Good afternoon, this is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Rexel's 4th quarter and full year 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Guillaume Texier, Group CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Good evening to everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our 4th quarter sales and full year 2023 results conference. Thank you also for making yourselves available at an unusual time. As you know, Rexel usually communicates in the morning, but there were a number of other companies issuing results tomorrow morning, so to help make your lives easier we moved the time of our call. We hope we are not spoiling your Valentine's Day plan. I'm here today with Laurent Delabarre, our CFO. I will focus on a few highlights on our performance. Laurent will give you greater granularity on our numbers, and I'll conclude with a progress report on our strategic roadmap as well as the outlook for 2024. Let's begin on slide 3 with the main takeaways of 2023.
This was a record year by many metrics, but equally importantly for me, it was also a year of significant progress in our strategy. Indeed, as we will see in greater detail in today's presentation, almost all of our main metrics hit a historical high, like sales, profit margin, and free cash flow generation with free cash flow conversion significantly above guidance. Among other highlights, we also continue to execute our value-creating M&A strategy with very satisfactory results, as illustrated by Wasco in the Netherlands, and we did that while maintaining a very healthy balance sheet. This performance allows us to continue to be a very shareholder-friendly company, and we are proposing today to maintain our cash dividend at last year's record level. All in all, there are many reasons for satisfaction as we look back at our 2023 performance.
The Rexel teams, once again, proved their ability to deliver profitable growth, and I would like to thank them for their engagement. What is particularly satisfying to me is that they achieved this in a more mixed environment in H2, where we faced a high 2022 comparable base with less of a booster from electrification categories. This is a great proof point of how resilient our model now is, benefiting from mid-term megatrends and delivering high profitability. This puts us on a very sound footing to achieve our medium-term ambitions. I will discuss this in the latter part of my presentation, but let's now focus, in the coming slides, on our 2023 key performance indicators that form the basis of our guidance. First of all, on slide 4, we set a new sales record in 2023.
Rexel's full year sales came in at EUR 19.2 billion, up from EUR 18.7 billion one year earlier, representing same-day sales growth of 4.3%. That's perfectly in line with the upgraded guidance we communicated of growth in the upper end of the initial 2%-6% range. This same-day sales growth benefited from several megatrends, notably electrification in Europe, more in H1 than in H2 as we will see later, and reshoring and stimulus plans in the U.S. Our growth led us to post-market share gains in many key markets, underscoring the strengths of our full-service value proposition and the advances we continue to make in the digitalization of our business. But what's also very satisfying is that the acquisitions we have made, which have all been smoothly integrated, are increasingly becoming a regular contributor to our growth and to value creation. Second key performance indicator: adjusted EBITA margin on slide 5.
Here too, we were at a record level of 6.8%, above last year's already record level of 6.7% once restated for the one-off gains in 2022. This is in the upper end of the upgraded guidance of between 6.6% and 6.9%. On a reported basis and excluding one-offs, it represents an improvement of 13 basis points driven by two main factors, firstly operational excellence, and secondly the accretive effect of our active portfolio management. And last but not least, free cash flow conversion on slide 6. As you see on the graph, our free cash flow before interest and tax also reached a record, just shy of the EUR 1 billion mark, demonstrating that the Rexel model is strongly cash-generating. This excellent performance was the result of tight discipline in managing working capital, whether it's for inventories in North America, credit across the group, or capital expenditures.
This translated into a conversion rate for our free cash flow before interest and tax of 73%, significantly above last year's 61%, and also way above our guidance of north of 60%. So all in all, we fully achieved the upgraded guidance we communicated at the end of H1, confirming that Rexel has made a step change in terms of profitable cash-generating growth. And with that, I will hand over to Laurent for a detailed look at our Q4 sales and 2023 results, and I will return afterwards to talk about our strategy and our first take on 2024.
Thank you, Guillaume, and good evening to all. Let's start on slide 8 with the different building blocks of our Q4 2023 sales performance. Our sales of EUR 4.7 billion were down 1.6% on a reported basis, notably impacted by an unfavorable 2.7% currency effect due to the variations of the US dollar and Canadian dollar versus the euro. The currency impact is expected to be close to zero for the full year 2024, assuming spot rates remain unchanged. In the quarter, our acquisition strategy translated into a positive contribution of 2.1% net of disposals that more than offsets the minus 1.1% actual-day sales decline. The acquisition effect is mainly related to the impact of the Wasco acquisition in the Netherlands, consolidated as of September 1st. Based on already announced operations, we anticipate now the full year 2024 scope impact to be close to 1.7%.
On slide 9, you see the selling price impact and the breakdown of our sales growth by geography. First, the 1.4% same-day sales decrease in Q4 included a broadly stable pricing contribution with non-cable selling price up +0.5%, offsetting copper-based cable price contribution of -0.4%. By geography, we saw good sales resilience in North America at +0.4%, while Europe and Asia-Pacific were down respectively -2.8% and -1.4%. I will detail Europe and North America in the next slides. So more specifically for Asia-Pacific, accounting for 6% of group revenue, our sales were down 1.4%, resulting from contrasting situations. Asia was broadly flat, improving compared to Q3 2023. China was helped by a favorable base effect due to strong COVID in Q4 2022, which offset the price deflation in industrial automation products from temporary oversupply.
Pacific was down 2.4%, largely due to New Zealand, a country representing less than 0.5% of group sales, but where sales were down almost 19% in a recessionary environment for the third consecutive quarter. Australia, on the other side, did well, up 1% in the quarter. Slide 10 focused on our performance in Europe. Our Q4 2023 same-day sales evolution was down 2.8%, mainly from challenging base effect in electrification, notably solar, with negative price and volume. Selling price remained positive on non-cable products overall, thanks to positive trends in our core products. You have all the details in the press release on a country-by-country basis, so I will just highlight the key evolutions of the quarter. By country, we recorded market outperformance in France, Germany, and Switzerland, and also in the Netherlands thanks to the Wasco acquisition. The situation remained subdued in Sweden and in the Netherlands, excluding Wasco.
By end-markets, the positive trends in industrial markets were mitigated by a lower demand in construction. On slide 11, we turn to our performance in North America, where same-day sales grew by 0.4% in Q4. Overall positive volumes were mitigated by deflation on commodity-related products and notably conduits, a situation comparable to Q3 2023. In the U.S., same-day sales evolved to -0.1%, with strong resilience in commercial buildings and industrial automation, as well as good backlog execution, driving growth in project activity. By region, we gained market share in Mountain Plains and Gulf Central. Canada saw robust same-day growth of +2.9%, driven by both commercial and industrial activities. On slide 12, we see that we continue to enjoy a strong level of backlogs, which bodes well for the coming quarters.
