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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

Apr 11, 2024

Operator

Good morning. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Publicis Groupe First Quarter 2024 Revenue Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one at any time. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arthur Sadoun, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Judith. Bonjour, and welcome to Publicis Groupe Q1 2024 Revenue Call. I am Arthur Sadoun, and I'm here in Paris with our CFO, Loris Nold. I will begin this session by sharing our Q1 highlights. You will see that we are starting this year on our front foot. Then Loris will provide more details on our member. Finally, I will conclude with our outlook for the rest of the year. As usual, we will take all of your questions together after the presentation. Jean-Michel Bonamy is also here and will be available to take your question offline after this session. But before we start, please take the time to read the disclaimer, which is an important legal matter. Okay, to sum up this presentation, I would say we had a very strong start to the year.

We continued to win market share by sustaining our organic growth momentum with +5.3% in Q1, ahead of expectations. This is a good performance, as we are resisting despite what is still a very challenging microeconomic environment impacting the entire industry. We are gaining market share by outperforming our peers by 400 basis points on average versus consensus, and we are accelerating on growth compared to our 4-year CAGR for the first quarter of 4.3% on the top of a high comparable of 7.1%. This very good start to the year and the strengths of our model mean we are confident, and more confident than ever actually, in delivering on our 2024 organic growth guidance while maintaining industry high financial ratios. There are 4 highlights when it comes to Q1.

First, Epsilon and Publicis Media continue to be strongly accretive to our performance. Demand for marketing transformation remain high, particularly with the rise of AI and personalization at scale in a soon-to-be cookieless world. Epsilon was up 6.8% organically this quarter after double-digit growth in Q1 2023, capturing the continued client need for identity-based media solution. Media, a third of our revenue, was up double digits again in Q1 after 2 years of double-digit growth. This was due to both new contract wins and organic growth with existing clients. Second highlights, as anticipated, Publicis Sapient recorded sequential improvement in Q1 2024 versus Q4 2023 by delivering a modest -1.1% this quarter. In the U.S., Publicis Sapient's largest market, we actually returned to positive growth at +2.2% in the quarter.

This is encouraging in a context where IT consultancies have not yet seen clients resume CapEx spend on DBT, as recently expressed by the leader of the market. As we said in February, we remain confident that Publicis Sapient will return to grow over the course of the year. Third, creative continued to show its resilience with low single-digit growth this quarter, driven by new business, scope expansion, and a solid performance from production. Last but not least, fourth highlight, all of our regions performed well. The U.S., our largest geography, continued to post strong growth with +5% this quarter on the top of +5.8% last year. Europe continued this positive momentum with +6.1% organic growth on the top of +15% in 2022 and +12% in 2023.

The region benefited from strong performances, notably in France and CE. It's also interesting to note that the creative and media in the UK grew double digits this quarter, while Publicis Sapient faced tough comparable in Q1 2023 at +44%. In Asia Pac, organic growth was +6.2%, with a very solid China at +6.7% and a strong Southeast Asian performance driven by media. Overall, after outperforming our peers by 500 basis points last year, we are sustaining this dynamic in Q1 by continuing to win market share, expecting to deliver the highest organic growth of the industry for the eighth quarter in a row. Looking at our 4-year CAGR, we are clearly accelerating on our growth in Q1 and plan to keep doing so for the rest of the year.

I will tell you more about this after Loris take you through the detail of our numbers.

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Arthur, and good morning to all of you. It's a pleasure to be with you today. I will begin with the evolution of our net revenue for the first quarter of the year. The group posted a net revenue of EUR 3.23 billion in Q1 2024, which represents an organic growth of +5.3%. This comes on top of +7.1% last year, and is ahead of our expectation, as Arthur just explained. Reported growth was at +4.9%. We recorded an EUR 18 million positive impact from acquisitions and disposals. This mostly includes the contribution of Practia and Corra, acquired in the last 12 months. This quarter, foreign exchange rates contributed a EUR -29 million, which is equivalent to circa -1% of net revenue.

This was mainly driven by EUR -22 million related to the evolution of the USD to EUR FX rate. Let's move on to the next slide, which gives the dynamics of our Q1 organic growth by geography. North America continued to see strong organic growth this quarter, at +4.8%. The impact of the USD to EUR was -120 basis points on growth this quarter. Together with the impact of acquisition, this led to a +3.6% reported growth overall in the region. Europe posted a very solid +6.1% organic growth, despite a challenging double-digit comparable in Q1 2023, thanks to the strong performances of France and CE.

Asia Pacific posted a strong +6.2% organic growth, fueled both by China at high single digits, improving from the last quarter, as well as a strong Southeast Asia. Middle East and Africa and Latin America both posted solid organic growth, +4% and +7.8%, respectively. I will now detail the performance of each region on the following slides. Let's begin with North America. As I have just said, our operation in the region posted +4.8% organic growth in Q1, mainly driven by the U.S. at +5%, while Canada was stable. Let's focus on the U.S., representing 60% of group net revenue, where our operations grew +5% organically, as I just mentioned, coming on top of +4.58% for the same period last year.

Media and Epsilon continued to be accretive to growth this quarter, confirming the strengths of our integrated offer in this geography. Media grew at a double-digit rate this quarter. This was supported by both new business won in 2023, and scope expansions at existing clients, particularly in food and beverage, retail, and healthcare. Creative posted broadly stable growth in this quarter. Publicis Sapient posted a positive organic growth in Q1, sequentially improving from Q4 2023. This performance was particularly solid, considering the +8% growth in Q1 last year, and the current wait-and-see attitude of clients when it comes to DBT projects and CapEx spend. Epsilon posted a high single-digit organic growth in Q1, benefiting from a strong contribution from digital media and data, driven by ongoing demand for identity-led and first-party data solutions. Let's turn to the performance of Europe on the following slide.

