper can shop.

If we take the quarter, we estimate the market to be around mid-single digit, which is the growth we had estimated. We said mid- to high-single digits, so it's mid-single digit. We very significantly outpaced that growth. We estimate that our performance on that perimeter is in the mid-teens. So it's a pretty decent overperformance. It's true that the year January, February started very strong w e had a great Chinese New Year, a pretty good Women's Day. We had lots of traffic in Hainan in February.

March clearly showed a different atmosphere and we'll have to see looking ahead how long these very strict lockdown imposed by the zero-COVID policy will last. I remain confident because first of all, every time we've seen this in China, and I will appeal to my sidekick Christophe, who will tell you about his experience in the ups and downs of the Chinese market.

If I look at January, February, they were on a higher growth rhythm than the end of the year, which was, I think, a very good sign. It shows that every time that the Chinese consumers start, you know, with living again normally, they are back into the beauty market. If we look ahead, we think that the same will happen and o f course, if we look midterm, as we've often said, the Chinese market is going to continue to grow until it becomes the number one beauty market in the world. There are 317 million people that will enter the middle classes by 2030.

We today ourselves only sell to about 100 million out of the 600, which is our, I would say, addressable target. All this, plus the brands, we are bringing new brands in China. We've launched Valentino, we're bringing Prada, we have a few other cards on our sleeve, we will do everything to continue to grow that market. Obviously, short-term, we are just, like everybody, waiting to see whether the lockdowns are gonna be lighten up in the weeks to come. Maybe you can add a little bit of flavor to this, Christophe.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Yes, I will complement with a bit because it's true that the situation is not easy to understand, so I will give you some more precise situation f irst on the lockdowns, because everything started, as you know in March with some cities in the north, Jilin, but then it was Shenzhen. More recently, we have since March 15 more or less 45 cities that went to a total or partial lockdown. That's quite important i t's affecting like 25% of the population. As you know, since 1 April , we have a total lockdown right now in China.

When we see what's the impact on the city-by-city basis, I can tell you that, as of today, for example, Beijing is in a normal situation, achieving 100% of the target, but Guangzhou is probably at 60%. As you can imagine, right now, today, Shanghai is closed. You know, just to remind what was the situation, for example, two years ago, because we had the same situation. It's true that today, when you look at the retail sales in China, the Chinese government just mentioned that they were down 3.5% in March. Just as a reminder, two years ago, in March 2020, retail sales were down 16%.

You remember how fast then the recovery came out. That's why we're still quite confident. We don't know, of course, how long it will last, but we are still confident on the capacity of Chinese markets to rebound very quickly. We started very good. The market was at +7% at the end of February, and then impacted since March. We will see. But at the end of the day, we've been able to mitigate those impacts and with a growth that is nearly three times the one of the market at the end of Q1.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Regarding makeup, if we take the overall market, the growth is kind of the same as last year's. In 2021, the market grew by around 8% a gain, these are estimates. We are about in the same type of numbers for the Q1 , with of course, clearly, differences by region i think what's very interesting is the U.S. market, because the makeup market is accelerating, going above +8%, and it's accelerating both in mass and luxury and i think that's very interesting because last year, if you remember, the mass market in makeup had bounced back while selective had remained a bit slow.

We had made the analysis, which I think was very interesting, that this was very related to the working policy, where blue collars that shop more at Walmart and also on Amazon had, you know, they've basically gone back to their social life and work when the COVID was slowing down, whereas most of the white collars were home working and therefore less into social interactions.

As the U.S. is progressively getting out of COVID, we see the selective market now accelerating at double-digit higher than the mass market o f course, this is fueled by innovations that are proposed by our brands, whether it's Maybelline, NYX Professional Makeup, which is really doing great, or even our luxury brands. YSL launched a new mascara so w e have of course to stimulate the demand.

W e see that there is clearly, even though it's not purely mathematical, a correlation between going back out and going back to work in the offices and going back to a certain level of social life and the acceleration of makeup, which of course has to be excited or stimulated by innovations i must say that as we are talking about you know social life boosted categories, we continue to see a very dynamic fragrance market all over the world you know above 20% growth and w e are doing much better than that w e're close to 40% growth in fragrance.

