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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Feb 10, 2022

Florence Tresarrieu
Global SVP of Investor Relations, Treasury and Group Cash Performance, Pernod Ricard

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Pernod Ricard first half sales and the results call FY 2022. We're hosted this morning by Alexandre Ricard, our Chairman and CEO, and Hélène de Tissot, our EVP, Finance, IT & Operations, will take you through the presentation and then take your questions. Alexandre, over to you.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Well, thank you very much, Florence. Good morning to all of you. I hope you're well and safe. Here we go for our half year results, July 1st to December 31st. First of all, very strong net sales performance with a record sales of EUR 6 billion. In organic growth of 17% and reported growth of 20%. This is driven by robust consumer demand across most, if not all, markets. This growth is diversified coming from all the regions and spread amongst all the categories with a clear on-trade rebound and a strong resilience of the off-trade. All must-win markets, and we'll see this in more detail later, are growing strongly and market share gains have occurred in most of our markets internationally.

We have a strong price and mix on our Strategic Brands of 6%. There's also a very strong financial performance. You'll see dynamic sales with phasing of A&P, A&P spend resulting in a strong margin expansion of roughly 150 basis points. Very strong cash generation with a free cash flow, a recurring free cash flow of EUR 1.4 billion, an increase of +39% versus the same period last year. Talking about our financial policy, we've continued our active portfolio management with the acquisition of The Whisky Exchange that we had announced a few months ago, and a minority stake in Sovereign Brands. We have resumed our share buyback with the execution over the first half of this year, fiscal year, of EUR 250 million.

In terms of business transformation, we call it velocity, of course. We've upgraded the pace at which we're transforming our business. Clear drive on our 2030 Sustainability and Responsibility roadmap. Agile resource allocation, investing on our strategic priorities. Finally, very strong progress on our digital transformation. Of course, solid e-commerce growth. Here you have the table summarizing our financial performance. By the way, if you look at versus pre-COVID as well, you'll see that we're far above the pre-COVID levels. I'll just take the net sales number. + 17% versus last year, but that is 13% above the pre-COVID level. Going forward as well, creating value for all our stakeholders. As said, we have advanced at pace on our Sustainability and Responsibility roadmap.

I'd just like to stress two messages here. We've run our iSay, which is our internal poll, our employee feedback survey. The one thing is the very, very strong, I would say the outstanding commitment and engagement of all our employees across the world. Again, I would like to praise their commitment, their work, all the efforts they've been going through for the last years, and in particular, this first half of our fiscal year. The results are there, and without them, the results would not be there. Again, thank you to all our colleagues from around the world for driving such remarkable results. The other topic I'd like to mention on this slide is, of course, we're very, very active on engaging with our consumers around the world around responsible drinking.

Our campaign, which was launched last summer as the on-trade was reopening, our campaign about drink more water, is a huge success, and we have now reached above 60 million young adults over 34 countries. This is very important for us. Again, agility to gain exposure to fast-growing categories and scale acquired brands. I mentioned the acquisition of The Whisky Exchange, which will remain absolutely independent. I mentioned the minority stake we took in Sovereign Brands and the work we're gonna be doing together in terms of co-creation. Also, you know, the successful integration within the Pernod Ricard ecosystem, within the Pernod Ricard distribution network. Pernod Ricard at the service of entrepreneurs and their little babies, if I may say so. Look at Monkey 47.

We've multiplied by four, since 2016, the sales of Monkey 47. Multiplied by three for Del Maguey. Multiplied by two our American whiskey portfolio. And multiplied by five the gin, the Malfy Gin, since its acquisition in 2019. So it's quite a nice recipe for success. Well, deep diving, clearly my region, you see that all regions are in double-digit growth. America's +14%. Asia, rest of the world, +16%. Europe, plus a remarkable 21%, driving 17%. Of course, all regions above pre-COVID levels.

If we dive into our must-win markets, all of them are in dynamic growth, starting with the U.S., +9%, +17% versus pre-COVID levels with a strong on-trade recovery, very strong rebound there, and a resilient off-trade, which is driving good sell-out growth for us. The growth is driven by Jameson, but also by Martell, by our Super Premium whiskeys, our American whiskey portfolio, but as well Redbreast and the higher marques as well of Jameson. Very strong rebound of Jameson in the on-trade, and the recent launch of Jameson Orange, which took place a few days ago, which we expect to see roll out throughout the whole of this second semester. Excellent performance of Martell with a new media campaign, and we'll talk about this a little bit later.

Very solid contribution to growth of The Glenlivet, which is the leading single malt whiskey in the U.S., and of course, the continued development of our Agave portfolio, in particular, our Mezcal brand, Del Maguey. Global travel retail is still below pre-COVID levels, - 40%, versus pre-COVID, but in strong growth, up 38%. We're really witnessing a steady recovery of international passenger traffic outside of Asia, principally in Americas, principally in Europe. There's a return to growth in all regions, of course. Finally, resumption of strong activation. We're back in investment mode in the travel retail channel, notably behind brands such as Jameson and Chivas Regal. China up 14% and up 28% versus pre-COVID, with good growth with a very good, in fact, MAF last semester.