As I mentioned earlier, Europe recorded an organic growth of +6.1%. The UK, which is 9% of group net revenue in Q1, was slightly positive in the quarter, on top of a high comparable base of +24% in Q1 2023. Media activities grew double digits in Q1 2024, like in Q1 2023, driven mainly by global wins of 2023. Creative activities also posted double-digit organic growth in Q1 2024, fueled by new business wins and scope expansions. Publicis Sapient, which represents one third of revenue in the country, posted negative organic growth in Q1 against a particularly high comparable in Q1 2023. As highlighted in the last call, we are still facing delays in DBT project and CapEx spend, as experienced by other IT consulting firms.

France, which represents 6% of group net revenues in Q1, posted a very strong organic growth at +9.4%. Media posted high single-digit growth on the back of very solid growth in Q1 2023, thanks to scope expansions. Creative activities grew mid-single digits, and Publicis Sapient was up double digits again this quarter. Germany, representing 3% of group net revenue, posted a mid-single digit growth on top of double-digit organic growth in Q1 2023. Media grew by double digits, mostly on the back of global clients, which follows double-digit growth in Q1 2023, while creative was soft. Let's finish with Central and Eastern Europe. The performance in the region was very strong at +21.2% organic, as it benefited from global wins, ramping up in both media and production.

Turning to the next slide, where I will detail our performance in the rest of the world. In Asia Pacific, which represents 8% of group net revenue in Q1, we delivered +6.2% organic growth. Overall, in the region, media grew double digits on top of double digits in Q1 2023. Publicis Sapient posted high single-digit growth in the region. China posted a very solid performance at +6.7% organic growth in the quarter, sequentially improving versus Q4 2023, largely driven by client wins in media. This is also the case for Southeast Asia, with Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia as main contributors. Australia was broadly stable in the quarter. In Middle East and Africa, we posted a +4% organic growth in Q1, benefiting from strong creative, mainly led by UAE.

Latin America posted a +7.8% organic growth, driven by both creative and media, and with Brazil, Mexico, and Chile largely contributing to the region's performance. On the next slide, you will find the group performance by client industry for the quarter. This is based on an analysis of our main clients, representing 92% of our net revenues. It also excludes outdoor media activities and the Drugstore. This quarter, most of our client industries recorded positive growth. First, I do want to single out that in Q1, the tech sector, representing 12% of our net revenue, posted a very strong performance at +11% growth. This was fueled by a combination of expanded scope at existing clients and new business gains.

When it comes to the other sectors, healthcare recorded double-digit growth on top of double-digit growth in Q1 2023, thanks to new business wins across different activities and scope expansion at existing clients. Financial and retail were both down by mid-single-digit. Regarding the financial sector, it received a lower contribution from Publicis Sapient this quarter, being impacted by delays in DBT projects in Europe and a tough comparable, particularly in the UK. The retail sector faced a double-digit comparable from last year. And finally, both auto and food and beverage delivered high single-digit growth. Moving to the next slide, net financial debt.

The Group's closing net debt at the end of March was EUR 445 million, representing a net cash out of circa EUR 1.3 billion over the quarter, showing the usual negative seasonality of working capital at this period of the year. This compares to a net cash out of circa EUR 1.1 billion in Q1 2023. The variation of circa EUR 200 million was fully anticipated, first linked to the increase in the total cash payment for M&A in Q1, and second, to the change in working capital, fully factored in our full year expectations on working capital. On M&A, specifically, we are on track with our full year budget of EUR 700 million-EUR 800 million, as announced at our full year 2023 earnings call.

The twelve-month average net debt was EUR 383 million at end of Q1 2024. This is EUR 180 million below end of Q1 2023 level, and EUR 49 million below end of 2023 level. We are fully on track to meet our average net debt objective for full year 2024 of circa EUR 400 million. This concludes my financial presentation, and now I give the floor back to you, Arthur.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Loris. As you have seen, Publicis is off to a very strong start in 2024. In Q1, we have demonstrated once again our ability to gain market share with an expected 400 basis point gap versus RPs. Since 2019, we grew by 24%, roughly twice as fast as the industry average over the same period. Thanks to the strength of our model, we expect to sustain this very solid growth across the year. Despite ongoing microeconomic headwinds, we are more confident than ever in delivering on our full year guidance and continuing to grow twice as fast as the industry average. There are three reasons for that confidence. First, demand for personalization at scale in a soon to be cookieless world continue to increase, particularly with the rise of AI.

We are able to capture a disproportionate part of our client investment in this area, thanks to our unique data offer, combined with our unmatched media scale. We anticipate Epsilon and Publicis Media, representing 50% of our revenue, to remain very strong and accretive to our growth. Second, we will benefit this year again from new business tailwind. Our unique go-to-market formula, connecting data, media, creative, and technology, all powered by AI, has enabled us to top the new business ranking for the past 5 years. We expect the wins we had in the last 18 months to continue ramping up this year and materially support our overall growth. Last but not least, our agile platform organization means that the growth we will achieve this year won't be at the expense of our margin.

Thanks to the efficiencies generated by our country model, global delivery centers, shared services, and our platform, Marcel, we are able to invest in our talent and our technology. One example is our roadmap on AI that we presented in January.... After spending close to EUR 9 billion since 2015 in data and technology acquisition, including Sapient and Epsilon, we are making an incremental OpEx investment of EUR 300 million over the next three years. Half will be focused on upskilling, training, and recruitment of our people, and the other half on technology through licenses, IT software, and cloud infrastructure. This investment will allow us to evolve and accelerate to become an AI-powered intelligent system company.