That's also another sign that, you know, in this tough world, people want also to they want color, they want to socially interact. We'll see how far the makeup market goes. As we are leading it and doing everything it takes to stimulate the consumer's appetite, we hope it's gonna be a good year for makeup.

Guillaume Delmas
Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director, UBS

Thank you very much.

Operator

We have another question from Bruno Monteyne from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Bruno Monteyne
Senior Analyst for European Food Retail, Bernstein

Hi, good afternoon.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Hello. Good afternoon.

Bruno Monteyne
Senior Analyst for European Food Retail, Bernstein

My first question is coming back on something discussed before i mean, you made it very clear that even if there's an economic recession or a slowdown, you have all the price points. Even if people trade down, the volumes should be quite strong at L'Oréal given that you cover all price points. Even if the volumes are stable and people are trading down, you've had years of pretty material valorization, so big price mix benefits.

Wouldn't you expect that to go into negative territory when economic times get tougher, so stable volumes but still a material impact on organic growth? Would it be fair to say that could swing from a few hundred basis points positive to a negative few hundred basis points and that has an impact on your organic growth?

The second one is, I think in the guidance for the full year, you made it clear that, you know, margin environment would be tough in the first half as was happening with commodities. Things have gotten worse since your full year results. Is there any change to your outlook of how you think about margin for the year given what's happened to commodities and Ukraine and Russia, or is all of that unchanged? Thank you.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Thank you, Bruno. F irst of all, just on growth, you know, if we look at our first half results, the +13.5%, once again, it's a pretty balanced growth as it relates to volume and value as we have +5% in volume and the difference 8.5% in value, which is a blend of mix and price points. When we compare to last year, less mix and more of price valorization because we've taken a few price increases to offset cost of goods.

As you can see, we do not see at this point a slowdown in volume, and I don't think we have you know worn out our pricing power because a lot of our price increases or our valorization comes from innovation. If I take an example, our Consumer Products Division, which is having a pretty good run in haircare right now, thanks to their you know new products like Elvive Hyaluronic or a few other on Fructis. I think the average net price per ml of CPD has increased by 8% a m I correct?

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Right.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

8%. We're bringing to the market more desirable products at higher prices and o f course, it's up to us to offer the formats that allow every type of consumer to enter the game and to buy our products all the more as some of our catalog products are less increased. Of course, we have you know always to be cautious and to be very attentive to what's happening on the market.

This is an offering market, and we will continue to offer innovative, differentiated product that hopefully can valorize. I do not foresee the gloomy negative scenario you mentioned and o f course, we'll work hard to make sure it doesn't happen y ou wanna add something, Christophe?

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Yes. I want to strengthen this message because it's very important y ou know, when you look at the figures at the end of the Q1 , we have all divisions growing by at least 3.5% in volume, and all divisions have a positive impact in terms of price increase, but also in terms of mix. As Nicolas was mentioning, you know, we've been working a lot last year. I think we shared that with you new strategies in terms of revenue growth management, and that's of course helping us in driving the growth in a very balanced way.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

As far as your second question is concerned, you're right to say that the bad news have gotten worse overall on the raw materials and component prices over the weeks and months. It's true that it's an impact that's going to be a year-long, an all-year-round impact rather than just focused on the first half. It doesn't change our vision and our, you know, the capacity to deliver, of course, growth in top line and growth in profit.

Why? Well, as you know, first of all, we are even with this cost of goods impacts, which we are partially offsetting by revenue growth management, innovations that are more accretive, but even with these negative impacts, we still are a high growth margin business, which means that growth generates both fuel for our brands and w e've explained that we'll be a tiny bit more frugal on our A&P spend without reducing it in absolute terms, but in percentage there is leeway there.

But also this top line growth will also allow us to deliver an improvement in percentage margin. So it's tougher. The market, as we said, is more volatile, but seen from today, we remain confident and optimistic on both items.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Absolutely.