Solid Martell sell-out despite some localized on-trade disruption in the first semester related to the sanitary environment. Acceleration, or should I say clear acceleration of The Glenlivet, a very strong growth of Royal Salute and Ballantine's. A very strong development of Absolut Vodka. Finally, for those who haven't seen, we've unveiled and inaugurated officially The Chuan, which is China's first ever malt whisky distillery by an international player by ourselves. The last of our four must-win markets, India, up 19% last year and up 12% versus pre-COVID. Let's turn to a broad-based growth both in terms of our Indian whisky portfolio, but also in terms of our important brands, our strategic international brands that are in very very strong growth there.

Now, excellent momentum and market share gains in most markets. Indeed, Europe is up 21%. A very strong rebound in France, which should slow down, however, in the second half. Very strong rebound in Spain, up 34%, clearly driven by the reopening of the on-trade and with some strong innovation there. Strong growth of Havana Club in the U.K., of Jameson in the U.K., of Absolut in the U.K. Good performance, very good performance of our spirits portfolio in the U.K. Continued good growth in Germany, despite the high comparison last year. Remember last year, Germany was in strong growth. Very strong growth as well in Russia, driven by our whiskeys, in particular, Jameson and Absolut. Sorry, Jameson and Ballantine's.

Finally, a very strong double-digit growth of +22% in Poland, related as well to the rebound of the on-trade. Americas up 14%. Slight decline in Canada on a very high comparable basis. Very good growth in Brazil and as well as in Mexico. Asia, rest of the world, up 16%. Good recovery in Japan. Very good growth for our premium international spirit brands in Korea. Outstanding growth in Nigeria, principally driven by Jameson and Martell. Finally, very strong double-digit growth in Turkey in particular, behind all our whiskeys and Absolut. If we look at our performance from a brand point of view, again, very diversified growth across the whole portfolio with our Strategic Brands.

International brands up 19%, really driven by all our strategic international brands. Our strategic local brands up 14%, in particular our Seagram's whiskeys. Specialty brands up 21% on the basis of 22% growth last year. Continued very dynamic momentum. Our American whiskeys, of course. Some of our malts, of course. Malfy Gin, Monkey 47, Redbreast, our Agave portfolio, and of course, not forgetting Lillet.

A soft first half for our strategic wines, down 6%, in particular related to supply constraints, and a soft harvest for our New Zealand wines. If we look at our brands a little bit in more detail, you see that Martell is up 11%, up 8% versus pre-COVID levels, driven by China, of course, but also driven by the U.S. Jameson up 22%, so continued strong global expansion. The strong performance is related, of course, to the U.S., but not only. Europe is in very strong double-digit growth. There's Russia, there's Ireland, there's the U.K., there's Germany. We can say it's broad-based, both in emerging markets and in developed markets, and also in sub-Saharan Africa, and as well as in Asia, in particular in India.

Absolut is up 23%, and also up 8% versus pre-COVID levels. Excellent international development for Absolut, up 35% outside of the U.S., but also strong resilience in the U.S. related to the on-trade recovery and with some good pricing globally, especially driven by Eastern Europe and Brazil. Our Scotch portfolio is up 23% and is up 10% versus pre-COVID levels. The key message here is that the growth is broad-based across the portfolio and across the regions. You see Chivas up 23%. You see Ballantine's up 29%, The Glenlivet up 21%, and the remarkable performance of Royal Salute up 41%. We've invested quite a lot behind our brands during the first half, with A&P up 16%.

We've had great campaigns, a global one behind Chivas XV, which is delivering very strong results. A brand-new campaign in India, where we've invested quite significantly over the first half behind Blenders Pride with a new ambassador, Alia Bhatt, and therefore, as I mentioned, a new campaign. We introduced Fill Your World with Wonder with Perrier-Jouët, very successful campaign as well. Finally, just a last example here, but it's not limited to these four examples, of course, Soar Beyond the Expected, which is the new campaign behind the Martell Blue Swift in the U.S., which is experiencing a huge success. I could not resist to show you what this campaign looks like. Maybe we can see a video right now. Video, please.

Speaker 14

[Presentation]

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

There you go. Huge success, and this campaign will continue to develop throughout the full fiscal year in the U.S. Strong growth behind our innovations. Innovation has grown by 43% over the first half. I mentioned earlier the launch of Jameson Orange in this second half of the year in the U.S., and it was launched a couple months ago in the U.K. and rolling out to a number of other markets as we speak. The continued development of Ballantine's and Beefeater Light in Spain, you see here the visuals. The launch of The Glenlivet 15-year-old, which is being rolled out globally. Very strong development of Absolut Watermelon.