Thanks to CoreAI , we will be able to connect every data point across all activities, business units, and geographies, and put them in the hand of our people to supercharge our client growth. We are on track to launch it, both for ourselves and for our clients, in three steps over the course of the year. This investment will even further strengthen our offer and undoubtedly leading to more market share gains in the year to come. All of this while maintaining the highest financial ratios of our industry. When you look at our organic growth guidance, +4% is rock solid.

Factor in a continued wait-and-see attitude from clients when it comes to digital business transformation spend, still affecting Publicis Sapient, like all the other IT consulting firms, more cuts in classic advertising spend as clients reduce certain costs, and a cautious stand on year-end adjustment in advertiser budget. The higher range of our guidance at +5% is definitely within reach. If we see a faster ramp-up of clients resuming CapEx spend on DBT project in the second half of 2024, benefiting Publicis Sapient, and fewer cuts to classic advertising. In this scenario, we will see an acceleration in 2024, compared with our four-year CAGR at +4.7%, while outperforming our peers for another year despite our tougher comps. This organic growth performance won't come at the expense of our financial ratios.

We will continue to deliver industry-high financial KPIs with our full year operating margin guidance at 18% and free cash flow of EUR 1.8 billion-EUR 1.9 billion. For Q2, we are confident in delivering solid organic growth, again, in line with our full year guidance, despite high comparable of +7.1% last year and ongoing macro uncertainties. Voilà. To wrap up, we are starting 2024 on the front foot, sustaining our growth momentum. Coming on top of a high comparable, we delivered a very strong Q1 ahead of expectation. We saw a clear acceleration of our growth compared with our 4-year CAGR, demonstrating our ability to continue to win market share. In a still challenging macroeconomic context, our leadership in personalization at scale, our new business wins, and our platform organization make us confident to confirm our guidance for 2024.

Our expected performance, which is well above the industry average, could show a further acceleration of our organic growth in 2024 versus our four-year CAGR. Last but not least, we will maintain industry high financial ratios while investing EUR 300 million in the next three years in AI to truly become an intelligent system company. I would like to thank our clients for their trust and our people for their outstanding work. Thank you all for listening, and now with Loris, we are ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Nicolas Langlet of BNP. Please go ahead.

Nicolas Langlet
Equity Analyst, BNP

Yes, hello, everyone, and congrats on the, on the second Q1. So I've got three question, please. The first one, on the net new business tailwinds, was the impact in Q1 stronger compared to previous quarter? And looking at the next few quarters, how do you expect that impact to evolve? And then, I'll be curious if you have already reflected the recent creative business win from Pfizer into the full year guidance or not. Secondly, on Sapient, so we see a recovery in the US. Is it broad-based with various clients, or it's just a couple of projects that really made a difference? And looking at Q2, should we expect the overall Sapient to return to growth, or it's more a H2, H2 outlook?

And finally, on the tech client spending rebound, do you think this is a sustainable rebound or just a short-term catch-up after the cut in past quarters? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Merci, Nicolas. Thank you. A lot of question. I'm taking notes in order not to forget anything. I guess I'll start with the new business win in Q1. Look, what happened is pretty simple, is that as you know, it takes time to ramp up new business wins, particularly when you are talking about structural win, implying hundreds of people. And so, the acceleration we have seen is due to wins we had 12-18 months ago that went faster with a system that is, I guess, important for you guys, because we, we talk a lot at the moment about GenAI in production and these kind of things, but where AI is truly having a major impact on our clients, and by the way, on our revenue, when you look at Q1, is this acceleration of personalization at scale.

I mean, clients are realizing that not only they have to move away from third-party cookies because of Google, but that AI can help them actually accelerate. It's true that the offer we've got have accelerated that and had an impact on Q1, particularly, on new business. The question you raised on new business, and you talk about Pfizer, is something I would like to be clear on, is that, when it comes to new business, and hopefully you have seen that with us, Nicola, for a while now, we consider ourself today as a platform company, like an Accenture, like a Google, or like a McKinsey. The product and the service we deliver are under very strict firewalls.

And so just like Accenture, Google or McKinsey, we are not sharing anymore any confidential information on our clients. So I won't be able to answer your question. I would ask you to judge us on our capability, again, to win market share, which is definitely what we did in Q1, and show the strengths of our model through our growth, compared to competition. On Sapient, I mean, I don't want to be optimistic on Sapient, because I see very strong competitors and very good competitors, on the IT consulting, posting negative results and actually lowering down their guidance. So I think we should be extra cautious, okay? And that's very important you take that into consideration.

Having said that, we were pleased to see that the sequential improvement we had was good, and that the U.S., as you said, was coming back to growth. It is due to something very simple that hopefully will increase with time, which is when we talk about business transformation, as Accenture, Deloitte or Capgemini, you have a couple of phases. You know, you pitch, then you win the project, and you start doing a consulting phase, where you have a part of a revenue, but this is not the majority. And then you have the execution, where you move to CapEx when you talk to clients. What has been slowed down is this part, is the part of execution.

The reason why the U.S. is improving is because some project have actually started in terms of CapEx and are pushing our growth on what is, by the way, a highly difficult quarter for us, as the comparable is very high. I'm looking at Loris's, but I remember it's 11%, for Q1 last year for Sapient, so the comparable is very high. It's really what we are expecting, hopefully, on a broader sense, which is the client that we still have, we didn't lose any clients, that are starting to realize that now it might be the right time to continue to invest in their transformation and starting to invest again, with us and with Pfizer, pardon, with Pfizer, with Sapient.