Bruno Monteyne
Senior Analyst for European Food Retail, Bernstein

Thank you.

Operator

We have another question from Jeremy Fialko from HSBC. Please go.

Jeremy Fialko
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

A couple of questions from me. Just following up on this question of kind of consumer confidence and inflation. I think it's pretty clear that globally, the demand for your categories and products is very, very robust. Are there any particular geographies or segments where you have seen some sort of an erosion of consumer confidence or the inflation is having more of an effect on consumers' buying decisions? Or genuinely, is there nothing that you would single out from what you've seen so far?

And then secondly, a small clarification on Russia. Can you tell us what percentage? of your, I don't know, say like start of 2022 sales you are currently running at within the Russian market given you're just focusing on essential items? Thanks.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Okay. First of all, on the impact of inflation and the erosion of consumer confidence today, as of today, we haven't seen any downturn or negative reaction in different countries. Even though, you know, the numbers, the market growth or the market dynamics by month are super difficult to estimate t here is, you know, there is no drop, if we accept the impact of the lockdown in China.

We do not see that a ctually, you know, it's a small anecdote, but I come back from Mexico, where I was visiting our subsidiary ten days ago, and I was very impressed by the both the dynamism of our business, which is true by the way all over Latin America and many emerging. It seems that at least in these countries, people are coming back to life to a normal life, a bit less COVID-centered.

I see more appetite than gloom for our beauty products. As far as other parts of the world, too soon to see anything particular in Europe, all the more as we have the comparative of lockdown last year w e'll have to see. As I said, the U.S. market remains globally pretty dynamic with slight variations between channels. But I have not seen this. So, uh-

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

No, for the time being, when we look at the cross figures of categories and geographies, they are all positive so far. For the time being, we don't see signs of loss of confidence in any of our categories for the time being.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

As far as Russia is concerned, first of all, a reminder because I think we discussed that in the previous call, but it's important to remind that Russia is less than 2% of our global business i t's close to 1.5%, over there, as we said, we've closed all our own stores, directly managed counters and directly operated e-commerce. In line with the European and U.S. sanctions, we've stopped basically selling all our luxury items and kept essential daily products which means mass market products or skincare, dermatological skincare products, that are very important for consumers' everyday life.

By the way, we've very recently started to ship again a few of these same essential daily products to some of our Ukraine customers. Again, at the request of their own clients who wanted and needed this product for their everyday life. That's for the situation in Russia.

Jeremy Fialko
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Okay, thank you.

Operator

We have the next question, sorry, from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thomas Sykes
Managing Director and Research Analyst in Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Good evening, everybody. I haven't heard that one on my surname before, but yeah, Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Firstly, just on the mix impacts at gross margin. Are you able to say whether the mix? impacts are positive to gross margin? perhaps pre the COGS increases that you've seen? You didn't really flesh out the growth of w ell, you fleshed out without numbers the growth of skin makeup, etc.

But is that overall net positive to gross margin as you see it? Then, you seem to allude to about 4.5% or at least 4.5% growth in value coming from price. Is that enough to offset all of the COGS inflation that you're seeing at the moment?

Just in terms of the growth of skin care and whether people are shifting budget away from skin care towards other areas of beauty, do you see that at the moment or do you just think that reopening is additive? You've obviously said that people are coping with inflation from your point of view at the moment or do you see some people switching from skin care into other categories, please?

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Okay. I'll ask Christophe to answer questions on gross margin, valorization, and mix impact, and I'll take the skincare question.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Okay. On gross margin, as you can imagine, there are many different effects. Yeah. First, overall, despite the price increase and the valorization, we won't be able to offset 100% of the inflation. There will be an impact in S1, a bit softer in S2, but there will be an impact. Second, there are some positive mix effect because, as you can see, we have a growth that is much stronger on both the luxury divisions and Active Cosmetics, compared to our mass market division, and this is driving a positive mix.