Similar to previous quarters, this shows the strong underlying demands reflected in greater order intake and good backlog execution. Let me illustrate this with our backlogs in the U.S. and Canada, which you see on the graph. As you know, backlogs represent a material part of the North American business at around 2.7 months of activity. This gives us some visibility for part of our business in the coming quarters. Moving to slide 13 to show the sales bridge for full year 2023 before moving to profitability. Our full year 2023 sales of EUR 19.2 billion were up 2.4% thanks to a positive portfolio management impact, with a net effect between acquisition and disposal of +0.5% and an actual day evolution of +4.2%. This more than offsets the negative -2.2% impact from Forex.
Zooming on the organic part, the 4.2% actual day growth is explained by a 2% volume contribution boosted by electrification, notably in H1, both in Europe and North America, a plus 3.2% non-cable price contribution with selling price on our core products more than offsetting the few pockets of deflation, and a minus 0.9% copper-based cable contribution, largely in North America. On slide 14, we show you now the building blocks that led to the record adjusted EBITA margin of 6.8% in 2023. Excluding the one-off gain of 66 basis points, we reported an adjusted EBITA margin of 6.7% in full year 2022. From that starting point, our adjusted EBITA margin has improved by 13 basis points to 6.8% from first, a positive impact of 16 basis points from portfolio management, notably resulting from the accretive effect of the Wasco acquisition and the disposal of our activities in Norway.
Second, a broadly stable evolution on a comparable basis that can be explained as follows: OpEx inflation had a negative impact, largely from salary inflation for -45 basis points and other costs for -34 basis points. The overall inflation stands at +3.9%, with 5.4% from wage increases and +2.3% from other OpEx, including billing and convenience, transportation, and lease. This inflation was more than offset by the +76 basis points positive impact from our action plans, and more specifically our operating leverage in H1 2023, driven by electrification and our internal pricing, as well as our productivity action plans in H2 2023 in a lower volume and pricing growth environment. By geography, Europe posted an adjusted EBITA of 7.2%, largely resulting from gross margin improvement and OpEx control broadly offsetting OpEx inflation.
North America, on the other side, posted an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.4%, coming from operating leverage and productivity gains that have mitigated OpEx inflation. Asia-Pacific improved significantly at 3% from internal actions in Asia and tight credit control. On slide 15, we look at the bottom line part of our P&L with a zoom on other income and expense, financial expense, tax rate, and recurring net income. Other income and expense to that -EUR 45 million and can be split as follows: -EUR 24.1 million from acquisition and integration cost and capital loss on disposal, -EUR 10.3 million from goodwill impairment, -EUR 12.9 million of restructuring cost, largely to support logistics transformation in countries where we opened automated supply chain solutions. Financial expense to that EUR 168 million, higher than last year, resulting from the rise in gross debt and interest rates.
It includes EUR 55.6 million of interest on lease liabilities and pure financial cost of EUR 112 million. The effective interest rate increased to 3.7% compared to 2.3% in 2022. For 2024, we anticipate financial expense of circa EUR 130 million, excluding one-offs and interest on lease liability in a context of rising interest rates and assuming current interest rate conditions remain unchanged. In addition, interest on lease liability should be close to EUR 65 million in 2024, adding Wasco full year impact, so a total of circa EUR 195 million of financial results expected for full year 2024. Our income tax rate is at 26.1%, broadly similar to the 25.7% in 2022, excluding one-offs. For 2024 onwards, we anticipate the tax rate to be slightly below 27%.
As a result, our recurring net income was EUR 823 million compared to EUR 912 million in 2022, but this amount had benefited in 2022 from a record high inflation tailwind on non-cable products. Moving to cash flow on slide 16, we generated robust cash flow before interest and tax, reaching EUR 996 million and free cash flow conversion of 73% above guidance. This record level of free cash flow generation resulted from our outstanding operational results combined with stable trade-working capital to sales at 14.1%. This has been achieved thanks to good inventory management in North America, tight credit control across the group, as well as good control on CapEx, standing at 0.8% of sales in line with 2022.
Also note that the change in non-trade-working capital was an outflow of EUR 104 million, significantly higher than last year, notably explained by the cash out of 2022 performance-linked bonus and commission, especially in Q4 of last year. As shown on slide 17, post-cash out of EUR 429 million from net interest paid and income tax paid, free cash flow after interest and tax reached EUR 568 million and was allocated as follows: a cash out of EUR 561 million from net financial investment, corresponding to the net effect between acquisition, notably Wasco, and the cash received from the disposal of Norway. We paid EUR 362 million in dividends related to 2022 results. We repurchased EUR 134 million of shares in 2023 to offset free share dilution and reduce the number of shares.
At the end of 2023, the number of shares to that 300.7 million versus 303.4 million in full year 2022. All this leads to an increase in net debt level of EUR 503 million, reaching EUR 1.9 billion, and we maintain a healthy balance sheet with an indebtedness ratio of 1.33 time. Let's turn to slide 18 to our balance sheet and liquidity picture. The year 2023 was very active in terms of financing. Let me share with you the main operations. First, we extended the maturity of circa EUR 600 million of receivable securitization in France and Canada and started a new program in Australia. They all have a 2026 maturity.
Second, on January 23rd, 2024, we signed a new senior credit agreement due January 29 with the following terms: the amount stands at EUR 700 million with a 5-year maturity with an option to extend it twice by 1 year. We kept our core banks in the banking pool. We moved from a leverage grade to a rating grade more in line with investment grade credits. Lastly, and as already shared in our Q3 presentation, we successfully issued in September a new sustainability-linked bond for EUR 400 million due 2030. With our strong balance sheet and liquidity close to EUR 1.5 billion, we have no short-term refinancing needs. On slide 19, we present our proposed dividend for 2023 financial year to be paid in 2024.
Rexel will propose to shareholders to maintain the dividend at the record EUR 1.20 per share paid last year, a level that is three times the amount paid in 2016. It remains, of course, subject to the approval of the annual shareholder meeting to be held in Paris on April 30th. This represents a payout ratio of 43% in line with our dividend policy. It offers a 5% yield based on today's share price. With this, let me now hand back to Guillaume to discuss our 2024 outlook and priorities.