Martell Blue Swift, I already mentioned, and you saw, the campaign. Finally, a really remarkable development for our Chivas thirteen-year-old Sherry, which by the way, tastes remarkably well. Specialty brands, I won't come back on the +21%. It's really broad-based. I mentioned all these brands you see here on the slide, whether it's Monkey or American Whiskies or Agave portfolio, Lillet, or again, some of our high-end whiskeys, starting with Aberlour, but also Redbreast. Likewise, our other strategic international brands that are growing, they're all growing. Malibu up 9%, Beefeater up 31%, Havana Club up 12%, Ricard up 2%, Mumm up 24%, Perrier-Jouët up 51%, and finally, our prestige portfolio, which is growing 18%.

On that note, on these notes, on these beautiful numbers, I'd like to hand over to Hélène to see how they translate into profit.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Thank you, Alexandre. Good morning, every

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Merci

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Look at the profit. First, with the profit from recurring operations, with these dynamic sales that Alexandre presented to you and the A&P spend phasing, we are delivering a strong operating margin expansion of close to 150 basis points. The gross margin is expanding by 39 basis points with strong pricing across regions and operational excellence savings that are more than compensating inflation in cost of goods, notably from logistics and commodities.

We have some phasing in the A&P, as I just mentioned, so we should expect some acceleration in the second semester, as we are expecting to roughly spend 16% of our net sales for the full year at 2022. Structural costs are reinforced to support the sales growth, but as well the transformation momentum, which is leading to this, +2 2% organic growth from profit from recurring operation. You should add to that positive FX, which is then bringing the PR growth to 25%. This positive FX amounts to EUR 39 million, and it's mainly due to US dollar and Chinese yuan appreciation. Moving now to the net profit from recurring operations, which is growing at an excellent pace, which is driving as well a significant EPS increase.

The profit from recurring operations is increasing by 32% thanks to the increase of profit from recurring operations I just mentioned. With as well a very strong improvement in the financial results given the recent financing. We have now an average cost of debt of 2.2%. The income tax on recurring operations is increasing along with the profit growth. When it comes to the EPS, it's growing by 33% with an accretive impact of the share buyback. Moving now to the group share of net profit. An excellent performance as well for this first half, as the group share of net profit is increasing by 44%. We have a strong increase in net profit given by the increase in the profit from recurring operations.

Again, a lower non-recurring operating items on high comparison basis last year with some restructuring costs that we spent in H1 last year with the group transformation. The lower financial expenses with a historically low cost of debt and the increase in corporate income tax I was just referring to. Moving now to the cash generation. A very strong cash generation in this first half with EUR 1.4 billion recurring free cash flow, which is a growth of 39%, roughly EUR 400 million more than the year before. The recurring operating cash flow is at close to EUR 1.7 billion, + EUR 400 million versus last year. This is linked to the higher usage of maturing inventories given the strong business recovery.

There is some cash out increase to expect in second half as we continue for sure to invest in future growth. There is some negative working capital requirement variation in this first half, which is very fair given the very dynamic business growth and the usual seasonality in this first half. Our CapEx are broadly stable versus last year. We should expect some acceleration in H2 to support as well the future growth. Financial expenses and taxes are increasing very modestly with the historically low average cost of debt I was already mentioning. We have as well, from a cash point of view, reduced non-recurring items against a high base last year. All in all, our free cash flow is growing by 58%.

Moving now to the debt evolution. We had a dynamic financial policy supported by this consistent, strong, cash delivery, leading to a net debt of EUR 7.9 billion at the end of December, with a ratio of net debt to EBITDA of 2.4. A very strong balance sheet with an excellent cash performance, allowing the M&A cash out that Alexandre mentioned before with the acquisition of The Whisky Exchange and the minority stake purchase of Sovereign Brands.

We have executed the EUR 250 million share buyback program in this first half, and we have as well paid EUR 820 million dividend, which is an increase of EUR 120 million back to versus last year, which is back to the historical high, aligned obviously with our 50% payout policy. Back to you, Alexandre, for the conclusion and outlook.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Well, thank you very much, Hélène. As you can see, we're really focused on delivering our Transform & Accelerate strategy, and so far, so good. Now, looking forward, so looking towards our second half, January to June. Well, of course, we expect the environment to remain somewhat volatile. Despite this environment, clearly we expect to see continued on-trade rebound, continued resilience of the off-trade. The gradual recovery of travel retail should continue, and therefore this should continue to drive, number one, strong and number two, diversified sales momentum across all regions. We do believe that the dynamic top line will drive some operating margin expansion, albeit moderating somewhat versus the first half, with increased investments to fuel growth momentum.

As Hélène explained, A&P will be roughly around 16% of our net sales. We also will continue to implement our Transform & Accelerate roadmap, specifically around our digital transformation to develop Pernod Ricard into a Conviviality Platform. More to come on that note during our Capital Markets Day. Finally, we expect strong cash generation while upweighting investments behind key CapEx and strategic inventories.