Of course, it's difficult to say right now because I'm still quite prudent because of this volatility to know what will be the right mix of sales by division in the Q2. For the time being, it's a positive mix. By category, despite the growth in makeup that is rebounding, but when you see other categories and namely fragrances, this is also benefiting from the mix. Both in terms of division and categories, for the time being, it's favorable.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Thank you. As far as the skincare category is concerned, there is no shifting away from this category, which remains globally very dynamic o f course, there are geographical impact. The skincare is by far the number one category in North Asia, which is a market that has slowed down because of lockdowns.

Overall, there is absolutely no consumer shifting away from skincare i would say on the contrary, both because skin issues are growing in the world, whether it's the impact of UV, of all the external stress factors, people are living longer, so this is the category that you use the longest. What's been new over the past three or four years is the entrance of younger consumers in this market, and they are continuing to use products.

What has shifted in the skincare market is truly the acceleration of, I would say, two subcategories of skincare o ne is the ultra-premium skincare, which grows all over the world, and including in Asia, where we have brands like Absolue from Lancôme or Helena Rubinstein that are really doing great. The what we call dermatological skincare or medical skincare, which is skincare prescribed or guaranteed by dermatologists, which coincides to an era where people are looking for safety, for trust, for quality. Brands like La Roche-Posay or CeraVe continues to fly, and you know.

I think that La Roche-Posay, which is the number one dermatological skincare brand in the world, has become the number seven skincare brand all over the world, all categories, all channels included t hat's very illustrative of a deep trend, which of course we've bet on for ages being the only group that has this dermatological beauty division. That's good because we have, I would say, brands and products on both of the ascending currents of skincare right now.

Thomas Sykes
Managing Director and Research Analyst in Equity Research, Deutsche Bank

Great. Thank you very much indeed.

Operator

We have another question from Jean-Olivier Nicolai from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Olivier Nicolai
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

I've got a couple of questions, please f irst of all, Nicolas, following up on your recent trip to Mexico, Latin America had a very strong sales growth this quarter. How should we think about extrapolating this strong double-digit growth going forward? Should we expect this to continue, or are you seeing any signs of pressure on consumers impacting demand yet? Also, could you give us an idea of the split by division within that region?

Second question, you've given us FX guidance, expecting a positive 4.4% impact on sales in full year 2022. Now, considering that many of your premium products are produced in France and sold abroad, can you give us an indication of the positive transactional FX impact you would expect on your operating profit this year? Thank you very much.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Okay. Yes, Latin America, it's true that the market is very dynamic. We estimate that the market itself was at around slightly above +10% or +10% approximately in Q1 over a very difficult quarter last year, which was -2% because of the COVID lockdowns. We see a rebound of the market, and more importantly, we are really outperforming this market j ust to answer on the market growth, I guess the market growth will continue to be positive, but probably will not have in the Q2 or Q3s the same favorable comparatives, so there might be a little bit of a slowdown.

What really matters and what impressed me in my trip over there, it's always good to read the numbers, but it's better when you see it in real life, is to see the way L'Oréal is overperforming the market. We are, you know, almost two times the market over there.

It's true in Mexico, it's true in Brazil. It's true in Chile, which are our three biggest markets, with a great performance of the Consumer Products Division, which I really wanna stress with great successes in hair care with Elvive that has become number one in Brazil, which is really gaining traction and bouncing back alongside Fructis in Mexico. Lots of good innovations, valorized innovations. Next to the CPD, we have a good performance of Active Cosmetics, but also of luxury.

I think we are gonna have a good year in Latin America. It's also, as in all emerging markets, a part of the world where we are really making a stride in e-commerce. As you know, as we have often explained, we see the e-commerce acceleration in emerging markets as a big opportunity for L'Oréal, and it allows us to, I would say, leapfrog the deep trade conquest that was never our forte.

We see the great dynamic. I think we are above +40% in e-commerce in Latin America. That's strong acceleration, and we see that also very good performances in Southeast Asia. We'll see how the market evolve, but I think, based on what I've seen, I'm confident it's gonna be a good year for L'Oréal in Latin America.

Olivier Nicolai
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Maybe to comment on Nicolai. Because of the growth of last year, we may see a stronger growth in first semester and a slower growth in second semester. Overall, we are very confident on this continent.

