Publicis Groupe S.A. (EPA:PUB)
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Earnings Call: H2 2022

Feb 2, 2023

Operator

Welcome thank you for joining the Publicis Groupe full year 2022 results presentation and webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by pressing star one at any time. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arthur Sadoun, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Judith. [Foreign language], and welcome to Publicis 2022 full year results. I am Arthur Sadoun, I'm here in Paris with our CFO, Michel-Alain Proch. Alessandra Girolami is also here and will be available to take all of your question offline after this session. I will start this call by sharing the main highlights of our performance. Michel-Alain will take you through the detail of our numbers. I will conclude with our outlook for 2023. After that, as usual, we will take all of your questions together. First, please take the time to read the disclaimer as it is an important legal matter. 2022 was another record year for the Groupe in what is still a challenging global environment. Thanks to our revenue mix, our go-to-market, and our platform organization, we actually outperformed the market on every KPI.

Reported net revenue was up +20%, including acquisition and FX impact. For the second year in a row, we delivered double-digit organic growth at +10.1%. Our operating margin rates reached 18%, which is 50 basis points above 2021 while maintaining record high bonuses. Headline EPS came at EUR 6.35, 26% above 2021. Lastly, free cash flow was at EUR 1.7 billion, EUR 300 million higher than 2021. Let's turn to the highlights of our performance. When it comes to organic growth, we posted a strong Q4 at +9.4%. This performance, ahead of expectations, allow us to deliver double-digit organic growth in 2022.

Once again in Q4, actually throughout 2022, we continued to capture the shift in client spend toward first-party data management, digital media, commerce, and business transformation. This is clearly demonstrated in the very solid numbers of Epsilon and Publicis Sapient. They delivered +13% and +18% organic growth, respectively, in the quarter, and full year growth at virtually the same levels. Together, they represent 1/3 of our revenue and almost 1/2 of our growth this year. Our data and technology capabilities also had an impact on the rest of our business. This is particularly the case in media, which achieved double-digit organic growth both in Q4 and for the full year. It is also important to note that our creative business gained traction, delivering mid-single digit organic growth with another good performance from production.

The overall momentum is actually visible in the very solid numbers of our key geographies. The U.S., which represents 60% of our net revenue, continued to perform very well at +10.1% organic growth in the quarter with Epsilon and Publicis Sapient accretive once again. For the full year, this led to 10% organic growth in the country, equaling the strong performance of 2021. Europe accelerated in the quarter to +13.2% organic. This included an outstanding performance in the U.K. at +38%, led by Publicis Sapient and mid-single digit growth in France and Germany. Europe finished at +12.3% organic growth for the full year.

Asia grew +2.9% organically in Q4, with a notable acceleration in China to +8.1% despite lockdowns and finishing at +6.5% for the full year. Turning to our second highlight, we posted strong financial KPIs thanks to our platform organization. Operating margin came at 18%, in line with our upgraded guidance, up 50 basis points compared to 2021. This performance included an historically high margin in the first half, as well as continued efficiencies from our shared global delivery platform through the year in the context of rising inflation. Very importantly, this margin was achieved while paying for the second year in a row, a record high bonus pool to our teams and an additional one-week salary in November to 45,000 of our people with no variable remuneration.

Combining our strong growth in net revenue and our 18% margin rate, our free cash flow came at EUR 1.7 billion. In line with our capital allocation, we invested over EUR 500 million in bolt-on acquisition to complement our capabilities in data, commerce, and digital business transformation with Retargetly, Yieldify, Profitero, and Tremend, just to name a few. We did this while continuing to deleverage and reach an average net debt of EUR 685 million for the year. Finally, our Headline EPS grew to EUR 6.35, 26% above 2021, also a record high level. This put us in a position to propose to our shareholders a EUR 2.90 dividend per share, fully paid in cash. This is 21% higher than 2021 and represents a payout of 45.7%.

Third highlight, our performance on a three-year basis. As you know, we believe that comparing ourselves against pre-pandemic levels is the best way to truly measure our performance. Since 2019, we grew organically by 13%, notably driven by the very impressive performance of our U.S. operations at +18%. Epsilon and Publicis Sapient were strongly accretive over this period with +21% and +25% organic growth respectively. It is also important to note that compared to 2019, H2 accelerated to +15% after H1 at +11%. Fourth highlights, our continuing new business momentum. After a record 2021, we once again capture a disproportionate share of new business win in 2022, which is a concrete result of our go-to-market. This put us at the top of the ranking for the fourth time in five years.

Thanks to the competitiveness of our integrated offer, we were able to secure the vast majority of our defensive reviews, extend our relationship with major existing clients, and win some of the largest offensive pitches this year. This included global media for AB InBev and Mondelēz, Stellantis global CRM, McDonald's in the U.S., PepsiCo in Asia, LVMH in EMEA, and the global creative business of Standard Chartered Bank and Siemens, just to name a few. Last but not least, we also continue to be an industry leader in ESG. Our efforts in sustainable business practices around DE&I, responsible marketing, and the fight against climate change mean we were ranked number one in the industry by far by most leading rating agencies. We have also recently been named for the first time in two Dow Jones Sustainability Index for Europe and the world.

I will now leave the floor to Michel-Alain, who will provide you further detail on our full year number. I will then come back to give you the outlook for 2023.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Arthur. Good morning to all of you. Glad to be with you today. I will begin on slide 14 with the evolution of our net revenue for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. In Q4, the Groupe posted net revenue of EUR 3,462 million. Q4 organic growth came at 9.4% versus 2021, ahead of expectation and 15% versus 2019. Reported growth in Q4 was at 18%. This included a EUR 15 million positive impact from acquisition and disposal and a positive impact from foreign exchange rate at EUR 215 million, mainly due to the USD to euro exchange rate. Full year net revenue was EUR 12,572 million, which is an organic growth of 10.1%.

A performance similar to the one of 2021 with a steady performance quarter after quarter. Compared to 2019, net revenue grew by 13% organically on the year. After taking into account a positive foreign exchange impact of EUR 864 million on the year, mostly due to the USD to EUR rate evolution, reported growth was at 19.9% in 2022. Let's move on to slide 15 that details our Q4 organic growth by geography compared to prior year and to 2019. North America posted another very strong quarter. This was visible in the region performance on a one-year basis and on a three-year basis at respectively 10% and 20% organic growth. Europe posted 13.2% organic growth versus 2021, broadly in line with the three-year stack.

Asia Pac grew at 2.9% organic growth versus 2021, and the same versus 2019. Middle East and Africa recorded 2.4% organic growth and 4% compared to pre-pandemic period. Finally, Latin America posted a -4% organic decline versus 2021, but was up 5% versus 2019. I will detail the performance of each region in the following slide. Let's begin with more detail on North America on slide 16. Our organic growth in the region was double digits this quarter after 9% in the same quarter last year. In the U.S., the group's largest country, all activities continue to perform very well at 10.1%. Media posted double-digit growth fueled by strong underlying trends and new business won in the last 18 months, notably in the TMT, healthcare, and food and beverage sectors.

Creative activities posted a solid mid-single digit growth fueled by production that materialized mostly in automotive and healthcare sectors. Publicis Sapient reached 15.4% organically on top of 22% last year as we were able to capture the very dynamic demand in digital business transformation, particularly in the retail and financial services sector. Epsilon grew 13.5% organically, with a particularly strong performance in digital media and in CitrusAd, fueled by the success of our data-driven marketing and Retail Media solutions. The automotive and data divisions at Epsilon were positive again, while tech was broadly stable on a high comparable basis.