Thank you very much, Laurent. I would now like to provide you with a quick status report on the advances we have made in our transformation journey through the Power Up 2025 plan. Indeed, those good 2023 results were not obtained by luck or happenstance, but through action plans, which allowed us to gain market share and improve underlying profitability. This is a satisfaction for the teams and also for the CEO, but more importantly, this gives comfort that we will continue to deliver in the future. Rexel has a clear ambition to be a tech-driven, best-in-class B2B distributor. As you see on slide 21, this rests on two main pillars: a solid digital organization and a state-of-the-art supply chain. We have made strong advances in 2023 in both areas.
Digital sales account for 28% of the total in 2023, a 4-point gain over 2022, and in line with our objective of 40% in 2025 with 7 countries already above this threshold. As for automated distribution centers, we had set a target of tripling them by 2025, and at the end of 2023, we had 9 automated DCs versus 6 one year earlier. Let's zoom in on those two pillars on the next two slides. As you see on the graph on slide 22, Rexel has been steadily ramping up on digital, and in Q4 of 2023, digital accounted for 30% of our total sales, 2 points above the average for the year, showing that the pace is even accelerating. In two key geographies, we have crossed symbolic thresholds with Europe now exceeding 40% of digital sales in Q4 and North America crossing the 20% barrier.
In fact, digital is becoming a way of life for our customers, and our strengthened online presence combined with our physical branch network gives Rexel a unique value proposition. In all European countries, for instance, our full range of products is available in D+1. The digital ramp-up is not just a self-driver that allows us to gain market share, but it's also a reservoir of efficiency and productivity for our operations. And with GenAI, we are going to make a new step change as it will allow us, for instance, to improve segmentation and customer targeting, to enrich our data, optimize our inventory, and further enhance productivity. Those are very exciting prospects. The second pillar of operational excellence is the supply chain, and on slide 23, we provide you with three examples of newly opened automated DCs.
Each fills a specific role within the country, and those projects are therefore a good sample of why we invest in our supply chain. In Germany, the new distribution center located around Frankfurt allows us to expand our footprint and add inventory capacity. In Austria, the automated DC solution increases customer proximity and raises our service level around Vienna. In the UK, it has allowed us to switch distribution models and improve customer delivery to D+1. In all three cases, we are targeting better service to our customers, therefore above market growth, and also operational efficiencies for ourselves. A second key element to be a best-in-class B2B distributor is to focus on fast-growing markets, as shown on slide 24. We are doing this in two ways. First, by positioning Rexel on electrification trends, where we aim to grow at twice the pace of our traditional electrical distribution business.
In 2023, I would say mission accomplished with growth of about 4.3 times in this segment. Second, by making acquisitions that position us in growth segments or in adjacencies that allow us to accelerate growth. We set a target of adding up to EUR 2 billion in sales through acquisitions over the 2022 to 2025 period, and midway through the plan, we are at the halfway mark with about EUR 1 billion in cumulative sales added since our Capital Markets Day in June 2022. Again, let's double-click on these in the next two slides. On slide 25, we take a closer look at the evolution of electrification trends over the past few years. This is an updated version of the same slide I showed last year.
What it highlights is how several drivers combined in the last three years to grow electrification: energy prices, government policies and incentives, corporate net-zero agendas, and reshoring trends. In the midterm, I see each one of those trends strengthening. I commented last year on the International Energy Agency scenarios, highlighting the fast growth of energy consumption in the next decade: photovoltaic panels, heat pumps, or EV chargers. Nothing has changed here, and we will benefit from this. What strikes me in particular is how strong corporate agendas among all drivers are now pushing ahead. This will drive the whole economy in the direction of accelerated electrification. Now, when it comes to 2024 specifically, we will have to face a high comparable base, especially in H1.
All drivers are still there and active, but what we have seen in the last few months on the market is a little bit of a wait-and-see attitude, especially when it comes to PV. So in summary, a clear midterm growth engine, but a little bit less visibility in the very short term. On slide 26, we look at our active portfolio management and more specifically our acquisitions, which have become a powerful growth engine in their own right. As you can see, since 2021 and through today, we have carried out a total of 11 acquisitions, acquiring in the process EUR 2.3 billion in sales. Those acquisitions have contributed on average 4% sales growth per year since 2021. These transactions represent either synergistic consolidations that grow our market share in our core electric distribution activities or growth in adjacencies that strengthen Rexel's portfolio in both Europe and North America.
They are positive from a financial standpoint, with EBITDA margin of the net acquired activities above group average, and a strategic one as we focus on fast-growing geographies and segments. We are very happy with those acquisitions, their timing, and the way their integration is taking place. Overall, the synergy ambitions that we have set have been exceeded. So these transactions materially enhance the group's growth and profitability profile and reinforce its capabilities to address the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition and electrification trends. All the elements I have described in the previous slides converge to deliver or even overdeliver the financial targets we have set, as you see on slide 27. I will not dwell long on this as we presented this in the introductory section, but there are two main messages I would like to share with you.
The first is that Rexel is perfectly on track to achieve the medium-term ambitions that we announced in 2022 at our capital market day. Our performance, both in 2023 and to date since the launch of the plan, is either fully in line or above target. That's the case, notably, with our same-day sales, where we set a compound annual growth rate of between 4%-7% on average over the 2021-2025 period, and to date, we are at 9.2%. The second message is that this metrics show that Rexel's upgraded model is profitable, cash-generating, and resilient. Meeting or exceeding our financial targets also allows us to achieve another ambition we have set out: to be a shareholder-friendly company. As shown on slide 28, we are not only fully in line with our medium-term ambition but have also made progress in 2023 versus 2022.
We said we wanted to pay out at least 40% of our recurring net income as dividends, and for 2023, as Laurent just mentioned, the dividend we are proposing of 1.20 EUR per share amounts to a payout ratio of 43%, above the 40% we distributed in 2022. We also said we intended to carry out a share buyback program of EUR 400 million over the 2022 to 2025 period, and we are halfway there at the end of 2023, up from 17% completed at the end of 2022. We will continue to implement our share buyback program with at least EUR 100 million in 2024, seizing the opportunity of what we consider is a low multiple of our share. So Rexel is clearly walking the talk. Let me now turn to our 2024 outlook.
Let me begin on slide 30 by painting the backdrop in which we will be operating. Overall, 2024 will be a bit of a mixed picture in our market. Commercial construction, which accounts for about 40% of our business, should be quite dynamic, notably in North America, even if some subsegments like office buildings will continue to feel the impact of interest rates. Industry, which is a bit under one-third of our exposure, will also see positive trends boosted by reshoring and stimulus plans in some countries. Residential renovation, which accounts for about 20% of our activity, will probably start to feel the impact of a slowing construction cycle, but this will be partly offset by energy renovation trends. New residentials, the remaining 10% of our exposure, will see continued weakness across Europe.