Operator

On FX, if possible?

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Yes, on FX, that's a good question. You know, FX, I will tell you, we did the calculation at the end of March, and in fact, we see a positive effect of 4.4%. We completed again this calculation on Friday, and it was up by more than 6%. So frankly speaking, for the time being, with the current volatility, I will not give any guidance on what will be the impact on at lower level. It's too complex.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. We have another question from Javier Escalante, from Evercore. Please go ahead.

Javier Manzo
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

I would like to go back to China, if I may i probably have missed it, but it may be helpful if you comment if you split the growth between online and offline, how you see the market growing, Hainan versus Mainland. Going forward, do you have any read of what's happening between these offline and online given the lockdowns? I have a follow-up on China, if I may.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Well, as far as the market is concerned, we see in terms of Hainan versus the domestic market, clearly Hainan is the strongest growth for the market and for L'Oréal, because it's really a destination that's being encouraged by the Chinese government but o verall, you know, we look at it globally, and we don't like to split it too much because you've got people that used to go to Hong Kong that go to Hainan. You've got right now Hong Kong is in lockdown, so it benefits Hainan even more.

What's important is that the local market in China remains dynamic, positive, and had a very good start and that we are overperforming it. We are playing our cards in the region strategically to make sure that we capture consumers wherever they shop, that's and then that we loyalize them if they are recruited through travel retail, and that's what our teams are doing and managing, by the way, in a very close cooperation between our travel retail team and our domestic China team.

As far as e-commerce is concerned, or brick and mortar in China, if I take North Asia globally, we see that e-commerce continues to grow. It's double-digit growth, whereas offline has been flattish impacted because offline has been the most impacted by the lockdowns. Within e-commerce, which is a question I think I did not totally answer earlier on, within e-commerce, there are lots of shifts in China, as we speak.

We see that Tmall in terms of traffic is a bit plateauing and in some events can be negative, whereas you see a strong acceleration of other retailers, JD.com, which you know, and I think the big phenomenon is the first steps which are now beginning to be big steps in e-commerce of Douyin, so the company that owns TikTok, where we are also beginning to sell our brands with pretty good results and beating the market. It's the beginning of the year, but with very complex situations and comparatives, it's more a flattish brick and mortar and a double-digit growth on e-commerce in North Asia.

Javier Manzo
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Thank you, Nicolas. Just to follow up on China, two things. What percentage of roughly, I mean, it used to be 50%, but I would believe that it's higher. What percentage of business is in e-commerce? Again, this commentary that you made that China somehow accelerated versus Q4, at least in January and February, that was great news.

What would you attribute that to? Is it that, you know, it's just simply that the innovation and the activity around the Lunar New Year and Valentine's Day and all that was very strong, or there is something else that happened in January and February that somehow got derailed in March because of the lockdowns? Thank you very much.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

The weight of e-commerce in China is at over 50% close to 65% ish. It continues to increase in its weight of our business. I would say that what's important is that it's more diversified today than it was you know a couple of years ago because we have more players that we are working with.

As far as the beginning of the year is concerned, frankly, it's hard for me to really give you a good reason i t's true that our teams really worked at, you know, great activations both for Chinese New Year, Women's Day, and the beginning of the year with very good results.

It's true that we are by far the leader of this market a ctually, even in luxury, we hit our highest record share in China at 30%. We probably did contribute with our innovations and activations to the dynamism of this market. Now, I cannot totally exclude, like in many parts of the world, you know, Chinese consumers also want to indulge themselves with beauty products.

Javier Manzo
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Thank you very much.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Maybe because I've been checking the figures, you know, since Q3, and honestly speaking, when I look at the market in terms of sell out, when I look at the performance of L'Oréal in terms of sell out or in terms of fill in, we see the figures quite consistent quarter- after- quarter for the time being till Q1. The same in terms of split between offline and online. We see an offline that is still negative for the time being, but online above double-digit growth, so.

Javier Manzo
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Evercore ISI

Very impressive. Thank you very much.