When we talk about the tech rebound, again, it's too early to know how the rest of the year would be, but I think it's very interesting to see that we move from -7 to +11, which is a very good number. And that within this number, the one that are really pushing the growth in TMT are the tech clients. The fifth biggest growth in the TMT areas are tech clients. And why it is the case is because our offer basically match with what they are expecting. First of all, we have a first-party data approach that match with their own first-party data, because this is where they are. Second, we have a tech culture that makes a difference.

And third, as we are able to connect, thanks to AI, data, media and production and creative, we are able to truly bring them the personalization at scale they need. So it is encouraging. It's too early to say if it is a long-term trend or just an improvement, but we feel confident about that. I hope I answer all of your point. I mean, there are so many questions that I tried to sum up as much as I could.

Nicolas Langlet
Equity Analyst, BNP

It's perfect, Patrick. Thank you very much.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah.

Operator

The next question is from Lisa Yang, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yes, good morning. I have a couple of questions as well. So obviously, Q1, you're already at 5.3%, which seems still negative, so why wouldn't you be above 5% for the rest of the year, given the new business ramp and improvement Sapient, that even that 5% looks a bit conservative. So are you expecting maybe additional headwinds, or was there any shift of spending into Q1? So if you can maybe just help us understand why you shouldn't be doing better than 5. That's the first question. The second one is a follow-up on the tech rebound.

Could you just, and I think the same question apply for China, but could you confirm that the improvement is mostly or entirely market share gain, and not necessarily underlying improvement in the market? So if you could maybe comment on what the clients saying or thinking compared to maybe a quarter ago, are you seeing any improvement in China and tech? And thirdly, just on the buyback, could you maybe give us an update in terms of where you are. I think you talked about EUR 200 million of buyback, but it sounds like, you know, it might have stopped lately. So, how much of the EUR 200 million have you already spent? And yeah, what are your intentions for the rest of the year?

Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Again, very dense question. Thank you, Lisa. So I'm gonna start with the 5%, then I will leave you the question on the improved tech, and I will come back on the buyback later. You know, it's a legitimate question you ask. I think that first it's very important to come back on Q1 and put things back in perspective, because I guess it says a lot about what is coming now. As you have seen, there are roughly three elements that explain the over performance we are in Q1. The first, and I talked about it a minute ago, but it's extremely important, is we see a material acceleration of demand from our clients when it comes to personalization at scale.

It's not only due to the deprecation of third-party cookies, but it's also due to the rise of AI. It's true that having Epsilon plus Publicis Media combined, representing the best or one of the best offering in the market, is a huge asset and a good reason for our confidence, and definitely the reason why we overperform with double-digit growth in the quarter. New business is ramping up, and we know it's gonna continue to ramp up. It particularly ramped up in Q1. It doesn't mean it will ramp up exactly in the same way in Q2, because, of course, if they ramp up faster in Q1, maybe it's a bit slower in Q2, but they will continue to do that, and they did it.

We see, as we just discussed, that the tax that was negative, so with actually easier comparable, are coming back to positive and helping us. So these are the reason why we did well in Q1, and why we feel confident. I think that now we, we have to be truly cautiously optimistic. Cautious, because the microeconomic tension are still there. I think that yesterday, the US CPI remind us that we are navigating into a very tough context. Honestly, when I saw that yesterday, I said, "Okay, we're definitely having the right stance here," okay? Let's be clear, this is impacting some of our clients, and I guess we see that also in the results that are coming. It is still a tough time because of the macro for some of our clients.

It is impacting our industry, and we have to listen to that. I mean, if you look at our direct competitors, but also when you look at IT consulting, you have some that are planning to be negative in Q1, and you have someone that also have already downgraded their guidance. So we definitely have to be cautious, okay? Now, again, we are confident, not to say, very confident, in delivering our guidance for the reason I, I just gave you. And maybe the shift will operate from where we talk in Q4 to today, is that now we see four as a floor, and I gave you all the conditions for that, so we feel very, very, very rock solid about it.

The 5% is definitely within reach, which again will be a great performance because it will mean that we will accelerate again on our growth on the four-year CAGR, which is what we're looking for. And we will basically growing twice as fast as the industry average, despite the comparable we are having. Now, you know us, we're gonna wait until the end of H1 to really update you on the guidance and the detail of what could be the rest of the year. Loris, you wanna take question, too?

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah, sure. Lisa, you're right to be asking the question on the tech rebound in China together, because the common denominator between the two is really market share gains. As Arthur mentioned, on the tech side, if you look at the overall TMT sector for us, which is growing 11%, the top five increase in that sector are tech clients. So this is really scope increases, i.e., market share gains. Moving to China, it's true that in Q1, we recorded a remarkable acceleration with 6.7% growth. That actually comes on the back of growth in Q4 2023. But you know, put things in perspective, this strong performance is happening in a context that remains very challenging in China, with an economic outlook that is uncertain.

We know there is softness, both in the real estate market, but also in the consumer and corporate spending that are likely to continue into Q2. So our performance was really driven by a market share gain, and in particular around media. I was actually in China just two weeks ago, and I saw it with my own eyes. This is really possible through the superiority of our talent and capabilities that we have demonstrated over the years. Here again, the use of data and tech to reconnect marketing with business outcomes.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I'm quickly gonna take your question about cash allocation. So again, it is not a topic for Q1, but to be clear, we have not changed, and we won't change, the strategy we laid out to you in Q4. We have three pillars to our strategy. First, as you know, we have our dividend, that we have significantly increased. I'm not gonna come back on everything we did to stop applying the discount for payments, the fact that we suppressed the scrip dividend. But if you look, we have increased our payout ratio consistently. We are today at 49%, if I'm right, and we are proposing a EUR 900 million dividend for the year.