Let me also remind you that we will be facing a high comparable base on electrification categories in the first half, but this will ease as the year progresses. Conversely, we will continue to benefit from a tailwind from backlog execution in North America. Again, this backdrop, as you see on slide 31, Rexel plans to continue to deliver strong and resilient profitability, benefiting from the continued positive effects of our optimization plans. In my 2.5 years as a CEO, this has been the number one question in roadshows: can you maintain your EBITDA percentage level? H2 proved it, and 2024 will be another good data point. Indeed, Rexel has made a number of structural changes in the past couple of years that are paying off.
As I said, the improvement that was obtained through hard work and transformation, including a number of actions that we mentioned throughout today's presentation. First of all, active portfolio management to focus on growing and profitable segments or geographies. Second, continued digitalization, which boosts our efficiency and productivity. Third, the continued rollout of targeted value-added service to drive market share gains and volumes. Fourth, our continued ability to pass through inflation to prices. And finally, very strong cost and cash discipline, which has become a Rexel trademark with outstanding results this year. So our level of profitability is solidly established, and the good thing is that we can still progress from here as many levels are still insufficiently optimized, as you can read in the second part of the slide. This is exciting for me. This is exciting for the teams, and this should be exciting for you too.
So how does this translate into numbers? On slide 32, you see our full year 2024 outlook. Concerning top line, we anticipate stable to slightly positive same-day sales growth while facing a high comparable base in the first half. Concerning profitability, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to reflect the resilience I just highlighted at between 6.3% and 6.6%. And we expect to continue generating strong cash flow with a conversion rate of EBITDA into free cash flow before interest and tax above 60%. To close, I would like to tell you that I'm very proud of our 2023 results. Our strategy is paying off. Our transformation is delivering, and we are demonstrating it quarter after quarter. This is the reason why we are entering 2024 with appetite, conscious of the mixed environment, but also very sure of our strengths.
So in conclusion, our performance to date puts us in a very good place to achieve the 2025 ambitions that we presented in June 2022. These were encapsulated in the Power Up 2025 plan that is based on two main pillars: excelling on fundamentals on the one hand and striving to be a differentiated leader through a value-added offer on the other hand. Through our Power Up 2025 action plans, we have established a new baseline of performance, and we will continue to deliver superior service to our customers and superior return to our shareholders. We remain fully focused on these drivers, and the action plans that we have launched are proving very powerful as our 2023 performance highlights.
2025 is tomorrow, so it's time for us to update our strategic roadmap, and I'm pleased today to extend an invitation to all of you to join us in Paris on June 7th for a new capital markets day. We will, of course, provide you with full details in due course. For now, thanks for your attention, and Laurent and I are now happy to take your questions, and I'm sure there are many.
This is the conference operator, and we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. We will pause for a moment as callers are joining the queue.
The first question comes from Martin Wilkie with Citi. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Good evening. It's Martin from Citi. I had a couple of questions. The first one was on your pricing assumptions. So we can see that non-cable pricing is still positive in the fourth quarter. But when you're giving your revenue outlook for 2024, just how you're thinking about pricing for next year, obviously, there are some parts that could be a little bit negative, but it sounds like you're still quite confident that pricing overall can remain positive or at least not negative next year. So just the first question on pricing expectations. Thank you.
Okay, on this one, yes, you're right. You're right, Martin. On non-cable pricing, I will not talk about cable because the picture is quite clear on cable.
On non-cable pricing, as we have mentioned in a previous call, the bulk of our products is still in slight inflation mode. When we talk to suppliers, it's really what is announced, and I think what is going to be implemented, a few percent of sequential price increase. No clear carryover because most of the increases in last year were mostly at the beginning of the year, but sequential price increases of a few percent. That's for the bulk of our business. It represents more than two-thirds of our non-cable categories. There are a few categories which are probably going to be impacted by carryover negative pricing. I mean, you know them because we mentioned them before. Those would be photovoltaic panels on which we saw quite a drop in the second part of last year, which are going to have a carryover effect.
Those would be also piping in the U.S. where we saw also deflation, and that would be also automation in China. Those categories represent a little bit less than one-third, I mean, even less than that of our categories. So overall, yes, on non-cable, we anticipate to see positive pricing overall for the year, absolutely a few %.
Thank you. If I could just take a second question as well on your margin guidance. Obviously, it's a good, robust margin outlook given the revenue outlook could be flat. Could you let us know what you're assuming inside that? Obviously, wage inflation is presumably still something of a headwind for you, but it sounds like you have actions on productivity to offset that.
I mean, just if we sort of unpack how you're looking to get that level of profitability if revenue is close to flat, it seems like you do have a lot of plans in place to offset some of these OpEx inflation items.
No, absolutely. I mean, first of all, I think the right reference to look at margin evolution is probably more the H2 profitability of 6.4% because H1 was impacted by relatively high volume as well as by some inflation effects which were not restated as one-off because they were below our threshold of restating that. So H2 is a good reference to calculate from. From this reference, you're right that we are going to continue to see some cost inflation, but the cost inflation, in reality, is easing a little bit compared to what we have seen in 2023.
So our anticipation for wages is something around 3%-4%. And on global cost inflation, as far as we can see at this stage, is around 2%-3%. So there is going to be cost inflation, but it's going to be a little bit less than what we had to face this year. On the other hand, the price effect is probably, as I said just in the previous part of the question, going to be relatively low, even though positive. So we will have a difference to offset. And that, we have action plans in place in terms of productivity, in terms of optimization of the cost base, in terms of also pricing programs. All of that is contributing to offsetting, to some extent, the slight pressure, the slight erosion that we are going to get from this effect.
But overall, compared to the pictures that we had last year, I think we are going to see probably lower price effect but also lower inflation effect. So I think it gives a little bit more clarity on what the equation is in terms of EBITDA margin evolution for us.
Great. Thank you. That's very helpful.
The next question comes from Daniela Costa with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I'm only going to ask one, and it's going to be focused on free cash flow. And sort of when you look into 2024, do you still see some potential to destock inventories, or how should we think about working capital progression after the progress you've done in 2023? Thank you.
Yeah.
Our level of inventory in terms of number of days is broadly in line with what we had at the end of the year before, slightly higher because of some spot effects in Europe. But overall, we are in line. So there is no excess inventory in number of days. In total, in absolute value, we have reduced the level of inventory. Now, is there potential to reduce more? I mean, we are always very strict on cash control, on working on inventory, etc. Now, for the moment so two parts to the question. The first part is, is there potential to continue to reduce inventory, not substantially? I mean, we have done our job as the market was slowing down a little bit to reduce inventory.