It is worth noting that in Q4 in the U.S., both Publicis Sapient and Epsilon grew strongly compared to pre-COVID levels at 42% and 26% respectively compared to 2019, highlighting the relevance of our offerings to address the structural shift towards those capabilities. Let's turn now to the performance in Europe on slide 17. As I mentioned earlier, Europe recorded double-digit growth this quarter after +9% in Q4 last year. Excluding outdoor media and the Drugstore, our activities in the region grew by 17.7%. The U.K., which represents 9% of our net revenue, significantly contributed to the growth in the region by accelerating to 38% organic. This performance included a particularly strong quarter for Publicis Sapient, thanks to the ramp-up of large contracts in financial services and in retail.

Also notable was a double-digit growth both in creative and in media, largely driven by global clients. France, which represents 6% of our net revenue, posted a 5.3% growth excluding outdoor media activities in the Drugstore, thanks mostly to a double-digit performance in media, notably in the automotive sector. Germany, which represents 3% of our net revenue, posted a 7% organic growth with a very solid media that more than offset a softer creative. Publicis Sapient in the country accelerated with a double-digit organic growth in the quarter, driven by new business wins. Lastly, our operation in Central Eastern Europe recorded 7.5% on an organic basis. Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Turkey all posted double-digit growth. This performance was achieved despite almost no activity in Ukraine.

On slide 18, let me give you some details on our performance in the rest of the world. In APAC, representing 9% of Groupe net revenue in Q4, we delivered 2.9% organic growth. This was led by a remarkable performance in China at 8.1%, especially considering tough comps and continued lockdown during most of the quarter. China benefited from new business wins, notably in the food and beverage sector, as well as increased activity from global and local clients. In the rest of the region, the performance by country was more contrasted. Japan and Singapore recorded double-digit growth, while India and Thailand were down this quarter, mostly reflecting a very high comparable base at Publicis Sapient. Australia and New Zealand contributed positively to growth in the region.

In Middle East and Africa, we posted a 2.4% organic growth, supported by continued strength in media, while Publicis Sapient remained broadly stable due to a strong comparable base. Latin America, representing 3% of the Groupe , decreased by -4% organically this quarter, mostly driven by a negative performance in Brazil. The region faced a particularly high comparison basis of 23% last year and overall grew by 5% when compared to pre-pandemic level. Let's now turn to slide 19, which summarizes organic growth by region for the full year. North America posted a consistently strong performance throughout the year, leading to 9.9% growth versus 2021, and 18% versus 2019.

In Europe, our activities were up 12.3% for the full year, with a particularly strong contribution of the U.K. in the second half of the year. Asia Pacific grew 6.5% organically over the year, mainly driven by China, and reached double-digit growth over three years. Middle East Africa saw its net revenue grow by 7.5% organically. Finally, Latin America was up 10.4% in 2022, also double digits on a three-year basis. On slide 20, you can see the Groupe performance by client industry for the full year. This is based on an analysis of our main clients representing 92% of our net revenue. It also excludes MédiaTransports and the Drugstore. In 2022, all of our client industry were positive for the second year in a row.

Half of them recorded double-digit growth, and half of them recorded mid to high single-digit growth. Retail posted the strongest growth over the year at 24%, gaining strength quarter after quarter. Automotive was up 7% in 2022, growing almost twice as fast in H2 than in H1. The financial sector grew 12% in 2022, as did food and beverage. Healthcare recorded 11% growth for the full year with a strong end to the year. Finally, TMT and non-food, while decelerating in Q4, still posted respectively 8% and 5% growth for the year. Moving now to page 21, our consolidated income statement. Our net revenue in 2022 was EUR 12,572 million, and our EBITDA was EUR 2,801 million, up respectively 20% and 21% on a reported basis.

Operating margin was EUR 2,266 million, which is a margin rate of 18%, up by 50 basis points year-on-year. This actually represents a record high for the Groupe , driven by an exceptionally strong first half. I will provide more details on this in the next two slides. Headline net income was EUR 1,611 million, an increase of 27% versus 2021. Headline net financial expenses came at EUR 126 million, while income taxes increased to EUR 536 million, mostly reflecting higher profit before tax. Amortization of intangibles was up EUR 24 million, reaching EUR 215 million in 2022. Impairment on real estate restructuring charges further decreased to EUR 80 million, reflecting the completion of the third all-in-one rationalization wave and an impairment in Brazil for circa EUR 20 million net of tax.

Main capital gain and losses included EUR 87 million loss related to the exit of our Russian operation accounted for in H1. Taking all this into account, the Groupe net income was at EUR 1,222 million in 2022, up 19% versus 2021. Let's now turn to slide 22, which details our operating margin performance. Our operating margin rate improved by 50 basis points overall, or 20 basis points at constant perimeter and FX. This evolution includes two main items in line with our H1 performance. First, an increase in personnel costs that amounts to 210 basis points as a percentage of net revenue, or 230 basis points, including restructuring, reaching in total 65.3% of net revenue in line with the cost modeling we shared with you in July.

This was more than offset by a decrease in other operating expenses, including depreciation for a positive 250 basis points, reaching 16.7% of net revenue, here again, in line with our expectation. I will now detail the evolution of these different items in the next slide, which is a bridge from 17.5% reported operating margin rate in 2021 to 18% that we are reporting for the full year of 2022. Going from the left to the right, let's begin with the 17.5% that we reported in 2021. First, FX and Perimeter had a positive impact of 30 basis points on the operating margin rate, mostly due to the USD to euro rate. Taking this into account, 2021 comparable margin stood at 17.8%.

Starting from this base, personnel costs represent an increase of 210 basis points, as I just mentioned. In those 210 basis points, fixed personnel costs represent an increase of 200 basis points, while freelance costs decreased by 10 basis points, in line with our commitment to reduce the use of freelancer in the second half, mainly at Publicis Sapient. As Arthur mentioned, we kept bonuses at a record high level, close to EUR 500 million, re-rewarding our talent for their outstanding performance. This included an exceptional one-week salary paid in November to our staff with no variable remuneration. Overall, the increase in variable remuneration meant an additional investment of 20 basis points on the operating margin. Let me provide a bit more detail on the fixed personnel cost evolution.

We added 9,700 net recruits, mostly in H1, to complete the resource catch-up of 2021 and support our strong growth in 2022. As I told you we would do during our last call, we have fully stabilized our headcount in Q4 versus Q3. Salary inflation was in line with our initial assumption, and mostly in the U.S., the U.K., and India, as anticipated. Thanks to our platform organization, we've been able to absorb a large part of these two effects by further expanding the footprint of our global delivery center and shared service centers. On top of this, we have also continued to delayer our structure. This led to a rise in our restructuring cost of 20 basis points from what was an historical low in 2021.

All this action allowed us to maintain in 2022 the average cost per employee at the level of 2021. Let's turn to the operating leverage of the Groupe Other operating expenses, including depreciation, contributed to an improvement of 250 basis points. First, we posted an improvement of 160 basis points of other operating expenses, reflecting the strong cost monitoring of the Groupe while growing the top line by over 10% on a comparable basis. Second, depreciation improved by 90 basis points, mostly driven by the continued benefit from our action to reduce our real estate footprint over the last few years.

As we described in H1, other operating expenses and depreciation were adjusted by - 75 basis points and + 75 basis points respectively, with no impact on the total operating leverage of 250 basis points in full year. This reflected the renewal of two French outdoor media contracts for five and 10 years in December 2021. This led to accounting them as right of use and lease liability, leading to depreciation in 2022, rather than as in other operating expenses in 2021, all this in accordance with IFRS 16. As a result of all these different items, our operating margin rate in 2022 amounted to 18%, an increase of 20 bps compared to the previous year on a comparable basis. Let's move now to our headline net financial expenses on slide 24, which are down by EUR 34 million.