Finally, the Board has decided to accelerate our share buyback program with an additional EUR 250 million. That would be a total of EUR 750 million for the full fiscal year 2022 versus half a billion initially presented. I think that on that note, we can go to the Q&A, Florence.

Florence Tresarrieu
Global SVP of Investor Relations, Treasury and Group Cash Performance, Pernod Ricard

Thank you, Hélène and Alexandre. We will now turn to your question. Operator, if you can please, sorry, open the line to the first question.

Operator

Question comes from the line of Andrea Pistacchi with Bank of America.

Andrea Pistacchi
Managing Director, Bank of America

Hi. Good morning, Alex, good morning, Hélène. I have two questions, please. The first one is on pricing and the pricing environment in some markets. I think you said 6% price mix on your Strategic Brands, so clearly strong. But more specifically on pricing, could you talk about how you're seeing the environment in the U.S., what brands you've been able to put pricing through? Are we getting anywhere near the point where you can actually think of taking pricing on some of those brands where we haven't seen pricing in many years? On China, please, whether I don't know whether you're able to share whether you're planning a price increase in China also this year.

This is typically the time when you take it. My second question, please, for Hélène on the balance sheet. Net debt to EBITDA heading towards historical lows, even with the incremental buyback leverage should continue to decline. What's the optimal level for you of net debt to EBITDA, and how are you thinking about use of cash going forward? I mean, could the buyback conceivably continue to increase in the absence of potential M&A?

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Okay, thank you. Maybe I'll start with those two questions, if that's all right with you, Alexandre. Pricing environment, obviously a very important topic in the current environment. We are seeing some positive price mix, which is this +6% you were referring to. It's partially delivered by the mix, but as well by a strong pricing benefit in this first half. This is mainly linked to, I would say, two drivers. First, we are getting the benefit of last year price increase. Back to your second question, obviously, this is as well largely driven by the Martell price increase that took place back in March, April last year in China.

There was as well some other price increase in other geographies, for instance, in Russia in January 2021. We were able as well to put in place some new price increase in this first half in many markets, I would say, especially in emerging markets. We did increase prices quite significantly in countries like Turkey, as well in Nigeria, in Brazil, but as well in other markets. For the U.S., thanks for asking that question. That's really a very hot topic because we just announced a few days ago the significant price increase of our portfolio in the U.S., I think as of first of February, if I'm not wrong. This is happening as we speak on many brands in the U.S.

China, as you know, it's too early to talk about price increase. We never comment price increase ahead of, let's say, actual implementation and decision. Most of the time, a good timing to think about increasing prices in China is after Chinese New Year. Moving now to the question on the balance sheet. Thanks for highlighting the strong deleveraging that took place, that thanks to obviously the acceleration of our EBITDA and as well the very strong cash generation that I was detailing. As you know, we don't give a specific optimal level or target in term of leverage. No change on that topic.

Having said that, this strong cash generation is obviously very helpful to allow us to have a very active and strong financial policy. I will just repeat our four priorities that I'm sure you know. First, invest behind the organic growth and the future of our growth. This is obviously true for all the spending we have in the P&L, but as well to increase our strategic inventory and to strengthen the CapEx. That's why I was flagging that you should expect as well some acceleration short-term. On that topic, we have as well a quite active M&A strategy as we as well illustrated for this semester. The dividend payout policy is as well quite strong, obviously.

If after those, all those three priorities, we have some, let's say, significant cash available, we believe that this is the right thing to do to return it to our shareholders. No change as well on that. I would say this cash generation is as well, obviously a very strong pillar for us to invest for the future.

Andrea Pistacchi
Managing Director, Bank of America

Okay, thank you.

Operator

This question comes from the line of Ed Mundy with Jefferies.

Ed Mundy
Senior Research Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning, Alex. Good morning, Hélène. 3 questions from me, please. The first is around structural costs, which are down about 100 basis points versus H1 2021 and 90 basis points versus H1 2020. You know, clearly part of this is operating leverage, but there's also good cost discipline from the transformation momentum. Hélène, are you able to provide a bit more color around some of the key buckets here that's really driving that operating leverage?

The second question's really around the outlook that appears to be upgraded from good growth to strong growth. You know, clearly it's still a slightly volatile environment, but you're seeing really good momentum within your business, and you're talking about a dynamic top line. Does this imply that in the second half, growth might still be ahead of the medium-term 4%-7% as the recovery comes through? And then the third question is around the Conviviality Platform, Alex, that you've fleshed out with results back in September. You know, one of the opportunities is to activate more brands. I think you talked to activating as much as 30 brands in any given market versus previously more like 10.

Is the goal here to scale up the specialty brands or is it to just focus on more sort of local brands in each market?