I mean, I think it's good for our shareholders to see that all of this has led to a 70% increase in dividend, and we have returned more than EUR 2.2 billion in cash over the last three years, okay? The second thing that we did that I know was important for the financial community is that we have stabilized the number of shares. We have introduced, to come back to your question, an active share repurchase program to make sure that we stabilize the share count. And that, again, is a big change for us, and means that since 2021, we have spent more than EUR 500 million in share buyback. And to come back to your question, we are planning now to do another one for EUR 200 million in 2024.

Last but not least, M&A. I'm sure you will have some question about that, and Loris can tell you more in a second if you want to. Again, we have invest, as you know, roughly EUR 1 billion in the last three years. I think it's important for you guys to see that this has been growing 40%. So it shows the interest of the acquisition we made and how it's leveraging the entire model. We plan to spend roughly between EUR 700 million and EUR 800 million this year. Again, there have been a lot of question about what, what is the right balance between cash return and investment to our goals. I think we found the right balance, whether it be on margin or in terms of cash allocation.

If you look in terms of cash return, we have a TSR today of 160% over the last four years, okay? And when you look at our goals, we have the stronger growth over the years now for a while, and so we believe we have the right balance here. Wow, that was two long questions. A lot of question into two questions. Lisa, if it's fine for you, we're gonna move to next one.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. All good. Thank you. Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Silvia Cuneo at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Silvia Cuneo
Director, Deutsche Bank

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Also three questions from my side. The first one is a follow-up on the macro environment that you mentioned. It's still impacting the industry, and you gave the context on your guidance. Just want to clarify, perhaps, if you've seen any changes compared to the time of the conference call of the Q4 results, any data points that you might want to flag, and you mentioned Sapient in the U.S. So overall, just trying to understand if you're feeling a little bit more confident or as, I mean, as in the Q4 state, in terms of uncertainties. Then the second question is about any updates that you might be in a position to share in terms of rolling out of the CoreAI capabilities you've been investing on.

Then just finally, on the double-digit growth for creative in the UK, that stands out compared to the group creative performance. Just wondering if you could comment about this outperformance here, and whether that is sustainable for 2024. Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much. I'm gonna talk about the level of confidence, then I'm gonna leave you the question on the UK, as a couple of weeks ago, you were still the CEO of this region, and I'll take CoreAI to finish. So, look, now, I would say the confidence is the same, meaning, we are expecting 2024 to be roughly the same as 2023. We see some macroeconomic tension. We see some clients that are suffering and sometimes cutting some traditional advertising project, which is one of the reason why, although they are very resilient, the creative is not as high as the other. As we discussed, see some slowdown and wait-and-see attitude from our client in digital business transformation.

I would say nothing special has changed, and this is why, again, we believe we have to be cautious because the context is tough. But we can be confident because the model we have perfectly fit with our client demand. At the moment, where despite the difficulties, they will have to transform. Again, if you look at Q1, for me, the most important news is this kind of acceleration in personalization at scale, because it means that maybe our client, at the moment, are waiting a bit before making big business transformation in their infrastructure, but they are definitely accelerating on their marketing transformation, I guess, a lot because of AI, and that's a big opportunity for us that we are seizing.

I would say, to cut the long story short, expect, at least for us at the moment, 2024 to look a bit like 2023, and by the way, the same trends by expertise. You want to take the UK?

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Happy to. Just to take a step back, maybe on the UK. I mean, as I said earlier, we posted a slightly positive growth, but keep in mind, it's on the back of +24% in Q1 2023. We have two distinct situation when we look at the UK today. First, Publicis Sapient, as we said, that delivered a negative performance, but after a very tough comparable in Q1 2023, where our organic growth was above 40%. And second, media and creative, that both delivered double-digit growth after double digits and high single digits, respectively in Q1 2023.

Now, specifically on creative, and you know that we don't comment on new business wins, but really the acceleration of the UK's performance in the last 24 months has been largely driven by new business on the creative side. So it's, it's one of the markets where we are winning market share. Same comment as I made on China, and so it's new business driven for the most part.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I'm not gonna add anything, but we are, we are very, very pleased about the dynamics that we have at the UK at the moment. It's we have a fantastic team, and the work that has been done is outstanding, and it's really good. On AI, I mean, we could do an hour on AI. What can I tell you? First, since we announced in Jan our intention to really become an intelligence system company, we had a great reaction from our people first, which is, I won't say that matter the most, but we need them to do it because it's still a people business, and we are here to empower them with AI, and the return has been outstanding and a huge interest from our clients.

Which makes a big difference, and I'll come back to that later. We have made very good progress in building our CoreAI. As you know, it's all about connecting our trillions of data points and make sure that we can put it in the hand of our people, in order for them to turbocharge our client goals. We are growing very fast, again, thanks to Sapient and thanks to AI, in our ability to put this CoreAI to life. And again, we have huge advantage here. We have data that no one else has with Epsilon. We have a single infrastructure, which means that we can put everything in common, and we have more than 40,000 engineers, and particularly in Sapient, that can put that in place. So we feel good about that.

We have started to invest our strong 100 million, so it's EUR 100 million this year, in training and upscaling, but also making sure that we get the right tech and licensing to continue our development. What is very interesting and by the way super encouraging is that we are starting to work with our clients on some projects. We haven't waited for everything to be ready to start experiencing with our clients how we can do things. I've got to be careful here, because this is part of our secret sauce, and there are things that I can tell you and things that I can't tell you, because again it's part of our competitiveness.