Beginning with the interest on net financial debt, which has improved by EUR 58 million, reaching EUR 17 million in 2022. This was largely due to an increase in interest income, reflecting higher interest rates as well as larger cash balances in the U.S., while our gross debt is entirely at fixed rates. Interest on lease liabilities increased by EUR 17 million to reach EUR 87 million, reflecting the renewal of the two outdoor media contracts I just mentioned earlier. The other lines are non-significant. This result in a EUR 126 million Headline net financial expenses, a EUR 34 million improvement versus EUR 160 million last year. On slide 25, income tax. Reported income taxes to EUR 431 million, up EUR 124 million. The increase largely reflected the rise in profit before tax.

To calculate the headline income taxes of EUR 536 million, we are adding the non-cash element of our P&L, i.e., the tax effect on amortization of intangibles, on impairment and real estate consolidation, as well as other non-cash items. Effective tax rate was 24.8%, up 140 basis points compared to 2021. That was exceptionally low and is now in line with the Groupe previous year ETR. On slide 26, the Headline EPS fully diluted is growing by 26% year-on-year to EUR 6.35. This strong growth reflects not only the improvement in our operating margin, but also a significant reduction of net financial charges.

The average number of shares on a diluted basis was up only by 1% compared to 4% the prior year, as we removed the script option and paid our dividend fully in cash in July. Moving to slide 27, free cash flow. Our reported free cash flow before change in working capital was EUR 1.8 billion in 2022 compared to EUR 1.4 billion in 2021. The largest positive impact obviously comes from the increase in EBITDA by EUR 484 million, reflecting the strong activity over the year as well as from the decrease in interest paid that I described earlier. This is partly offset by the following items, an increase of EUR 39 million in our lease liabilities repayment linked to the two outdoor media contract in France I mentioned earlier.

A rise in CapEx to EUR 194 million at 1.5% of net revenue after a low point in 2021. Let me add that we expect CapEx to further increase in 2023, reaching around EUR 250 million, reflecting the continued investment of the Groupe in its platforms, particularly at Epsilon and Publicis Sapient. Finally, an increase in tax paid of EUR 68 million, largely reflecting the rise in the Groupe PBT. Let me explain you why we have deducted an extra EUR 110 million from 2022 reported free cash flow, as you can see on the slide. A new tax legislation in the U.S. called the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, in short TCJA, was confirmed by Congress late December 2022.

According to this new fiscal rule, which largely affects tech and IT companies, R&D expenses spent in the U.S. now need to be capitalized and amortized over five years instead of being fully deductible like in the past. I want to be clear that this has no impact on the ETR, only on cash tax payment from 2022. This additional cash tax payment will progressively ramp down to reach zero by 2026. With our data and tech R&D activities, this has led us to pay an additional EUR 110 million cash tax in January 2023 related to fiscal year 2022. Taking this into account, the free cash flow before change in working capital reached EUR 1.7 billion, up EUR 270 million compared to 2021.

Next slide, use of cash starting from reported free cash flow before change of working cap at EUR 1.8 billion. As you remember, I told you that working capital at the end of 2021 was normalized, and that our objective for 2022 was to have a variation roughly at zero. This has been effectively achieved. Acquisition, including earn-outs and net of disposal, amounted to EUR 558 million, in line with the capital allocation. This included first, for about EUR 400 million, the acquisition of Tremend for Publicis Sapient, Profitero in commerce, Yieldify and Retargetly for Epsilon. Second, around EUR 100 million of earn-outs on previous acquisition. Finally, we took, as you may remember, a EUR 49 million cash charge in H1 for our exit from Russia that I previously mentioned.

As planned, dividend was fully paid in cash on July 6th, resulting in a cash out of EUR 600 million. As a result of this variation, we further reduced the Groupe net debt by circa EUR 700 million. Moving to slide 29, net financial debt. With this improvement of about EUR 700 million that I just described, we closed the year with a net cash position of EUR 634 million at the end of 2022. The average net debt on the last 12 months is EUR 685 million, an improvement of about EUR 850 million compared to last year, and better than our latest guidance. Including leases, this represent a leverage of 1.2x EBITDA, an improvement versus the 1.6x in 2021.

Before leaving the floor to Arthur, a few words now on our 2022 dividend, our free cash flow forecast, and cash allocation for 2023. First, on slide 30, our dividend. We are pleased, together with the board, to propose a dividend per share of EUR 2.90 at our next AGM in May. This would represent a payout of 45.7% in line with the Groupe financial policy, an increase of 21% versus 2021 after an increase of 20% the previous year. Like last year, this dividend will be fully paid in cash. The cash allocation for 2023 on slide 31. Our outlook for 2023 is a free cash flow before change in working capital of circa EUR 1.6 billion.

This includes all the transitional TCJA R&D cash tax payment that we anticipated in 2023, which consists of EUR 110 million related to 2022 that we already paid in January, as I said earlier, and an estimated EUR 90 million related to 2023, which will be paid in tranches throughout the year. Let me add that these transitional cash tax payments will progressively decrease to reach zero by 2026. For 2023, this mean that excluding the EUR 110 million exceptional payment related to 2022, free cash flow is expected to be stable at EUR 1.7 billion compared to 2022. Going into the expected cash allocation now for 2023.

First, we are planning, as I told you, a dividend of EUR 2.90 per share, representing a cash out of EUR 740 million. Second, we are continuing to invest in data, tech, and commerce with the M&A envelope between EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million in 2023, which is broadly comparable to 2022. Third, we are planning a share repurchase of 3 million shares, representing circa EUR 200 million. To cover for long-term incentive in order to stabilize the total number of shares of the Groupe as we've committed to. Fourth, we will use the remainder of our free cash flow generation to pursue the deleveraging of the Groupe by around EUR 100 million in 2023. This concludes my financial presentation, and now I give the floor back to you, Arthur.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

[Foreign lanuage], Michel-Alain. As you saw, we outperformed the market on all KPIs in 2022. Looking at our performance over the last three years, we have emerged as a stronger Groupe . Thanks to the profound transformation we've been through, today, our business is firing on all cylinders. Our revenue mix, our go-to markets, and our platform organization set us apart from competition and also make us confident for the year to come. In 2023, despite a challenging environment, we anticipate delivering another very strong performance ahead of current expectations. Concretely, this means organic growth of 3%-5% with Q1 in this range. An operating margin between 17.5% and 18%, and a free cash flow at circa EUR 1.6 billion.

Free cash flow is actually stable at EUR 1.7 billion, excluding the exceptional U.S. and R&D tax that Michel-Alain has already covered. Let me give you more details on that guidance. First, our differentiated revenue mix increases our resilience to business cycles. Thanks to the acquisition and the integration of Epsilon and Publicis Sapient, one-third of our revenue is composed of real-time first-party data and best-in-class technologies. This is precisely what our clients need in a tough macroeconomic context to continue to drive growth while optimizing their spend. This starts with first-party data management. With Epsilon, we are in a unique position to provide our clients with true identity resolution to fuel their entire marketing activities with the most accurate real-time customer insights, and in a soon-to-be cookieless world.

What make us truly unique is our ability to combine our best interest data with our scaling media to build new digital media offering and optimize our client spend. We are actually leading in the two major revolutions in our industry, Connected TV and Retail Media. On Connected TV, we created PMX Lift to accompany our clients in the shift from linear TV. On Retail Media, CitrusAd has doubled in size since we acquired it in 2021. We have fully integrated its technology with Epsilon to create a new generation of Retail Media platform that provides clients with unparalleled customer knowledge directly linked to sell activities. Thanks to our recently announced JV with Carrefour, we will actually expand these capabilities beyond the U.S. and the U.K. into Europe and LATAM by 2024.

Last but not least, with Publicis Sapient, we have the technology and 20,000 engineers and developers to create the platform experiences that our clients need for direct customer relationships and true personalization at scale in their own ecosystems. The strength of our future-facing expertise has been acknowledged by Forrester in 2022, with our assets being ranked number one in first-party data, loyalty, Retail Media, and digital experience services. Consequently, there is no doubt that Epsilon and Publicis Sapient will be accretive to our growth in the year ahead. They will address the critical need of our client to transform despite the current global pressure. Second reason why we are confident in 2023 is our go-to market. It positions us as a key partner in our client transformation.