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

SVI's structure costs.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Maybe I start with the question on the structure. As you said, this is contributing to the margin expansion in this first half, despite a significant reinforcement of our structure. Just to remind you that we are now back to, let's say, a more business as usual way of building our structure for the future, meaning there is no recruitment freeze or salary freeze. We are really investing behind our teams and the resources to Transform & Accelerate in line with our strategy. It's not increasing as much as the top line because of all the dynamics we mentioned for the top line, and that's why we are getting to this operating margin expansion.

What I would like to say is that you should expect those structures to keep being reinforced over the fiscal year because of all the strategic priorities I was mentioning. Obviously with a very purpose-driven focus, we did reorganize our business pre-COVID and during COVID for a very good reason to have the right teams at the right place, and we want to keep that, obviously, moving on, but at the same time, to invest behind strategic priorities, and our people are definitely part of our strategic priorities.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Okay. On your question on the outlook, Ed, of course, we have our Transform & Accelerate, let's say, global framework on, let's say in a normal or normalized world on an ongoing basis. We believe that the way we are set up in terms of geographical exposure and segment exposure, that the framework within which we operate is a framework that can deliver 4%-7% top line kind of growth. We always said that you would have outliers in some cases negatively. By the way, 2020 was one of these outliers of -10%. In other cases positively. It clearly looks like this year will be an outlier if you look at our first half.

To put it in a nutshell and answer your question tangibly, yes, we do expect, without giving any quantified guidance for the second half, but we do expect second half to still look like an outlier in terms of top line versus that 4%-7% framework. You should expect to see second half to be above that kind of level, and that's why we did mention, you know, continued dynamism of top line growth for the full year, for the second half as well.

For your question on the Conviviality Platform, and specifically on specialty, you know, over the course of the last few years, we've acquired, you know, a dozen brands and they're all specialty brands. Today, specialty brands account for roughly 5% of our global business. They've grown 21% over the first half on the basis of 22% growth last year at the same time on the basis of, again, strong growth the previous year. If all of these specialty brands were summed up to being one brand, you know, this would start being, you know, quite a nice impactful and weighty acquisition.

I do think that having a portfolio of these brands, and if we're capable of activating that portfolio in the right way and at scale, clearly this could be a very dynamic source of growth for the group as it's starting to be. This is the whole basis or ethos behind the Conviviality Platform concept, which is to be able to activate more and more brands by having the right brand proposed to the right consumer at the right time with the right content at the right price, and this at scale, leveraging, in fact, data. This is exactly our intent, and we're starting to see this happen in particular on specialty brands, but not just across our entire portfolio of brands.

Ed Mundy
Senior Research Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Operator

This question comes from the line of Olivier Nicolaï with Goldman Sachs.

Olivier Nicolaï
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good morning, Alexandre. Good morning, Hélène . Alexandre, last year you've joined the board of L'Oréal, which operates in many markets you know very well, and it's also very advanced in e-commerce. I know it's still early days, but what do you think you could learn from L'Oréal, and how could it be applied to Pernod in the medium term? Second question is, obviously we've heard a lot of commentaries about disposable income pressure, whether it's in the U.S. or in Europe or in emerging markets. Are there any market in particular or part of your portfolio where you see any pressure moving into H2 and beyond? Just lastly, a follow-up on your guidance. So you flagged a dynamic top line driving operating margin expansion albeit moderating versus H1.

I was just wondering if you could perhaps tell us if you are referring to organic margin progression on the organic basis or if it's reported margin for H2. Thank you.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Well, thank you for your questions. I'll take the first one, of course. Listen, I'm very happy to have joined the board of L'Oréal. I do believe, first of all, that we share many values together between Pernod Ricard and L'Oréal. We're not competitors, but we do have similar dynamics. We do have similar opportunities. We do have similar challenges. Ever since I joined the L'Oréal board, I've learned a lot as well. I do think that in terms of digital transformation, there's a lot happening at L'Oréal and a lot happening as well at Pernod Ricard.

In terms of channel management, as well, the omni-channel concept, as well, there are many things to do. In terms of geographical exposure, some similarities as well. I do think, and by the way, they're announcing their full year results right now as we speak. Listen, all I can say is, to be fair, when I was appointed Chairman and CEO in 2015, my clear commitment to my Board and to my investors was to be solely focused on Pernod Ricard during my first mandate.

As I now entered into my second mandate, I thought and my Board thought it would be a great idea for me to get exposure to another board of another company, where you know there would be mutual positivity. The opportunity of L'Oréal popped up, and that's a great opportunity. I do think it's working quite well. Thank you for asking the question. Hélène?

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Your second question was around the inflation pressure and what could be the impact for the consumers. To be fair, as you know, premiumization has been a long-term trend for a while now, and despite previous crisis that occurred over the past, whatever, 20 years. We believe that, as well, this drink better is a very powerful trend and probably quite sticky, if I may say. We are quite positive for the future with this long-term trend of premiumization and probably as well the strength of our brand's portfolio with which is very inspiring for the consumer. At least we are working hard to make it happen. Second question was on the guidance.