Now, in terms of cash generation, I think we will hold to the guidance that we have given, which is the 60% cash conversion. But maybe, Laurent, you want to give one more guidance.
Yeah, yeah. There has been good work on the inventory. They are slightly up one day, but more phasing of a bit of slowdown in sales in Q4. Overall, good work. Tight control on receivable also. They are up one day, but it's mostly a cutoff issue with the end of December, the 29 being Friday. And overall, in our very good cash conversion of 74%, they are a bit linked to the slowdown in Q4 of around 6 points in that. So outside of that, we are still posting a very strong cash conversion this year. And well, we get for 2024 to be above 60%.
No, but what Laurent is mentioning is right.
I mean, we are very proud of the cash performance of the fourth quarter. That being said, there is a little bit of mechanical effect linked to the slowdown, as you have seen in distribution several times when distribution slows down. So I think we can solidly guarantee that we are going to be above 60% of cash conversion. I wouldn't promise that every year we are going to be at 73% or 74%.
Got it. Thank you.
The next question comes from Akash Gupta with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Good evening. I have two as well. The first one is on the building blocks for 2024 growth expectation of stable to slightly positive organic same-day.
So I see your growth in four electrification categories turned negative in Q4 and wondering if you can provide a split of what do you expect growth in these four categories in 2024 versus the traditional electrification business, and how does it stack by region? And the second question is more of housekeeping, that when we look at adjusted EBITDA next year in 2024, what are the below-the-line items between adjusted EBITDA and EBIT in terms of anything changing versus 2023 into 2024? I mean, you have given on interest and tax, but just wondering anything on PPA and restructuring that you can comment on. Thank you.
Yeah. I will let the second part of the question to Laurent with a lot of courage. But on the first one, let me explain maybe a little bit qualitatively and then maybe give a few figures on what's in the guidance.
First of all, electrification, as you understood from our discussion, is a sizable short-term uncertainty. Last year, when we issued the guidance, it was an uncertainty also, but clearly skewed to the upside. Here, we are starting the year in a different situation with a high comparison base, firstly, and also with public subsidies in many countries changing, which creates question marks and kind of a wait-and-see attitude from our customers. On what I would call the core business outside of electrification, we have seen a weakening in Europe, mostly in the last few months of the year. But we also know that the interest rate situation is probably at its peak, and that its reversal may provide good surprises in the back end of the year. We also may have good surprises in the U.S. with the execution of the backlog. That's not going to be a surprise.
That's a little bit mechanical, and the IRA kicking into full speed in several industrial sectors. So many moving parts. This is the reason why we went for qualitative guidance. Stable is the cautious version, around zero overall, including a negative contribution of electrification. Slightly positive is the optimistic version, and it means basically low single digits. We will update the guidance throughout the year to give you more numerical clarity. But what's really important is that it doesn't matter that much, as we are quite confident after this year, and especially H2, that we are able to deliver a high level of profitability whatever the scenario of the year. So maybe what would be useful is to remind you of what the contribution of electrification was last year quarter by quarter.
I think it was basically in Q1, 500 basis points, 300 in Q2, 100 in Q3, and negative or around zero in Q4, something like that. So now, what I cannot, I mean, that's a carryover in one way. What I cannot tell you is the additional electrification business because on a mid-term perspective, I am absolutely sure, and everything points in this direction, that those businesses are going to continue to grow at an accelerated pace. Now, as I said several times in previous calls, the road will be up but bumpy. So on the below-the-line items and the PPAs.
Yeah. On the more technical topics, the PPA increased quite significantly this year, mostly linked to the acquisition of Wasco, where we have intangible assets, especially customer portfolio that are amortized through the P&L. But it should stay at this level in absence of any larger acquisition in 2024.
And the below-the-line, there is the ongoing logistic plan, and then it's more a kind of reserve that we have. And I think you can count on around between EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million in terms of below-the-line items. A lot is not allocated yet.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Alexander Virgo with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Mr. Virgo, your line is open.
Good evening, gentlemen. Thanks very much for the question. I wondered if I could just dig a little bit into the trends in Europe. It looks like you've seen a pretty material deceleration Q on Q on the volume. So it looks like about a 500 basis point swing.
And I'm wondering if you can just give us a sense for how much of that is driven by solar or electrification more generally, how much of it was actually sort of the legacy business getting weaker, as you alluded to in the answer to one of your previous questions, and how we should think about that in terms of cadence and contribution from Europe over the coming 12 months given how tough the comps are in terms of contribution from electrification in the first half of 2023. Thank you.
Yeah. On the effect on Europe, I mean, first of all, remember that, yes, there is a, when you look at the comparison between Q3 and Q4, there is a strong base effect, especially on the electrification topic.
Remember that in Q4 2022, we had mentioned, I believe, in the press release that the contribution of electrification to growth in Europe had been 810 basis points. So it's a sizable hurdle to beat. We knew it would be very hard to beat, and that's especially the reason why we flagged it as from July. If you look at the Europe total volume effect of, I think, minus 4.2%, you have approximately, if you do the math, a little bit less than half of that, which is the impact of electrification on Europe because, as you know, electrification is bigger in terms of proportionally in Europe. So I hope it gives you a little bit of color.
But on the rest, it is true that Q4 saw a slowdown on top of that in a few markets, which is not unexpected as it is a mechanical way for the interest rates increases to have an impact and to cool down a little bit the economy. And as I mentioned in my initial remarks, we saw that in new construction. That's not a new thing. New construction, fortunately, we are not very exposed, but we saw a clear effect and a continued clear effect. And we started also to see some effect in the part of renovation, which is connected to home transactions, for example, or in some segments of commercial buildings, like, for example, office buildings. So we clearly saw a little bit of deceleration there.
Now, I didn't get completely the second part of the question, but I had the impression that it was a little bit about the phasing of all of that for next year and the comparison base for next year. And I would come back to what I just said about the electrification base effect because for the rest, it's going to be business as usual in reality. The electrification base effect is the only one which is very non-symmetrical between H1 and H2, much stronger in H1 than in H2. And I just gave the order of magnitude of the figure of how it contributed last year, so.
That's very helpful. Thank you, Guillaume. And I wondered if you could just touch maybe on a little bit of color as to how January starts given the exit rates more generally, obviously, a lot slower into the end of the year.