By seamlessly integrating data and technology into all of our operation, we have been able to top the new business ranking again for the fourth time in five years. Consequently, boost not only our media, but also our creative agencies. This was already visible in our performance in 2022. Our creative and media activities together contributed to half of our growth over this period. Last but not least, our unique platform organization will allow us to sustain very solid financials while improving even more our competitiveness. Our country model with a single P&L and unified management per geography help us maximize Re:Sources allocation locally and encourage cross-service utilization. Our global delivery centers and the access they give to our local team to scale talent pool makes our model unique. We have expanded this success since the acquisition of Publicis Sapient to support the entire Groupe .

For back office needs, we also have Re:Sources, our shared services backbone. Together, they represent 25% of our workforce. Our model is increasingly supported by our platform, Marcel. With 83,000 unique user a month, Marcel has become not only central for fostering collaboration, but also created significant development opportunities for our talent. All of this makes our organization a real platform that is supporting growth while creating efficiencies. Well, as you have seen, thanks to our unique model, we have outperformed the market in 2022, with double-digit organic growth for the second year in a row and very solid financials. As we enter 2023, we are confident that the same combination of revenue mix, go-to-market and platform organization will continue to deliver profitable growth despite macroeconomic challenges.

In 2023, we expect to sustain the momentum we have built since the beginning of the pandemic, delivering 3%-5% organic growth in line with our three-year CAGR, while maintaining an operating margin between 17.5% and 18%. This year, as we did in 2022, we will focus on delivering our commitments, accompanying our clients in what is still a challenging time, and continue to develop our product roadmap to lead the change in our industry. All of this will not be possible without the trust of our clients and the outstanding effort of our people. I would like to deeply thank them. Thank you all for listening. Now, with Michel-Alain, we are ready to take all of your questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Lina Ghayor with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Lina Ghayor
Research Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hello. [Foreign language], Arthur, Michel-Alain. I hope you can hear me well. Well, impressive set of numbers, so congratulations. I have two questions, please. The first one is on the general environment. You provided a Q1 and full year organic growth guidance between 3% and 5% suggesting momentum should continue on Q1. After that, what are your clients sort of budgeting for the year? Are there any contingency planning? Are they pushing for more performance-based? Any indication on your conversation with them will be great. The second question is on your organic growth guidance. Could you elaborate on the moving parts between business wins contribution, underlying revenue inflation, slash pricing and Publicis Sapient and Epsilon?

Lastly, on the margin guidance, it would be great to understand how you, how you thought of your guidance and what you have baked in, basically, in terms of wage inflation and progress on offshoring. Thank you very much.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

If I don't put the mic, it won't work. Thank you very much, Lina. I'm gonna take the environment and the growth guidance. I will leave you with the margin, if it's fine for you, Michel-Alain.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Sure.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I mean, first of all, when I'm gonna distinguish what we think is general to the industry and what is specific to Publicis in your question about the environment. When you look at the industry, if you take the glass half empty, as we said, you're gonna continue to see some budget cuts in the traditional marketing. Don't get me wrong. We don't see any big change of client behavior at the moment. We do see locally some marketing budget cuts, and it's one of the reason I'll come back to that on the 3%- 5%, okay? The other thing that we are seeing is, of course, the salary inflation, okay? That's the two thing in the market that gets a bit difficult.

When you look at the glass half full, and this is what you see in our result and the current dynamic overall, is that despite the fact that our clients are facing some challenges, inflation, supply shortage, war in Europe, tension in general, they understand that they have no other alternative than to continue to transform their marketing and their business model. Again, this is where we are making a difference, again, in Q4, and by the way, better than the expectations, is that despite, again, those micro challenges, client will continue to invest in their transformation.

You can see that in our offer because, again, getting back to what is specific, what we have seen with our clients in the last year and what we are anticipating for 2023 is they will continue to go to us, whatever happen, to make sure that they can shift from cookies to first-party data management, for sure. They will continue to make sure that the content they put on the platform is more dynamic and driven by AI and technology. They will continue to transform digitally their business. When you look at what we have built with Epsilon and Publicis Sapient at the heart of our media and creative operation, we have the right answer.

Again, the best way to testify of that is the way we are going to market and our new business track record again in 2022. When you take the guidance in term of goals. First of all, coming back to what has happened in 2021 and 2022, we did actually outperform our guidance significantly. I think there are three elements that explain that, and that, by the way, explains also Q4. The first is our revenue mix. With 1/3 of our revenue in data and technology, we thought that Epsilon and Sapient will do well, they did extremely well. The second thing is our new business performance and the tailwind we had from 2021 has of course resound in 2022. A better macroeconomic context than expected.

Overall, for those three reasons, we outperform in 2021 and 2022. When you look at 2023, it is important to understand that when you talk about organic growth, the lower end of our guidance at +3% is already a high target in the current environment. We believe it is a realistic one. We know that it is well above consensus, but we feel that it is realistic. The question you're gonna ask is: How can we deliver the 5%? We believe it will depend on two things. First, the level of potential budget cut in traditional marketing, the one I talked before. Again, we don't see any big change in buyer behavior, but we see some cuts here and there in some countries.

The second is a new business dynamic, but honestly, mostly with existing clients, because whatever we're gonna win in the next six months big will have an impact for next year more than for this year. You are talking between 3%-5%, about EUR 250 million additional growth, which is of course a gap to fill that we could fill with those two variables. It is clearly ambitious and very sizable given the current macroeconomic. We feel that 3% is realistic, 5% is ambitious, and we're gonna do everything we can to fill the gap. By the way, it is very important to note, because hopefully we've been clear through the last quarter about that, the way we measure our performance internally, I'm not even talking about what we say to the market, is on the three-year stack.

Because what we want to make sure is that we build sustainable growth that can outperform the market with the best margin. When you look at our CAGR over three years at 4%, we are exactly at the midpoint of this range.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

I take the question. On the margin, let me give you a bit more color about our guidance. I think first, the important thing, you know, to have in mind is that the midpoint of the 17.5%-18% guidance is about 50 basis points above the average of the last three years. As Arthur mentioned, we did all this while increasing the Groupe bonus pool from circa EUR 200 million in 2019 to close to EUR 500 million in 2023, stable with the 2022. If I look at the hydraulics for 2023, as I normally do. I begin with personnel costs, which I think was the heart of your question, Lena.

After major investment in the last two years in the Groupe talents to sustain double-digit organic growth, we expect personnel costs in 2023 to evolve broadly in line with the net revenue of 2023. Which means establishing it slightly above 65% that I was mentioning in my presentation, pretty much like in 2022. To achieve this, we will actuaglly absorb wae inflation through four major action: offshoring, extension of our shared service center, delayering, and obviously, as Arthur mentioned, the country model. That's for personnel costs. When it comes to other operating expenses, we expect to have higher depreciation derived from the increased investment in Groupe platform that I mentioned, as well as some more travel expenses as people increasingly return to face-to-face meeting with clients.

This means that other operating expenses, which is the second part of our cost structure, should grow about 30 basis points to circa 17% of net revenue. When you take these two points into consideration, you reach the midpoint of the guidance for 2023.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

You ask a question about inflation that is between revenue and margin.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I'm gonna take this one, and then I'll make a comment on the operating margin. I mean, when it comes to inflation, thanks to our platform model, and again, this is a big competitive advantage for those who follows us for a while, when Maurice Lévy put in place Re:Sources and our shared services, when we started to develop through Sapient, the global delivery model, and then when we implemented the country model and Marcel, I guess we made a big difference in our ability to fuel our growth while keeping a high level of margin that is paying off today. It is important that it is the same platform model that allow us to absorb most of the inflation through the efficiency of our operation. This is how we do.