Yes, we are talking about organic expansion here.

Olivier Nicolaï
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Hales with Citi.

Simon Hales
Managing Director of Consumer Staples and Beverages Research, Citi

Thank you. Morning, Hélène. Morning, Alex. Morning, Florence. Three questions from me as well, if I can, please. If you could just talk a little bit more about the A&P phasing. I think obviously the spend in the Americas in the first half looked like it had been held back. Is that where we should expect to see some of the biggest acceleration in the second half of the year? If there's any more details you can generally share, you know, from a marketing standpoint as to where things will be stepping up in the second half. Secondly, just coming back to the earlier question of Ed's around structural costs. I think, Hélène, you know, you said you would continue to invest through the fiscal in structural costs.

How should we think about that rate of investment in the second half relative to H1? You know, will it be lower, or should we think about a similar rate of investment? Finally, I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about any early thoughts and trading trends that you saw through Chinese New Year. You know, so maybe share momentum, how stock levels are, you know, sort of post the holiday period, please.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Yeah.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Okay.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

I'll start with the question on the A&P phasing. First, it's true that there's obviously some impact of the phasing between H1 and H2. The reason why I mentioned as well our ambition to spend circa 16% of the net sales in A&P for the year is to tell you that there's no doubt about our ambition here. We have great marketing assets. There's a lot to come, and a lot happened already in H1, but there's a lot to come in H2. Some phasing here, which by the way, happened already in the past.

It's fair that, because of the year as well, the weight of the net sales between H1 and H2, you have some impact in term of ratio because the weight of the net sales in H1 is stronger than it is in H2. When it comes to the brand activation and to the way we are engaging on consumer, I would say a strong ambition again for the full year. The acceleration, to be fair, is gonna happen in many geographies because as we said, the dynamism of the top line is probably gonna as well materialize again across the geographies. Acceleration everywhere. Especially as well in the U.S. That's fair for you to flag that.

There's a lot of activation for us in the coming weeks and months in the U.S. to support some great, I would say, festive season and opportunity with St. Patrick's Day and many others happening in May to prepare the summer in the U.S. There's as well some exciting innovation launches. We mentioned Jameson Orange, which is happening right now. You can expect as well some strong activation behind Jameson Orange in the U.S. in the coming weeks as well on many more innovation. We had the launch of Avión Reserva 44 Cristalino, which is happening as well in the coming days. We have as well some innovation with Jefferson's.

A lot to watch, hopefully, and to enjoy in the U.S. in the near future. For the structural cost, I'm not gonna give you the exact growth for the second half. What I think is fair to flag is that the structural costs, as I mentioned, I believe before, are not gonna grow probably as fast as the top line for this fiscal year 2022. You should expect, despite the structural costs reinforcements, some leverage coming from this line.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Yeah. Thank you for asking the question on Chinese New Year. First of all, we had a good first half in China, and we had a very strong Mid-Autumn Festival. Now, we've put in place everything in terms of execution. We have a very strong execution program, which was rolled out ahead of and during Chinese New Year. Still, sorry to say this because every year we have the same question, and every year we say we have the same answer. Unfortunately, we still don't have real-time data in terms of consumer offtake. It's still too early to tell.

The only kind of indication I can give you is more a qualitative one, which is might be a slightly softer start than it was last year. Now, bear in mind, last year was a remarkable, I think you used the word a stellar Chinese New Year last year. Softer start versus last year. It's too early to tell because we'll have the real depletions during the month of March in a month or so. We'll have to wait for our next communication on that front.

Simon Hales
Managing Director of Consumer Staples and Beverages Research, Citi

Very helpful quality comments. Much, much welcome too, Alex. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Whyatt with Barclays.

Laurence Whyatt
Head of European Beverages Research, Barclays

Morning. Thanks very much for the questions. Three from me, if that's okay. Firstly, on the digital part of your business, you said there's strong progress in the digital transformation, and you've made the acquisition of The Whisky Exchange. I was just wondering if you could split out your ambitions on B2B digital versus B2C that you've clearly got with The Whisky Exchange. Secondly, in the Spain part of the slides, you highlighted some supply tensions. I was just wondering if you could elaborate on those a little bit. Finally on the A&P spend, the 16% guide for the year, I mean, obviously it depends on what the top line is, but implies something in the region of 18.5% of sales in the second half.

As we look forward into your sort of medium-term guidance, is that the sort of split that we'd expect first half, second half, low 14s% in the first half of the year and then sort of mid-18s% in the second half of the year, because the second half sales is somewhat lower than the first half sales in normal years? Is that sort of how you're thinking about it, or is this year particularly unusual due to COVID recovery or other things? Thank you very much.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Thanks, Laurence. On digital, listen, we don't share our objectives at that level of granularity between B2B, B2C, or B2B2C, by the way. I just wanna take the opportunity to mention that our digital transformation is not just related to e-commerce. It is really related to every single function of our business. It is really related to the entire organization and our ways of working. It is all about leveraging the data to really have a lot more impact in our ways of investing, in our ways of promoting, in our ways of engaging with consumers and with customers and so on and so forth. I'll stop there because this is, I would say, the teaser for Capital Markets Day.