Yeah. So January is starting a little bit slow for two reasons. One is that it's a very high comparison base, once again. And the second one is that in Europe, we had a slow start of the year with what happens frequently in winter, which we had one-off events, I would call them, like snowy weather in several countries for a few days and farmer strikes here and there, perturbing a little bit the activity of our customers. So in North America, we saw slightly positive volumes picking up as the month progressed. And on the price side, slightly negative because of cable and PV panels, but positive if those two effects are neutralized.
So overall, fully in line with our scenario, with maybe a slower than what we would have wished start of the year in Europe, but mostly because of one-off effects and the market being a little bit slow to start, which happens from time to time in the first part of the year. And the beginning of February is proving slightly better. But that being said, I want expectations to be managed because of the base effect, it's very likely that Q1 is going to be negative.
Very helpful. Thank you.
That doesn't change anything. Oh, sorry. Alex, continue.
No, no, no. Sorry. I thought you'd finished. I was just saying thank you very much and have a good evening.
Oh, oh, oh, okay, okay, okay. No, no.
I was going to say that it's not because I just said that Q1 was likely going to be negative that it says anything about the guidance. I mean, the guidance integrates all of that.
Understood. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from William Mackie with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening. Congratulations. Good year-end and year. A couple of questions, probably more detailed. The first one, perhaps just conceptually, looking at the Asia-Pacific region, although it's the smallest, what would it take to get the whole business back up to returns that you see across the other two regions? I mean, is that even possible without a capital allocation plan of perhaps inorganic moves? That would be the first question.
And the second, maybe you've already scoped it, but can you qualify the size of the electrification business as you annualize revenues as you ended the year? I got dropped off the call, so I may have missed that.
Yeah. Well, easy questions for both of them. In terms of Asia-Pac, Asia-Pac, we are relatively happy. I mean, Asia-Pac is a tale of two stories. I mean, there is Asia, and there is Pacific. In Asia, it's mostly India and China. We are relatively happy with our performance in India and China this year. As you know, those countries are completely focused on industrial automation because we feel it's the wise thing to do to be really focused on the place where we add the most expertise and the most added value.
We have progressed well compared to the previous years where we had had a few bad debt issues, a few margin issues, etc. This year was fairly much a clean year despite the fact that China didn't restart as fast as what we would have liked it to be. But it was an okay year. I think in those two countries, we have the potential to go maybe to the profitability of the old Rexel, but maybe not to the average profitability of the new Rexel because, at the end of the day, what you're doing is a trade-off between high growth rates and those countries are extremely attractive in terms of growth rates and margins, which are a little bit under pressure. And that's life, and that's a capital allocation arbitrage. And we are fine with that. We can still progress, but I think we had a good year.
And then there is another part, which is Australia and New Zealand, on which we have those are part of the countries. I mean, when we talk about our potential to further enhance profitability in the future, we always mention that there are a few countries on which work is still in progress to bring them to the level of the rest of Rexel in terms of processes, in terms of supply chain, in terms of sales processes, in terms of pricing, etc. And we are doing that in those two countries with interesting progress, but we are not there yet. But in those two countries, we have the potential to get to the level of profitability that we have in other countries of Rexel. Now, how long will it take? I mean, it's always hard work to turn around a country. We are progressing.
We are on this path, and we saw interesting evolutions in 2023. I'm not ready to give a precise timeline on when Australia and New Zealand will be at the profitability of Rexel. On the second part, on the second question, electrification represents 23%, I believe, of our sales on the full year. What's very interesting, and I think I said that before, is that when we do that, for example, we count solar panels, mounting systems, inverters, batteries. But what we don't count is the electrical panel, which is necessary. We count EV chargers, but we don't count the dynamic management of energy that you need to put in place in a given building if you want to manage 100 or maybe not 100, but 50 charging stations.
So what's interesting in those categories is that those 23% probably carry with them a higher proportion of our business and will continue to increase in terms of the proportion of our business, which is exposed to that.
Super. Thanks for the qualification. Good evening.
The next question comes from Aurelio Calderón with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
H i. Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two, if I may, please. The first one is on I think you've talked about market share gains in some European countries. Can you talk about why you think you're gaining shares? Is it because you've got your DCs now in better place? And what is it? Is it because of your exposures, M&A? What's driving that?
And I think the second question would be around you've talked about the action plans giving you almost 80 basis points of kind of margin uplift this year. Could you talk about how much of that is operating leverage and how much is taking cost out or being more efficient, if possible? Thank you.
I will leave the second part of the question to Laurent because it's difficult, and so I will let him time to think about the answer. But on the first part, yes, it's true that we have seen market share gains in several countries. And it's a mix of several factors. You need to. It's not one recipe or else, it would be too simple. You need to have, first of all, the logistics right. You need to have the right assortment.
You need to have the right delivery promise to the customers because, at the end of the day, that's still the number one reason why they are buying from one distributor or from the other. And that's the reason why we are investing at accelerated pace in our distribution centers. That's one thing. But you also need to provide the right expertise because what's interesting is that year after year, we provide more expertise for our customers. We design solar systems for them. We audit their plants to audit the obsolescence of industrial automations, PLCs, etc., etc. There is an evolution in this direction where distribution is providing more and more services, and we have hundreds of services. And our plan is to talk a little bit more about that at the Capital Markets Day, but we are providing a value-added, which goes way beyond logistics and financing today.
When you do all that right and you also have the right digital tool and, more importantly, because at the end of the day, it's all about that, more importantly, the right people, you are able to gain market share. But I would say the right people is very much linked with all the rest. I mean, you attract the right people when you have all the right tools to serve the customer well. And there is a kind of virtuous circle in which you put all of those building blocks together, and then you enter into a positive spiral. And that's what we have been successfully able to do in several countries. And we really hope to be able to continue to do that in the future. The reason why we are not gaining market share is certainly because of price.
We are not buying market share, and it's not our intent to do that. Our intent is to earn it through service, through relationship, and through efficiencies provided to our customers because, at the end of the day, the customers, they want to be nice with us, but they want us also to improve their efficiency when we provide accelerated logistics, when we provide expertise, etc. That's what we are doing. We allow them to gain time and to focus the time of their valued installers to focus them on what they are good at and what they are paid for rather than doing side jobs that a distribution can do. I don't want to minimize our role and to say that we're only doing side jobs, but we see that as our mission to gain time for our customers and to facilitate their life.
And I think that's the reason why we are gaining market share. And I think that's the reason why we are confident with all the action plans that we are putting in place, that we may be able to continue to do so. Laurent, there was a question on where does the profitability improvement come from. Yeah, yeah. So we have good operating leverage in the first half, boosting by all those electrification trends, bringing volume and also good pricing. And we had the good, what you call, the operating leverage drops through on those. And in the second half, we start to be very cautious, having seen some first sign of base effect and lower top line. And we implemented some cost-saving action in order to protect the bottom line. So it's country-by-country work in Europe. When we start to be below certain level, we activate those plans.