To be clear, and we said it already, in 2022, the impact of inflation on our top line was very limited. When it comes to 2023, which was your question, we expect the impact of inflation on our revenue to be circa 1%, and it's gonna be largely driven by the contract renegotiation we have with Publicis Sapient. Again, we consider that it's our role to absorb inflation, this is why we are very happy to be able to maintain the same level of margin. It's our role to absorb because there is a part that we can pass to our client, it is limited in our industry.

I would like to make more of a comment for those that have been following us for years and with whom we had the debate between margin and growth when our organic growth was not where we wanted it to be. I mean, as Michel-Alain told you, H1 margin was exceptionally high because we have a huge amount of new business and there was some ramp up to make, okay? That's a very important point. We always said and we continue to say that as we are building a business based on capabilities that fit exactly for our clients' needs, where we believe there is some organic growth to extract in the future, we believe that the normalized operating margin is between 17.5% and 18%.

We believe, and this is an important point, that this is the right balance between what is today the highest margin of the industry that is also capable of absorbing inflation and the right level of investment in our talent to actually support the growth. That was a long answer, but hopefully we covered some of the questions that are coming.

Lina Ghayor
Research Analyst, BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Lisa Yang with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Good morning. Congratulations on the results. Also have a couple of questions, please. Firstly, on M&A, obviously you guided to another EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million, did EUR 500 million last year. Could you maybe just comment on what level of contribution to the top line you would expect in 2023 and then potentially in outer years? That'd be helpful. Secondly, you announced this EUR 200 million buyback to offset the impact of the LTI. Is that something that we should basically treat as recurring? Basically assume your share count going forward should remain flat, beyond 2023 as well. The third thing, again, is just to come back on the margin. Obviously 3%-5% growth is pretty strong.

I understand, you know, the comp base is difficult. Are there any other elements which we basically would prevent margin from growing in 2023? Maybe you can mention like, you know, maybe FX or anything else we are, you know, we might be missing here. On the margin as well, could you also comment on where you are in terms of the margin for Sapient and Epsilon? Obviously these are growing extremely strongly, so I'm just wondering at what point we'll see Sapient Epsilon margin also catching up with the rest of the Groupe or even becoming accretive to the Groupe margin. Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much. I'm gonna take the last question on Epsilon and Publicis Sapient margin, and then I will let Michel-Alain go onto the first three one. What is important to understand here is we have really shifted from a model with global brands where we were looking at P&L per activities to country P&L. The reason why we are not disclosing the margin per operation is because you can find yourself, let's say on a media pitch, where Epsilon will be a key contributor to a win for Vinay or Starcom, and where actually the margin impact will be shared between both entities.

Because we have moved to a country model, what matters to us is of course the margin at country level more than on a global operation. Again, true integration means that we have to keep the P&L cycles. As you know, this is something that we started to do with the Power of One that has been created by Maurice in eight years ago, seven, yeah, seven, eight years ago, I guess now. That we have accelerated in 2018 by putting the country model and makes a big difference, not only our ability to win, but also on our ability to manage costs and make sure that we make the best use of our resources. Michel-Alain, I'll let you take the.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah. Sure. Sure. Hi Lisa. We are beginning with acquisition, we can assess an impact of M&A between 1%-1.5% on top line. The second point related to LTI, maybe you remember, Lisa, that we did exactly the same thing in 2021, in which we bought for about EUR 140 million of shares. Here we have a larger program with EUR 200 million representing about 3 million shares. Our objective here, as I think we have shared with you several time with Arthur, is to stabilize the share count.

Yeah, indeed, going forward, the idea is to buy the share of our managers on the market. That's for the LTI. The third point, which is about margin. Maybe before addressing 2023, let me just have a word about 2022 and effects. I think on 2022, well, first obviously we landed at the upper part of the bracket. This include, as you may remember, 40 basis points that we cashed out on the exceptional one week salary. We were able to do so because we experience, as Arthur told you, a very high H1, 2022 margin.

Maybe you remember that it was up 80 basis points versus H1, 2021. We saw strong revenue growth while we were still catching up in term of resources. It really is 80 basis points in H1, which represented 40 basis points on the year, which is allowed us to invest these 40 basis points in exceptional one-week salary. Another way to say it is that these two elements actually compensated each other in 2022. There is no one week salary buffer in a certain way for 2023.

Finally, on the effects, just have in mind that the dollar is representing 30 basis points of tailwind in 2022, while in the guidance 2023, I think it's important that we tell you that we have taken a dollar to euro rate of 1.08, huh, that's what's factored in the guidance, which is compared to 1.054 for the average of 2022. It mean that we are already factoring a headwind of about 3% coming from the dollar. Arthur?

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

If you don't mind, I would like just to come back on the contribution of the acquisition in order to give you a bit more color on how we deal with acquisition. It's still EUR 500 million next year. It was for this year, it was EUR 500 million last year. Hopefully the message you're gonna get from this call is that our transformation, all the efforts we have to make in term of organization, in term of investment, in term of repositioning, in term of changing the management is behind us. We have spent a huge amount of time to do it. It has been disturbing at one point, and now for the last three years, and again, this is why we look at the three years back, you can see the momentum.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Like, can you?

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

We have-

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Sorry.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

With one third of our revenue in data and technology, a fantastic asset. A fantastic asset because it's accretive to our growth, and a fantastic asset because it also boosts the rest of our business, as you can see in the business. The way we approach acquisition now is really looking for bolt-on acquisition that can bring us two things, new tech capabilities or new kind of talents. On the top of that, companies that can fit either with Publicis Sapient or with Epsilon, or sometimes smaller innovative company we have in the Groupe . Reinforcing and leveraging everything we have created and integrated so far. We are very, very picky on what we do, and it's not a coincidence if you have a Citrus that has already doubled size.

Because we took an asset that we plug into Epsilon, we came with the best offer today in the market in retail media, which is a booming segment, as you know. You can see the result not only in Citrus, but also in Epsilon, as Michel-Alain just mentioned.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. May I have a quick follow-up question?

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Of course.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Great. I'm just looking at your guidance of 3%-5% for the full year, and you're talking about 3%-5% for Q1. If I look at what that implies versus 2019, it's about 14, 15% growth for Q1, and 70%-80% for the full year. I'm just wondering, are you being a bit conservative with that 3%-5% for Q1, or basically why would the full year stack basically would accelerate what gives you confidence that the full year stack will accelerate throughout the rest of the year to achieve your full year targets?

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

No, I think, if I may, yeah. I think on the 3%-5%% for Q1, we, you know, with the macro uncertainties that remain, we think that this is as Arthur was saying for the entire year. I mean, the 3% is already high but realistic. For the 5%, we've got a couple of things to happen in order to reach this. We think basically we see it in the line of the full year organic range, mostly driven by the robust trend of our underlying business.

Another way to look at it, which I think is the most important in our view, is the fact that it's fully in line with our last three-year CAGR of 4%. I think that's the what is underlying our guidance for the year and for Q1.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

The way we manage our team, this is very, very important. We are here for the long run to build a business that outperform the market in term of goals and deliver the best financial KPIs. We look at the three-year stack. By the way, just a detail, but it's true that our Q1 guidance is already 300- 500 basis point better than consensus. I think when we're there, so we feel it is a good performance...

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

In a very uncertain context, but as I said, we feel that it's realistic.