Operator

We have another question from Emma Sheridan, from RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, good evening. You mentioned that you're still selling essential products in Russia, and I was wondering how you think about reputational risk in the context of this, considering the backlash other consumer companies have faced in recent months for continuing to operate there. My second question is, you mentioned some huge outperformance in China and Latin America and global fragrance as well. Just wondering if you could talk a bit about your weak spots, you know, the categories and regions where you are maybe underperforming or outperforming to a smaller extent during Q1. Thank you.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Well, you know, regarding Russia, as I said, we are monitoring the situation extremely closely, both in terms of consumer sentiment, in terms of our team's sentiment, and you know, we are taking all the appropriate measures to offset any reputational risk. So far, I think that L'Oréal's position has been very well understood and very well accepted.

Of course, you know, should the situation warrant it, we will make new adjustments as we've done in the past. It's a very complex topic, and I think people understand it. That's for Russia. As far as weak spots, of course, we have lots of opportunities rather than weak spots i f I have to choose, you know, one weak spot for this quarter, rather than pointing a category or a country.

It's our supply that has been both penalized by the global context, by the fact that what we sold, the acceleration we've had on some products was not exactly always what we had forecasted. In yesterday's world, it was very easy to adapt and react quickly. Today, with the constraints weighing on transportation or availability of components and raw material, it is harder so w e have worked hard at fixing CeraVe, and we have a few other products that are now penalized in makeup or even in mass market skincare.

This is our number one weakness. This being said, we have plenty of opportunities. You know, as we often say, our market share is only 14%. It's probably closer to 10% or below 10% in Southeast Asia. When we see we can reach 20% in Western Europe, that gives us a lot of room for growth. Each country or each region has different opportunities in terms of categories and division and t hat's. I think that the. If I may take the opportunity of this question to insist on the point, it's the magic of the L'Oréal model.

Cause we have these 32 or 35 brands now that play on different types of consumer psyche and different price points and different categories. In our culture, in our organization, where we are centrally, strategically centralized and operationally decentralized, that it leaves each country manager the possibility to play its cards differently, you know, according to what's happening i f I take China, which we've discussed extensively.

Very clearly, we are dominant in skincare w e are pretty good in makeup, and these two categories will continue to grow. But we are quite early in our fragrance story. The fragrance market is beginning to boom in China, as we've commented.

We're also quite early in our haircare business. We've really restrategized our haircare in China, like in most countries, by the way, around more premium haircare, so more valorized, more profitable also, whether it's for Kérastase or for some of the valorized CPD innovations. In each country, each region, these cards will be played according to the local opportunities. Rather than weaknesses, I see a lot of opportunities.

Speaker 15

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

We have another question from Rogerio Fujimori from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Rogerio Fujimori
Analyst and Head of Research and Consumer Sector Specialist, Stifel

Good evening, everyone t hank you for taking my question i just have a follow-up question on e-commerce. I was just wondering if you could give us some color on your e-commerce performance in direct-to-consumer versus..

E-tailers like Sephora and pure online players like Amazon w hat I mean is which segments outperformed the 8% like-for-like global average e-commerce growth in Q1? Was it the higher margin DTC or the other channels? Just to think about any potential margin implications, if any. I think back in 2019, you disclosed the mix being more or less a little over 40% DTC. So how different is it in Q1 versus 2019? Thank you.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Well, if I look at the beginning of the year, as always, you know, you have to be very cautious with extrapolations on one quarter, particularly when we are facing comparatives, when you had lockdowns and of brick-and-mortar i f I look today at the e-commerce performance, pure players are driving the growth. D2C is doing okay and w hat's most difficult are the e-retailers because all their stores are reopening.

If you take the customers you've mentioned, they were in many countries with store closed. Now they are reopening, so there is this same rebalancing that we've seen even in our own business with a brick-and-mortar growth that is higher than e-commerce w hen you have stores, there is a rebalancing there. That's really a Q1 phenomenon.