On supply, as you all know and you've all read in the media and in the press, you know, there is some tension across the whole supply chain. I'd like to take this opportunity again because our supply chain people across the world from grain all the way through to glass, they've worked remarkably well to make sure that our bottles, that our products end up on shelf whether it's in a store or on shelf if it's in a back bar. They've worked remarkably well.

Yes, we've had a few supply chain incidents, one of them being gin in Spain, which was under a little bit of supply constraints because of some tension. Listen, this is quite immaterial compared to the business. At the end of the day, when you look at our performance over the first half, yeah, maybe there are a couple of cases that didn't make it all the way through to the shelf on time. Again, the teams did a remarkable job to make sure that, let's say, everybody, with a couple of exceptions, were able to celebrate accordingly with our brands around the world.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

If I may, before talking about the A&P phasing, I would just like to add, as you mentioned, Alex, right away for the first half, that this supply tension is obviously mobilizing many people across the group, and it will be the case in H2. I would like as well to flag the work that we are doing with our suppliers that are really working hard with us to help, let's say, each other in this specific context of this very positive discussion happening as well with our suppliers to be sure that we are managing and navigating in those tough times together. For the A&P phasing, no specific, I would say, ratio target by semester.

What we want, to be fair, is really to have lots of agility in the way we are allocating resources. It starts obviously with A&P. There's no target by semester. As I mentioned, you could expect the seasonality of the net sales to still be quite consistent in the near future because of the off-trade weight in the H1 and then obviously some more Asian festive season in H2 moving forward.

Laurence Whyatt
Head of European Beverages Research, Barclays

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Stirling with Bernstein.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Research Analyst and Managing Director, Bernstein

Good morning, Alex and Hélène. Most of my question's been asked already, but just one on specialty brands. You've put out the very impressive growth that you've achieved with the specialty brands, Alex, but I noticed that the American whiskey portfolio has not been quite as dynamic as the others. Does that reflect to some extent stock limitations? Or maybe just talk a little bit about to what extent you're limited in terms of stock in terms of growing those brands.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

You know, the whiskey portfolio grew 31% over the first half. I don't know if it's not as strong as some other brands, but clearly we see our whiskey portfolio in the U.S. as extremely dynamic, and principally led by Jefferson's, which is really having outstanding growth, but also Rabbit Hole, which is a great proposition as well. But in fact, all of them, TX and Smooth Ambler, no supply constraints limiting growth on our portfolio as we speak. If and when obviously this kind of growth keeps on happening structurally, we'll make sure we invest the right way to support that growth. But so far so good.

I do think it's quite a good growth to post 31% on our American whiskeys. By the way, I think in one of the very first slides I shared with you over the course of the last, let's say, two to three years, we've doubled our whiskey portfolio in terms of net sales. The performance I think is quite strong. For that, I'd like to congratulate the team in the U.S., because they're doing a great job on the sales front, but also on the marketing side behind these brands.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Research Analyst and Managing Director, Bernstein

Thank you very much, Alex.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

We get.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla with Credit Suisse.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Shanjit.

Sanjeet Aujla
Managing Director of Beverage Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Morning, everyone. I've a few questions from the U.S., please. I think your sell-in was 9% in H1. Is that consistent with your sell-out trends? I recall in Q1 there was some trade loading into off-trade, but I'd just love to get a feel for where sell-out trends are against that. Then just following up on Jameson Orange, what's the target audience and occasion here. Do you expect that innovation to be incremental to the franchise or potentially could cannibalize a little bit of core Jameson? Thirdly, if you're just able to quantify the price increase you've put through the portfolio, that'd be great. Thank you.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Okay. I'll start maybe with the first and the third question. On the third one, we are not gonna give you the exact number. To be fair, it's happening on many brands, so it would take me a few minutes to go through the precise list, but it's quite global as I mentioned, and happening right now. The first question was referring to the sell-out in the U.S. We have a strong sell-in, +9%. Our sell-out as well are strong versus last year. This is mainly linked to the very strong growth in the on-trade.

By the way, before letting Alexandre comment, answer your question, Jameson Orange, I must say Jameson is a key contributor to that performance in the on-trade with a very strong rebound. As you know, we have as well a strong exposure in the on-trade as well. Thanks, but not only thanks to Jameson. Very strong performance in the on-trade. We are a bit behind in the off-trade, so slightly behind the market when you add on and off. Your question was as well in terms of trade inventory. As you know, we are monitoring our trade inventory very closely, especially on a full year basis.