It's discipline on cost. It's productivity. We are also helped by the action plan we have on digital, where, at one moment, we can improve the productivity on some level. And on the other side, we were able also to hold on our gross margins through a good pricing initiative and good level of rebates from our supplier as well.
That's very helpful. Thank you.
The next question comes from Nick Amicucci with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone. Just had a quick couple of just wanted to get a sense, order of magnitude, from what seems to be a step kind of a decline in the first half of the year to the second half of the year to arrive at that slightly positive, flat type of revenue cadence for 2024.
Then also wanted to kind of hone in a little bit further on kind of the solar exposure in Europe. I wanted to understand better how big of a market is the Netherlands for you, if at all, just because we've heard from some of the solar companies that just given the uncertainty leading up to the Dutch Congress on Tuesday, there was a significant slowdown in that market.
Yeah. I can take the second one. I'm not sure I understood completely the first one, but maybe Laurent understood it, and so he will be able to answer. On the second one, the solar business for us, it's approximately if I simplify, it's approximately EUR 1 billion business overall at worldwide level. And it's quite diversified in terms of country. The biggest one, surprisingly enough, would be the U.S.
Then you would have a bunch of countries between EUR 100 million and EUR 200 million. The biggest one of those countries would be Germany. Then you would have Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, France. But any individual country is not that big an exposure. I think Netherlands might be between EUR 100 million and EUR 150 million of solar solutions. And Netherlands, it's true, is one of those countries where we are seeing a wait-and-see attitude. So we'll see how the year unfolds. But there is no major exposure there in terms of one given country. And maybe to finish on that, say that in terms of inventory, because we sometimes have the question since the price of solar panels has dropped, I mean, first of all, you have seen that there was no meaningful effect in the EBITDA margin on that because we are extremely tight on inventory.
We try to manage as well as possible the inventory that we have and to negotiate with suppliers price clauses, which protect us. So basically, on inventory, I think solar must be EUR 150 million of solar panels, something like that, so a small level of inventory. Laurent, on the other part of the question. Yeah. The phasing of the sales between H1 and H2, as stated in the guidance, H1 2024 will face a more difficult base effect. I anticipate the trough to be reached in Q1 and to be slightly below where we are in Q4 of 2023. This performance will then improve throughout the year as mostly the base effect from electrification will ease. I think you mentioned it, but we have a contribution of the electrification of 560 bips in Q1, 310 in Q2, and 110 in Q3.
So it will be a help throughout the quarter. So it will be, as we have phrased it, a kind of backlogged sales profile.
Great. Thanks. And then if I can just fit one last one in because we did hear from a large competitor in the U.S. on Tuesday that they were seeing some issues in the stock and flow dynamic, specifically within their stock and flow dynamics within the U.S. relative to their more, I guess, systems-based or more longer lead-time projects. I just wanted to get a sense, are you guys seeing anything like that? It seems like you guys have done a slightly better job or, if not, a much better job of inventory management within the U.S., but just wanted to get a sense if you guys are seeing any pressures like that.
No, I will be very clear. No, we are not seeing that.
No, we are not seeing that at all. And I didn't analyze in detail the results and the control of this competitor, but we have not seen an effect like that. And as I told you, even at the start of this year, North America is still in positive territory and doing reasonably well, so.
Great.
The next question comes from Andre Kukhnin with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Can I just start with one on potential H1 versus H2 cadence for 2024? Taking into account what you said about the high base effect and some underlying slowdown, if we are in a scenario where you are going through a negative volume backdrop and potentially negative organic growth, do you think you can deliver margins in the range that you've guided for?
Probably towards the bottom end of the range in H1. In H2, probably in the top end of the range. I hate to give guidance by halves, but I just did it. It's not a guidance. Yes, we think that we can be around the bottom of the EBITDA guidance for the first half despite the fact that we are going to see headwinds in terms of base effect. Yes.
Thank you. I appreciate that. Those cost actions that you mentioned that you undertook in the second half, did they accelerate through the second half? Are you kind of stepping up further on these in 2024, or is that something that you did in Q4, and it's now sufficient?
No, we continue to push on that. We continue to optimize and to have optimization actions everywhere.
I will take an example, which was on the slide. When we did a distribution center in the U.K., we took advantage to optimize the network because it was, before hub and spoke, a way of organizing the logistics with many branches involved in logistics. Now, we are able to optimize a little bit that and either to take people out or to refocus them on more value-added tasks. That's the kind of things that we are doing. We are doing that a little bit everywhere on a continuous basis. It's not because, at the end of the day, the market is still relatively good. The level of activity is still relatively good. So I think it's an ongoing optimization that we are progressing with since three years. And so if needed, we can accelerate.
If the volumes drop, then we will accelerate that. But for the moment, we are steadily implementing our cost-reduction plans.
Thank you. And if I may, just last one because I've not had too much of a chance to go through all the numbers, and I haven't seen the full slide deck. But if we just look at your gross margin evolution in the second half, year-over-year, we see down 50 basis points. And I think there was a one-off in the comparable period in the second half of 2022. Could you just walk us through kind of a gross margin bridge? What happened year-over-year there in terms of the one-off effect versus the underlying?
Yeah. In 2022 and in 2021 also, we have this one-off gain on very high inflation on inventory that we can sell at we can buy at a lower price.
And this is a one-off that disappeared in 2023 and was present in both H1 and H2. And that needs to be restated when you look at the comparison. So on a full-year basis, on the EBITDA margin, it's on the EBITDA margin, it's 66 basis points. It's more around 90 basis points on the gross margin. And then we have additional cost to make this 66 basis points on a full-year basis. And the impact is about the same between H1 and H2.
Okay. So we split it. I'll say it's 90 basis points per half. So the nominal total gross margin went down by 50 basis points. But if we take 90 basis points one-off, it was actually up 40. Is that right?
No. The EBITDA is dropping on a full-year basis by 66 basis points. And this is something like 90 basis points.
The one-off is 90 basis points in the gross margin and the difference in additional OpEx to reach the 66 basis points because on this additional gross margin one-off, we had also additional OpEx, mostly the incentive of the sales guys.
Okay. Great. I think I've got all the inputs. I'll go back to the model. Thank you very much for your time.
The next question comes from Alasdair Leslie with Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the question. Good evening. So just a follow-up on the incremental pricing in 2024, the comment you made there earlier. I think you said that could be a few points, I think. I just wondered if we could confirm that was the message.