Our policy remains to continue to serve consumers wherever they wanna shop, whether it's D2C, which continues to be strategic for us, pure players, which have, you know, massive reach, and e-retailers, who are themselves pushing their e-commerce as a way to serve all consumers. Looking ahead, we'll continue to try to push all three channels as it relates to e-commerce.

Rogerio Fujimori
Analyst and Head of Research and Consumer Sector Specialist, Stifel

Thank you.

Operator

We have another question from Eva Quiroga from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Eva Quiroga
Analyst, Bank of America

Yes, thank you very much. I was wondering, Nicolas, if you can go back to digital and the comment you just made about the rebalancing between brick-and-mortar and e-commerce. Is that something that's just an e-com issue? or is the strong growth in categories like fragrances, which I presume are more brick-and-mortar also helping?

Then my second question on digital is, when I think back of the financial crisis, your sales growth, especially in luxury, did come under a lot of pressure a t the same time, you launched a product like Génifique, which did really, really well. Is it fair to assume that now that you have so much more access to data, you will be able to manage the volume price component in a way that the volatility is going to be less pronounced if you go into a tougher consumer environment? Lastly, I was just wondering if you can talk a little bit about travel retail outside China, if you see any pickup there.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Just to be quick on digital, I think it's a comp effect. I think it's nothing more. Of course, we know consumers enjoy going back to some experiential shopping with the stores reopening. Overall, they've taken the online shopping habit. It's convenient, and it's always gonna be, which is why we often talk about a world when it will be 50/50 like it is today in China. It's that you have, on the one hand, the convenience and also the ability to find the right price online, and you have the experience, the ability to smell a fragrance in store.

I don't think there is more than in this beginning of the year, more than a comp effect in this slight rebalancing, because in the end, it's the growth numbers are quite close between the two channels. Regarding your second question, I apologize because we had some sound or line issues. Your question was not super audible, so if you don't mind repeating it, that would be great.

Eva Quiroga
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, I was just wondering if you can talk a little bit about you now having so much more access to data, if that is going to help you, maneuver through any retail consumer environment more effectively than you did back in the financial crisis h ow important is? it in your ability to balance volume versus price and mix?

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Well, I think first of all, what allows us to mitigate risks even before data, which of course adds our ability to forecast more accurately and to tailor-make our answers to consumers' expectations. It's our balance. It's the balance we have between geographies, divisions, the number of brands we have w e have many more brands than we had back during the financial crisis.

Some are regional, some are global, and that allows us to cater to the needs of consumers wherever they wanna shop and i think going back to one of the questions, because I think I heard in the first version of your question that you mentioned the luxury downturn that happened during the financial crisis. I think we are not even close to experiencing a luxury downturn. We see many people that are affluent and even the middle classes want to indulge.

By the way, it's not by mere chance that our luxury division continues to grow at such a high pace at +17.5% this quarter i t's because, of course, they're doing a fantastic job, and they are beating their market, but the overall demand for luxury products and premiumized products is very high t he market is premiumizing overall C hristophe, you want to add something?

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Yes, if I don't forget that when we speak about luxury, it's important to address, of course, Asia, and in particular China. It's in this country where we have a considerable amount of data, first-party data to start with.

We know very well, you know, how to leverage better the pocket of growth that we want to look for. In terms of market share, we know that in tier three to five, we are probably at 1/3 of the market share that we have on tier one. In terms of penetration, we know that in tier three to five, we are at 1/2 the penetration that we have in the first two tiers e verything, I'm mentioning right now is thanks to the data that we get from China.

I have to say that, for sure, compared to five years ago, data would be a strong lever to compete with a potential slowdown in the market b ecause, again, we see many more opportunities than risk today in China.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Regarding travel retail, Q1 was a very strong quarter for travel retail overall with high double-digit growth. What was probably the event of the quarter, even though we remain far from the 2019 numbers, is the very strong rebound of international traffic in the Western world in particular e ven in the context of the Ukrainian invasion in March, we've seen the traffic and the business bounce back strongly in Western Europe, in Europe in general, by the way. We've done a good performance in Europe.