Lisa Yang
Managing Director of Media and Internet Research, Goldman Sachs

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question is from Matti Littunen with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Matti Littunen
Senior Research Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you. The first question on the commerce business, clearly very strong performance from retail media there, and some bolt-on focus there as well. Now, commerce has lots of elements, so is retail media where you see your strength and focus going forward? Or, is it a more sort of a broad-based development where you're seeking to lead in other areas of commerce as well? The second one on restructuring costs, now it seems like you've reached a new milestone in terms of the Rationalization program. Can you just give us an update in terms of where you stand now after, you know, moving to the, you know, country model and what kind of level of course could we expect going forward, and what the next kind of steps to rationalize are? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you very much, Matti. I'll take the first question. I'll leave the second one for Michel-Alain. I mean, there is two dimension in retail in what we presented. There is retail when we talk about our retail clients, as you have seen, it is an industry vertical that is growing very fast. There is retail media when we play our media role and help our client win in this channel. When it comes to retail as a client first, it's very important to note the strengths we're having today with Publicis Sapient to help retail transform.

The reason why the number is so high is that it is definitely a category where we have totally shifted from being a communication partner to truly be at the heart of the transformation of our clients and helping them in every dimension. I guess you would agree with me that retail needs a big transformation, but the one that are doing it faster than the other are winning bigger. This is where we are. This is a very, very important thing for us because it's a big part of our business, and we are seeing huge momentum with Sapient. I mean, Nigel Vaz is spending a lot of time with CEOs of different retail company, just advising them and then we can follow up, put these things in place. The second thing is Retail Media.

Retail Media again is a new booming channel for our clients. We believe that we know by the way, that CPG companies will spend more on Retail Media than on linear TV by 2025. To come back to your question, where we have a huge advantage, which is true for Retail Media, but in general for commerce or for Connected TV or for many things, and that I think it's important for you guys to get, is that on one side we have with Epsilon leading capabilities in term of data management and delivering precision based on identities. On the other side, we have Publicis Media, that is a leader in media and definitely number one in the U.S.

Our ability to combine our data expertise with our scale in media allow us to build new product and services that are exactly what our client needs in term of investments to actually grow faster while spending less. The reason why again, we are insisting on Retail Media or in Connected TV, is that it's two booming area where our client needs data on one side to personalize and scale because they still need to reach a lot of people where we have a unique position on the market. Now, I'll stop one second on commerce because retail commerce, it's a lot of work and it's pretty complicated. We believe that we are now experiencing the third biggest revolution in the marketing industry. The first one was digital 20 years ago. The second one was social 10 years ago.

The next one, and the one that we're experiencing now is commerce. Just for a simple reason, which is every marketing experience that our client are investing in could turn into a commerce experience. Everything you see, you'll be able to buy it. Again, at the heart of this transformation, what our client will need is better understanding of customer, which is what we bring with Epsilon, and direct access to them, which is what we can build with Sapient. It's a big thing for us. It's not something that we're gonna resolve overnight, but it's definitely these things that are already impacting our business, allowing us to win more new business and grow Sapient and Epsilon, as you have seen. Michel?

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah, sure. On the Mat, on the second question you have about restructuring, there's two parts in it. I mean, there is the delayering we're doing on our organization related to people. And there is the real estate consolidation. I'm going to address both of it. Basically, on the restructuring part of people restructuring, as you've seen, in our margin in 2022, we spent about EUR 80 million, and we expect to have the same level roughly in 2023. That's for people restructuring. For the real estate consolidation, you're right, we have finalized in 2022 the third wave of all-in-one consolidation plan, which since the beginning, a total accumulated savings of EUR 200 million roughly.

We are working on a new plan, which will be integrating the future of work with the hybrid mode we all know. It's too early to announce any future savings yet. We're working on it on the first semester. We'll get back to you on that one.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Michel.

Matti Littunen
Senior Research Analyst, Bernstein

All.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you.

Matti Littunen
Senior Research Analyst, Bernstein

All very clear. Thank you both.

Operator

The next question is from Julien Roch with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julien Roch
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Barclays

[Foreign language], Arthur Michel-Alain. Three questions. Coming back on the full year 2023 guidance. I mean, you've already answered, and you said that, you know, it was in line with your three-year CAGR. Obviously, there are macro uncertainty this year. I assume some of your guidance is based on client budget. What happen if clients do cut their budget? How much of that 3%-5% is already b

ooked in, cannot be cut if the macro disappoint because it's digital transformation? How much conservatism you have in your guidance. Some, some color on what happen if the macro disappoints. That's my first question. The second question is very clear on margin guidance for 2023. What happen in further years, so in 2024, 2025 if you continue to do 4% organic top line, do the margin stay at 18% because it's best in class and you fully streamline? Or can we have some operational gearing? That's my second question. The third one is on cash. You now are comfortably net cash. You will add EUR 100 million to your cash pile in 2023 if you deliver on cashflow. When can we expect a bigger buyback? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I'm gonna take number one, and I will leave you two and three, and then make a comment on three after you. What happen if macro uncertainties, I mean, the macro start to get tougher, as you say, Julien? Thank you for your comment. Again, what we have tried to demonstrate today is that, we believe, we are strong. I mean, we have three very strong competitive advantage that make us confident. I won't say whatever the macro, but typically in a tough, in tough environment. The first, and I won't insist enough, is our revenue mix. Because I can tell you something, is that things can get tougher, client won't stop to invest in their data, in their technology, in their commerce, in making sure that they digitally transform their business.

They have no alternatives than to do it. Yeah. We believe it is a huge advantage because I think a third of our revenue is that we'll be accretive to our growth, and will also help us to boost the rest of our business, will make a difference. We have, as you have seen, very good new business tailwind. Let's be clear. Again, 2021 was an exceptional year that translated very strongly into 2022. 2022 was a good year. We had the transformation rate was as high, but the level of activities was lower, but still is gonna be a tailwind. When you take one plus the other, again, we feel that the lower end of our guidance, at 3% is definitely our target, and you're right in the current environment but is a realistic one.

We are very confident to deliver it, even if the macro start to disappoint, to be very clear. Getting into the 5% is another challenge. This is why we're giving you a big bucket, because we are talking about EUR 250 million. If I want to summarize, I would say half of this is eventual traditional marketing budget cuts, again, if things get worse. Also the same half of opportunity on clients if we're able to transform. This is why you have this bracket between 3% and 5%. Again, we feel that 3% is very realistic, anticipating many things, and the 5% is more ambitious, but of course this is a target we set to achieve.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah. Completing your two other point, Julien , about margin and cash. On margin, I think I'm going to repeat what I think I said in July, if I'm not mistaken, which is that the bracket 17.5%-18% is we believe the right one in order to sustain the level of growth we want to sustain and to sustain a profitable growth. You can have it as a good proxy for the years to come. The second thing I would like to add on that point is that can we, you know, can we do more on the margin? We certainly can. Is it the point? No, it's not the point.

The point is really about supporting our growth, which as Arthur is sometime mentioning it, where was missing in some previous years. I think we are very clear on the relationship between margin and growth. Arthur, do you wanna say one more thing about the margin, or are we moving to cash?

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I just wanna say that we are very proud of what we are doing when it come to variable compensation. With the one week salaries that we gave to 45,000 of our people, you need to understand that not only it has an impact on those people that had a plus for the recent season, but it was felt as a moment of pride for our team in general and their manager, and even for our clients that felt that we are doing the right thing for our talents. This is maybe the most important point, is, you know the scarcity of talent today. You know the difficulty you get to get the best, and you know that we are a people business.

We believe that the more we invest in our talent, the better growth we have. Again, we are very, very proud to be able to sustain such a level of margin in an inflationary context while rewarding our people in this way, and this is something that we're gonna continue to do, by the way. You just have to look at the kind of talent we are able to attract at the moment within Publicis to understand that the policy we're having with our manager talents and our people in general is truly making a difference.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah. I just follow up on the cash point. I'm not obviously going to repeat the capital allocation for 2023. It's quite clear. There are one or two thing that I would like to underline. The first one is that, based on EUR 1.6 billion of free cashflow, with, you know, a dividend of EUR 740 million, we are returning to the shareholder more than half of our free cashflow, to more 50-55%. The important thing is that it's an increase of EUR 130 million compared to 2021. We did, I mean, sounds nothing, but, you know, we did several thing on this. We took out subscribed dividend

We increase the dividend to a massive number of EUR 740 million in 2023. The second point, I'm not gonna comment about acquisition. I think, you know, Arthur has been super clear on the fact that we are directing them on bolt-on in order to boost our capabilities and our growth. On the share repurchase, I think you have a clear commitment from our side to have this repurchase in place in order to stabilize our share count.