But if you look, for example, at what we are doing at the moment on CPG, where we are really connecting the inventory, which is what you find on the shelf, with identity, which is how client behave, it's incredible to see how the CPG world can change thanks to that. And again, when we said that what is great about AI is not that much efficiency, it's good, but it's not what we're looking for the most, is to be able to do things tomorrow that we can't do today. This is a great example. If you look at what we do on auto, for example, we are starting to build rich customer profile that can actually predict the next purchasing moment.

And when you know that it happens every three or four years, our ability to choose, thanks to the AI, the next best action to really reach the new prospect, is again, something that is super exciting and will deliver growth at a better cost for our clients. And when it comes to, pharma, which is, as you have seen, a booming segment for us, our ability to ensure compliance in what is a truly highly regulated industry, thanks to AI, again, make a difference. So if I've got to sum up, I think that our people and our clients have bought our vision.

We are going very fast in getting all of those trillions of data points together, thanks to AI, through Sapient, and we are connecting this CoreAI to all of our activities, starting to work with clients on projects that are super encouraging. I tried to make it fast.

Silvia Cuneo
Director, Deutsche Bank

Yes, thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Adrien de Saint-Hilaire, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Adrien de Saint-Hilaire
Managing Director, Bank of America

Yep. Good morning, everyone. Well done for a solid quarter. I've got a couple of topics that I would like to spend some time on, if you don't mind. So first of all, on Epsilon, I'm a little surprised that the growth there has been slowing, given the cookie deprecation theme and your comments are clear about the rise of personalization at scale. So do you mind explaining a bit what's happening here? And maybe also talk about the rollout and the expansion of Epsilon internationally beyond the U.S., your degree of confidence or replicating the U.S. success into Europe and Asia. And then the second topic, again, sorry, sticking to AI, how is CoreAI being charged or billed to clients?

Is there a specific additional fee, you know, when CoreAI is being used, or is that part of the standard offering? Thank you very much.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

That's part of the secret sauce, the second question, so I will have to keep it for myself at the moment. What I can tell you is a priority is to put the CoreAI in the hands of every of our people, and make sure that then we can connect the CoreAI with what we charge, which is media, creative, software engineering, business transformation in general. And so although I won't answer your question, what I can tell you for sure is that we didn't build the CoreAI to be first a source of revenue, but to be first an incredible differentiator in what we can bring to our client, and how we can leverage AI.

Because, again, we love, as every of our competitors, what we do in GenAI with some of the big tech companies, there is a lot of things we can do in terms of content and creating images, and that's awesome. But the truth is, AI becomes interesting when it's really at the service of unique data sets that goes along the entire company, and that can irrigate everything you do, not only in content, but in media, in software engineering, in insights, and this is where we have a big difference. So to cut the long story short, we are not building the CoreAI to have an additional source of revenue, although it could be.

We are doing this because it's truly transforming the entire company and bringing to our client a level of service and product that they can't find anywhere else, and that, by the way, justify a part of the gap we are creating in term of organic growth. So that was for AI, and the CoreAI. Then there is a question on Epsilon. Andrea, I wish, I have recorded what you said, because, telling me that, growth is slowing at 7%, when we made this acquisition a couple of years ago, and the market did not believe that we could go to 3%, it means that there is a long way since the perception you guys could have at the beginning, and the game changer Epsilon has been for us, by the way, thanks to the vision of Maurice Lévy.

It's, I love the question because it puts things back in perspective. What I can tell you, and what is fantastic about Epsilon, is that, there is a double positive effect for us... First, the old performance of Epsilon has been incredibly accretive, to the group, and is still accretive, by the way, by far, with 7%. Never forget that we had double digits growth for the last three years, okay? And again, starting from the premise that we bought this company on multiple, that we are assuming a growth between 0 and 3, which the market was doubting at the time, okay?

The second thing you need to know that it's not only having a direct impact on our growth and being accretive to what they do, they have an indirect impact on our other group assets, starting with Publicis Media. And this is why, by the way, we love to say that Epsilon plus Publicis Media is double-digit. Because it's a combination of the best data set in the industry, and beyond the industry, by the way, with the scale of Publicis Media, and the ability of those guys to work well together, on what is 50% of our business, that is delivering a very strong part of our goals. So again, 7% for us is still a very, very strong number, even more when you compare to how you put it in perspective with three years of double-digit growth.

So in itself, it is accretive, and when you add it to Publicis Media, you understand the power of our offer and our ability to continue to outperform the market as we do. On international, do you want to say a word about that, Loris? Yeah.

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah, sure. I mean, you might remember when we last spoke on the full year earnings call about our M&A strategy, that one of the three pillars was to invest in capabilities around first-party data to nourish our CoreAI, in particular, outside of the U.S. We started over a year ago with the acquisition of Retargetly in Latin America, which is exactly that. And so when we look at our M&A pipe, and maybe we'll come back to M&A a little bit later on, there is definitely opportunities that we're looking at, both in Europe and in Asia, to complement the Epsilon offering, and expand it internationally.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I mean, if I can add, and maybe we'll have a question later on that, but, it's a, it's a very important point, is that the beauty of Epsilon, in the U.S. and, and outside of the U.S., is that it will give us the opportunity to lead, in term of retail media and connected TV, which are the two biggest segments for the future. And it come back to the point I was making before about the indirect effect of Epsilon on Publicis Media. And what we are building in terms of capabilities outside of the U.S. now, to come back to your point, not only in building first-party data, but making sure that we lead in retail media and in connected TV, is gonna be a big differentiator for the future.