As far as Hainan is concerned, as I said, there was a strong growth in Q1, particularly around Chinese New Year, where we did gain significant market share during this period with great animations i wish you could see the pictures of Lancôme, YSL, or Armani w e are now number one in Haitang Bay, which is the number one mall in Hainan, which is the high-quality mall.

Just looking ahead because, you know, this is not gonna be stopping, there's another gigantic mall project which is underway in the north of the island, so on the other side. That should be open at the end of the year with 29,000 sq m of beauty space. It's 2.5 times the size of Haitang Bay.

This is also quite promising because this is definitely in a place where Chinese consumers will go. You know, hopefully again, you know, with all the subdued precautions considering the volatile context we live in, we see a continuous rebound of the traffic and consumption in the Western world. Hainan remaining with, of course, the Korean duty-free stores, a destination for North Asian shoppers.

Operator

We have our last question from Janice Simpson from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Janice Simpson
Client Service Executive, Barclays

Thank you very much. A couple of questions from me, if I may. Firstly, you talked about headwinds from U.S. supply chain issues in the Q1 . Are you able to give any indication as to how big that might be? and how much of that headwind might drop out in Q2? You indicated that there would still be some headwind in Q2.

Secondly, if we could just think a little bit about the margin bridge for this year. You've said A&P will be down as a percentage of sales, albeit up in absolute terms, and obviously reiterated margin expansion. Would it be reasonable then to assume perhaps gross margins slightly down this year, from the very strong gross margin performance you had last year?

Just finally, I wondered if you could give any comment on India. At the start of this year, you talked about LATAM and India as two potential growth engines going forward. It's clear from your earlier commentary that LATAM is going very well indeed. I just wondered if you could give any commentary on how India had started the year. Thank you so much.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Yes, yes. No, as far as the industrial headwinds in North America, frankly, I've nothing much to add to what was already said. It has been material for our mass market division, and to a lesser extent for ACD, which is getting closer to resolution. There will be, I guess, an impact on Q2, but hopefully lesser than on Q1. There's not much more I can elaborate on at this point. It's very hard to measure. The on-shelf availability was okay in some categories, but not good enough in makeup and CPD skincare.

We are working very hard to make things better, but everything is unfortunately not in our hands. That should, you know, improve as the year progresses. Regarding your second questions on the P&L, I think your assumptions are right. We should see a reduction in the gross margin and other lines of the P&L allowing to continue to deliver growth. I insist on that because when we talk about our A&Ps, we talk about fuel, and fuel is what it takes for a plane to fly high and fast.

Of course, we'll always do what it takes to overperform the market and to continue to conquer market share and to boost our brands short-term and long-term desirability. As you said, like, you know, last year was a year where we could afford to increase very significantly a percentage of A&P and i think we should be able this year to find, you know, the right balance between percentages and absolute value while continuing to support our brands. Christophe, do you want to add something?

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Don't forget also that we are still working on the SG&A, that they should still decrease this year. We are pretty confident regarding the bottom line, and we will still increase the bottom line in a nice way like we did in the past years.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

As far as India is concerned, it's been a good quarter, with India up 20%. It's been mainly driven by our professional business, but also by our CPD skincare, as in all emerging, a good acceleration in e-commerce. But what I want to say about India is that we are too small there i t's still one of the markets in the world where we have one of our lowest market shares. One of the key missions of our team in India and of our consumer division, because it's really a mass market business, is to continue to accelerate to bring our market share to where it should be.

It will take maybe some time, but what we see is that considering the fact that our market share in e-commerce is superior to our market share in brick-and-mortar, and that the market is really accelerating in e-commerce, I think we are in a good position to improve on our score in this very beautiful and huge country.

Janice Simpson
Client Service Executive, Barclays

Thank you so much.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

We have no other questions.

Françoise Leva
Chairwoman, Téthys

Thank you very much. If we have no further questions then.

Nicolas Hieronimus
CEO, L'Oréal

Thank you very much to everybody for listening.

Christophe Babule
CFO, L'Oréal

Thank you.

Françoise Leva
Chairwoman, Téthys

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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