Now, don't count on a big share buyback like others are doing, because this is clearly not our financial policy, and we believe that the capital allocation I just, you know, described quickly is in line with our Groupe strategy, and that it's creating more value than a purely financial share buyback.

Julien Roch
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Barclays

Okay. Very, very clear. If I could, do a really quick follow-up. As you talked about tailwind on that new business, could you maybe quantify that for 2023? Are we talking about 1%, 2%? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

It's actually too early. There are gonna be a tailwind for sure. We need to see how fast it ramps up. Again, it won't be at the level of what we have experienced last year because the level of activity was higher, but we expect that to be a tailwind. We will tell you more for sure later in the year as we did last year.

Julien Roch
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Barclays

Okay. Very, very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Omar Sheikh with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Omar Sheikh
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Morning, everyone. I've got three questions as well, please. First of all, you mentioned that Sapient and Epsilon are gonna be accretive to growth in 2023. Could you maybe just quantify whether that's, I don't know, mid-single digit, high single digit, or maybe low double digit in 2023? That's the first question. Arthur, you mentioned some budget reductions in traditional marketing. Could you maybe just highlight where you're seeing those, which territories and which segments is that kind of gonna be coming through in creative and media, or was that somewhere else? Finally, you know, as Julien just mentioned, the leverage that you have now doesn't appear to be, let's say, optimal.

Could you maybe just talk about just long term where you think optimal capital structure should be for the company? Arthur, are you not tempted by maybe something a bit more transformational on the M&A side, you know, if not this year, but then at some point, particularly given the strength that you're seeing for demand in things like digital transformation consulting? Thanks very much.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Hi, Omar. I guess you will agree that in terms of transformation, we have done a lot already. Our job now that we have fully integrated those two very big acquisitions and one that was extremely visionary with Sapient, and we see the result now thanks to what Maurice has put in place. Another one that was pretty bold at the time because it was a difficult time for us with Epsilon. What is coming now is bolt-on acquisitions, where we can leverage those two platforms that we have put in place. When it comes to Sapient and Epsilon, as you have seen, they have been performing very, very well this year. We know that they will be accretive next year.

I think it's important to put things back in perspective. In 2019, Publicis Sapient were negative. We changed the model, we changed the management. We ask Nigel Vaz to take care of it, and we have 18% growth this year and a three-year stack that is pretty impressive. We bought Epsilon. The market recognized at the time that the multiple we paid were good on the premise of a goal that could go from 0%-3%, okay? We have delivered this year 12% or 13%, I mean, depending if you take on the quarter or on the year, but way beyond that. Why? Because we have been able to integrate it properly with our activities.

I mean, we talk a lot about Epsilon and Sapient, but if you take both of those activities, and particularly Epsilon, a big part of their success is due to the work they have been doing to truly continue to transform and bring new expertise, but also how they have been working, particularly with Publicis Media. The ability of Dave Penski, for example, that is now a member of the Directoire+, to really bring, as I said, data with the scale of media. Again, what will be the growth of both of those entities? It's too early to say, or at least too early to make a clear plan.

I can tell you again that they will be accretive, and what we're gonna look is, of course, their own growth, but also the growth they will bring to other operation in other countries, which is what matter at the end for us.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah. Maybe, on the complementing, hi, Omar, it's Michel-Alain Proch on the cash balance. Maybe just to remind the numbers, and then I go to your question. Just reminding the number is the following. In terms of average net debt for 2022, as I mentioned, we have reached EUR 685 million. What we are planning in terms of average net debt for 2023 will be to be between EUR 200 million and EUR 300 million, reflecting the deleveraging I was just mentioning. I think what's important for us is that we have always been cautious on liquidity.

Actually, when you look at the structure of our balance sheet, today, I think we are even more right than ever. We have a debt which is at fixed interest rate, so we are not suffering from the increase in interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic. That's number one. Number two, when you will look into the detail of our P&L, and I hope I've been clear on this, the higher interest rate is actually benefiting us, particularly on the dollar. You know that we have large amount of dollars in cash, which is helping our financial charges and will help our EPS for 2023.

When you combine all this, cautious on liquidity, large amount of dollars which are actually benefiting us in term of interest rate, financial charges and EPS, I think the capital allocation is really making sense for 2023. You know, we don't provide a net debt to EBITDA long-term objective, but I want to be clear on what we provide, which is the capital allocation for 2023.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Michel.

Omar Sheikh
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

On the budget reductions, do you have any color of where you're seeing that?

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Budget reduction, I think, Arthur mentioned it. We saw some in Q4, in traditional marketing. Arthur, do you want to.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Yeah. No, no, sorry for that. I skipped this one. I mean, this is what I said. It's difficult to tell you where, because it's everywhere, but it's smaller. We are talking about, I don't know, a campaign in Mexico that has been cut because the client has decided to postpone it or just to change product line or decided to reduce his product portfolio. It could be a transformation project for Sapient in Asia, where there is a lack of CapEx. They decided to go over. We are talking about the sum of mostly traditional marketing things that doesn't add to global number that is material, but does impact here and there our different entities. Again, no major change in our client behavior, which is what we could have expected.

It is not happening. Of course, some cautiousness where necessary because everyone has to make sure it can find some savings, will it be to absorb the inflation. More importantly, on the other hand, client that understand that their transformation needs to happen despite the challenges they are encountering.

Omar Sheikh
Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Christophe Cherblanc with Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Yes. Good morning. I had two, actually. First one is on the edge of Publicis vis-à-vis competition. You, we have Sapient and Epsilon at one third of revenues. I'm sure your peers are also aware of the commerce media opportunity, the demand for first party data analytics from their clients. I'm sure you're monitoring competition. What would you say the one third of revenues is for your big peers? Is it 15%, 20%? Any number would be very useful. The second one is on, sorry to bring up the subject, we have seen a lot of news flow on ChatGPT AI. Actually, you did mention AI in your comments. Do you see demand from your clients for Publicis to use those tools?

Do you see room to use them in production, or do you think it's just a buzz? Thank you.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

No. We don't see our clients asking us to use this tool in particular. What we do experience, which is very important for us, is how we can put AI at the service of our platform and services. I think we have to be very, very careful is that AI can be at the service of modern marketing, but AI can't be modern marketing in itself. It would make absolutely no sense. You still need the strategic and creative mind to make things happen. Once I've said that, I'm gonna take it to give you a very precise example that gets you into your other question, which is our competitors, okay? I'm not gonna talk about competition.

You just have to look at who has made acquisition, who has divested assets in the last five years to understand who has truly invested in data and technology. Having said that, I'll take the example of the data we're having in Epsilon. One of... There is two difference in the data we have in Epsilon. First, they are based on transaction, so we know what people buy and you are what you buy. Second, they are real-time. They are optimized real-time at the nanosecond, thanks to AI. This is a great example of how AI can help you know your customer better, but then you still need strategies to make something out of that. Just to go faster because time is flying, and we still have a couple of questions.

When I come back to your first question, it's very simple. One third of our revenue in data and technology, which roughly represent EUR 4 billion, no one has something even close to this. This is what is making a big difference for us, not only in our revenue mix, but also in our go-to-market, as you can see in new business.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

If I can just add one sentence. There's actually a good comparison is one of your colleagues, Christophe Adrien, has provided a comparison of the different data sets in between the different holding companies in the last notes, which I think is interesting.