Adrien de Saint-Hilaire
Managing Director, Bank of America

Yeah, superb.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Dina Abu-Rahmeh at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Dina Abu-Rahmeh
TMT Equity Research Associate, Morgan Stanley

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe just one on our end. You reported strong growth in media, which is an outperformance versus the market. Could you maybe just help us understand the drivers for this? Is it mostly Epsilon, or are there other reasons you can highlight?

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I mean, let's be clear, the, the first reason why media is so strong is because I think we have the strongest team in the industry, led by Dave Penski. We, we don't talk enough about that. The talent bench we have built at Publicis Media, talent that we have grown, talent that we have bought. We talk a lot about technology and data, but it's still a people business. And so the first point is this, and we spend a lot of time with Dave to make sure that we bring the best people on board, and we continue to do so every day. The second reason is the combination of Epsilon plus Publicis Media.

Maybe I'll take a second on that. We are the only company in the world that has, at the same time, identity at scale, at an individual level, seeing 7,000 attributes, seeing 80% of what people buy, that we can connect with our media. Some have media scale, some have identity, but none has both. Our ability to connect both gives us an opportunity to lead into what will be marketing tomorrow. Because if one thing is certain, it is that marketing and investment will be based on first-party data, for two main reasons. I'm sorry to get a bit technical, but I think it's important for you guys to understand that.

The first main reason is that all of our clients in every category will have to connect their paid media, what they buy in the media, when they own, when they rent audiences, with their own media, which is their own digital ecosystem. And only identity can allow you to make the right arbitrage, if I take Loris, between an app, where I'm gonna make sure that I can see what is his menu board on the QSR, and a paid advertising that will push for a chicken offer, to say something. But that's critical, because this is modern marketing is that, is to find the right balance between paid and owned, based on identity. That's point number one. Point number two, only identity can allow you to link investment with business outcome.

To tell you, when I spend $1, this is a return I can expect, and I can guarantee, by the way. That's why, for those two reasons, in the future, every, in our opinion, every marketing investment, whether it be paid or owned, will be based on identity. We are the only one in the market that, again, possess the data, the media, and the technology to buy it. It's the reason I was saying that with other words, but this is one of the reasons why we see this acceleration in Q1, that is actually going above our expectation when it comes to personalization at scale: the rise of AI has only increased the willingness from our clients to accelerate on this model.... Sorry, it was a bit technical, huh?

Operator

The next question is from Christophe Cherblanc, Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Christophe Cherblanc
Managing Director, Bernstein

Yes, good morning. I had three questions. The first one is, sorry, coming back again on Epsilon. Arthur, you were clear that the deprecation of third-party cookie was not fully effective, but next year that will be the case. At the same time, clients are going to be more comfortable with AI, so it seems to me that 2025 should see a big step up. So would you be concerned if I were to tell you that double digit growth at Epsilon should be rock solid, as you say, a double digit level? That's the first question. The second one is on the media momentum. So super strong. Can you give a rough breakdown between the scope expansion and wins?

Should we expect the wins to impact to be linear for Q2, Q3, Q4? And the last one is on head count. Can you give us the head count at the end of Q1 and the plan for Q2? And you mentioned other platform company like McKinsey, Accenture, too, and Google, it seems they are struggling a bit with staff attrition being a bit too low. So is that something you're experiencing, and is there a level at which staff attrition being too low is an issue for you in terms of execution? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thanks a lot. I'll take, Epsilon and media. I'll leave you with the country, now. First of all, the third party cookie deprecation, will actually be effective next year, but in our client minds, it's a reality for a while, meaning they haven't waited, for this to really happen, to make the changes. And by the way, if they did not, which is the case of some, they're gonna be in big trouble because you can't do that overnight. So again, what you need to understand here is that there have been an anticipation that is already translating into our numbers. I always said the same, when we bought, Epsilon, we didn't know that the third party cookie thing was happening, and I wish I could say we were visionary. We just have been lucky on this one.

The fact that first party data became so structural for our clients has massively accelerated the growth of Epsilon, particularly when we have started to connect it with Publicis Media. So I won't say there is no more room for growth, and particularly with clients that we don't have, which comes to your second question, but it has already been anticipated. On AI, I think we have to be very careful. AI will take time for adoption first. As always, with these new technologies, there is a lot of excitement, then there is a bit of fatigue, then it's difficult to execute, and then you can see a slower ramping up with our clients.

Where you're right is what we see at the moment is that our ability to truly put AI at the core of everything we do, thanks to CoreAI, only with a few experimentation, makes us very confident for the future. The only thing I can tell you for Epsilon, I won't give you a number, but what I can tell you is that we are definitely counting on Epsilon to be strongly accretive for us in the quarter and in the year to come, and particularly when we link it to Publicis Media, that we believe will be accretive too. And to come back on that, the growth is a mix of both on Publicis Media. It is scope extension for the reason I just mentioned, and new wins of clients that are truly transforming.

Now, you have to be careful because as I always told you, we are choosing our battle. First of all, we don't buy market share. We have been number one in the business for the last five years, and as you have seen, we have actually increased our margin over the years. So we make sure we go for clients that are truly valuing what we do and are really keen to transform, and so we are focusing on those one. And so we wanna make sure that we go, go at the right pace with the right client, that we can transform, that becomes best practices for others and where we can implement our technology. So it's a mix of both. Loris?

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

On headcount, sorry, I'll start by stating the obvious, but I mean, given the momentum we have, we have to continue investing in our talents. If you look at Q1, we are slightly above the level of recruitment that we had in Q4 2023, simply because we account for a ramp up of a few sizable wins and our investment behind the AI project. At the same time, the net recruits increase in the last twelve months is below organic growth in Q1. Just to give you a clear number, at the end of Q1, we have 105,000 employees.