What we can say right now is that probably with the strength of the rebound in the U.S., there might be some restocking in the retail, probably not very significant, but it's true that in the current context of supply tensions, probably some outlets are doing their best to have the level of inventory they believe they need to satisfy this very strong rebound and very strong consumer demand.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

On Jameson Orange, to put it in a nutshell, it's incremental. I just wanna clarify one thing. I don't mind if there were cannibalization. It's always nicer to cannibalize yourself rather than be cannibalized by competition. In that specific case, what Jameson Orange is designed to do, and as a consumer-centric company, it is really designed to go get consumers out there that have developed a taste for some very specific flavors. So we're gonna recruit into the Jameson franchise a different type of profile of consumer. By the way, for those of you who have not tasted yet Jameson Orange, number one, it tastes remarkably well. Number two, my favorite perfect serve is Jameson Orange old-fashioned as a cocktail.

Obviously, I'll let you try it whichever way you want. I'm looking forward to seeing how successful it can be in the coming weeks and months, especially in the U.S.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

I think we're gonna take our last question, if you don't mind.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Pitcher with Redburn.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Thank you very much. A couple of questions from me. Firstly, on the Americas, there was a modest gross margin compression in the period, but I expect that was all due to geographic mix. Could you give us a bit more detail on how the U.S. gross margin developed? Also just a bit more color on just how strong Mexico and Brazil have been. Because after many years of restructuring the Latin American portfolio, do you think you're now on much firmer footing there for sustainable growth? Secondly, just on supply chain issues to the U.S., there were some reports of difficulties getting Jameson into the market. Can you just reassure us that you're getting Jameson, The Glenlivet in to meet the high demand? Thanks very much.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

I'll answer the second one and let Hélène answer the first. Yeah, I saw these articles. I think it was regarding a pub in Bourbon Street in New Orleans, which did generate a little bit of buzz, you know. Listen, you might have anecdotal issues here and there, for sure. Again, as we mentioned, there is tension on the supply chain. Please be reassured that our brands are out there on shelf in front of our consumers.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Your first question was on the margin expansion in Americas. Maybe just to be quite fast on that one, I would say we have a positive margin evolution in all our geographies in Americas as well. Your second question was on Mexico and Brazil. I'll start with Brazil. Very strong growth in Brazil, which is driven by very strong volume rebound, very strong pricing and share gains with a very strong performance of brands like Chivas, like Ballantine's, Absolut and as well Beefeater. Very strong performance there. That's great. Mexico as well is contributing to that strong performance of LatAm in this first half. Thank you, operator. I think that was our last question.

Florence Tresarrieu
Global SVP of Investor Relations, Treasury and Group Cash Performance, Pernod Ricard

Thank you very much, Hélène and Alexandre. Thank you all for your question. Stay safe and enjoy our product responsibly.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Thank you.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Thank you.

Operator

With Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 13

Hello. I'm not sure if you've finished or not, but if we're still going, I've got a couple of questions. The first was, you've had 13% growth in the first half versus fiscal 2019. Given the on-trade is reopening, travel retail is potentially better, is there any reason you can see for that slowing? My second question is, yesterday, there was a U.S. Treasury report on competition in beer, wine, and spirits. I appreciate it's still pretty new, and there's probably some puts and takes, but have you got any views on how that might change competition within spirits, and your position within the U.S. market? Thank you.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Sorry. We didn't hear very well your first question. If you can repeat the first question. Sorry, operator, I'm not sure you heard me. I think we get this is going to be our last question. If you don't mind repeating the first part of your question, and then I think we got the second part. Thank you.

Speaker 13

Yeah, of course. So you've achieved 13% growth in the first half relative to fiscal 2019. You've got the on-trade reopening a bit more, potentially travel retail getting better. Can you see any reason for you not to be able to deliver similar growth relative to 2019 in the second half of the year? I think you said you got my second question about the U.S. Treasury report, but I'm happy to repeat that if necessary.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Okay. I'm gonna answer the first question first, thanks for asking it so that I can clarify it. The 13% is versus first half of fiscal year 2020, not 2019. Because in the first half of fiscal year 2020, we were still running the business without any disruption from COVID. This is from fiscal year 2020. Obviously you can imagine my answer for H2. We're gonna have a very abnormal basis of comparison in the second half of fiscal year 2020, because obviously this was the time period where COVID impacted us and the whole world in all geographies. The numbers was versus H1 fiscal year 2020.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Yeah. Now, on your second question, we don't comment.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Thank you very much.

Speaker 13

Understood. Thank you.

Florence Tresarrieu
Global SVP of Investor Relations, Treasury and Group Cash Performance, Pernod Ricard

Thank you. This is concluding our call. Thanks again for the questions. Thanks, Hélène and Alexandre, and speak soon.

Hélène de Tissot
EVP of Finance, IT and Operations, Pernod Ricard

Thank you.

Alexandre Ricard
Chairman and CEO, Pernod Ricard

Thank you.

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