Christophe Cherblanc
Senior Analyst, Société Générale

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Jérôme Bodin with Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.

Jérôme Bodin
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, Oddo BHF

Yes, good morning. First question on pricing. I just want to make sure I got the right number. You said almost nothing in 2022 and +1% in 2023. My question is do you think there is room for further increase in the midterm because it doesn't look so much regarding the general inflation? Second question in terms of head count, you mentioned stabilization in Q4. How should we expect Q1 and full year on that regarding your growth guidance? Thank you.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Okay. I begin, thank you, Jérôme. I will begin by the second one, if you allow me. On head count, you're right. Just to remind you a bit, you know, the big picture here. Looking at the last 24 months, we increased in 2021 our head count by 9,300 people, net hires. In 2022, we increased by 9,700 people. During the year 2022, we really caught up on 2021 because in the second quarter of 2021, suddenly we had the acceleration in the growth and we had difficulties to keep up in term of resources.

That the reason why at the call in October, we told you our objective in Q4 is stabilizing our head count because we're there. We did, we did it, huh. I think it was almost zero actually the variation of head count for the Q4. Now looking at Q1, as Arthur is saying, we want to have a slight increase of our head count for Q1, due obviously to this macroeconomic environment we know.

Just to be clear, in 2023, at the difference of some, you know, tech companies, we don't plan any layoff, just it's just obvious, and we are going to carry on hiring to support our growth of 3%-5%, but obviously not in the amount that we did in the last two years. On the price thing, I want to come back on this. Yeah, in 2022, indeed, we believe that the impact of prices on our revenue is really limited. Where there is one, it's in Sapient, because of the demand in this sector, which is really, you know, which was extremely hot and carry on to be extremely hot.

In the rest of our operation, we did not increase prices during 2022, and it was really at the end of 2022. On 2023, Arthur mentioned 1% of impact in our, in our top line. It's obviously always complicated to modelize. I want to be really humble on this. That I think is our best estimate as of now. Obviously, we'll see if we get back to you while the, the year is, is progressing.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Just two quick comments, and I know we got to go fast. On that count, don't underestimate what we have developed with Marcel over the last six years in what is today an hybrid world. We have an ability to manage our capacity and our talent that is unique in the market and to make sure that we allocate resources properly. There's been a huge advantage during the crisis because we could allocate people and actually do well on our margin while not firing too many people. It's a huge advantage in term of growth, and particularly at a time where we know we have to be cautious and we have to give the priority for the next big job to our own people, okay? Second, on inflation, sorry, I want to make an account comment.

Account in the sense account, not accounting, but a sales guy.

Michel-Alain Proch
CFO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you. Yeah.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

A sales guy. The truth is we have been growing with our clients in 2022, and hopefully we will continue to grow in 2023, for sure. The two real reason why we are growing is first the quality of our people and our ability to upgrade the talent and get better remunerated for that. This is a discussion we're having on a daily basis because they want the best talent and the scope and our ability to win more scope within the client. What we can get through inflation is of course very minimal and not really material compared to the two first.

Operator

The next question is from Adrien de Saint Hilaire with Bank of America. Please go ahead. First of all, Arthur, I hope you've made a speedy recovery. And then I've got two quick questions, please. So you're guiding at about 3%-5% growth in what is a pretty soft year for the economy with real GDP growth being fairly limited. Does that mean that you think your like-for-like growth could actually turn out to be better in the future if we assume that GDP growth accelerates, for example, in 2024? And then, the second question is hopefully a fairly simple one. Are you seeing any benefits from reopening from China, either on your local activities in China or from your clients that are exposed to China?

Adrien , thank you very much, and thank you for the personal wish. I'm actually in great shape, so thanks a lot for that. It's too early to tell you if we can deliver more growth in the future. I think it will depend on how the world goes and how things normalize at the world level before us. What is certain, and hopefully you have seen that on our three-year stack, because again, this is what matters, we have the revenue mix, we have the go-to-market, and we have the platform organization to deliver the best financial KPIs while growing above market. Thank all of those three reason, and we feel confident that we're gonna continue to do that clearly.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

I'm very proud about what our teams have done in China under the management of Jane Lin-Baden. Very proud because they have by far the most modern offer in this country. Again, it is not a big country for us when you look at our revenue, but it is a big country for our big clients, okay? It is a big country in terms of local opportunities. We definitely have there a bunch of talent that has been created at the time by Loris Nold, but now is in charge of Europe and is incredibly well led there, where we have made the demonstration that thanks to this offer, not only we can lead the new business table, and you have seen what we've been winning, but also continue to deliver very strong growth in a very challenging environment.

I think this is very encouraging. As it is not too early in China, if we have our people listening, a big thank you to them, because it has been a very tough years with lockdowns, as you know, and they've been just outstanding.

Adrien de Saint-Hilaire
VP and Research Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The last question is from Tom Singlehurst with Citi. Please go ahead.

Tom Singlehurst
Head of European Media Equity Research and Global Head of Education Research, Citi

Yes, thanks very much for taking the call. Tom here from Citi, congratulations on the results. one or one and a half questions. The first one I wanted to ask about was the special incentive payment to staff. We know that obviously went down well because some of your competitors made a big fuss about it. Clearly a good initiative. I'm interested in whether you can share any sort of either anecdotal or even quantitative metrics on what impact that has had on staff retention. Feels like an important development. That was the first question. The other one I had was on the U.K. That 38% organic is obviously extraordinary. It's thrown out by Sapient and Epsilon, obviously.

I'm just wondering whether regional or even global business is being channeled through that U.K. number, so it's not sort of truly representative. Thank you very much.

Arthur Sadoun
Chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe

Thank you, Tom. I'll start by the U.K. First of all, yes, U.K. on its own is doing very well on every business and did better than expected. A great job that has been there. You are right to say that U.K. is also a global platform. We have seen some growth coming from our global clients and an outstanding performance of Sapient. I mean, I told you, two years ago, I guess, when the performance of Sapient in the U.K. was not that good, I told you, we are not worried. It is not client that we have been losing, it's client that have massively and drastically reduced their spend and their CapEx, and it will come back. Not only it came back very strongly, but they have been winning incredibly there. They have a fantastic team.

We are seeing at the moment a great dynamic that make us very confident for the future. I'm gonna end up with your question on the staff impact on the bonus we gave. First of all, if we are thinking about the same person, it is definitely not a competitor for us. More importantly, you can't imagine the impact this special bonus got, because and I will close with this. Thanks to all the hard work that has been made since the last 10 years, we have built a unique offer. Our revenue mix, hopefully you got that, 30% data and technology accretive to our goals, transforming the rest of our business exactly where our client is, make a big difference.

We have been working like crazy to win new business and have a go-to-market that is truly differentiated. That, by the way, I think this is something you need to take into account. We are the one winning more new business than the other. Over the last four years, or over the last five years, we have been number one, 4x in a row. During all of this period, we have continued to increase our margin, which means that we are not buying market share. At the opposite, we sell something special that can justify a premium. This, again, is due to capabilities, and we have built these platform capabilities that make us confident to deliver still the best margin in the industry while investing in our people and absorbing inflation.

All of this doesn't work if we don't have people that wants to work as one for the company. When we do something like the one week salary, which honestly, I shouldn't say that, but it's the end of the call and maybe this will be a comment I should make. We did that in Q2, Q3, while we didn't know exactly where we were on the land and how too far we look. We consider that we were strong enough and our model was strong enough to actually reward people when they need the most.

To come back to what you are saying, it had an amazing impact on the people that got it, an amazing impact on the leader that said that they were in the right place, an amazing impact on our clients, and also a big question mark for our competition. I will leave you there. I thank you all very much for the call. Sorry to have been so long. Alessandra and the team are here for you all day long. [Foreign language] and see you soon. Bye. Thanks.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.

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