For the pace in 2024, it's too early to tell, but as always, we will apply a strict control on net recruits, while obviously making sure that we deliver on our committed scope of works to client. On the attrition side, you're right, it's normalized, and it's currently at 18%, which we think is a good level.

Christophe Cherblanc
Managing Director, Bernstein

Okay, thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much. I think that is the last question, right? Okay, we'll take the last question then.

Loris Nold
CFO, Publicis Groupe

The last question is from Tom Singlehurst, Citi. Please go ahead.

Tom Singlehurst
Managing Director, Citi

Yes, thank you. Good morning, Tom here from Citi. You'll be relieved to know just one question. In the first quarter this year, I mean, in organic growth terms, if we do that 2019 comparison, it's notable not only for the level of outperformance versus your sort of holding company peers, but it looks like you're gonna overhaul Capgemini, so some of the IT services peers. And I suppose the question is, on the market share gain side, do you think you're actively taking share from those larger established sort of IT services companies as well as the holding company groups, or, you know, is it you're just shifting from, you know, the one legacy sort of hinterland into the IT services peer group?

Are you outperforming both categories, or is it representative of shift from one to the other? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Wow! This is a great question, but not easy to answer. So, and you're gonna understand why. First of all, the direct answer is just look at our goals compared to our peers. We are definitely gaining a couple of point of market share when you look at the IT services, because we are doing slightly better than the other. But I would say it's roughly the same trend. And by the way, we are not counting growth in the same way, which makes things very complex. So, and by the way, only gaining slightly a couple of market share when you look at their multiple versus ours, I feel good about it, okay? So that's point number one. Then, where we definitely win market share is against our peer, and this is what we look.

We look at our three peers, we look at their goals, we look at the consensus, and we see how much we're growing. And by the way, it's pretty interesting to look at the net revenue evolution from the top three over the last five years. You see that, the kind of change that has happened. Now, this is where the question is difficult, and I'm gonna try to be clear. We are gaining market share from our peers, but from services that they are not delivering. You see what I mean? It's not apples to apples. When we win on those guys, it's not with what they are currently doing, it's with new things, which might explain also a bit of the tech sector. It's again, it's about first-party data, that no one owns at scale as we do.

It's about making sure that we're connected through media, that no one else does because they don't have the Power of One. It's about making sure that we can build that through Sapient in a unique way. And so, what I think we are doing at the moment is, yes, taking market share from our competitors, but with product and services that we are the only one to offer. Does that answer your point? Because this is a very important question.

Tom Singlehurst
Managing Director, Citi

Yeah, that's great. I suppose, I suppose, I think in the past you've said, you know, well, it's a point about being a sort of good house in a bad neighborhood. I suppose the point is you're shifting neighborhood, is the right way of thinking about it.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

First of all, I never said that. I read that-

Tom Singlehurst
Managing Director, Citi

No, no, no.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I never said that.

Tom Singlehurst
Managing Director, Citi

That's, that's the model. That's the model.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Second, honestly, and maybe I'll close with this. This is not what we fight for today. We had, as you know, and you have been following us for a while now, we had a couple of very tough year to put our transformation in place. It started with what, I guess, the boldest and the most visionary move that this industry ever did, which is Sapient, under Maurice Lévy leadership. It continued with the Power of One that Maurice initiated, it then follow with Epsilon, that we did more recently. And what we are doing today is really implementing a model that we believe will be unique, because it is at the crossroad of communication and technology, roughly.

And it is with the rise of AI, something that is becoming even more important for our clients. I mean, again, I, as I said, maybe Maurice was visionary and then I got lucky. But the truth is, everyone talks about AI, but AI is nothing without the data. AI is nothing without a single structure. AI is nothing if you don't have an engineer culture. And we have all three. We have Epsilon, we have the Power of One, we have Sapient. And so we are not looking that much at other, this is why it was a tough question, because I never thought about that. We are more looking at, do we continue to sustainably grow, on the best margin of the industry, finding the right balance between giving back to our shareholder and investing in our growth?

The truth is, Q1 for us is just another example of our ability to sustain this performance, and actually go a bit ahead of expectation in a couple of areas that were good news. But the most important thing, obviously, you will takeaway from this call, and that comes back to your point, is because we have a unique way to do personalization at scale, because we know how to connect data, creative, and media, which make us win new business more than others, and because we have this platform organization. Despite all the difficulties that are existing, emerging, and will continue to emerge in terms of macroeconomic context, we feel good about a guidance that is roughly the double of our own industry.

But what we look there, and the reason why we like to win market share, is because it is a demonstration of the unicity and the competitiveness of our model at the service of our clients. The only thing you should take about those 400 basis points of gap with our competition at this stage, is that it means that clients believe that our offer is superior. And this is why we fight for them. We don't fight for looking at how can we do better than this as well. We want to bring what our clients need at a moment where they dramatically need to transform. And this ability, we have to be leading in data, leading in media, being very strong in creative and having Sapient, makes a huge difference.

So again, it's really about staying very close to our clients, because some of them will be challenged. It's really focusing on the execution. And we didn't talk about M&A, but it's a very important point. We are focusing on bolt-ons, making sure that we put things in the right order. And I think it's very comforting for our shareholders to see that we spent EUR 1 billion on bolt-ons, that is growing 40%. And we are making sure, again, that we put our people at the center of that. And the excitement they have shown through the CoreAI was a very positive point. Well, I think we're gonna stop here. I see Jean-Michel would be happy to take all of your questions offline. We thank you very much for the call. Loris, it was your first one. Thank you for joining.

We're very happy to have you here.

Tom Singlehurst
Managing Director, Citi

With pleasure.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you. Have a good day. Merci.

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