It sounds reasonably high to me just given the trends in 2023, but maybe that was a kind of a gross number before some of the sort of deflationary categories. And then maybe some more color on your visibility there, please. What kind of price increases have you already kind of been pushing through, perhaps? And what kind of conversations have you had with your suppliers?
Yeah. Sure. I don't want to be. That's a good opportunity to correct what I said when I said a few points because a few points can be high. Basically, what we are there are three categories. There is cable. There is what we call commodities. And there is the non-commodities. Cable, it represents 17% of our mix overall. You've seen the pricing evolution. We are starting the year in slightly negative territory. And it will depend on the copper price, basically.
On the commodities part, we have a carryover effect, which is linked to a few categories that I mentioned, which are piping, solar panels, etc. That represents, I would say, something like 12%-14%. Yeah. Something like a little bit less than 15% of our business also. And here, we are going to have a slightly negative carryover effect. On all the rest of the categories, we are seeing price increases announced by the suppliers that we are pushing. And the range is usually 1%-2%. Sometimes it goes up to 4%. But I think the median is probably between 1% and 2%, something like that. Now, how much is going to be realized, I don't know. But that's a little bit what we are seeing.
Great. Thanks. Thanks very much.
And maybe just a quick follow-up question, just a confirmation on the margin guidance. Are there any kind of effects from portfolio management kind of baked into your assumptions for 2024? Is it effectively sort of all organic?
Not meaningful. Not meaningful, no. We are going to have a full year of Wasco, but it was pretty much at the profitability of the group. So it's not going to be meaningful, no.
Great. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Miguel Borrega with BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two. The first one just on the growth guidance, just revisiting your comments. So just based on the exit rate of Q4, negative organic growth in Europe, flatish in North America, I'm just wondering where you find comfort on positive growth in 2024.
You already mentioned you expect negative growth again in Q1. But why wouldn't volumes continue to decelerate at the current exit rate? And then on pricing, again, with no carryover in 2024, and if you weren't able to raise prices in the second half of 2023, what gives you the confidence you can in 2024 without losing further volumes? That's the first question.
That were two questions, Miguel. On the first one, it's mostly a question of base effect. We are talking about electrification. And electrification was a strong contributor in the first two, and even three quarters of 2023. As I said at the beginning of the call, this base effect is going to slow down.
Even if you make the assumption, which I wouldn't make, but if you make the assumption that electrification categories are going to remain stable, you're going to see an improvement throughout the year. That's mostly what we are talking about. When you look at the -1.4%, as we mentioned, there is a negative component of electrification in there. That's one thing. I think we mentioned also the fact that in the U.S., we have a backlog to execute. Overall, I think that's what bases our assumptions for the year. There is no mystery. It's not projecting a strong recovery of the economy in the world. It's just projecting us doing our job and, at the same time, the base effect mechanically decreasing throughout the year. On the pricing side, the price increases at the beginning of the year.
That's as simple as that. We experienced 2 years in 2021 and 2022 where we had several price increases a year. But in 2023, just like in 2024, we went back to a more normal situation where we usually have a price increase through the year. So it's just normal that you would see more sequential price increases at the beginning of the year than in H2. So the reason why we are confident with that is, I mean, we have the price announcement of our suppliers. We know what they want to do. I mean, you can ask them the question during their calls. Maybe they're going to have a different vision. But for the moment, that's what they are doing.
The reason why they are doing that is also because their own costs in 2023 have increased, especially for the more technical stuff where there is a high content in salaries and wages. They have experienced inflation, and they have to push it to the market. So, as you know, we have a good track record in terms of transferring that to the market. So I think our assumption, both in volume and in price, are fairly reasonable. And I'm very comfortable with that. I mean, we are not projecting anything spectacular in terms of market evolution but just a continuation of what we are seeing in the market right now.
Okay. Thank you. Then just maybe following up on that and going to the gross margin, can you maybe talk about if you've had any impact on supplier volume rebates on the gross margin?
And then if you had none, what then explains the gross margin contraction? I mean, I presume your pricing now is below that of your suppliers. So how do you see gross margins evolving in 2024? I'm just trying to understand why would the second half of 2024 you would see a sequential margin increase versus the first half. What are you essentially expecting in terms of the gross margin versus SG&A?
So maybe a few comments on your question. First of all, on the supplier rebates, no, we have not seen any specific impact. It's the job of a distributor to make sure that the supplier rebates stay at a good level. And I think we have managed to do that. And we will continue to manage to do that.
In terms of gross margin evolution between the first part and the second part of the year, I think I mentioned that in my introductory remarks. In the first half of 2023, we had a slight inventory effect, which is what we restate in one-offs when it exceeds a certain threshold. But we don't restate it in one-offs when it's below that threshold. And because we had sequential price increases in the first half of the year, we had this effect. On the rest, we are experiencing some kind of price pressure from our customers. But we are transferring that because it's our job as a distributor to the suppliers. And we're doing a good job at doing that. So I think that's for the first part of the question. The second part, I think, was about my comments on the EBITDA margin between H1 and H2.
It's mostly about volume. There is a drop-through effect. When you have higher volume, you have a drop-through effect on the EBITDA margin at the end of the day because you absorb the fixed cost a little bit better. That's as simple as that. So that's the reason why we feel that because the volume situation, because of everything that we discussed, is going to be a little bit tougher in H1 than in H2, we may have a margin a little bit more under pressure in H1 than in H2. I hope it's clear, Miguel.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question is a follow-up from William Mackie with Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for that question. Just one. Could you walk through your assumptions around development for SG&A expense, maybe by region or for the group, as you go into 2024 versus 2023?
I mean, what sort of inflationary headwind will you be facing from elements such as the transportation, distribution, and wage elements?
Maybe, Laurent, you can give orders of magnitude?
Yeah. Yeah. We don't give it by region. But overall, for 2024, on the pay rise, we expect to have something around 3%-4%, a bit less than what we experienced in 2023. And for the rest of the cost, which are mainly building and occupancy, delivery, vehicle, packaging, and so, we are in the range of 3%, slightly below, between 2%-3% depending on the region.
Super. Excellent.
Overall, there is no category which is outstanding. I mean, for all categories, we are going to be in this ballpark, basically, we think.
Thanks a lot.
Mr. Texier, there are no more questions registered at this time.
No. Thank you very much.
We will see you. We will talk to you in the Q1 turnover conference call. Hopefully, we will see you at the Capital Markets Day, at least a big number of this group, to talk a little bit more about strategy and about the road going forward after this good year of 2023. Thank you very much. Have a good evening.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.